Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- San Diego Padres By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the San Diego Padres did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 776 749 Runs allowed 776 635 Run Margin 0 114 Wins 83 98 Pythagorean wins 81 94 Placement 3rd 1st After winning an unexpected division title in 1996, the Padres slumped badly the following year. While the hitters were again one of the league's best in 1997, their pitching staff collapsed, giving up 209 more runs than they had during their title season. General manager Kevin Towers brought in Dave Stewart to replace Dan Warthen as pitching coach. He traded three prospects (including Derrick Lee and Rafael Medina) to Florida for Kevin Brown and signed Mark Langston. In addition, Towers made several moves designed to improve the relief corps, picking up Dan Miceli, Donne Wall and Brian Boehringer to replace Tim Worrell and Doug Bochtler. He made fewer changes to the offense, signing free-agent catchers Greg Myers and Mark Sweeney to replace John Flaherty (traded to Tampa Bay for Boehringer and Andy Sheets), but otherwise keeping the lineup intact. Even with these changes, it didn't appear they be able to contend for the NL West title in 1998. As it turned out, their pitching went from being the league's worst to being one of its best, propelling them to their second World Series appearance in franchise history. This, in turn, caused voters in San Diego to approve funding for a new stadium for the Padres. Key Position PlayersThe Padres actually scored slightly fewer runs than expected in 1998. Injuries to Gwynn and Caminiti, as well as a poor season from Finley, were mostly to blame for this, and only an unexpectedly good season from Greg Vaughn kept the team's offense from being much worse than predicted. Carlos Hernandez, C, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 214 51 8 0 4 16 22 1 8 0 46 1 3 .238 .268 .332 .600 17 Prorated SDN 397 95 15 0 7 30 41 2 15 0 85 2 6 .238 .268 .332 .600 31 Actual SDN 390 102 15 0 9 34 52 9 16 2 54 2 2 .262 .305 .369 .674 39 After spending four years in LA as the backup to Mike Piazza and one year playing behind John Flaherty, Hernandez got a chance to be the regular catcher for the first time in 1998. Hernandez was a free agent after the season, but the promise of steady work, as well as the obligatory million dollars or so, convinced him to stay in San Diego. If only the rest of the team had been so easy to please. Greg Myers, C, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 388 99 21 3 8 44 53 1 26 4 67 0 0 .255 .300 .387 .687 44 Prorated SDN 175 45 9 1 4 20 24 0 12 2 30 0 0 .255 .300 .387 .687 20 Actual SDN 171 42 10 0 4 19 20 0 17 1 36 0 1 .246 .312 .374 .686 19 Myers broke a bone in his wrist on June 3rd and did not return until the end of July. While he was healthy, he hit as well as predicted. Mark Sweeney, C, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 63 18 3 0 1 9 11 1 11 1 11 1 1 .286 .395 .381 .776 10 Prorated SDN 182 52 9 0 3 26 32 3 32 3 32 3 3 .286 .395 .381 .776 30 Actual SDN 192 45 8 3 2 17 15 1 26 0 37 1 2 .234 .324 .339 .663 22 The injury to Myers gave Sweeney an opportunity to play, but he didn't hit particularly well. He batted only .165 at home with a .526 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage), compared to a .297 average (and a .791 OPS) on the road. Jim Leyritz, C/1B, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection BOS 229 60 9 0 4 29 35 5 33 2 55 1 0 .262 .363 .354 .717 31 Prorated BOS 131 34 5 0 2 17 20 3 19 1 32 1 0 .262 .363 .354 .717 18 Actual BOS 129 37 6 0 8 17 24 2 21 1 34 0 0 .287 .385 .519 .904 27 Actual SDN 143 38 10 0 4 17 18 7 21 0 40 0 0 .266 .384 .420 .803 25 Actual TOT 272 75 16 0 12 34 42 9 42 1 74 0 0 .276 .384 .467 .851 52 After Myers was injured, the Padres traded reliever Carlos Reyes and two others to Boston in exchange for Leyritz. He had a much better year than expected, putting up his best power numbers since 1994. He added another four home runs in the post season before going 0 for 10 against the Yankees in the World Series. Wally Joyner, 1B, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 516 156 33 2 12 68 86 3 71 8 71 4 4 .302 .384 .444 .828 90 Prorated SDN 425 128 27 2 10 56 71 2 58 7 58 3 3 .302 .384 .444 .828 74 Actual SDN 439 131 30 1 12 58 80 1 51 8 44 1 2 .298 .370 .453 .824 73 Joyner had a very typical season in 1998, though he was doing far better than that before shoulder problems and a late season slump. He was batting .319 on July 29th, but hit .250 with only 2 home runs the rest of the way. It seems a long time since he was considered a power threat; he's averaged 11 home runs a season since 1992 and despite hitting around .300 each year is no longer an above average offensive first baseman. His job was ensured when Derrek Lee, the heir apparent at first, was traded to Florida in the Kevin Brown deal, and Joyner will return in 1999. Quilvio Veras, 2B, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 559 150 23 2 5 88 43 8 91 1 86 37 18 .268 .377 .343 .720 80 Prorated SDN 511 137 21 2 5 81 39 7 83 1 79 34 16 .268 .377 .343 .720 74 Actual SDN 517 138 24 2 6 79 45 6 84 2 78 24 9 .267 .373 .356 .729 77 He missed some time in 1998 due to a variety of sliding mishaps. On two separate occasions early in the season, he hurt his shoulder diving head-first into a base. After that, he changed to the feet-first approach, only to hurt his wrist sliding into home on July 4th. When he wasn't stumbling around the base-paths, Veras was having the kind of year we thought he would, with an above average number of walks making up for a less than stellar batting average. He's scheduled for off-season surgery to repair his shoulder and word is that he's on track to be ready to play by mid-April, if not sooner. Chris Gomez, SS, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 500 128 21 2 6 58 52 6 56 1 102 5 5 .256 .336 .342 .678 57 Prorated SDN 453 116 19 2 5 52 47 5 51 1 92 5 5 .256 .336 .342 .678 52 Actual SDN 449 120 32 3 4 55 39 5 51 7 87 1 3 .267 .346 .379 .725 59 Gomez finished strongly, hitting .344 after August 5th to raise his batting average 30 points. You don't normally expect clutch hitting from the eighth place in the batting order and the Padres didn't get any from Gomez, who hit .185 with men in scoring position. Andy Sheets, SS/3B/2B, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 70 17 3 0 2 10 7 0 5 0 17 1 0 .243 .289 .371 .661 8 Prorated SDN 199 48 9 0 6 28 20 0 14 0 48 3 0 .243 .289 .371 .661 22 Actual SDN 194 47 5 3 7 31 29 1 21 3 62 7 2 .242 .318 .407 .725 26 The injury to Caminiti and the early season slump of Gomez got Sheets into many more games than anticipated. He had a poor first half, however, and was only hitting .203 on July 12th. Sheets improved after that, batting .310 in limited duty the rest of the way. He bats from the right side, but hit much better without the platoon advantage in 1998. He had an OPS of .835 in 117 plate appearance against righties, compared to an OPS of .605 in 104 appearances against southpaws. He has yet to homer off a lefty in his major league career. Ken Caminiti, 3B, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 531 159 33 1 31 99 107 3 85 11 111 11 3 .299 .394 .540 .934 117 Prorated SDN 453 136 28 1 26 84 91 3 73 9 95 9 3 .299 .394 .540 .934 100 Actual SDN 452 114 29 0 29 87 82 4 71 4 108 6 2 .252 .353 .509 .862 87 After undergoing off-season knee surgery, Caminiti missed three weeks in May with strained quadriceps. For most of the season he suffered with an assortment of ailments (back, elbow and leg problems) but still managed to post pretty good offensive numbers. In past seasons, Caminiti improved over the second half of the season, but he faded badly down the stretch this time, going 11-73 (.151) with only 2 home runs after August 27th. Greg Vaughn, LF, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 512 117 17 1 31 86 90 4 79 4 142 9 4 .229 .333 .447 .781 80 Prorated SDN 564 129 19 1 34 95 99 4 87 4 156 10 4 .229 .333 .447 .781 88 Actual SDN 573 156 28 4 50 112 119 5 79 6 121 11 4 .272 .363 .597 .960 128 Vaughn was one of several hitters last season who had at least an outside chance of breaking Roger Maris' home run record. On July 22nd, Vaughn hit his 36th homer, putting him one behind Sosa. He had never hit higher than .267 before, but his average stood at .310 and he had 88 RBIs. He would hit only .206 the rest of the way, but still managed to hit 50 home runs and set career highs in homers, RBIs and batting average. He hasn't been one of baseball's most consistent performers. Here are his triple crown stats since 1995: Year HR RBI Avg
1995 17 59 .224
1996 41 117 .260
1997 18 57 .216
1998 50 119 .272
He was traded to Cincinnati recently and his new team must figure that this pattern won't continue in 1999. Steve Finley, CF, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 612 169 33 7 26 112 86 3 55 3 89 20 6 .276 .336 .480 .816 99 Prorated SDN 608 168 33 7 26 111 85 3 55 3 88 20 6 .276 .336 .480 .816 98 Actual SDN 619 154 40 6 14 92 67 3 45 0 103 12 3 .249 .301 .401 .702 76 The Diamondbacks have got to be hoping that 1998 was nothing more than an off-year for Finley. His OPSs for the last three years have been .885, .788 and .702. Among regular center fielders, only Brian Hunter, Marquis Grissom and Doug Glanville hit worse in 1998. He probably won't miss Qualcomm Stadium; he batted only .210 there last year. Tony Gwynn, RF, age 38AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 572 206 42 2 10 90 97 2 45 12 25 12 5 .360 .403 .493 .896 112 Prorated SDN 459 165 34 2 8 72 78 2 36 10 20 10 4 .360 .403 .493 .896 90 Actual SDN 461 148 35 0 16 65 69 1 35 6 18 3 1 .321 .364 .501 .865 82 Gwynn was hitting .359 on June 5th when he went into an extended slump. Between June 6th and July 23rd, he would hit .217, dropping his average down to .304. Gwynn missed most of August with a strained Achilles tendon, then hurt his thumb in September and was out nearly a week. Even when healthy, he looked heavy and slow much of the year. He would finish the season with his worst batting average since 1992. Of course, a .321 average would be a career high for most hitters. Ruben Rivera, RF/LF/CF, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SDN 89 20 4 1 3 13 11 2 8 0 28 4 2 .225 .300 .393 .693 11 Prorated SDN 182 41 8 2 6 27 22 4 16 0 57 8 4 .225 .300 .393 .693 22 Actual SDN 172 36 7 2 6 31 29 2 28 0 52 5 1 .209 .325 .378 .703 24 Rivera has been a top prospect since winning back-to-back MVP awards in the minor leagues in 1993 and 1994. Injury problems had stalled his career in recent years and he was still in the minors at the start of last season. Despite hitting only .144 at AAA with 42 strikeouts in 104 at-bats, Rivera was called up in mid-May. We weren't optimistic about his chances to help the Padres in 1998. A hot first month (he hit .333 with good power) gave San Diego fans hope that he'd finally arrived, but his offense collapsed and he hit .162 the rest of the way to finish just about where we'd predicted he would. His batting average was only .133 (with a .518 OPS) against righties in 1998. With the departure of Finley, it looks as though San Diego is counting on Rivera to take over full-time duties in centerfield. On the surface, this doesn't look like good news for Padres fans. Key PitchersSparked by great seasons from Kevin Brown and Trevor Hoffman, San Diego allowed 141 fewer runs than expected in 1998. Ashby, Hitchcock, Miceli and Wall also were pleasant surprises, while only Mark Langston did much worse than anticipated. The team has allowed 682, 891 and 635 runs the last three seasons, and the departure of Brown and Hamilton will probably cause a sharp rise in this total in 1999. Kevin Brown, Starter, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 2.91 32 32 16 9 0 238 212 11 52 184 .242 Prorated SDN 2.91 34 34 17 10 0 256 228 12 56 198 .242 Actual SDN 2.38 36 35 18 7 0 257 225 8 49 257 .235 He was everything the Padres hoped for last year, a dominating starting pitcher who gave the team a lot of innings. He has been a great pitcher ever since coming to the NL three years ago and will pitch for his fifth team in six years in 1999. The most surprising thing about his performance last season was his strikeout total. Since 1996, his number of strikeouts per nine innings has gone from 6.14 to 7.77 to 9.00. He added a forkball to his repertoire in 1998, which may explain the latest rise in strikeouts. Joey Hamilton, Starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 4.05 32 32 12 10 0 209 208 21 80 149 .263 Prorated SDN 4.05 34 34 13 11 0 223 222 22 86 159 .263 Actual SDN 4.27 34 34 13 13 0 217 220 15 106 147 .267 Hamilton got off to a poor start in 1998 and was rumored to be on the trading block. Instead of shipping him elsewhere, the Padres hung on to Hamilton and were rewarded when he turned in an excellent second half. Through the end of June, his record was 5-9 with a 5.31 ERA. After that, he went 9-5 with an ERA of 3.09. He had pretty good control when he first came up (allowing only 56 walks in 204 innings in 1995) but led the National League with 106 walks allowed last year. He suffered from back problems late in the year and was traded to Toronto after the season. Andy Ashby, Starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 4.05 32 32 12 10 0 213 220 22 60 144 .270 Prorated SDN 4.05 34 34 13 10 0 224 231 23 63 151 .270 Actual SDN 3.34 33 33 17 9 0 227 223 23 58 151 .259 He bounced back from an off-year in 1997 to set a career high in wins. His ERA has been 3.40 or lower in four of the last five seasons. At one point he looked like a sure bet to win 20 games. His stats before and after August 13th: ERA G W L IP H HR BB K Before 8/13 2.50 26 16 6 191 168 14 43 132 After 8/13 7.75 7 1 3 36 55 9 15 19 Sterling Hitchcock, Starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 4.95 27 27 8 10 0 160 174 21 59 113 .278 Prorated SDN 4.95 29 29 8 11 0 169 184 22 62 120 .278 Actual SDN 3.93 39 27 9 7 1 176 169 29 48 158 .251 He started the season in the bullpen before moving into the rotation when Langston went on the disabled list in April. He ended up posting the lowest ERA of his career and his first sub-5.00 mark since leaving New York in 1995. He especially enjoyed pitching in San Diego, going 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA there. He turned into a Cy Young killer in the post-season, defeating Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine in consecutive starts, before battling David Cone to a draw. Mark Langston, Starter, age 37Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 4.45 32 32 11 11 0 194 192 21 75 139 .261 Prorated SDN 4.45 15 15 5 5 0 89 88 10 34 63 .261 Actual SDN 5.86 22 16 4 6 0 81 107 11 41 56 .325 After missing most of the two previous seasons due to injuries, Langston attempted a comeback with the Padres last season. Despite a shoulder injury that put him on the shelf for a month during the early going, he had a 3-1 record and a 3.78 ERA following his outing on July 4th. He pitched poorly after that, going 1-5 with a 9.10 ERA, before a strained rib cage sent him to DL. He missed three weeks and was used sparingly out of the bullpen after his return. Trevor Hoffman, Closer, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 2.64 70 0 5 4 36 78 57 9 26 99 .203 Prorated SDN 2.64 61 0 4 3 31 68 50 8 23 86 .203 Actual SDN 1.48 66 0 4 2 53 73 41 2 21 86 .165 We predicted that Hoffman would be outstanding in 1998 -- and ended up underestimating him. Over his last three seasons, covering 242 1/3 innings in 206 games, he has allowed only 229 baserunners and compiled a 2.15 ERA. He could very well be the greatest player ever selected in an expansion draft, having been plucked from the Reds organization by the Marlins in 1993. On May 15th, the Phillies scored a run off of Hoffman in the ninth inning of a 7-6 Padres victory. This was significant in that it was the only run allowed by him all year in a night game. In all, he pitched 45 games and 50 1/3 innings under the lights in 1998, posting a 0.18 ERA. He's probably not a fan of interleague play. Including the World Series, he allowed 6 runs in 6 1/3 innings against the American League last year. Dan Miceli, Middle Relief, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 4.83 40 0 2 3 0 54 55 8 24 50 .263 Prorated SDN 4.83 50 0 3 4 0 68 69 10 30 63 .263 Actual SDN 3.22 67 0 10 5 2 73 64 6 27 70 .238 Miceli came to San Diego in the Tim Worrell deal and had a lot to do with the fine job turned in by the Padres bullpen in 1998. Considering his ERA was 5.28 coming into the season, his performance must be considered something of a surprise. He did a much better job of keeping the ball in the park than he had in the past and he gave up fewer other hits (and walks) as well. Donne Wall, Middle Relief, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 5.91 4 4 1 2 0 21 27 3 6 15 .310 Prorated SDN 5.91 12 12 3 6 0 64 81 9 18 45 .310 Actual SDN 2.43 46 1 5 4 1 70 50 6 32 56 .202 Wall started the season in the minors before getting called up when Langston was injured in April. An ineffective starter during his previous major league seasons, he was moved into relief last year and responded with an excellent year. His transition to the bullpen was immediately successful: in his first five games he allowed only two hits and no earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. He missed some time in September with shoulder tenderness. Brian Boehringer, Middle Relief, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 4.89 70 0 4 5 2 92 96 10 49 86 .268 Prorated SDN 4.89 58 0 3 4 2 76 79 8 40 71 .268 Actual SDN 4.36 56 1 5 2 0 76 75 10 45 67 .257 Boehringer was selected by Tampa Bay in the expansion draft and then traded to San Diego as part of the Flaherty deal. He had over-achieved somewhat with the Yankees in 1997, posting a 2.63 ERA in 48 innings, but as expected, found the going tougher last year. He managed a slightly lower ERA than predicted, despite allowing more baserunners and homers. Heath Murray, Middle Relief, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 6.24 57 4 3 7 0 92 123 10 44 78 .323 Although we didn't expect Murray to pitch well in 1998, we did think he'd make the team. He spent the year at AAA instead, going 9-11 with a 4.99 ERA. Ed Vosberg, Middle Relief, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SDN 4.00 70 0 4 3 1 72 78 5 25 59 .279 Picked up from the Marlins in the off-season, Vosberg injured his shoulder before spring training. He had exploratory surgery in April and ended up missing the entire year. OutlookThe National League Championship helped seal a stadium deal for San Diego, whose baseball-only park was approved by voters in November. The citizens of that city felt that by approving the deal they were ensuring that their team would return to defend their title relatively intact. Since that vote, however, Dave Stewart, their highly regarded pitching coach, left to become the assistant GM with Toronto, free agent Ken Caminiti signed with the Astros, Steve Finley signed with the Diamondbacks and Kevin Brown signed with the Dodgers. They traded Joey Hamilton to Toronto for pitchers Woody Williams, Carlos Almanzar and prospect Peter Tucci. Finally, they sent Greg Vaughn and Mark Sweeney to the Reds for Reggie Sanders, Damian Jackson and Josh Harris. Some of these changes were no fault of the front-office. Few teams in baseball would have been able to out-bid the Dodgers for Kevin Brown, and Ken Caminiti simply wanted to return to Houston and was willing to take less money to do it. Besides, Caminiti looked like he had very little left at the end of 1998 and San Diego has George Arias, their system's top prospect and a third baseman, waiting for his chance. Finley probably could have been resigned but he's an older player coming off two declining years and isn't worth the $21 million over 4 years that the Diamondbacks will be paying him. The trades were another matter. The fact that Joey Hamilton was traded to Toronto -- who presumably had the help of new assistant GM (and former Padres pitching coach) Stewart -- would worry me if I was a Padres fan. It's a little reminiscent of the time Dallas Green moved from the Phillies to the Cubs and then turned around and sent Ivan DeJesus to his old team for Ryne Sandberg and Larry Bowa. The Vaughn deal is also hard to figure. Reggie Sanders is two years younger than Vaughn, but he's injury-prone and coming off of three straight mediocre seasons. People around the game have been talking about his potential for years, but he's 31 and has produced only one really good season in an eight year career. One of the players the Padres have been unable to trade has been Randy Myers. San Diego never had any interest in the fading reliever. They picked him up to prevent the Braves, a playoff rival, from getting him and could be stuck for his $6 million contract in 1999. The White Sox and Mariners have expressed interest, but only if the Padres are willing to take an even worse player (Jaime Navarro, Russ Davis) in return. Their offense next year will center around two older players (Joyner and Gwynn), Reggie Sanders, rookie George Arias and Ruben Rivera. That, coupled with a diminished pitching staff, should drop the Padres from contender status in 1999.
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