Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- Chicago Cubs By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the Chicago Cubs did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 803 831 Runs allowed 811 792 Run Margin -8 39 Wins 82 89 Pythagorean wins 80 85 Placement 4th 2nd GM Ed Lynch was busy last winter, signing free-agents Jeff Blauser and Rod Beck and trading for Mickey Morandini and Henry Rodriguez. He didn't exactly get a vote of confidence from team president Andy MacPhail, who predicted in late March that his team would win 80 games. That's about the way it looked to us too, but then Kerry Wood sparked an early winning streak with his amazing 20 strikeout performance, Sammy Sosa started to hit homers at an incredible pace, and the next thing we knew, the Cubs were in the play-offs. It was a classic case of a "win now" strategy -- in just about every case, a veteran player was brought in to replace a younger, less experienced one. It's a easy strategy to criticize when it doesn't work, but in the case of Chicago, it paid off with a couple of extra games in late September and early October. Key Position PlayersThe Cubs scored slightly more runs than we expected. Those 28 extra runs can probably be safely credited to Sammy Sosa's MVP hitting spree. Of course, there were other players who exceeded our expectations: Brant Brown, Jose Hernandez, Mickey Morandini, Henry Rodriguez, as well as a couple of veterans picked up off the waiver wire (Glenallen Hill and Gary Gaetti) who managed to hit a combined .336 with a .583 slugging percentage for the Cubs. There were also some disappointments: Jeff Blauser, Lance Johnson, Kevin Orie and Scott Servais. Still, it's fair to say that if Sosa had hit a measily 50 home runs in 1998, the team's offense would have dropped under 800 runs and the Giants (and not the Cubs) would've had the honor of losing to the Braves in the first round of the playoffs. Scott Servais, C, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 541 138 30 0 11 52 70 12 38 7 87 0 2 .255 .315 .372 .686 62 Prorated CHN 322 82 18 0 7 31 42 7 23 4 52 0 1 .255 .315 .372 .686 37 Actual CHN 325 72 15 1 7 35 36 5 26 6 51 1 0 .222 .289 .338 .627 30 He had a disappointing year at the plate, his worst since batting .195 with Houston in 1994, and will probably have to battle Tyler Houston and Sandy Martinez for the starting job in 1999. Tyler Houston, C/3B, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 71 20 4 0 2 7 11 0 3 0 13 1 0 .282 .307 .423 .729 9 Prorated CHN 256 72 14 0 7 25 40 0 11 0 47 4 0 .282 .307 .423 .729 32 Actual CHN 255 65 7 1 9 26 33 0 13 1 53 2 2 .255 .290 .396 .686 28 Went on the DL with hamstring problems in late May. By July, he seemed to have won the starting job, but continued to be platooned with Servais batting against lefties. Although Houston had a better year last year than in 1997 (especially in the power department), we expected his improvement to be slightly greater. Looking back, his rookie season (when he hit .317 in limited duty for the Braves and Cubs) was probably a fluke. His highest average as a minor leaguer was .259 and his performance in 1998 year would seem to be a truer indication of his ability. Mark Grace, 1B, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 545 170 37 3 10 85 76 2 74 5 44 2 3 .312 .392 .446 .838 96 Prorated CHN 605 189 41 3 11 94 84 2 82 6 49 2 3 .312 .392 .446 .838 106 Actual CHN 595 184 39 3 17 92 89 3 93 8 56 4 7 .309 .401 .471 .872 113 One of the more consistent players in the game, Grace turned in another strong season in 1998. We had expected a slight drop-off in performance due to his age, but he responded with a season very much like his previous efforts. Mickey Morandini, 2B, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 498 135 27 4 2 67 34 8 52 0 81 16 9 .271 .347 .353 .700 64 Prorated CHN 586 159 32 5 2 79 40 9 61 0 95 19 11 .271 .347 .353 .700 75 Actual CHN 582 172 20 4 8 93 53 9 72 4 84 13 1 .296 .380 .385 .765 90 Morandini came to the Cubs from Philadelphia in a trade for Doug Glanville and hit well during his first season in Chicago. He faded badly down the stretch, however. After August 8th, when his average stood at .329, he hit only .213 with five extra base hits over his last 169 at-bats. Jeff Blauser, SS, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 554 150 29 3 18 94 68 18 74 5 116 8 1 .271 .371 .431 .803 94 Prorated CHN 368 100 19 2 12 62 45 12 49 3 77 5 1 .271 .371 .431 .803 63 Actual CHN 361 79 11 3 4 49 26 8 60 1 93 2 2 .219 .340 .299 .639 42 One of the Cubs big free-agent acquisitions prior to the season, Blauser went from his best to his worst ML season. Only twice since 1989 had Blauser failed to post a slugging percentage over .400. He would finish 1998 with a .299 mark. Went on the disabled list at the end of August with bone chips in his right elbow and saw almost no action the rest of the year. Manny Alexander, SS/2B/3B, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 69 17 3 1 1 10 6 1 4 0 15 4 1 .246 .297 .362 .660 8 Prorated CHN 266 66 12 4 4 39 23 4 15 0 58 15 4 .246 .297 .362 .660 30 Actual CHN 264 60 10 1 5 34 25 1 18 1 66 4 1 .227 .278 .330 .608 24 He played more than expected because of injuries to Blauser, and while he hit worse than he had in 1997, his OPS almost exactly matched his career average. Kevin Orie, 3B, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 536 148 36 5 14 63 76 5 59 5 82 3 2 .276 .350 .440 .790 82 Prorated CHN 202 56 14 2 5 24 29 2 22 2 31 1 1 .276 .350 .440 .790 31 Actual CHN 204 37 14 0 2 24 21 3 18 0 35 1 1 .181 .253 .279 .533 15 Actual FLO 175 46 8 1 6 23 17 5 14 2 24 1 0 .263 .335 .423 .758 25 Actual TOT 379 83 22 1 8 47 38 8 32 2 59 2 1 .219 .291 .346 .636 39 A huge disappointment at the plate for the Cubs, Orie went from starting third baseman to AAA by the beginning of June. He was called back up when Brant Brown was hurt, then traded to the Marlins for Felix Heredia. Once in Florida, he returned to the form we'd predicted for him. Jose Hernandez, 3B/SS/LF/CF, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 121 30 5 2 4 20 16 0 9 2 32 2 1 .248 .298 .421 .719 15 Prorated CHN 485 120 20 8 16 80 64 0 36 8 128 8 4 .248 .298 .421 .719 58 Actual CHN 488 124 23 7 23 76 75 1 40 3 140 4 6 .254 .311 .471 .782 67 Hernandez did everything but catch and pitch for the Cubs. He played third base when Orie didn't hit, moved to center-field when Brown was injured, played short when Blauser was hurt and spelled Rodriguez in left. All this moving around didn't seem to affect his offense, as Hernandez had a fine season at the plate. He still doesn't walk much (and strikes out a lot), but he has much more power than is traditionally associated with utility men. Gary Gaetti, 3B, age 39AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SLN 197 51 10 1 8 25 29 3 15 2 37 1 1 .259 .318 .442 .760 27 Prorated SLN 312 81 16 2 13 40 46 5 24 3 59 2 2 .259 .318 .442 .760 43 Actual CHN 128 41 11 0 8 21 27 5 12 1 23 0 0 .320 .397 .594 .991 31 Actual SLN 306 81 23 1 11 39 43 5 31 1 39 1 1 .265 .339 .454 .793 46 Actual TOT 434 122 34 1 19 60 70 10 43 2 62 1 1 .281 .356 .495 .852 76 The Cubs picked up Gaetti on August 20th (his 40th birthday) and the veteran third baseman responded by hitting a ton for the next six weeks. Along with the signing of Glenallen Hill, this was another cheap late season acquisition that turned out exceedingly well. Henry Rodriguez, LF, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 578 145 34 2 35 74 102 3 46 7 178 3 1 .251 .307 .498 .806 88 Prorated CHN 433 109 25 1 26 55 76 2 34 5 133 2 1 .251 .307 .498 .806 66 Actual CHN 415 104 21 1 31 56 85 0 54 7 113 1 3 .251 .334 .530 .864 74 Rodriguez, another of Chicago's key off-season acquisition, had a fine season. He improved his walk-to-strikeout again in 1998, although there is still quite a bit of room for further strides in this area. He hit his last home run on August 19th and had only one more RBI after twisting his ankle four days later. Glenallen Hill, LF, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 557 150 41 3 24 76 95 5 36 2 122 11 6 .269 .316 .483 .799 83 Prorated SEA 255 69 19 1 11 35 44 2 17 1 56 5 3 .269 .316 .483 .799 38 Actual SEA 259 75 20 2 12 37 33 3 14 1 45 1 1 .290 .332 .521 .853 39 Actual CHN 131 46 5 0 8 26 23 0 14 1 34 0 0 .351 .414 .573 .986 31 Chicago picked up Hill on waivers from Seattle in early July. They gambled that the offense he provided would make up for his defensive liabilities, and considering how he hit over the second half of the season, it was a gamble they won. Lance Johnson, CF, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 642 201 26 15 8 105 62 1 45 6 43 39 14 .313 .357 .438 .795 102 Prorated CHN 308 96 12 7 4 50 30 0 22 3 21 19 7 .313 .357 .438 .795 49 Actual CHN 304 85 8 4 2 51 21 0 26 1 22 10 6 .280 .335 .352 .687 36 A variety of injuries kept Johnson out of the lineup from April until mid-July. His batting average stood at .171 on August 1st, but he hit .342 over the rest of the season to help fuel the Cubs pennant drive. He went on the disabled list for the first time in his career in 1997, but has now spent large parts of his last two seasons out of action. Brant Brown, CF/LF, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 70 19 4 1 3 10 10 1 4 0 13 1 1 .271 .320 .486 .806 11 Prorated CHN 355 96 20 5 15 51 51 5 20 0 66 5 5 .271 .320 .486 .806 53 Actual CHN 347 101 17 7 14 56 48 1 30 2 95 4 5 .291 .348 .501 .850 61 Took over CF when Johnson was injured in April and hit very well until he hurt his shoulder at the end of June. While he played more and hit better than expected, Brown's 1998 season will be remembered most for the dropped fly-ball that cost the Cubs a critical late September game with Milwaukee. Were it not for a slump by the Mets and a Cubs playoff victory over the Giants, Brown would've had his career defined by that error. He was recently traded to the Pirates for pitcher Jon Lieber. Sammy Sosa, RF, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CHN 575 145 26 3 35 86 109 4 44 9 150 21 9 .252 .308 .490 .798 83 Prorated CHN 662 167 30 3 40 99 126 5 51 10 173 24 10 .252 .308 .490 .798 95 Actual CHN 643 198 20 0 66 134 158 1 73 14 171 18 9 .308 .377 .647 1.024 149 Sosa shortened his swing at the start of the season and made an effort to go to right field more. Although it was intended to cut down on his power, it was supposed to increase his batting average. It worked. On May 24th, he was hitting .333 with 9 home runs in 49 games. His walks were up and no one was complaining that he was on a pace to hit only 30 four-baggers. He hit two on May 25th, taking over the team leadership from Henry Rodriguez, and starting Sosa on an amazing streak of 57 homers in his last 110 games. Suddenly no one was laughing at the Cubs' front office for giving Sammy a contract worth more than $10 million a year two years ago. An interesting question is: what do we expect him to do next? We're in uncharted territory here. With 36, 40 and 36 homers in the three seasons prior to 1998, Sosa had a pretty well established level of power. Do we treat this past season as a fluke? After all, as a home run hitter, he seems a lot more like Roger Maris than either Babe Ruth or Mark McGwire. Or do we factor in the 80+ homer pace he was able to maintain for two-thirds of a season? Key PitchersChicago allowed 19 fewer runs than expected, and unlike other teams which finished about where we thought they would but with vastly different players contributing, the Cubs had a very stable staff in 1998. By the middle of April, their starting rotation was Clark, Tapani, Gonzalez, Traschel and Woods. Their closer was Beck. Gonzalez was lost for the last two months of the season and Woods missed some time down the stretch, but these starting pitchers accounted for 146 of the team's starts and Beck was the closer all season long. Kevin Tapani, Starter, age 34Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHN 4.54 32 32 10 13 0 212 221 29 57 152 .270 Prorated CHN 4.54 34 34 11 14 0 224 233 31 60 160 .270 Actual CHN 4.85 35 34 19 9 0 219 244 30 62 136 .284 Tapani was the leading winner for the Cubs last year despite pitching a slightly worse than we'd anticipated. Managed to go 11-3 over the last three months of the season despite an ERA of 5.50. Steve Trachsel, Starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHN 4.48 32 32 10 12 0 195 198 27 64 142 .265 Prorated CHN 4.48 34 34 11 13 0 210 213 29 69 153 .265 Actual CHN 4.46 33 33 15 8 0 208 204 27 84 149 .260 Except for his won-lost record, he did just about as expected in 1998. Trachsel has now pitched 200 or more innings for three years in a row and has spent only two weeks on the disabled list during his five year career. Kerry Wood, Starter, age 21Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHN 3.83 27 4 4 2 0 49 40 3 52 69 .223 Prorated CHN 3.83 12 6 0 142 116 9 150 199 .223 Actual CHN 3.40 26 26 13 6 0 167 117 14 85 233 .196 Sosa may have made Kerry Wood only the second biggest story in Chicago last season, but he was the most exciting rookie pitcher to arrive on the scene since Dwight Gooden. A tired arm and sore elbow in August and September cost him the rookie strikeout record. Everyone knew he could pitch, but few expected his control to be this good, this quickly. Mark Clark, Starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHN 4.83 32 32 10 13 0 209 231 26 57 131 .282 Prorated CHN 4.83 33 33 10 13 0 214 237 27 58 134 .282 Actual CHN 4.84 33 33 9 14 0 214 236 23 48 161 .278 Suffered from tendinitis over the second half of the season, but still managed to pitch over 200 innings for the Cubs. Had the worst record of Chicago's starting five because his teammates scored only an average of 4.15 runs a game for him. The run support for the other four starters ranged from 5.24 to 5.35. Won't be back next year, as he signed with Texas as a free agent. Jeremi Gonzalez, Starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHN 3.78 32 32 12 10 0 195 176 20 82 142 .241 Prorated CHN 3.78 19 19 7 6 0 116 104 12 49 84 .241 Actual CHN 5.32 20 20 7 7 0 110 124 13 41 70 .281 Went on the DL on July 25th with elbow problems and was done for the season. He will probably not be recovered from the surgery until at least the All-Star break next year. Rod Beck, Closer, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHN 3.93 70 0 4 6 27 76 77 10 14 56 .264 Prorated CHN 3.93 78 0 4 7 30 84 85 11 16 62 .264 Actual CHN 3.02 81 0 3 4 51 80 86 11 20 81 .269 A free-agent signee who was cut adrift by the Giants after they traded for Robb Nen, Beck finished second to Trevor Hoffman in saves in 1998. He ended up pitching a lot of games last year, and although he didn't seem to fade down the stretch (his two worst months were May and June), he looked exhausted in the play-offs and might end up paying for his overwork in 1999. Terry Adams, Middle Relief, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHN 3.79 53 0 3 4 0 55 56 2 26 45 .269 Prorated CHN 3.79 73 0 4 6 0 75 77 3 36 62 .269 Actual CHN 4.33 63 0 7 7 1 73 72 7 41 73 .255 Adams finished up 1997 as the Cubs closer, but was pushed aside when the Cubs signed Beck. Shoulder problems contributed to his second-half slide and by the end of August, he was back in the minor leagues. Terry Mulholland, Middle Relief, age 35Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHN 5.10 27 27 7 10 0 162 186 22 42 78 .291 Prorated CHN 5.10 18 18 5 7 0 110 126 15 28 53 .291 Actual CHN 2.89 70 6 6 5 3 112 100 7 39 72 .235 Used most of the season out of the bullpen, he got a handful of starts in September when Wood was ailing and posted a 3-0 record with a 1.82 ERA. All in all, it was a surprising comeback season for a pitcher who hadn't recorded an ERA under 4.00 since 1993. He was rewarded for his fine work with a 2-year, $5.9 million contract and will no doubt return to the starting rotation in 1999. Bob Patterson, Middle Relief, age 39Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHN 3.48 70 0 3 2 1 52 45 7 12 50 .233 Prorated CHN 3.48 36 0 2 1 1 26 23 4 6 25 .233 Actual CHN 7.52 33 0 1 1 1 20 36 2 12 17 .391 Coming off a string of the years with ERAs under 3.50, Patterson was expected to do more of the same in 1998. Instead, he suffered from leg problems early, pitched poorly when he was healthy, and was released in mid-July. His major contribution to the Cubs last year was to open up a roster spot for Kerry Woods, who replaced Patterson when he went on the DL in April. OutlookIf history is any guide, Cubs fans will be in for a long summer in 1999. Consider the last two times Chicago has made the playoffs: after losing to San Diego in the LCS in 1984, the Cubs suffered through four consecutive losing seasons; they reached the post-season again in 1989 only to follow-up that success with three straight losing campaigns. And there is no good reason to expect them to break the pattern next year. So many things had to go right for the Cubs to slip into the playoffs last year. Sosa will probably not hit 50 home runs next season, much less top 60; Gaetti and Hill are pretty good bets to revert to the form that got them released from St. Louis and Seattle; Morandini or Grace (or both) are due to start the decline phases of their careers; Clark has left for Texas, and while Jon Lieber should be able to replace him in the rotation, it's not likely that the rest of the key pitchers on the staff will continue to stay as healthy as they've been. There will, no doubt, be some pleasant surprises come 1999, but the potential down-side to this team is enormous. Given the age of so many of the key players on the roster, it's hard to imagine there being enough room for the kind of break-through seasons the Cubs are going to have to have if any of the scenarios described above come true.
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