Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- Chicago White Sox By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the Chicago White Sox did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 806 861 Runs allowed 884 931 Run Margin -78 -70 Wins 75 80 Pythagorean wins 74 75 Placement 3rd(T) 2nd After their trading deadline salary dump in 1997, the White Sox weren't expected to contend for the post-season last season and, despite finishing second in a very weak division, they didn't. Chicago based their hopes on a handful of established players (Thomas, Belle, Ventura and Johnson) and a bunch of rookies scoring enough runs to offset a weak pitching staff. On July 9th, they were last in their division with a 35-52 record. A strong second-half by Albert Belle and the resurgence of a rebuilt starting rotation propelled them to a 45-30 record (best in their division) after that. Chicago's run margin was about what we thought it would be, but they came very close to playing .500 ball in 1998 despite giving up 70 more runs than they scored. Key Position PlayersThe White Sox scored more runs than we had anticipated, as a huge season from Albert Belle and much better than expected production from Ray Durham and Mike Caruso offset poor seasons from Frank Thomas and Mike Cameron. Charlie O'Brien, C, age 37AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 176 36 9 0 4 15 20 8 18 1 37 0 1 .205 .304 .324 .628 18 Prorated CHA 155 32 8 0 4 13 18 7 16 1 33 0 1 .205 .304 .324 .628 16 Actual CHA 164 43 9 0 4 12 18 2 9 0 31 0 0 .262 .303 .390 .694 20 Actual ANA 11 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 .182 .250 .182 .432 1 Actual TOT 175 45 9 0 4 13 18 2 10 0 33 0 0 .257 .300 .377 .677 20 O'Brien hit somewhat better than we thought with the White Sox, but his production was still below the league average at the position. O'Brien went on the DL with a fractured thumb in July before being traded to the Angels for two class A pitchers. Chad Kreuter, C, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 363 79 16 2 6 35 35 2 40 0 95 0 2 .218 .298 .322 .620 35 Prorated CHA 254 55 11 1 4 24 24 1 28 0 66 0 1 .218 .298 .322 .620 24 Actual CHA 245 62 9 1 2 26 33 3 32 1 45 1 0 .253 .345 .322 .668 28 Actual ANA 7 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 .143 .250 .286 .536 1 Actual TOT 252 63 10 1 2 27 33 3 33 1 49 1 0 .250 .343 .321 .664 29 Like their other veteran catcher, he was traded to the Angels during the season, leaving the White Sox catching in the hands of rookies Robert Machado and Mark Johnson. Both Kreuter and O'Brien were brought in because of their skill in handling pitchers, but were unloaded when the staff floundered. Wil Cordero, 1B, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 473 129 21 0 13 67 61 7 28 7 95 0 0 .273 .323 .400 .722 58 Prorated CHA 345 94 15 0 9 49 45 5 20 5 69 0 0 .273 .323 .400 .722 43 Actual CHA 341 91 18 2 13 58 49 3 22 0 66 2 1 .267 .314 .446 .759 47 Cordero was a controversial free-agent signing after pleading guilty to four felony counts of spousal abuse the previous November. Chicago was his third team in the last four years, but despite the movement and turmoil, he's been very consistent over that period, never posting an OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) below .734 or above .761. Unfortunately, even the upper limit of that range is not good enough for a major league first baseman, something the White Sox must have realized when they released him following the season. Greg Norton, 1B/3B, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 67 16 4 0 3 10 10 0 7 1 15 1 1 .239 .307 .433 .740 9 Prorated CHA 295 70 18 0 13 44 44 0 31 4 66 4 4 .239 .307 .433 .740 39 Actual CHA 299 71 17 2 9 38 36 2 26 1 77 3 3 .237 .301 .398 .699 33 Split first base duties with Cordero and hit even worse than his teammate. No team in the AL had worse hitting first basemen last year than the White Sox. Norton showed good power at AAA in 1997, but has not produced yet in Chicago. He should move to third in 1999 now that the Sox have not resigned Ventura. Ray Durham, 2B, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 596 161 30 5 10 92 57 7 55 2 100 30 9 .270 .336 .388 .723 82 Prorated CHA 644 174 32 5 11 99 62 8 59 2 108 32 10 .270 .336 .388 .723 89 Actual CHA 635 181 35 8 19 125 67 6 73 3 105 36 9 .285 .363 .455 .818 113 Posted career highs in every major offensive category in 1998. While he's now one of the best second basemen in the AL with the bat, doubts still remain about his defense and he could ultimately wind up in the outfield. He was Chicago's only representative on the All-Star team. Mike Caruso, SS, age 21AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 394 97 13 4 0 49 35 4 13 0 29 13 9 .246 .276 .299 .576 32 Prorated CHA 521 128 17 5 0 65 46 5 17 0 38 17 12 .246 .276 .299 .576 42 Actual CHA 523 160 17 6 5 80 55 7 14 0 38 22 6 .306 .331 .390 .721 68 Picked up from the Giants when the Sox threw in the towel at the 1997 trading deadline, Caruso was an impact rookie for them last season. He was originally expected to back up Benji Gil, but Gil played himself off the team in spring training. Seldom struck out, almost never walked and had little power. At present, his batting average is the extent of his offensive contribution, but he's young (until Kerry Wood's call-up he was the youngest player in the majors) and has a good chance to either increase his power or develop some strike-zone judgement. Rookie Craig Wilson put in a strong bid to take Caruso's job when he hit .468 with three home runs in 13 games during his September call-up. Wilson is 28, however, and prior to last season had not hit over .300 at any minor league level. Robin Ventura, 3B, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 548 150 28 1 26 83 90 1 78 11 86 1 2 .274 .361 .471 .831 94 Prorated CHA 582 159 30 1 28 88 96 1 83 12 91 1 2 .274 .361 .471 .831 100 Actual CHA 590 155 31 4 21 84 91 1 79 15 111 1 1 .263 .349 .436 .785 92 Hit with less power than expected, but the biggest surprise surrounding Ventura was that he wasn't traded at some point during the season. A free agent following the season, he turned down a contract in spring training that would have brought him $7 million a year for four years. The gamble paid off, despite a mediocre season in 1998, when the Mets signed him to an even fatter contract following the year. Albert Belle, LF, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 554 153 36 1 33 91 109 5 62 9 88 5 2 .276 .351 .523 .874 98 Prorated CHA 624 172 41 1 37 102 123 6 70 10 99 6 2 .276 .351 .523 .874 110 Actual CHA 609 200 48 2 49 113 152 1 81 10 84 6 4 .328 .399 .655 1.055 158 Bounced back from an off-season to set White Sox single-season records for HRs, total bases and RBIs. He already holds the Cleveland records for HRs and total bases. On a better team (and with a more congenial personality), he would have been a lock for the AL MVP. As it was, he got almost no support. It's hard to imagine the kind of hole his absence is going to create in the middle of Chicago's offense. Mike Cameron, CF, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 608 152 29 8 25 108 87 9 79 2 161 33 9 .250 .341 .447 .789 99 Prorated CHA 380 95 18 5 16 68 54 6 49 1 101 21 6 .250 .341 .447 .789 62 Actual CHA 396 83 16 5 8 53 43 6 37 0 101 27 11 .210 .285 .336 .621 39 A huge disappointment for Chicago in 1998. Instead of improving on his performance of a year earlier, he regressed in power, average, plate discipline and stolen base percentage. He did manage to fetch Paul Konerko from the Reds (another disappointment, but one with a much higher ceiling) in a trade following the season. Prospect Brian Simmons (who hit well in a brief September appearance) may take over the job next year. Jeff Abbott, CF/RF/LF, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 127 37 7 0 3 20 15 1 8 0 14 2 1 .291 .338 .417 .756 17 Prorated CHA 243 71 13 0 6 38 29 2 15 0 27 4 2 .291 .338 .417 .756 33 Actual CHA 244 68 14 1 12 33 41 0 9 1 28 3 3 .279 .298 .492 .790 35 Another player in the Sox youth movement, he finally got a chance to play regularly when management soured on Mike Cameron, but his mediocre defensive play might force him out of centerfield. Has hit over .300 at every stop in a four year minor league career and could be a productive right or left fielder. Magglio Ordonez, RF/CF, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 583 166 34 0 17 68 86 4 24 4 70 13 11 .285 .314 .431 .745 72 Prorated CHA 544 155 32 0 16 63 80 4 22 4 65 12 10 .285 .314 .431 .745 67 Actual CHA 535 151 25 2 14 70 65 9 28 1 53 9 7 .282 .326 .415 .741 67 Was the MVP of the American Association in 1997 before hitting very well during his September call-up. Some thought that Ordonez had a legitimate chance to be the AL Rookie of the Year, and while he fell short of achieving that goal (finishing even behind teammate Mike Caruso in the balloting), he did about as well as we expected. Frank Thomas, DH/1B, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHA 627 210 36 0 43 128 146 5 135 22 89 1 1 .335 .451 .598 1.049 173 Prorated CHA 575 193 33 0 39 117 134 5 124 20 82 1 1 .335 .451 .598 1.049 159 Actual CHA 585 155 35 2 29 109 109 6 110 2 93 7 0 .265 .381 .480 .861 116 Frank Thomas had one the of the greatest breakdown seasons of all time in 1998. Coming into the year, he had a career on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of 1.053. His OPS last year was .861, or .192 lower than his established level. If you look at players with at least 2000 plate appearances coming into a season in which they batted at least 500 times (so we eliminate those suffering through injury-shortened seasons), Thomas' drop in 1998 was among the 35 greatest in baseball history. And this is not a list you want to be on: of the other 34 players, only two of them, Wade Boggs in 1992 and Orlando Cepeda in 1968, ever reached their previously established level again. Thomas has a few things going for him: he's the sixth youngest in the group and the best hitter. The second highest OPS among these players was the .988 that Mantle had hit prior to his 1968 campaign. His off-year has been blamed on personal rather than physical problems and, assuming that these problems can be resolved, that's another hopeful sign for White Sox fans. Other players on the list of greatest breakdown seasons since 1960 are Willie Mays (1967), Hank Aaron (1975), Brooks Robinson (1975), John Mayberry (1976), Pete Rose (1983), Ted Simmons (1984) and Alvin Davis (1991). Key PitchersThe good news for the White Sox pitchers was that management did not decide to move the fences in for 1998. Had they done that, the pitching staff might have allowed 1000 runs last season. Chicago headed north last March with a starting rotation of Baldwin, Navarro, Eyre, Bere and Sirotka. All but Sirotka would be sent to the bullpen during the season because of poor performance; only Baldwin would be able to return and pitch effectively. Their slow start cost pitching coach Mike Pazik his job by the end of May, a move that was not second-guessed after the revamped staff turned it around during the last three months of the season. At the beginning of July, the team ERA stood at 5.82; after that, the pitchers posted a mark of 4.63. Mike Sirotka, Starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 5.31 27 27 7 10 0 159 192 20 49 112 .300 Prorated CHA 5.31 35 35 9 13 0 207 249 26 64 145 .300 Actual CHA 5.06 33 33 14 15 0 212 255 30 47 128 .300 Sirotka was Chicago's only starter who managed to stay in the rotation all season. At this point, he would probably have to be considered the ace of their staff. Jaime Navarro, Starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 5.01 32 32 10 13 0 205 239 22 67 130 .294 Prorated CHA 5.01 29 29 9 12 0 183 214 20 60 116 .294 Actual CHA 6.36 37 27 8 16 1 173 223 30 77 71 .315 Another awful year for Navarro. In 1997, he led the AL in hits, runs and earned runs allowed. Last year, he had to settle for leading the league in wild pitches and losses. It could have been even worse had the White Sox not dropped him from the starting rotation late in the season. Another bad sign for Navarro: his strikeout total was cut in half from 1997 to 1998, while his walks allowed increased. He's signed for another two seasons at $5 million per year. James Baldwin, Starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 4.49 32 32 10 12 0 206 211 24 80 157 .265 Prorated CHA 4.49 25 25 8 10 0 164 168 19 64 125 .265 Actual CHA 5.32 37 24 13 6 0 159 176 18 60 108 .278 Poor pitching cost him his job in the starting rotation in May. After getting hit hard by the cross-town Cubs on June 7th, his ERA stood at 9.06. He turned his season around after that. Within two weeks, he was back in the starting rotation and had a 11-3 record with a 3.41 ERA the rest of the way. Jason Bere, Starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 5.58 32 32 8 10 0 150 161 23 98 131 .275 Prorated CHA 5.58 18 18 5 6 0 86 92 13 56 75 .275 Actual CHA 6.45 18 15 3 7 0 84 98 14 58 53 .293 Actual CIN 4.12 9 7 3 2 0 44 39 3 20 31 .242 Actual TOT 5.65 27 22 6 9 0 127 137 17 78 84 .276 Bere posted a 7.08 ERA in three injury-plagued seasons from 1995 to 1997. He continued his ineffective pitching again last year until finally being bumped from the starting rotation at the beginning of July. It either says something about Chicago's patience or (more likely) their lack of acceptable alternatives that they were willing to stay that long with Bere. He sulked for a little more than a week in the bullpen before the White Sox finally released him. Jim Parque, Starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual CHA 5.10 21 21 7 5 0 113 135 14 49 77 .299 Considered a good prospect, Parque got his chance toward the end of May when Baldwin pitched poorly. The Sox selected him in the 1997 draft with a pick they received from losing Alex Fernandez to the Marlins. While he didn't pitch particularly well last year, he's very much a part of the club's plans for 1999. Scott Eyre, Starter/Middle Relief, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 6.12 32 32 8 13 0 163 195 27 89 132 .296 Prorated CHA 6.12 20 20 5 8 0 104 125 17 57 84 .296 Actual CHA 5.38 33 17 3 8 0 107 114 24 64 73 .271 Eyre began the season in the starting rotation before his lack of success got him demoted to the bullpen. Pitched much better in his limited relief work (3.60 ERA) than he did as a starter (5.79). Jim Abbott, Starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual CHA 4.55 5 5 5 0 0 32 35 2 12 14 .292 I suppose it's a stretch to call Abbott one of Chicago's key pitchers; any contribution from him was a surprise. He didn't pitch as well as his 5-0 record would indicate, but the same could be probably said of the 2-18 mark he posted for the Angels the last time he appeared in the major leagues. The White Sox will give him a long look next spring. John Snyder, Starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual CHA 4.80 15 14 7 2 0 86 96 14 23 52 .286 No projection. Two years earlier, he had undergone an elbow ligament transplant. Last season, he went 7-8 with a 4.64 ERA at AA. Put together a fine season in 1998, going 14-5 between AAA and Chicago. In his first ML game, he gave up 6 runs in 1 2/3 innings at Houston for an ERA of 32.40. It was his only relief appearance of the year. As a starter, he had more success. According to manager Jerry Manuel, "This guy could be part of the puzzle to at least get us to mediocrity." Bill Simas, Closer, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 4.78 70 0 4 4 2 70 75 6 35 68 .277 Prorated CHA 4.78 64 0 4 4 2 63 68 5 32 62 .277 Actual CHA 3.57 60 0 4 3 18 71 54 12 22 56 .206 Simas took over for Karchner when he went on the DL and was one of the few pleasant surprises among White Sox pitchers in 1998. A bad September cost him his closer job. Before that, he had a 2.48 ERA. Matt Karchner, Closer, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 4.46 70 0 4 5 24 71 74 8 35 50 .271 Prorated CHA 4.46 37 0 2 3 13 37 39 4 19 27 .271 Actual CHA 5.15 32 0 2 4 11 37 33 2 19 30 .243 Actual CHN 5.14 29 0 3 1 0 28 30 6 14 22 .265 Expected to be the closer in 1998, Karcher went on the DL in May with a hernia operation. Suffered with a groin pull for most of July before being traded to the Cubs. By that time, he'd lost his closer job due to the injuries and ineffective pitching. Bob Howry, Middle Relief/Closer, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual CHA 3.15 44 0 0 3 9 54 37 7 19 51 .194 We didn't do a projection for him. He spent 1997 splitting time between to AA teams (having come to the Sox organization in the same trade that brought them Caruso) and finished up with a 4.52 ERA. Pitched well for the Sox AAA team and did even better after being called up to the parent club in June. By the end of the season, he had taken over the closer role from Simas. Carlos Castillo, Middle Relief, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 4.25 34 4 2 2 0 72 68 8 31 47 .247 Prorated CHA 4.25 47 6 3 3 0 99 94 11 43 65 .247 Actual CHA 5.11 54 2 6 4 0 100 94 17 35 64 .246 One of the young pitchers the White Sox were counting on, Castillo had trouble keeping the ball in the park and was briefly sent back to the minors in late August. Keith Foulke, Middle Relief, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 5.47 44 4 5 5 0 100 121 15 31 71 .301 Prorated CHA 5.47 26 2 3 3 0 60 72 9 18 42 .301 Actual CHA 4.13 54 0 3 2 1 65 51 9 20 57 .213 Suffered from a shoulder spur much of the second half of the season before undergoing surgery to repair it in late August. While he was healthy, he pitched much better than we thought he would. OutlookAlbert Belle had the best (as opposed to the most) offensive season in the AL last year and the White Sox let him walk away from the team for about a $1.4 million a year. The team will probably not be able to recover from the blow of losing both Belle and Ventura in 1999. To be sure, Frank Thomas should make up some of those lost runs by returning to form. And trading for Konerko was a good move. Hopefully, the White Sox will put him at first base and see what he can do over the course of a full season. Even if he's a bust, he'll probably do at least as well as the Cordero/Norton team did in 1998. If nothing else, trading away Cameron means that someone else will be playing center for Chicago, and that's probably good news. Pitching is still a big question mark. It looks as though the team is expecting Abbott to fill one of the starting roles. The odds of him pitching effectively over the course of the entire season are about the same as, well, Navarro doing the same thing. All in all, things look pretty bleak for fans of the White Sox in 1999, whose team currently plays in the newest old ballpark in the largest small market in all of baseball. |
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