1998 Post-Season Review -- Florida Marlins

By Tom Tippett
January 6, 1998

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs scored         783      667
Runs allowed        832      923
Run margin          -49     -256
Wins                 76       54
Pythagorean wins     76       56
Placement           3rd      5th

The Marlins won 92 games and the World Series in 1997 before dismantling the team in a futile bid to shed enough salary so club president Don Smiley could afford to buy the team from Wayne Huizenga. Despite dumping even more talent after the season started, Smiley wasn't able to come up with the money, so we're left to wonder whether it was really necessary to gut what was briefly a talented and exciting mix of stars and promising young players.

As of mid-March, our projections suggested that the remaining players and prospects were good enough to win a respectable 76 games and finish third in the NL East. When the team got off to a horrible start, it became apparent that this was much too optimistic. And when they traded away their few remaining veterans early in the season, it became clear that management didn't give a hoot about the fans who had supported them down the stretch and through the 1997 post-season. The result was a dreadful 54-win season that fell 22 wins short of our expectations.

It would be easy to say that the 76-win projection was obviously too high even with the players they still had in mid-March. But fourteen magazines predicted the 1998 standings last spring, and nobody picked the Marlins to finish 5th. Two publications put them in 2nd, and six more in 3rd. So it can't be said that everyone knew they'd be this bad.

It would also be easy to say that everyone knew they'd continue to dump salary after the season started, but there was no way anyone could factor that into their forecasts. How many players would go? Would they be traded for established players or prospects? How soon would the moves be made? Without knowing these things, forecasters had only one choice, and that was to go with the rosters as they were at the time of publication.

And it would be easy to say that the salary dump was the sole reason why they fell 22 wins short of our forecast. But they started losing before they traded Sheffield, Bonilla, and Johnson to LA. Before they moved Piazza to New York only a week after picking him up. And before they dealt Zeile to Texas. So there's more to the story, and it's worth taking a closer look.

Key Position Players

The team was projected to score 783 runs but produced only 667, a shortfall of 116 runs. But it wasn't because a lot of players had subpar seasons. Some players failed to produce (Zaun was terrible, Renteria a little below par), but others were better than expected (Floyd, Redmond). Most of the decline came about because they shipped their best hitters to other clubs. Sheffield was replaced by Dunwoody (a loss of 50-60 runs created), Bonilla by several lesser hitters (Berg, Orie, Booty), and Johnson by Zaun (who could have replaced Johnson's bat, but didn't).

Charles Johnson, C, age 26 (as of July 1, 1998)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 524 126 27  1 22  54  69  4  68  7 128  0  1  .240  .330  .422  .752  71
Prorated   FLO 113  27  6  0  5  12  15  1  15  2  28  0  0  .240  .330  .422  .752  15
Actual     FLO 113  25  5  0  7  13  23  0  16  0  30  0  1  .221  .315  .451  .767  16
Actual     LA  346  75 13  0 12  31  35  1  29  1  99  0  1  .217  .279  .358  .638  33
Actual     TOT 459 100 18  0 19  44  58  1  45  1 129  0  2  .218  .289  .381  .670  49

Was expected to make a decent contribution with the bat despite a low batting average, as his walk rate and power are above average. That's exactly what he did before the trade to LA.

Greg Zaun, C, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO  65  18  4  1  1  10   8  1   9  1   9  0  0  .277  .373  .415  .789  11
Prorated   FLO 293  81 18  5  5  45  36  5  41  5  41  0  0  .277  .373  .415  .789  48
Actual     FLO 298  56 12  2  5  19  29  1  35  2  52  5  2  .188  .274  .292  .566  25

Zaun came into the season having batted .301 with plenty of walks and a little power in 143 AB the year before. So the Marlins may have been expecting him to do more of the same after Johnson was traded away. As you can see from his projected stats, it would have been asking too much for that to happen again, but a solid offensive contribution was a reasonable bet. As it turned out, Zaun produced almost nothing at the plate, blowing a great opportunity to establish himself as a regular.

Mike Redmond, C, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     FLO 118  39  9  0  2  10  12  2   5  2  16  0  0  .331  .368  .458  .826  18

Redmond wasn't on our radar screen in the spring because he was already 27 years old and had earned only 61 atbats at the AAA level (where he batted .213) to that point in his career. I don't see any evidence in his minor-league record to suggest that his 1998 numbers were anything but a fluke. Still, he's got to have some talent, as one doesn't get 39 hits in 118 atbats solely by chance.

Randy Knorr, C, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO  70  14  3  0  1   6   7  0   5  1  12  0  0  .200  .253  .286  .539   4
Prorated   FLO  48  10  2  0  1   4   5  0   3  1   8  0  0  .200  .253  .286  .539   3
Actual     FLO  49  10  4  1  2   4  11  0   1  0  10  0  0  .204  .216  .449  .665   5

Knorr has power (19 homers in 521 career atbats) but hasn't done enough other things well to earn a starting catcher role with any of the three teams he's been with so far. Should continue to get a shot as a second or third catcher. He batted .328 with a .507 slugging average in 201 AAA atbats this summer.

Derrek Lee, 1B, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 179  46  9  0  6  26  21  0  18  1  50  4  2  .257  .323  .408  .731  24
Prorated   FLO 464 119 23  0 16  67  54  0  47  3 130 10  5  .257  .323  .408  .731  62
Actual     FLO 454 106 29  1 17  62  74 10  47  1 120  5  2  .233  .318  .414  .732  60

One of many young Marlins who were thrust into the lineup, Lee did enough to keep his job, though he did platoon with Ryan Jackson for a while. Despite his .233 average, he was only 13 points below the league on on-base percentage, and his power is already above average. All in all, a very solid debut, and a performance that was right in line with his projections.

Ryan Jackson, 1B/RF/LF, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     FLO 260  65 15  1  5  26  31  1  20  0  73  1  1  .250  .305  .373  .678  30

We probably should have foreseen that he would play this year even though he'd never played above AA before this season. He's always hit for average and power in the low to middle minors. It's not clear whether he did enough to earn a lot of playing time in the future. He'll have to battle Lee for time at 1B and a crop of good young players for time in the outfield.

Craig Counsell, 2B, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 606 163 30  7  5  81  64  8  62  7  66 12  5  .269  .341  .366  .707  79
Prorated   FLO 349  94 17  4  3  47  37  5  36  4  38  7  3  .269  .341  .366  .707  46
Actual     FLO 335  84 19  5  4  43  40  4  51  7  47  3  0  .251  .355  .373  .729  48

Wasn't able to match his impressive 1997 performance, when he batted .299 down the stretch and made a major contribution to the Marlins run to the World Series. But that was no surprise, as that stretch of 164 atbats wasn't supported by his minor-league numbers. His projections for 1998 were more modest, and his contribution was quite consistent with those projections. Missed the last two months of the season after a pitch broke his jaw.

Luis Castillo, 2B, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO  67  18  2  0  0   9   3  0   7  0  13  5  3  .269  .338  .299  .636   7
Prorated   FLO 158  42  5  0  0  21   7  0  17  0  31 12  7  .269  .338  .299  .636  16
Actual     FLO 153  31  3  2  1  21  10  1  22  0  33  3  0  .203  .307  .268  .575  15

It's easy to forget that he's only 22, since he's already had and lost the regular 2B once in his brief career. Hit quite well in AAA this year (.286, .403 OBP, 41 steals) and was called up when Counsell broke his jaw. Given his age, walk rate and speed, I think there's still a good chance that he'll have a meaningful career at the big-league level.

Dave Berg, 2B/3B/SS, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO  64  16  3  1  1  10   6  1   8  0  11  2  1  .250  .342  .375  .717   8
Prorated   FLO 182  48  9  3  3  30  18  3  24  0  33  6  3  .250  .342  .375  .717  24
Actual     FLO 182  57 11  0  2  18  21  0  26  1  46  3  0  .313  .393  .407  .800  33

Was already 26 years old before he made it to AAA, so he wasn't regarded as a top prospect before the season. But he came through very nicely in a utility role this year.

Bobby Bonilla, 3B, age 35

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 518 149 30  4 18  77  88  4  60  7  82  2  4  .288  .360  .465  .825  86
Prorated   FLO  96  28  6  1  3  14  16  1  11  1  15  0  1  .288  .360  .465  .825  16
Actual     FLO  97  27  5  0  4  11  15  0  12  1  22  0  1  .278  .355  .454  .808  14
Actual     LAN 236  56  6  1  7  28  30  0  29  3  37  1  1  .237  .315  .360  .675  26
Actual     TOT 333  83 11  1 11  39  45  0  41  4  59  1  2  .249  .326  .387  .714  40

Began the season with an injury, so there was a question of how soon or how well he would bounce back. The good news is that he returned to the lineup on schedule and hit at his normal level for the Marlins. It was only after the trade to LA that he stopped hitting.

Todd Zeile, 3B, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection LAN 536 134 19  0 23  70  76  4  74  5 100  3  4  .250  .342  .414  .757  76
Prorated   LAN 147  37  5  0  6  19  21  1  20  1  27  1  1  .250  .342  .414  .757  21
Actual     LAN 158  40  6  1  7  22  27  1  10  0  24  1  1  .253  .300  .437  .737  19
Actual     FLO 234  68 12  1  6  37  39  2  31  2  34  2  3  .291  .374  .427  .801  39
Actual     TEX 180  47 14  1  6  26  28  1  28  0  32  1  0  .261  .358  .450  .808  31
Actual     TOT 572 155 32  3 19  85  94  4  69  2  90  4  4  .271  .350  .437  .787  89

Zeile's overall performance for the year basically matched his projections when you allow for the fact that the projection was based on playing a full year in Dodger Stadium, the worst hitters' park in baseball. He acquitted himself very well in Florida before moving on to Texas for the stretch run.

Kevin Orie, 3B, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection CHN 536 148 36  5 14  63  76  5  59  5  82  3  2  .276  .350  .440  .790  82
Prorated   CHN 202  56 14  2  5  24  29  2  22  2  31  1  1  .276  .350  .440  .790  31
Actual     CHN 204  37 14  0  2  24  21  3  18  0  35  1  1  .181  .253  .279  .533  15
Actual     FLO 175  46  8  1  6  23  17  5  14  2  24  1  0  .263  .335  .423  .758  25
Actual     TOT 379  83 22  1  8  47  38  8  32  2  59  2  1  .219  .291  .346  .636  39

He was awful with the Cubs, but bounced back to his projected level of performance after being dealt to Florida. (His projection was based on playing in Wrigley Field.) Orie may be one of those guys who's stuck between positions. He was drafted by the Cubs as a SS but wasn't considered to be major-league caliber defensively. So he was moved to 3B, where he's become a superior fielder but hasn't yet shown the ability to hit as well as the average major-league 3B. It's not yet clear whether he'll have a career as an offensive SS or a defensive 3B. Or come up just a little short at both positions.

Josh Booty, 3B, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 101  17  3  0  3   6  11  0   3  0  32  0  0  .168  .190  .287  .478   5
Prorated   FLO  21   4  1  0  1   1   2  0   1  0   7  0  0  .168  .190  .287  .478   1
Actual     FLO  19   3  1  0  0   0   3  0   3  0   8  0  0  .158  .273  .211  .483   1

Back in spring training, talk was that Booty would start at 3B until Bonilla was ready to return, despite the complete absence of any evidence that he can hit better than the average pitcher. This experiment ended very quickly, and Booty spent almost all of 1998 in the minors, where he batted .142 at AAA and .202 at AA, striking out at a prodigious rate.

Edgar Renteria, SS, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 640 188 25  5  6  93  55  4  44  1 104 33 11  .294  .340  .377  .717  82
Prorated   FLO 524 154 20  4  5  76  45  3  36  1  85 27  9  .294  .340  .377  .717  68
Actual     FLO 517 146 18  2  3  79  31  4  48  1  78 41 22  .282  .347  .342  .689  61

Renteria had a bit of an off year, creating 7 fewer runs than projected, but one cannot be too disappointed with a performance like this from a 22-year-old. Nevertheless, the Marlins traded Renteria to the Cardinals after the season, perhaps because Renteria will start making big money soon, perhaps because they feel Alex Gonzalez is the better long term bet at SS. Missed a little time late in the year with a bruised right knee.

Alex Gonzalez, SS, age 21

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     FLO  86  13  2  0  3  11   7  1   9  0  30  0  0  .151  .240  .279  .519   6

Hadn't played above AA before this year, and with Renteria holding down the SS job, we didn't expect him to be on the big club until next year. He earned a shot by playing very well at AAA (.277 with decent power), and appears to be the heir apparent now that Renteria's been traded to the Cardinals.

Cliff Floyd, LF, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 389  97 23  3 13  55  54  6  45  1  93 15  4  .249  .334  .424  .758  58
Prorated   FLO 562 140 33  4 19  79  78  9  65  1 134 22  6  .249  .334  .424  .758  84
Actual     FLO 588 166 45  3 22  85  90  3  47  7 112 27 14  .282  .337  .481  .818  93

This was his sixth season in the majors (not bad for a 25-year-old) but the first in which he got more than 400 AB. There's no question that he earned his playing time.

Todd Dunwoody, CF, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 511 117 19 10 16  68  64  6  37  4 153 24  6  .229  .288  .399  .687  59
Prorated   FLO 425  97 16  8 13  57  53  5  31  3 127 20  5  .229  .288  .399  .687  49
Actual     FLO 434 109 27  7  5  53  28  4  21  0 113  5  1  .251  .292  .380  .672  48

Was projected to create 49 runs, and he created 48, despite taking fewer walks and having a bunch of his projected homers materialize as doubles instead. He'll have to get better to earn a regular CF job for the long haul, but he's young enough to do that.

Gary Sheffield, RF, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 444 124 24  1 27  94  85 12 117 13  71 13  8  .279  .438  .520  .959 110
Prorated   FLO 128  36  7  0  8  27  24  3  34  4  20  4  2  .279  .438  .520  .959  32
Actual     FLO 136  37 11  1  6  21  28  2  26  1  16  4  2  .272  .392  .500  .892  28
Actual     LAN 301  95 16  1 16  52  57  6  69 11  30 18  5  .316  .444  .535  .979  80
Actual     TOT 437 132 27  2 22  73  85  8  95 12  46 22  7  .302  .428  .524  .952 108

Sheffield was projected to create 110 runs this year, and that was one reason why it appeared the Marlins would win 76 games. He actually produced 108 runs, but 80 of them were for the Dodgers. Sheffield's been a star for so long that it's easy to forget that he didn't turn 30 until after the season.

Mark Kotsay, RF/CF, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 590 140 27 3  12  92  69  0  70  3  76 22  4  .237  .317  .354  .671  67
Prorated   FLO 553 131 25 3  11  86  65  0  66  3  71 21  4  .237  .317  .354  .671  63
Actual     FLO 578 161 25 7  11  72  68  1  34  2  61 10  5  .279  .318  .403  .721  70

Kotsay is often described as a player who is not blessed with great tools but uses superior baseball instincts to get the job done. He used those instincts to jump from AA ball to major-league regular, and he didn't disappoint. To be a star, he'll need to add walks and power, but there's plenty of time for him to do that. He's already a good defensive player.

John Cangelosi, OF, age 35

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO  79  21  3  1  0  13   5  1  11  0  13  4  1  .266  .363  .329  .692  11
Prorated   FLO 181  48  7  2  0  30  11  2  25  0  30  9  2  .266  .363  .329  .692  24
Actual     FLO 171  43  8  0  1  19  10  1  30  0  23  2  3  .251  .365  .316  .680  21

One of the few veteran players to spend the entire season with Florida, this utility outfielder had a typical season at the plate. I've always liked him. He had only one season as a regular, but he hit a little, took a lot of walks, played good defense, and was an asset on the bases.

Jim Eisenreich, OF, age 39

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection FLO 125  38  8  1  1  15  15  0  12  3  12  1  1  .304  .362  .408 .770   18
Prorated   FLO  61  19  4  0  0   7   7  0   6  1   6  0  0  .304  .362  .408 .770    9
Actual     FLO  64  16  1  0  1   9   7  0   4  1  14  2  0  .250  .294  .313 .607    6
Actual     LAN 127  25  2  2  0  12   6  0  12  1  22  4  0  .197  .266  .244 .510    9
Actual     TOT 191  41  3  2  1  21  13  0  16  2  36  6  0  .215  .275  .267 .542   15

This was his first poor season in ten years, and at his age, it might be asking too much for him to bounce back. I hope he does.

Key Pitchers

The Marlins pitching staff gave up 91 more runs than projected. It wasn't because they traded Charles Johnson, who has a reputation as a first-rate defensive catcher, because the staff ERA was 5.44 with Johnson behind the plate and 5.15 with Gregg Zaun calling the signals. An off year from Livan Hernandez accounted for about 25 of those extra runs. The rest is spread among a bunch of youngsters who proved that they weren't yet ready for prime time.

Livan Hernandez, Starter, age 23

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  3.81 32 32 11  9  0  175 167 10  82 140  .252
Prorated   FLO  3.81 43 43 15 12  0  237 226 14 111 190  .252
Actual     FLO  4.72 33 33 10 12  0  234 265 37 104 162  .289

Entered the season as the staff ace, but wasn't able to build on his strong 1997 season. I pray that Hernandez doesn't pay for being overused. He tossed an average of 119 pitches per start, second only to Curt Schilling (120). Schilling's arm can take it, but we don't yet know if Livan's can, and there was no reason to take a chance when the team wasn't even trying to win this year. Hernandez was 1-5 with an ERA over 5.50 during August and September. Tired arm? Quite possibly.

Brian Meadows, Starter, age 22

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  5.39 27 27  4  9  0  159 188 22  52  94  .296
Prorated   FLO  5.39 31 31  5 10  0  183 216 25  60 108  .296
Actual     FLO  5.21 31 31 11 13  0  174 222 20  46  88  .315

Made the jump from AA to the majors this year, and pitched about as well as his minor-league numbers indicated he would. That's something many of his fellow rookies were unable to do.

Jesus Sanchez, Starter, age 23

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     FLO  4.47 35 29  7  9  0  173 178 18  91 137  .272

Came over from the Mets in the Al Leiter trade and made the jump from AA. He was quite effective, finishing only a little worse than the league-average starter. We didn't do a projection for him, but hindsight says we should have. Sanchez has a better minor-league record than many of the other young pitchers who got a shot this year, so it wouldn't have been a stretch to include him. He looks like a keeper.

Rafael Medina, Starter, age 23

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  6.06 32 32  8 14  0  177 206 26 109 156  .294
Prorated   FLO  6.06 12 12  3  5  0   66  77 10  41  59  .294  
Actual     FLO  6.01 12 12  2  6  0   67  76  8  52  49  .289

Was expected to struggle in his rookie season, and did just that. Also got nine starts at AAA this year, and was merely okay there (4-2, 3.90 ERA, 81 baserunners in 58 innings). Has yet to post a good W/K ratio above the AA level. Missed most of the first half of the season with a shoulder problem.

Andy Larkin, Starter, age 24

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  5.64  4  4  1  1  0   22  27  3  11  16  .303
Prorated   FLO  5.64 14 14  4  4  0   80  97 11  39  57  .303
Actual     FLO  9.64 17 14  3  8  0   75 101 12  55  43  .329

Through 1996, his minor league career was marked by good control and consistent success at the A and AA levels. His control worsened in 1997, when he walked 76 in 144 innings and posted a 6.05 ERA in his first AAA season. After being called up when Ludwick went on the DL in mid-April, he was even worse this year, at both the AAA and major-league level.

Ryan Dempster, Starter, age 21

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     FLO  7.08 14 11  1  5  0   55  72  6  38  35  .336

We didn't do a projection for him because he'd never pitched above A ball prior to this year. After pitching quite effectively at the AA and AAA levels, he was called up in early June when they gave up on Larkin. His control has always been good in the past, so the fact that he walked 38 in 55 innings may be a sign that he hasn't yet gained enough confidence to throw strikes to big-league hitters. No big surprise there, as those hitters tattooed him for a .336 average.

Joe Fontenot, Starter, age 21

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     FLO  6.33  8  8  0  7  0   43  56  5  20  24  .320

Had a 5.53 ERA in AA ball in 1997, so it didn't seem likely he'd be up with the Marlins this year. Pitched well in seven AAA starts, but was ineffective for Florida. Like many others on the Florida staff, he would have spent the year in AAA if he was with an organization that saw fit to put a major league team on the field. Went on the DL with a sore shoulder in mid-July and did not return.

Kirt Ojala, Swing man, age 29

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  5.34 70  0  5  8  1  116 136 13  50  90  .294
Prorated   FLO  5.34 74  0  5  8  1  123 144 14  53  95  .294
Actual     FLO  4.25 41 13  2  7  0  125 128 14  59  75  .267

One of the older members of the team, and one of the few Marlins pitchers to exceed expectations this year. Began the season in the bullpen but was moved into the rotation in July. Doesn't seem to be star material, as he didn't make AAA until he was 24, then spent five seasons at that level before getting his first shot in the majors.

Eric Ludwick, Swing man, age 26

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  5.14 32 32  8 10  0  168 186 21  84 171  .281
Prorated   FLO  5.14  7  7  2  2  0   35  39  4  17  35  .281
Actual     FLO  7.44 13  6  1  4  0   33  46  7  17  27  .333

Ludwick was battered this year in more ways than one. He made three visits to the DL for a total of 3-1/2 months, twice after being hit by line drives. With that type of adversity punctuating his 1998 season, it might not be fair to judge him on his 33 innings. But while Ludwick has several good years at AAA under his belt, his ERA is 8.10 in his 73 innings at the big-league level, and it's time he showed the ability to get major leaguers out.

Rob Stanifer, Long relief, age 26

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  5.13 30  0  2  2  0   40  45  6  15  32  .283
Prorated   FLO  5.13 37  0  2  2  0   50  56  7  19  39  .283
Actual     FLO  5.63 38  0  2  4  1   48  54  5  22  30  .277

Stanifer, who hasn't had much success above the AA level, was projected to be a below-average long reliever. And he was.

Antonio Alfonseca, Middle reliever/Closer, age 26

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  5.34 70  0  5  7  2  116 139 10  44  88  .298
Prorated   FLO  5.34 42  0  3  4  1   70  84  6  26  53  .298
Actual     FLO  4.08 58  0  4  6  8   71  75 10  33  46  .281

His ERA is a little misleading, as he allowed baserunners at about the projected rate and gave up quite a few homers. He was a below-average pitcher, and ended the season on the DL with bone spurs that were expected to require surgery.

Vic Darensbourg, Middle reliever, age 27

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     FLO  3.68 59  0  0  7  1   71  52  5  30  74  .207

His AAA stats were mediocre in 1996 and 1997, but he managed to land a job as a lefty reliever, then proceeded to have a very good year. In fact, his rates of hits, homers, walks and strikeouts per nine innings were better than in any recent minor-league season. A very pleasant surprise.

Brian Edmondson, Middle reliever, age 25

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection ATL  6.05 30  0  1  3  0   39  48  5  20  32  .308
Actual     ATL  4.32 10  0  0  1  0   17  14  2   8   8  .215
Actual     FLO  3.79 43  0  4  3  0   59  62  8  29  32  .281
Actual     TOT  3.91 53  0  4  4  0   76  76 10  37  40  .266    

After being stuck in AA for a few years, he was converted from a starter to a reliever in 1996. This move revived his career, as he moved quickly through AA and AAA and began the season in the Atlanta bullpen. His projection was pretty weak because it included two AA seasons when he struggled as a starter. But don't get too excited. His season wasn't quite as good as his ERA might suggest, as he allowed 113 runners and 10 homers in 76 innings, and that normally translates into an ERA around five.

Felix Heredia, Middle reliever, age 22

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  3.75 32 32 10  8  0  175 166  9  82 144  .251
Prorated   FLO  3.75  8  8  3  2  0   44  42  2  21  36  .251
Actual     FLO  5.49 41  2  0  3  2   41  38  1  32  38  .241
Actual     CHN  4.08 30  0  3  0  0   18  19  1   6  16  .279
Actual     TOT  5.06 71  2  3  3  2   59  57  2  38  54  .252

This young lefty already has three major league seasons under his belt. A .252 opposition average and 2 homers allowed in 59 innings suggest that he'll be very, very good if he can improve his control. Was penciled in as a starter this year, but got rocked in his only two starts and spent the rest of the year in the pen.

Matt Mantei, Closer, age 24

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     FLO  2.96 42  0  3  4  9   55  38  1  23  63  .203

Pitched well enough to earn and keep the closer role, thanks primarily to a sudden ability to find the strike zone. Prior to 1998, he'd walked 34 in his 22 major league innings, and in 1998, he walked 18 in 16 innings at AAA.

Jay Powell, Middle reliever, age 26

                 ERA  G GS  W  L  S   IP   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  3.42 70  0  4  3 31   74  69  3  31  57  .252
Prorated   FLO  3.42 37  0  2  2 16   39  36  2  16  30  .252
Actual     FLO  4.21 33  0  4  4  3   36  36  5  22  24  .263
Actual     HOU  2.38 29  0  3  3  4   34  22  1  15  38  .182
Actual     TOT  3.33 62  0  7  7  0   70  58  6  37  62  .225

Began the year as the closer, but didn't live up to expectations before being traded to Houston, where he was very effective.

Outlook

There's not much reason to believe that the Marlins will score a lot more runs next year. It's not as if they have a couple of great players who had bad years and can be expected to bounce back. What they have is a bunch of young players who basically matched their projections in 1998 and can be expected to get a little better with age and experience. That alone might help them score more runs, but we don't yet know whether Gonzalez can step in at SS and replace Renteria's contribution right away. And their 1998 run total was helped by partial seasons from Sheffield, Bonilla, Johnson, and Zeile, none of whom will be with the team in 1999. So it's quite possible they could slip back a little even if their young players show some improvement. That's not a good sign for a team that was 13th in the league in scoring in 1998.

On the pitching side, they should have Alex Fernandez back to lead the staff. He missed all of 1998 with a rotator cuff problem, but appears to be on track to be ready for next year. If Livan Hernandez doesn't suffer from his heavy 1998 workload, he could bounce back. And a host of hard-throwing young pitchers got their feet wet this year. But they've got a long, long way to go. After all, they managed to finish last in the NL in staff ERA, despite pitching in the third-best pitchers' park in the league.