1998 Post-Season Review -- Atlanta Braves

By Tom Ruane
December 11, 1998

This article takes a look at how the Atlanta Braves did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            800      826
Runs allowed        582      581
Run Margin          218      245
Wins                104      106
Pythagorean wins    106      108
Placement           1st      1st

We expected the Braves to tie the best record in franchise history and they ended up topping that mark by two games. Atlanta prepared for the season by letting their All-Star centerfielder walk and by replacing their 34 year-old first baseman with one more than two years older. While many of us questioned the wisdom of some of their moves, we didn't have any doubts about the Braves' starting rotation and the core of their offense.

Key Position Players

The Braves had a slightly more potent offense than anticipated. Much of this was due to the unexpected success of Andres Galarraga, outstanding production from their catchers, the rapid progress of Andruw Jones, and another fine season from Chipper Jones. On the other hand, they got very little production from their second basemen and a disappointing season out of Michael Tucker.

Javier Lopez, C, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL 577 167 30  2 27  68  87  5  43  9 108  1  3  .289  .341  .489  .830  91
Prorated   ATL 488 141 25  2 23  58  74  4  36  8  91  1  3  .289  .341  .489  .830  77
Actual     ATL 489 139 21  1 34  73 106  6  30  1  85  5  3  .284  .328  .540  .868  79

If someone had asked me last spring which team in the NL was going to get 40 HRs and 133 RBIs out of its catchers, I would've guessed the Dodgers. I was tempted to call this a breakthrough season for Lopez before noticing that his OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) had actually been higher the previous season. We thought he might regress a bit after his 1997 season and instead he bettered his previous highs in both HRs and RBIs by more than 50 percent.

Eddie Perez, C, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL  70  16  3  0  2   7   7  1   3  0  12  0  0  .229  .267  .357  .624   6
Prorated   ATL 156  36  7  0  4  16  16  2   7  0  27  0  0  .229  .267  .357  .624  13
Actual     ATL 149  50 12  0  6  18  32  2  15  0  28  1  1  .336  .404  .537  .941  32

While observers might have anticipated Javy Lopez' great season, Eddie Perez was a complete surprise. Sure, it was only in 149 at-bats, but he finished 1998 with a batting average almost 100 points higher than his career average coming into the season. As a matter of fact, in some ways he had a more productive season at the plate than Lopez. Perez gave some of the credit for his improvement to the steadying influence of Andres Galarraga, but I'd be very surprised if he ever comes close to hitting .300 again.

Andres Galarraga, 1B, age 37

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL 561 142 27  2 26  87 105 16  45  3 151 14  6  .253  .324  .447  .771  82
Prorated   ATL 580 147 28  2 27  90 109 17  47  3 156 14  6  .253  .324  .447  .771  85
Actual     ATL 555 169 27  1 44 103 121 25  63 11 146  7  6  .305  .397  .595  .991 134

Atlanta GM John Schuerholz and his new first baseman made a lot of us look foolish last year. Sure, Galarraga had 41 HRs, 140 RBIs and a .318 batting average in 1997, but that was while playing for the Rockies. It seemed pretty obvious that moving from the greatest hitters park in history to Turner Field would turn him into the second coming of an aging Fred McGriff. Of course it didn't happen. Andres Galarraga had a wonderful season, and in retrospect we probably should have seen it coming. After some extreme home/road splits during the start of his career in Colorado, Galarraga managed 20 road homers and a .295 batting average during his last year at Coors Field. Obscured by the effects of his home park is the fact that he has significantly improved his offense over each of his last three seasons. His road HRs, RBIs and batting average over that period:

    Year   HR  RBI   AVG
    1996   15   47  .245
    1997   20   51  .295
    1998   28   77  .296

This kind of development is simply not supposed to happen once you're on the wrong side of 35.

Keith Lockhart, 2B, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL 473 128 27  5  9  58  64  3  33  3  51  6  7  .271  .317  .406  .723  60
Prorated   ATL 365  99 21  4  7  45  49  2  25  2  39  5  5  .271  .317  .406  .723  47
Actual     ATL 366  94 21  0  9  50  37  1  29  0  37  2  2  .257  .311  .388  .699  46

Started very fast and had a .375 average (with a whopping .613 slugging percentage) after his first 80 at-bats in early May. No one thought it would last and it didn't. Rotator cuff problems contributed to what eventually turned into the worst season of his short major league career.

Tony Graffanino, 2B, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL 232  57 13  1  7  36  21  2  24  1  55  5  4  .246  .318  .401  .719  30
Prorated   ATL 279  68 16  1  8  43  25  2  29  1  66  6  5  .246  .318  .401  .719  36
Actual     ATL 289  61 14  1  5  32  22  2  24  0  68  1  4  .211  .275  .318  .594  24

Performed pretty well in limited service in his rookie season, and few foresaw the bottom falling out for Graffanino in 1998. The Braves had the worst hitting second basemen in the NL last year and they have already traded for Bret Boone to ensure that won't happen again. So which team had the worst hitting second basemen from 1996 to 1997? If you said the Cincinnati Reds (with Bret Boone), step to the head of the class.

Walt Weiss, SS, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL 484 114 20  4  3  58  33  5  86  5  77  8  2  .236  .355  .312  .667  61
Prorated   ATL 348  82 14  3  2  42  24  4  62  4  55  6  1  .236  .355  .312  .667  44
Actual     ATL 347  97 18  2  0  64  27  3  59  0  53  7  1  .280  .386  .343  .729  53

Another player who seemed to forget that he was no longer hitting in Coors Field. His statistics in 1998 were very much in keeping with the numbers he put up during his four years in Colorado. Leg problems (hamstring and quadriceps) and the serious illness of his son caused him to miss quite a bit of playing time.

Ozzie Guillen, SS, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL  71  17  3  1  0   8   7  0   2  0   4  1  1  .239  .257  .310  .567   5
Prorated   BAL  17   4  1  0  0   2   2  0   0  0   1  0  0  .239  .257  .310  .567   1
Actual     BAL  16   1  0  0  0   2   0  0   1  0   2  0  1  .063  .118  .063  .180   0
Actual     ATL 264  73 15  1  1  35  22  1  24  0  25  1  4  .277  .337  .352  .689  32

We figured he'd spend 1998 on a bench in Baltimore, not filling in at short for an injured Walt Weiss. He played a lot better than the Braves had any right to expect. The most surprising aspect of his hitting was the astonishing 24 walks he drew. Prior to coming to Atlanta, Guillen had walked about 30 times per 1000 plate appearances; he nearly tripled that rate in 1998.

Chipper Jones, 3B, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL 605 177 37  3 23 104 109  0  83  5  94 16  3  .293  .375  .478  .852 111
Prorated   ATL 616 180 38  3 23 106 111  0  85  5  96 16  3  .293  .375  .478  .852 113
Actual     ATL 601 188 29  5 34 123 107  1  96  1  93 16  6  .313  .404  .547  .951 136

Set career highs in several offensive categories in 1998. Most expected him to be good, just not that good. At this late date, it doesn't look as if the Braves will ever make a shortstop out of Chipper. This seems strange, since all reports indicate that he has the ability to play the position, and such a move would almost have to help the team's offense.

Ryan Klesko, LF, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL 555 150 27  5 29  85  99  4  66  9 145  5  4  .270  .350  .494  .844  96
Prorated   ATL 432 117 21  4 23  66  77  3  51  7 113  4  3  .270  .350  .494  .844  74
Actual     ATL 427 117 29  1 18  69  70  3  56  5  66  5  3  .274  .359  .473  .832  74

Klesko cut his strikeouts nearly in half this season, but his three-year offensive slide continued. He probably needs to go to a team where he can play first-base regularly. An emergency appendectomy caused him to miss two weeks in July.

Andruw Jones, CF, age 21

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL 589 146 30  3 30  92 104  4  68  2 153 29 13  .248  .328  .462  .790  89
Prorated   ATL 555 138 28  3 28  87  98  4  64  2 144 27 12  .248  .328  .462  .790  84
Actual     ATL 582 158 33  8 31  89  90  4  40  8 129 27  4  .271  .321  .515  .836  97

The bad press Jones received for his defensive and base-running lapses somewhat obscured the strides he made last season. His improvement in the power department was not unexpected, however, and the 15 home runs he hit over the last two months of the year bodes well for 1999. One problem area has been his strike-zone judgement, which was much worse than his rookie season.

Michael Tucker, RF, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL 597 163 31  8 17  91  71  9  56  2 138 14  8  .273  .343  .437  .780  91
Prorated   ATL 419 114 22  6 12  64  50  6  39  1  97 10  6  .273  .343  .437  .780  64
Actual     ATL 414 101 27  3 13  54  46  3  49 10 112  8  3  .244  .327  .418  .745  59

At this stage in his career, the Braves management expected Tucker to improve in 1998. Instead, he took a step backward and found himself being platooned in right with Gerald Williams. Will attempt to recover with the Reds next season.

Gerald Williams, RF/LF/CF, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection ATL  69  17  4  1  1   8   5  1   3  0  12  2  1  .246  .284  .377  .661   7
Prorated   ATL 266  66 15  4  4  31  19  4  12  0  46  8  4  .246  .284  .377  .661  28
Actual     ATL 266  81 19  2 10  46  44  3  17  1  48 11  5  .305  .352  .504  .856  46

Played a much larger role than we thought in the Braves outfield this year. Part of this was due to the Braves' unhappiness with Tucker's hitting and Klesco's fielding, and part of this was due to his surprisingly good season with the bat. While his discipline at the plate is still poor, Williams posted a batting average and slugging percentage that far exceeded anything he'd done previously.

Key Pitchers

Atlanta's pitching staff performed almost exactly as we thought they would last year. This wasn't too surprising, given the durability and consistency of their starting rotation. All five of their starters won 16 or more games, making the Braves the only second team in history (the 1923 Yankees were the first) to accomplish this feat. The bullpen was an entirely different story, but here the bad news (the collapse of Mark Wohlers) was effectively countered by the good news (the fine performance turned in by Kerry Ligtenberg and the unexpected showing by John Rocker and Rudy Seanez).

Tom Glavine, Starter, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ATL  3.25  32 32  13  9  0  216 197 15  72 152  .245
Prorated   ATL  3.25  33 33  14  9  0  225 205 16  75 158  .245
Actual     ATL  2.47  33 33  20  6  0  229 202 13  74 157  .238

If you look at everything but the ERA, he pitched about as well as expected in 1998. He allowed about a third of a base-runner less per nine innings than we'd anticipated and somehow managed to turn that difference into a much larger drop in ERA. That and the best run support he'd received in four years turned him from a 14 into a 20 game winner and kept the Cy Young Award in Atlanta.

Greg Maddux, Starter, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ATL  2.44  32 32  16  6  0  232 204  9  21 178  .238
Prorated   ATL  2.44  35 35  18  7  0  256 225 10  23 196  .238
Actual     ATL  2.22  34 34  18  9  0  251 201 13  45 204  .220

Maddux had another in a long line of great seasons in 1998. He hasn't posted an ERA higher than 3.00 since 1991. Topped 200 strikeouts for the first time last year; previously he'd posted totals of 197, 198 and 199 K's. Faded a bit during August and September, but he should produce another outstanding season in 1999.

John Smoltz, Starter, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ATL  3.04  32 32  16  9  0  237 211 19  58 243  .239
Prorated   ATL  3.04  23 23  11  6  0  168 150 13  41 172  .239
Actual     ATL  2.90  26 26  17  3  0  168 145 10  44 173  .231

Smoltz was the only member of the starting rotation to spend time on the DL, but he was even better than expected when healthy. He missed his first few starts recovering from off-season elbow surgery. More elbow problems put him on the shelf for six weeks prior to the All-Star break, but he bounced back to win twelve games (against one defeat) over the second-half of the season.

Denny Neagle, Starter, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ATL  3.50  32 32  13 10  0  219 210 19  46 156  .253
Prorated   ATL  3.50  31 31  12 10  0  210 202 18  44 150  .253
Actual     ATL  3.55  32 31  16 11  0  210 196 25  60 165  .250

Another Braves starting pitcher who produced as expected last year. One of the axioms in baseball is that you can never have enough pitching. The Braves, however, would seem to have a surplus. In addition to a solid five-man rotation, they also had one of baseball's best pitching prospects in Bruce Chen. Someone had to move to make room for him, and while Neagle could be the ace of the Reds' staff next year, Atlanta could conceivably have five better starters than him in 1999.

Kevin Millwood, Starter, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ATL  3.33  27 27  10  7  0  165 153  9  60 141  .246
Prorated   ATL  3.33  29 29  11  7  0  175 163 10  64 150  .246
Actual     ATL  4.08  31 29  17  8  0  174 175 18  56 163  .258

The only starting pitcher to do worse than we thought, Millwood still managed to win 17 games. He improved his walk to strikeout ratio last year from 1:2 to nearly 1:3 but had some trouble keeping the ball in the park. After allowing only one home run (in 51 1/3 innings) during his rookie season, Millwood gave up more than one every ten innings in 1998.

Mark Wohlers, Closer, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ATL  3.01  70  0   5  4 36   75  64  5  32 100  .232
Prorated   ATL  3.01  25  0   2  1 13   27  23  2  11  36  .232
Actual     ATL 10.18  27  0   0  1  8   20  18  2  33  22  .231

Wohlers came down with a bad case of the Steve Blass disease in 1998. It's strange, however, that his opponents' batting average ended up almost exactly where we thought it would be, despite an ERA and walk rate more than three times higher than expected.

He started the season with great stuff but shaky control. Before going on the DL in May with a torn muscle, he had a 1.93 ERA and 15 strikeouts (but 9 walks) in 9 1/3 innings. Most of us are familiar with the sad story of what happened when he tried to return a few weeks later.

Kerry Ligtenberg, Closer, age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ATL  3.35  70  0   4  3  2   78  64 13  20 104  .223
Prorated   ATL  3.35  64  0   4  3  2   72  59 12  18  96  .223
Actual     ATL  2.71  75  0   3  2 30   73  51  6  24  79  .193

Moved from setup man to closer when Wohlers was injured. Was harder to hit than expected despite striking out fewer batters. Got surprisingly little support among Rookie of Year voters. Heck, he wasn't even number one among rookies named Kerry. Hopefully, whatever Mark Wohlers caught last year isn't contagious.

Dennis Martinez, Middle Relief, age 43

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ATL  4.56   4  4   1  1  0   24  26  2   8  12  .283
Prorated   ATL  4.56  15 15   4  4  0   90  99  8  30  46  .283
Actual     ATL  4.45  53  5   4  6  2   91 109  8  19  62  .295

Martinez was not supposed to have much of a role in Atlanta's pitching staff last season. He got a chance to start when Smoltz was late for the bell and then moved to the bullpen. Considering his age, and the fact that he was coming off a season where he'd posted a 7.71 ERA, Martinez pitched very well.

John Rocker, Middle Relief, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     ATL  2.13  47  0   1  3  2   38  22  4  22  42  .172

He split 1997 between A and AA, finishing with a combined 6-7 record to go with a 4.73 ERA. Add to that the fact that he was primarily a starting pitcher in the minors and you have two good reasons why we didn't think he'd be with Atlanta last year. He went to the bullpen at the beginning of the AAA season and pitched well enough to get the call when Wohlers was injured.

Rudy Seanez, Middle Relief, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     ATL  2.75  34  0   4  1  2   36  25  2  16  50  .195

We didn't do a projection for him. This time last year, he was resting up after posting a 5.97 ERA for the Royals and Mets organizations in AAA. Pitched great in the minors (33 strikeouts in 21 innings) and managed to continue his fine work after being called up in June. Along with John Rocker, they managed to replace Kerry Ligtenberg, who in turn was able to replace Mark Wohlers.

Outlook

Despite their perceived lack of post-season success, the Atlanta Braves continue to be one of the great dynasties in baseball history. We've written about this elsewhere, but in today's three-tiered playoff format it's unusual for any team, no matter how great, to have even a one-in-four chance of winning the World Series. Since the strike ended in 1995, the Braves single championship (in four attempts) is just about what their fans should've expected from the best team in the National League.

Their front-office has moved quickly to address their weaknesses in the past season. Hopefully, John Schuerholz and company keep in mind that the team they are "fixing" is coming off the best campaign in franchise history. Drastic remedies are not called for. The pitchers at the heart of Atlanta's great pitching staff, while in their early thirties, are not close to the end of the line, and Millwood and Chen could once again give the Braves the best fourth and fifth starters in baseball.

There may be more off-season activity ahead for Atlanta. I have serious doubts about the ability of Bret Boone to repeat his success of 1998, but even if he reverts to form, the Braves will be no worse at second base than they were last season. Assuming that Brian Jordan can stay healthy (and that's certainly in doubt), he will be a big improvement over Michael Tucker in the outfield. I'd be very surprised if some of their players (Galarraga, Perez, Williams and Seanez) can repeat last year's performances, but the Braves should still continue to be the class of the National League in 1999.