Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- New York Yankees By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the New York Yankees did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 917 965 Runs allowed 802 656 Run Margin 115 309 Wins 92 114 Pythagorean wins 92 111 Placement 1st 1st In retrospect, it seems obvious that the Yankees would tear through the AL last year en route to a World Championship and 125 victories, but there were a lot of questions prior to the season, especially with regard to their pitching. Cone was coming off shoulder surgery, Pettitte had complained of a tired arm at the end of 1997, Irabu had been a major disappointment, and Gooden and Rogers were no longer with the team. The offseason moves, with the exception of the Knoblauch deal, didn't seem to noticeably improve the club. They replaced Charlie Hayes with Scott Brosius, and Cecil Fielder with Chili Davis. Hayes had hit better than Brosius in 1997, while Davis, coming off a much better season than Fielder, turned 38 before the start of the season. As it turned out, Knoblauch suffered through an off-season, Davis missed most of the year with an ankle injury, and the Yankees broke the American League record for wins anyway. They did it with the league's best hitting and pitching, and while we had expected their hitters to trail only Seattle in runs scored, the performance of their pitchers was quite a surprise. Key Position PlayersNew York scored 48 more runs than expected in 1998, as such over-achievers as Scott Brosius, Jorge Posada and Darryl Strawberry more than made up for Chili Davis' injury and Chuck Knoblauch's mediocre season. Joe Girardi, C, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 469 123 24 2 1 48 51 3 31 1 70 5 4 .262 .310 .328 .639 46 Prorated NYA 254 67 13 1 1 26 28 2 17 1 38 3 2 .262 .310 .328 .639 25 Actual NYA 254 70 11 4 3 31 31 2 14 1 38 2 4 .276 .317 .386 .703 28 Girardi hit better than we thought last year and still played less than Posada. Manager Joe Torre let Girardi catch almost all of Cone's and Pettitte's starts in 1998, while Posada was behind the plate for the bulk of the other pitcher's starts. Jorge Posada, C, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 97 23 6 0 3 17 14 2 16 0 22 0 2 .237 .350 .392 .742 13 Prorated NYA 339 80 21 0 10 59 49 7 56 0 77 0 7 .237 .350 .392 .742 47 Actual NYA 358 96 23 0 17 56 63 0 47 7 92 0 1 .268 .350 .475 .824 57 He developed more quickly than anticipated in 1998, hitting more home runs and finishing with a higher batting average, despite a somewhat poorer walk to strikeout ratio. He has always been a patient hitter in the minors (leading the International League in walks in 1996), and his walks totals should improve next season. Posada is a switch hitter, but had a .982 OPS against lefties last year, compared to a .755 mark against righties. Tino Martinez, 1B, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 569 163 28 1 33 86 123 3 68 11 83 1 1 .286 .361 .513 .874 105 Prorated NYA 532 152 26 1 31 80 115 3 64 10 78 1 1 .286 .361 .513 .874 98 Actual NYA 531 149 33 1 28 92 123 6 61 3 83 2 1 .281 .355 .505 .860 94 Martinez was off to a hot start when he was drilled by an Armando Benitez fastball on May 19th. He ended up missing ten games and slumped badly for a month after his return. He rebounded with a strong second half, and while he didn't come close to hitting 44 home runs again, few really expected him to. I'm not a big believer in clutch statistics, but Martinez hit .338 with men in scoring position last year, which was the reason his RBIs didn't decline all that much from the 141 he had in 1997. Chuck Knoblauch, 2B, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 566 173 28 10 9 115 57 15 84 5 81 50 12 .306 .407 .438 .845 112 Prorated NYA 597 183 30 11 9 121 60 16 89 5 85 53 13 .306 .407 .438 .845 119 Actual NYA 603 160 25 4 17 117 64 18 76 1 70 31 12 .265 .361 .405 .765 94 He came to New York in February in exchange for four minor leaguers and a pile of money and proceeded to have one of the worst years of his career. All facets of his game except for home run hitting suffered. He had only 31 stolen bases after posting twice that many the year before; his batting average dropped to a career low (in the last three years, his average has gone from .341 to .291 to .265), and his defense, especially his throwing, was shaky most of the year. He hit 11 home runs in the month following the All-Star game -- more than he had hit in his first four major league seasons combined. Derek Jeter, SS, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 541 164 25 5 8 96 63 8 57 0 101 18 8 .303 .375 .412 .788 87 Prorated NYA 610 185 28 6 9 108 71 9 64 0 114 20 9 .303 .375 .412 .788 98 Actual NYA 626 203 25 8 19 127 84 5 57 1 119 30 6 .324 .384 .481 .864 119 Jeter missed two weeks at the beginning of May with a strained abdominal muscle and still managed nearly 700 plate appearances. In most other eras, Jeter would be considered the dominant shortstop of his time. As it is, he might be no better than third best in his league, behind Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra. This is truly the golden age for shortstops, at least in the AL. Scott Brosius, 3B, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 524 126 25 1 18 75 57 7 50 2 112 8 4 .240 .312 .395 .707 66 Prorated NYA 536 129 26 1 18 77 58 7 51 2 114 8 4 .240 .312 .395 .707 67 Actual NYA 530 159 34 0 19 86 98 10 52 1 97 11 8 .300 .371 .472 .843 96 Brosius is not an easy player to get a line on. In 1996, he hit 22 home runs and batted .304. This was by far his best season, and while there were doubts that could repeat that success the following year, few imagined he would hit only .203 with 11 homers. We expected him to split the difference last season, but the pendulum swung all the way back to .300 instead. His fine hitting, as well as his excellent defense, was a big factor in the Yankees success. Now what will he do for an encore? Chad Curtis, LF/CF, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 243 63 13 0 7 40 29 2 29 0 41 8 5 .259 .338 .399 .737 34 Prorated NYA 473 123 25 0 14 78 56 4 56 0 80 16 10 .259 .338 .399 .737 66 Actual NYA 456 111 21 1 10 79 56 7 75 3 80 21 5 .243 .355 .360 .714 65 Curtis found himself at the front of New York's left-field-by-committee last season and failed to repeat his surprisingly good performance of a year earlier. He didn't have as bad a season as his career-low batting average might indicate, as he set highs in both walks and stolen base percentage. Bernie Williams, CF, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 582 180 33 6 24 113 103 1 83 6 93 14 6 .309 .392 .510 .903 119 Prorated NYA 499 154 28 5 21 97 88 1 71 5 80 12 5 .309 .392 .510 .903 102 Actual NYA 499 169 30 5 26 101 97 1 74 9 81 15 9 .339 .422 .575 .997 117 Williams and his agent spent much of last winter in a bitter contract dispute with the Yankees and there was some worry that his upcoming free-agency would prove a distraction in 1998. It didn't, and despite a trip to the DL for the third consecutive year, he ended up with the AL batting title and the best season of his career. His slugging percentage has now gone up for five consecutive years. The record? Joe Morgan, who increased his slugging percentage for eight straight years from 1969 to 1976. Paul O'Neill, RF, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 534 164 38 1 20 85 101 1 82 8 89 3 5 .307 .395 .494 .889 103 Prorated NYA 573 176 41 1 21 91 108 1 88 9 96 3 5 .307 .395 .494 .889 111 Actual NYA 602 191 40 2 24 95 116 2 57 2 103 15 1 .317 .372 .510 .882 113 Most of O'Neill stats were right in line with our predictions. Two surprises: fewer walks and much more success on the bases (15 steals in 16 attempts). I wonder what his career would have looked like had he come up with the Yankees. At the time of his trade to New York in 1992, he had a .259 career batting average in five and a half seasons. In the six years since the trade, O'Neill has hit .317. Shane Spencer, RF/LF, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual NYA 67 25 6 0 10 18 27 0 5 0 12 0 1 .373 .411 .910 1.321 25 We didn't do a projection for him in 1998. Despite hitting 30 home runs at AAA the year before, his average was only .241, and with the crowded outfield situation in New York, we figured he would be buried behind Curtis, Strawberry, Raines and Ledee in left field. As it was, he spent most of the season at AAA (hitting .322 with power) before finishing up with a spectacular five weeks in the Bronx. His performance drew comparisons to such flashes in the pan as Hurricane Bob Hazle and Duke Maas, but despite his relatively advanced age, there's no reason to think he can't have a productive major league career. That career might be somewhere other than New York, however, as Rickie Ledee will probably get the next crack at an outfield job. Chili Davis, DH, age 38AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 533 151 25 0 27 78 95 0 94 15 108 5 3 .283 .387 .482 .869 101 Prorated NYA 99 28 5 0 5 15 18 0 18 3 20 1 1 .283 .387 .482 .869 19 Actual NYA 103 30 7 0 3 11 9 0 14 1 18 0 1 .291 .373 .447 .819 16 Davis went down after only two games with an ankle injury and didn't return until August 17th. It doesn't seem as if the Yankees missed his bat in the lineup, as they went 90-30 while he was disabled. Of course, New York put up similarly fine numbers when Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams were out, so we probably shouldn't read too much into this. Tim Raines, DH/LF, age 38AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 64 18 4 0 1 12 8 0 10 0 9 2 1 .281 .373 .391 .764 10 Prorated NYA 326 92 20 0 5 61 41 0 51 0 46 10 5 .281 .373 .391 .764 51 Actual NYA 321 93 13 1 5 53 47 3 55 1 49 8 3 .290 .395 .383 .778 54 He was another player who was given an opportunity to play more because of the injury to Chili Davis and, as expected, Raines was effective in a part-time role. There was a lot of talk last year about how the team was winning at an unprecendented pace without having any certain Hall of Famers on their roster. Well, Tim Raines ought to be a first-ballot selection someday, and with his three seasons on the Yankees, he now has two World Series rings as well. His career with New York appears over, as he was not offered salary arbitration and can not sign with the team prior to May 1st. Darryl Strawberry, DH/LF, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 353 81 16 0 22 54 70 0 48 5 103 5 5 .229 .318 .462 .779 53 Prorated NYA 300 69 14 0 19 46 59 0 41 4 88 4 4 .229 .318 .462 .779 45 Actual NYA 295 73 11 2 24 44 57 3 46 4 90 8 7 .247 .354 .542 .896 58 Strawberry missed almost all of 1997 due to knee problems and was enjoying a fine comeback season until being diagnosed with colon cancer prior to the playoffs. This is the same type of cancer that Eric Davis (a childhood friend of Darryl's) was treated for the year before. Prior to that, Strawberry was having his best year since 1991. We thought he'd make up for a low batting average with good power, but his average wasn't as low as expected and his power was even greater. In one nine-game stretch from July 22nd to August 4th, he went 9 for 27 with 8 home runs and 16 RBIs. Key PitchersNew York allowed nearly a run a game less than expected. There were almost as many reasons for this as there were pitchers on the team, as those having unexpectedly fine seasons included Wells, Irabu, Hernandez, Mendoza, Lloyd and Holmes. Only Mike Stanton was a significant disappointment last year for the Yankees, as a staff that started the season with a number of question marks emerged as the best in the league. David Cone, Starter, age 35Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 3.32 32 32 15 9 0 211 180 19 96 229 .230 Prorated NYA 3.32 31 31 14 9 0 204 174 18 93 221 .230 Actual NYA 3.55 31 31 20 7 0 208 186 20 59 209 .237 Cone was attempting to come back from off-season shoulder surgery and his first few starts did nothing to allay concerns about his effectiveness. He allowed 16 runs in 9 2/3 innings to open the season, but posted an even 3.00 ERA the rest of the way and reached the 20-win mark for the first time in 10 years, the longest gap between such seasons for a pitcher this century. His control was the most surprising aspect of his performance, as he cut his walks by a third while maintaining an excellent strikeouts to innings-pitched ratio. Andy Pettitte, Starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 3.62 32 32 13 9 0 214 214 12 65 160 .262 Prorated NYA 3.62 33 33 14 9 0 223 223 12 68 166 .262 Actual NYA 4.24 33 32 16 11 0 216 226 20 87 146 .274 Pettitte was an oddity in 1998: a Yankee pitcher having an off-year. He was on his way to a season much like we'd predicted (13-6 record with a 3.56 ERA), but after missing a start at the beginning of August with a strained back muscle, he struggled down the stretch, going 3-5 with a 6.14 ERA. The opening-day pitcher last year, he was considered no better than the team's fourth-best starter by the end of the season. David Wells, Starter, age 35Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 4.92 32 32 10 13 0 209 241 27 46 142 .290 Prorated NYA 4.92 30 30 9 12 0 198 229 26 44 135 .290 Actual NYA 3.49 30 30 18 4 0 214 195 29 29 163 .239 Wells blew up at manager Joe Torre when he was removed from a game in early May. At the time, his ERA stood at 5.77 and commentators were wondering if he had what it took to succeed in New York. Given his age and 4.68 ERA over the two previous seasons, there was little reason to believe he wouldn't continue to have his problems as the year progressed. Instead, he turned his season around after that game, with a 2.90 ERA the rest of the way and the best control of his career. After walking 13 in those first 43 2/3 innings, he'd walk only 16 more over his last 170 1/3 innings. Orlando Hernandez, Starter, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual NYA 3.13 21 21 12 4 0 141 113 11 52 131 .222 We didn't do a projection on him because he had played baseball in Cuba prior to 1998. He signed with the Yankees in March and went 7-1 in minor leagues before getting called up in early June. Including his record in the post-season, Hernandez would go a combined 21-5 during his first season in the states. His performance, along with Irabu's, goes a long way to explaining why the Yankees had a much better pitching staff than anticipated. Hideki Irabu, Starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 6.84 32 32 6 13 0 168 216 41 60 177 .311 Prorated NYA 6.84 31 31 6 12 0 160 206 39 57 169 .311 Actual NYA 4.06 29 28 13 9 0 173 148 27 76 126 .233 A few years down the road, we'll probably be doing a much better job of predicting the performance of Japanese pitchers, but at this point there's simply not a lot of data to go on. In 1997, he was truly awful in the big leagues (7.09 ERA, 89 baserunners and an incredible 15 homers allowed in only 53 innings) and pretty good in the minors (only 36 hits and 5 walks allowed in 46 innings at three levels). In spring training last year, he began with a couple of terrible outings and followed with a couple of brilliant ones. Which Irabu would show up in 1998? The answer was pretty fundamental to our assessment of the club's 1998
chances. We had him penciled in as the #5 starter in our simulations,
so he got a full slate of starts despite the weak projection. Had he been
rated to perform at the league average, the Yankees would have been projected
for 98-100 wins instead of 92. Now the question is: which Irabu will show up in 1999? The dominant pitcher of last April and May, or the one who was a well-below-average pitcher and gopher-ball factory the last four months of the year? Ramiro Mendoza, Swing man, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 5.13 27 27 7 9 0 163 196 15 37 103 .302 Prorated NYA 5.13 21 21 5 7 0 127 153 12 29 80 .302 Actual NYA 3.25 41 14 10 2 1 130 131 9 30 56 .264 Mendoza was having a pretty good season (4-1, 4.00) when he was demoted to the bullpen in early June to make room for Hernandez. By the end of the season, it sure looked like a good move. Not only did Hernandez pitch well, but Mendoza was also much more effective coming out of the pen. His ERA when relieving was less than half (1.93 to 3.87) of his starting ERA. Mariano Rivera, Closer, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 2.54 70 0 6 3 38 78 64 4 23 84 .224 Prorated NYA 2.54 55 0 5 2 30 61 50 3 18 66 .224 Actual NYA 1.91 54 0 3 0 36 61 48 3 17 36 .215 He missed a couple of weeks at the start of the season with a groin injury, but pitched great once he came of the disabled list. He didn't allow a run in his first ten games, and his ERA was below 1.25 as late as August 13th. He had a little trouble over the last month, but still finished up with his third straight excellent season. Over that span (of 181 games and 240 innings), Rivera's ERA has been 1.98. One curious thing has been his strikeout totals. Since 1996, his strikeouts per nine innings has gone from 10.87 to 8.54 to 5.28, but his effectiveness has been relatively unchanged. Graeme Lloyd, Middle Relief, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 4.53 53 0 3 3 0 56 61 6 17 30 .281 Prorated NYA 4.53 32 0 2 2 0 34 37 4 10 18 .281 Actual NYA 1.67 50 0 3 0 0 38 26 3 6 20 .191 Apart from missing some time early in the season with a sore shoulder, just about everything went right for Lloyd last year. The lefty was equally effective against batters from both sides of the plate and proved to be a valuable short reliever. From 1994 to 1996, he had gone 4-14 with a 4.64 ERA. We figured that there was a good chance he'd return to that territory following a decent 1997 campaign, but he headed in the other direction instead. Lloyd had the best control of his career in 1998. Willie Banks, Middle Relief, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 6.09 44 4 3 6 0 92 112 14 39 68 .306 Prorated NYA 6.09 8 1 1 1 0 17 21 3 7 13 .306 Actual NYA 10.05 9 0 1 1 0 14 20 4 12 8 .323 Actual ARI 3.09 33 0 1 2 1 44 34 2 25 32 .217 Actual TOT 4.81 42 0 2 3 1 58 54 6 37 40 .247 Banks went 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in a brief stint with New York at the end of 1997. That didn't seem to be a reliable indicator of how well he would pitch last year, and when he got off to a poor start, Banks was sent to the minors and eventually dealt to Arizona, where he pitched better but walked a lot of batters. Darren Holmes, Middle Relief, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 4.50 57 4 6 6 0 114 120 13 46 99 .273 Prorated NYA 4.50 25 2 3 3 0 50 52 6 20 43 .273 Actual NYA 3.33 34 0 0 3 2 51 53 4 14 31 .270 A refugee from Coors Field, where he'd pitched for five years before escaping with a respectable 4.42 ERA, Holmes had a good season in 1998. He was yet another Yankee pitcher who had the best control of his career last year, and he allowed only one run over his last 17 1/3 innings, a streak that was interrupted for five weeks when he went on the DL in August with a bulging disk in his back. Mike Stanton, Middle Relief, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection NYA 3.58 70 0 4 3 1 73 69 7 32 68 .250 Prorated NYA 3.58 73 0 4 3 1 76 72 7 34 71 .250 Actual NYA 5.47 67 0 4 1 6 79 71 13 26 69 .239 In 1997, Stanton allowed 87 base-runners in 66 2/3 innings and only 19 of them scored. Last year, he permitted 101 batters to reach base in 79 innings and 51 of those scored. So while the number of runners per game actually decreased from 1997 to 1998 (from 11.7 to 11.5), his ERA more than doubled. What happened? Well, part of it was due to his problems with the long-ball. After allowing only 3 homers in 1997, the total jumped to 13 in 1998. But a lot of it was bad luck. Last season, he departed games in mid-inning with 27 of his runners on base; 16 of them scored. The numbers for the year before were 30 and only 7. In short, he wasn't nearly as good as his 2.57 ERA indicated in 1997, or as bad as his 5.47 mark from last year. OutlookSo far this off-season, the Yankees' goal has been to keep the nucleus of their team together and they've succeeded. Cone, Brosius and Williams were all resigned at a cost in excess of $110 million. Unlike the previous World Series winner, this team will stick around to defend its crown. It's difficult to imagine them not making the playoffs again. Their offense should once again be one of the league's best, with some fine young players like Spencer, Ricky Ledee and third-base prospect Mike Lowell ready to step in if any of the veterans are injured or fail to produce. Having a healthy Chili Davis should help, and Knoblauch is likely to bounce back as well. The pitching staff is a bigger question mark. Will Irabu pitch like he did in the first or second half of 1998? Will Pettitte be able to bounce back after his poor finish? How will Hernandez fare the second time around the league? Cone and Wells, the aces on the staff, are on the wrong side of 35, and it's probably not reasonable to expect both of them to have seasons as fine as their last ones. On the other hand, New York could afford to give up an additional 100 runs in 1999 and still win 100 games. Last August, Diamond Mind's Tom Tippett wrote an article pointing out the many similarities between this club and the 1939 Yankees team. The 1939 team set a record that still stands by outscoring its opponents by 411 runs en route to 106-45 record (.702 winning percentage) and a 4-0 sweep in the World Series. The 1998 team finished with a 114-48 record (.704), outscored its opponents by 309 runs, survived two rounds of playoffs, then swept the Padres 4-0 in the series. The 1939 team was almost unchanged going into 1940, with every member of the starting lineup and just about the entire pitching staff returning. Yet they went on to win only 88 games and finish 3rd in the AL, scoring 150 fewer runs and allowing 115 more than the year before. The 1939 team did not stand pat entirely by choice. In a curious chapter of baseball history, the Yankees following that season made no trades, at least in part because the league did not permit it. During the winter meetings following New York's fourth consecutive championship, Senators owner Clark Griffith proposed a rule change prohibiting the AL champion from acquiring any players who hadn't first cleared waivers. It was passed because of a mistaken assumption that the Yankees had been built through a series of shrewd trades. The league seemed a little embarrassed by the rule, and after forcing the Detroit Tigers (who had succeeded New York as AL champions) to operate under the same restriction in 1941, finally repealed it. |
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