1998 Post-Season Review -- Pittsburgh Pirates

By Tom Ruane
February 19, 1998

This article takes a look at how the Pittsburgh Pirates did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            735      650
Runs allowed        891      718
Run Margin         -156      -68
Wins                 65       69
Pythagorean wins     66       73
Placement           6th      6th

Pittsburgh was one of the surprise teams in 1997. Saddled with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, they somehow managed to stay in contention in a weak division before fading down the stretch. It was a young team (no starter, either on the field or the mound, was over 30) and there was a lot of hope in Pittsburgh that better things lay ahead in 1998. For a small market team, they had minor losses in the offseason. Joe Randa, their regular third-baseman, had been picked by Arizona in the expansion draft and Steve Cooke, the fifth starter, had been released in December, but the team was returning relatively intact.

Despite the optimism surrounding the team, we thought they'd pay a price for standing pat, and that while their offense would be about as good as it had been the year before, the pitching staff would be a lot worse, causing them to drop from 79 to 65 wins. While our win projection was pretty close, we were wrong about the particulars: the pitching was actually even better in 1998 -- it was the offense that was dreadful.

Key Position Players

The Pirates scored 85 fewer runs than predicted. Poor years by Al Martin, Kevin Polcovich and Doug Strange were to blame for most of this drop-off, and except for a hot month by Freddie Garcia, Jason Kendall was the only Pittsburgh hitter to do much better than we thought he would.

Jason Kendall, C, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT 582 173 40  4  9  87  64 30  57  7  51 16  6  .297  .385  .426  .811 101
Prorated   PIT 538 160 37  4  8  80  59 28  53  6  47 15  6  .297  .385  .426  .811  93
Actual     PIT 535 175 36  3 12  95  75 31  51  3  51 26  5  .327  .411  .473  .884 115

Kendall continued to improve all facets of his offense last year, setting career highs in every major offensive category except triples. This is the second year in a row that he has improved both his on-base and slugging percentages. Kendall's 26 stolen bases were a National League record for catchers. The last catcher who could run that well was Craig Biggio and I wonder if, like Biggio, Kendall might eventually move to a less demanding defensive position.

Kevin Young, 1B, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT 609 167 35  3 31  91 122  6  34  3 156 15  5  .274  .314  .494  .808  94
Prorated   PIT 604 166 35  3 31  90 121  6  34  3 155 15  5  .274  .314  .494  .808  93
Actual     PIT 592 160 40  2 27  88 108 11  44  1 127 15  7  .270  .328  .481  .809  89

Young had entered 1997 with a .235 batting average and proceed to surprise the Pirates by hitting .300 with a .535 slugging percentage. We didn't think he'd match that success last year and, despite some impressive looking extra-base hit totals and RBIs, he was a slightly below average hitting first baseman.

Tony Womack, 2B, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT 613 164 23  9  4  80  45  3  39  1  99 49 10  .268  .314  .354  .668  75
Prorated   PIT 650 174 24 10  4  85  48  3  41  1 105 52 11  .268  .314  .354  .668  79
Actual     PIT 655 185 26  7  3  85  45  0  38  1  94 58  8  .282  .319  .357  .677  84

Womack hit almost exactly as expected in 1998, which is to say he was one of the worst hitting second basemen in baseball. Among the 26 players at that position with 400 or more at-bats last year, only three had a lower OPS than Womack. He steals a lot of bases (with a great success rate) and his batting average is pretty good, but he has no power and seldom walks, and probably shouldn't be chewing up outs at the top of a lineup.

Curiously enough, the Pirates are thinking of turning Womack into a centerfielder, where his offensive shortcomings will hurt the team even more. A better move would be to trade Womack while his stock is still high -- certainly before he is put into the outfield and turns into a left-handed version of Brian Hunter.

Kevin Polcovich, SS/2B, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT 589 148 32  1  8  77  55 21  34  5  95  8  9  .251  .313  .350  .663  61
Prorated   PIT 214  54 12  0  3  28  20  8  12  2  35  3  3  .251  .313  .350  .663  22
Actual     PIT 212  40 12  0  0  18  14  5  15  2  33  4  3  .189  .255  .245  .501  13

Polcovich was expected to be the Bucs' regular shortstop in 1998, but he failed to hit at all and lost his job to Lou Collier.

Lou Collier, SS, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT  68  17  3  0  0   8   6  1   4  0  10  2  1  .250  .297  .294  .591   6
Prorated   PIT 344  86 15  0  0  40  30  5  20  0  51 10  5  .250  .297  .294  .591  30
Actual     PIT 334  82 13  6  2  30  34  6  31  6  70  2  2  .246  .316  .338  .655  36

He ended up playing more because of Polcovich's poor hitting and did somewhat better than projected. Collier hit .330 at the AAA level in 1997, and although he did it in the Pacific Coast League where offensive totals are inflated, he should be able to improve his hitting to a point where it's no longer a liability. If he does, it will be for the Brewers, who recently picked up Collier on waivers.

Doug Strange, 3B/2B, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT 413 101 19  3 12  48  54  3  38  7  86  1  2  .245  .311  .392  .703  50
Prorated   PIT 180  44  8  1  5  21  24  1  17  3  37  0  1  .245  .311  .392  .703  22
Actual     PIT 185  32  8  0  0   8  14  1  10  1  39  1  0  .173  .217  .216  .433   9

Strange was expected to be the regular third baseman but he hit very poorly and lost his job at the end of May. He injured his ankle at the beginning of July and missed four weeks, but by that time he was no longer playing much anyway.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, age 20

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     PIT 251  59  9  1  6  23  24  4  18  0  72  0  1  .235  .296  .351  .646  27

Ramirez had never played above A level prior to 1998. He was slated for a full year of seasoning at the AAA level, but got called up on May 26th, nearly a month before his 20th birthday, when Strange failed to hit. He didn't get off to a great start either, going 0 for 24 before getting his first major league hit, a bases-loaded double. He hurt his shoulder in August and missed four weeks. Garcia played very well in his absence and the job would appear to be up for grabs in 1999.

One of my favorite stats from last year: when Ramirez hit his third home run on June 16th, he broke the Pirate record for most homers as a teen-ager. The previous mark of two had been set by Bill Mazeroski and Lee Walls. I bet you didn't even know they kept track of things like that.

Freddy Garcia, 3B, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT 202  42  7  1 11  25  27  3   8  2  44  0  0  .208  .245  .416  .661  19
Prorated   PIT 180  38  6  1 10  22  24  3   7  2  39  0  0  .208  .245  .416  .661  17
Actual     PIT 172  44 11  1  9  27  26  2  18  3  45  0  2  .256  .332  .488  .820  27

Garcia started the season with Pittsburgh but was sent to the minors at the end of April and didn't return until August. He hit .167 (9-54 with a .620 OPS) before his demotion, but .297 (with a .910 OPS) after his recall. Considering his fine performance at AAA last year (22 home runs in 326 at-bats), Garcia's late-season showing is probably not a fluke.

Al Martin, LF, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT 579 164 35  4 16  89  68  3  55  6 109 30 11  .283  .346  .440  .786  91
Prorated   PIT 431 122 26  3 12  66  51  2  41  4  81 22  8  .283  .346  .440  .786  68
Actual     PIT 440 105 15  2 12  57  47  5  32  2  91 20  3  .239  .296  .364  .660  47

Martin had a terrible season in 1998. No regular left-fielder in baseball hit as poorly as he did last year, and while Martin has never had enough power or walks to be considered one of the league's better hitting outfielders, at least he had been consistent before. His batting averages in his five full seasons prior to 1998, had never been lower than .281 or higher than .300. He blamed part of his poor performance last year on trade rumors that circulated around him much of June. He hit only .159 during that month, but he didn't do much better the rest of the year. He missed all of September with a strained a muscle in his side.

Jermaine Allensworth, CF/RF, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT 497 131 25  6  7  79  53  9  53  3 100 22 10  .264  .342  .380  .722  69
Prorated   PIT 227  60 11  3  3  36  24  4  24  1  46 10  5  .264  .342  .380  .722  31
Actual     PIT 233  72 13  3  3  30  24  7  17  0  43  8  4  .309  .372  .429  .801  39
Actual     KCA  73  15  5  0  0  15   3  4   9  0  17  7  0  .205  .326  .274  .600   9
Actual     NYN  54  11  2  0  2   9   4  1   2  0  16  0  2  .204  .246  .352  .597   4
Actual     TOT 360  98 20  3  5  54  31 12  28  0  76 15  6  .272  .344  .386  .730  52

He got off to a fast start and was still hitting quite a bit better than expected when he was traded to the Royals in June for Manuel Bernal, a 21 year-old pitcher in the Mexican League. He left his hot bat behind in Pittsburgh, however, and by the end of the year, he was right where we thought he'd be all along.

Manny Martinez, CF/LF, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     PIT 180  45 11  2  6  21  24  2   9  0  44  0  3  .250  .290  .433  .723  21

Despite hitting .331 at AAA in 1997, we didn't think he'd see much action in the Pittsburgh outfield last year. He got called up in early May and played quite a bit following the Allensworth trade.

Turner Ward, CF/LF/RF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT  87  25  6  1  3  13  13  1   8  0  12  2  0  .287  .354  .483  .837  16
Prorated   PIT 291  84 20  3 10  43  43  3  27  0  40  7  0  .287  .354  .483  .837  52
Actual     PIT 282  74 13  3  9  33  46  4  27  1  40  5  4  .262  .328  .426  .754  41

The trade of Allensworth got Ward into more games than expected, but his hitting dropped off even more than we thought following a surprisingly good 1997 campaign. Of course, few thought Ward was really as good as the .353 he hit (with a 1.007 OPS) in 167 at-bats the year before. Seldom more than a part-time player during his career, Ward has now had three seasons of hitting .340 or better (he had 46 and 29 at-bats in the other two years) to go along with two years of sub-.200 batting.

Adrian Brown, CF, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT  68  16  2  0  0   9   4  1   5  0   8  4  1  .235  .297  .265  .562   6
Prorated   PIT 150  35  4  0  0  20   9  2  11  0  18  9  2  .235  .297  .265  .562  13
Actual     PIT 152  43  4  1  0  20   5  0   9  0  18  4  0  .283  .323  .322  .645  16

He was called up in mid-August and started in center the rest of the way. While he did somewhat better than predicted, he is still not a major league caliber hitter, at least for an outfielder.

Jose Guillen, RF, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection PIT 600 163 25  5 17  72  87  9  22  0 103  1  2  .272  .306  .415  .721  71
Prorated   PIT 573 156 24  5 16  69  83  9  21  0  98  1  2  .272  .306  .415  .721  67
Actual     PIT 573 153 38  2 14  60  84  6  21  0 100  3  5  .267  .298  .414  .712  69

His numbers were just about what we anticipated in 1998. He has a very poor command of the strike-zone and only mediocre power, and will have to improve at least one of these areas dramatically in the next couple of years if he's going to come close to realizing his potential.

Key Pitchers

The Pirates pitching staff was a big surprise in 1998, allowing 173 fewer runs than expected. It was a group effort, as just about every pitcher exceeded our predictions. Some, like Jose Silva, Rich Loiselle, Chris Peters, Jason Christiansen, Jeff Tabaka, and Mike Williams, were a lot better than we thought, and no one was significantly worse.

Francisco Cordova, Starter, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  3.67  32 32  12 10  0  201 198 16  47 149  .260
Prorated   PIT  3.67  35 35  13 11  0  223 219 18  52 165  .260
Actual     PIT  3.31  33 33  13 14  0  220 204 22  69 157  .245

Cordova was the ace of the staff in 1998. As was his pattern the previous season, he started quickly before fading down the stretch. He record stood at 6-3 with a 2.30 ERA at the end of May. Since coming to the majors in 1996, his ERA has been 2.30 before June and 4.92 after.

Jon Lieber, Starter, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  4.49  32 32  10 12  0  196 217 23  45 146  .282
Prorated   PIT  4.49  28 28   9 11  0  172 191 20  40 128  .282
Actual     PIT  4.11  29 28   8 14  1  171 182 23  40 138  .269

Lieber was doing a little better than expected when he strained a muscle in his side on August 20th. He made only two more starts the rest of the way, pitching poorly, and pushing his ERA over the 4.00 mark. He was traded to the Cubs after the season for outfielder Brant Brown.

Esteban Loaiza, Starter, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  4.52  32 32  10 12  0  193 211 19  56 115  .281
Prorated   PIT  4.52  15 15   5  6  0   91 100  9  27  54  .281
Actual     PIT  4.52  21 14   6  5  0   92  96 13  30  53  .275
Actual     TEX  5.90  14 14   3  6  0   79 103 15  22  55  .316
Actual     TOT  5.16  35 28   9 11  0  171 199 28  52 108  .295

After going 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA, Loaiza was dropped from the starting rotation toward the end of May. He got his job back when Silva was injured, only to be traded to the Rangers in mid-July for Todd Van Poppel and minor league infielder Warren Morris. Loaiza had done just about what we thought he would up to that point, but Pittsburgh's front office must been disappointed with his progress.

You have to wonder what the Pirates thought they were getting in Van Poppel, a player who has packed a lifetime of bad pitching into only six seasons. His career ERA prior to arriving in Pittsburgh was 6.33, a mark that looked pretty good compared to his 8.84 ERA with Texas in 1998. Perhaps the Pirates were forced to take Van Poppel in order to get Morris, but they certainly didn't have to stick him in the starting rotation.

Jason Schmidt, Starter, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  4.32  32 32  11 10  0  187 194 14  86 146  .269
Prorated   PIT  4.32  35 35  12 11  0  206 214 15  95 161  .269
Actual     PIT  4.07  33 33  11 14  0  214 228 24  71 158  .275

Schmidt's record was 8-1 with a 3.59 ERA after his 4-3 win over the Mets on June 1st. He would go 3-13 with a 4.35 ERA the rest of the way. He probably should have done better than 3-13 with that kind of ERA, but the Pirates only gave him 2.5 runs a game to work with during his slump.

Jose Silva, Starter, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  5.46  27 27   6 11  0  168 208 14  63 133  .309
Prorated   PIT  5.46  15 15   3  6  0   94 117  8  35  75  .309
Actual     PIT  4.40  18 18   6  7  0  100 104  7  30  64  .271

Silva was expected to replace Steve Cooke in the starting rotation and he was doing a pretty good job (6-3 with a 3.44 ERA) before breaking a wrist attempting a sacrifice bunt on June 16th. He would return in September and lose all four of his starts while allowing 18 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings.

Chris Peters, Middle Relief/Starter, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  4.58  17  0   1  1  0   18  18  2   7  12  .269
Prorated   PIT  4.58          8  8  0  145 147 16  57  98  .269
Actual     PIT  3.47  39 21   8 10  1  148 142 13  55 103  .252

Peters replaced Loaiza in the starting rotation in May and had by far the best season of his brief major league career. His ERA prior to 1998 was 5.24.

Rich Loiselle, Closer, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  4.65  70  0   3  6 23   72  80  7  28  57  .287
Prorated   PIT  4.65  57  0   2  5 19   59  66  6  23  47  .287
Actual     PIT  3.44  54  0   2  7 19   55  56  2  36  48  .262

We weren't really as pessimistic about Loiselle's chances in 1998 as it seems from the high ERA. In 1997, he had allowed 76 hits and 24 walks in 72 2/3 innings. We expected him to do a little worse last year, but somehow an extra four hits and four walks translated into a big jump (3.10 to 4.65) in ERA.

After saving 29 games the previous year, he was forced to share the closer's job with Rincon for much of 1998. In late July, he strained a muscle in his back and was out four weeks.

Ricardo Rincon, Closer, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  3.12  70  0   5  3  1   75  65  6  26  89  .233
Prorated   PIT  3.12  60  0   4  3  1   65  56  5  22  77  .233
Actual     PIT  2.91  60  0   0  2 14   65  50  6  29  64  .208

Rincon started the season on the DL with a strained hamstring. He joined the team in the middle of April and by the end of May had allowed only 2 earned runs in his first 26.2 innings. His fine pitching got him a share of the closer's job for the next three months, but by the end of the year, he was back in the setup role. He was traded to the Indians last November for outfielder Brian Giles.

Jason Christiansen, Middle Relief, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  4.89  53  0   2  3  0   53  59  5  23  54  .282
Prorated   PIT  4.89  60  0   2  3  0   60  66  6  26  61  .282
Actual     PIT  2.51  60  0   3  3  6   65  51  2  27  71  .216

Christiansen hadn't been the most consistent pitcher in his short career. In 1996 and 1997, he had posted ERAs of 6.70 and 2.94. We figured that he'd finish somewhere in the middle last season, but by the end of July he had an ERA of 1.63. He reverted to his pre-1997 form after that, with a 5.40 ERA over his last two months.

Jeff Tabaka, Middle Relief, age 34

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  5.51  25  0   1  1  0   16  17  2   9  19  .270
Prorated   PIT  5.51  71  0   3  3  0   46  48  6  25  54  .270
Actual     PIT  3.02  37  0   2  2  0   51  37  6  22  40  .204

Tabaka was picked up prior to the season as bullpen insurance in case Jeff Wallace couldn't recover from a September 1997 torn ligament. Wallace ended up missing the entire year and Tabaka had a very good season with the Bucs, in spite of a trip to the minors at the end of April and missing all of June with a fractured jaw.

Mike Williams, Middle Relief, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection PIT  5.34  53  0   5  5  0   88  98 10  41  67  .287
Prorated   PIT  5.34  27  0   3  3  0   45  50  5  21  34  .287
Actual     PIT  1.94  37  1   4  2  0   51  39  1  16  59  .211

He got called up from the minors when Silva broke his wrist in June. I'm not sure how to explain what happened next. Williams was coming off seasons with ERAs of 5.44 and 6.43. In AAA prior to his call-up, he wasn't any better, with a 5.59 ERA and 11 home runs allowed in only 37 innings. He obviously found major league hitter easier to handle than the minor league variety, but I wouldn't count too heavily on that happening again.

Outlook

The Pirates have added several players since the end of the season, but it's not clear what they're going to do with all of them. With the exception of catcher and first base, just about every position seems up in the air, with three or four candidates competing for each spot. Will Womack spend next year at second, center, or in another city? What will the Bucs do with Al Martin? Where do Brant Brown and Brian Giles fit in the outfield? Or Ed Sprague and Mike Benjamin in the infield? Will the young players like Ramirez, Guillen and Warren Morris be ready to contribute more in 1999?

The pitching staff looks weaker this time around. Lieber and Rincon are gone and the only newcomer is Pete Schourek. The team seems to be counting on Schourek, Silva and Peters to fill out the three spots in the starting rotation behind Cordova and Schmidt and that sure looks like a very weak group. Of course, we thought that last year and were pleasantly surprised.

Even with all the options at their disposal, it doesn't look as if the Pirates have enough quality players to improve much next year. Their second-place finish in 1997 could well be the highwater mark for the franchise until they (hopefully) leave Three Rivers Stadium following the 2000 season.