1998 Post-Season Review -- Baltimore Orioles

By Tom Tippett
December 7, 1998

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs scored         831      817
Runs allowed        800      785
Run margin           31       32
Wins                 84       79
Pythagorean wins     84       84
Placement           3rd      4th

In the spring, we wrote that "[before running the simulations, we] expected them to finish comfortably ahead of the Red Sox and challenge the Yankees for the division lead. But they look more like an even match for the Sox, and I think age is the culprit. Our projections include a downward adjustment for older players, and though the adjustment is not large, it affects just about every key player on this team."

When the Orioles started the season with ten wins in their first twelve games, it looked as if they might be able to hold off Father Time for one more season. But they crashed to earth quickly, dropping to .500 by the end of April, then sinking ten games below .500 by July 1st. For a month after the all-star break, they were the hottest team in the league, but a ten-game losing streak in late August put an end to their hopes. They wound up doing almost exactly what our model predicted, but it was anything but a straight line from point A to point B.

Key Position Players

The Orioles offense was expected to produce 831 runs, and they came through with 817. Lenny Webster, Mike Bordick and Rafael Palmeiro had very good seasons, while Roberto Alomar and Brady Anderson weren't up to their normal levels. Jeffrey Hammonds was hurt and didn't play nearly as much as expected before being traded to Cincinnati.

Chris Hoiles, C, age 33 (as of July 1, 1998)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 488 120 19  0 23  68  77 12  76  3 123  0  0  .246  .358  .426  .784  79
Prorated   BAL 267  66 10  0 13  37  42  7  42  2  67  0  0  .246  .358  .426  .784  43
Actual     BAL 267  70 12  0 15  36  56  4  38  0  50  0  1  .262  .358  .476  .833  48

Slightly outperformed his projection when he played, but ended up splitting the job with Webster instead of being the regular. Ended the season battling back and hip problems that may force him to move to 1B or DH next year. Unfortunately for him, he's no longer a strong enough hitter to be a regular at either of those positions on a good team.

Lenny Webster, C, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL  67  16  3  0  1   7   8  0   7  0  11  0  0  .239  .311  .328  .639   6
Prorated   BAL 293  70 13  0  4  31  35  0  31  0  48  0  0  .239  .311  .328  .639  28
Actual     BAL 309  88 16  0 10  37  46  0  15  0  38  0  0  .285  .317  .434  .751  40

This is the first time in his ten-year career that he's had more than 300 atbats, and it's only the second time he's been over 200. So there must be a lot of managers who think his 1998 season is a bit of a fluke. Suppose someone gave him 500 atbats in a season and he performed at his career average: you'd have a guy with a decent batting average, a league average walk rate, and 12-14 homers. Not star quality, but quite acceptable for a second catcher.

Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 566 150 28  1 34  88 107  3  68  7  92  4  1  .265  .344  .498  .842  99
Prorated   BAL 624 165 31  1 37  97 118  3  75  8 101  4  1  .265  .344  .498  .842 109
Actual     BAL 619 183 36  1 43  98 121  7  79  8  91 11  7  .296  .379  .565  .945 132

Looking back at Raffy's last few seasons, I see that his .254 average in 1997 was an exception, the only average below .289 in five years. So I'm a little surprised to see that our model projected a .265 average for him. The downward adjustment for older players has something to do with it, but Palmeiro defied the advancing years by playing in every game and hitting a little above his career norms in just about every category.

Roberto Alomar, 2B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 616 196 37  3 20 107  87  2  71  6  66 17  6  .318  .385  .485  .870 117
Prorated   BAL 572 182 34  3 19  99  81  2  66  6  61 16  6  .318  .385  .485  .870 109
Actual     BAL 588 166 36  1 14  86  56  2  59  3  70 18  5  .282  .347  .418  .765  88

Not a bad season for most 2Bs, but well below Alomar's standards, perhaps due to off-season shoulder surgery. My question: if he can hit like this in a bad year, and the talent at the position is such that one of the best teams in baseball (Atlanta) is so eager to get Bret Boone that they'd surrender Denny Neagle in a trade, why didn't Baltimore want to keep him? And why weren't teams other than Cleveland lining up to sign this guy?

Mike Bordick, SS, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 501 116 17  1  5  46  45  2  39  1  64  2  5  .232  .287  .299  .586  42
Prorated   BAL 481 111 16  1  5  44  43  2  37  1  61  2  5  .232  .287  .299  .586  40
Actual     BAL 465 121 29  1 13  59  51 10  39  0  65  6  7  .260  .328  .411  .739  61

A very nice upside surprise, almost exactly offsetting the drop in Alomar's numbers. It's hard to believe, but he outhit Ripken (based on OPS) and wasn't all that far behind Alomar. What are the odds that his surge in power is real? Not too good, I'd say, but you never know in an age when more and more players are bulking up in the weight room.

Cal Ripken, 3B, age 37

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 589 155 33  0 17  75  82  4  53  3  72  0  0  .263  .324  .406  .730  75
Prorated   BAL 594 156 33  0 17  76  83  4  53  3  73  0  0  .263  .324  .406  .730  76
Actual     BAL 601 163 27  1 14  65  61  4  51  0  68  0  2  .271  .331  .389  .721  78

The only thing unusual about his 1998 performance was that he took a day off. His output was exactly what was projected. Problem is, that's not nearly enough offense for a 3B these days, and it really hurt the club.

B.J. Surhoff, LF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 605 168 33  4 19  87  94  4  53 12  78  1  1  .278  .337  .440  .776  91
Prorated   BAL 572 159 31  4 18  82  89  4  50 11  74  1  1  .278  .337  .440  .776  86
Actual     BAL 573 160 34  1 22  79  92  1  49  9  81  9  7  .279  .332  .457  .789  85

Like Ripken, Surhoff did exactly what he was expected to do, but a contending team needs a little more offense than this out of the LF position. I'm intrigued by his 16 attempted steals, which are two more than his previous four seasons combined. He ran a fair amount in his younger days, but even then he had only a 61% success rate, so why would Ray Miller send him so often?

Brady Anderson, CF, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 602 168 39  7 28 104  82 19  84  5 112 20 11  .279  .383  .507  .890 123
Prorated   BAL 486 136 31  6 23  84  66 15  68  4  90 16  9  .279  .383  .507  .890 100
Actual     BAL 479 113 28  3 18  84  51 15  75  1  78 21  7  .236  .356  .420  .776  78

Got off to an atrocious start (4 for 52 in April) and battled injuries all year (bone chip in left hand, sprained muscle in shoulder, hamstring, torn patella tendon in right knee). His numbers were down in large part because he was trying to play hurt and couldn't. If his knee (and the rest of him) recovers fully, he should bounce back in 1999.

Jeffrey Hammonds, CF/RF, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 631 157 28  3 26 104  83  6  56  1 117 17  4  .249  .314  .426  .741  87
Prorated   BAL 183  46  8  1  8  30  24  2  16  0  34  5  1  .249  .314  .426  .741  25
Actual     BAL 171  46 12  1  6  36  28  3  26  1  38  7  2  .269  .369  .456  .826  32
Actual     CIN  86  26  4  1  0  14  11  0  13  0  18  1  1  .302  .390  .372  .762  14
Actual     TOT 257  72 16  2  6  50  39  3  39  1  56  8  3  .280  .376  .428  .804  46

Seemed to be coming into his own in 1997, then suffered through 1998 with a nerve problem in his back and ligament damage in his left wrist. Took quite a few more walks than he has in the past, but his power was down. Traded to the Reds for Willie Greene in mid-August.

Joe Carter, RF/DH, age 38

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 303  70 13  1 12  37  47  3  18  2  52  4  2  .231  .277  .399  .677  33
Prorated   BAL 280  65 12  1 11  34  43  3  17  2  48  4  2  .231  .277  .399  .677  30
Actual     BAL 283  70 15  1 11  36  34  2  18  4  48  3  1  .247  .297  .424  .721  34
Actual     SFN 105  31  7  0  7  15  29  0   6  0  13  1  0  .295  .322  .562  .884  19
Actual     TOT 388 101 22  1 18  51  63  2  24  4  61  4  1  .260  .304  .461  .765  53

Was slightly better than expected for Baltimore, and had a great run with the Giants before announcing that he would retire after the season. I couldn't understand why the Orioles signed him in the first place. I guess they were mezmerized by his 102 RBI in 1997, and failed to notice that he was well below the league average in batting, on-base and slugging that year.

Eric Davis, RF/DH, age 36

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL  64  19  4  0  4  12  12  1   9  0  19  3  1  .297  .387  .547  .934  14
Prorated   BAL 433 129 27  0 27  81  81  7  61  0 129 20  7  .297  .387  .547  .934  97
Actual     BAL 452 148 29  1 28  81  89  5  44  0 108  7  6  .327  .388  .582  .970  99

Wow! Back in spring training, we projected Davis as a fourth outfielder, figuring that Surhoff, Anderson and Hammonds would be the regulars. So it was a surprise when he became an almost-every-day player. Except for the fact that he did this after apparently winning a fight with cancer in 1997, his performance was no surprise, however. After adjusting the projection for playing time, you can see that he produced 15 more singles and 17 fewer walks than expected, which added up to a slight increase in runs created. In other words, this was a terrific season, but quite consistent with his established level.

Harold Baines, DH, age 39

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 365 110 19  0 16  49  59  0  50  8  50  0  1  .301  .383  .485  .868  66
Prorated   BAL 286  86 15  0 13  38  46  0  39  6  39  0  1  .301  .383  .485  .868  52
Actual     BAL 293  88 17  0  9  40  57  1  32  4  40  0  0  .300  .369  .451  .819  45

His numbers were down slightly, despite the fact that he was used sparingly against lefties this year. To put it another way, his 1998 averages are nearly identical to his 1997 numbers and his career averages, but he needed to have the platoon advantage 83% of the time to maintain that level. That's a little worrisome, though he's still a good hitter.

Key Pitchers

The team allowed 785 runs, 15 fewer than projected. The good news was that Mike Mussina was strong, Scott Erickson was OK, and the bullpen was solid. The bad news was that Jimmy Key and Scott Kamieniecki made only 11 starts each, and Doug Drabek was awful in 21 starts. With these injuries, it could have been a disaster, but Sydney Ponson, Doug Johns, and Juan Guzman (who came over in a trade from Toronto) filled in with performances ranging from league average to a little below average. Overall, the staff did about what we expected them to do, and that was only good enough for 7th out of 14 in team ERA.

Mike Mussina, Starter, age 29 (as of July 1, 1998)

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  3.82  32 32  13 10  0  217 209 27  55 192  .253
Prorated   BAL  3.82  30 30  12  9  0  202 195 25  51 179  .253
Actual     BAL  3.49  29 29  13 10  0  206 189 22  41 175  .242

The club's early-season slide began when Mussina went on the DL in April, but continued after his return, so that wasn't the only reason. This was a perfectly normal season for him, but it looks like a bit of an upside surprise because an off year in 1996 pushed his projected numbers up a bit.

Scott Erickson, Starter, age 30

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  4.27  32 32  12 10  0  213 229 18  61 114  .280
Prorated   BAL  4.27  39 39  15 12  0  262 282 22  75 140  .280
Actual     BAL  4.01  36 36  16 13  0  251 284 23  69 186  .281

This man is an enigma. When he's on, he can win a game by himself, reminding me of Kevin Brown in the process. But he's obviously not on all the time, as he's allowed more hits than innings, sometimes a lot more, in five of the last six campaigns. He struck out a bunch more guys this year, but all in all, it was a pretty typical season.

Jimmy Key, Starter, age 37

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  4.45  32 32  11 10  0  192 199 23  74 135  .268
Prorated   BAL  4.45  13 13   4  4  0   76  78  9  29  53  .268
Actual     BAL  4.20  25 11   6  3  0   79  77  5  23  53  .258

A poster child for the volatility of ERAs. In 1997, he allowed 8.9 hits, 3.5 walks, and 1.0 homers per nine innings, and his ERA was 3.43. In 1998, he reduced those numbers to 8.7 hits, 2.6 walks, and 0.6 homers per nine innings, and his ERA rose by almost a run to 4.20. A superficial glance at his ERAs would suggest that he was much better in 1997, but the truth is just the opposite. A rotator cuff problem cost him a lot of playing time this year, and Key says his shoulder can no longer handle the rigors of starting. He says he'd opt to retire rather than have surgery. Too bad, as Key is one of my favorite players.

Scott Kamieniecki, Starter, age 34

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  4.90  32 32  10 12  0  189 202 23  83 118  .276
Prorated   BAL  4.90  10 10   3  4  0   57  60  7  25  35  .276
Actual     BAL  6.75  12 11   2  6  0   55  67  7  26  25  .313

At one time, I thought of him as a promising young arm, but I didn't realize that his first full season in the majors didn't come until he was 28. Injuries cost him much of 1995-6, and a groin problem and a bulging disk in his neck limited him to 11 ineffective starts this year. So now he's well into the decline phase of his career, he's still battling injuries, and he's got only two solid seasons to show for it. A lot of people point to the money and glamor of pro sports, but there are a lot more stories like this one than there are fairy tales.

Doug Drabek, Starter, age 35

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  5.87  27 27   6 11  0  146 171 27  55  88  .295
Prorated   BAL  5.87  20 20   4  8  0  109 128 20  41  66  .295
Actual     BAL  7.29  23 21   6 11  0  109 138 20  29  55  .312

One look at the projection will tell you what I thought of this free agent signing. I heard that O's fans were shocked and outraged when they saw what management was doing last winter (signing a bunch of older guys who hadn't been playing all that well), so I imagine there are a lot of folks saying "I told you so" right about now.

Sidney Ponson, Starter, age 21

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     BAL  5.27  31 20   8  9  1  135 157 19  42  85  .293

Wasn't on our radar screen in the spring, so we have no projection for him. Even if we did, it would have been awful, since all but 13 starts of his pro career were in A ball or below, and his 13 AA starts weren't very good (2-7, 5.42 ERA). He's always had good control in the minors, and this was his strength in 1998. Without that, the hits and homers he allowed would have added up to a lot more runs.

Juan Guzman, Starter, age 31

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  3.83  32 32  10  8  0  167 150 23  64 141  .241
Prorated   TOR  3.83  29 29   9  7  0  150 135 21  57 127  .241
Actual     TOR  4.41  22 22   6 12  0  145 133 19  65 113  .239
Actual     BAL  4.23  11 11   4  4  0   66  60  4  33  55  .241
Actual     TOT  4.35  33 33  10 16  0  211 193 23  98 168  .240

His career has included periods of dominance and other stretches where his control deserts him and he becomes an average pitcher. This season was in the middle -- his usual rates of hits and homers, but a little on the high side for walks. Still has great stuff, so teams might be willing to take a chance on him, hoping that he can find the plate consistently.

Doug Johns, Swing man, age 30

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     BAL  4.57  31 10   3  3  1   87 108  9  32  34  .321

Didn't play in the majors in 1997, and didn't seem likely to make much of an impact this year, so we didn't even generate a projection for him back in the spring. If we had, it wouldn't have looked much different from what he did in 1998. Has yet to have any real success in the big leagues.

Norm Charlton, Middle reliever, age 35

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  5.03  40  0   2  2  0   39  43  4  23  34  .281
Prorated   BAL  5.03  40  0   2  2  0   39  43  4  23  34  .281
Actual     BAL  6.94  36  0   2  1  0   35  46  5  25  41  .305
Actual     ATL  1.38  13  0   0  0  1   13   7  0   8   6  .167
Actual     TOT  5.44  49  0   2  1  1   48  53  5  33  47  .275

OK, you're the general manager. Do you (a) give him a fat two-year contract on the basis of a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings in Atlanta, or (b) see that he was the below-average pitcher that he was projected to be and stay away? If it's me, I look at him only if I'm lacking in lefty relief at the moment, and even then only if I can get him cheap and put him in a mopup role until I see whether I've found lightning in a bottle. He was terrific once, but he's three years removed from his last good season.

Alan Mills, Middle reliever, age 31

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  5.56  70  0   3  4  1   66  67 11  53  58  .263
Prorated   BAL  5.56  73  0   3  4  1   69  70 11  55  60  .263
Actual     BAL  3.74  72  0   3  4  2   77  55  8  50  57  .203

Overall, Mills was much better than projected, but is still walking way too many men. His projected ERA was probably a little higher than it should have been, as it seems that short relievers can get away with bases on balls without hurting their ERAs as much as others do.

Jesse Orosco, Middle reliever, age 41

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  2.61  53  0   3  1  0   38  25  4  22  37  .188
Prorated   BAL  2.61  81  0   5  2  0   58  38  6  34  57  .188
Actual     BAL  3.18  69  0   4  1  7   57  46  6  28  50  .221

Amazing. These are not superstar numbers, but I'm still very impressed with someone at age 41 who can carry a normal workload and hold opposing hitters to a .221 average. Even righties only batted .232 with below-average power against him.

Arthur Rhodes, Middle reliever, age 28

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  3.34  70  0   8  4  6  127 109 14  45 138  .232
Prorated   BAL  3.34  43  0   5  2  4   77  67  9  28  84  .232
Actual     BAL  3.51  45  0   4  4  4   77  65  8  34  83  .233

It's obvious that our projection for games and innings was way too high. We'll have to adjust that for 1999, because relievers simply don't pitch that much in the 1990s. Fortunately, such a thing has no impact on our simulations, as player performance is based on averages, not totals. And when playing time is adjusted, we see that he was every bit as good as expected.

Armando Benitez, Closer, age 25

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BAL  2.65  70  0   5  2 38   75  51  8  42 105  .192
Prorated   BAL  2.65  64  0   5  2 35   69  47  7  39  96  .192
Actual     BAL  3.82  71  0   5  6 22   68  48 10  39  87  .199

Three HR separated his projection from his 1998 results. For a closer, that can mean three blown saves, but he was an excellent 22 of 26 in save situations this year, and I regard this as a pretty successful season. They did the right thing in letting Randy Myers go so Benitez could take over.

Outlook

I'm writing this review after having just finished the one on the Diamondbacks. The contrast is remarkable. Most of Arizona's key players are in their mid-20s, and their veterans (Williams, Bell, Benes) aren't that far past 30. On the other hand, there's very little young talent on this page, and while Peter Angelos has spent some serious money, it's not clear whether it will be enough to keep this team from sinking.

Let's see what we get when we balance the players that won't be back with the ones who've joined Baltimore so far this off-season. The addition of Albert Belle makes them much better in left field. They'll be better defensively at catcher, with the trade for Charles Johnson, but it's far from clear whether Johnson will hit as well as the Hoiles/Webster platoon did in 1998. Delino DeShields won't be as good as Roberto Alomar at second, and Will Clark won't replace Rafael Palmeiro at first, either. They lost Eric Davis. And Mike Timlin doesn't make up for the departures of Benitez and Mills from the bullpen.

If I'm an Orioles fan, I'm worried.