Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- Anaheim Angels By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the Anaheim Angels did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 835 787 Runs allowed 811 783 Run Margin 24 4 Wins 83 85 Pythagorean wins 83 81 Placement 2nd(t) 2nd The Angels hit their high-water mark on September 6th when they ended that day with a 79-64 record and a 3 1/2 game lead over the second-place Rangers. They entered their traditional end of the year swoon after that, going 6-13 (including five losses to the Rangers) to finish with the kind of second-place record we thought they'd up end with back in April. Were it not for a very crowded disabled list, the Angels could very well have been one of the surprise teams of the year. Key Position PlayersAnaheim scored 48 fewer runs than we predicted. Most of this was caused by a series of injuries to key players, most notably the failure of Todd Greene's shoulder to recover from off-season surgery. Part of the offensive decline can also be blamed on the renovations to the Edison International Field of Anaheim. In 1997, their home park was average; in 1998, it reduced scoring by 5%, making it the third-best pitchers' park in the AL. Matt Walbeck, C, age 28 (on 7/1/98)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 128 32 4 0 1 13 12 0 7 0 21 1 1 .250 .287 .305 .591 10 Prorated ANA 358 89 11 0 3 36 34 0 20 0 59 3 3 .250 .287 .305 .591 29 Actual ANA 338 87 15 2 6 41 46 2 30 0 68 1 1 .257 .317 .367 .684 40 Came over in the same off-season deal with the Tigers that included Phil Nevin and assumed the bulk of the catching duties when Todd Greene went down. He hit better than we thought he would, but among contending teams in the AL, only Cleveland got less offense from the catcher's spot than the Angels. Phil Nevin, C, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 168 43 10 0 8 22 25 2 16 0 43 0 0 .256 .328 .458 .786 25 Prorated ANA 236 60 14 0 11 31 35 3 22 0 60 0 0 .256 .328 .458 .786 36 Actual ANA 237 54 8 1 8 27 27 5 17 0 67 0 0 .228 .291 .371 .662 25 Considered a backup outfielder when acquired from the Tigers during the off-season, he ended up sharing catching duties with Matt Walbeck. Perhaps the increased defensive demands on him contributed to a disappointing year at the plate. On the other hand, since his 1998 numbers were not much worse than what he posted with the Tigers in 1997, our expectations might have been unrealistic. Todd Greene, OF/1B, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 432 124 24 0 35 67 87 4 24 7 70 4 2 .287 .328 .586 .913 80 Prorated ANA 68 20 4 0 6 11 14 1 4 1 11 1 0 .287 .328 .586 .913 13 Actual ANA 71 18 4 0 1 3 7 0 2 0 20 0 0 .254 .274 .352 .626 7 He looked like a potential All-Star catcher after a great 1997 season (he tore up the AAA and then hit 9 homers in 124 at-bats with the Angels). Instead, he never recovered from off-season shoulder surgery, did not catch a game all year, and hit poorly when he returned in August. While his career behind the plate is now over, he might be able to contribute next season as a DH. Darin Erstad, 1B/LF, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 589 170 32 4 16 104 74 3 57 4 89 20 10 .289 .351 .438 .789 94 Prorated ANA 527 152 29 4 14 93 66 3 51 4 80 18 9 .289 .351 .438 .789 84 Actual ANA 537 159 39 3 19 84 82 6 43 7 77 20 6 .296 .353 .486 .839 96 Was having a better than expected season until missing almost all of September with a hamstring injury. His absence down the stretch was one of the factors behind the Angels late-season fade. If Jim Edmonds is traded as rumored, Erstad might make the the unusual defensive shift from first-base to center-field. This won't be as difficult a move as it seems, however, since Erstad came to the majors as a centerfielder and has excellent speed. Cecil Fielder, 1B/DH, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 566 138 20 0 31 70 97 7 80 8 138 0 0 .244 .341 .443 .785 86 Prorated ANA 377 92 13 0 21 47 65 5 53 5 92 0 0 .244 .341 .443 .785 57 Actual ANA 381 92 16 1 17 48 68 3 52 1 98 0 1 .241 .335 .423 .757 52 Actual CLE 35 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 13 0 0 .143 .189 .171 .361 1 Actual TOT 416 97 17 1 17 49 68 4 53 1 111 0 1 .233 .324 .401 .725 52 The only surprise here was that the Angels decided to cut him loose with two months to go in the season. We thought he'd have a little more power than he showed but for the most part, we expected his skills to continue to erode and, except for a strong June (9 HRs and 29 RBIs), they did. One of Anaheim's big off-season acquisitions and a good reason why they weren't picked to improve upon their 1997 record. Justin Baughman, 2B, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual ANA 196 50 9 1 1 24 20 1 6 0 36 10 4 .255 .277 .327 .603 17 We didn't do a projection for him, as he hadn't played above A prior to 1998. He'd stolen a lot of bases but not hit particularly well in three professional seasons prior to this one. Converted from shortstop to second base in spring training, he got an opportunity to play when Velarde went down in May. His hitting tailed off after getting struck in the face by a line-drive on June 6th, and he lost his job when Velarde returned in early August. Was considered the front-runner for the 1999 starting job before fracturing his leg in the Mexican League. Randy Velarde, 2B, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 443 120 23 2 9 63 42 5 60 0 94 5 5 .271 .362 .393 .755 66 Prorated ANA 193 52 10 1 4 27 18 2 26 0 41 2 2 .271 .362 .393 .755 29 Actual ANA 188 49 13 1 4 29 26 1 34 0 42 7 2 .261 .375 .404 .779 29 Elbow problems caused him to miss most of the season. He played as well as expected while he was in the line-up. A free-agent following the season, he may be back in the Angels' plans following Baughman's injury. Gary DiSarcina, SS, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 538 132 27 3 3 55 44 3 18 0 34 6 5 .245 .272 .323 .595 43 Prorated ANA 558 137 28 3 3 57 46 3 19 0 35 6 5 .245 .272 .323 .595 45 Actual ANA 551 158 39 3 3 73 56 8 21 0 51 11 7 .287 .321 .385 .706 66 DiSarcina was a slight surprise at the plate in 1998, as he had the second best year of his career (next to his injury and strike-shortened 1995 season). While his average improved quite a bit, his peripheral numbers (walks and power) remained poor. Dave Hollins, 3B, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 565 146 27 1 14 94 77 11 75 4 125 10 6 .258 .354 .384 .738 80 Prorated ANA 360 93 17 1 9 60 49 7 48 3 80 6 4 .258 .354 .384 .738 51 Actual ANA 363 88 16 2 11 60 39 7 44 2 69 11 3 .242 .334 .388 .723 51 Before he went down with a rotator cuff injury, he had hit as well as we'd expected. He had a clause in his contract requiring the Angels to pay him $1.9 million in 1999 if he had 377 plate appearances last year. He made it with 41 to spare. His days as a regular are probably over, but may play quite a bit next year if Glaus doesn't hit as expected. Troy Glaus, 3B, age 21AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual ANA 165 36 9 0 1 19 23 0 15 0 51 1 0 .218 .280 .291 .571 14 No projection because 1998 was his first professional season. Hit 35 home runs in 109 games at AA and AAA (earning the Howe Sportsdata Minor League Player of the Year award in the process) before taking over third-base chores for the Angels in August. Didn't hit particularly well over the last two months, but should play regularly (and hit better) in 1999. Garret Anderson, RF, age 26 (on 7/1/98)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 592 175 33 2 11 73 83 1 28 5 75 8 5 .296 .326 .414 .740 74 Prorated ANA 621 184 35 2 12 77 87 1 29 5 79 8 5 .296 .326 .414 .740 78 Actual ANA 622 183 41 7 15 62 79 1 29 8 80 8 3 .294 .325 .455 .780 89 Showed a little more power in 1998 (and posted his highest slugging percentage since his rookie season) but he has yet to fulfill the promise of that 1995 campaign. Given his poor command of the strike-zone, he's got to continue to increase his power numbers if he's going to be a better than average right-fielder. Jim Edmonds, CF, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 604 174 34 2 33 102 96 5 65 4 117 4 4 .288 .360 .515 .875 113 Prorated ANA 587 169 33 2 32 99 93 5 63 4 114 4 4 .288 .360 .515 .875 110 Actual ANA 599 184 42 1 25 115 91 1 57 7 114 7 5 .307 .368 .506 .874 108 As predicted, he had another fine season in 1998. The changes to the ballpark might have cost him his second 30+ homer season, as 16 of his 25 home runs were on the road. Tim Salmon, DH/RF, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ANA 530 152 26 2 28 84 100 5 86 5 121 6 6 .287 .388 .502 .889 108 Prorated ANA 478 137 23 2 25 76 90 5 78 5 109 5 5 .287 .388 .502 .889 98 Actual ANA 463 139 28 1 26 83 88 3 90 5 100 0 1 .300 .410 .533 .943 110 Ligament problems forced him to play in pain most of the season, causing him to shift from his normal right-field position to DH. Despite this, he had a wonderful season at the plate and further solidified his claim as the best player in history (well, since 1933) to be never named to an All-Star team. Key PitchersThe pitching staff gave up 28 fewer runs than we thought they would, an extraordinary accomplishment considering the injuries to their starting rotation. It seems that whenever a Ken Hill, Jack McDowell or Allen Watson would go down, someone unexpected (Steve Sparks? Jarrod Washburn?) would step in and pitch better than the man they were replacing. Of the five members of the rotation at the beginning of April, only Finley would not be replaced due to injury or ineffectiveness. With all of the shuffling that took place in the rotation, Finley emerged as the staff leader in victories with eleven. The Angels thus join the 1987 St. Louis Cardinals as the only teams in baseball history to win 85 or more games in a season without having at least one 12-game winner on their staff. Chuck Finley, Starter, age 35Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ANA 4.10 32 32 13 10 0 209 203 24 86 191 .257 Prorated ANA 4.10 35 35 14 11 0 227 221 26 94 208 .257 Actual ANA 3.39 34 34 11 9 0 223 210 20 109 212 .246 There were question marks surrounding Finley at the start of this year: he was thirty-five years old and recovering from a broken wrist that had prematurely ended his 1997 season. He also had won his last ten decisions, a streak he would push to a team-record 14 before losing to Detroit in May. He pitched somewhat better than we expected, although 13 unearned runs helped make the difference seem greater than it was. He was better at keeping the ball in the yard than in past seasons, and in this he may have benefited from the changes to the Angels' home park. Omar Olivares, Starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ANA 5.09 4 4 1 2 0 23 26 3 10 13 .289 Prorated ANA 5.09 31 31 8 15 0 178 201 23 77 101 .289 Actual ANA 4.03 37 26 9 9 0 183 189 19 91 112 .270 After a dreadful spring training (10.24 ERA), he was relegated to the bullpen at the start of the season. Only the injury to McDowell got him back into the rotation, but after that he surprised both us and the Angels by pitching his best ball in six years. He had an 8.38 ERA and a 0-5 record in July, but went 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA in the other months. Jason Dickson, Starter, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ANA 4.88 32 32 10 12 0 192 217 26 59 107 .287 Prorated ANA 4.88 21 21 7 8 0 126 142 17 39 70 .287 Actual ANA 6.05 27 18 10 10 0 122 147 17 41 61 .303 A surprise All-Star in 1997, Dickson started slowly and after 5 starts had a 9.12 ERA. Relegated to the bullpen, he started to pitch effectively, made it back to the starting rotation, and soon found himself with a seven-game winning streak. It was all downhill after that and by August the former Rookie Pitcher of the Year was back in the minors, farmed out to make room for Mike Fetters. He pitched well in middle relief following his recall in September and that might be his future role. In 20.2 innings of relief last year, Dickson allowed only ten hits, two walks and two runs. His ERA while starting was 7.11. Ken Hill, Starter, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ANA 4.14 32 32 11 10 0 194 193 19 83 121 .262 Prorated ANA 4.14 18 18 6 6 0 107 106 10 46 67 .262 Actual ANA 4.98 19 19 9 6 0 103 123 6 47 57 .311 Signed to a large 3-year contract last November, Hill suffered through an injury-plagued 1998 campaign. He started quickly and his record stood at 6-1 with a 3.16 ERA on May 10th. Ten days later, he threw 146 pitches while winning his 7th game; shortly after that, he started complaining of a tired arm. Subsequent elbow problems would sideline him for nearly two months and he would win only 2 more games after that night in May. Jack McDowell, Starter, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ANA 4.67 32 32 10 11 0 193 205 25 68 151 .274 Prorated ANA 4.67 13 13 4 4 0 77 82 10 27 61 .274 Actual ANA 5.09 14 14 5 3 0 76 96 11 19 45 .311 Another casualty of the starting rotation, McDowell was on pace for a season much like the one we had predicted for him (4.76 ERA in seven starts) when he went on the DL with elbow problems. He returned in August, pitched well for a couple of starts before the pain in his elbow returned. By the end of the season, he was considering retiring from the game. Allen Watson, Starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ANA 5.21 27 27 8 10 0 161 171 28 62 107 .274 Prorated ANA 5.21 16 16 5 6 0 96 103 17 37 64 .274 Actual ANA 6.04 28 14 6 7 0 92 122 12 34 64 .323 Watson was another of the Angels' original rotation to hit the DL. After an ineffective couple of starts, he went on the shelf with tendinitis in May. He was due to come back in early July when he required six stitches and an extra two weeks on the sidelines due to a mishap opening a bottle of beer. By August, he had been removed from the rotation and was used sparingly in relief over the last month and a half. Steve Sparks, Starter, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual ANA 4.34 22 20 9 4 0 129 130 14 58 90 .263 We didn't expect him to play in the majors this season. Sparks missed all of last year with reconstructive elbow surgery and only got an opportunity to pitch when three Angel starters (Ken Hill, Jack McDowell and Allen Watson) went on the DL. An 0-8 pitcher in AA and AAA prior to his call-up, Sparks was a pleasant surprise (to say the least) for the Angels. Jarrod Washburn, Starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual ANA 4.62 15 11 6 3 0 74 70 11 27 48 .248 Another pitcher who filled in nicely when other starting pitchers went down with injuries. At the close of the season, he had a lower career ERA in the majors than he had at either AAA (4.80 ERA in 105 innings) or AA (4.72 in 286 innings). Troy Percival, Closer, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ANA 2.18 70 0 6 3 45 78 48 8 31 102 .176 Prorated ANA 2.18 64 0 5 3 41 71 44 7 28 93 .176 Actual ANA 3.65 67 0 2 7 42 67 45 5 37 87 .186 His control was worse than it's been in the past, but the big mystery is how Percival managed to hold opponents to a .186 batting average and still allow 31 runs in 67 innings. Reported in early September that he had been pitching with some shoulder soreness. Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Middle Relief, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ANA 4.48 27 4 3 3 0 62 64 8 23 45 .267 Prorated ANA 4.48 40 6 4 4 0 93 95 12 34 67 .267 Actual ANA 3.14 61 0 8 3 5 97 86 14 32 73 .241 It's a tricky business trying to predict how Japanese pitchers will develop. How do we account for the six seasons he pitched in Japan prior to joining the Angels last season? In retrospect, we missed the boat on this one. During his first season with Anaheim, he made a handful of ineffective starts prior to settling into his role as a middle reliever. Used exclusively in relief during 1998, he basically repeated his performance of a year earlier. Mike James, Middle Relief, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ANA 3.88 70 0 4 3 2 72 68 5 33 59 .252 Prorated ANA 3.88 12 0 1 1 0 13 12 1 6 10 .252 Actual ANA 1.93 11 0 0 0 0 14 10 0 7 12 .208 Slated to be the setup man for the Angels in 1998, Mike James tore a muscle in his right forearm in May and was done for the season. OutlookIn a lot of ways, the Angels were very lucky to have finished second last season. Their pitching, which was the best in their division in 1998, could have just as easily fallen apart had it not been for the surprising performance of players like Omar Olivares and Steve Sparks. Obviously, the team will look very different by the next opening day, and it's still too early in the off-season to evaluate what they haven't done yet. One thing they have done is sign Mo Vaughn to play first base, so the Angels are now able to move Erstad to center and deal Edmonds for some needed pitching. Signing Vaughn is a great move, but I'm not sure why the Angels seem so desperate to unload Jim Edmonds. It would make more sense to move Anderson and DiSarcina, two players with reputations that seem to far exceed their talent, than their star center-fielder. Copyright © 1998. Diamond
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