1998 Post-Season Review -- Milwaukee Brewers

By Tom Tippett
January 28, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Milwaukee Brewers did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            757      707
Runs allowed        804      812
Run Margin          -46     -105
Wins                 81       74
Pythagorean wins     76       70
Placement           5th      5th

As you know, the Brewers moved from the AL Central to the NL Central prior to the 1998 season. That move created a lot of speculation about where this team might finish in its new division. With no history to go by, it seemed that just about anything was possible. Among 15 publications that predicted 1998 standings before the season started, the range was 2nd place to the basement. I heard others talk of a possible division title.

When the Brewers started strong (16-8 in April) and were a game over .500 at the all-star break, it seemed as if a wildcard spot was a possibility. But the team went 19-34 in the last two months and wound up with 74 wins and fifth place. During the swoon, Phil Garner's job was rumored to be in jeopardy. Should it have been? While it's true that the season was a minor disappointment, mainly because the offense fell 47 runs short of our projections, I think a firing would have more to do with unrealistic expectations on the part of management than any deficiency in the manager.

This team wasn't all that good to begin with. In our five-season computer simulation, the club averaged 81 wins, fifth best in the division. That represents an optimistic view, however, as they were outscored by an average of 46 runs in those five seasons, suggesting that 76 wins was a more likely outcome. In other words, a run for the division title, or even a wildcard, was a long shot in 1998.

Key Position Players

Milwaukee scored 47 fewer runs than projected despite big seasons from Fernando Vina and Mark Loretta and a strong (but expected) campaign from Jeff Cirillo. Jeremy Burnitz fell a little short of expectations, but still had a very good year. The biggest disappointment was John Jaha, who was projected for 30 homers but wound up with 7 after missing more than half the season to injury and hitting poorly when he did play. To make matters worse, Marquis Grissom continued his steady decline, while Dave Nilsson, Bob Hamelin, and Jose Valentin also had subpar campaigns.

Jesse Levis, C, age 30 (as of July 1, 1998)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 345  91 12  1  1  33  30  3  45  0  27  1  1  .264  .352  .313  .665  40
Prorated   MIL  41  11  1  0  0   4   4  0   5  0   3  0  0  .264  .352  .313  .665   5
Actual     MIL  37  13  0  0  0   4   4  2   7  2   6  1  0  .351  .468  .351  .819   6

Back in mid-March, we figured Levis and Matheny would platoon at catcher, with Levis getting more playing time as the lefty hitter of the pair. But Levis went on the DL with a shoulder problem in early May and never came back.

Mike Matheny, C, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 200  47 10  1  3  17  23  4  10  0  46  1  1  .235  .282  .340  .622  19
Prorated   MIL 309  73 15  2  5  26  35  6  15  0  71  2  2  .235  .282  .340  .622  29
Actual     MIL 320  76 13  0  6  24  27  7  11  0  63  1  0  .238  .278  .334  .612  29

Matheny performed exactly as expected, but gained some playing time as a result of the injury to Levis. There are no signs in his major-league record that suggest he'll ever hit much better than this. The Brewers have announced plans to move Dave Nilsson back behind the plate next season, so Matheny stands to lose a lot of his playing time if Nilsson can make the transition and stay healthy.

Bobby Hughes, C, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL  69  15  4  0  2   8  10  1   5  0  17  0  0  .217  .280  .362  .642   7
Prorated   MIL 215  47 12  0  6  25  31  3  16  0  53  0  0  .217  .280  .362  .642  22
Actual     MIL 217  50  7  2  9  28  29  1  16  1  53  1  2  .230  .285  .406  .691  25

Hughes hit quite well in AA in 1996 (.304 with a .578 SPC) and in AAA in 1997 (.310 with a .497 SPC), but after adjusting those stats for park effects and the jump to major league competition, it wasn't enough to justify high hopes for his ability to hit in the big leagues. He wasn't projected to hit for much of an average or take many walks, and he didn't. He did contribute a few extra homers, however, and that was enough to make this a bit of a positive surprise.

John Jaha, 1B, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 524 145 26  2 30  90  98  7  71  2 124  2  1  .277  .368  .506  .874  98
Prorated   MIL 236  65 12  1 14  41  44  3  32  1  56  1  0  .277  .368  .506  .874  44
Actual     MIL 216  45  6  1  7  29  38  6  49  3  66  1  3  .208  .366  .343  .709  30

Jaha had a very rough year. In the spring, he struggled to get back in form after June/97 shoulder surgery. He missed six weeks in May and June with ligament damage in his foot, and was arrested for drunk driving while on the DL. In July he lost 25 pounds to a nasty flu-like illness. He strained a hamstring in August. And in September the club turned down his request to have surgery on his foot and (Jaha claims) called him a quitter. When he did play, he was a shell of his former self. It appears his future lies in another organization, as he's currently a free agent and says he'll never play for the Brewers again. Peter Gammons reported on January 24th that Jaha had recently failed a Boston physical, so it's far from clear when and where he will resurface.

Dave Nilsson, 1B/LF, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 397 117 25  2 13  56  62  2  44  5  64  2  2  .295  .364  .466  .830  69
Prorated   MIL 307  90 19  2 10  43  48  2  34  4  49  2  2  .295  .364  .466  .830  54
Actual     MIL 309  83 14  1 12  39  56  1  33  1  48  2  2  .269  .339  .437  .776  44

Began the season on the DL after knee surgery and never really got it going. Filled in for Jaha while he was hurt, then moved to LF on his return. Started his career as a catcher and is expected to return to that position for 1999, if his body can handle it.

Bob Hamelin, PH/1B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL  64  15  3  0  3   8  10  0  11  1  16  0  0  .234  .347  .422  .769  10
Prorated   MIL 143  33  7  0  7  18  22  0  24  2  36  0  0  .234  .347  .422  .769  22
Actual     MIL 146  32  6  0  7  15  22  1  16  1  30  0  1  .219  .295  .404  .699  16

The high point of Hamelin's career came in his rookie season, when he batted .282 with 56 walks and 24 homers in 312 ABs for KC in 1994. He played himself back to the minors in 1995 and has never come close to matching his debut season since. In 1998, he had a bit of a down year, partly because almost half his atbats came as a pinch hitter, and studies (by Pete Palmer and Bill James) have shown that players typically hit quite a bit worse as PHs than when when they're in the starting lineup.

Fernando Vina, 2B, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 598 164 20  9  6  82  47 16  31  2  46 15 10  .274  .325  .368  .693  71
Prorated   MIL 659 181 22 10  7  90  52 18  34  2  51 17 11  .274  .325  .368  .693  78
Actual     MIL 637 198 39  7  7 101  45 25  54  2  46 22 16  .311  .386  .427  .813 108

A terrific season. Vina surged past his previous highs in batting average, doubles, walks, times hit by pitch, and stolen bases, and matched his career best in homers. It's been widely reported that the Brewers hope to trade Vina for a top starting pitcher, which makes me wonder whether the Brewers regard this as a fluke and want to trade him before he comes back to earth, or just that they have a surplus of 2B candidates (Loretta, Ron Belliard, Lou Collier) and wish to deal from strength to fill holes elsewhere.

Jeff Cirillo, 3B, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 567 170 44  4 11  81  76 12  56  0  75  4  4  .300  .372  .450  .822  96
Prorated   MIL 612 183 47  4 12  87  82 13  60  0  81  4  4  .300  .372  .450  .822 103
Actual     MIL 604 194 31  1 14  97  68  4  79  3  88 10  4  .321  .402  .445  .847 106

Cirillo's not a superstar, but he's a very good player and the kind I like to root for because he contributes in a lot of ways. He's a very good fielder, he gets on base a lot (career high .402 OBP in 1998), he bunts well, and he even threw in a few SB last year for good measure (though historically his percentage is weak). The weaknesses: power that was a little below the league average and a league-leading 26 GDP. Overall, he was projected to create 103 runs and he created 106, so the club got their money's worth this year.

Jose Valentin, SS, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 566 142 30  4 20  76  75  3  51  6 140 21  7  .251  .314  .424  .738  79
Prorated   MIL 446 112 24  3 16  60  59  2  40  5 110 17  6  .251  .314  .424  .738  62
Actual     MIL 428  96 24  0 16  65  49  1  63  8 105 10  7  .224  .323  .393  .716  58

Valentin has good pop in his bat for a SS, and walks quite a bit, but unless and until he can improve on a career batting average of .241, he'll remain in the middle of the pack offensively among major-league shortstops.

Mark Loretta, IF, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 106  30  4  1  1  14  13  1  10  0  14  1  1  .283  .345  .368  .712  14
Prorated   MIL 434 123 16  4  4  57  53  4  41  0  57  4  4  .283  .345  .368  .712  55
Actual     MIL 434 137 29  0  6  55  54  7  42  1  47  9  6  .316  .382  .424  .806  69

Loretta has become Phil Garner's supersub, able to fill in effectively anywhere in the infield, and has more than justified his manager's faith in him by improving for the third straight year. He gained a lot of playing time as a result of the injury to Jaha and Valentin's poor season, and could inherit the 2B job in 1999 if there's anything to the many trade rumors involving Fernando Vina.

Darrin Jackson, LF/CF, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL  95  23  3  1  1  11  14  0   3  0  15  2  0  .242  .263  .326  .589   8
Prorated   MIL 201  49  6  2  2  23  30  0   6  0  32  4  0  .242  .263  .326  .589  17
Actual     MIL 204  49 13  1  4  20  20  1   9  0  37  1  1  .240  .276  .373  .648  20

Jackson has bounced around quite a bit in recent years, having played in Japan and with six major league teams since 1992. His numbers in 1998 were a little below his career averages but quite consistent for someone who's a few years past his prime. Currently a free agent.

Geoff Jenkins, LF, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     MIL 262  60 12  1  9  33  28  2  20  4  61  1  3  .229  .288  .385  .673  27

We didn't expect him to make the club this past year, as he'd batted .236 (at AAA Tuscon in 1997) in his only season above AA. But some big numbers at AAA Louisville in 1998 earned him three stints on the big-league roster. It doesn't appear as if he was ready despite a quick start that saw him belt 6 homers in 92 April/May atbats. He hit only 3 more in 170 atbats the rest of the way. Looks like he'll battle Alex Ochoa (acquired from the Twins) for an outfield spot next year.

Marc Newfield, LF, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 156  41  9  0  5  18  21  2  11  0  27  0  0  .263  .316  .417  .732  20
Prorated   MIL 191  50 11  0  6  22  26  2  13  0  33  0  0  .263  .316  .417  .732  24
Actual     MIL 186  44  7  0  3  15  25  1  19  1  29  0  1  .237  .306  .323  .629  18

Has yet to bounce back from 1997 rotator cuff surgery, but it's not clear what his best would have been anyway. Many years ago, he put up some great numbers in the hitter's paradise of the PCL, but his top major-league performance has been .278 with 12 homers in 370 atbats with the Padres and Brewers in 1996. Still, he'll only be 26 on opening day, and if his body is 100%, he could still have a few good seasons. Became a free agent after the season and recently signed with the Athletics.

Marquis Grissom, CF, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 607 169 30  8 13  84  63  6  45  3  82 25 12  .278  .331  .418  .749  84
Prorated   MIL 519 144 26  7 11  72  54  5  38  3  70 21 10  .278  .331  .418  .749  72
Actual     MIL 542 147 28  1 10  57  60  2  24  2  78 13  8  .271  .304  .382  .685  59

Once considered one of the top overall CFs in the game because of a mix of great speed, terrific defense, and good offensive skills, Grissom has been declining slowly for several years now. He's no longer an asset at the top of the batting order because his batting average doesn't make up for the fact that he rarely walks. He doesn't have enough power to be a plus in the middle of the order. His stolen bases have declined in each of the past six years (from 78 to 53, 36, 29, 28, 22, and 13) and his SB percentage in each of his last five. His defense is good but not great. Among CFs with 500+ plate appearances in 1998, Grissom's OPS was second worst.

Jeromy Burnitz, RF, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MIL 574 156 39  8 27  98 100  8  80  9 129 20 11  .272  .368  .509  .877 109
Prorated   MIL 596 162 41  8 28 102 104  8  83  9 134 21 11  .272  .368  .509  .877 114
Actual     MIL 609 160 28  1 38  92 125  4  70  7 158  7  4  .263  .339  .499  .838 105

Despite the 38 homers, Burnitz was a little below expectations this year. He came up short by a few batting average points, a few walks, and a bunch of doubles and triples. Still, he created 105 runs, and that's quite good. Garner didn't give Burnitz the green light to steal nearly as much this year, a smart move considering that he'd been successful only 57% of the time through 1997.

Key Pitchers

The Brewers staff was right about where they were projected to be in runs allowed, but the staff they ended the season with bore little resemblance to the opening day crew. Two members of the rotation, Jeff Juden (traded to Anaheim) and Jose Mercedes (injured after only five starts), and their closer, Doug Jones (traded to Cleveland), were no longer pitching for Milwaukee in September. During the season, they traded for Bill Pulsipher, Eric Plunk and David Weathers. And several others (Brad Woodall, Rafael Roque and Bronswell Patrick) came up from the minors.

With the exception of Steve Woodard, every member of the opening day rotation fell short of expectations. And Pulsipher's 4.66 ERA was lowest among the others who started, so the end of season rotation was no great shakes, either. The Brewers composite ERA for its starters was 5.01, third worst in the league.

On the other hand, their relief ERA was 3.94, two points below the league average, and 9th in the NL. Most of the credit goes to Chad Fox, Mike Myers, and Bob Wickman (for the first three months).

Cal Eldred, Starter, age 30 (as of July 1, 1998)

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  4.64  32 32  10 12  0  188 191 25  82 128  .264
Prorated   MIL  4.64  23 23   7  9  0  136 138 18  59  93  .264
Actual     MIL  4.80  23 23   4  8  0  133 157 14  61  86  .297

Eldred became the "ace" of the staff after he went 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA as a 23-year-old in 1992, but he's never come close to this level again. In 1993, he won 16 games and logged 258 innings (too many?), but gave up a lot more walks and homers en route to a 4.01 ERA. Since then, he's been injured a lot (only one season with 30+ starts) and only slightly better than the league average overall. Last year was more of the same, as he had a mediocre-to-poor season (218 baserunners in 133 innings) and went down for the season on July 27th with a stress fracture of the forearm.

Scott Karl, Starter, age 26

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  4.35  32 32  10 11  0  195 201 19  60 127  .268
Prorated   MIL  4.35  32 32  10 11  0  197 204 19  61 129  .268
Actual     MIL  4.40  33 33  10 11  0  192 219 21  66 102  .290

Although you'd never know it from his ERA, Karl's season came in about 10% worse than his projection across the board. In his four big-league seasons, he has averaged about 20 more hits allowed than innings pitched, and his other stats are nothing special. The result is a pitcher who's been consistently around the league average. His 1998 numbers should have been helped by getting out of a DH league, but they got worse instead.

Jeff Juden, Starter, age 27

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  4.27  32 32  11 10  0  192 182 25  90 152  .253
Prorated   MIL  4.27  24 24   8  8  0  145 138 19  68 115  .253
Actual     MIL  5.53  24 24   7 11  0  138 149 20  66 109  .277
Actual     ANA  6.75   8  6   1  3  0   40  33  7  18  39  .217
Actual     TOT  5.80  32 30   8 14  0  178 182 27  84 148  .264

Juden gives up too many hits, too many walks, too many homers, and is the easiest to run on (53 SB in 59 tries in 1998, 56 in 62 the year before) in the majors. The Brewers gave up on Juden in August.

Jose Mercedes, Starter, age 27

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  4.51  32 32  10 12  0  194 196 29  64 104  .264
Prorated   MIL  4.51   6  6   2  2  0   34  34  5  11  18  .264
Actual     MIL  6.75   7  5   2  2  0   32  42  5   9  11  .316

Mercedes pitched pretty well out of the gate, then jammed his shoulder running the bases. After that, he had one more good outing then was hammered in his last two starts (20 hits and 17 runs in 9.2 innings) before going on the DL for the rest of the year.

Steve Woodard, Starter, age 23

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  4.03  27 27   9  9  0  143 141 13  30 115  .258
Prorated   MIL  4.03  31 31  10 10  0  167 164 15  35 134  .258
Actual     MIL  4.18  34 26  10 12  0  166 170 19  33 135  .264

Prior to 1998, Woodard had pitched only 44 innings above AA ball, so his projection was based primarily on his performance in the low minors. He made the jump to the top level in fine fashion.

Brad Woodall, Starter, age 29

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Actual     MIL  4.96  31 20   7  9  0  138 145 25  47  85  .273

After a 1994 season in which he went 15-6 with a 2.42 ERA in AAA Richmond, he was regarded as the next star pitcher for the Braves rotation. But he didn't pitch well in three brief trials with Atlanta and found himself stuck in AAA behind the majors best starting staff before moving to the Milwaukee organization in the 1997-8 off-season. We didn't expect him to play a major role in 1998, coming off a 5.51 ERA at AAA the year before, but he got a chance after Mercedes was hurt.

Bill Pulsipher, Starter, age 24

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection NYN  4.34   3  3   1  1  0   19  18  1  12  13  .257
Prorated   NYN  4.34   2  2   1  1  0   15  15  1  10  11  .257
Actual     NYN  6.91  15  1   0  0  0   14  23  2   5  13  .371
Actual     MIL  4.66  11 10   3  4  0   58  63  6  26  38  .289
Actual     TOT  5.10  26 11   3  4  0   72  86  8  31  51  .307

Pulsipher didn't pitch at all in 1996 due to injury, then worked his way back slowly in 1997. It didn't appear that he was ready to make much of an impact in 1998, and he spent the first half of the year in the minors before being called up, pitching poorly for five weeks, and then being traded to the Brewers. Will we ever again see the pitcher who tore through the minors, never posting an ERA higher than 3.22, before making his major-league debut at age 21? I hope so. It would be a shame to lose such a promising career to injury.

Rafael Roque, Starter, age 26

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Actual     MIL  4.88   9  9   4  2  0   48  42  9  24  34  .237

Roque's minor-league career was undistinguished. He didn't reach AAA until he was 26 years old and was ok but not outstanding at that level. In both 1996 and 1997, he pitched well in A ball but failed at the AA level (ERA above 6.50 both times). There was no indication that he was ready for the big leagues in 1998, but he pitched pretty well anyway. It's hard to say what his chances are in the future.

Paul Wagner, Swing man, age 30

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  5.71  27  4   2  3  0   52  63  8  28  44  .303
Prorated   MIL  5.71  29  4   2  3  0   56  68  9  30  47  .303
Actual     MIL  7.11  13  9   1  5  0   56  67 10  31  37  .302

Wasn't expected to pitch very well, and didn't. The Brewers released him in early August and the Braves signed him to a minor-league deal the next day.

Bronswell Patrick, Swing man, age 27

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Actual     MIL  4.69  32  3   4  1  0   79  83  9  29  49  .279

With hindsight, he looks like a guy we should have included in our projections last spring. Although he wasn't being talked about very much, he was coming off a couple of pretty good AAA seasons and could be expected to get a shot at some point during the year. He was called up when Chad Fox went on the DL in mid-May, and he pitched pretty well. But the Brewers apparently don't think his future is too bright, as they let him go after the season. In December, he signed a minor-league contract with the Giants.

Chad Fox, Middle reliever, age 27

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  5.51  53  0   2  3  0   51  58  6  34  50  .291
Prorated   MIL  5.51  54  0   2  3  0   51  59  6  34  51  .291
Actual     MIL  3.95  49  0   1  4  0   57  56  4  20  64  .260

A product of the Braves organization, Fox needed until age 25 to reach AAA as a starter. He wasn't great at that level in 1996 (4.73 ERA), so he was moved to the bullpen in 1997, and was more effective (3.70 ERA at AAA, 3.29 ERA in 27 innings with Atlanta). His projection wasn't good mainly because he walked 30 in 51 innings as a reliever. But his control, and everything else, was much better in 1998, and he proved to be a valuable member of the Brewers relief corps.

Mike Myers, Middle reliever, age 29

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  5.03  30  0   1  1  0   20  22  3   9  20  .282
Prorated   MIL  5.03  70  0   2  2  0   46  52  7  21  47  .282
Actual     MIL  2.70  70  0   2  2  1   50  44  5  22  40  .249

OK, where did this come from? Although Myers led the AL in appearances in both 1996 and 1997, he came into 1998 with a most undistinguished record. His career ERA was 5.47, and he'd always allowed more than one hit per inning, walked a man about once every two innings, and yielded homers at a pretty good clip. The only real indication of potential was a strikeout rate of just under nine per game.

Eric Plunk, Middle reliever, age 34

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection CLE  3.86  53  0   4  3  0   75  63  9  33  79  .228
Prorated   CLE  3.86  30  0   2  2  0   42  35  5  18  44  .228
Actual     CLE  4.83  37  0   3  1  0   41  44  6  15  38  .282
Actual     MIL  3.69  26  0   1  2  1   32  33  3  15  36  .270
Actual     TOT  4.33  63  0   4  3  1   73  77  9  30  74  .277

Perhaps age is starting to catch up to him. A mainstay in the Indians pen since 1992, Plunk was coming off his first poor season (4.66 ERA in 1997). When he was unable to return to his former level, the Indians moved him to Milwaukee for Doug Jones. Plunk was slightly more effective after the trade than before, but hasn't shown any signs of becoming a dominant setup man again.

Al Reyes, Middle reliever, age 27

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  5.01  30  0   2  3  0   50  48  9  25  55  .253
Prorated   MIL  5.01  34  0   2  3  0   57  54 10  28  62  .253
Actual     MIL  3.95  50  0   5  1  0   57  55  9  31  58  .255

Earlier in his career, he was very effective in the low minors, but his only success above AA ball was a strong 33 innings with the Brewers in 1995. He went under the knife after that season and struggled in 1996 and 1997. His 1998 performance was right in line with what he's done since his arm troubles, even though fortune graced him with a misleadingly low ERA. Someone who allows 86 baserunners and 9 homers in 57 innings normally has an ERA around 5.00.

David Weathers, Middle reliever, age 28

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection CIN  5.79   4  4   1  1  0   19  25  2   8  14  .325
Prorated   CIN  5.79  13 13   3  3  0   62  84  7  27  47  .325
Actual     CIN  6.21  16  9   2  4  0   62  86  3  27  51  .330
Actual     MIL  3.21  28  0   4  1  0   48  44  3  14  43  .246
Actual     TOT  4.91  44  9   6  5  0  110 130  6  41  94  .295

As a starter in Cincinnati, Weathers was hit pretty hard but managed to keep the ball in the park more often than in the past. Milwaukee claimed him off waivers and put him in the bullpen, where he was much more effective. Will he become a solid reliever for the future? Maybe, but keep in mind that he's been tried out of the pen several times before and this is the first time it worked. His relief era is 5.11 over the past five years.

Doug Jones, Closer, age 41

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  3.42  70  0   4  5 30   76  74  5  14  76  .254
Prorated   MIL  3.42  53  0   3  4 23   58  56  4  11  58  .254
Actual     MIL  5.17  46  0   3  4 12   54  65 15  11  43  .298
Actual     CLE  3.45  23  0   1  2  1   31  34  2   6  28  .281
Actual     TOT  4.54  69  0   4  6 13   85  99 17  17  71  .292

It's no surprise that Milwaukee was willing to deal Jones when Cleveland came calling. Since 1991, Jones had had three terrific seasons (1992, 1994, and 1997) and four others in which his ERAs were in the fours and fives. The surprise, I suppose, is that Cleveland was interested in a 41-year-old pitcher with an inconsistent past. Jones pitched pretty well for the Indians, but was unable to return to the form he showed in 1997.

Bob Wickman, Closer, age 29

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR   W   K   AVG
Projection MIL  3.66  70  0   5  4  4   98  97  7  38  84  .262
Prorated   MIL  3.66  60  0   4  3  3   84  82  6  32  71  .262
Actual     MIL  3.72  72  0   6  9 25   82  79  5  39  71  .262

Wickman got off to a fast start. I know this all too well, because I had him on my fantasy team at the beginning of the year, and I dumped him very early because I didn't believe he could keep it up. That was a mistake in fantasy terms, as the 25 saves would have come in handy, but turned out to be an accurate assessment of his full-season performance. His ERA was 1.80 before the break and 6.68 after. Amazingly, these two disparate half-seasons combined to produce a full season that was right in line with expectations.

Outlook

Looking ahead, there's reason for a little optimism in 1999.

Have they improved their talent in the off-season? A little, maybe. Yesterday, they signed Jim Abbott, whose last good season was in 1995, and penciled him into the starting rotation. Earlier, they picked up free agent Sean Berry, who appears to be healthy again and could contribute some of the offense that John Jaha once produced at first base. They traded for Alex Ochoa, though he's expected to play only a minor role, as they seem intent on going with Geoff Jenkins in LF. And their only subtractions have been Jaha, Jackson, and Hamelin, none of whom produced much in 1998.

Do they have established players who are likely to bounce back from off-years? Yes, several, both on offense and in the starting rotation. Nilsson, Valentin, Eldred, Karl, and Mercedes could all be better. Pulsipher could regain his pre-injury form.

If some of these things happen, and Nilsson successfully returns to the catcher position (enabling the club to get another bat into the lineup at 1B or LF), and some of the relievers with unusually good 1998 seasons don't revert to form, the club might improve enough to be a legitimate .500 team. But they were outscored by 105 runs last year, so .500 is a pretty big step from where they are, especially for a club that hasn't added any top free agents.