Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
|
|
|
Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
|
|
1998 Post-Season Review -- Cincinnati Reds By Tom Tippett Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs scored 839 750 Runs allowed 749 760 Run margin 90 -10 Wins 88 77 Pythagorean wins 90 80 Placement 1st 4th I've been looking forward to writing this review ever since the season began. Why? Because it was the projection that strayed furthest from conventional wisdom. Because it seemed that we had more faith in this team than did its own front office. And because I was rooting for the new management team to be successful enough to convince baseball to keep the club in their hands, rather than return it to the stewardship of Marge Schott. Back in March, you could throw a blanket over most of the teams in the NL Central. There was no clear favorite, and at least five teams had a chance to win the division. The Cards and Astros were arguably the strongest, but both were going to begin the season with a meaningful chunk of their starting rotation on the DL. That brought them back to the pack. And when we ran our computer simulation five times and averaged the results, we were as surprised as anyone when the Reds posted the highest average win total with 88. That's not a very impressive total for a division winner, but it was enough to edge St. Louis and Houston by three and four games, respectively. After the season, we compared our projected standings to those of fourteen national publications and found that, despite missing three of the division winners, ours were closest to the real final standings . We had Seattle winning the AL West, but so did the other fourteen. We had the Dodgers winning the NL West, as did eight of the others. Nobody picked LA lower than third, so there was general agreement that they were serious contenders. But we were very much alone with our pick of the Reds. One other publication placed them third, one placed them fourth, three had them fifth, and nine put them in the basement. Why did we think they could contend? Mainly because they had a decent pitching staff (anchored by Burba, Tomko and Shaw) and a group of promising young players who seemed capable of scoring a lot of runs. Eddie Taubensee looked like a decent hitter for a catcher, with a .268 average plus 18 doubles and 10 homers in a half-season in 1997. Jon Nunnally entered the season with 32 doubles and 33 homers in 623 career atbats. Willie Greene swatted 26 homers in 495 atbats in 1997, and drew a very impressive 78 walks. Reggie Sanders hit 33 homers in 599 atbats spanning 1996 and 1997. We thought they might use a LF platoon of Melvin Nieves (20 homers in 359 atbats in 1997) and Chris Stynes (.314 career average entering 1998). If Barry Larkin could come back from neck surgery to have a season anywhere near his career norms (.299 with loads of walks and good power), it looked like this team could score enough to steal the flag in a division lacking a dominant team. But Reds management didn't see it that way. During spring training, they talked openly about 1998 being a rebuilding year, and then translated their words into action by trading staff ace Dave Burba to Cleveland for Sean Casey, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, the day before the season was to start. This move left me with very mixed feelings. On one hand, I was disappointed that they had apparently written off the season before it started, when it appeared they had a legitimate chance to win the division. On the other hand, who wouldn't want to make that deal? Burba's a good pitcher, but he entered 1998 as a 31-year-old with a 4.26 career ERA and only 87 career starts under his belt. Trading him for a 23-year-old phenom is a terrific long-term move. The Reds lack of commitment to short-term competitiveness almost cost them their best player, Barry Larkin, who became increasingly upset as the club struggled early in the year, and went public with a trade demand on more than one occasion. But it didn't stop them from trading the present for the future a second time in mid-season, when they dealt 32-year-old closer Jeff Shaw to the Dodgers for 22-year-old Paul Konerko, Baseball America's 1997 Minor League Player of the Year. As it turned out, 88 wins was nowhere near enough to win the division, as the Astros led the league in scoring and got a lot of pitching help from surprising sources -- Sean Bergman, Jose Lima, and Randy Johnson -- en route to 102 wins. (Bergman and Lima surprised by pitching quite well, Johnson by ending up on the Astros roster for the stretch drive.) Management was right in the end. They didn't really have the talent to compete this year, and building the club for the long run was the right strategy. But it still bothers me to see a team with a nice mix of young talent and capable veterans concede the race before the first pitch was thrown on opening day. So I was very happy to see the Reds battle back to finish fourth despite the loss of Burba and Shaw (both of whom pitched well for their new clubs), the freak injury (shattered eye socket) that cost Casey the first few weeks of the season, the tragic death of Nieves' infant son, disappointing seasons from Nunnally and Sanders, and Barry Larkin's neck surgery. I still think they had/have a lot more talent than most people give them credit for. Key Position PlayersThe offense fell 89 runs short of our projections this year despite positive surprises from Bret Boone and Dmitri Young plus Barry Larkin's successful return from off-season surgery. The main reason for the decline was the drop in homerun production from Willie Greene, Melvin Nieves, Jon Nunnally and Reggie Sanders. Manager Jack McKeon did a lot of tinkering with the lineup, and I've got to believe the constant shuffling of players had a negative effect on the offense. Ed Taubensee, C, age 29 (on July 1, 1998)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 409 112 27 1 15 50 60 1 34 4 97 1 4 .274 .326 .455 .781 61 Prorated CIN 444 122 29 1 16 54 65 1 37 4 105 1 4 .274 .326 .455 .781 66 Actual CIN 431 120 27 0 11 61 72 0 52 6 93 1 0 .278 .352 .418 .769 67 Batted .358 and slugged .497 through the end of May, then came back to earth. His increased walks offset a slight decrease in homers.were up and his homers were down a little. Overall, the Reds got just what they had a right to expect. Brook Fordyce, C, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 215 50 12 1 5 22 25 1 15 2 32 2 1 .233 .283 .367 .651 23 Prorated CIN 145 34 8 1 3 15 17 1 10 1 22 1 1 .233 .283 .367 .651 15 Actual CIN 146 37 9 0 3 8 14 0 11 3 28 0 1 .253 .306 .377 .682 16 Entered the year with only 105 major-league atbats under his belt. Played a little more this year and basically matched his projections across the board. Sean Casey, 1B, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 69 21 5 0 2 9 16 1 5 0 10 0 0 .304 .360 .464 .824 12 Prorated CIN 322 98 23 0 9 42 75 5 23 0 46 0 0 .304 .360 .464 .824 56 Actual CIN 302 82 21 1 7 44 52 3 43 3 45 1 1 .272 .365 .417 .782 46 Was expected to have trouble finding a place to play in Cleveland, but was handed the 1B job after being traded to Cinci just before opening day. Before he could settle in, however, the orbital socket around his eye was smashed in a freak accident, and he missed the first month. Upon his return, he failed to hit and was demoted to AAA for a while. It didn't take him long to get his stroke back, and he batted an even .300 with 7 homers and 35 walks in the last three months of the season. Eduardo Perez, 1B, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 185 44 10 0 8 22 32 2 18 0 41 4 2 .238 .312 .422 .734 23 Prorated CIN 179 42 10 0 8 21 31 2 17 0 40 4 2 .238 .312 .422 .734 23 Actual CIN 172 41 4 0 4 20 30 2 21 2 45 0 1 .238 .325 .331 .656 20 We projected him as a platoon first baseman, but he ended up getting around the same amount of playing time as a fill-in while Casey was hurt or in the minors. Wasn't expected to hit much, but still came up short. The son of near-Hall-of-Famer Tony Perez, he's gotten quite a few chances, but it's hard to see how he can put together much of a career at this point. Roberto Petagine, 1B, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 63 16 4 0 3 10 12 1 10 1 15 0 0 .254 .360 .460 .820 11 Prorated CIN 66 17 4 0 3 11 13 1 11 1 16 0 0 .254 .360 .460 .820 12 Actual CIN 62 16 2 1 3 14 7 0 16 0 11 1 0 .258 .405 .468 .873 13 I don't understand why nobody's given this guy a real chance. He's been hammering AAA pitching for years, and that plus his plate discipline (58 walks in 365 career appearances) suggest that he ought to be able to hit major-league pitchers, too. Has signed to play in Japan next year. Bret Boone, 2B, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 499 115 26 2 10 49 59 5 41 2 104 5 3 .230 .292 .351 .643 51 Prorated CIN 582 134 30 2 12 57 69 6 48 2 121 6 3 .230 .292 .351 .643 60 Actual CIN 583 155 38 1 24 76 95 4 48 3 104 6 4 .266 .324 .458 .782 80 One of the biggest positive surprises in the majors this year. His average after the all-star break was only .240, but he maintained his power stats all year. After the season, he was traded to Atlanta in a multi-player deal that brought Denny Neagle. I think the Reds got more than they gave up in this deal, though if Boone continues to produce at anywhere near this level, the Braves will do quite well by it, too. Willie Greene, 3B/RF/LF, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 574 139 21 3 31 80 106 1 80 6 141 3 1 .242 .334 .451 .786 89 Prorated CIN 363 88 13 2 20 51 67 1 51 4 89 2 1 .242 .334 .451 .786 57 Actual CIN 356 96 18 1 14 57 49 3 56 2 80 6 3 .270 .372 .444 .816 62 Actual BAL 40 6 1 0 1 8 5 0 13 0 10 1 0 .150 .358 .250 .608 5 Actual TOT 396 102 19 1 15 65 54 3 69 2 90 7 3 .258 .370 .424 .794 67 Was traded to Baltimore for Jeffrey Hammonds despite exceeding his offensive projections while in Cincinnati, as his doubles and walks rose by more than enough to make up for the lost homers. I think this trade was mostly about a positional fit. Greene seems to have decent range at 3B but makes too many errors to hold onto that position. He's played some outfield, but Hammonds, if healthy, is a better defensive outfielder and has hit almost as well as Greene so far in his career. (Greene was recently designated for assignment by the Orioles because they don't feel there's any place for him to play in 1999.) Aaron Boone, 3B, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 71 19 4 1 3 10 11 0 3 0 11 2 1 .268 .293 .479 .772 10 Prorated CIN 195 52 11 3 8 27 30 0 8 0 30 5 3 .268 .293 .479 .772 27 Actual CIN 181 51 13 2 2 24 28 5 15 1 36 6 1 .282 .350 .409 .759 28 Wasn't expected to play much, but was the regular 3B after Greene was shipped to Baltimore. Didn't produce the homers the Reds were expecting, but made up for it with a higher average and more walks. Pokey Reese, 3B/SS, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 170 37 8 0 2 21 14 2 12 0 33 8 2 .218 .277 .300 .577 15 Prorated CIN 138 30 6 0 2 17 11 2 10 0 27 6 2 .218 .277 .300 .577 12 Actual CIN 133 34 2 2 1 20 16 0 14 1 28 3 2 .256 .322 .323 .645 14 Hasn't lived up to the hype yet, but then again, maybe the hype wasn't justified, as his batting average at AAA was in the .230s each of the past three years. This was his best offensive season since 1994, when he batted .269 and popped 12 homers in AA. Might get the everyday 2B job now that Boone's been traded, but it's hard to find any evidence suggesting that he'll ever be an asset at the plate. Barry Larkin, SS, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 476 141 31 4 19 92 62 6 82 6 50 33 8 .296 .403 .498 .901 103 Prorated CIN 524 155 34 4 21 101 68 7 90 7 55 36 9 .296 .403 .498 .901 113 Actual CIN 538 166 34 10 17 93 72 2 79 5 69 26 3 .309 .397 .504 .901 114 Despite surgery on his Achilles last September and on his neck this March, Larkin played 145 games and, except for a lower rate of steal attempts, produced at his normal level. One of the great players of our time, Larkin is growing increasingly frustrated by the long-term view of the Reds organization, and has requested a trade to a contender. Dmitri Young, LF/1B, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 392 108 21 4 9 54 47 2 38 4 66 7 6 .276 .340 .418 .759 55 Prorated CIN 530 146 28 5 12 73 64 3 51 5 89 9 8 .276 .340 .418 .759 75 Actual CIN 536 166 48 1 14 81 83 2 47 4 94 2 4 .310 .364 .481 .846 90 Made a very strong step forward this year, mainly by adding enough doubles to tie for second in the NL in that category. Chris Stynes, LF/RF/3B/2B, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 227 64 12 1 4 31 27 2 11 1 16 6 2 .282 .318 .396 .715 28 Prorated CIN 361 102 19 2 6 49 43 3 17 2 25 10 3 .282 .318 .396 .715 45 Actual CIN 347 88 10 1 6 52 27 4 32 1 36 15 1 .254 .323 .340 .663 42 In 1997, Stynes burst on the Cincinnati scene with a .348 batting average in 198 atbats after being acquired from Kansas City. His minor league numbers were less impressive, so his projections for 1998 were fairly modest -- a decent batting average, few walks, a little power. As it turned out, he walked more than expected, but came up short of expecations overall. He's a useful utility player, but has yet to demonstrate enough offense to be a regular at any position other than 2B. Reggie Sanders, CF/RF, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 534 135 33 4 28 89 85 6 71 5 156 28 15 .253 .346 .487 .833 88 Prorated CIN 474 120 29 4 25 79 75 5 63 4 138 25 13 .253 .346 .487 .833 78 Actual CIN 481 129 18 6 14 83 59 7 51 2 137 20 9 .268 .346 .418 .764 71 One of the major reasons why the Reds scored fewer runs than we projected, as Sanders lost a big chunk of his power. He's more of a RF than a CF, and with the club having traded for CF Mike Cameron, it's unlikely that Sanders will play much CF next year. But Sanders has been the subject of trade rumors for several months, so he could easily find himself on another roster next year. Pat Watkins, CF/RF, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 71 18 4 1 2 9 8 1 3 0 10 2 1 .254 .293 .423 .716 8 Prorated CIN 153 39 9 2 4 19 17 2 6 0 22 4 2 .254 .293 .423 .716 18 Actual CIN 147 39 8 1 2 11 15 1 8 0 26 1 3 .265 .300 .374 .674 16 Has hit for a high average in the minors during the past few seasons, but hasn't shown much power. Bounced between the Reds and Indianapolis this season before suffering a shoulder injury in August. Jon Nunnally, RF/CF, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 561 141 30 7 28 97 89 7 80 7 167 12 9 .251 .349 .480 .829 98 Prorated CIN 182 46 10 2 9 32 29 2 26 2 54 4 3 .251 .349 .480 .829 32 Actual CIN 174 36 9 0 7 29 20 1 34 3 38 3 4 .207 .335 .379 .714 23 Struggled early, lost his job, and was sent down to AAA in June. Didn't hit all that much in the minors, either, so his future seems uncertain. In my opinion, unless Nunnally has a major attitude problem, there are a bunch of teams (Red Sox?) that ought to hand him the RF job for a season and see what he does with it. If he could match his career averages in 600 plate appearances, he'd contribute a .251 average, 80 walks, and 26 homers. And he's young enough to get better. On the other hand, he hasn't faced lefties all that much (95 career ABs), so his numbers are a little inflated by having the platoon advantage 88% of the time. Still, I'd give him a shot, as his walks and power stats are quite good against lefties. Melvin Nieves, RF, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 364 87 20 3 19 52 58 6 36 4 145 1 4 .239 .315 .467 .782 53 Prorated CIN 131 31 7 1 7 19 21 2 13 1 52 0 1 .239 .315 .467 .782 19 Actual CIN 119 30 4 0 2 8 17 0 26 1 42 0 0 .252 .381 .336 .717 17 Personal matters dominated his season, as his 8-month-old son died in April of heart-related problems despite having undergone open-heart surgery three times in his young life. To add injury to heartbreak, Nieves began 1998 with double-hernia surgery in January and went under the knife again in September to repair damage to his shoulder. I'm not going to comment on his stats for this year, because they just don't seem all that important under the circumstances. Lenny Harris, OF/IF, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CIN 118 31 6 1 1 15 12 1 9 0 11 4 2 .263 .318 .356 .674 13 Prorated CIN 120 31 6 1 1 15 12 1 9 0 11 4 2 .263 .318 .356 .674 13 Actual CIN 122 36 8 0 0 12 10 1 8 2 9 1 3 .295 .338 .361 .699 12 Actual NYN 168 39 7 0 6 18 17 1 9 1 12 5 2 .232 .272 .381 .653 16 Actual TOT 290 75 15 0 6 30 27 2 17 3 21 6 5 .259 .300 .372 .673 29 Was very useful in a utility role before being traded to the Mets for John Hudek during the season. Key PitchersIt was reasonable to expect the Reds to finish in the middle of the pack in team ERA, and that's exactly what they did. Harnisch, Parris, White, Hudek and Graves were pleasant surprises, but others struggled to fill the holes left behind when Burba was traded to Cleveland and Cooke went down for the season with an elbow problem. Dave Burba, Starter, age 31 (as of July 1, 1998)ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 4.22 32 32 11 10 0 192 186 22 82 156 .255 Burba's included here only because I thought it was worth seeing what the Reds gave up. While he was the #1 starter for this club, he would be a #3 on a good pitching staff, as he was projected to be only slightly better than the league average starter. Still, anytime you lose 200 solid innings, it hurts. Brett Tomko, Starter, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 3.89 32 32 11 10 0 197 184 25 66 176 .247 Prorated CIN 3.89 34 34 12 11 0 210 196 27 70 188 .247 Actual CIN 4.44 34 34 13 12 0 211 198 22 64 162 .247 Made 19 starts in his rookie season in 1997 and was a little better than his minor-league numbers would suggest. So he was projected to slip back a little in 1998, and that's exactly what he did. Don't worry too much about his ERA, however, as his rates of hits, walks and homers per nine innings were the same or better than expected. He's good, he's young, and I'd love to have him on my team. Pete Harnisch, Starter, age 31ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 5.45 27 27 6 10 0 134 148 22 51 85 .281 Prorated CIN 5.45 39 39 9 14 0 192 213 32 73 122 .281 Actual CIN 3.14 32 32 14 7 0 209 176 24 64 157 .228 Harnisch missed much of 1997 with anxiety attacks and depression, posting a 7.03 ERA with 23 walks in 40 innings when he did play. Before that, his seasons ranged from solid to very good, though he was healthy enough to make as many as 20 starts only once in the past four years. So the Reds must have had no idea what to expect in 1998. They couldn't have been happier, as Harnisch came through with the third-best year of his career. Can he do it again next year? Hard to say, as he's never been able to do this twice in a row. Mike Remlinger, Starter, age 32ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 3.84 32 32 10 8 0 192 169 18 99 220 .239 Prorated CIN 3.84 28 28 9 7 0 168 148 16 87 192 .239 Actual CIN 4.82 35 28 8 15 0 164 164 23 87 144 .266 Every so often, a little-known player makes a bit of a splash, and I make the mistake of assuming he's young. Remlinger caught my attention in 1997 when he pitched pretty well (batters hit only .223 against him) after being moved into the rotation, and I put him in the category of young pitchers to keep an eye on. Turns out he was he was already 31 years old, and I had forgotten about the 123 innings he'd thrown from 1991 to 1996. He was a starter again this year, but wasn't nearly as effective, and was recently tossed into the Boone-Neagle deal with Atlanta. I'm guessing there's at least a 50/50 chance he'll be back in the bullpen in 1999. Steve Cooke, Starter, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 5.12 32 32 8 11 0 171 195 15 75 115 .291 Prorated CIN 5.12 1 1 0 0 0 5 6 0 2 3 .291 Actual CIN 1.50 1 1 1 0 0 6 4 0 0 3 .182 After a decent 1997 season with Pittsburgh, we had Cooke penciled into the Reds rotation this year. But Cooke spent almost the entire season on the DL (elbow) and was released on September 30. Scott Winchester, Starter, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 4.58 40 0 2 3 0 55 61 5 18 29 .285 Prorated CIN 4.58 60 0 3 4 0 82 91 7 27 43 .285 Actual CIN 5.81 16 16 3 6 0 79 101 12 27 40 .312 Winchester was a reliever in the minors, so we expected him to be in the Reds bullpen this year. Instead, he held a regular spot in the rotation from late April until the middle of July, when he was sent to AAA because he wasn't getting the job done. Was even worse (6.67 ERA in five starts) in Indianapolis. Steve Parris, Starter, age 30ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual CIN 3.73 18 16 6 5 0 99 89 9 32 77 .236 We didn't project him as a major-leaguer this year, as he entered the season with a career ERA of 5.82 in 108 innings and a minor-league record showing almost no success above the AA level. But he pitched well in AAA early in the season and was rewarded with a June promotion as the Reds continued to search for someone to fill the hole left by Burba's departure. He responded very well. Jason Bere, Starter, age 27ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CHA 5.58 32 32 8 10 0 150 161 23 98 131 .275 Prorated CHA 5.58 18 18 5 6 0 86 92 13 56 75 .275 Actual CHA 6.45 18 15 3 7 0 84 98 14 58 53 .293 Actual CIN 4.12 9 7 3 2 0 44 39 3 20 31 .242 Actual TOT 5.65 27 22 6 9 0 127 137 17 78 84 .276 Missed most of the past two seasons with injuries, and after he was hit very hard in his comeback attempt, the White Sox moved him to the bullpen. He didn't like it, demanded a trade, and was released soon after. The Reds signed him to a minor league contract, called him up a few weeks later, and he was fairly effective in seven starts. But he's going to have to get his walks under control before he can revive what was once a very promising career. David Weathers, Swing man, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 5.79 4 4 1 1 0 19 25 2 8 14 .325 Prorated CIN 5.79 13 13 3 3 0 62 84 7 27 47 .325 Actual CIN 6.21 16 9 2 4 0 62 86 3 27 51 .330 Actual MIL 3.21 28 0 4 1 0 48 44 3 14 43 .246 Actual TOT 4.91 44 9 6 5 0 110 130 6 41 94 .295 Would have lost the battle for the role of 5th starter were it not for the opening created by the Burba trade. He was every bit as bad as expected, and the Reds waived him in June. Perhaps he's just better suited for relief work. Gabe White, Swing man, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 4.90 74 4 4 5 1 72 83 10 15 45 .289 Prorated CIN 4.90 95 5 5 6 1 92 107 13 19 58 .289 Actual CIN 4.01 69 3 5 5 9 99 86 17 27 83 .231 Although White pitched well as a starter at the AAA level in 1996-7, this lefty was projected as a reliever and occasional spot starter. That's precisely the role he did play, he was very good at it, though his rate of homers allowed is a little scary. It'll be interesting to see whether the club feels he's earned a shot at the 1999 rotation. Mark Hutton, Swing man, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 4.98 27 4 2 3 0 56 59 7 24 38 .272 Prorated CIN 4.98 9 1 1 1 0 19 21 2 8 13 .272 Actual CIN 7.41 10 2 0 1 0 17 24 2 17 3 .348 Spent much of the season in AAA thanks to a whopping 41 baserunners allowed in 17 innings and a frightening 17:3 ratio of walks to strikeouts. Wasn't bad in AAA, but didn't really distinguish himself there either (4.43 ERA, 4-6 record, 37:47 ratio of walks to strikeouts). Scott Sullivan, Long reliever, age 27ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 3.38 40 0 4 3 0 72 63 6 24 65 .236 Prorated CIN 3.38 59 0 6 4 0 106 92 9 35 95 .236 Actual CIN 5.21 67 0 5 5 1 102 98 14 36 86 .253 Wasn't able to match a strong 1997 season (when he had a 3.24 ERA and allowed only 79 hits in 97 innings). If I were you, I wouldn't read too much into that 5.21 ERA. His rates of hits, walks and homers allowed normally produces an ERA in the low 4's, and I expect him to continue being a real asset to this pitching staff. John Hudek, Middle Reliever, age 31ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYN 4.40 30 0 2 2 0 31 26 5 18 32 .230 Prorated NYN 4.40 27 0 2 2 0 28 24 5 16 29 .230 Actual NYN 4.00 28 0 1 4 0 27 23 2 19 28 .237 Actual CIN 2.43 30 0 4 2 0 37 27 6 28 40 .206 Actual TOT 3.09 58 0 5 6 0 64 50 8 47 68 .219 Has struggled for a few years to overcome a serious rib problem that derailed a promising career as a closer. All those walks are a little troubling, however. He's just the opposite of Scott Sullivan, in that Hudek's ERA is misleadingly low -- an ERA of about 4.50 is more typical for someone who puts 97 runners on base and yields 8 homers in 64 innings. Stan Belinda, Middle Reliever, age 31ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 3.44 70 0 5 4 3 99 83 10 36 104 .227 Prorated CIN 3.44 42 0 3 2 2 60 50 6 22 63 .227 Actual CIN 3.23 40 0 4 8 1 61 46 7 28 57 .212 Although he pitched every bit as well as expected, his season was marked by a most unexpected turn of events. He went on the DL in June with an inflamed spinal cord, then suffered through three months of uncertainty before his condition was diagnosed as the early stages of multiple sclerosis. His doctors don't think this will end his career, but they didn't say whether it might shorten it. Danny Graves, Middle Reliever and Closer, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 4.58 53 0 5 5 0 108 118 6 49 62 .283 Prorated CIN 4.58 38 0 4 4 0 77 84 4 35 44 .283 Actual CIN 3.32 62 0 2 1 8 81 76 6 28 44 .252 Doesn't fit the mold of the overpowering closer who racks up a ton of Ks, but was 8 for 8 in save opportunities after taking over the closer job when Jeff Shaw was traded. And he has a couple of excellent minor-league seasons under his belt -- 1.48 ERA in 79 innings at AAA in 1996, 0.64 ERA in 70 innings from A to AAA in 1995. Jeff Shaw, Closer, age 31ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 3.23 70 0 5 5 31 78 72 6 15 58 .247 Prorated CIN 3.23 43 0 3 3 19 48 44 4 9 35 .247 Actual CIN 1.81 39 0 2 4 23 50 40 2 12 29 .231 Actual LAN 2.55 34 0 1 4 25 35 35 6 7 26 .252 Actual TOT 2.12 73 0 3 8 48 85 75 8 19 55 .240 When the Reds fell out of contention in the division race, Shaw became expendable, despite a first-rate performance to that point. He was traded to the Dodgers for hot prospect Paul Konerko, the Baseball America minor-league player of the year in 1997, and continued to perform quite well after that. OutlookThe Reds big off-season move was the trade of Bret Boone and Mike Remlinger to Atlanta for Denny Neagle, Michael Tucker, and minor-league pitcher Rob Bell. It's not clear to me that the Reds were in need of yet another young outfielder, but Neagle's addition gives Cincinnati three good starters (along with Harnisch and Tomko. And they have some good young pitchers to fill out the rotation and form a bullpen. They've signed Steve Avery as a free agent, though it's not clear whether he'll be able to win a major role with the team next year. I don't see any reason why they can't be in the top half in team ERA next year. Can they score enough runs? Hard to say, but I think the potential is there, especially if they hold onto Barry Larkin. Taubensee's a plus behind the plate, Casey should be better, and even if Reggie Sanders doesn't bounce back, there's plenty of young talent to play the outfield. The big question marks are 2B, now that Bret Boone's in Atlanta, and 3B, where the club tried a few different guys. Pokey Reese could claim one of those jobs, but the most he's ever produced at any level is a .269 average with 12 homers in AA ball. The Reds may be planning to give the 2B job to free agent signee Mark Lewis, who didn't hit all that much (.249 average, .312 OBP, .349 SPC) with the Phillies in 1997. If I was the Reds GM, I'd go get Willie Greene back from Baltimore, put him at 3B, and accept the fact that he'll make 10-15 more errors per season than the league-average 3B. His 90 walks and 25-30 homers would be worth it. |
 |
