1998 Post-Season Review -- Montreal Expos

By Tom Ruane
February 4, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Montreal Expos did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            688      644
Runs allowed        786      783
Run Margin          -98     -139
Wins                 68       65
Pythagorean wins     70       65
Placement           5th      4th

Like most small market teams, the Expos spent the last off-season watching several of their players head to richer organizations. Pedro Martinez, David Segui, Mike Lansing, Darrin Fletcher, Dave Veres and Henry Rodriguez all left following the season, either as free agents or as part of deals designed to reduce Montreal's salary commitments. Whenever possible, Montreal managed to trade their expensive players for prospects. During the season, they further unloaded one player they could no longer afford (Carlos Perez) along with another they no longer wanted (Mark Grudzielanek) for Wilton Guerrero and some of the top prospects in the Dodgers' farm system.

On the field, the 1998 Expos were a little disappointing, as the players they expected to replace their departing hitters did not, for the most part, hit as well as we thought they would.

Key Position Players

The Expos scored 44 fewer runs that we'd predicted. Vladimir Guerrero and Rondell White did much better than anticipated, but they weren't enough to offset White's season-ending injury and a series of disappointments, including Widger, McGuire, Vidro, May and Santangelo.

Chris Widger, C, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 520 130 32  4 16  55  64  3  35  1 102  4  1  .250  .299  .419  .718  63
Prorated   MON 412 103 25  3 13  44  51  2  28  1  81  3  1  .250  .299  .419  .718  50
Actual     MON 417  97 18  1 15  36  53  0  29  2  85  6  1  .233  .281  .388  .670  46

Widger took over the catching duties after the loss of Fletcher. At one point in June and early July, he started 34 consecutive games behind the plate. He was projected to improve upon his performance in 1997, but he was hitting slightly worse than that when his season ended in mid-September with a sprained ligament in his right thumb.

Bob Henley, C, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     MON 115  35  8  1  3  16  18  3  11  0  26  3  0  .304  .377  .470  .846  21

We didn't do a projection for him. He missed the second half of 1997 with post-concussive syndrome, but was called up in July and won the backup job by hitting very well over the last three months.

Brad Fullmer, 1B, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 580 158 38  2 22  70  87 11  20  6  48  4  5  .272  .304  .459  .763  76
Prorated   MON 511 139 33  2 19  62  77 10  18  5  42  4  4  .272  .304  .459  .763  67
Actual     MON 505 138 44  2 13  58  73  2  39  4  70  6  6  .273  .327  .446  .773  70

The Expos top prospect, Fullmer was expected to be a candidate for the Rookie of the Year award in 1998. He should have got more support than he did, as he was arguably a better hitter than Todd Helton (who finished second behind Kerry Wood). Helton owed much of his top year to Coors Field and hit only .273 (with 36 RBIs and a .810 OPS) on the road. Fullmer, on the other hand, hit .305 (with 40 RBIs and a .889 OPS) away from Olympic Stadium. His defense at first base is still a liability, however, as he was primarily an outfielder and third baseman in the minors, and there is some talk of moving him to the outfield in 1999 and letting Andrews play first.

Ryan McGuire, 1B/LF, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 104  26  6  0  2  14  10  0  12  1  17  2  1  .250  .325  .365  .690  13
Prorated   MON 215  54 12  0  4  29  21  0  25  2  35  4  2  .250  .325  .365  .690  26
Actual     MON 210  39  9  0  1  17  10  0  32  0  55  0  0  .186  .292  .243  .535  15

A frequent late-inning defensive replacement for Fullmer, McGuire had a terrible season at the plate. He had hit .256 the year before (and .299 at AAA) so this was a little unexpected. It doesn't really matter how good a fielder he is--McGuire will not last much longer in the major leagues hitting like he did in 1998.

Jose Vidro, 2B, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 388 101 24  1 11  45  54  2  19  3  50  3  1  .260  .294  .412  .706  47
Prorated   MON 227  59 14  1  6  26  32  1  11  2  29  2  1  .260  .294  .412  .706  28
Actual     MON 205  45 12  0  0  24  18  4  27  0  33  2  2  .220  .318  .278  .596  20

He started the season as the regular second baseman but was sent to the minors briefly in May when Santangelo replaced him for a short time at second. He was benched for good in early July and sent to the minors a few weeks later. Has been hitting quite well in winter ball this year.

Wilton Guerrero, 2B/SS, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection LAN  90  26  3  1  1  11   6  0   3  0  13  3  3  .289  .312  .378  .690  10
Prorated   LAN 178  51  6  2  2  22  12  0   6  0  26  6  6  .289  .312  .378  .690  20
Actual     LAN 180  51  4  3  0  21   7  1   4  0  33  5  2  .283  .299  .339  .638  18
Actual     MON 222  63 10  6  2  29  20  0  10  0  30  3  0  .284  .313  .410  .723  30
Actual     TOT 402 114 14  9  2  50  27  1  14  0  63  8  2  .284  .307  .378  .685  48

He was picked up from the Dodgers in the Grudzielanek/Carlos Perez deal at the end of July. He has little power and seldom walks, but he's still as good a hitter as Grudzielanek. In addition, he's five years younger than Grudzielanek and has a decent chance of improving. There was a rumor that the Expos' only picked up Wilton to help convince his younger brother Vladimir to sign a long-term deal with Montreal. If this was their strategy, it worked.

Mark Grudzielanek, SS, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 639 177 43  3  4  80  48 10  24  2  80 26  8  .277  .312  .372  .685  74
Prorated   MON 410 114 28  2  3  51  31  6  15  1  51 17  5  .277  .312  .372  .685  47
Actual     MON 396 109 15  1  8  51  41  9  21  1  50 11  5  .275  .323  .379  .702  47
Actual     LAN 193  51  6  0  2  11  21  2   5  1  23  7  0  .264  .286  .326  .612  18
Actual     TOT 589 160 21  1 10  62  62 11  26  2  73 18  5  .272  .311  .362  .673  65

Grudzielanek, a vastly overrated shortstop, spent most of the season complaining about his contract negotiations as well as the Expos' inability to compete with large market teams. He was a liability in the field and hit about as poorly as expected before being unloaded to the Dodgers at the end of July.

Orlando Cabrera, SS/2B, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 541 136 31  6  9  89  59  4  27  0  66 29  8  .251  .288  .381  .669  63
Prorated   MON 263  66 15  3  4  43  29  2  13  0  32 14  4  .251  .288  .381  .669  31
Actual     MON 261  73 16  5  3  44  22  0  18  1  27  6  2  .280  .325  .414  .739  35

Expected to lead off and play second prior to the season, Cabrera struggled at the plate in spring training and was sent down at the start of the season. He was recalled in late June, split time with Vidro until Grudzielanek was traded, and then moved to short. His success over the second-half of the season was a bit unexpected, considering his poor spring and the .232 he hit at AAA prior to his recall.

Shane Andrews, 3B, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 183  41  8  1  9  24  29  1  16  3  58  1  1  .224  .287  .426  .713  23
Prorated   MON 506 113 22  3 25  66  80  3  44  8 161  3  3  .224  .287  .426  .713  64
Actual     MON 492 117 30  1 25  48  69  0  58  3 137  1  6  .238  .314  .455  .769  69

He missed almost all of 1997 with a shoulder injury, but managed to stay healthy and in the Expos lineup the entire season. Andrews was hitting .213 in mid-June when manager Felipe Alou indicated that he would not be part of the Expos' plans for 1999. Andrews raised his average slightly after that, but he still might be traded or moved to first to make room for Michael Barrett, Montreal's top prospect and a third baseman.

F.P. Santangelo, LF/2B/CF, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 577 145 30  7  7  82  59 28  73  3 101 10  6  .251  .360  .364  .724  85
Prorated   MON 381  96 20  5  5  54  39 18  48  2  67  7  4  .251  .360  .364  .724  56
Actual     MON 383  82 18  0  4  53  23 23  44  1  72  7  3  .214  .330  .292  .623  42

Santangelo had arthroscopic surgery on both knees during the off-season. He filled in at three positions until he went on the DL in mid-July with a fractured left-patella and missed two weeks. His hitting was awful; Santangelo's offense has gotten worse every year since his rookie season, and unless he improves significantly in 1999, he might not in the major leagues much longer. This is no longer a concern of the Expos, however, since Santangelo signed a contract to play with the Giants in 1999.

Derrick May, LF, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON  68  17  3  1  1   6   8  0   6  1  10  1  1  .250  .307  .368  .674   8
Prorated   MON 174  44  8  3  3  15  20  0  15  3  26  3  3  .250  .307  .368  .674  20
Actual     MON 180  43  8  0  5  13  15  0  11  1  24  0  0  .239  .281  .367  .648  18

Picked up as a minor league free agent prior to the season, May was expected to provide some left-handed power after the loss of Fletcher, Segui and Rodriguez. He spent part of the year in the minors and hit much better over the second half of the season.

Rondell White, CF/LF, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 582 161 31  5 23  82  78  8  35  2 104 19  8  .277  .325  .466  .790  83
Prorated   MON 367 102 20  3 15  52  49  5  22  1  66 12  5  .277  .325  .466  .790  52
Actual     MON 357 107 21  2 17  54  58  7  30  2  57 16  7  .300  .363  .513  .875  66

He was having his best season of his career before he fractured his ring finger on July 20th and missed the rest of the year. Along with Vladimir Guerrero, White gives Montreal two-thirds of the best young outfield in baseball.

Terry Jones, CF, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     MON 212  46  7  2  1  30  15  0  21  1  46 16  4  .217  .288  .283  .571  20

No projection. A poor hitting outfielder with no power, he had been hitting .237 at AAA (with no home runs) when called up in late July to replace Rondell White. The Expos have to hope White doesn't get injured again anytime soon.

Vladimir Guerrero, RF, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection MON 554 169 37  7 18  80  73 11  37  7  61  8  9  .305  .358  .495  .853  92
Prorated   MON 619 189 41  8 20  89  82 12  41  8  68  9 10  .305  .358  .495  .853 102
Actual     MON 623 202 37  7 38 107 109  7  42 13  95 11  9  .324  .371  .589  .960 129

Vladimir Guerrero blossomed into one of the game's best young players in 1998. He managed to stay healthy all season (after two trips to the DL the previous year) and, although he struck out more than he had in the past, he also hit with a lot more power, including 24 home runs after the All-Star break. The Expos signed him to a $28 million/five year contract in September.

Key Pitchers

The Expos allowed about as many runs as expected, as bad years from Marc Valdes, Javier Vazquez, and Shayne Bennett, were offset by a good year from Dustin Hermanson and some excellent years by Urbina and other members of Montreal's bullpen.

Dustin Hermanson, Starter, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  3.71  32 32  11  9  0  180 158 19  82 164  .237
Prorated   MON  3.71  32 32  11  9  0  180 158 19  82 164  .237
Actual     MON  3.13  32 30  14 11  0  187 163 21  56 154  .234

Despite missing a couple of weeks in May with a muscle strain, Hermanson developed into the ace of the Expos' staff last year. After returning from the disabled list, he went 11-7 with a 2.87 ERA. Once Perez was traded to the Dodgers, Hermanson became the oldest member of the starting rotation at 25.

Carl Pavano, Starter, age 22

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  4.15  32 32  11 10  0  195 205 16  52 168  .271
Prorated   MON  4.15  22 22   8  7  0  136 143 11  36 117  .271
Actual     MON  4.21  24 23   6  9  0  135 130 18  43  83  .251

Pavano, one of the best pitchers in Boston's farm system in 1997, was traded to Montreal for Pedro Martinez. He came down with shoulder tendinitis and did not join the Expos until May 23rd. When he was healthy, Pavano pitched as well as we thought he would, giving up fewer hits but more home runs than predicted.

Carlos Perez, Starter, age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  3.81  32 32  11 10  0  203 194 20  45 115  .253
Prorated   MON  3.81  27 27   9  8  0  169 161 17  37  95  .253
Actual     MON  3.75  23 23   7 10  0  163 177 12  33  82  .277
Actual     LA   3.24  11 11   4  4  0   78  67  9  30  46  .234
Actual     TOT  3.59  34 34  11 14  0  241 244 21  63 128  .264

Perez was having a season much like his previous two when he was dealt to the Dodgers at the end of July. The Expos wanted to dump his salary, but also managed to pick up some excellent prospects in the process, including Peter Bergeron, who has a good chance to be Montreal's leadoff hitter in 1999 or 2000.

Javier Vazquez, Starter, age 21

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  5.60  27 27   6 11  0  151 180 19  78 143  .298
Prorated   MON  5.60  30 30   7 12  0  166 197 21  86 157  .298
Actual     MON  6.06  33 32   5 15  0  172 196 31  68 139  .292

The Expos' top pitching prospect prior to the season (he led all minor leagues in 1997 with a 1.86 ERA), Vazquez went through what is usually termed a learning experience last year.

Mike Thurman, Starter, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  4.71  27  4   2  2  0   36  37  5  13  25  .266
Prorated   MON  4.71  49  7   4  4  0   66  68  9  24  46  .266
Actual     MON  4.70  14 13   4  5  0   67  60  7  26  32  .238

Thurman started the year in the minors and was called up on July 24th. He ended up replacing Perez in the rotation and managed to hold his own against major league hitters.

Marc Valdes, Starter/Middle Relief, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  4.73  32 32   7  8  0  158 177 12  63  88  .287
Prorated   MON  4.73   8  8   2  2  0   38  42  3  15  21  .287
Actual     MON  7.43  20  4   1  3  0   36  41  6  21  28  .285

Began the season in the starting rotation but was moved to the bullpen after posting a 10.38 ERA through four starts. He went on the DL at the end of May with tendinitis in his elbow and would pitch only six more innings all season.

Miguel Batista, Starter/Middle Relief, age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  5.61  21  4   2  3  0   43  50  5  23  32  .292
Prorated   MON  5.61  63 12   6  9  0  131 151 15  69  97  .292
Actual     MON  3.80  56 13   3  5  0  135 141 12  65  92  .274

He came over from the Cubs in the Henry Rodriguez deal and moved into the starting rotation when Valdes pitched poorly in April. Although his record didn't show it, Batista pitched well as a starter but was moved to the bullpen when Pavano was ready. He would return to the rotation in September and end up with a 3.03 ERA (with a 2-2 record) as a starter compared to a 4.66 ERA as a reliever. (His ERA was a bit misleading, however, as 9.4 hits, 4.3 walks, and .8 homers per game normally add up to an ERA in the 4.70-4.80 range.)

Ugueth Urbina, Closer, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  3.50  70  0   4  5 30   75  63 10  31  81  .228
Prorated   MON  3.50  60  0   3  4 26   64  54  9  27  70  .228
Actual     MON  1.30  64  0   6  3 34   69  37  2  33  94  .157

In 1998, Urbina turned in one of the greatest seasons ever by a young reliever. Only Rich Gossage and Gregg Olson have exceeded twenty saves with a sub-2.00 ERA at a younger age than Urbina.

Shayne Bennett, Middle Relief, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  4.61  53  0   3  4  0   70  75  5  35  53  .275
Prorated   MON  4.61  70  0   4  5  0   92  98  7  46  70  .275
Actual     MON  5.50  62  0   5  5  1   92  97  8  45  59  .276

Bennett came to the Expos in the Wil Cordero deal. Probably the only major league baseball player with professional Australian Rules football experience, he allowed almost exactly the number of hits, homers and walks per nine innings that we predicted, but had an ERA nearly a run higher.

Steve Kline, Middle Relief, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  6.67  23  0   1  2  0   30  40  4  12  22  .328
Prorated   MON  6.67  53  0   2  5  0   69  92  9  28  51  .328
Actual     MON  2.76  78  0   3  6  1   72  62  4  41  76  .228

Kline was a very pleasant surprise for the Expos last season. He was obtained from the Indians for Jeff Juden in the middle of 1997 and finished that year with a 5.98 ERA. His projection was this bad mainly because he allowed 96 baserunners and 10 homers in 53 innings that season and posted a 5.46 ERA in AA ball in 1996. He ended up cutting his ERA in half instead, mainly by keeping the ball in the park, though he's still putting a lot of guys on base.

Mike Maddux, Middle Relief, age 36

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  4.85  40  0   4  4  0   82  92  7  29  56  .288
Prorated   MON  4.85  25  0   3  3  0   52  58  4  18  35  .288
Actual     MON  3.72  51  0   3  4  1   56  50  3  15  33  .243

Maddux missed the first month of the season with a strained groin, and went back on the DL the first week in June with elbow tendinitis, missing another month. Despite the injuries, Maddux pitched well in 1998, putting up his best numbers in five years.

Anthony Telford, Middle Relief, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection MON  5.02  70  0   4  5  3   95 103 13  38  64  .279
Prorated   MON  5.02  66  0   4  5  3   90  98 12  36  61  .279
Actual     MON  3.86  77  0   3  6  1   91  85  9  36  59  .247

Telford's projection would have been a lot better had it been based solely on his 1997 campaign (3.24 ERA in 65 games). But he was coming off two seasons in which he allowed more than a hit per inning and posted ERAs above 4.00 at the AAA level, and at age 32 was assumed to be in the decline phase of his career. Telford surprised us with another strong year.

Outlook

Unlike last year, Montreal won't lose any key players during the off-season. Vladimir Guerrero, Urbina, White and others are all signed to long-term deals. Except for their commitment to low salaries (caused in part by a poor-exchange rate and an awful stadium), the Expos have a very well-run and well-managed franchise. There's young talent everywhere you look on this team, and if things break Montreal's way, they could surprise a lot of people in 1999.

On the other hand, they are not a deep team (witness the number of at-bats given to players like McGuire, May, and Jones last year) and are very vulnerable to injuries to their front-line players. Rondell White has asked to be traded in light of critical comments made by his manager, and the Expos may grant his wish, though those trade rumors have died down recently. This could be a big problem for them; Montreal is very thin in the outfield and can ill afford to lose White without getting a good major league outfielder in return.

They have a good chance to post a winning record and an outside shot at a wild-card spot. Even if they don't manage to do either of these, they should still have one of the more interesting teams in 1999.