Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- Philadelphia Phillies By Tom Tippett This article takes a look at how the Philadelphia Phillies did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 669 713 Runs allowed 793 808 Run Margin -124 -95 Wins 69 75 Pythagorean wins 67 71 Placement 4th 4th You may recall that Philadelphia had a very strong second half in 1997, tying the Braves for the NL lead in wins after the all-star break. Some believed this was a sign of a team on the rise, but our projections -- which look at performance over three years, not three months -- weren't quite so optimistic. After all, this very club was a horrendous 24-61 before the break in 1997, so how good could they be? As it turned out, the offense was more productive than it appeared it would be and the pitching staff was (as expected) near the bottom of the league. So they did make some progress. In 1997, they were outscored by 172 runs, and they narrowed that gap to 95 in 1998. That's no small feat. But they'll need to make a similar improvement in 1999 just to get to .500. Key Position PlayersThe Phils scored 44 more runs than expected, with Scott Rolen and Bob Abreu accounting for all of the increase and then some, overcoming unusually weak hitting from the catching corps (Leiberthal, Estallela, Parent) and 2B Mark Lewis. Even though Rolen was expected to be the top hitter in the lineup, he managed to create 19 more runs than projected, thanks to a surge from the 20-homer level to a season total of 31. And after a couple of mediocre seasons, Abreu finally started hitting like he had in the minor leagues a couple of years ago. The rest of the starters (Jefferies, Brogna, Glanville, Relaford) had seasons that were in line with our forecasts. Mike Lieberthal, C, age 26 (as of July 1, 1998)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 481 121 28 1 21 63 79 5 48 1 77 2 4 .252 .321 .445 .766 68 Prorated PHI 303 76 18 1 13 40 50 3 30 1 48 1 3 .252 .321 .445 .766 43 Actual PHI 313 80 15 3 8 39 45 7 17 1 44 2 1 .256 .304 .399 .703 39 Failed to build on a 20 HR season in 1997. He suffered with a sore right elbow early in the season and went on the DL in July with a problem with his pelvic area in July. His drop in walks worries me more than his decline in power. The power could return with good health, but he won't get much to hit if he doesn't show a little more patience at the plate. Bobby Estalella, C, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 66 15 4 0 3 9 10 1 8 0 16 0 0 .227 .320 .424 .744 9 Prorated PHI 160 36 10 0 7 22 24 2 19 0 39 0 0 .227 .320 .424 .744 22 Actual PHI 165 31 6 1 8 16 20 1 13 0 49 0 0 .188 .247 .382 .629 15 His power is real. With 14 homers in 211 major-league ABs and 33 homers in his last 675 ABs at AAA, that's not in doubt. And although he's only had one season above .250 at AA or higher, he's been getting on base (66 walks in a half-season at AAA in 1998). This suggests a developing hitter with lots of potential. Mark Parent, C, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 71 14 3 0 3 6 8 0 4 0 21 0 0 .197 .240 .366 .606 6 Prorated PHI 119 24 5 0 5 10 13 0 7 0 35 0 0 .197 .240 .366 .606 10 Actual PHI 113 25 4 0 1 7 13 0 10 0 30 1 1 .221 .278 .283 .561 10 Didn't hit much, but that's no surprise. His career batting average is even lower. Separated his shoulder in September and was later diagnosed with a torn labrum in that shoulder. Not something a catcher wants to hear. Parent is a free agent and hasn't yet signed with anyone for 1999. Rico Brogna, 1B, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 612 158 39 1 24 78 94 1 44 5 136 5 5 .258 .307 .443 .749 80 Prorated PHI 577 149 37 1 23 74 89 1 41 5 128 5 5 .258 .307 .443 .749 75 Actual PHI 565 150 36 3 20 77 104 0 49 8 125 7 7 .265 .319 .446 .765 78 It was reported that he made an effort to bulk up over the winter, but it had no apparent effect. The RBIs notwithstanding, his season was right in line with his established level of performance. Mark Lewis, 2B, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 545 151 31 7 12 74 62 6 40 2 103 5 2 .277 .331 .426 .757 77 Prorated PHI 529 146 30 7 12 72 60 6 39 2 100 5 2 .277 .331 .426 .757 75 Actual PHI 518 129 21 2 9 52 54 3 48 2 111 3 3 .249 .312 .349 .661 55 Lewis, who will be with the Reds in 1999, was never able to make up for a slow start that left him under .200 at the end of May. He ran very hot and cold, with three months of sub-.200 hitting mixed in with three months over .300. Scott Rolen, 3B, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 526 151 37 2 18 81 82 10 70 3 116 12 7 .287 .377 .468 .845 96 Prorated PHI 610 175 43 2 21 94 95 12 81 3 135 14 8 .287 .377 .468 .845 112 Actual PHI 601 174 45 4 31 120 110 11 93 6 141 14 7 .290 .391 .532 .923 131 Rolen, the NL Rookie of the Year in 1997, joined his AL counterpart (Garciaparra) in laying waste to the notion of a sophomore slump. All this and he's a terrific fielder, too. Desi Relaford, SS, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 535 117 25 2 9 62 48 5 38 1 84 24 7 .219 .274 .323 .598 49 Prorated PHI 496 108 23 2 8 57 44 5 35 1 78 22 6 .219 .274 .323 .598 45 Actual PHI 494 121 25 3 5 45 41 3 33 4 87 9 5 .245 .293 .338 .631 49 Well, .245 may not be such a great average, but it was still a pleasant surprise. Coming into 1998, Relaford had a career average of .179 (14 for 78) in the big leagues and .238 at AAA. He'll have to improve to be an asset as a hitter, and his minor-league record doesn't provide much evidence that he'll be able to do that. Kevin Jordan, PH/IF, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 93 24 5 0 2 11 13 1 3 0 13 0 0 .258 .286 .376 .662 10 Prorated PHI 248 64 13 0 5 29 35 3 8 0 35 0 0 .258 .286 .376 .662 26 Actual PHI 250 69 13 0 2 23 27 2 8 1 30 0 0 .276 .303 .352 .655 26 Played a lot more than expected, mostly at 1B and 2B, and his overall rate of production was right at his normal level. Looks like he'll hang around for a few more years as a utility player, but doesn't walk nearly enough or hit for enough power to earn a bigger role than that. Gregg Jefferies, LF, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 577 154 29 3 12 82 62 2 58 8 33 16 7 .267 .334 .390 .724 75 Prorated PHI 469 125 24 2 10 67 50 2 47 7 27 13 6 .267 .334 .390 .724 61 Actual PHI 483 142 22 3 8 65 48 1 29 4 27 11 3 .294 .331 .402 .733 61 Actual ANA 72 25 6 0 1 7 10 0 0 0 5 1 0 .347 .347 .472 .819 11 Actual TOT 555 167 28 3 9 72 58 1 29 4 32 12 3 .301 .333 .411 .744 72 His batting average was well above expectations, but his walks and power were down, and his overall production was near his established level. If it seems like he's been around forever, it's because he has. A highly touted prospect in the Mets organization, Jefferies made his debut as a 20-year-old in 1987, and has never quite lived up to the hype. His career batting average (.292) is good, but his on-base and slugging percentages are very near the league averages, and he's been playing positions (1B, LF) where more offense is expected. Wendell Magee, LF, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 69 16 4 0 2 7 8 0 5 0 12 1 1 .232 .280 .377 .657 7 Prorated PHI 75 17 4 0 2 8 9 0 5 0 13 1 1 .232 .280 .377 .657 7 Actual PHI 75 22 6 1 1 9 11 0 7 0 11 0 0 .293 .354 .440 .794 11 Magee hadn't done much in two trials with the Phillies in 1996-7, but he had a good year at AAA in 1998 (.290, 24 HR, .519 SPC) and capped it off with 75 solid ABs with the big club. Doug Glanville, CF, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 639 183 35 6 5 93 50 2 26 0 67 22 12 .286 .314 .383 .697 76 Prorated PHI 687 197 38 6 5 100 54 2 28 0 72 24 13 .286 .314 .383 .697 82 Actual PHI 678 189 28 7 8 106 49 6 42 1 89 23 6 .279 .325 .376 .701 87 You may recall that Lenny Dykstra was upset in March because the Phillies didn't hand him the starting CF job. When Dykstra chose to retire a week or two later, it didn't change our forecast for the Phillies one bit, because we had Glanville pencilled into our starting lineup all along. Doug batted .300 for the Cubs in 1997 and was at .313 at the break in 1998, but a poor second half (.238, 21 BB, 2 HR) brought him near his full-season projections. He was below the league average in on-base percentage, so he wasn't an asset in the leadoff spot. Bob Abreu, RF, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 581 134 20 10 15 83 72 2 76 5 150 20 15 .231 .319 .377 .696 72 Prorated PHI 514 119 18 9 13 73 64 2 67 4 133 18 13 .231 .319 .377 .696 63 Actual PHI 497 155 29 6 17 68 74 0 84 14 133 19 10 .312 .409 .497 .906 106 Scott Rolen had a better season, but no Phillie had a bigger upside surprise than Abreu. He had struggled a little in 1996-7, then broke out in 1998 with numbers he hadn't seen since a very good AAA season three years ago. He's never hit more than 17 homers in any pro season, but he appears capable of hitting .300 with plenty of walks and modest power, making him a hitter much like Mark Grace, though with a little more homerun potential. Kevin Sefcik, PH/OF, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 80 23 4 1 1 9 5 1 4 0 8 2 1 .288 .326 .400 .726 10 Prorated PHI 186 54 9 2 2 21 12 2 9 0 19 5 2 .288 .326 .400 .726 24 Actual PHI 169 53 7 2 3 27 20 7 25 0 32 4 2 .314 .421 .432 .853 33 Sefcik hits well enough and plays enough positions to be a very useful utility player. He set career highs in most every category, partly because he had a good year, and partly because it's the first time he's ever been given more than 119 atbats. Ruben Amaro, PH/OF, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 67 16 3 0 1 8 7 2 6 0 10 1 1 .239 .320 .328 .648 7 Prorated PHI 105 25 5 0 2 12 11 3 9 0 16 2 2 .239 .320 .328 .648 11 Actual PHI 107 20 5 0 1 7 10 0 6 0 15 0 0 .187 .224 .262 .486 7 Although Amaro has been in the majors for eight years, he's had only 927 atbats. With a career average of .235 and below-average power, he's been limited to a utility role except for one season early in his career. Rex Hudler, PH/OF, age 37AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection PHI 111 30 7 1 4 17 12 1 3 0 21 4 1 .270 .296 .459 .755 15 Prorated PHI 43 12 3 0 2 7 5 0 1 0 8 2 0 .270 .296 .459 .755 6 Actual PHI 41 5 1 0 0 2 2 0 4 0 12 0 0 .122 .200 .146 .346 1 Announced his retirement after the season. The most noteworthy stat in his career totals -- 77 walks in 13 seasons. He had a little speed and a little pop in his bat, and hit .311 with 16 homers as recently as 1996, but it's hard to build a career around a .261 average and almost no walks. Key PitchersThe Phillies finished 14th in the NL in team ERA, allowing 15 more runs than projected. It's not a stretch to describe this as a one-man pitching staff. Curt Schilling remained one of the best starting pitchers in the game, but he got almost no help. Except for a surprising performance from Paul Byrd (5-2, 2.68, in 8 starts), no other starter had an ERA below the league average, and only one (Mark Portugal) was under 5.00. And the bullpen was among the worst in the league despite unusually good seasons from Spradlin, Gomes, Perez and Leiter. Curt Schilling, Starter, age 31 (as of July 1, 1998)ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 3.21 32 32 13 9 0 221 189 24 57 255 .231 Prorated PHI 3.21 39 39 16 11 0 269 230 29 69 310 .231 Actual PHI 3.25 35 35 15 14 0 269 236 23 61 300 .236 Entered the season with the expectation of carrying this staff, and that's exactly what he did. He's been a workhorse and a very consistent performer. It's no wonder that every contending team in baseball wants to trade for him, and it's no wonder the Phillies don't want to let him go. Mike Grace, Starter, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 4.48 32 32 11 11 0 195 204 14 61 129 .271 Prorated PHI 4.48 16 16 6 6 0 98 102 7 31 65 .271 Actual PHI 5.48 21 15 4 7 0 90 116 10 30 46 .312 Grace has battled injuries ever since making his big-league debut in 1995, making only 20 starts in his first three seasons. He pitched quite well, however, and his career ERA was 3.45 before this season began. His projection was a full run higher, however because he had struggled in the minors during that time. In 1998, he was hit harder than ever and was demoted to AAA in June. He was no better there (5.04 ERA in ten starts). Mark Portugal, Starter, age 35ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 4.52 32 32 8 10 0 165 172 20 49 91 .269 Prorated PHI 4.52 32 32 8 10 0 165 172 20 49 91 .269 Actual PHI 4.44 26 26 10 5 0 166 186 26 32 104 .283 A solid but unspectacular season from this veteran hurler. Portugal missed several starts after having knee surgery in April, then struggled on his return before posting a 3.69 ERA and a 7-3 record after the break. On the basis of that second half, Red Sox GM Dan Duquette signed him for 1999, but I'm afraid might be in for a disappointment. Yes, Portugal had good control, but he also allowed 113 hits in 102 innings in that span. If that's his best, what's he going to do in a hitter's park and a DH league? Garrett Stephenson, Starter, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 4.96 32 32 10 12 0 189 196 26 75 143 .268 Prorated PHI 4.96 5 5 1 2 0 27 28 4 11 20 .268 Actual PHI 9.00 6 6 0 2 0 23 31 3 19 17 .316 Was unable to follow up on an impressive 1997 campaign in which he was 8-6, 3.15. That's not much of a surprise, actually, as his ERA in AAA was around 5.00 in 1996-7. Last season, he was sent down to AAA after allowing 50 baserunners in 23 innings. In AAA Scranton, he got his control back (16 walks in 74 innings) but was tattooed for 15 homers and a 5.25 ERA. Was traded to the Cardinals after the season. Matt Beech, Starter, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 5.03 27 27 7 10 0 159 169 28 57 149 .271 Prorated PHI 5.03 20 20 5 8 0 121 128 21 43 113 .271 Actual PHI 5.15 21 21 3 9 0 117 126 19 63 113 .275 Came into 1998 with a career ERA of 5.51 and was able to improve on that only a little. All of his success has been at AA or below. He's only had 7 starts above the AA level and hasn't been all that effective either in AAA or the majors. And the news gets worse. He had reconstructive surgery on his pitching elbow in September and is expected to miss most of 1999. Tyler Green, Starter, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 5.19 21 4 1 3 0 50 54 8 24 32 .277 Prorated PHI 5.19 66 12 3 9 0 157 169 25 75 100 .277 Actual PHI 5.03 27 27 6 12 0 159 142 23 85 113 .239 Green's ERA obscures the fact that he had his best ratio of hits to innings in several years. But he's still walking too many and giving up too many homers. Now has a career ERA of 5.16 in 68 starts, so he's running out of time to prove that he can be a good pitcher. Carlton Loewer, Starter, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Actual PHI 6.09 21 21 7 8 0 123 154 18 39 58 .312 A dozen strong starts (7-3, 2.87) in AAA earned him a promotion when Grace was sent down. He has always had good control but has a history of allowing more hits than innings, even in the low minors. Paul Byrd, Starter, age 27ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection ATL 3.82 44 4 4 4 0 78 71 9 28 59 .245 Prorated ATL 3.82 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 1 2 .245 Actual ATL 13.50 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 1 1 .400 Actual PHI 2.29 8 8 5 2 0 55 41 6 17 38 .204 Actual TOT 2.68 9 8 5 2 0 57 45 6 18 39 .213 How should we evaluate his Clemens-like performance in eight starts with the Phillies? With some caution, I think. The good news is that he also pitched pretty well in 17 AAA starts (5-5, 3.69) last year. Coming into 1998, his career ERA was 4.29, which is not that great for a relief pitcher. While he may just be better suited to starting, I think it's more reasonable to assume that an ERA in the high 3's is a better bet for 1999. Wayne Gomes, Long reliever, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 4.91 23 0 2 2 0 29 31 3 22 25 .274 Prorated PHI 4.91 68 0 6 6 0 87 92 9 65 74 .274 Actual PHI 4.24 71 0 9 6 1 93 94 9 35 86 .258 This was the first time in his career that he walked fewer than one batter every two innings. As a result, he was a useful long reliever in 1998, and can expect to play a meaningful role as long as he's able to maintain this newfound mastery of the strike zone. Jerry Spradlin, Middle reliever, age 31ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 5.27 70 0 3 4 1 70 81 10 25 59 .289 Prorated PHI 5.27 71 0 3 4 1 71 82 10 25 60 .289 Actual PHI 3.53 69 0 4 4 1 82 63 9 20 76 .216 Spradlin had a very good 1998, and now finds himself with a contender, having been dealt to Cleveland for Chad Ogea after the season. Can he sustain it? It's hard to say, as this was Spradlin's first good season since 1993 and he's only had 221 major-league innings through age 31. Perhaps he's a late bloomer. Or perhaps the Phillies were wise to trade him when his value had peaked. Time will tell. Yorkis Perez, Middle reliever, age 30ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 5.22 70 0 4 5 1 91 102 11 52 98 .283 Prorated PHI 5.22 37 0 2 3 1 48 54 6 27 52 .283 Actual PHI 3.81 57 0 0 2 0 52 40 3 25 42 .209 Another Phillies reliever who stepped up in 1998. Now with his fourth team, Perez has generally held batters to a low average but has never demonstrated good control (104 walks in 200 career innings). Still, when he has a good year, he's a useful guy to have around. Ken Ryan, Middle reliever, age 29ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 4.76 23 0 1 1 0 23 24 2 13 18 .273 Prorated PHI 4.76 24 0 1 1 0 24 25 2 14 19 .273 Actual PHI 4.37 17 1 0 0 0 23 21 1 20 16 .253 Ryan broke in with the Red Sox in 1992 and by 1994 had won the closer job. An off year in 1995 convinced the Sox to trade Ryan to Philly for Heathcliff Slocumb, and Ryan responded with a terrific 1996 as Ricky Bottalico's setup man. His arm gave out in 1997, however, and he spent about a year on the DL trying before coming back for the second half of the 1998 season. If he can stay healthy and regain his control (which was never all that good to begin with), he could return to a prominent role in the Phillies bullpen. Ricky Bottalico, Closer, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 3.30 70 0 5 5 32 74 59 7 37 84 .220 Prorated PHI 3.30 46 0 3 3 21 48 39 5 24 55 .220 Actual PHI 6.44 39 0 1 5 6 43 54 7 25 27 .305 Was one of the NL's best setup men in 1995 and a top closer in 1996, but he's been giving ground since then. Although he saved 34 games in 1997, he allowed 110 runners in 74 innings that year. Things got much worse in 1998, as he struggled early and then had surgery to remove a bone chip in his elbow in late April. Doctors said this would restore his range of motion and allow him to return to his 1995-6 form, but it didn't happen in 1998, as he continued to be hit hard after his return. If he bounces back, it'll happen in St. Louis, where he was traded after the season. Mark Leiter, Closer, age 35ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection PHI 5.56 44 4 4 7 0 91 104 14 30 71 .289 Prorated PHI 5.56 41 4 4 7 0 85 97 13 28 66 .289 Actual PHI 3.55 69 0 7 5 23 89 67 8 47 84 .216 Leiter's projection reflects the fact he was hit pretty hard as a starting pitcher from 1995 to 1997. And he was getting worse during that period. In 1998, he spent the entire year in the bullpen and inherited the closer role when Bottalico underwent surgery. He got a lot of press while picking up 23 saves, and it was enough to convince the Mariners to trade for him after the season. I hope the Mariners know what they're doing, because Leiter is getting up in years and was merely ok by closer standards (114 runners in 89 innings, only 23 saves in 35 opportunities). It'll be tougher now that he's in a DH league and a good hitter's park. OutlookThe Phillies made a lot of changes after the season. Among the players lost to free agency were 2B Mark Lewis (Cincinnati), SP Mark Portugal (Boston), and Mark Parent (unsigned). A five-player deal with St. Louis brought Ron Gant, Jeff Brantley, and Cliff Politte for Ricky Bottalico and Garrett Stephenson. Jerry Spradlin was sent to Cleveland for Chad Ogea. Paul Spoljaric came over from Seattle for Mark Leiter. OF Rob Ducey, RP Jim Poole, and C Tom Prince were signed as free agents. The club will be younger in 1999, but will it be better? There's not a lot of room for Rolen and Abreu to improve on their 1998 efforts, though I certainly wouldn't assume that Rolen has peaked already. They should get a little more offense out of the catcher position. They're likely to be a little better at 2B, where they've cleared the way for Marlon Anderson (.306 with 16 homers and 24 steals in AAA) to become the starter. Ron Gant's power in LF will be a welcome addition. And it's possible that top draft pick 1B Pat Burrell could arrive on the scene very quickly. Overall, I'd say they should be OK offensively. The pitching is another question. To become respectable, they need another big year from Schilling, solid contributions from Byrd and Ogea, and a big step forward from Loewer. There don't appear to be any youngsters in the system who are ready to contribute right away. The bullpen has been rebuilt, but may not be any better. They began with the third-worst bullpen ERA in the 1998 NL, then subtracted two of their more effective pitchers (Spradlin and Leiter) plus their one-time closer (Bottalico). If Brantley, Poole and Spoljaric bounce back from their poor 1998 campaigns, and if Ryan is healthy and throwing well, they could improve. But those are a lot of ifs. In a recent edition of Total Baseball Daily, Gary Gillette pointed out that while Philadelphia is often lumped in with the small-market or mid-market clubs when team finances are being discussed, it shouldn't be. The Philadelphia metropolitan area is the largest in the country with only one team (New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago each have two), so there's little excuse for failing to put a competitive team on the field. If the franchise is managed and marketed effectively, the revenue should be there to support a payroll in the upper third of the league. |
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