1998 Post-Season Review -- Colorado Rockies

By Tom Ruane
January 1, 1998

This article takes a look at how the Colorado Rockies did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for           1008      826
Runs allowed       1041      855
Run Margin          -33      -29
Wins                 77       77
Pythagorean wins     78       78
Placement           4th      4th

The Rockies entered 1998 with high hopes. They had signed Darryl Kile as a free agent and picked up Lansing and Veres from the Expos for prospects. Sure, both their regular first-baseman and shortstop had gone to Atlanta via the free agent route, but they had two outstanding young players, Todd Helton and Neifi Perez, ready to take their place. The team was supposed to contend for a playoff spot after two relatively disappointing seasons (when they finished with identical 83-79 records).

We didn't think these expectations were reasonable. When the Rockies failed to live up to them, manager Don Baylor was fired. And while Colorado won the number of games we thought they would, they did it by both scoring and allowing a lot fewer runs than expected.

Key Position Players

Coors Field obscured, for the most part, the fact that the Rockies' offense was one of the league's poorest in 1998. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates scored fewer runs on the road. Now looking simply at road stats is not entirely fair to Colorado's hitters--after all, it denies them ANY games at their stadium-- but even after adjusting for that, the Rockies were still a weak hitting team. Coors Field makes it very difficult for their front-office to accurately gauge the skill of both their hitters and pitchers. And the recent long-term contract given to Dante Bichette is strong evidence that they still don't quite have the hang of it.

We thought the Rockies would hit a lot more home runs and draw more walks than they did in 1998. Perez, Lansing and Burks were all big disappointments and only Castilla significantly exceeded our expectations. They also got far less out of their offense than they should have. Given their statistics, the Rockies should have scored 50 more runs than they actually did. Some of this was due to having players like Perez at the top of their lineup, but much of this was simply the breaks of the game.

Kirt Manwaring, C, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 208  50  6  2  1  13  18  3  19  1  45  1  2  .240  .310  .303  .613  20
Prorated   COL 298  72  9  3  1  19  26  4  27  1  64  1  3  .240  .310  .303  .613  28
Actual     COL 291  72 12  3  2  30  26  3  38  3  49  1  5  .247  .339  .330  .669  31

We thought he would play less than Reed because we figured he'd be the right-handed half of a traditional platoon arrangement, but he ended up batting quite a bit against righties. Manwaring is an example of a basic problem in evaluating Rockies hitters: they seem to forget how to hit on the road once they arrive in Colorado. When he came to the team prior to 1997, he brought with him a .245 career batting average over 10 seasons. In the two years since, his hitting line line on the road has been the following:

     AB   H  2B  3B  HR   AVG   OBP   SLG
    307  58   4   4   1  .189  .270  .238

Only a .280 batting average at Coors Field has kept him in a major league lineup. So has Manwaring's offense simply fallen off a cliff since 1997? Or has playing his home games in a hitter's paradise hurt his road performance? I suspect the latter is true, and would guess that if he went somewhere else in 1999, his batting average would probably end up in the neighborhood of his pre-Coors .245. We've seen this recently with the performance of such ex-Rockies as Andres Galarraga, Walt Weiss and Eric Young--all of whom hit much better on the road after they left Colorado.

Jeff Reed, C, age 35

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 368 104 17  1 16  49  52  3  51  5  81  2  1  .283  .374  .465  .838  65
Prorated   COL 259  73 12  1 11  35  37  2  36  4  57  1  1  .283  .374  .465  .838  46
Actual     COL 259  75 17  1  9  43  39  1  37  4  57  0  0  .290  .377  .467  .844  47

Reed was platooned with Manwaring in 1998 and did just about exactly what was expected, although with less playing time. He's considered to be much worse than Manwaring defensively, which is why he doesn't play more. Both catchers should split time again in 1999, but at some point Colorado will need to replace their aging (and not particularly productive) backstops.

Todd Helton, 1B, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 569 185 34  3 23 100 103  0  67  5  86  3  3  .325  .393  .517  .910 116
Prorated   COL 527 171 31  3 21  93  95  0  62  5  80  3  3  .325  .393  .517  .910 108
Actual     COL 530 167 37  1 25  78  97  6  53  5  54  3  3  .315  .380  .530  .911 105

One of the NL's better rookie hitters last season, Helton's season was almost exactly what could be expected given his minor-league record and his major-league home park. He had the worst walk percentage of his professional career, a common affliction of Coors Field. If he doesn't do something foolish (like leave Colorado for more money elsewhere), he should put up some very impressive, altitude-aided numbers before he's through. Helton was hobbled over the last two weeks of the season by a sprained ligament in his wrist.

Greg Colbrunn, 1B, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL  70  22  4  0  3  10  12  1   3  0  11  1  1  .314  .347  .500  .847  11
Prorated   COL 122  38  7  0  5  17  21  2   5  0  19  2  2  .314  .347  .500  .847  20
Actual     COL 122  38  8  2  2  12  13  1   8  0  23  3  3  .311  .359  .459  .818  20
Actual     ATL  44  13  3  0  1   6  10  3   2  0  11  1  0  .295  .367  .432  .799   8
Actual     TOT 166  51 11  2  3  18  23  4  10  0  34  4  3  .307  .361  .452  .813  27

The Rockies picked up Colbrunn as insurance in case Helton didn't make the grade. When Helton hit as well as the front-office had hoped, Colbrunn was dealt to the Braves for two minor league pitchers.

Mike Lansing, 2B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 597 180 43  2 20  98  73  6  42  2  89 18  6  .302  .352  .481  .833 100
Prorated   COL 583 176 42  2 20  96  71  6  41  2  87 18  6  .302  .352  .481  .833  98
Actual     COL 584 161 39  2 12  73  66  5  39  4  88 10  3  .276  .325  .411  .736  75

A variety of ailments could have been to blame for Lansing's dreadful season last year. Picked up in an off-season deal with the Expos (intended to lighten Montreal's salary obligations), Lansing was supposed to improve on the numbers he put up in 1997. Instead, he took a major step backward, especially when you consider his new home park. Lansing hit only .225 on the road with a .619 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage)--that's about as good as Rey Ordonez of the Mets hit in opposition parks.

Neifi Perez, SS, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 614 191 32 14 12  95  71  1  24  4  71 14  9  .311  .334  .467  .801  93
Prorated   COL 671 209 35 15 13 104  78  1  26  4  78 15 10  .311  .334  .467  .801 102
Actual     COL 647 177 25  9  9  80  59  1  38  0  70  5  6  .274  .313  .382  .695  78

He was handed the regular shortstop job when Walt Weiss went to Atlanta as a free agent before the season, and had an awful season at the plate, much worse than we thought he would do based upon his performance in 1997. If the Rockies are going to improve, they simply must get more offense up the middle.

Vinny Castilla, 3B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 566 165 27  1 34  86 100  6  37  7 101  3  3  .292  .339  .523  .862  95
Prorated   COL 643 187 31  1 39  98 114  7  42  8 115  3  3  .292  .339  .523  .862 108
Actual     COL 645 206 28  4 46 108 144  6  40  7  89  5  9  .319  .362  .589  .951 124

Another Rockies hitter with a very poor command of the strike zone, Castilla now has as many career home runs (170) as walks. Every year, one of Colorado's hitters puts up MVP-like numbers, and it was Castilla's turn in 1998. Most of this was caused by his home park, although he was their best hitter on the road. If he hit as well at home as he did on the road (and typically players do about 5% better at home), his season would have looked like: 40 homers, 106 RBIs and a .270 batting average. Not exactly MVP stats, but not bad either. Now if he could only learn to walk more than once a week....

Larry Walker, RF, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 545 180 40  5 44 129 121 14  65 11 101 29  6  .330  .412  .664 1.076 151
Prorated   COL 454 150 33  4 37 107 101 12  54  9  84 24  5  .330  .412  .664 1.076 126
Actual     COL 454 165 46  3 23 113  67  4  64  2  61 14  4  .363  .445  .630 1.075 130

Walker had off-season surgery to fix a bone spur in his elbow, and he suffered with elbow problems most of the season, including a two-week stint on the DL at the end of June. He did about what we expected while he was in the lineup, but with far fewer RBIs than we thought. In case you're wondering how someone could bat .363 in the middle of Colorado's lineup and still knock in only 44 of his teammates all year, here's how Walker hit both with no one on and with men in scoring position:

                   AB   H  2B  3B  HR   AVG   OBP   SLG
    No One On     246  98  33   1  17  .398  .483  .748
    Scoring Pos   121  33   6   2   3  .273  .353  .430

Due to his elbow injury, he is no longer an asset in right field.

Ellis Burks, CF/LF/RF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 601 179 34  6 39 126 115  6  67  1 126 18  5  .298  .373  .569  .942 125
Prorated   COL 359 107 20  4 23  75  69  4  40  1  75 11  3  .298  .373  .569  .942  74
Actual     COL 357 102 22  5 16  54  54  2  39  0  80  3  7  .286  .355  .510  .865  62
Actual     SFN 147  45  6  1  5  22  22  3  19  1  31  8  1  .306  .387  .463  .850  30
Actual     TOT 504 147 28  6 21  76  76  5  58  1 111 11  8  .292  .365  .496  .861  91

The Rockies knew they wouldn't be able to keep both Burks and Bichette past 1998. Burks had insisted that his back pain wouldn't permit him to continue to play center after last season, and with his contract up, he was going to leave if he couldn't play right or left field. So when he slumped through the first two-thirds of the season, it was simply a case of which contender was going to offer the most for his services. The Rockies were able to get Darryl Hamilton as well as two minor leaguers from the Giants at the trading deadline. Prior to being dealt, Burks was not putting up the numbers the team anticipated, primarily due to his poor hitting at Coors Field.

I was a little surprised that the Rockies chose to keep Bichette instead of Burks, but they were probably offered a lot more for their centerfielder, and this, in addition to their concerns about Burks' health, probably caused them to make the deal they did.

Darryl Hamilton, CF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 595 153 27  3  4  83  46  2  60  2  71 15  7  .257  .325  .333  .658  67
Prorated   SFN 388 100 18  2  3  54  30  1  39  1  46 10  5  .257  .325  .333  .658  44
Actual     SFN 367 108 19  2  1  65  26  2  59  0  53  9  8  .294  .393  .365  .758  56
Actual     COL 194  65  9  1  5  30  25  1  23  1  20  4  1  .335  .406  .469  .875  40
Actual     TOT 561 173 28  3  6  95  51  3  82  1  73 13  9  .308  .398  .401  .799  96

We were pessimistic about Hamilton's chances for 1998, but he was having a very good season when the Giants dealt him to the Rockies for Burks at the end of July. His good showing the rest of the way was not a Coors Field illusion either. Hamilton hit very well both on the road and at home over the last two months, and finished with career highs in runs, walks and on-base percentage. He doesn't have the power or speed of Burks, but he could put up some very impressive numbers at the top of the Rockies lineup next season, especially if he doesn't forget how to draw a walk.

Dante Bichette, LF/RF, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 566 171 33  2 27  89 119  4  34  3 101 13  9  .302  .341  .511  .852  94
Prorated   COL 642 194 37  2 31 101 135  5  39  3 115 15 10  .302  .341  .511  .852 106
Actual     COL 662 219 48  2 22  97 122  1  28  2  76 14  4  .331  .357  .509  .866 113

He did slightly better than we thought he would in 1998, with fewer walks and less power countered by a higher batting average. Had the Rockies come into the league five or six years earlier, Bichette could be working on Hall of Fame career numbers by now. Of course, if he had never come to Colorado, he would no doubt be doing something other than playing baseball in 1999.

I'm not sure whether his poor numbers on the road are a truer indication of his ability or whether we should give him credit for adapting so well to his surroundings, but since 1993 he's hit .369 at home and only .265 (with little power) on the road. He has a reputation as a streak hitter, but most of his hot streaks coincide with a home-stand, while his cold stretches seem to line up quite nicely with road trips.

Key Pitchers

The Rockies pitching was a lot better than we expected in 1998. In particular, the relief pitching was outstanding. Of course, most of this was hidden by their home park (and columnists still continue to wonder when Colorado's going to get a pitching staff to go along with their "outstanding" hitters), but only three teams in the league (Atlanta, Houston and New York) allowed fewer runs on the road than the Rockies did last year.

Darryl Kile, Starter, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  5.14  32 32   9 14  0  212 238 24  99 183  .286
Prorated   COL  5.14  34 34  10 15  0  225 253 26 105 194  .286
Actual     COL  5.20  36 35  13 17  0  230 257 28  96 158  .287

You have to wonder what Kile was thinking when he signed a deal to move from the Astrodome to Coors Field after the end of the 1997 season. Even more, you have to wonder what the Rockies were thinking. True, Kile had a great year in 1997, but it was achieved in a pitchers' park and was his only good year in the last three. It would have taken Rockies management about five minutes to do what any decent projection system does -- take a weighted average of his recent performances and adjust for the difference in the two parks -- and find out that an ERA in the low fives was a reasonable expectation. Is that worth $24 million for three years?

We believe the inflated expectations for Colorado's 1998 season were in part due to overestimating Kile's ability to lead this staff. He's a good pitcher, and he eats innings, but he's not Maddux or Schilling or Brown, and it wasn't reasonable to expect him to post great numbers with the Rockies. As it turned out, Kile didn't win his first game at home until after the All-Star break and finished the year with a 6.22 Coors Field ERA. One year down; two to go.

Pedro Astacio, Starter, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  5.91  32 32   9 15  0  201 243 29  68 160  .302
Prorated   COL  5.91  34 34   9 16  0  210 254 30  71 168  .302
Actual     COL  6.23  35 34  13 14  0  209 245 39  74 170  .294

Much of the Rockies hopes for reaching the playoffs last year were based upon the assumption that Astacio could pitch an entire season as effectively as he did during the last two months of 1997. After coming to Colorado from LA in the Eric Young deal, Astacio went 5-1 over his last seven starts. We didn't see any reason to expect this to continue and after posting a 12.15 ERA over his first four starts, few other people did either. Astacio led the league in runs, earned runs and home runs allowed, helped along by an awful 7.39 ERA in Coors Field. Despite allowing 102 runs in 112 innings there, he did manage to win half of his 14 home decisions.

John Thomson, Starter, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  5.67  32 32   8 14  0  184 229 22  69 154  .308
Prorated   COL  5.67  26 26   7 11  0  150 187 18  56 126  .308
Actual     COL  4.81  26 26   8 11  0  161 174 21  49 106  .282

Thomson went on the DL in mid June with a blister on his pitching hand and was out until the end of July. He pitched very well while he was healthy, and although he had a 6.97 ERA at home, he was able to cut that in half (3.45) on the road to end up with a very respectable record for a Rockies starter. He has now posted two consecutive seasons with a sub-5.00 ERA. This might not seem like much, but it's the first time in the six year history of the franchise that a pitcher has had back-to-back seasons of ten or more starts with an ERA less than 5.00. The only other pitcher to do that twice in any season was Armando Reynoso (in 1993 and 1996). And while this string will no doubt be broken in 1999, Thomson should have a fine future ahead of him, especially once he's eligible for free agency.

Jamey Wright, Starter, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  6.10  32 32   8 14  0  181 222 20  85 103  .307
Prorated   COL  6.10  35 35   9 15  0  200 245 22  94 114  .307
Actual     COL  5.67  34 34   9 14  0  206 235 24  95  86  .294

Wright pitched somewhat better than expected, as he improved upon his 6.25 ERA of a year earlier.

Mark Thompson, Starter, age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  6.28  50 27   6 15  0  179 207 24  85 110  .293
Prorated   COL  6.28   7  4   1  2  0   25  29  3  12  16  .293
Actual     COL  7.71   6  6   1  2  0   23  36  8  12  14  .379

Thompson lost most of 1997 to arm injuries and the Rockies hoped he would be able to contribute last season. He won the fifth starting job in spring training, but pitched poorly before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury on May 13th.

Bobby Jones, Starter/Middle Relief, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  7.14  30  0   2  5  0   47  58  7  30  40  .309
Prorated   COL  7.14          6 14  0  131 162 20  84 112  .309
Actual     COL  5.22  35 20   7  8  0  141 153 12  66 109  .282

Jones was a long-shot to make the team in spring training before injuries to both Thompson and Ritz put him in the starting rotation. He did a lot better than anyone thought he would, but is slated to return to the bullpen when Bohanon joins the team in 1999.

Jerry DiPoto, Closer/Middle Relief, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  5.69  70  0   3  6 27   92 116  8  39  72  .314
Prorated   COL  5.69  49  0   2  4 19   64  81  6  27  51  .314
Actual     COL  3.53  68  0   3  4 19   71  61  8  25  49  .232

DiPoto, like many members of the Rockies relief corps, pitched much better than expected in 1998. As a group, Colorado's relievers posted a 3.61 ERA last season, compared to a 5.62 mark for their starters. Now, relief pitchers usually have a slightly lower ERA than starters, but no other team had a difference this large.

DiPoto had a bad stretch from June 14th to the All Star break when he allowed 11 earned runs in 9 innings and lost his closer's job to Veres. He would allow only two more runs over his next 15 games and end up sharing closer duties with Veres over the last two months of the season. He actually had a much lower ERA (2.61 to 4.80) at home.

Dave Veres, Middle Relief/Closer, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  6.27  40  0   2  4  0   52  65  7  22  49  .310
Prorated   COL  6.27  53  0   3  5  0   69  86  9  29  65  .310
Actual     COL  2.83  63  0   3  1  8   76  67  6  27  74  .233

Veres had a great year in 1998, and actually improved on the ERAs he had posted during his two years in Montreal. Like DiPoto, he also posted a very low ERA (2.98) at Coors Field.

Mike DeJean, Middle Relief, age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  6.62  70  0   3  6  2   90 118  9  43  63  .322
Prorated   COL  6.62  51  0   2  4  1   66  86  7  31  46  .322
Actual     COL  3.03  59  1   3  1  2   74  78  4  24  27  .285

DeJean had an ERA of 1.81 before July 31st but then things started going badly. Over the next month, he allowed 13 runs in 14 2/3 innings to raise his ERA over 3.00. Before it could go much higher, DeJean punched a wall partition after a bad outing, breaking his hand and ending his season. This was the second season his ERA has been below 4.00 pitching in Colorado. Not bad for a pitcher who came to the majors with a career ERA of 5.19 in AAA.

Chuck McElroy, Middle Relief, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  4.67  53  0   3  4  0   71  82  6  26  64  .290
Prorated   COL  4.67  47  0   3  4  0   63  72  5  23  57  .290
Actual     COL  2.90  78  0   6  4  2   68  68  3  24  61  .268

McElroy was picked up in an offseason trade with the Diamondbacks and was rewarded for his fine season at the end of July with a new contract which made him one of the highest paid setup men in baseball. His ERA stood at 1.42 at the middle of August, but he struggled down the stretch, allowing 23 hits, 6 walks and 13 runs in his last 11 1/3 innings.

Curt Leskanic, Middle Relief, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection COL  4.89  53  0   2  3  0   53  55  7  29  59  .268
Prorated   COL  4.89  74  0   3  4  0   74  76 10  40  82  .268
Actual     COL  4.40  66  0   6  4  2   76  75  9  40  55  .259

He stopped striking out people in 1998, but other than that, put together a season much like we thought he would. From 1995 to 1997, he had averaged more than a strikeout an inning, but that dropped by quite a bit last year.

Outlook

The Rockies have had a relatively uneventful off-season. Other than firing Don Baylor and hiring Jim Leyland, their biggest pickup so far has been pitcher Brian Bohanon, a pitcher who had the best two months of his nine-year career down the stretch in 1998. The Rockies are betting $10 million that his salary drive is a truer indication of his abilities than the eight and a half years that preceeded it.

Other than that, the team has been content to lock up their current players rather than pursue new ones. And this might not be a bad approach. Their starting pitching is young and relatively healthy; their relief pitching is solid. Their offense is nowhere near as good as team officials seem to think it is, but it may be enough (especially if the young players like Helton and Perez improve) to win around 85 or so games and contend for the wildcard spot. It would be interesting someday to see what a really great hitter could do in Coors Field, but it doesn't look like we're going to see that in 1999.

[I'm looking forward to seeing how Jim Leyland fares in 1999. The club should be better in 1999 even without major personnel changes, because (a) Larry Walker's elbow might improve enough to restore his power and ability to throw from RF, (b) Lansing and Perez could/should bounce back from subpar seasons, and (c) their offense was very inefficient (they led the league in OPS but finished 5th in runs), and such things tend to revert to normal the next year. If the 1999 Rockies win 83-85 games with the same club, I won't be surprised, and I won't attribute it to the change in managers. Baylor's firing was unjustified, with the front office using him as a scapegoat to take attention away from their inability to assess the real talent level of the team. -- Tom Tippett]