1998 Post-Season Review -- Boston Red Sox

By Tom Tippett
December 14, 1998

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs scored         790      876
Runs allowed        770      729
Run margin           20      147
Wins                 85       92
Pythagorean wins     83       96
Placement           2nd      2nd

The Sox entered the season as one of four teams with a legitimate shot at the AL wild card (Baltimore, Anaheim, and Texas were the others). While they never threatened the record-setting Yankees for the division title, they had the second-best record in the AL for almost the entire season. Their hold on the wild-card spot was threatened briefly in September, but the Blue Jays faded and the Sox qualified for the playoffs for the first time in three seasons.

Key Position Players

The team began the season with some apparently big holes in their offense. They lost 2B Jeff Frye for the year when he blew out his knee early in spring training, forcing them to choose among 2Bs Donnie Sadler, Mark Lemke, and Mike Benjamin, none of whom was expected to do much at the plate. Odds were that their entire starting outfield (O'Leary, Bragg, Lewis, Buford) would combine for fewer HR than some individuals on other teams (Belle, Ramirez, Griffey). Offensively, the catching position became suspect when management concluded that Jim Leyritz was not good enough defensively to play ahead of Jason Varitek.

Thanks to several not-likely-to-be-repeated performances, Boston finished third in the AL in scoring. Darren Lewis's surprising .352 on-base-percentage enabled the Sox to move Garciaparra into the cleanup spot. Mike Benjamin filled in at 2B with great defense and a batting average 50 points above his career norm. Varitek held his own at the plate. Mo Vaughn and Nomar Garciaparra had their best years. And nobody had a bad year, something you don't see very often.

Scott Hatteberg, C, age 28 (as of July 1, 1998)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 349  92 22  0 10  48  43  2  46  1  70  0  1  .264  .351  .413  .763  50
Prorated   BOS 357  94 22  0 10  49  44  2  47  1  72  0  1  .264  .351  .413  .763  51
Actual     BOS 359  99 23  1 12  46  43  5  43  3  58  0  0  .276  .359  .446  .804  57

The Sox are willing to carry his below-average throwing arm because he hits pretty well for a catcher. Hatteberg produced at a level slightly above expectations in his second season as the lefty side of a catching platoon.

Jason Varitek, C, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 158  35  9  0  5  19  19  0  16  2  33  0  0  .222  .290  .373  .663  17
Prorated   BOS 222  49 13  0  7  27  27  0  22  3  46  0  0  .222  .290  .373  .663  23
Actual     BOS 221  56 13  0  7  31  33  2  17  1  45  2  2  .253  .309  .407  .716  26

Entered the season with a career batting average of 1.000, but his minor-league numbers didn't project him as much of a hitter. He's a switch hitter who was much better right-handed. Jimy Williams played to his strength by giving him 60% of his ABs against lefties, and that helped his overall numbers.

Jim Leyritz, C/PH/DH, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 229  60  9  0  4  29  35  5  33  2  55  1  0  .262  .363  .354  .717  31
Prorated   BOS 131  34  5  0  2  17  20  3  19  1  32  1  0  .262  .363  .354  .717  18
Actual     BOS 129  37  6  0  8  17  24  2  21  1  34  0  0  .287  .385  .519  .904  27
Actual     SDN 143  38 10  0  4  17  18  7  21  0  40  0  0  .266  .384  .420  .803  25

When Dan Duquette traded Aaron Sele for Leyritz last year, he justified the move by praising Leyritz's defensive skills, emphasizing that Leyritz threw out 43% of enemy baserunners in 1997. At the time, we had just finished our analysis of catcher throwing for 1997, and we had noticed that Leyritz had compiled that 43% figure while catching a collection of pitchers who were especially good at holding runners. We predicted that the Sox would end up being disappointed with Leyritz's defense, and sure enough, Jimy Williams needed only a week of spring training before removing Leyritz from the catching mix altogether. After Leyritz complained publicly about his lack of playing time, he was dealt to San Diego for a couple of guys (Dario Veras, Mandy Romero) who didn't make the Red Sox post-season roster. In San Diego, Leyritz threw out only 2 of 12 runners, but made headlines with one of his now-familiar bursts of post-season power and clutch hitting.

Mo Vaughn, 1B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 547 168 24  0 35  95 107 12  80 16 151  3  1  .307  .404  .543  .947 123
Prorated   BOS 579 178 25  0 37 101 113 13  85 17 160  3  1  .307  .404  .543  .947 130
Actual     BOS 609 205 31  2 40 107 115  8  61 13 144  0  0  .337  .402  .591  .993 144

Entered the season angry about the Sox reluctance to give him a top-dollar long-term contract, vowing that the price would be going up every day that the waited to sign him. He was right on all counts, as he played the best defense of his career and came within a couple of atbats of winning the batting title while maintaining his power. His walks were down, but he made up for it in other ways. After the season, Anaheim rewarded him with a 6-year, $80 million dollar contract.

Mike Benjamin, 2B/SS/3B, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 103  23  6  1  1  11   9  1   6  2  22  3  1  .223  .270  .330  .600   9
Prorated   BOS 351  78 20  3  3  37  31  3  20  7  75 10  3  .223  .270  .330  .600  31
Actual     BOS 349  95 23  0  4  46  39  6  15  1  73  3  0  .272  .312  .372  .684  39

Made the team as a super-sub, able to play superior defense at several positions. Had never batted over .233 in a season in which he had at least 100 AB. Has he elevated his game at age 32? Well, the Pirates think so, as they just gave him a 2-year contract. For their sake and his, I hope they're right, but I can't see how a career .220 hitter can be expected to do this again.

Lou Merloni, 2B/3B, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     BOS  96  27  6  0  1  10  15  2   7  1  20  1  0  .281  .343  .375  .718  13

Was not expected to play in the majors this year, so we didn't do a projection for him. He emerged as a pleasant surprise, with several defensive gems and clutch hits. He's been a good hitter in the minors for the past two years, but was never talked about as a prospect.

Donnie Sadler, 2B, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS  64  14  2  1  1   9   6  1   8  0  14  5  3  .219  .311  .328  .639   7
Prorated   BOS 115  25  4  2  2  16  11  2  14  0  25  9  5  .219  .311  .328  .639  13
Actual     BOS 124  28  4  4  3  20  15  3   6  0  28  4  0  .226  .276  .395  .671  15

Has been hyped (by the Red Sox) as a top prospect despite some very low batting averages in the minors. But he was a AAA regular at age 21 and his walk rate and power are above average for a 2B. This, added to his speed and defense, gives him a chance to be a very good all-around player. The Sox recently signed Jose Offerman, possibly to play 2B, so they may feel that Sadler is another year away at this point.

Mark Lemke, 2B, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 469 116 23  0  2  49  35  0  41  0  56  0  0  .247  .304  .309  .613  44
Prorated   BOS  90  22  4  0  0   9   7  0   8  0  11  0  0  .247  .304  .309  .613   8
Actual     BOS  91  17  4  0  0  10   7  0   6  0  15  0  1  .187  .232  .231  .463   5

A late-March signing, Lemke was expected to be the everyday 2B, but got off to a very slow start after missing most of spring training. In late May, he went on the DL with post-concussion syndrome after a collision, then never returned. It's unclear whether his return was prevented by his health or the surprisingly strong performances of Benjamin, Merloni, and Sadler.

John Valentin, 3B, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 598 176 42  3 18  97  78  7  66  3  73  9  7  .294  .367  .465  .832 101
Prorated   BOS 599 176 42  3 18  97  78  7  66  3  73  9  7  .294  .367  .465  .832 101
Actual     BOS 588 145 44  1 23 113  73  9  77  3  82  4  5  .247  .340  .442  .782  92

Compensated for a disappointing batting average with a few more walks and a little more power. Overall, a pretty good season, only a little below his normal level of production.

Nomar Garciaparra, SS, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 668 202 41 11 31 119 103  5  37  2  87 24  8  .302  .340  .536  .876 121
Prorated   BOS 605 183 37 10 28 108  93  5  34  2  79 22  7  .302  .340  .536  .876 109
Actual     BOS 604 195 37  8 35 111 122  8  33  1  62 12  6  .323  .362  .584  .946 120

One of the outstanding young shortstops in the game, he thrives on situations where the game is on the line. Even his outs are impressive, as it's hard to recall too many occasions when he failed to hit the ball very, very hard. As a sophomore in 1998, he made across-the-board improvements on his record-setting rookie season, and Jimy Williams wisely made him the cleanup hitter midway through the campaign.

Troy O'Leary, LF, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 569 164 35  5 16  74  86  3  46  6  88  2  4  .288  .342  .452  .794  85
Prorated   BOS 599 173 37  5 17  78  91  3  48  6  93  2  4  .288  .342  .452  .794  90
Actual     BOS 611 165 36  8 23  95  83  5  36  2 108  2  2  .270  .314  .468  .782  85

A strong first half and weak second half combined for a fairly typical O'Leary season. His OPS was only ten points above the AL average, and that's not good enough for a left-fielder playing in a hitters' park. This is a bad omen for the team, as he's their best hitting outfielder.

Darren Lewis, CF, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS  65  15  2  0  0  10   7  0   7  0  10  4  2  .231  .306  .262  .567   6
Prorated   BOS 581 134 18  0  0  89  63  0  63  0  89 36 18  .231  .306  .262  .567  51
Actual     BOS 585 157 25  3  8  95  63  8  70  0  94 29 12  .268  .352  .362  .714  79

Looking over his career batting stats, we couldn't find any reason to project him as an everyday player, even in this weak-hitting outfield. But he became the everyday CF and hit well enough to be moved into the leadoff spot. The Sox just gave him a 3-year contract at $2.3 million per, then went after Bernie Williams very hard. So it's hard to tell whether they see Lewis as an everyday CF in the future.

NOTE: Lewis' prorated projection line is a little misleading because his 3B and HR disappeared when his original projections, based on 65 AB, were rounded off. If it weren't for these rounding errors, he would have been projected for six triples, four homers, and a .303 slugging percentage over a full season.

Damon Buford, CF, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 506 120 29  0 12  78  54  5  46  0 116 26 12  .237  .305  .366  .670  57
Prorated   BOS 215  51 12  0  5  33  23  2  20  0  49 11  5  .237  .305  .366  .670  24
Actual     BOS 216  61 14  4 10  37  42  1  22  1  43  5  5  .282  .349  .523  .872  38

Jimy Williams recognized that Buford has always hit lefties very hard and struggled against righties, so he gave Buford 60% of his atbats against lefties this year. Buford came through with a big year. His left/right splits continued to be larger than most (.333/.390/.621 against LHP and .202/.284/.369 against RHP), so he's likely to be limited to a platoon role in the future.

Darren Bragg, RF/CF, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 577 149 38  2 11  83  62  4  76  5 112 14  8  .258  .346  .388  .734  80
Prorated   BOS 403 104 27  1  8  58  43  3  53  3  78 10  6  .258  .346  .388  .734  56
Actual     BOS 409 114 29  3  8  51  57  6  42  0  99  5  3  .279  .351  .423  .774  59

A lefty hitter, he was used mainly against right-handed pitching this year. The result was a solid all-around contribution. Like O'Leary, however, these stats are not good enough for a Fenway outfielder, though Bragg helps make up for it with very good defense.

Reggie Jefferson, DH, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BOS 463 149 32  2 14  72  71  6  26  6  97  0  1  .322  .363  .490  .853  78
Prorated   BOS 203  65 14  1  6  32  31  3  11  3  42  0  0  .322  .363  .490  .853  34
Actual     BOS 196  60 16  1  8  24  31  1  21  2  40  0  0  .306  .374  .520  .895  37

Continued to be a very productive hitter before missing the second half of the season with a strained lower back that failed to respond to rest and a couple of cortisone shots. Has not hit lefties well enough to be in the lineup every day. Not a good fielder, so his role is not likely to expand beyond left-handed hitting DH.

Mike Stanley, DH/1B, age 35

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 250  61 14  0 10  41  41  3  40  3  51  0  0  .244  .351  .420  .771  38
Prorated   TOR 342  83 19  0 14  56  56  4  55  4  70  0  0  .244  .351  .420  .771  52
Actual     TOR 341  82 13  0 22  49  47  5  56  3  86  2  1  .240  .353  .472  .825  60
Actual     BOS 156  45 12  0  7  25  32  2  26  2  43  1  0  .288  .388  .500  .888  31
Actual     TOT 497 127 25  0 29  74  79  7  82  5 129  3  1  .256  .364  .481  .845  91

Acquired from Toronto to fill the role Jim Leyritz was playing (DH against LHP, PH, backup 1B), and came through with a strong performance. His defense at 1B is OK, so it's possible he'll get a lot of time at that position in 1999 now that Vaughn is in Anaheim.

Key Pitchers

The Red Sox staff allowed 41 fewer runs than projected this year, and Pedro Martinez, Bret Saberhagen, Derek Lowe, Jim Corsi, and Tom Gordon get most of the credit. Martinez set the tone by matching some extremely high expectations, Saberhagen emerged as a favorite for comeback player of the year with 15 wins and a solid all-around performance, while Lowe, Corsi and Gordon anchored a bullpen that finished only 0.11 off the league lead in relief ERA.

Pedro Martinez, Starter, age 26 (as of July 1, 1998)

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  2.80  32 32  17  6  0  238 189 21  73 266  .218
Prorated   BOS  2.80  32 32  17  6  0  236 187 21  72 264  .218
Actual     BOS  2.89  33 33  19  7  0  234 188 26  67 251  .217

What he did is exactly what you would expect him to do based on his last three years in Montreal, after adjusting his stats to account for his move to a DH league and a much better hitters' park (Fenway vs Olympic Stadium).

Butch Henry, Starter, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  4.36  32 32   8  8  0  182 207 17  40 103  .289
Prorated   BOS  4.36   2  2   0  0  0    9  10  1   2   5  .289
Actual     BOS  4.00   2  2   0  0  0    9   8  2   3   6  .235

Was expected to be the #2 starter but went down with a season-ending knee injury in his second start. The Sox did not offer arbitration, so Henry is now a free agent.

Tim Wakefield, Starter, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  4.68  32 32  10 12  0  204 208 28  84 146  .265
Prorated   BOS  4.68  34 34  10 13  0  213 218 29  88 153  .265
Actual     BOS  4.58  36 33  17  8  0  216 211 30  79 146  .252

Wakefield added a very solid season to a career in which he has been brilliant or terrible, but rarely in between. Solid is good enough, as his ability to eat innings and pitch on short rest makes him much more valuable than most pitchers who are around the league average.

Brian Rose, Starter, age 22

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  5.65  32 32   7 10  0  158 196 20  48  94  .307
Prorated   BOS  5.65   8  8   2  2  0   38  47  5  11  22  .307
Actual     BOS  6.93   8  8   1  4  0   38  43  9  14  18  .285

After excellent 1997 season at AAA, he earned a regular spot in the rotation before being shut down for the year with an elbow problem. Doesn't have overpowering stuff, but knows how to pitch, though it's unclear whether that will be good enough for stardom at the big-league level. In the trade for Martinez, Boston gave Montreal a choice between Rose and Carl Pavano, and the Expos chose Pavano.

Bret Saberhagen, Starter, age 34

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  5.32  27 27   7  7  0  137 148 20  34  88  .275
Prorated   BOS  5.32  33 33   9  9  0  167 181 24  41 107  .275
Actual     BOS  3.96  31 31  15  8  0  175 181 22  29 100  .264

One of the most inspiring performances of the season. Some doctors have said that nobody has ever returned after suffering as much shoulder damage as Saberhagen was dealing with, but he came back to provide 175 solid innings and a few clutch starts when the team was reeling.

Derek Lowe, Swing man, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  5.47  34  4   4  5  0   81  96 11  30  52  .301
Prorated   BOS  5.47  50  6   6  7  0  119 141 16  44  77  .301
Actual     BOS  4.02  63 10   3  9  4  123 126  5  42  77  .267

Has emerged as an important member of the staff. So far, he's been more effective in the setup role, but the club is has given him a few opportunities to earn a spot in the rotation and will probably continue to do so. In one of Dan Duquette's best deals, he was acquired (along with Varitek) when Heathcliff Slocumb was traded to Seattle in 1997.

Steve Avery, Swing man, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  5.76  74  4   6  7  1  114 140 14  47  73  .305
Prorated   BOS  5.76  78  4   6  7  1  121 148 15  50  77  .305
Actual     BOS  5.02  34 23  10  7  0  124 128 14  64  57  .269

Was expected to be a lefty specialist in the bullpen, though not an especially good one, but was thrust into the rotation when Butch Henry and Brian Rose went down with injuries. Jimy Williams appeared to be the only person who still had faith in Avery, and while his performance was better than it's been in recent years, there are still no signs that he's ever going to return to the level he was at early in his career. Cincinnati just signed him to an incentive-laden contract for 1999.

John Wasdin, Swing man, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  4.93  40  0   3  4  0   69  74 11  21  45  .273
Prorated   BOS  4.93  57  0   4  6  0   98 105 16  30  64  .273
Actual     BOS  5.25  47  8   6  4  0   96 111 14  27  59  .288

Was traded straight up for Jose Canseco, and there were reports that some in the A's organization didn't want to let Wasdin go. But he's never found enough consistency to be successful, and there are signs tha the Red Sox are losing patience with him. He's still young, though, and he matched his projection for this year, so there's reason to believe he could have a decent career.

Jim Corsi, Middle reliever, age 36

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  3.86  53  0   3  3  0   56  56  3  23  37  .265
Prorated   BOS  3.86  61  0   3  3  0   64  64  3  26  42  .265
Actual     BOS  2.59  59  0   3  2  0   66  58  6  23  49  .235

A late bloomer who has been very successful in his thirties, he was a very important member of a good bullpen, and one of the reasons the Sox made the post-season. His 2.59 ERA is a little misleading, as his other stats are more consistent with an ERA in the low-to-mid threes.

Ron Mahay, Middle reliever, age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  3.79  53  0   3  2  0   55  52  5  26  53  .250
Prorated   BOS  3.79  27  0   2  1  0   27  26  3  13  27  .250
Actual     BOS  3.46  29  0   1  1  1   26  26  2  15  14  .263

Expected to be effective as a lefty specialist, he spent much of the season in the minors after his walk-strikeout ratio deteriorated. He's only a couple of years removed from a conversion from a CF to a pitcher, so he's still learning how to pitch.

Dennis Eckersley, Middle reliever, age 43

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  4.89  70  0   3  6 21   74  83 12  14  60  .283
Prorated   BOS  4.89  38  0   2  3 11   40  45  7   8  33  .283
Actual     BOS  4.76  50  0   4  1  1   40  46  6   8  22  .291

Before the season, there was much talk that Eckersley might be the closer. Tom Gordon had been quite good in that role for the last two months of 1997, but he was still new at it, and Eckersley was a hall-of-fame caliber veteran. Then Eck was awful in spring training and Gordon had the job from the start. Good thing, because Eckersley continued to be hit very hard until going on the DL with a sore shoulder in early June. The seven weeks of rest proved quite therapeutic, as he bounced back with a good stretch run to salvage his season. After the Red Sox failed to offer him arbitration, the Boston-area resident elected to retire rather than play one more season in another city.

Tom Gordon, Closer, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection BOS  4.07  70  0   5  4  3   73  73  6  32  59  .263
Prorated   BOS  4.07  70  0   5  4  3   73  73  6  32  59  .263
Actual     BOS  2.72  73  0   7  4 46   79  55  2  25  78  .191

One of the big reasons for the Sox' success in 1998, Gordon proved worthy of the closer role by blowing only one save opportunity all year. He's tenacious and throws hard, and is dominating when he can enter the game and immediately find the plate with that big-breaking, batter-freezing curve ball of his. So far, he's been able to do that most of the time.

Outlook

Could take a major step backward in 1999. There wasn't a single player on this team who had a season that was more than slightly below expectations, while quite a few others were better than they'd ever been. Some of those performances will prove to be flukes, and even if they still had Mo Vaughn, they'd need to add talent just to stay where they were.

The loss of Mo Vaughn doesn't have to be fatal. They have other guys who can play first base and contribute at the plate. They made a serious run at free agent Bernie Williams, and if they'd been successful, the gain in the outfield (Williams vs Lewis) may well have exceeded the loss at 1B (Stanley vs Vaughn). Williams has re-upped with the Yankees, but the Sox could still fill the void by trading for an outfielder (Jim Edmonds, Rondell White, and Raul Mondesi have all been rumored to be available at various times). But they don't have much trade bait, as they gave up a bunch of pitching prospects in the trades for Martinez, Stanley and Swindell. And if they can't find a creative way to add a big bat or two without subtracting too much somewhere else, they could really struggle next year.