1998 Post-Season Review -- Oakland Athletics

By Tom Ruane
January 31, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Oakland Athletics did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            905      804
Runs allowed        969      866
Run Margin          -64      -62
Wins                 72       74
Pythagorean wins     75       75
Placement           4th      4th

Canseco and McGwire had been reunited at the beginning of 1997, but their presence hadn't been enough to keep Oakland out of the AL West cellar. By the start of last year, both of the former Bash Brothers were gone, along with the 118 home runs the two would hit in 1998. Also gone were Oakland's regular catcher, third baseman and centerfielder. In return, the A's had picked up Kenny Rogers, Kurt Abbott and Mike Fetters in trades, and signed free-agents Rickey Henderson, Tom Candiotti, Shane Mack and Mike Blowers. Those veterans, plus such highly touted farm products as Ben Grieve, A.J. Hinch, Scott Spiezio and Jason McDonald gave the A's and their fans cause for optimism as the team headed north for the 1998 season.

Was that optimism well founded? To some degree, yes. In our computer simulations, Oakland was 7 to 10 games better than the year before. And even though they scored and allowed many fewer runs than expected, that's just about where they ended up.

Why the decrease in both runs for and against? Was it an offensive slump offset by stronger pitching? Or the fact that their stadium became much more of a pitchers' park (depressing scoring by 18%) after being almost neutral the previous two seasons? It appears to be some of both, as the park effect is strong enough to account for well over half of the decline, but not quite all of it.

Key Position Players

The A's offense produced 101 fewer runs than expected in 1998. Most of that was due to the trade of Shane Mack, the injury to Dave Magadan, the late season slump of Ben Grieve, and the poor play and subsequent trade of Kurt Abbott. While many players had seasons in line with our expectations, no one did significantly better than predicted.

A.J. Hinch, C, age 24 (as of July 1, 1998)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 359  86 11  0  5  48  43  5  37  0  37  5  0  .240  .319  .312  .631  33
Prorated   OAK 332  80 10  0  5  44  40  5  34  0  34  5  0  .240  .319  .312  .631  31
Actual     OAK 337  78 10  0  9  34  35  4  30  0  89  3  0  .231  .296  .341  .638  37

In his first professional season in 1997, Hinch hit .309 (with a .983 OPS) in A ball and .376 (with a 1.001 OPS in 125 at-bats) at AAA. Based upon those numbers (and his collegiate and Olympic experience), Hinch was slated to play quite a bit with Oakland last year. He ended up both getting as much playing time and hitting as well as expected.

Mike MacFarlane, C, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection KCA  67  16  4  0  3   9   9  2   6  1  13  0  0  .239  .320  .433  .753   9
Actual     KCA  11   1  0  0  0   1   0  0   0  0   2  0  0  .091  .091  .091  .182   0
Prorated   OAK  10   2  1  0  0   1   1  0   1  0   2  0  0  .239  .320  .433  .753   1
Actual     OAK 207  52 12  0  7  28  34  4  12  0  34  1  0  .251  .301  .411  .712  26
Actual     TOT 218  53 12  0  7  29  34  4  12  0  36  1  0  .243  .291  .394  .686  26

After George Williams went down with shoulder surgery before the season, the A's decided they needed a backup catcher more than a fourth outfielder and traded Shane Mack to Kansas City for MacFarlane. Back problems bothered him most of the year and may signal the end of the line for this veteran receiver.

Jason Giambi, 1B, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 540 156 42  1 20  75  82  6  58  3  98  0  1  .289  .360  .481  .842  95
Prorated   OAK 580 167 45  1 21  81  88  6  62  3 105  0  1  .289  .360  .481  .842 102
Actual     OAK 562 166 28  0 27  92 110  5  81  7 102  2  2  .295  .384  .489  .873 107

Giambi took over first base full-time last season, and while he didn't make anyone forget Mark McGwire, he still had a pretty good year. In his first three full major league seasons, he's hit .291, .293 and .295 with slugging percentages of .481, .495 and .489. The two differences between 1998 and the other years were the low doubles totals (it was his first year below 40) and high walk totals (his first year above 60).

Scott Spiezio, 2B, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 611 147 31  3 20  76  86  2  54  5  87  9  5  .241  .302  .399  .701  73
Prorated   OAK 415 100 21  2 14  52  58  1  37  3  59  6  3  .241  .302  .399  .701  50
Actual     OAK 406 105 19  1  9  54  50  2  44  3  56  1  3  .259  .333  .377  .709  51

He tore cartilage in his knee in the middle of June was out until the end of July. While he was healthy, a higher than expected batting average and walk total balanced out weaker power numbers.

Rafael Bournigal, 2B/SS, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 113  27  5  0  0  13   8  1   7  0  10  1  1  .239  .289  .283  .572   9
Prorated   OAK 207  49  9  0  0  24  15  2  13  0  18  2  2  .239  .289  .283  .572  16
Actual     OAK 209  47 11  0  1  23  19  2  10  1  11  6  1  .225  .265  .292  .556  16

The injuries to Abbott and Spiezio got him more playing time than anticipated, but he didn't hit well enough to take advantage of the opportunity and finished with the worst offensive year of his career. He's signed to play with the Pirates in 1999.

Bip Roberts, 2B/DH/CF/LF, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection DET 715 196 34  1  4  92  77  5  46  7 107 28  7  .274  .319  .341  .660  81
Prorated   DET 122  33  6  0  1  16  13  1   8  1  18  5  1  .274  .319  .341  .660  14
Actual     DET 113  28  6  0  0  17   9  2  16  0  14  6  1  .248  .351  .301  .652  13
Actual     OAK 182  51 11  0  1  28  15  2  15  0  24 10  3  .280  .340  .357  .697  23
Actual     TOT 295  79 17  0  1  45  24  4  31  0  38 16  4  .268  .344  .336  .680  36

When Spiezio was injured, Oakland went looking for another second baseman. Meanwhile, Detroit was hoping someone would take Roberts off of their hands. The Tigers were even willing to pay the bulk of his salary just to get rid of him, which was an offer too tempting for the A's to pass up.

Miguel Tejada, SS, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK  69  17  2  1  3   9  10  1   4  0  14  2  1  .246  .293  .435  .728   8
Prorated   OAK 374  92 11  5 16  49  54  5  22  0  76 11  5  .246  .293  .435  .728  45
Actual     OAK 365  85 20  1 11  53  45  7  28  0  86  5  6  .233  .298  .384  .681  40

He broke his finger in spring training and didn't return until the end of May. Both his offense and defense were a disappointment in what the A's hope was a learning experience for this highly-regarded young shortstop.

Kurt Abbott, SS, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 525 144 35  9 17  79  66  4  39  4 149  9  4  .274  .327  .472  .799  79
Prorated   OAK 123  34  8  2  4  18  15  1   9  1  35  2  1  .274  .327  .472  .799  18
Actual     OAK 123  33  7  1  2  17   9  1  10  0  34  2  1  .268  .326  .390  .716  16
Actual     COL  71  18  6  0  3   9  15  1   2  0  19  0  0  .254  .276  .465  .741   9
Actual     TOT 194  51 13  1  5  26  24  2  12  0  53  2  1  .263  .308  .418  .726  25

He was another of the champion Marlins to find himself in new surroundings in 1997. Abbott missed the first two weeks of the season with a sprained wrist and was having a mediocre season at the plate and in the field when he lost his starting job to Tejada in late May. A million dollar a year bench-player was too rich for Oakland's blood and they sold him to the Rockies a short time later.

Mike Blowers, 3B, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 209  58 11  1  7  25  32  0  25  1  51  0  0  .278  .352  .440  .792  32
Prorated   OAK 400 111 21  2 13  48  61  0  48  2  98  0  0  .278  .352  .440  .792  61
Actual     OAK 409  97 24  2 11  56  71  1  39  1 116  1  0  .237  .302  .386  .689  47

The injury to Magadan got him into the lineup regularly. He didn't hit as well as hoped and it looked as though he would head to the bench when Ed Sprague was obtained at the end of July. Sprague hit only .149 for the A's, however, and Blowers found himself back in the lineup.

Dave Magadan, 3B, age 35

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 377 108 19  1  4  51  44  1  70  4  58  1  1  .286  .398  .374  .772  60
Prorated   OAK 102  29  5  0  1  14  12  0  19  1  16  0  0  .286  .398  .374  .772  16
Actual     OAK 109  35  8  0  1  12  13  0  13  1  12  0  1  .321  .390  .422  .812  17

Magadan was the starting third baseman until a sprained right hand put him on the DL in the middle of May. He was originally only expected to miss a couple of games, but he stayed on the disabled list the rest of the season. Magadan signed with the Padres for 1999.

Rickey Henderson, LF/CF, age 39

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 534 137 25  0 10 113  44  8 135  2 106 51 15  .257  .412  .360  .772  96
Prorated   OAK 526 135 25  0 10 111  43  8 133  2 104 50 15  .257  .412  .360  .772  95
Actual     OAK 542 128 16  1 14 101  57  5 118  0 114 66 13  .236  .376  .347  .723  89

He made headlines during the year by becoming the oldest player to lead the major leagues in stolen bases. The favorable stories about his base running, however, could not hide that fact that Henderson had his worst season since his rookie campaign of 1979. Arguably the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history, Henderson is in the twilight of his career. He has now hit under .250 for three seasons in a row, and although his 14 home runs was his most since 1993, his slugging percentage stayed below .350 for the third straight year as well. Even with all his walks and stolen bases, Henderson is no longer an asset at the top of a lineup.

Shane Mack, LF/DH, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 548 169 26  0 13  53  71 13  37  4 100  8  4  .308  .361  .427  .788  85
Prorated   OAK   2   1  0  0  0   0   0  0   0  0   0  0  0  .308  .361  .427  .788   0
Actual     OAK   2   0  0  0  0   1   0  0   0  0   0  0  0  .000  .000  .000  .000   0
Actual     KCA 207  58 15  1  6  30  29  6  15  0  36  8  2  .280  .345  .449  .794  32
Actual     TOT 209  58 15  1  6  31  29  6  15  0  36  8  2  .278  .342  .445  .787  32

We expected Mack to be a regular in the outfield for the A's last season. Oakland preferred McDonald instead and sent Mack packing only a week into the season, trading him to the Royals for MacFarlane.

Ryan Christenson, CF, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     OAK 370  95 22  2  5  56  40  1  36  0 106  5  6  .257  .321  .368  .689  46

We didn't do a projection for him. He had hit well in 1997, but most of that was in the California League and he seemed at least a year away from the majors. A good spring training and injuries to McDonald got him called up instead. His fine defensive play impressed his manager and coaches but he will have to contribute more at the plate to play regularly in the majors.

Jason McDonald, CF/RF/LF, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK  63  14  2  1  1  11   4  1  10  0  13  4  2  .222  .338  .333  .671   8
Prorated   OAK 178  40  6  3  3  31  11  3  28  0  37 11  6  .222  .338  .333  .671  22
Actual     OAK 175  44  9  0  1  25  16  3  27  0  33 10  4  .251  .359  .320  .679  23

He was off to a hot start (17-51) when he went to the DL with a strained groin and missed two weeks. On May 23rd, he suffered a concussion when he collided in the outfield with Henderson and didn't return until August.

Ben Grieve, RF, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 562 162 35  0 29 102 126  8  78  3 119  2  3  .288  .380  .505  .886 111
Prorated   OAK 583 168 36  0 30 106 131  8  81  3 123  2  3  .288  .380  .505  .886 115
Actual     OAK 583 168 41  2 18  94  89  9  85  3 123  2  2  .288  .386  .458  .844 104

The consensus Rookie of the Year before the season began, Grieve hit for a good average and took a lot of walks, but failed to produce as many homers as we projected, mainly due to a slump in the second half. His stats before and after July 1st:

               AB   H  2B  3B  HR RBI    BA   SLG
     Before   311  99  24   2  12  51  .318  .524
     After    272  69  17   0   6  38  .254  .382

Matt Stairs, DH/LF, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection OAK 576 162 32  0 36  91 113  3  71  3 104  3  3  .281  .359  .524  .884 110
Prorated   OAK 518 146 29  0 32  82 102  3  64  3  94  3  3  .281  .359  .524  .884  99
Actual     OAK 523 154 33  1 26  88 106  6  59  4  93  8  3  .294  .370  .511  .880  99

Stairs finally got to play regularly for an entire season, and while he didn't hit home runs at either his 1996 or 1997 rate, he still managed to put together a fine season. He was slowed over the second half by a tendon strain. His average peaked at .337 on July 22nd, but a .240 mark the rest of the way cost him a shot at the batting title and a .300 season.

Key Pitchers

The A's pitchers allowed 103 fewer runs that we thought they would in 1998. For some reason, the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum was much more of a pitchers' park last year that it has been previously, as the Athletics and their opponents scored nearly 22% fewer runs away from Oakland. Or, to flip it around, 18% fewer runs were scored at home (4.56 runs per game for each team) than on the road (5.55 per game). That's a very big difference. During the two previous years, the A's and their opponents had scored only 5% more runs on the road.

In 1997, Oakland gave ten or more starts to nine different pitchers. None of them was particularly impressive, and the leading winner among the group was Ariel Preito with six wins. Last year, by contrast, three starters won 11 or more games, and four-fifths of the rotation stayed intact all season.

Tom Candiotti, Starter, age 40

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection OAK  5.51  32 32   8 11  0  188 220 30  62 115  .294
Prorated   OAK  5.51  34 34   8 12  0  198 232 32  65 121  .294
Actual     OAK  4.84  33 33  11 16  0  201 222 30  63  98  .281

We were pessimistic about Candiotti's chances last year, despite the fact that he hadn't pitched all that badly in 1997, and we weren't too far off. He probably ought to consider skipping road trips from now on. In 1998, he had a 3.64 ERA at home and a 6.64 mark on the road. Despite that, his won-loss record in enemy parks (4-6) was almost the same as his record at home (7-10).

Kenny Rogers, Starter, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection OAK  4.52  32 32   9 11  0  191 198 20  80 111  .270
Prorated   OAK  4.52  37 37  10 13  0  223 231 23  93 129  .270
Actual     OAK  3.17  34 34  16  8  0  239 215 19  67 138  .242

Rogers surprised many people (including the Yankees) by bouncing back from two miserable years in New York to put together the best season of his career in 1998. The swap of Brosius for Rogers was an example of a trade that truly helped both teams, as Brosius made a strong comeback for New York as well. Like Candiotti, Rogers preferred home cooking, going 11-0 with a 1.96 ERA in Oakland compared to a 5-8 mark and 4.46 ERA on the road. He had a right to demand a trade following the season, but wisely decided to pitch half his 1999 games at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum instead.

Jimmy Haynes, Starter, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection OAK  5.51  32 32  10 12  0  180 207 23 103 163  .290
Prorated   OAK  5.51  34 34  11 13  0  189 218 24 108 171  .290
Actual     OAK  5.09  33 33  11  9  0  194 229 25  88 134  .298

Haynes slumped badly down the stretch, posting a 8.06 ERA from the middle of August to the end of the season. Before that bad finish he had a 8-5 record and a 4.29 ERA.

Mike Oquist, Starter, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection OAK  5.09   4  4   1  2  0   23  26  3  10  17  .286
Prorated   OAK  5.09  30 30   7 15  0  172 194 22  75 127  .286
Actual     OAK  6.22  31 29   7 11  0  175 210 27  57 112  .298

Oquist never pitched more--or worse--than he did last year. He was almost helpless on the road, going 2-7 with a 7.79 ERA. One of the biggest difference between large and small market teams is their depth, and the fact that Oakland gave 49 starts to Oquist and Blake Stein is an example of this. He was not offered a 1999 contract by the A's and won't be back.

Ariel Prieto, Starter, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection OAK  5.47  32 32   8 12  0  183 213 19  92 135  .295
Prorated   OAK  5.47   2  2   0  1  0   10  12  1   5   8  .295
Actual     OAK 11.88   2  2   0  1  0    8  17  2   5   8  .415

Prieto was one of our picks for Oakland's starting rotation last season, but the A's sent him down for good after two poor April outings. He pitched well at AAA, but missed a lot of time with tendinitis.

Blake Stein, Starter, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     OAK  6.37  24 20   5  9  0  117 117 22  71  89  .255

Stein was one of the players picked up in the McGwire deal and we didn't think he'd see any action last year after posting a 4.54 ERA at AA in 1997. He went 3-1 at AAA and got the call in early May after Prieto was sent down. Stein was strong in his first two starts, but it was downhill after that. There's a record somewhere for just about everyone and Stein's 8 strikeouts in his first game against the White Sox on May 10th set the A's record for most strikeouts by a rookie in his first start.

He was another reason for the Coliseum's turning into a pitchers' park in 1998. He had a 3.97 home ERA (including a complete game 2-hit shut-out on August 19th) and a 8.79 road ERA (including a game on August 31st in Cleveland where he allowed eight earned runs without retiring a single batter).

Brad Rigby, Starter, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection OAK  5.44  27 27   7  9  0  147 175 23  49  84  .298

We had him pencilled in as a fifth-starter in 1998, but he sprained his lower back in March and spent the year in the minors instead. He went 5-6 with a 5.94 ERA in AAA.

Billy Taylor, Closer, age 36

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection OAK  3.67  70  0   4  5 28   74  69  4  29  75  .249
Prorated   OAK  3.67  69  0   4  5 28   73  68  4  29  74  .249
Actual     OAK  3.58  70  0   4  9 33   73  71  7  22  58  .255

Taylor gives new meaning to the term late bloomer. He didn't reach the major leagues until his 15th professional season, when he was a 32 year-old rookie. He's been the A's closer for three seasons now, and became their first pitcher with 30 saves since Eckersley (who was also 32 years old when he started his major league relieving career).

Taylor bucked a trend among Oakland pitchers and was much more effective on the road (20 saves and a 2.89 ERA) than at home.

Mike Fetters, Middle Relief, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection OAK  3.77  70  0   5  4 37   98  96  7  42  88  .259
Prorated   OAK  3.77  36  0   3  2 19   50  49  4  21  45  .259
Actual     OAK  3.99  48  0   1  6  5   47  48  3  21  34  .258
Actual     ANA  5.56  12  0   1  2  0   11  14  2   4   9  .304
Actual     TOT  4.30  60  0   2  8  5   59  62  5  25  43  .268

Newcomer Fetters, picked up from Cleveland in the offseason in a trade for Steve Karsay, was expected to be the club's closer in 1998, replacing Billy Taylor. He strained his left calf after two games and missed three weeks. He pitched about as well as expected for Oakland, but never regained the closer's job and was dealt to Anaheim in August.

Outlook

GM Billy Beane hasn't been able to do much to improve the club during the offseason. Henderson, Magadan and Sprague are gone and the two free agent signees, Tony Phillips and Doug Jones, are 39 and 41 years old. It's not clear what the A's have in mind for Phillips. He looked washed up during his stint with the Mets last year, and with a single stolen base in 1998, won't exactly be replacing Henderson's speed in Oakland.

On the other hand, the Athletics have one of baseball's top prospects at third base in Eric Chavez, and have promising young players already on the roster at catcher, second, short and right field. Their pitching staff looks weak, however, and many of the key hurlers (like Candiotti and Taylor) are old. Better times may be ahead for Oakland, but they are not likely to start until the new century.