Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- Cleveland Indians By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the Cleveland Indians did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 877 850 Runs allowed 774 779 Run Margin 103 71 Wins 91 89 Pythagorean wins 91 88 Placement 1st 1st Cleveland came within a blown save of winning the World Championship in 1997 and then spent a very busy off-season. Five players who started for them in the World Series (Marquis Grissom, Matt Williams, Tony Fernandez, Bip Roberts and Orel Hershiser) were sent packing. Kenny Lofton, Travis Fryman, Dave Burba and Doc Gooden (among others) were added. GM John Hart was intent on reversing a trend that had seen the Indians' winning percentage drop 160 points in two years. We figured that the moves would improve the team slightly and allow them to finish first in baseball's weakest division. And that was pretty much what happened. Key Position PlayersThe Indians had a slightly less productive offense than anticipated. Much of this was due to a poor season by Sandy Alomar, but Dave Justice and Shawon Dunston also did less than expected. New addition Travis Fryman was about the only pleasant surprise on offense, although the players expected to carry the team (Thome, Ramirez and Lofton) played as well as hoped. Sandy Alomar Jr., C, age 32 (as of 7/1/98)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 555 162 37 0 21 71 84 4 22 1 61 1 1 .292 .322 .472 .795 76 Prorated CLE 413 120 28 0 16 53 62 3 16 1 45 1 1 .292 .322 .472 .795 57 Actual CLE 409 96 26 2 6 45 44 3 18 0 45 0 3 .235 .270 .352 .622 35 Alomar suffered from a variety of ailments in 1998, including a strained left groin, tendinitis in his shoulder, hamstring problems and a sore knee. It was a season to forget for the former All-Star as he was arguably the worst hitting regular catcher in the league last year. Not at all what was expected following his career year in 1997. Pat Borders, C, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 71 18 3 0 1 6 6 0 3 0 13 0 0 .254 .284 .338 .622 6 Prorated CLE 166 42 7 0 2 14 14 0 7 0 30 0 0 .254 .284 .338 .622 15 Actual CLE 160 38 6 0 0 12 6 2 10 0 40 0 2 .238 .289 .275 .564 13 Like Alomar, Borders followed-up a surprisingly good season at the plate with a miserable one. At his age, however, such a drop-off in performance is not unusual. Jim Thome, 1B, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 517 153 28 2 39 113 105 4 120 9 146 1 1 .296 .428 .584 1.012 137 Prorated CLE 429 127 23 2 32 94 87 3 100 7 121 1 1 .296 .428 .584 1.012 114 Actual CLE 440 129 34 2 30 89 85 4 89 8 141 1 0 .293 .413 .584 .997 113 He was on a pace to top 40 home runs again when he broke a bone in his hand on August 7th. Rested against lefties in the past, Thome hit them well in 1998. He hit .332 through the end of June and only .221 after. Richie Sexson, 1B, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 70 18 4 0 4 9 12 1 3 0 14 1 0 .257 .293 .486 .779 10 Prorated CLE 171 44 10 0 10 22 29 2 7 0 34 2 0 .257 .293 .486 .779 23 Actual CLE 174 54 14 1 11 28 35 3 6 0 42 1 1 .310 .344 .592 .936 34 One of the top hitting prospects in the organization, Sexson was having another fine season at AAA ball when he was called up after Thome's injury in early August. Improved his walk to strikeout ratio (50 to 68) in the minors in 1998, but did not do as well in this area with Cleveland. His power and batting average were even better with the major league team. Despite the Indians' reluctance to start young players (just ask Enrique Wilson), Sexson almost has to play regularly somewhere in 1999. Shawon Dunston, 2B/SS/LF, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 675 195 34 6 17 83 74 3 16 1 102 31 7 .289 .306 .433 .738 87 Prorated CLE 158 46 8 1 4 19 17 1 4 0 24 7 2 .289 .306 .433 .738 20 Actual CLE 156 37 11 3 3 26 12 1 6 0 18 9 2 .237 .265 .404 .669 17 Actual SFN 51 9 2 0 3 10 8 3 0 0 10 0 2 .176 .222 .392 .614 3 Actual TOT 207 46 13 3 6 36 20 4 6 0 28 9 2 .222 .255 .401 .656 20 Started the season at second base, a position he'd never played before and struggled with the bat until losing his starting job to David Bell in May. Sent to the Giants at the end of July in a trade involving Mesa and Steve Reed. David Bell, 2B/3B, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SLN 73 16 3 0 1 6 7 1 5 1 12 1 1 .219 .275 .301 .576 6 Prorated CLE 337 74 14 0 5 28 32 5 23 5 55 5 5 .219 .275 .301 .576 28 Actual SLN 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .222 .222 .333 .556 1 Actual CLE 340 89 21 2 10 37 41 2 22 4 54 0 4 .262 .306 .424 .730 42 Actual SEA 80 26 8 0 0 11 8 0 5 0 8 0 0 .325 .365 .425 .790 12 Actual TOT 420 115 29 2 10 48 49 2 27 4 62 0 4 .274 .317 .424 .741 53 Bell was picked up from St. Louis on waivers in April. The Indians originally expected him to be a reserve infielder, but a hot start in Cleveland and the poor play of Dunston gave him the second base job. His hitting tailed off in August and he was traded to the Mariners for Joey Cora. Omar Vizquel, SS, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 506 139 25 3 5 79 46 2 49 0 51 32 9 .275 .338 .366 .704 67 Prorated CLE 582 160 29 3 6 91 53 2 56 0 59 37 10 .275 .338 .366 .704 77 Actual CLE 576 166 30 6 2 86 50 4 62 1 64 37 12 .288 .358 .372 .730 83 A perennial gold-glove shortstop, Vizquel was named to AL All-Star team for the first time in 1998. He owed his selection as much to the man picking the team (Cleveland manager Mike Hargrove, who overlooked a much more qualified candidate in Nomar Garciaparra) as to his fine play last spring. A decade or so ago, Vizquel would have been considered one of the best-hitting shortstops in the game. Travis Fryman, 3B, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 577 155 27 3 16 80 90 4 46 3 109 8 3 .269 .322 .409 .731 75 Prorated CLE 552 148 26 3 15 76 86 4 44 3 104 8 3 .269 .322 .409 .731 72 Actual CLE 557 160 33 2 28 74 96 3 44 0 125 10 8 .287 .340 .504 .845 92 Fryman was traded twice in a two-week period before the season. The Indians got him from the Diamondbacks in the Matt Williams deal. Fryman made the move look good by having his best season since 1993. He started slowly, but hit .309 from May to September, and even out-homered Williams, who managed only 22 in Arizona. Back problems caused him to miss some playing time late in the season. Brian Giles, LF, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 430 124 22 4 22 78 77 2 63 5 51 9 2 .288 .376 .512 .888 86 Prorated CLE 367 106 19 3 19 67 66 2 54 4 44 8 2 .288 .376 .512 .888 73 Actual CLE 350 94 19 0 16 56 66 3 73 8 75 10 5 .269 .396 .460 .856 68 He took Berroa's left-field job away by hitting 10 home runs in his first 38 games. Giles missed all of June with a sprained left ankle and faded badly over the last two months of the season. The Indians ended up sending him to the Pirates after the season for reliever Ricardo Rincon. Geronimo Berroa, LF/DH, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 247 66 12 0 11 37 39 1 28 1 53 1 2 .267 .341 .449 .790 37 Prorated CLE 64 17 3 0 3 10 10 0 7 0 14 0 1 .267 .341 .449 .790 10 Actual CLE 65 13 3 1 0 6 3 0 7 0 17 1 0 .200 .278 .277 .555 5 Actual DET 126 30 4 1 1 17 10 2 17 1 27 0 1 .238 .338 .310 .647 14 Actual TOT 191 43 7 2 1 23 13 2 24 1 44 1 1 .225 .318 .298 .616 19 Berroa came to Cleveland as a free agent and started the season platooning in left-field with Giles. He was unhappy with the situation and his mood only got worse when he injured his foot and went on the DL in May. He antagonized management by refusing a rehab assignment to AAA at the beginning of June. By the time he was shipped to division rival Detroit three weeks later for pitcher Tim Worrell, the Indians were still waiting for him to hit his first HR. Mark Whiten, LF/CF/RF, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection 65 16 3 0 2 11 9 0 10 1 18 2 1 .246 .347 .385 .731 9 Prorated 224 55 10 0 7 38 31 0 34 3 62 7 3 .246 .347 .385 .731 31 Actual CLE 226 64 14 0 6 31 29 3 29 0 60 2 1 .283 .372 .425 .797 36 Signed out of the Mexican League when Berroa went on the DL in early May, Whiten did a good job filling in at all three outfield spots and hit somewhat better than he had in 1997 with the Yankees. Kenny Lofton, CF, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 619 192 27 6 8 114 58 1 62 5 91 50 23 .310 .371 .412 .783 97 Prorated CLE 624 194 27 6 8 115 59 1 63 5 92 50 23 .310 .371 .412 .783 98 Actual CLE 600 169 31 6 12 101 64 2 87 1 80 54 10 .282 .371 .413 .785 105 Lofton was signed as a free agent before the season and had nearly exactly the on-base and slugging percentages forecast for him. Although hitting for the lowest average of his career, he showed more power and a better eye at the plate. A poor percentage base stealer in Atlanta, he was once again very successful on the basepaths in the AL. Manny Ramirez, RF, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 548 172 39 1 29 95 99 5 78 6 111 4 4 .314 .400 .547 .948 119 Prorated CLE 570 179 41 1 30 99 103 5 81 6 116 4 4 .314 .400 .547 .948 124 Actual CLE 571 168 35 2 45 108 145 6 76 6 121 5 3 .294 .377 .599 .976 128 Ramirez raised his power output to a new level in 1998. His average dropped under .300 for the first time since 1994, but he set career highs in runs, HRs, RBIs and slugging percentage. One of the best hitting right-fielders in the game. Dave Justice, DH/LF, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection CLE 570 172 34 1 33 95 110 1 94 11 93 3 4 .302 .397 .539 .935 124 Prorated CLE 529 160 32 1 31 88 102 1 87 10 86 3 4 .302 .397 .539 .935 115 Actual CLE 540 151 39 2 21 94 88 0 76 7 98 9 3 .280 .363 .476 .839 98 Shoulder injuries prevented Justice from playing much left-field in 1998. He started strongly, but hit only .266 with 15 HRs and 59 RBIs after April. His sub-par season might have been caused by his health problems or they might signal the start of a more general decline. Key PitchersCleveland managed to keep their starting rotation reasonably healthy all season and ended up allowing five more runs than we'd expected. Four of their starting pitchers avoided the DL all year, and Doc Gooden, although injured for most of April and May, had one of his best seasons in years. Bartolo Colon was another pleasant surprise, and these two pitchers managed to balance out disappointing seasons from Nagy, Wright and Ogea. Jaret Wright came within seven innings of 200, a total that would've given them four pitchers with 200+ innings pitched. The last time that happened in Cleveland was 1954, albeit with a much more impressive staff (and record) than the current edition. Charles Nagy, Starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CLE 4.51 32 32 10 12 0 209 227 24 65 148 .279 Prorated CLE 4.51 33 33 10 12 0 217 236 25 67 154 .279 Actual CLE 5.22 33 33 15 10 0 210 250 34 66 120 .298 Despite his 15 wins, Nagy had a disappointing season in 1998. He gave up 20 home runs in his first 75 2/3 innings. At the time, Nagy's record was 7-2 despite a 5.71 ERA. While winning 15 or more games in a season for the fourth straight year, Nagy had never posted a higher ERA in any of his six previous full seasons. Dave Burba, Starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CIN 4.22 32 32 11 10 0 192 186 22 82 156 .255 Actual CLE 4.11 32 31 15 10 0 204 210 30 69 132 .269 Burba came to the Indians right before opening day in a trade for super-prospect Sean Casey. The Indians figured that they had already had two other good first basemen and picking up Burba meant that they didn't have to stick Steve Karsay in the starting rotation. Time will tell if this was short-sighted of GM Hart, but Burba did solidify Cleveland's staff in 1998. (Note: we don't show a 'Prorated' line because Burba's projection was for a different league and park than the one he played in.) Bartolo Colon, Starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CLE 4.49 32 32 8 8 0 176 176 16 80 136 .262 Prorated CLE 4.49 37 37 9 9 0 203 202 18 92 156 .262 Actual CLE 3.71 31 31 14 9 0 204 205 15 79 158 .260 He got a chance to start when Ben McDonald underwent season-ending rotator cuff surgery in February. We expected him to improve on the 5.65 ERA he managed as rookie in 1997; we just didn't think he'd start as strongly as he did. Colon had never pitched more than 150 innings in a season before and he wore down in the second-half, going 9-4 with a 2.46 ERA before the All-Star break and 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA after. Jaret Wright, Starter, age 22Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CLE 3.62 32 32 11 8 0 181 161 18 78 149 .239 Prorated CLE 3.62 36 36 12 9 0 202 179 20 87 166 .239 Actual CLE 4.72 32 32 12 10 0 193 207 22 87 140 .277 The league seemed to catch up to Wright the second time around, and his ERA rose slightly from the 4.38 he put up in his rookie season. Like Colon, he had never pitched as many innings as he was asked to in 1998. Dwight Gooden, Starter, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CLE 4.86 32 32 10 11 0 185 194 22 94 136 .272 Prorated CLE 4.86 22 22 7 8 0 129 135 15 66 95 .272 Actual CLE 3.76 23 23 8 6 0 134 135 13 51 83 .262 A free agent signee in the off-season, Gooden missed the first six weeks with tightness in his pitching shoulder. Once he recovered, he turned in a surprising comeback season, improving his control and posting his first sub 4.00 ERA since 1993. Prior to that, he had never had an ERA as high as 4.00. Chad Ogea, Starter/Middle Relief, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CLE 4.46 27 27 8 9 0 163 174 19 50 106 .274 Prorated CLE 4.46 12 12 3 4 0 71 76 8 22 46 .274 Actual CLE 5.61 19 9 5 4 0 69 74 9 25 43 .273 Ogea started the season on the DL due to arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent during spring training. He started slowly and lost his job in the rotation to Gooden when he strained his right pectoral muscle in mid-May and missed two months. Pitched in long relief when he returned until going on the DL a third (and last) time in August with tendinitis in his pitching hand. He was traded to the Phillies after the season for reliever Jerry Spradlin. Mike Jackson, Closer, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CLE 3.08 70 0 5 2 2 76 62 6 27 72 .223 Prorated CLE 3.08 53 0 4 2 2 58 47 5 20 55 .223 Actual CLE 1.55 69 0 1 1 40 64 43 4 13 55 .195 Jackson, who shared the closer role with Mesa in 1997, had an outstanding year once given sole ownership of the job in spring training. He allowed only 5 earned runs in 44 games after the end of May, pitching as well as Mesa had during his prime in 1995. Jose Mesa, Middle Relief, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CLE 3.51 70 0 6 6 39 100 97 8 33 86 .257 Prorated CLE 3.51 41 0 3 3 23 58 56 5 19 50 .257 Actual CLE 5.17 44 0 3 4 1 54 61 7 20 35 .282 Actual SFN 3.52 32 0 5 3 0 31 30 1 18 28 .256 Despite failing to hold a lead in the deciding game of the 1997 World Series, manager Mike Hargrove had insisted that the closers job was Mesa's to lose at the start of last year. He managed to do that in short order, blowing all three of his saves opportunities in spring training, and spent four unhappy months as a setup man before being dealt to the Giants at the end of July. Eric Plunk, Middle Relief, age 34Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CLE 3.86 53 0 4 3 0 75 63 9 33 79 .228 Prorated CLE 3.86 30 0 2 2 0 42 35 5 18 44 .228 Actual CLE 4.83 37 0 3 1 0 41 44 6 15 38 .282 Actual MIL 3.69 26 0 1 2 1 32 33 3 15 36 .270 Actual TOT 4.33 63 0 4 3 1 73 77 9 30 74 .277 After pitching with a painful bone spur for most of 1997, we expected a healthy Plunk to improve last season. He still suffered from bone spurs and struggled in Cleveland until getting traded to the Brewers for Doug Jones in late July. Steve Reed, Middle Relief, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SFN 2.67 70 0 5 2 3 78 54 9 29 61 .197 Prorated SFN 2.67 47 0 3 1 2 53 37 6 20 41 .197 Actual SFN 1.48 50 0 2 1 1 55 30 4 19 50 .160 Actual CLE 6.66 20 0 2 2 0 26 26 4 8 23 .260 Actual TOT 3.14 70 0 4 3 1 80 56 8 27 73 .194 Reed came to Cleveland in the Mesa deal during the staff shake-up at the end of July. The change of scenery did not do him any good, however, and he pitched poorly for the Indians until coming down with a circulation problem in his right hand in early September. Paul Shuey, Middle Relief, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection CLE 3.92 30 0 2 2 0 41 39 4 21 45 .250 Prorated CLE 3.92 37 0 2 2 0 51 48 5 26 56 .250 Actual CLE 3.00 43 0 5 4 2 51 44 6 25 58 .229 Shuey, who had three stints on the DL in 1997, went on the list again with a strained right groin in April. He aggravated the injury during a rehab assignment and didn't return to the Indians until June. After that, he pitched even better than expected, cutting his 6.42 ERA in 1997 by more than half. He's considered to be the team's closer of the future. OutlookAfter the season, the Indians signed Roberto Alomar to fill a perceived vacancy at second, and dealt Chad Ogea and Brian Giles for two relief pitchers, Jerry Spradlin and Ricardo Rincon. The move to sign Alomar was advertised as giving them an All-Star at each position except DH. Of course, that counts one player (Sandy Alomar) who is probably near the end of line, and four more (Dave Justice, Roberto Alomar, Omar Vizquel and Kenny Lofton) who are close to entering the declining years of their careers. Of this group of All-Stars, only Ramirez and Thome will be under thirty. The Indians have the good fortune to be the only rich team in their division and, barring something unforeseen, should win their division again next year. They might not win more than 85 games, but that should be enough. |
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