Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- Detroit Tigers By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the Detroit Tigers did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 723 722 Runs allowed 791 863 Run Margin -68 -141 Wins 73 67 Pythagorean wins 74 65 Placement 4th 5th Prior to last season, the Tigers lost Willie Blair, their best pitcher, to free agency and traded Travis Fryman. In return, they added a bunch of players like Bip Roberts, Joe Randa and Luis Gonzalez. Still, there were hopes for a division title prior to the start of the season. Roberts and Gonzalez could improve the offense; Scott Sanders could turn into the leader of the pitching staff; pigs could fly. We didn't think these hopes were realistic, but when they weren't realized, Buddy Bell paid for this optimism with his job. Bell probably helped grease the skids by encouraging the playoff talk, at least until reality (in the form of a 4-17 start) set in and the team started to looking for someone to blame. Key Position PlayersDetroit scored almost exactly as many runs in 1998 as we'd expected them to. There weren't a lot of surprises in either direction last year. Tony Clark and Damion Easley produced a little more than we thought, while Bob Higginson and Brian Lee Hunter were slight disappointments. Raul Casanova, C, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 394 94 14 0 12 36 40 3 31 1 63 1 1 .239 .297 .365 .662 40 Prorated DET 44 10 2 0 1 4 4 0 3 0 7 0 0 .239 .297 .365 .662 4 Actual DET 42 6 2 0 1 4 3 1 5 0 10 0 0 .143 .250 .262 .512 3 The regular catcher in 1997, Casanova shared catching duties with Oliver until he was injured at the end of April. He was sent to the minor leagues when he recovered and was recalled in mid-July after Oliver was released. A short time later, he went back on the DL with hamstring problems and didn't return. Joe Oliver, C, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 196 48 7 0 8 18 26 2 15 1 37 1 1 .245 .302 .403 .705 23 Prorated DET 151 37 5 0 6 14 20 2 12 1 28 1 1 .245 .302 .403 .705 18 Actual DET 155 35 8 0 4 8 22 0 7 0 33 0 1 .226 .253 .355 .608 13 Actual SEA 85 19 3 0 2 12 10 0 10 0 15 1 0 .224 .305 .329 .635 9 Actual TOT 240 54 11 0 6 20 32 0 17 0 48 1 1 .225 .272 .346 .618 21 Oliver was signed as a minor league free agent last December and was seen as insurance in case Casanova did not recover from a bad second half in 1997. He shared duties with Casanova and then Bako, but didn't hit as well as expected and was released in the middle of July. Paul Bako, C, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual DET 305 83 12 1 3 23 30 0 23 4 82 1 1 .272 .319 .348 .667 35 No projection. Bako hit .243 at AAA in 1997, but got called up when Casanova went down early in the season. He did the bulk of the catching after Oliver was released. Tony Clark, 1B, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 595 157 26 1 36 99 113 2 74 8 165 0 2 .264 .344 .492 .837 102 Prorated DET 591 156 26 1 36 98 112 2 74 8 164 0 2 .264 .344 .492 .837 101 Actual DET 602 175 37 0 34 84 103 3 63 5 128 3 3 .291 .358 .522 .880 110 Like a lot of Tigers, Clark got off to a slow start in 1998 before finishing up with a fine season. His walks were down from 93 a year earlier, but he compensated for that by posting the highest batting average and slugging percentage of his short career. Damion Easley, 2B/SS, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 542 139 32 2 20 89 71 13 58 2 98 22 11 .256 .340 .434 .773 80 Prorated DET 565 145 33 2 21 93 74 14 60 2 102 23 11 .256 .340 .434 .773 83 Actual DET 594 161 38 2 27 84 100 16 39 2 112 15 5 .271 .332 .478 .810 96 Easley was the best second baseman in baseball over the first two months of the season. On May 29th, he had 16 HRs and 47 RBIs in 48 games to go with a .337 batting average. Over his last 105 games, however, his numbers would drop to a less-than-stellar 11 HRs, 53 RBIs and a .242 average. He suffered from some nagging injuries down the stretch (a sprained ankle and a fractured finger in August alone) which contributed to his dropoff at the plate. Frank Catalanotto, 2B/DH/1B, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 67 18 4 0 2 9 8 1 6 1 9 1 1 .269 .333 .418 .751 9 Prorated DET 209 56 12 0 6 28 25 3 19 3 28 3 3 .269 .333 .418 .751 29 Actual DET 213 60 13 2 6 23 25 4 12 1 39 3 2 .282 .325 .446 .771 31 Although he had been a second baseman in the minors, Catalanotto also served as a backup to Tony Clark at first base last year. He saw a lot more action than expected due to his versatility and the absence of an established DH on the team. Used as a platoon player, he faced only 11 lefties all season (and got 4 hits off them). Deivi Cruz, SS, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 506 126 30 0 4 43 49 0 16 0 62 4 7 .249 .270 .332 .602 43 Prorated DET 444 111 26 0 4 38 43 0 14 0 54 4 6 .249 .270 .332 .602 37 Actual DET 454 118 22 3 5 52 45 3 13 0 55 3 4 .260 .284 .355 .639 43 Cruz fractured his left ankle playing winter ball and was lost to the Tigers until the end of April. His absence was blamed by some for Detroit's terrible start, but they also played poorly in August when he was in lineup. Had an extreme platoon differential in 1998 (hit .340 versus lefties and only .236 against righties) despite hitting better against left-handed pitching (.250 to .214) in his rookie season. Joe Randa, 3B/2B, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 556 156 32 5 12 67 72 4 48 3 87 8 4 .281 .339 .421 .760 78 Prorated DET 462 130 27 4 10 56 60 3 40 2 72 7 3 .281 .339 .421 .760 65 Actual DET 460 117 21 2 9 56 50 7 41 1 70 8 7 .254 .323 .367 .690 55 Picked by the Diamondbacks in the expansion draft, Randa was then sent to the Tigers in a deal for Travis Fryman. He had hit over .300 in each of his two major league seasons prior to 1998. Finished strongly (hit .330 over the final five weeks), but with the signing of Dean Palmer, Randa was traded to the Mets (who in turn sent him to the Royals) for Willie Blair after the season. Luis Gonzalez, LF/DH, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 510 134 31 5 16 74 81 5 66 9 58 8 7 .263 .349 .437 .786 77 Prorated DET 537 141 33 5 17 78 85 5 69 9 61 8 7 .263 .349 .437 .786 81 Actual DET 547 146 35 5 23 84 71 8 57 7 62 12 7 .267 .340 .475 .816 90 Gonzalez was signed as a free-agent during the off-season, and while he had more power than expected (15 of his 23 homers were hit at home), his other numbers were more in line with our projections. He was traded recently to the Diamondbacks for Karim Garcia, who was a disappointment for Arizona in 1998. Garcia is seven years younger than Gonzalez and still highly regarded because of some excellent AAA seasons in the Dodgers' farm system. Is it just me or have there been a lot of under-achieving phenoms coming out of Albuquerque (Los Angeles' AAA club) over the last couple of years? Brian Lee Hunter, CF, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 599 164 27 4 5 98 44 1 44 0 102 54 14 .274 .322 .357 .679 73 Prorated DET 583 160 26 4 5 95 43 1 43 0 99 53 14 .274 .322 .357 .679 71 Actual DET 595 151 29 3 4 67 36 2 36 0 94 42 12 .254 .298 .333 .631 61 AL's leading base stealer in 1997, Hunter was expected to improve his game last year. Instead, he was the worst hitting center-fielder in the league. He has no power, seldom walks, and barely hit .250. Unless he has a breakthrough season soon, it's hard to imagine him holding down a major league job for too much longer. Bob Higginson, RF/LF, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 569 165 33 3 29 95 97 3 73 4 95 10 5 .290 .370 .511 .882 110 Prorated DET 598 173 35 3 30 100 102 3 77 4 100 11 5 .290 .370 .511 .882 116 Actual DET 612 174 37 4 25 92 85 6 63 2 101 3 3 .284 .355 .480 .835 103 He was a mild disappointment in 1998. Both his on-base and slugging percentages have declined now for two years in a row. The fact that he hasn't been improving at this stage of his career is not an encouraging sign. Juan Encarnacion, RF/CF, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 68 17 3 0 3 9 10 2 4 1 13 2 0 .250 .307 .426 .733 9 Prorated DET 159 40 7 0 7 21 23 5 9 2 30 5 0 .250 .307 .426 .733 22 Actual DET 164 54 9 4 7 30 21 1 7 0 31 7 4 .329 .354 .561 .915 32 Encarnacion was a top prospect who was finally ready this season. Prior to spring training, many thought he was a long-shot candidate for the Rookie of the Year award. He fractured his left foot in spring training, however, and was out for two months. Spent most of the rest of the summer in the minor leagues until his recall in mid-August. He still needs to walk more (although his batting eye has been steadily improving in the minors), but Encarnacion should play regularly in 1999. Bip Roberts, DH, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 715 196 34 1 4 92 77 5 46 7 107 28 7 .274 .319 .341 .660 81 Prorated DET 122 33 6 0 1 16 13 1 8 1 18 5 1 .274 .319 .341 .660 14 Actual DET 113 28 6 0 0 17 9 2 16 0 14 6 1 .248 .351 .301 .652 13 Actual OAK 182 51 11 0 1 28 15 2 15 0 24 10 3 .280 .340 .357 .697 23 Actual TOT 295 79 17 0 1 45 24 4 31 0 38 16 4 .268 .344 .336 .680 36 Signed as a free agent before the season, Roberts went on the DL with a hamstring pull in late May and wore out his welcome by not playing hard when he returned. Toward the end of June he was traded to Oakland for Jason Wood. Key PitchersAfter improving their staff ERA from 6.38 (the worst in AL history) to a respectable 4.56 in 1997, the Tigers expected continued progress last year. Unfortunately, a huge improvement one season is often followed by a step backward the next, and the Tigers did just that in 1998. And while their 4.93 ERA didn't approach their previous mark for pitching ineptitude, it was not what their fans (or we) expected. Justin Thompson, Starter, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection DET 3.30 32 32 15 9 0 218 196 19 70 154 .242 Prorated DET 3.30 34 34 16 10 0 230 207 20 74 163 .242 Actual DET 4.05 34 34 11 15 0 222 227 20 79 149 .267 Thompson had off-season surgery to remove deposits in his throwing elbow. He recovered to give Detroit 222 innings, or just about what he pitched in 1997. The workload might have worn him down, however, since Thompson's record was 10-10 with a 3.55 ERA on August 19th and only 1-5 with a 6.41 ERA afterward. Brian Moehler, Starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection DET 5.28 32 32 8 12 0 189 225 22 66 102 .299 Prorated DET 5.28 35 35 9 13 0 208 247 24 72 112 .299 Actual DET 3.90 33 33 14 13 0 221 220 30 56 123 .260 Moehler was another pitcher who gave the Tigers a lot of innings last year. He improved every aspect of his game, as both his hits and walks per nine innings decreased and his strikeouts increased. He pitched about as well as we expected him to on the road (5-10 with a 5.20 ERA), but was great at home (9-3, 2.83). Frank Castillo, Starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection DET 5.21 32 32 10 12 0 190 215 29 63 130 .287 Prorated DET 5.21 20 20 6 8 0 121 137 19 40 83 .287 Actual DET 6.83 27 19 3 9 1 116 150 17 44 81 .316 Castillo started the season on the DL with a sore shoulder before replacing Sanders in the rotation in mid-April. By the time he was finally put in the bullpen two months later, he had a 2-5 record and a 11.29 ERA. He pitched much better in relief (1.13 in 24 innings compared to 8.32 as a starter), but was returned to the starting rotation in July and, while he did not continue to give up more than a run an inning, his record was still poor (1-4, with a 6.34 ERA). Brian Powell, Starter, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual DET 6.35 18 16 3 8 0 84 101 17 36 46 .294 We didn't do a projection for him. Powell had no experience above A ball prior to 1998, but he went 10-2 with a 3.07 ERA at AA, followed that up with seven shutout innings at AAA, and got called up to the Tigers in a major pitching shake-up in late June. In retrospect, he probably wasn't ready. Seth Greisinger, Starter, age 22Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual DET 5.12 21 21 6 9 0 130 142 17 48 66 .282 The Tigers top pick in the 1996 free-agent draft, Greisinger had posted a 5.20 at AA last season. As a result, we didn't do a projection for him. He pitched well in the early going at AAA, and when he was recalled in early June, was immediately thrown into the starting rotation. Greisinger survived the force-feeding and should figure prominently in their 1999 plans. Bryce Florie, Starter/Middle Relief, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection DET 3.70 34 4 4 3 0 73 64 6 38 58 .240 Prorated DET 3.70 63 7 7 6 0 135 119 11 70 107 .240 Actual DET 4.80 42 16 8 9 0 133 141 16 59 97 .275 Florie worked out of the bullpen until replacing Worrell in the rotation in May. He went on the DL with a strained back at the end of June for three weeks, but finished strong (2-0 with a 2.88 ERA in September). Tim Worrell, Starter/Middle Relief, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection DET 5.10 27 27 6 7 0 145 155 19 68 107 .276 Prorated DET 5.10 11 11 2 3 0 59 63 8 28 44 .276 Actual DET 5.98 15 9 2 6 0 62 66 11 19 47 .270 Actual CLE 5.06 3 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 2 2 .300 Actual OAK 4.00 25 0 0 1 0 36 34 5 8 33 .241 Actual TOT 5.24 43 9 2 7 0 103 106 16 29 82 .262 Worrell pitched poorly at the start of the season and was taken out of the starting rotation at the end of May. He spent a month working out of the bullpen before being traded to Cleveland for Geronimo Berroa. Scott Sanders, Starter/Middle Relief, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection DET 4.49 32 32 9 10 0 180 175 30 66 165 .255 Prorated DET 4.49 2 2 1 1 0 13 13 2 5 12 .255 Actual DET 17.69 3 2 0 2 0 10 24 1 6 6 .471 Actual SDN 4.11 23 0 3 1 0 31 33 5 5 26 .270 Actual TOT 7.36 26 2 3 3 0 40 57 6 11 32 .329 Counted on to help make up for Willie Blair's absence this season, Sanders was yanked out of the starting rotation after only two starts and sent to the minor leagues. GM Randy Smith, assuming that his team was going to be in a pennant race, defended the quick hook by saying that the Tigers couldn't afford the luxury of being patient with Sanders. In May, Detriot sent Sanders and a million dollars to San Diego for a player to be named later. Todd Jones, Closer, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection DET 3.86 70 0 4 5 27 72 70 6 35 63 .256 Prorated DET 3.86 62 0 4 4 24 64 62 5 31 56 .256 Actual DET 4.97 65 0 1 4 28 63 58 7 36 57 .249 Jones has alternated good and bad seasons for the last four years (3.07, 4.40, 3.09 and 4.97) so, if you believe in numerology, 1999 should be a pretty good year for the Tigers' closer. He didn't allow that many more base runners than we expected; he just allowed a higher percentage of them to score. Jones converted an even higher percentage of his save opportunities last year (28 of 32) than he did in 1997 (31 of 36) when his ERA was nearly two runs lower. Doug Brocail, Middle Relief, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection DET 5.17 70 0 3 4 1 71 78 11 29 48 .281 Prorated DET 5.17 55 0 2 3 1 56 61 9 23 38 .281 Actual DET 2.73 60 0 5 2 0 63 47 2 18 55 .211 Brocail allowed only 6 earned runs in 50 innings (for a 1.08 ERA) over his last 47 games in 1997. Given that his career ERA was 4.84 prior to his hot streak, we thought he'd revert to form last year. He started slowly and had a 9.00 ERA at the end of April. But once again, he finished on a roll, posting a 1.67 ERA over his last 48 games. The opening day starter in 1997, he seems to have settled into his role as a setup man. Matt Anderson, Middle Relief, age 21Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual DET 3.27 42 0 5 1 0 44 38 3 31 44 .250 The number one overall pick in the 1997 amateur draft, Anderson did not sign with the team last winter. He allowed only 3 earned runs in 41 innings of minor league ball before getting called up in late June and could take the closer job from Jones next season. Sean Runyan, Middle Relief, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection DET 5.13 40 0 2 3 0 53 58 6 28 46 .282 Actual DET 3.58 88 0 1 4 1 50 47 7 28 39 .255 When the Tigers failed to sign Mike Myers, the role of the lefty setup man went to Runyan, who was drafted from the Padres organization over the winter. Myers had pitched in more than 80 games in both 1996 and 1997 and Runyan followed suit last year. Both probably threw more pitches warming up than in their games as they averaged about 2/3 of an inning per outing. Runyan set the rookie record for most games pitched. The previous holder of the mark? Mike Myers. OutlookThe recent signing of free agent Dean Palmer to a 5-year, $36 million contract can't help but improve their offense next year. On the other hand, the recent addition of Gregg Jefferies is not good news for Tigers fans. True, he did hit over .300 last season, but with few walks and little power, he actually had a much worse season at the plate than Luis Gonzalez, the man he's supposed to replace in left field. Juan Encarnacion should be ready make a significant contribution, but the Tigers won't be ready to seriously contend until they can get more offense up the middle, particularly in center field. The pitching staff should improve next season. Willie Blair is back, after a poor season spent in Arizona and New York, and while there is little chance that he'll ever go 16-8 again, he should be a serviceable fourth or fifth starter. Anderson, Greisinger and Powell seem poised to play more prominent roles, and if Thompson and Moehler can continue to shoulder large workloads without breaking down, the Tigers pitchers could be average in 1999. |
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