Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- Minnesota Twins By Tom Tippett This article takes a look at how the Minnesota Twins did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 754 734 Runs allowed 866 818 Run Margin -112 -84 Wins 71 71 Pythagorean wins 70 72 Placement 5th 4th Relative to pre-season expectations, the Twins pitched a little better and hit a little worse, finishing with exactly the predicted number of wins. It was good for fourth place in baseball's worst division. Unfortunately, this may be the high-water mark for a while, as the club has announced a massive, Marlins-style, payroll dump for 1999. Key Position PlayersThere's not a lot to talk about in terms of surprises. Minnesota was projected to score 754 runs and they scored 734. Todd Walker, Otis Nixon, and Matt Lawton produced more than expected, but a bunch of others had off years. The team simply lacks superstar-caliber players, as Terry Steinbach and Todd Walker are the only Twins who finished in the top half of the offensive rankings for their position. Terry Steinbach, C, age 36 (as of July 1, 1998)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 598 151 34 1 26 79 89 4 48 4 136 2 3 .253 .310 .443 .754 78 Prorated MIN 425 107 24 1 18 56 63 3 34 3 97 1 2 .253 .310 .443 .754 55 Actual MIN 422 102 25 2 14 45 54 4 38 0 89 0 1 .242 .310 .410 .720 50 Steinbach was once one of the best hitting catchers in the league, and even though age has caught up to him, he's still in the top half of major-league catchers offensively. Recently signed a one-year contract to stay with the Twins in 1999. Javier Valentin, C, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 71 16 3 0 2 7 8 0 3 0 12 0 1 .225 .253 .352 .605 6 Prorated MIN 168 38 7 0 5 17 19 0 7 0 28 0 2 .225 .253 .352 .605 14 Actual MIN 162 32 7 1 3 11 18 0 11 1 30 0 0 .198 .247 .309 .556 11 Valentin wasn't expected to hit much, and still managed to come up short. His only really good offensive season was three years ago, in A ball, when he batted .321 with 19 homers in 383 atbats at age 19. He's young enough to develop as a hitter, but he's got a long way to go. David Ortiz, 1B, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 71 19 4 0 4 10 13 1 3 0 21 0 1 .268 .307 .493 .800 10 Prorated MIN 309 83 17 0 17 43 57 4 13 0 91 0 4 .268 .307 .493 .800 42 Actual MIN 278 77 20 0 9 47 46 5 39 3 72 1 0 .277 .371 .446 .817 48 One of the Twins' best young players, Ortiz won the 1B and kept it. He would have had more atbats if he hadn't lost a couple of months to a broken wrist. His homerun rate suffered after he returned from the injury, but it should bounce back with rest. In 1997, he clubbed 31 homers in three minor-league stops, so the potential for some big numbers is evident. Orlando Merced, 1B/RF, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 522 144 31 2 16 72 75 2 61 5 85 9 4 .276 .351 .435 .786 82 Prorated MIN 198 55 12 1 6 27 28 1 23 2 32 3 2 .276 .351 .435 .786 31 Actual MIN 204 59 12 0 5 22 33 1 17 3 29 1 4 .289 .345 .422 .767 28 Actual BOS 9 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .000 .167 .000 .167 0 Actual CHN 10 3 0 0 1 2 5 0 1 0 2 0 0 .300 .333 .600 .933 1 Actual TOT 213 59 12 0 5 22 35 1 19 3 32 1 4 .277 .336 .404 .740 28 One of two veterans (along with Stahoviak) who lost playing time to younger players this past year. Merced hit reasonable well, and was traded after expressing unhappiness about losing his everyday role. Before his 1997 season was cut short by shoulder surgery, Merced was one of the best RFs in baseball at shutting down the running game. If the shoulder doesn't allow him to play RF any more, it may be hard for him to find a spot as a regular, as he's never hit well enough to be a first baseman on a good team. Scott Stahoviak, 1B, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 65 16 4 0 2 9 8 1 8 1 17 1 0 .246 .333 .400 .733 9 Prorated MIN 16 4 1 0 1 2 2 0 2 0 4 0 0 .246 .333 .400 .733 2 Actual MIN 19 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 7 0 0 .105 .105 .263 .368 1 In 1996, Stahoviak hit .284, reached base at a .376 clip, and belted 13 homers in 405 atbats. Not bad, even if one expects more offense from a first baseman. In 1997, his average slumped to .229 and he lost a third of his playing time. In 1998, he was third on the depth chart at 1B and spent most of the season in the minors, where he hit .316 with 18 homers in 399 atbats. That's ok, but not quite good enough to land a full-time 1B job in the majors. Declared free agency after the season, and recently signed a minor-league contract with the Cubs. Todd Walker, 2B, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 544 147 29 2 18 74 75 2 52 6 93 13 6 .270 .331 .430 .761 76 Prorated MIN 518 140 28 2 17 70 71 2 50 6 89 12 6 .270 .331 .430 .761 72 Actual MIN 528 167 41 3 12 84 62 2 47 9 65 19 7 .316 .372 .473 .845 92 Walker led the league in hitting for a good part of the season (hitting .345 through the end of July) before fading a little down the stretch. Still, he produced 20 more runs than expected, and this counts as the top offensive surprise on the club. He's established the ability to hit .340 in AAA, but his projections were dragged down by a relatively slow start in his major league career (.244 in 238 atbats in 1996-7). Now that he knows he can hit at the top level, I won't be surprised to see him consistently hit top the .300 mark for the next several years. Ron Coomer, 3B/1B, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 641 182 35 2 22 79 107 1 33 5 97 5 2 .284 .317 .448 .764 85 Prorated MIN 522 148 28 2 18 64 87 1 27 4 79 4 2 .284 .317 .448 .764 69 Actual MIN 529 146 22 1 15 54 72 0 18 1 72 2 2 .276 .295 .406 .702 57 OK, his power numbers were down, but why? Was it because he played with neck pain (caused by pinched nerves) and wasn't himself? Or because he walked only 18 times in 529 atbats, and opposing hurlers figured out that they needn't bother to throw him anything good to hit? I don't know, but even if he's healthy next year, his 1998 projection looks like the upper limit of his offensive potential, and that's merely average for a major league 3B. Brent Gates, 3B/2B, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 91 25 6 1 1 10 11 0 7 0 13 0 0 .275 .323 .396 .719 11 Prorated MIN 343 94 23 4 4 38 41 0 26 0 49 0 0 .275 .323 .396 .719 42 Actual MIN 333 83 15 0 3 31 42 2 36 0 46 3 3 .249 .324 .321 .645 36 Projected as a utility infielder, Gates ended up playing quite a bit. One of the reasons the Twins were 11th in the AL in scoring is that they gave 300 atbats at a power position to a guy with a lifetime .360 slugging average. Pat Meares, SS, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 529 140 26 5 10 69 67 15 18 0 98 9 6 .265 .304 .389 .693 60 Prorated MIN 535 142 26 5 10 70 68 15 18 0 99 9 6 .265 .304 .389 .693 60 Actual MIN 543 141 26 3 9 56 70 6 24 1 86 7 4 .260 .296 .368 .664 57 Meares was recently dumped in a widely criticized cost-cutting move. Several observers said that something's terribly wrong when one of the better hitters on the team is simply let go. But how much have they really lost? Meares is a good-but-not-great fielder who was fourth from the bottom in OPS among major league shortstops who had over 500 plate appearances in 1998. And he's been around long enough that a major improvement would be a surprise. Denny Hocking, IF/OF, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 126 30 6 1 2 14 14 1 8 0 22 2 2 .238 .287 .349 .636 12 Prorated MIN 200 48 10 2 3 22 22 2 13 0 35 3 3 .238 .287 .349 .636 19 Actual MIN 198 40 6 1 3 32 15 0 16 1 44 2 1 .202 .259 .288 .547 16 Hocking's high-water mark came in 1997, when he batted .257 with 18 walks and 2 homers in 253 atbats. He has a job because he's willing to play a lot of positions, but he'll have to start hitting to be valuable even in a utility role. Marty Cordova, LF, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 584 160 37 3 20 82 92 7 50 3 120 11 5 .274 .335 .450 .786 86 Prorated MIN 450 123 29 2 15 63 71 5 39 2 93 8 4 .274 .335 .450 .786 66 Actual MIN 438 111 20 2 10 52 69 5 50 3 103 3 6 .253 .333 .377 .709 54 Cordova broke in with two good seasons and seemed on his way to a nice career. But his OPS has declined for two years in a row, and he's been battling a strained plantar fascia in his foot (1997) and neck pain (1998). If he can get healthy and return to his former level, he'll be a useful player for a few more years. At current levels, he's in the bottom third of major league outfielders offensively. Otis Nixon, CF, age 39AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 570 153 18 2 0 85 37 0 66 0 82 54 14 .268 .343 .307 .650 68 Prorated MIN 441 118 14 2 0 66 29 0 51 0 63 42 11 .268 .343 .307 .650 52 Actual MIN 448 133 6 6 1 71 20 2 44 0 56 37 7 .297 .361 .344 .705 60 A pleasant surprise relative to pre-season expectations. But it's important to keep in mind that Nixon's .705 OPS was ahead of only four CFs (Finley, Glanville, Grissom, and Hunter) with more than 500 plate appearances. And that he turned 40 a few days ago. And that he's no longer covering as much ground on defense as he once did. A free agent after the season, Nixon signed for 1999 with Atlanta. Chris Latham, CF/LF/RF, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 80 17 2 0 1 10 7 0 8 0 19 3 2 .213 .284 .275 .559 6 Prorated MIN 97 21 2 0 1 12 8 0 10 0 23 4 2 .213 .284 .275 .559 8 Actual MIN 94 15 1 0 1 14 5 0 13 0 36 4 2 .160 .262 .202 .464 6 Latham has been stuck in AAA for three seasons now, and while he's been hitting reasonably well there (.324 with a .488 slugging average in 1998), he hasn't been blowing the doors off, either. The good news is that he takes more than his share of walks, and that batting eye might translate into some improvement over time. But he's never hit more than 15 homers in a season, even in the low minors, so the upside isn't huge. Matt Lawton, RF/CF/LF, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 397 100 22 2 12 63 56 8 58 2 64 6 5 .252 .357 .408 .765 61 Prorated MIN 564 142 31 3 17 89 80 11 82 3 91 9 7 .252 .357 .408 .765 86 Actual MIN 557 155 36 6 21 91 77 15 86 6 64 16 8 .278 .387 .478 .864 108 After discussing several Twins who ranked near the bottom in offense at their position, it's nice to be able to talk about someone who had a good season relative to expectations and relative to his peers. He ranked in the middle of the pack among right fielders this season. While there's not much evidence in his professional record suggesting that he can raise his game much further than this, he's young enough to be getting better, and I like his ability to get on base. Alex Ochoa, RF/LF, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 219 61 13 2 5 32 27 1 18 0 27 4 4 .279 .333 .425 .758 30 Prorated MIN 236 66 14 2 5 35 29 1 19 0 29 4 4 .279 .333 .425 .758 32 Actual MIN 249 64 14 2 2 35 25 1 10 0 35 6 3 .257 .288 .353 .642 23 Once a highly-touted prospect, now a question mark. With 9 homers in 806 career atbats, a career slugging percentage of .376, and a poor 1998 season, how many more chances will he get? And how many does he merit? Ochoa's minor-league record is merely good, with some nice batting averages but little in the way of walks or power. The Twins have seen enough, as they traded him to Milwaukee in December. Paul Molitor, DH/1B, age 41AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection MIN 605 183 35 6 10 74 91 2 52 8 75 13 3 .302 .354 .430 .784 94 Prorated MIN 505 153 29 5 8 62 76 2 43 7 63 11 3 .302 .354 .430 .784 78 Actual MIN 502 141 29 5 4 75 69 1 45 5 41 9 2 .281 .335 .382 .718 63 After the season, this potential Hall-of-Famer announced that his playing days are over. I've been a fan of his ever since he broke in as a 21-year-old in 1978. Proving that past injuries aren't always a predictor of future injuries, he overcame an "injury prone" tag and played in over 97% of his team's games from age 34 to 40. In 1998, Molitor's effectiveness was reduced by a bum shoulder, a broken rib and a sprained ankle. He leaves us having contributed 3319 hits, 234 homers, and 504 steals, all the while serving as a classy, intelligent, and articulate spokesman for the game. Key PitchersThe Minnesota staff allowed 58 fewer runs than projected, mainly because Mike Morgan was surprisingly effective for four months, Latroy Hawkins got his ERA down from the sixes to the fives, Greg Swindell kept his ERA under four for the second straight year, and Rick Aguilera had a pretty good year as the closer. The biggest disappointment was Frankie Rodriguez, who took a major step backward in his development. Brad Radke, Starter, age 25 (as of July 1, 1998)ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 3.92 32 32 13 10 0 218 212 30 47 142 .255 Prorated MIN 3.92 32 32 13 10 0 220 214 30 47 143 .255 Actual MIN 4.30 32 32 12 14 0 214 238 23 43 146 .283 Although Radke gave up more hits than expected, there's plenty of good news here. He's doing a much better job of keeping the ball in the park, with his homers allowed per nine innings dropping from 1.59 to 1.55 to 1.05 to 0.97 in the four years he's been in the league. He's one of only 19 pitchers who have tossed at least 200 innings in each of his last three seasons. Plus, his control is excellent, and he's still very young. Bob Tewksbury, Starter, age 37ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 4.90 32 32 10 13 0 209 251 18 44 112 .300 Prorated MIN 4.90 23 23 7 9 0 148 178 13 31 79 .300 Actual MIN 4.79 26 25 7 13 0 148 174 19 20 60 .292 It'll be interesting to see how much longer Tewksbury remains effective. He was a league-average pitcher in 1998, and as long as he can keep that up, he'll be an asset to just about any staff. But his strikeouts are dropping steadily, and that's usually a bad sign, even for someone like Tewksbury who has excellent control. He's a free agent. Mike Morgan, Starter, age 38ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 5.33 32 32 8 11 0 176 203 22 61 98 .294 Prorated MIN 5.33 17 17 4 6 0 94 109 12 33 53 .294 Actual MIN 3.49 18 17 4 2 0 98 108 13 24 50 .286 Actual CHN 7.15 5 5 0 1 0 23 30 8 15 10 .323 Actual TOT 4.18 23 22 4 3 0 121 138 21 39 60 .293 Looks like the Twins traded him at just the right time. Don't be fooled by his ERA. Counting his stint with the Cubs, he was slightly worse than projected, as he matched the projections in most categories but allowed homeruns at a higher rate. Eric Milton, Starter, age 22ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 4.62 32 32 11 11 0 187 181 21 107 160 .257 Prorated MIN 4.62 32 32 10 10 0 172 167 19 98 147 .257 Actual MIN 5.64 32 32 8 14 0 172 195 25 70 107 .282 Milton came to the Twins last spring in the Chuck Knoblauch trade. He'd never pitched above AA before, but stepped into the rotation and didn't embarrass himself. It's clear that our projection was too optimistic. By the way, his stats are quite similar to the ones Greg Maddux put up in his first full season. I'm not saying he's destined to be another Maddux, just pointing out that this was a pretty good debut for someone his age. Latroy Hawkins, Starter, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 6.10 4 4 1 2 0 21 27 3 8 14 .318 Prorated MIN 6.10 35 35 9 18 0 181 236 26 70 123 .318 Actual MIN 5.25 33 33 7 14 0 190 227 27 61 105 .299 There's very little in his professional record to suggest that he's on the brink of stardom. He took a step forward in 1998, and if he can take two more steps like this one, he'll eventually become a solid #3 starter. Frank Rodriguez, Spot Starter, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 4.20 27 27 7 6 0 152 153 15 58 79 .265 Prorated MIN 4.20 14 14 4 3 0 77 78 8 29 40 .265 Actual MIN 6.56 20 11 4 6 0 70 88 6 30 62 .303 Here's another guy who's been around long enough that it's easy to forget he just turned 26 in December. Drafted by the Red Sox as a shortstop/pitcher, he chose to make his mark on the mound. I was surprised when the Red Sox traded him away in 1995, but so far it appears to have been a good move. They got Aguilera for half a season, and he helped them win the division. And Rodriguez has done very little to date. He showed solid improvement in 1996 and 1997, but took a big step backward in 1998 and spent half the season in AAA. Dan Serafini, Spot Starter, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 6.37 23 0 1 2 0 30 35 4 15 23 .294 Prorated MIN 6.37 58 0 3 5 0 74 88 10 38 58 .294 Actual MIN 6.48 28 9 7 4 0 75 95 10 29 46 .310 Serafini hasn't shown much above the AAA level, so little was expected of him in 1998. He didn't do a whole lot to earn more playing time next year, but with the Twins embarking on a youth movement, he may get the chance anyway. Mike Trombley, Long Reliever, age 31ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 3.95 70 0 5 4 2 98 96 10 38 85 .257 Prorated MIN 3.95 69 0 5 4 2 96 94 10 37 84 .257 Actual MIN 3.63 77 1 6 5 1 97 90 16 41 89 .248 Has become an important member of the Twins bullpen, and contributed another solid season in 1998. Hector Carrasco, Middle Reliever, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection 3.57 13 0 1 1 0 18 17 1 9 15 .258 Prorated 3.57 47 0 4 4 0 66 62 4 33 55 .258 Actual MIN 4.38 63 0 4 2 1 62 75 4 31 46 .304 Carrasco's projection was done while he was still a free agent looking for a team, so it doesn't reflect two factors -- playing in a slight hitters' park and a DH league -- that would have pushed his numbers up a little. But not enough to make this anything other than a disappointing season that saw him allow more than one hit per inning for the first time in his career. Eddie Guardado, Middle Reliever, age 27ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 4.04 70 0 2 2 1 49 46 7 20 50 .247 Prorated MIN 4.04 95 0 3 3 1 67 63 10 27 68 .247 Actual MIN 4.52 79 0 3 1 0 66 66 10 28 53 .265 Although his ERA was up a little, it's clear from his other stats that Guardado gave Minnesota a very typical season. His career ERA is 5.31, so it would be unusual for someone like him to evolve into a star pitcher at this point in his career. Dan Naulty, Middle Reliever, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 5.00 53 0 2 3 0 54 52 11 29 49 .252 Prorated MIN 5.00 23 0 1 1 0 23 23 5 13 21 .252 Actual MIN 4.94 19 0 0 2 0 24 25 3 10 15 .269 Naulty was projected to have a more significant role than he did, but he began the season in AAA, was called up in late April, then went on the DL for good with a torn groin muscle in July. He was true to form when he did pitch, and was traded to the Yankees in November. Todd Ritchie, Middle Reliever, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 6.99 30 0 1 3 0 48 63 8 23 28 .320 Prorated MIN 6.99 15 0 1 2 0 24 32 4 12 14 .320 Actual MIN 5.63 15 0 0 0 0 24 30 1 9 21 .288 His projection was awful because his ERA was over 5.00 in both AA and AAA over the previous three years and because he allowed 115 baserunners in 75 innings with the Twins in 1997. His 1998 performance (including a 4.15 ERA in 61 innings in AAA) was noticeably better, but more improvement is needed before he becomes a valuable pitcher. He became a free agent after the season and signed with Pittsburgh for 1999. Greg Swindell, Middle Reliever, age 33ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 5.32 53 0 4 5 0 93 103 16 25 58 .281 Prorated MIN 5.32 37 0 3 4 0 66 73 11 18 41 .281 Actual MIN 3.66 52 0 3 3 2 66 67 10 18 45 .263 Actual BOS 3.38 29 0 2 3 0 24 25 3 13 18 .278 Actual TOT 3.59 81 0 5 6 2 90 92 13 31 63 .267 In 1997, Swindell pitched much better -- 14 fewer hits than innings, a lower homerun rate, and better control -- and had a 3.58 ERA to show for it. Even though his 1998 stats were much worse -- 123 runners and 13 homers allowed in 90 innings -- his ERA rose only to 3.59. Those 1998 numbers normally produce an ERA above 4.25. So while he pitched a little better than expected, and is a valuable member of a bullpen, his 1998 season wasn't quite as good as it might appear from his ERA. Rick Aguilera, Closer, age 36ERA G GS W L S INN H HR W K AVG Projection MIN 4.66 70 0 3 6 23 73 77 12 22 65 .269 Prorated MIN 4.66 68 0 3 6 22 71 75 12 21 63 .269 Actual MIN 4.24 68 0 4 9 38 74 75 8 15 57 .262 Aguilera didn't have a dominant-closer type of season, but it was a pretty good year. His control was a little better than projected and he kept the ball in the park. His rates of hits, walks and homers per nine innings usually produce an ERA a half-run lower than the one he actually had. OutlookThe Twins are young, but how good are they? They were outscored by 84 runs last year, so they have a lot of improving to do. The position players they've lost since the season ended -- Molitor, Nixon, and Meares -- were all below average at their positions offensively, so it's quite possible their replacements will be better. If Todd Walker and David Ortiz are for real, and Cordova is healthy, and their prospects turn out to be decent players, they may score more runs. Earlier in this review, I listed four pitchers who had upside surprises in 1998. Two of them (Morgan and Swindell) are no longer with the team, and Bob Tewksbury is a free agent as I write this. It doesn't appear as if ownership will spend any real money on pitching, so 1999 is a real question mark for this staff. They have a bunch of young arms at various stages of development, and they need a few of these guys to step forward. Two of the teams in their division (KC and Chicago) have lost a lot of talent since the season ended, so Minnesota may finish as high as third next year. But I'd have to say that their return to playoff contention is a long-term proposition. |
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