1998 Post-Season Review -- Arizona Diamondbacks

By Tom Tippett
December 4, 1998

This article takes a look at how the Arizona Diamondbacks did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            719      665
Runs allowed        843      812
Run margin         -124     -147
Wins                 70       65
Pythagorean wins     68       65
Placement           5th      5th

About a year ago, when the expansion draft was being held, and Jerry Colangelo was spending big bucks on free agents (Matt Williams, Jay Bell), some speculated that Arizona might be the first team in history to challenge for a playoff spot in their inaugural season. Our spring projections didn't support that optimistic outlook, as we projected them to finish last in the division, albeit with a very respectable record (70-92) for an expansion team.

Early in the season, it looked as if they would be hard-pressed to win a third of their games, but a strong second half (35-39 after the break) brought them to within 5 games of the expected number.

Key Position Players

The D'backs produced a little less offense than we predicted, with the shortfall spread among several players. Andy Fox was the only everyday player to have a career year, while several others (Lee, Garcia, Fabregas, Williams) fell a little short of expectations. They tried to address some disappointing performances by their outfield prospects (Brede, Benitez) by picking up Bernard Gilkey in a trade with the Mets, but Gilkey didn't do much either. They should be better offensively next year, provided their young players continue to develop and Matt Williams can avoid the nagging injuries that plagued him in 1998.

Kelly Stinnett, C, age 28 (on 7/1/98)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI  64  15  3  0  3  10  10  2   8  0  17  0  0  .234  .333  .422  .755  10
Prorated   ARI 271  64 13  0 13  42  42  8  34  0  72  0  0  .234  .333  .422  .755  41
Actual     ARI 274  71 14  1 11  35  34  6  35  3  74  0  1  .259  .353  .438  .791  42

We thought Stinnett would be in a backup role, but he was given a lot more playing time when Fabregas failed to hit. Offensively, Stinnett contributed a little more than expected, thanks mainly to a career high batting average.

Jorge Fabregas, C, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI 557 148 18  1  8  46  67  2  30  3  68  1  2  .266  .302  .345  .647  54
Prorated   ARI 154  41  5  0  2  13  19  1   8  1  19  0  1  .266  .302  .345  .647  15
Actual     ARI 151  30  4  0  1   8  15  1  13  1  26  0  0  .199  .263  .245  .509  10
Actual     NYN  32   6  0  0  1   3   5  0   1  0   6  0  0  .188  .212  .281  .493   2
Actual     TOT 183  36  4  0  2  11  20  1  14  1  32  0  0  .197  .255  .251  .506  12

He didn't hit in Phoenix, and he didn't hit in New York, either. He's never been a league-average hitter in any respect, but he's never been a bad hitter, and the D'backs had every right to expect a lot more from him in 1998.

Damian Miller, C, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI  69  18  3  0  2   7  11  1   4  0  12  0  1  .261  .307  .391  .698   8
Prorated   ARI 168  44  7  0  5  17  27  2  10  0  29  0  2  .261  .307  .391  .698  19
Actual     ARI 168  48 14  2  3  17  14  2  11  2  43  1  0  .286  .337  .446  .783  26

Made a nice contribution in his second season of action. Debuted in 1997 with 66 AB at age 27, so unless he's a late bloomer, it's hard to imagine that he'll become much more than a second catcher.

Travis Lee, 1B, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI 588 150 29  3 42  89 102  5  70  6 121  5  0  .255  .338  .529  .867 101
Projection ARI 558 142 28  3 40  84  97  5  66  6 115  5  0  .255  .338  .529  .867  96
Actual     ARI 562 151 20  2 22  71  72  0  67  5 123  8  1  .269  .346  .429  .775  85

His very brief professional career made it very difficult to make a good projection, but after looking at how he tore through the minor leagues, we chose to run with our numbers anyway. He had a .284 average and 17 homers at the all-star break, but tailed off in the second half, possibly due in part to a groin injury that landed him on the DL in July.

Andy Stankiewicz, 2B, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI  64  14  4  0  0   7   5  1   6  1  13  1  1  .219  .292  .281  .573   6
Prorated   ARI 132  29  8  0  0  14  10  2  12  2  27  2  2  .219  .292  .281  .573  12
Actual     ARI 145  30  5  0  0   9   8  2   7  0  33  1  0  .207  .252  .241  .493   9

One of several players Arizona tried at 2B this year. He wasn't expected to do much, and he didn't surprise.

Tony Batista, 2B/SS/3B, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI 571 142 31  4 15  77  68  5  43  0 105  8  6  .249  .305  .396  .701  67
Prorated   ARI 290  72 16  2  8  39  34  3  22  0  53  4  3  .249  .305  .396  .701  34
Actual     ARI 293  80 16  1 18  46  41  3  18  0  52  1  1  .273  .318  .519  .836  47

We had him pegged as the everyday 2B, but he played only sparingly before winning a full-time job in the last two months. There's nothing in his major- or minor-league record that indicates this kind of power; his previous best homerun rate was one per 25 AB in the high-offense Pacific Coast League.

Danny Klassen, 2B, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     ARI 108  21  2  1  3  12   8  1   9  0  33  1  1  .194  .263  .315  .578   8

We didn't do a projection for him in the spring, perhaps because he hadn't yet played above AA at the time. Now has two strong minor-league seasons behind him, and you can bet that our 1999 projection will be considerably better than his actual 1998 results.

Jay Bell, SS, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI 556 146 28  3 15  75  74  6  63  3 109  7  6  .263  .340  .405  .745  78
Prorated   ARI 564 148 28  3 15  76  75  6  64  3 111  7  6  .263  .340  .405  .745  79
Actual     ARI 549 138 29  5 20  79  67  7  81  3 129  3  5  .251  .353  .432  .785  85

This was one of the high-profile free agent signings before the 1998 season, and while I've always thought Bell was one of the good players nobody talks about, I still can't see giving him $7 million a season. As you can see, Arizona received just about what they had a right to expect. I wonder if they were expecting more when they gave him all that money.

Matt Williams, 3B, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI 575 159 29  3 32  89 108  6  42  7 111  7  4  .277  .330  .504  .834  93
Prorated   ARI 511 141 26  3 28  79  96  5  37  6  99  6  4  .277  .330  .504  .834  82
Actual     ARI 510 136 26  1 20  72  71  3  43  8 102  5  1  .267  .327  .439  .766  69

The second of four (Bell, Blair and Benes were the others) high-profile signings by the Diamondbacks. Largely because he was battling injuries all year (lower back, left hand, hamstring, stress fracture in foot), Williams wasn't able to hit for as much power as usual. He's a good bet to bounce back if he can stay healthy next year.

Andy Fox, 2B/RF/3B/1B/LF/CF, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI  76  17  2  0  1  14   7  0  10  1  14  5  2  .224  .314  .289  .603   8
Prorated   ARI 493 110 13  0  6  91  45  0  65  6  91 32 13  .224  .314  .289  .603  49
Actual     ARI 502 139 21  6  9  67  44 18  43  0  97 14  7  .277  .355  .396  .751  75

As you can see, we didn't expect him to play much after coming over from the Yankees in a March trade. He produced one of the top ten positive surprises of the season, and Buck Showalter used his defensive versatility to keep him in the lineup just about every day. I must say that I'm a little skeptical about his ability to maintain this level of performance. He rarely approached or exceeded these numbers in the minors, and it's hard to find evidence that he can get better than this. If he keeps this up, he'll be able to keep a job as a utility player for quite some time, but his career best numbers are still only at the league average, so he wouldn't qualify as a regular at any of his 1998 positions other than 2B.

Dave Dellucci, LF/CF/RF, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI  67  18  4  0  2   9   8  1   7  0  13  1  1  .269  .347  .418  .765  10
Prorated   ARI 405 109 24  0 12  54  48  6  42  0  79  6  6  .269  .347  .418  .765  59
Actual     ARI 416 108 19 12  5  43  51  3  33  2 103  3  5  .260  .318  .399  .717  52

Another player we projected in a reserve role who ended up playing quite a bit. When he did play, his performance was about what we expected. By the way, he's never hit more than 3 triples in a season before, even in the minors, so his league-leading total of 12 came out of nowhere. We really like his defense, and he's young enough to get better at the plate, so he could have a decent career ahead of him.

Devon White, CF, age 35

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI 644 173 41  5 17  89  88 12  54  5 135 25  7  .269  .332  .427  .759  96
Prorated   ARI 559 150 36  4 15  77  76 10  47  4 117 22  6  .269  .332  .427  .759  84
Actual     ARI 563 157 32  1 22  84  85  9  42  4 102 22  8  .279  .335  .456  .792  88

After missing half of 1997 with injuries, he bounced back to produce a typical Devon White season: league average on-base percentage, decent power, legitimate stolen base threat. He's been used as a leadoff hitter most of his career, but his skills are better suited for lower in the order, and Showalter had the good sense to keep him out of the leadoff spot much of the time.

Karim Garcia, RF, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI 574 137 25 10 27  84 102  1  41  9 143 11  7  .239  .289  .458  .747  73
Prorated   ARI 328  78 14  6 15  48  58  1  23  5  82  6  4  .239  .289  .458  .747  42
Actual     ARI 333  74 10  8  9  39  43  0  18  1  78  5  4  .222  .260  .381  .641  31

Garcia has been a highly-touted phenom for several years now, but from 1995-7 posted great minor-league numbers while hitting like a pitcher in 60 major league atbats. He started very slowly again this year (.143 in 69 April atbats), was sent back to AAA, hit like a terror there, then finally produced at the expected level after being called back in June. Perhaps he's now had enough of a taste of the big leagues to have made that adjustment. Even so, until he gets a better handle on the strike zone, he'll fall short of superstar status.

Brent Brede, OF/1B, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI 388 110 24  3  7  64  54  2  52  2  74  8  4  .284  .368  .415  .783  63
Prorated   ARI 206  58 13  2  4  34  29  1  28  1  39  4  2  .284  .368  .415  .783  33
Actual     ARI 212  48  9  3  2  23  17  2  24  2  43  1  0  .226  .311  .325  .636  22

Was unable to match the decent-to-good numbers he produced with Minnesota in about 210 AB in the 1996-7 seasons, and was rewarded with an August demotion to Tuscon, where he batted pretty well (.313 with 11 extra-base hits in 96 AB).

Yamil Benitez, OF, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ARI 208  52  8  1  9  26  32  1  11  1  57  4  2  .250  .288  .428  .716  25
Prorated   ARI 210  52  8  1  9  26  32  1  11  1  58  4  2  .250  .288  .428  .716  25
Actual     ARI 206  41  7  1  9  17  30  4  14  1  46  2  2  .199  .262  .374  .636  19

Yet another young outfield prospect who disappointed the Diamondbacks this year. As you can see from the projection, there was no evidence that he would be a great player, and he has demonstrated very little knowledge of the strike zone, but it was reasonable to expect more from him.

Key Pitchers

The emergence of Omar Daal and the comeback of Gregg Olson were the main reasons why the Diamondbacks gave up 31 fewer runs than expected this year.

Andy Benes, Starter, age 30

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ARI  3.75  32 32  13 10  0  211 200 21  74 187  .250
Prorated   ARI  3.75  35 35  14 11  0  231 219 23  81 204  .250
Actual     ARI  3.97  34 34  14 13  0  231 221 25  74 164  .251

Was expected to be with the Cardinals this year, but was granted free agency on a technicality and signed with Arizona. Finished stronger than he started, but wound up posting a very typical Andy Benes season.

Willie Blair, Starter, age 32

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ARI  4.18  32 32  10 11  0  196 202 20  55 121  .268
Prorated   ARI  4.18  24 24   8  8  0  149 154 15  42  92  .268
Actual     ARI  5.34  23 23   4 15  0  147 165 27  51  71  .292
Actual     NYN  3.14  11  2   1  1  0   29  23  4  10  21  .228
Actual     TOT  4.98  34 25   5 16  0  175 188 31  61  92  .282

The Diamondbacks gave him a big contract on the strength of his 16-8 record in 1997, but that was Blair's only good season in eight tries, and his 1997 record was misleading anyway, as he allowed more hits than innings and posted an ERA that was only a third of a run below the league average. We projected him as a league-average pitcher in 1998, and when he fell short, his contract was sent to New York in the Gilkey trade. He pitched well for the Mets, mostly in relief, but his season was a disappointment overall.

Jeff Suppan, Starter, age 23

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ARI  4.23  32 32   9 10  0  179 191 18  51 135  .274
Prorated   ARI  4.23  12 12   4  4  0   70  74  7  20  53  .274
Actual     ARI  6.68  13 13   1  7  0   66  82 12  21  39  .301
Actual     KCA   .71   4  1   0  0  0   13   9  1   1  12  .200
Actual     TOT  5.72  17 14   1  7  0   79  91 13  22  51  .287

A lot of people were surprised when the Red Sox left him unprotected in the expansion draft, but there was no surprise when Arizona used a top pick to grab him. He was expected to take a regular turn in the rotation, but ended up being sent down to AAA before being traded. Time will tell whether Dan Duquette and the Diamondbacks have seen something to suggest that his quick rise through the minors wouldn't translate into success in the big leagues, or whether they both just gave up on him too quickly.

Brian Anderson, Starter, age 26

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ARI  4.87  27 27   7  7  0  163 189 27  34 101  .289
Prorated   ARI  4.87  33 33   8  8  0  196 228 33  41 122  .289
Actual     ARI  4.33  32 32  12 13  0  208 221 39  24  95  .274

Was expected to be one of the better pitchers on the staff, and he came through with a very nice performance in his first full season in the majors. Has always had good control, but it was exceptional this year.

Joel Adamson, Starter, age 26

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ARI  5.07  32 32   8 10  0  176 196 25  54 144  .284
Prorated   ARI  5.07   4  4   1  1  0   24  27  3   7  20  .284
Actual     ARI  8.22   5  5   0  3  0   23  25  5  11  14  .284

Began the season in the rotation, then had rotator cuff surgery in early May and did not return. Admitted that he was having shoulder pain from the time he showed up for spring training, but apparently never told the club until it was too late. He wasn't expected to be even an average pitcher, so his injury affected him more than it did the team.

Omar Daal, Starter, age 26

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ARI  4.48  74  4   4  4  1   96 105  8  36  85  .280
Prorated   ARI  4.48          6  6  2  153 166 13  57 135  .280
Actual     ARI  2.88  33 23   8 12  0  163 146 12  51 132  .245

He'd been used mostly as a reliever before 1998, and he made the most of his chance to join the rotation this year. His 8-12 record is highly misleading, as this was one of the most impressive upside surprises of the season. Can he do it again? He may not get his ERA under 3.00 again next year, but he looks like a good one. He was good enough to make his major-league debut at age 21, his control has steadily improved, and he strikes out a lot of hitters.

Amaury Telemaco, Starter, age 24

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection CHN  5.72  34  4   4  6  0   83  98 15  31  62  .293
Prorated   CHN  5.72  11  1   1  2  0   26  31  5  10  20  .293
Actual     CHN  3.90  14  0   1  1  0   28  23  5  13  18  .219
Actual     ARI  3.94  27 18   6  9  0  121 127 13  33  60  .271

The Cubs put him on waivers after a so-so stint as a long reliever, and the Diamondbacks ended up with an effective starting pitcher for the second half. He was once a hot prospect, but wound up battling shoulder problems in 1996-7. If he's completely healthy, he's young enough to continue improving.

Gregg Olson, Closer, age 31

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ARI  4.31  40  0   3  3  0   54  54  3  28  40  .263
Prorated   ARI  4.31  47  0   4  4  0   64  63  4  33  47  .263
Actual     ARI  3.01  64  0   3  4 30   69  56  4  25  55  .223

It's been nine years since he produced his first terrific season as a closer, and four years since his last good season, so it's easy to forget that he'll only be 32 years old when 1999 begins. If he stays healthy, he could have several more good years ahead of him.

Felix Rodriguez, Middle Relief, age 25

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ARI  5.06  74  4   6  8 46  132 139 14  78 104  .273
Prorated   ARI  5.06  25  1   2  3 16   44  47  5  26  35  .273
Actual     ARI  6.14  43  0   0  2  5   44  44  5  29  36  .259

Even though his projections weren't all that good, he was being talked up as the team's closer in spring training. He proved to be ineffective, and lost the closer job to Gregg Olson. The 6.14 ERA is misleading, as his underlying rates of hits, walks and homers allowed were right on target with our projections.

Clint Sodowsky, Long Relief, age 25

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ARI  5.22  53  0   3  4  0   69  79  7  40  47  .294
Prorated   ARI  5.22  60  0   3  4  0   77  89  8  45  53  .294
Actual     ARI  5.68  45  6   3  6  0   78  86  5  39  42  .283

No surprises here, as Sodowsky produced a season that was almost an exact copy of our projections. To have a good career, he'll need to reduce the opposition batting average and cut down on the walks, but he did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park.

Outlook

The Diamondbacks have signed Randy Johnson, Todd Stottlemyre, Armando Reynoso, and Greg Swindell. That's a major upgrade for a staff that finished 13th in team ERA in the NL. But it may not be enough to move them into playoff contention. They were third last in the NL in scoring, and while their young hitters should improve, they may not be able to gain enough ground after losing Devon White to the Dodgers and failing to sign Bernie Williams. Of course, they may not be finished spending, and a couple of decent hitters remain on the free agent market.

Regardless of what they do this year, the future looks promising. A quick scan of this page shows that many of their key players will be coming into their primes in the next few seasons. It shouldn't be long before Arizona is contending for a wild-card spot, and they can accelerate that process if they can find a way to score a few more runs.