Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1998
Post-Season Reviews
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1998 Post-Season Review -- Seattle Mariners By Tom Tippett This article takes a look at how the Seattle Mariners did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 942 859 Runs allowed 743 855 Run Margin +199 +4 Wins 99 76 Pythagorean wins 100 81 Placement 1st 3rd The Mariners went into the season as the consensus favorite to win the AL West title. Fifteen publications predicted the 1998 final standings last spring, and all fifteen chose the Ms to win their division. In our view, with the league's best offense and a starting rotation anchored by Randy Johnson, Jeff Fassero, and Jamie Moyer, they were also the favorites to represent the AL in the World Series. As you all know, it didn't happen. Johnson got off to a terrible start and the bullpen blew one lead after another in the early going. Then injuries to Jay Buhner and Dan Wilson turned an excellent offense into a merely very good one. Before long, the club was well off the pace and deciding it had no choice to deal free-agent-to-be Randy Johnson at the trading deadline for fear of getting absolutely nothing for him after the season. Seattle limped home with a sub-.500 record and a third-place finish. Key Position PlayersThe Mariners scored 83 fewer runs than projected, but it wasn't because a lot of guys had bad years. In fact, every starter produced at almost exactly the projected rate. So what happened? Two injuries accounted for much of the decline, as DanWilson (who missed about 200 atbats) created 26 fewer runs and Jay Buhner (out for half the season) came up short by 48, despite producing at their normal levels when they did play. Griffey, with 142 runs created versus a projection of 150, wasn't quite as superhuman as he'd been the past few years. And the bench didn't help much, as the players who filled in for Buhner and Wilson weren't able to contribute nearly as much to the attack. Even so, Seattle was still fifth in the league in scoring, thanks to great seasons from Alex Rodriguez, Griffey, and Edgar Martinez, and solid production from David Segui, Russ Davis and Joey Cora. A lot of teams would have traded their lineup for Seattle's in a heartbeat. Dan Wilson, C, age 29 (as of July 1, 1998)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 531 142 30 1 15 58 77 4 35 2 81 4 2 .267 .315 .412 .728 67 Prorated SEA 335 90 19 1 9 37 49 3 22 1 51 3 1 .267 .315 .412 .728 42 Actual SEA 325 82 17 1 9 39 44 5 24 0 56 2 1 .252 .308 .394 .702 41 Wilson missed about six weeks (late July through the end of August) thanks to ligament damage in his ankle. Even though Seattle struggled early in the season, when Wilson was in the lineup, and played over .500 in July and August, it would wrong to say they didn't miss him. There were times when Texas and Anaheim were faltering and it seemed that the Mariners were poised to make a run. A healthy Wilson may well have helped them do that. John Marzano, C, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 69 18 4 0 1 6 7 1 4 0 10 0 0 .261 .311 .362 .673 8 Prorated SEA 141 37 8 0 2 12 14 2 8 0 20 0 0 .261 .311 .362 .673 15 Actual SEA 133 31 7 1 4 13 12 9 9 1 24 0 0 .233 .325 .391 .715 17 Seattle should be happy with Marzano's 1998 season. Even though his batting average was low, his OPS was well above his career average. In fact, it was about the same as Wilson's, so they gave up very little offense when Marzano was in the lineup. And they didn't give up anything defensively, either, as the M's pitchers had a lower ERA (by a quarter of a run) with Marzano catching than with Wilson. And both catchers were a little below average throwing out runners. Joe Oliver, C, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection DET 196 48 7 0 8 18 26 2 15 1 37 1 1 .245 .302 .403 .705 23 Prorated DET 151 37 5 0 6 14 20 2 12 1 28 1 1 .245 .302 .403 .705 18 Actual DET 155 35 8 0 4 8 22 0 7 0 33 0 1 .226 .253 .355 .608 13 Actual SEA 85 19 3 0 2 12 10 0 10 0 15 1 0 .224 .305 .329 .635 9 Actual TOT 240 54 11 0 6 20 32 0 17 0 48 1 1 .225 .272 .346 .618 21 Seattle signed Oliver, who had been released by the Tigers, as soon as Wilson was hurt, but the veteran receiver proved to be less effective than Marzano. His offensive production was lower, his catcher ERA higher, and opposing runners were a little more successful with Oliver behind the plate. David Segui, 1B, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 540 155 30 1 21 86 77 1 66 10 73 3 1 .287 .363 .463 .826 92 Prorated SEA 510 146 28 1 20 81 73 1 62 9 69 3 1 .287 .363 .463 .826 87 Actual SEA 522 159 36 1 19 79 84 0 49 4 80 3 1 .305 .359 .487 .845 91 Segui started out like a house on fire (.322 with 15 homers before the break) before tailing off in the second half. As usual, he missed some playing time with injuries. This time around, he was hobbled by a strained groin, bruised foot, sprained wrist, and torn cartilage in his right knee. Word is that Segui will be playing a lot of LF in 1999 because Buhner will have to play 1B until his elbow is strong enough to permit him to throw from RF again. Too bad, because Segui is a very capable defensive 1B and likely to be much less of an asset in LF. Raul Ibanez, 1B/RF/LF, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 70 18 4 1 2 10 10 0 4 0 11 1 1 .257 .293 .429 .722 9 Prorated SEA 96 25 5 1 3 14 14 0 5 0 15 1 1 .257 .293 .429 .722 12 Actual SEA 98 25 7 1 2 12 12 0 5 0 22 0 0 .255 .291 .408 .699 10 Was considered a strong contender to make the club in the spring before he hurt his shoulder in winter ball. He was called up in August and produced at the level indicated by his minor league record. He's only drawn 5 walks in 129 major-league atbats, but that may just be part of making the adjustment to the big leagues, as his walk rates in the minors have been quite a bit higher. Joey Cora, 2B, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 600 172 40 4 8 99 49 7 45 1 46 7 7 .287 .339 .407 .746 84 Prorated SEA 536 154 36 4 7 88 44 6 40 1 41 6 6 .287 .339 .407 .746 75 Actual SEA 519 147 23 6 6 95 26 4 62 0 50 13 5 .283 .362 .385 .748 79 Actual CLE 83 19 4 0 0 16 6 1 11 0 9 2 1 .229 .326 .277 .603 8 Actual TOT 602 166 27 6 6 111 32 5 73 0 59 15 6 .276 .357 .370 .728 87 Even though Cora maintained his level of production and reached base at a good clip (.362 OBP), he became expendable when Carlos Guillen was acquired in the Randy Johnson trade. I believe this will prove to be an upgrade at 2B for the Mariners, as Guillen should produce offensively and is likely to be a better defensive 2B. David Bell, 2B/3B, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SLN 73 16 3 0 1 6 7 1 5 1 12 1 1 .219 .275 .301 .576 6 Actual SLN 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .222 .222 .333 .556 1 Actual CLE 340 89 21 2 10 37 41 2 22 4 54 0 4 .262 .306 .424 .730 42 Actual SEA 80 26 8 0 0 11 8 0 5 0 8 0 0 .325 .365 .425 .790 12 Actual TOT 420 115 29 2 10 48 49 2 27 4 62 0 4 .274 .317 .424 .741 53 In the minors, Bell hit double figures in homers only once, and there's little to suggest that he'll ever hit .300 or get on base a lot. Bud if he plays solid defense and continues to hit this well, he'll be a valuable 2B for many clubs. And he might still get better, as he had the talent to reach AAA at a relatively young age (21) and had some of his better seasons at the higher levels. Carlos Guillen, 2B, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection HOU 70 14 3 0 1 6 4 0 4 0 14 1 1 .200 .243 .286 .529 5 Prorated 40 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 2 0 8 1 1 .200 .243 .286 .529 5 Actual SEA 39 13 1 1 0 9 5 0 3 0 9 2 0 .333 .381 .410 .791 7 A shortstop in the Houston organization, Guillen was converted to 2B by Seattle, for the obvious reason that they already have a budding Hall-of-Fame SS in Alex Rodriguez. If the Mariners are unable to sign both Griffey and Rodriguez next year, it'll be interesting to see who they keep. If it's Junior, you could see Guillen back at short. Russ Davis, 3B, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 573 148 37 1 23 77 79 4 42 3 139 6 2 .258 .312 .447 .759 79 Prorated SEA 503 130 33 1 20 68 69 4 37 3 122 5 2 .258 .312 .447 .759 69 Actual SEA 502 130 30 1 20 67 82 3 34 1 134 4 3 .259 .305 .442 .747 67 Davis was projected to be a little below the league average in OPS, and he fell a three doubles and three walks short of that projection. In other words, he's a below-average hitter who's playing a position that requires more offense than that. And he's a major liability in the field, with subpar range and a league-leading total of 32 errors last year. There was some speculation that the Red Sox might try to trade for Davis to replace some of the power lost by Mo Vaughn's departure, and I heard it said that he might have 35-homer power in Fenway. I don't see any evidence to support that claim. Alex Rodriguez, SS, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 680 220 52 3 33 129 115 4 53 1 116 25 7 .324 .374 .554 .929 139 Prorated SEA 683 221 52 3 33 130 115 4 53 1 116 25 7 .324 .374 .554 .929 140 Actual SEA 686 213 35 5 42 123 124 10 45 0 121 46 13 .310 .360 .560 .919 138 I'm in awe of what this kid has done so far in his career. A pair of 200-hit seasons. More than 100 career homers. A .313 career average. Solid defense at a demanding position. And he's still adding to his game. I like Garciaparra and Jeter a lot, but I think I'd trade either one of them straight up for Rodriguez. Jeff Huson, IF, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 82 18 3 0 0 9 7 1 5 0 9 2 1 .220 .270 .256 .526 5 Prorated SEA 49 11 2 0 0 5 4 1 3 0 5 1 1 .220 .270 .256 .526 3 Actual SEA 49 8 1 0 1 8 4 0 5 0 6 1 1 .163 .241 .245 .486 3 Huson was one of several reserves who failed to provide much help off the bench in 1998. He's been around for 11 years and has a career average of .231 and no power. He could still catch on as a utility player somewhere, but he's not likely to contribute any offense. Glenallen Hill, LF, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 557 150 41 3 24 76 95 5 36 2 122 11 6 .269 .316 .483 .799 83 Prorated SEA 255 69 19 1 11 35 44 2 17 1 56 5 3 .269 .316 .483 .799 38 Actual SEA 259 75 20 2 12 37 33 3 14 1 45 1 1 .290 .332 .521 .853 39 Actual CHN 131 46 5 0 8 26 23 0 14 1 34 0 0 .351 .414 .573 .986 31 Actual TOT 390 121 25 2 20 63 56 3 28 2 79 1 1 .310 .360 .538 .898 70 Although he was hitting quite well in Seattle, Hill was waived by the club in early July because they felt he was a defensive liability. Even without his Chicago stats, he was on pace for his best season ever, so the club couldn't possibly have been disappointed in his hitting. Shane Monahan, LF, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 73 18 4 0 2 7 10 0 2 0 17 2 1 .247 .267 .384 .650 7 Prorated SEA 213 52 12 0 6 20 29 0 6 0 50 6 3 .247 .267 .384 .650 20 Actual SEA 211 51 8 1 4 17 28 0 8 0 53 1 2 .242 .269 .346 .615 20 Monahan was called up a few days after Glenallen Hill was released despited batting .249 with 4 homers and only 19 walks in 277 atbats at AAA Tacoma during the first half. His minor-league record shows no power to speak of, but while he's young enough to get better, I always wonder about a guy who walks as rarely as he does. Ken Griffey Jr., CF, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 576 171 30 2 51 122 135 6 74 18 109 13 3 .297 .377 .622 .999 139 Prorated SEA 624 185 32 2 55 132 146 6 80 19 118 14 3 .297 .377 .622 .999 150 Actual SEA 633 180 33 3 56 120 146 7 76 11 121 20 5 .284 .365 .611 .977 142 Griffey had a terrific season and led the team in runs created, so it seems unfair to mention that his batting average was down by enough to drop him from a projected 150 runs created to an actual total of 142. I'll take that any day, especially from a player who mans an important defensive position, but it's also true that his production was lower in 1998 than in any full season since 1992. The only exception was 1995, when a broken wrist cost Griffey half a season and reduced his effectiveness at the plate. Jay Buhner, RF, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 492 120 20 1 36 89 106 5 84 4 142 0 0 .244 .357 .508 .865 90 Prorated SEA 240 59 10 0 18 43 52 2 41 2 69 0 0 .244 .357 .508 .865 44 Actual SEA 244 59 7 1 15 33 45 1 38 0 71 0 0 .242 .344 .463 .807 42 Buhner hurt his knee in early April and didn't return until mid-June. Then he hurt his elbow making a throw in August and was forced to shut things down for good a couple of weeks later. He had "Tommy John" surgery in September and won't be ready to play right field for at least the first half of the 1999 season. When he did play, he proved that the knee injury hadn't affected his hitting. Off the top of my head, I can't think of another power hitter who's had this type of elbow surgery, so I don't know whether it will affect his stroke in 1999. But pitchers seem to need about two years to make a full recovery, and it's quite possible that Buhner will struggle at the plate next year. Rob Ducey, OF, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 77 22 8 1 2 11 6 1 4 1 15 1 2 .286 .325 .494 .819 12 Prorated SEA 232 66 24 3 6 33 18 3 12 3 45 3 6 .286 .325 .494 .819 35 Actual SEA 217 52 18 2 5 30 23 9 23 2 61 4 3 .240 .336 .410 .746 31 This projection was just plain wrong. Because Ducey played in Japan in 1995-6, his forecast was based solely on his 143 Seattle atbats in 1997. Ducey's 1998 performance was consistent with his career averages, and that would have been a better basis for assessing his 1998 outlook to begin with. He became a free agent after the season and has signed with the Phillies for 1999. Rich Amaral, OF/IF, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 142 40 5 1 0 27 13 2 14 0 24 10 4 .282 .352 .331 .683 18 Prorated SEA 131 37 5 1 0 25 12 2 13 0 22 9 4 .282 .352 .331 .683 16 Actual SEA 134 37 6 0 1 25 4 1 13 0 24 11 1 .276 .342 .343 .686 18 Amaral is a veteran utility player who gave the M's what they had a right to expect -- versatility in the field, the ability to get on base, and some speed. He became a free agent after the season and will be in an Orioles uniform in 1999. Edgar Martinez, DH, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SEA 553 177 45 1 27 115 108 10 120 14 89 2 3 .320 .446 .552 .997 141 Prorated SEA 539 173 44 1 26 112 105 10 117 14 87 2 3 .320 .446 .552 .997 137 Actual SEA 556 179 46 1 29 86 102 3 106 4 96 1 1 .322 .429 .565 .993 141 Martinez started relatively slowly (.265 and 3 HR in April) but picked up the pace as the season progressed, finishing with a typically great Edgar Martinez season. He's one of the best all-around hitters in the game, and while age will surely catch up with him at some point, he's shown no signs of slowing down. Key PitchersI was as surprised as anybody when our pre-season projections indicated that Seattle would have one of the best pitching staffs in the AL. After all, the M's were eleventh in staff ERA in 1997 and everybody knew that their bullpen was suspect. How could anyone think this could be a top staff in 1999? Well, start with the rotation. You've got an ace in Randy Johnson who was as good as anyone in baseball from 1995-7. Two good veteran starters in Fassero and Moyer. Plus Ken Cloude, who had pitched well in the minors and in a 1997 trial. True, the fifth starter was a question mark, but who has five good starters these days? All in all, if these guys were to pitch as well in 1998 as they had in recent years, this would be a very good rotation. How about the bullpen? Closer Heathcliff Slocumb was coming off a bad season. But Bobby Ayala had his second best year (3.82 ERA) in 1997. And the Mariners would have Spoljaric and Timlin for a full season (they came over from Toronto in a July/97 deal), and both had consistently posted ERAs in the threes in recent years. There was no dominant closer, and not much depth, but if the starters could consistently get the game into the seventh or eighth inning, it seemed as if this group would be able to close things out. But it didn't quite turn out that way. The Mariners rose only from 11th to 10th in team ERA, and they allowed 112 more runs than projected. Randy Johnson accounted for almost half of that increase by himself. Instead of giving the team 32-35 vintage starts, the M's received 23 performances at the league-average rate and were forced to give the ball to other pitchers for ten starts after Johnson was dealt to Houston. That's a difference of about 50 runs right there. Ken Cloude was projected to be a league-average pitcher but was hit very hard instead, and that accounts for another 25 runs. Most of the remainder can be assigned to the bullpen, where Spoljaric and Ayala were uncharacteristically lousy, Slocumb continued his decline, and Tony Fossas lost his ability to get lefties out. The only bright spots were Jamie Moyer, who won 15 games and had one of his best seasons ever, and Mike Timlin, who stepped into the closer spot at mid-season and did a good job the rest of the way. Randy Johnson, Starter, age 34ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 2.70 32 32 16 6 0 223 164 21 75 288 .205 Prorated SEA 2.70 24 24 12 5 0 170 125 16 57 220 .205 Actual SEA 4.33 23 23 9 10 0 160 146 19 60 213 .240 Actual HOU 1.28 11 11 10 1 0 84 57 4 26 116 .191 Actual TOT 3.28 34 34 19 11 0 244 203 23 86 329 .224 Even though Johnson was known to be unhappy about the Mariners reluctance to give him a long-term contract extension, I sure didn't see this coming. From 1995-7, Johnson was 43-6 with a 2.54 ERA, including a 1997 season in which he was 20-4 and 2.28 and finished second to Roger Clemens in the Cy Young voting. Instead of getting 32-35 starts of this caliber in 1998, the M's got 23 performances at the league-average rate, a difference of about 32 runs over this span. When Johnson was brilliant after his trade to Houston, Seattle management ripped Johnson for failing to give his best effort while wearing their uniform. Baseball is a game of streaks, and there are plenty of other players who started slowly and finished strong in 1998, so it's hard to say whether Johnson was dogging it in Seattle. Why would someone who's angling for a huge contract do anything less than his best? I'd like to believe that he was just in a slump. Only Randy knows for sure. Jamie Moyer, Starter, age 35ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 3.90 32 32 12 10 0 201 202 25 47 110 .263 Prorated SEA 3.90 37 37 14 12 0 235 236 29 55 129 .263 Actual SEA 3.53 34 34 15 9 0 234 234 23 42 158 .256 I like guys like this who aren't blessed with overpowering stuff but find a way to win anyway. Moyer has spent a lot of his career pitching in good hitter's parks, and his career numbers aren't all that impressive (104-93, 4.25). But he's really found his groove, going 45-17 with a 3.76 ERA in the past three years despite playing for teams based in Fenway and the Kingdome. Jeff Fassero, Starter, age 35ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 3.92 32 32 13 10 0 214 213 21 67 176 .262 Prorated SEA 3.92 34 34 14 11 0 227 227 22 71 187 .262 Actual SEA 3.97 32 32 13 12 0 225 223 33 66 176 .259 Fassero's season was right in line with past performance except for the jump in homeruns allowed. He was fortunate, however, as those extra dingers didn't translate to a higher ERA. His elbow gave him some trouble during spring training, but after resting it for a couple of weeks, he was able to take his regular turn. But it was clear that it was still bothering him, as he announced at year's end that he'd be having surgery to clean out some bone chips. Ken Cloude, Starter, age 23ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 4.73 32 32 9 10 0 173 174 27 78 148 .261 Prorated SEA 4.73 30 30 8 9 0 163 164 25 73 139 .261 Actual SEA 6.37 30 30 8 10 0 155 187 29 80 114 .297 In 1997, Cloude made the jump from AA to the big leagues and went 4-2 with a 5.12 ERA in nine starts. Based on this performance and his minor-league record, Cloude appeared ready to be a solid #4 or #5 starter. But his control worsened (it was never great to begin with) and he was tagged for a lot more hits than at any other time in his professional career. Bill Swift, Starter, age 36ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 5.16 4 4 1 1 0 23 24 3 9 10 .276 Prorated SEA 5.16 28 28 7 7 0 157 166 21 62 69 .276 Actual SEA 5.85 29 26 11 9 0 145 183 21 51 77 .306 Back in March, it wasn't clear whether Swift would be healthy and/or be able to make the team. He'd been released by the Rockies after three injury-riddled seasons in which he pitched only 189 innings, total. Swift returned to the place where his career began and made 20+ starts for the first time since 1993. Despite his 11-9 record, he wasn't all that effective, yielding 234 runners in 145 innings and averaging just over five innings per start. That's enough to stress out any bullpen, let alone one that struggled as much as Seattle's did last year. He seemed to get worse as the season progressed (3-5, 7.42 after the break), perhaps because his arm wasn't used to throwing so many innings. It will be interesting to see whether he can bounce back in 1999. Felipe Lira, Starter, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 4.80 27 27 7 8 0 161 172 21 56 101 .274 Prorated SEA 4.80 3 3 1 1 0 17 18 2 6 11 .274 Actual SEA 4.60 7 0 1 0 0 16 22 5 5 16 .319 Lira lost the battle for the fifth starter slot and was sent to AAA to start the season. He continues to give up a lot of hits, and it's not clear when or whether he'll turn the corner and become an effective major-league hurler. Paul Spoljaric, Swing man, age 27ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 4.03 70 0 5 4 1 96 87 11 49 102 .241 Prorated SEA 4.03 65 0 5 4 1 88 80 10 45 94 .241 Actual SEA 6.48 53 6 4 6 0 83 85 14 55 89 .263 Spoljaric began the year in the bullpen and moved into the rotation when Randy Johnson departed for Houston. In 1996-7, Spoljaric walked about one man for every two innings, but got away with it because he was hard to hit (91 hits in 109 innings) and didn't give up too many longballs. In 1998, his control became much worse and opponents tagged him for 14 round-trippers. The result -- yet another promising reliever going up in flames in Lou Piniella's bullpen. Spoljaric was traded to Philly after the season and is a candidate for the starting rotation in 1999. Bob Wells, Long reliever, age 31ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 5.91 40 0 2 4 0 53 64 9 17 37 .296 Prorated SEA 5.91 38 0 2 4 0 51 61 9 16 35 .296 Actual SEA 6.10 30 0 2 2 0 52 54 12 16 29 .261 Wells has never been especially good -- he didn't make the big leagues until age 28 and his ERA in three seasons was 5.30 -- so little was expected from him in 1998. The good news is that he did a pretty good job of keeping runners off base. The bad news is that it's tough to keep your ERA under 6 when you give up a homer every four innings. Tony Fossas, Lefty specialist, age 40ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 4.95 53 0 2 2 0 36 38 5 16 28 .271 Prorated SEA 4.95 18 0 1 1 0 13 13 2 6 10 .271 Actual SEA 8.74 23 0 0 3 0 11 19 1 6 10 .404 Actual CHN 9.00 8 0 0 0 0 4 8 0 6 6 .421 Actual TEX 0.00 10 0 1 0 0 7 3 0 4 7 .120 Actual TOT 5.96 41 0 1 3 0 23 30 1 16 23 .330 Historians will look back on the 1990s and note that, among other things, it was the dawning of the age of the lefty specialist -- the guy who's brought in to face one or two left-handed batters in key situations -- and Tony Fossas will be one of the prime examples. He's averaged about 2/3 of an inning per appearance and, until 1998, has been one of the best against lefty hitters. Perhaps age is finally catching up with him. Heathcliff Slocumb, Middle reliever, age 32ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 3.91 53 0 3 4 0 53 53 3 32 49 .264 Prorated SEA 3.91 69 0 4 5 0 69 69 4 42 64 .264 Actual SEA 5.32 57 0 2 5 3 68 72 5 44 51 .275 Slocumb has made a habit of starting slowly and then pitching well enough in the second half to convince someone to make him their closer the following year. In 1998, it was more of the same -- 8.15 ERA before the break, 2.23 after. With a career rate of putting more than 1.5 runners on base per inning, even his successful outings are usually an adventure. He's best suited to the closer role, since these days the closer usually gets to come into the game to start an inning and can often give up a walk and a single and still get out of the inning unscathed. Bobby Ayala, Setup man and closer, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 4.41 70 0 5 5 32 98 95 13 38 91 .256 Prorated SEA 4.41 59 0 4 4 27 82 79 11 32 76 .256 Actual SEA 7.29 62 0 1 10 8 75 100 9 26 68 .323 Ayala hasn't had a really good season since 1994. But in 1997 he was slightly better than a league-average reliever, so it seemed as if he would be an adequate setup man in 1998. It turned out that Ayala was a big part of Seattle's first-half bullpen meltdown, and unlike his mates Timlin and Slocumb, Ayala didn't come back with a strong second half. Mike Timlin, Setup man and closer, age 32ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG Projection SEA 3.38 70 0 5 3 2 77 72 8 21 57 .250 Prorated SEA 3.38 71 0 5 3 2 79 73 8 21 58 .250 Actual SEA 2.95 70 0 3 3 19 79 78 5 16 60 .264 It look Lou Piniella a while to figure out that Timlin was his best bet as closer. Slocumb and Ayala were given most of the opportunites in the first half, but when neither of them was effective, Timlin got the job and kept it for the rest of the year. But this won't do Seattle any good in 1999, as Timlin left for Baltimore as a free agent after the season. OutlookThis club could soon be at a crossroads. They were an older team in 1998, especially on the mound, and were positioned to win in 1998. That didn't happen, and it seems as if their opportunity may be passing them by. Their pitching is a big question mark, with Johnson in Arizona, Moyer and Fassero and Swift a year older, Timlin in Baltimore, and Spoljaric in Philadelphia. Butch Henry (injured for most of 1998), Jose Mesa (32 years old and didn't pitch well last year), and Mark Leiter (who turns 36 in April) are the only major additions. Offensively, they should still be able to score plenty of runs in 1999. But Joey Cora's on-base percentage is in Toronto now, Edgar Martinez will be 36, Jay Buhner's coming off elbow surgery, and it might be asking too much to expect Griffey and Rodriguez to keep doing what they've been doing. An injury to one of these guys, or just an off year, could take the wind out of their sails in a hurry. A full season from Dan Wilson plus the additions of Butch Huskey and John Mabry should help some. Longer term, the big question is whether Seattle can hold onto both Griffey and Rodgriguez. Both will command huge contracts -- almost certainly exceeding the $13-million per year just given to Mike Piazza and Mo Vaughn -- when their current deals expire. There isn't a single club in today's game that is carrying two salaries of that magnitude, and it seems a stretch to think that the Mariners have the financial resources to become the first. Given the advanced age of the team and the likelihood that they'll lose one or both of these guys if they're allowed to become free agents, one could make a case that the team should think seriously about trading both for a boatload of good young players. But it's a little too early to start thinking like that. The Mariners still have a chance to win in 1999, though all three of their divisional rivals should be stronger, and it doesn't make sense to start taking this team apart unless and until they fall out of the race. But if they wait too long, it will only delay their return to the top. |
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