1998 Post-Season Review -- Houston Astros

By Tom Ruane
January 14, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Houston Astros did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            755      874
Runs allowed        707      620
Run Margin           48      254
Wins                 84      102
Pythagorean wins     86      108
Placement           3rd      1st

Despite losing their best pitcher to free agency, the Astros were not in bad shape prior to the season. Their most significant acquisition, Moises Alou, might not have been one of the better left-fielders in baseball, but he was certain to be a big improvement over Luis Gonzalez. Other than those moves, however, it was a relatively quiet off-season for Houston, and we figured that they would tread water in the NL Central, winning about the same number of games that had allowed them to capture the division title the year before. They would have been rated higher if not for injuries to two of their rotation starters, Chris Holt and Ramon Garcia. Their replacements were not expected to do well, and that served to drop them back into the pack in our projections.

We didn't foresee the Astros challenging the Braves for the best record in the league, but they did. Alou blossomed into a top power hitter, while Jose Lima and Sean Bergman proved to be very capable replacements for Holt and Garcia. The one disappointment among the starting pitchers was probably Pete Schourek and he was dropped from the rotation when Houston managed to win the Randy Johnson sweepstakes at the end of July. Sure, they gave up two very good prospects for what amounted to two months of Johnson's time, but it was great fun while it lasted.

Key Position Players

They scored 119 more runs than expected in 1998. That's a lot of runs. No other team in baseball came close to exceeding their projections by that much. How did they do it? All four of their regular (and semi-regular) outfielders put up the best numbers of their careers; Bagwell and Biggio had great seasons, and Ausmus, Gutierrez, Berry and Spiers had good ones. It was an incredible run of good fortune for Houston, and one that should give their hitting coach some measure of job security.

Brad Ausmus, C, age 29 (as of 7/1/1998)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU 556 129 26  3  5  63  48  7  56  2 105 10 11  .232  .308  .317  .625  55
Prorated   HOU 416  96 19  2  4  47  36  5  42  1  79  7  8  .232  .308  .317  .625  41
Actual     HOU 412 111 10  4  6  62  45  3  53 11  60 10  3  .269  .356  .357  .713  51

We expected Ausmus to hit somewhat worse than he had in 1997 (mostly because of his .221 average the year before that), but he ended up improving instead. His batting average was only .155 on May 10th, but he would hit .305 after that.

Tony Eusebio, C, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU  67  20  4  0  1   8  10  0   7  1   9  0  0  .299  .360  .403  .763  10
Prorated   HOU 181  54 11  0  3  22  27  0  19  3  24  0  0  .299  .360  .403  .763  26
Actual     HOU 182  46  6  1  1  13  36  1  18  2  31  1  0  .253  .320  .313  .633  18

Eusebio hit worse than we thought last year. His OPS was the lowest of his career.

Jeff Bagwell, 1B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU 510 154 40  2 25 100 104  9 118 17 101 17  6  .302  .437  .535  .972 128
Prorated   HOU 524 158 41  2 26 103 107  9 121 17 104 17  6  .302  .437  .535  .972 131
Actual     HOU 540 164 33  1 34 124 111  7 109  8  90 19  7  .304  .424  .557  .981 134

He was already off to a slow start when a self-inflicted spike wound put him on the DL at the end of May. He was hitting .234 with only 7 HRs and 22 RBIs at the time. A streaky hitter, Bagwell was on fire after returning to action and finished with a slightly better season than anticipated, mostly because his HRs did not decline very much from the career-high 43 he'd hit in 1997.

Craig Biggio, 2B, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU 552 157 25  4 15 108  69 24  76  0  69 25  7  .284  .389  .426  .815 102
Prorated   HOU 609 173 28  4 17 119  76 26  84  0  76 28  8  .284  .389  .426  .815 113
Actual     HOU 646 210 51  2 20 123  88 23  64  6 113 50  8  .325  .403  .503  .906 142

After posting the best year of his career at the age of 31 in 1997, we thought he'd be hard pressed to match those numbers last season. He did even better than that, however, setting personal highs in hits, doubles, RBIs and stolen bases.

Ricky Gutierrez, SS, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU  67  17  2  0  0   9   5  1   7  1  12  2  1  .254  .329  .284  .613   7
Prorated   HOU 488 124 15  0  0  66  36  7  51  7  87 15  7  .254  .329  .284  .613  48
Actual     HOU 491 128 24  3  2  55  46  6  54  5  84 13  7  .261  .337  .334  .671  55

We expected Bogar to be the starting shortstop in 1998, but Gutierrez took over the position by hitting .350 in April. His great hitting didn't last, and he finished with a normal season for him. (His prorated numbers show no triples or homers only because these numbers rounded off to zero when scaled down to the expected 67 atbats. Had we not rounded these numbers off, he would have been projected for four triples and three homers in his 488 atbats.)

Tim Bogar, SS/2B/3B, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU 524 124 27  0  0  80  51  7  44  0 107  8  6  .237  .300  .288  .588  50
Prorated   HOU 149  35  8  0  0  23  14  2  12  0  30  2  2  .237  .300  .288  .588  14
Actual     HOU 156  24  4  1  1  12   8  2   9  2  36  2  1  .154  .208  .212  .420   6

Bogar had a terrible year at the plate in 1998. Never a great hitter, he was coming off his best offensive season, but put up numbers more in line with what he'd done with the 1994 Mets (when he also hit .154).

Sean Berry, 3B, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU 538 150 42  2 21  64 107 10  36  1  77 12 10  .279  .332  .481  .814  83
Prorated   HOU 310  87 24  1 12  37  62  6  21  1  44  7  6  .279  .332  .481  .814  48
Actual     HOU 299  94 17  1 13  48  52  7  31  3  50  3  1  .314  .387  .508  .895  59

Coming off an injury-plagued year in 1997, Berry formed the right- hand side of a very effective third-base platoon for the Astros last year. He can hit righties well, however, and will no doubt play regularly in 1999. He'll be doing that playing for the Brewers, however, the team that signed him as a free agent after the Astros picked up Ken Caminiti.

Bill Spiers, 3B, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU 106  26  5  1  2  12  12  1  12  2  17  2  1  .245  .325  .368  .693  13
Prorated   HOU 383  94 18  4  7  43  43  4  43  7  61  7  4  .245  .325  .368  .693  47
Actual     HOU 384 105 27  4  4  66  43  5  45  0  62 11  2  .273  .356  .396  .751  57

The career-year Spiers had in 1997 was not as much of a fluke as it appeared. While he didn't hit .320 again, he continued to do well in a platoon role.

Moises Alou, LF, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU 578 156 32  3 20  88 106  5  60  9  92  9  4  .270  .340  .439  .779  86
Prorated   HOU 604 163 33  3 21  92 111  5  63  9  96  9  4  .270  .340  .439  .779  90
Actual     HOU 584 182 34  5 38 104 124  5  84 11  87 11  3  .312  .399  .582  .981 138

Alou has been an overrated player for years. Prior to last season, he'd had one great season (1994) a few good ones (1993 and 1997), and a bunch of very ordinary ones. He had hit over .300 only once, didn't walk a great deal, and had never shown the kind of power associated with the elite left-fielders in the game. Well, he has now. This was a breakthrough season for him, but as great as it was, it could have been even better had it not been for a late season slump. He didn't hit a home run after August 24th and knocked in only 6 runs during September.

Richard Hidalgo, CF/RF, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU 560 142 38  3 11  66  75  9  24  3  67  7  8  .254  .292  .391  .683  59
Prorated   HOU 218  55 15  1  4  26  29  4   9  1  26  3  3  .254  .292  .391  .683  23
Actual     HOU 211  64 15  0  7  31  35  2  17  0  37  3  3  .303  .355  .474  .829  35

The top prospect in the Astros farm system, he was expected to play center field regularly in 1998. He ended up splitting time with Carl Everett until going on the disabled list at the end of May with a separated shoulder. He returned toward the end of July and did well in a limited role (.337 and 5 HRs in 80 at-bats) the rest of the way.

Carl Everett, CF, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU  77  19  4  1  2  11  10  1   7  1  18  3  1  .247  .318  .403  .720  10
Prorated   HOU 470 116 24  6 12  67  61  6  43  6 110 18  6  .247  .318  .403  .720  62
Actual     HOU 467 138 34  4 15  72  76  3  44  2 102 14 12  .296  .359  .482  .840  77

A hot start got him more playing time than we'd anticipated. He took over the job for good after Hidalgo went down in May. Everett hit .338 before July 1st and only .258 after. That second figure was more in line with what we expected from Everett in 1998, whose career average was .245 (to go along with a .713 OPS) prior to last year.

Derek Bell, RF, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection HOU 613 168 36  3 13  80 110  9  44  7 107 30  4  .274  .327  .406  .734  83
Prorated   HOU 631 173 37  3 13  82 113  9  45  7 110 31  4  .274  .327  .406  .734  85
Actual     HOU 630 198 41  2 22 111 108  4  51  0 126 13  3  .314  .364  .490  .855 114

Yet another Astro hitter who had an outstanding season. He had hit for average before and he had hit for some power; he just had never done both in the same year before 1998.

Key Pitchers

Houston's pitching staff allowed 87 fewer runs than we expected in 1998, which is quite an accomplishment considering the loss of Darryl Kile to free-agency and Garcia and Holt to injuries, as well as the fact that Schourek did not have the comeback the Astros had hoped for. Both of the remaining starters, Reynolds and Hampton, pitched well and two converted middle relievers, Bergman and Lima, ended up giving Houston over 400 innings of quality pitching. Even Randy Johnson performed much better than anyone had a right to expect, going 10-1 after suffering through four mediocre months in Seattle.

Shane Reynolds, Starter, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection HOU  3.85  32 32  11 10  0  201 202 19  47 158  .264
Prorated   HOU  3.85  38 38  13 12  0  238 239 23  56 187  .264
Actual     HOU  3.51  35 35  19  8  0  233 257 25  53 209  .280

He was actually easier to hit than we'd thought, but was very tough with runners in scoring position, which resulted in a lower ERA. While he had the best won-lost record of his career in 1998, the rest of his statistics were not out of line with what he'd done before.

Mike Hampton, Starter, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection HOU  3.66  32 32  13 10  0  214 208 15  75 128  .259
Prorated   HOU  3.66  33 33  13 10  0  219 213 15  77 131  .259
Actual     HOU  3.36  32 32  11  7  0  212 227 18  81 137  .278

Unlike 1997, Hampton got off to fine start last season and by the end of May was 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA. He went on the DL in mid-June with a strained groin. He pitched well the last two months of the season but had only a 2-2 record (and 7 no decisions) to show for a 2.69 ERA. Hampton was another pitcher who performed well with men in scoring position, allowing him to yield fewer runs than expected despite allowing more baserunners.

Sean Bergman, Starter, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection HOU  5.23  34  4   3  4  0   72  85  7  26  53  .296
Prorated   HOU  5.23  78  9   7  9  0  165 194 16  59 121  .296
Actual     HOU  3.72  31 27  12  9  0  172 183 20  42 100  .268

Bergman was picked up in an off-season deal with the Padres. Originally slated for the bullpen, Bergman pitched his way into the starting rotation by the start of the season on the way to the best season of his career. He was 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA prior to the All-Star break, but only 4-5 with a 4.54 ERA after that.

Randy Johnson, Starter, age 34

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SEA  2.70  32 32  16  6  0  223 164 21  75 288  .205
Prorated   SEA  2.70  24 24  12  5  0  170 125 16  57 220  .205
Actual     SEA  4.33  23 23   9 10  0  160 146 19  60 213  .240
Actual     HOU  1.28  11 11  10  1  0   84  57  4  26 116  .191
Actual     TOT  3.28  34 34  19 11  0  244 203 23  86 329  .224

The Astros gave up infielder Carlos Guillen, perhaps the top prospect in their system, Freddy Garcia and one other player, to rent Randy Johnson for the last two months of the season. Houston was 65-44 at the time of the trade, and helped along by Johnson's 10-1 record with the team, went 37-16 the rest of the way. Considering how well he pitched in the Astrodome (5-0, 0.42 ERA with four shutouts and 62 strikeouts in 5 starts), he probably should have taken much less money to stay in Houston.

Jose Lima, Starter, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection HOU  4.71  30  0   2  2  0   42  47  5   9  32  .283
Prorated   HOU  4.71         11 11  0  222 248 26  48 169  .283
Actual     HOU  3.70  33 33  16  8  0  233 229 34  32 169  .256

Expected to help out in middle relief, Lima was forced into the starting rotation at the beginning of the season because of injuries to Garcia and Holt. Like a dozen other players on the Astros last year, Lima did much better than we thought he would and, considering that he had a career ERA of 5.92 entering 1998, you could have even argued that our expectations were too high.

Pete Schourek, Starter, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection HOU  3.93  27 27   8  7  0  140 129 18  50 109  .246
Prorated   HOU  3.93  16 16   5  4  0   83  77 11  30  65  .246
Actual     HOU  4.50  15 15   7  6  0   80  82 10  36  59  .269
Actual     BOS  4.30  10  8   1  3  0   44  45  7  14  36  .273

Schourek, attempting a comeback from elbow surgery, was signed to a minor league contract prior to the season. He wasn't ready to pitch until May 9th and was a mild disappointment before being replaced in the rotation by Randy Johnson and sold to the Red Sox on August 6th.

Ramon Garcia, Starter, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection HOU  4.31  32 32  10 10  0  194 193 26  66 136  .261

Garcia was expected to be in the starting rotation last season but missed the entire season with elbow problems. He had gone 9-8 with a 3.69 ERA for the Astros in 1997.

Chris Holt, Starter, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection HOU  3.95  32 32  12 10  0  214 219 16  63 116  .270

Holt was coming off shoulder surgery and the Astros hoped he could return and pitch effectively. Like Garcia, another of their scheduled starters last year, he was not able to pitch at all. He had gone 8-12 with a 3.52 ERA in 1997.

Billy Wagner, Closer, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection HOU  2.92  70  0   5  4 36   74  54  6  41  98  .205
Prorated   HOU  2.92  55  0   4  3 28   58  42  5  32  77  .205
Actual     HOU  2.70  58  0   4  3 30   60  46  6  25  97  .211

Wagner went on the DL when he was hit by a line drive on July 15th and missed three weeks. Both before and after the injury he pitched about as well as expected. He had the best walk to strikeout ratio of his career (6 walks to 37 strikeouts) after coming back.

Jay Powell, Middle Relief/Closer, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection FLO  3.42  70  0   4  3 31   74  69  3  31  57  .252
Prorated   FLO  3.42  37  0   2  2 16   39  36  2  16  30  .252
Actual     FLO  4.21  33  0   4  4  3   36  36  5  22  24  .263
Actual     HOU  2.38  29  0   3  3  4   34  22  1  15  38  .182
Actual     TOT  3.33  62  0   7  7  0   70  58  6  37  62  .225

Powell was picked up from the Marlins in an early July trade for catcher Ramon Castro. He was having an disappointing season while playing in the middle of a fire sale in Florida, but once he returned to the major leagues, he pitched some of the best ball of his career.

Scott Elarton. Middle Relief, age 22

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     HOU  3.32  28  2   2  1  2   57  40  5  20  56  .196

We didn't do a projection for him. He was one of the top pitching prospects in the Texas League last season and went 9-4 at AAA before being called up in mid-June. He got his chance, in the form of two starts, when Hampton when on the DL. When Hampton returned, GM Gerry Hunsicker was going to send him back to the minors but changed his mind and sent him to the bullpen instead. Elarton was very effective there but will probably return to the starting rotation in 1999.

Doug Henry, Middle Relief, age 34

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection HOU  4.04  70  0   4  3  2   71  72  6  34  63  .264 
Prorated   HOU  4.04  66  0   4  3  2   67  68  6  32  59  .264 
Actual     HOU  3.04  59  0   8  2  2   71  55  9  35  59  .216

Henry came to Houston as a free agent over the winter and had a very good season. Since his rookie year (when he allowed only 4 runs in 32 relief appearances), Henry's ERA had been over 4.00 in five of the six seasons before 1998. Last year, helped by his 2.27 ERA in the Astrodome, Henry returned to the form he last displayed for the 1995 Mets.

Outlook

The Astros' off-season moves so far have not been promising. They lost Randy Johnson as expected and essentially swapped a very good platoon arrangement at third for the full-time services of a Ken Caminiti in apparent decline. Still, it's hard to be too pessimistic about Houston's chances following their recent success. Alou and Everett will probably not repeat their fine 1998 campaigns, but a healthy Hidalgo has the potential to put up much better numbers. Their pitching staff shouldn't miss Johnson too much. The Astros were able to replace three of their starters last year and, with Elarton waiting in the wings, they should be able to recover from the loss of Johnson's 11 starts.

It's hard to imagine so many things going right for Houston again, and both their hitting and pitching will most likely be worse next year. Considering the weakness of their division, however, they could probably afford to lose an extra 15 games and still reach the post-season.