Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- Kansas City Royals By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the Kansas City Royals did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 752 714 Runs allowed 785 899 Run Margin -33 -185 Wins 76 72 Pythagorean wins 78 62 Placement 2nd 3rd The Royals had another bad off-season prior to last year. They lost their two best hitters, Jay Bell (their 1997 Player of the Year) and Chili Davis, to free agency; Kevin Appier, their best pitcher, had two operations and was lost for almost the entire year. They added Hal Morris, trying to come back after a poor injury-shortened season in Cincinnati, and Jeff Conine, who was traded after a bad year with the World Champion Marlins. While it might seem as if we came close (76 to 72 wins) in our prediction for the Royals last season, we were actually far too optimistic. Kansas City both hit and pitched far worse than we had anticipated. They had the biggest difference in baseball between their pythagorean wins (how they should have done considering the number of runs they scored and allowed) and their actual wins. This was due to a 17-16 record in one-run games and a 15-41 record in blowouts (games decided by 5 or more runs). Simply put, the Royals should have lost 100 games in 1998, and they could actually improve quite a bit next year and still finish with a poorer record. Key Position PlayersKansas City scored 38 fewer runs than we predicted in 1998. Palmer and Offerman had fine seasons, but these were offset by poor years from Jermaine Dye and Jeff Conine, a season ending injury in spring training to Rod Myers, as well as awful hitting from a variety of shortstops. Only Tampa Bay scored fewer runs than the Royals put up in 1998. Mike Sweeney, C, age 24 (as of 7/1/1998)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 496 117 25 0 15 63 71 10 44 1 73 3 5 .236 .307 .377 .684 56 Prorated KCA 276 65 14 0 8 35 40 6 25 1 41 2 3 .236 .307 .377 .684 31 Actual KCA 282 73 18 0 8 32 35 2 24 1 38 2 3 .259 .320 .408 .728 36 Expected to be the starting catcher for the Royals, Sweeney lost his job to Fasano by late June. His hitting picked up after that and he played quite a bit down the stretch. Sal Fasano, C, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 67 11 2 0 2 8 8 2 5 0 19 0 0 .164 .240 .284 .524 5 Prorated KCA 221 36 7 0 7 26 26 7 16 0 63 0 0 .164 .240 .284 .524 16 Actual KCA 216 49 10 0 8 21 31 16 10 1 56 1 0 .227 .307 .384 .692 27 Fasano was called up to the majors when Macfarland was traded at the beginning of the season. He went on the DL two weeks later with a muscle strain and didn't return until May 9th. A month later, he was hitting .139 (which was not much worse than we thought he would hit), but went on a 21-59 streak after that, which earned him the starting job until he strained his hamstring at the end of August. Jeff King, 1B/DH, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 532 128 30 2 24 77 102 2 76 4 93 13 3 .241 .332 .440 .772 82 Prorated KCA 463 111 26 2 21 67 89 2 66 3 81 11 3 .241 .332 .440 .772 71 Actual KCA 486 128 17 1 24 83 93 2 42 1 73 10 2 .263 .319 .451 .769 71 He had 16 home runs and 62 RBIs at the All-Star break, but slumped during the second half of the season. He went on the disabled list in August with lower back pain and hit only .204 after returning. Hal Morris, 1B/DH/LF, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 590 170 34 3 12 84 75 5 47 5 87 5 3 .288 .343 .417 .760 83 Prorated KCA 467 135 27 2 9 66 59 4 37 4 69 4 2 .288 .343 .417 .760 66 Actual KCA 472 146 27 2 1 50 40 1 32 6 52 1 0 .309 .350 .381 .731 61 After a hot start (he hit .427 in April), Morris went on the DL in early May with a strained hamstring. He had 15 extra-base hits at the time, but would hit only 15 more (all doubles) the rest of the way. He has never had good power, but after averaging 10 homers a year from 1990 to 1996, he has now hit a total of two home runs in his last two years. With that kind of power (and his low walk totals), Morris could win a batting title and still be a below average first baseman. Jose Offerman, 2B, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 610 176 33 8 3 85 49 0 74 3 107 14 14 .289 .365 .384 .749 87 Prorated KCA 625 180 34 8 3 87 50 0 76 3 110 14 14 .289 .365 .384 .749 89 Actual KCA 607 191 28 13 7 102 66 5 89 1 96 45 12 .315 .403 .438 .841 119 Offerman had by far the best year of his career in 1998, setting career highs in runs scored, hits, triples, home runs, RBIs, walks, stolen bases, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He was one of the few pleasant surprises for the Royals last year, until of course, he parlayed his fine season into a big contract with the Boston Red Sox. Felix Martinez, SS, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 517 111 18 5 2 54 37 7 40 0 116 22 15 .215 .280 .280 .560 39 Prorated KCA 86 18 3 1 0 9 6 1 7 0 19 4 2 .215 .280 .280 .560 6 Actual KCA 85 11 1 1 0 7 5 1 5 0 21 3 1 .129 .187 .165 .352 3 Martinez was expected to replace Bell at short in 1998 for the Royals, but his weak bat and bad temper got in the way. He kicked Otis Nixon in the face during an early April game, breaking the outfielder's jaw, and was sent to the minors after he sucker-punched Frank Bolick of the Angels during a brawl on June 2nd. The AL president gave him a 5-game suspension for that punch, but unless his hitting and fielding improve, Martinez may never get a chance to serve it. Shane Halter, SS, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 87 19 4 0 1 10 8 0 8 0 20 1 1 .218 .284 .299 .583 8 Prorated KCA 201 44 9 0 2 23 18 0 18 0 46 2 2 .218 .284 .299 .583 18 Actual KCA 204 45 12 0 2 17 13 1 12 0 38 2 5 .221 .265 .309 .574 16 He had a hot start but he had cooled off by the time he was sent down on July 21st. Halter was recalled on August 15th but played infrequently (and hit poorly) the rest of the way. Mendy Lopez, SS, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual KCA 206 50 10 2 1 18 15 1 12 0 40 5 2 .243 .286 .325 .612 19 We didn't do a projection for him. In 1997, he had hit a weak .231 splitting time between AA and AAA. He was doing even worse in the minors last year (.179 in 60 games), but got called up to the majors anyway when Martinez and Halter couldn't do the job. Not only did Kansas City have the worst hitting shortstops in the majors last year, but only Tampa Bay's catchers hit worse at ANY position. Dean Palmer, 3B/DH, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 556 141 28 1 26 77 88 4 48 3 143 2 0 .254 .315 .448 .763 79 Prorated KCA 579 147 29 1 27 80 92 4 50 3 149 2 0 .254 .315 .448 .763 82 Actual KCA 572 159 27 2 34 84 119 6 48 3 134 8 2 .278 .333 .510 .844 95 Palmer was named the Royals Player of the Year in 1998. Along with Offerman, he was one of the few bright spots for Kansas City on offense last season, and like Offerman, he would leave for greener pastures after it was over, going to Detroit for more money than the Royals could afford to pay him. Jeff Conine, LF/RF/1B, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 549 148 26 1 25 72 93 2 68 3 115 2 1 .270 .348 .457 .805 88 Prorated KCA 301 81 14 1 14 39 51 1 37 2 63 1 1 .270 .348 .457 .805 48 Actual KCA 309 79 26 0 8 30 43 2 26 1 68 3 0 .256 .312 .417 .729 41 Conine had a disappointing, injury-filled first season in Kansas City. He began the year on the disabled list with a strained abdominal muscle and didn't play until the beginning of May. Back spasms landed him on the DL again at the end of July and he didn't return until the third week in August. When he was able to play, he put up the worst numbers of his career. Shane Mack, LF/DH, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection OAK 548 169 26 0 13 53 71 13 37 4 100 8 4 .308 .361 .427 .788 85 Actual OAK 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0.000 0 Prorated KCA 209 64 10 0 5 20 27 5 14 2 38 3 2 .308 .361 .427 .788 32 Actual KCA 207 58 15 1 6 30 29 6 15 0 36 8 2 .280 .345 .449 .794 32 Actual TOT 209 58 15 1 6 31 29 6 15 0 36 8 2 .278 .342 .445 .787 32 When Conine wasn't ready to start the season, the Royals swapped Mike Macfarlane to the A's for Mack. After a .429 (24-56) start, he hit only .225 the rest of the way. He went on the disabled list at the beginning of August with a protruding disk in his neck and was done for the year. The Padres signed him to a minor league contract after the season. Johnny Damon, CF/RF/LF, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 629 173 22 8 10 86 63 4 52 5 92 26 10 .275 .332 .383 .716 84 Prorated KCA 639 176 22 8 10 87 64 4 53 5 93 26 10 .275 .332 .383 .716 86 Actual KCA 642 178 30 10 18 104 66 4 58 4 84 26 12 .277 .339 .439 .779 99 Damon improved slightly in 1998. He has now increased both his on-base and slugging percentages for two years in a row. He's got to continued that trend, however, if he's going to hit as well as an average major league outfielder. Jermaine Dye, RF, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 213 54 12 0 7 24 25 1 10 0 44 2 2 .254 .288 .408 .696 23 Prorated KCA 217 55 12 0 7 24 25 1 10 0 45 2 2 .254 .288 .408 .696 24 Actual KCA 214 50 5 1 5 24 23 1 11 2 46 2 2 .234 .270 .336 .606 18 He began the season on the DL with leg problems, hit well during an extended rehab in the minors and was recalled when Hal Morris was disabled in May. He was sent back down to the minors at the end of June and recalled on August 11th. Three weeks later, his right knee locked getting out of his car, and he needed season-ending surgery to repair the damage. In between the injuries and shuttling back and forth between the minor leagues, Dye had a dreadful season. He's still young, and he did hit well at AAA last year, but if his plate discipline and power don't dramatically improve in the next year or two, he'll have trouble making even a small-market team like Kansas City. Rod Myers, RF, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 421 106 28 0 8 55 42 5 46 2 109 25 8 .252 .331 .375 .707 56 Myers was expected to challenge Dye for the right-field job in 1998 before injuring his right shoulder in spring training and starting the season on the DL. By June, he was on a rehab assignment at AAA, but hit only .218 there with no home runs and was not recalled. Larry Sutton, RF/LF, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 66 16 3 0 2 8 9 0 8 0 11 0 0 .242 .320 .379 .699 8 Prorated KCA 309 75 14 0 9 37 42 0 37 0 51 0 0 .242 .320 .379 .699 40 Actual KCA 310 76 14 2 5 29 42 3 29 3 46 3 3 .245 .311 .352 .663 35 A fine defensive first baseman in the minors, Sutton went to winter ball to learn to play the outfield after the Royals signed Jeff King for another two years. The injury to Rod Myers as well as the poor play of Dye gave him an opportunity to play. It's almost certainly a coincidence given his weak bat, but through the first half of 1998, the Royals were 19-9 with him in the lineup and only 16-35 when he was on the bench. Terry Pendleton, DH/3B, age 37AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KCA 69 17 4 0 1 7 10 0 6 1 12 0 0 .246 .307 .348 .654 7 Prorated KCA 234 58 14 0 3 24 34 0 20 3 41 0 0 .246 .307 .348 .654 24 Actual KCA 237 61 10 0 3 17 29 0 15 1 49 1 0 .257 .299 .338 .637 25 Pendleton was signed to a minor league contract prior to the season, and except for a month he missed due to a strained rib cage, managed to stay on the team the entire season. He both played more and hit less than we expected. Key PitchersThe Royals' pitching staff was a lot (114 runs) worse than we'd anticipated. What happened? Staff ace Kevin Appier missed almost the entire season. And the few pitchers who did better than expected (like Belcher, Rapp and Service) were overwhelmed by a legion of those who did much worse. Chris Haney, Jose Rosado, Glendon Rusch, Hipolito Pichardo, Jeff Montgomery and Jeff Pittsley all had very disappointing seasons. Tim Belcher, Starter, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection KCA 5.14 32 32 10 13 0 205 234 27 68 115 .289 Prorated KCA 5.14 36 36 11 15 0 229 262 30 76 129 .289 Actual KCA 4.27 34 34 14 14 0 234 247 37 73 130 .272 Belcher was the best starter on the Royals' staff last season. He won't be back, having signed as a free agent with the Anaheim Angels. He had a much better record on the road (10-5, 3.32 ERA) than at home (4-9, 5.51 ERA), but then so did most of the Royals' pitchers. The team actually had a winning record on the road (43-38), but played horribly in front of their own fans (29-51). Chris Haney, Starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection KCA 4.61 32 32 7 8 0 180 202 20 43 101 .285 Prorated KCA 4.61 19 19 4 5 0 105 118 12 25 59 .285 Actual KCA 7.03 33 12 6 6 0 97 125 18 36 51 .316 Actual CHN 7.20 5 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 1 4 .167 Limited to eight games in 1997, the Royals were hoping Haney would bounce back last season. He didn't. After pitching poorly all season, he was finally sold to the Cubs in the middle of September. Pat Rapp, Starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection KCA 6.20 4 4 1 1 0 20 26 3 11 12 .317 Prorated KCA 6.20 36 36 9 9 0 181 232 27 98 107 .317 Actual KCA 5.30 32 32 12 13 0 188 208 24 107 132 .285 Rapp had a poor second-half of the 1997 season and we assumed he would continue his decline after signing a minor league contract with the Royals in the off-season. He certainly didn't pitch well last year, but he did manage to stay in the rotation all season and put up better numbers than Haney and Rusch. Jose Rosado, Starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection KCA 3.69 32 32 12 8 0 198 186 21 69 141 .249 Prorated KCA 3.69 29 29 11 7 0 180 169 19 63 128 .249 Actual KCA 4.69 38 25 8 11 1 175 180 25 57 135 .260 He pitched about as anticipated through the end of July, when he was 6-8 with a 3.87 ERA. Rosado struggled the rest of the way, posting a 6.23 ERA over the last two months. Glendon Rusch, Starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection KCA 5.06 32 32 10 13 0 205 233 27 65 149 .287 Prorated KCA 5.06 25 25 8 10 0 157 178 21 50 114 .287 Actual KCA 5.88 29 24 6 15 1 155 191 22 50 94 .304 Rusch was another pitcher who faded in the second half of the season. He was 4-8 with a 4.86 ERA in mid-June. Over his final ten starts, he would go 2-7 with a 8.71 ERA. Rusch went on the DL during the second week in August with rotator tendinitis and pitched well out of the bullpen (in limited duty) when he returned. Hipolito Pichardo, Starter/Middle Relief, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection KCA 4.04 44 4 2 5 0 65 68 6 24 48 .273 Prorated KCA 4.04 80 7 4 9 0 118 124 11 44 87 .273 Actual KCA 5.13 27 18 7 8 1 112 126 11 43 55 .280 After pitching out of the bullpen for four years, Pichardo was moved into the starting rotation at the beginning of the season. He pitched well until going on the DL in early May with a cracked callous on his thumb. The Royals sent him to the bullpen for a couple of weeks after he returned and he was horrible, allowing 14 earned runs, 20 hits and five walks in only 9 2/3 innings. Most teams might have sent a pitcher doing this poorly to the minor leagues, but given the sad state of the Kansas City pitching staff, they put Pichardo back into the starting rotation instead. He didn't really do that badly either, going 5-3 with a 4.70 ERA, until an elbow injury ended his season in late August. Jeff Montgomery, Closer, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection KCA 4.04 70 0 4 5 26 76 72 13 23 65 .252 Prorated KCA 4.04 55 0 3 4 20 59 56 10 18 51 .252 Actual KCA 4.98 56 0 2 5 36 56 58 8 22 54 .264 Montgomery, one of the AL's best relievers in the early 1990s, had a terrible start in 1998. By mid-June, he had a 8.10 ERA in 23 games. He finished strong, saving 25 of 27 games and posting a 2.76 ERA. This has been a trend of Montgomery's for the past several years. Since 1994, his ERA has been over 5.00 in April, May and June, and under 3.00 after that. Jim Pittsley, Middle Relief, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection KCA 4.70 27 27 7 7 0 142 155 20 81 88 .284 Prorated KCA 4.70 13 13 3 3 0 70 77 10 40 43 .284 Actual KCA 6.59 39 2 1 1 0 68 88 13 37 44 .322 Pittsley was a starter in 1997 and we had envisioned a similar role for him in 1998. He was relegated to the bullpen instead and pitched very poorly. His one memorable moment last year came when he hit Phil Nevin of the Angels with a pitch, igniting a spectacular brawl that resulted in a dozen suspensions. Scott Service. Middle Relief, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection KCA 5.09 30 0 2 2 0 41 45 6 15 48 .281 Prorated KCA 5.09 59 0 4 4 0 80 88 12 29 94 .281 Actual KCA 3.48 73 0 6 4 4 83 70 7 34 95 .231 Arguably the Royals best pitcher in 1998, Service had played for four teams the previous year, including Omaha and Indianapolis. He was the Royals' Pitcher of the Month in both April and June, and managed to avoid getting sent to the minors for the first time in his career. OutlookOnce again, the Royals lost the heart of their offense to free agency following the season. Dean Palmer and Jose Offerman, their two best hitters in 1998, will be playing elsewhere next year. Tim Belcher, their best pitcher, is also gone. There are some excellent prospects who will be ready to contribute before too long, including infielder Carlos Febles, outfielders Carlos Beltran and Jeremy Giambi, and pitcher Orber Moreno. But no team can continue to lose its top players each year and expect to remain competitive even with a good farm system. That system could be even better if the front office had been able to deal players like Bell, Davis, Palmer, Offerman and Belcher for prospects before losing them as free agents. The Royals in 1999 will attempt to patch together a team using fading stars hoping for a comeback, marginal players passed over by the big market teams, and younger ones ineligible for arbitration or free agency. The ones who pan out will eventually move on to bigger cities. I said earlier that Kansas City would have to improve significantly simply to match last year's record. That may not be a realistic hope in 1999.
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