1998 Post-Season Review -- San Francisco Giants

By Tom Ruane
March 11, 1999

This article takes a look at how the San Francisco Giants did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            769      845
Runs allowed        689      739
Run Margin           80      106
Wins                 89       89
Pythagorean wins     90       92
Placement           2nd      2nd

The Giants surprised the baseball world by taking the NL West crown in 1997 and it wasn't a title they were expected to defend successfully. After all, the team somehow managed to win 90 games despite giving up more runs than they scored, which meant that they really hadn't been as good as their record indicated and would have to improve quite a bit to equal that mark.

Their major off-season additions were Charlie Hayes, Orel Hershiher, Robb Nen and Steve Reed. A host of players departed, including Mark Lewis, Jose Vizcaino, Glenallen Hill, Damon Berryhill, Wilson Alvarez, Roberto Hernandez and Rod Beck. Despite the quantity and quality of players leaving, we figured they would actually be a better team in 1998 and make a run at another division title before settling for second place. And that's what happened, except the team beating them out was the Padres instead of the Dodgers.

Key Position Players

The Giants scored 76 more runs than expected in 1998. This was truly a team effort as a long list of players (including Jeff Kent, Rey Sanchez, Charlie Hayes, Bill Mueller, Darryl Hamilton, Marvin Benard and Barry Bonds) did somewhat better than expected and only one player, J. T. Snow, was even slightly worse.

Brian Johnson, C, age 30 (as of 7/1/98)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 552 137 25  3 17  48  74  6  25 10  81  0  1  .248  .284  .397  .681  59
Prorated   SFN 319  79 14  2 10  28  43  3  14  6  47  0  1  .248  .284  .397  .681  34
Actual     SFN 308  73  8  1 13  34  34  5  28  4  67  0  2  .237  .310  .396  .706  36

Johnson fractured his thumb in May and missed two and a half weeks. He was hitting only .193 with a .506 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) at the time of his injury. Shortly after returning, he had an 11 game stretch in which he went 16-40 with 8 home runs. That's more power than he normally shows, but he soon returned to form, hitting only 4 more homers the rest of the year. He made another trip to the DL for two weeks at the end of July after fracturing his thumb again.

Brent Mayne, C, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN  68  17  3  0  1   6   5  1   5  0  10  0  0  .250  .311  .338  .649   7
Prorated   SFN 287  72 13  0  4  25  21  4  21  0  42  0  0  .250  .311  .338  .649  30
Actual     SFN 275  75 15  0  3  26  32  1  37  3  47  2  2  .273  .359  .360  .719  36

Mayne had one of his better seasons in 1998 so it's perhaps a little unfair that he will be remembered primarily as the man on deck when Bucky Showalter walked Barry Bonds will the bases loaded.

J.T. Snow, 1B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 534 140 27  1 20  70  83  3  70  9 105  3  4  .262  .348  .429  .777  80
Prorated   SFN 435 114 22  1 16  57  68  2  57  7  86  2  3  .262  .348  .429  .777  66
Actual     SFN 435 108 29  1 15  65  79  0  58  3  84  1  2  .248  .332  .423  .755  62

Snow had an surprisingly good 1997 season, posting career highs in doubles, homers, runs, RBIs, walks, and both on-base and slugging percentage. After never walking more than 56 times in a year, he managed to draw 96 bases on balls that year. Fans hoping for a repeat performance were not encouraged by his slow start. On June 8th, his batting average was .193 and he had hit only 2 home runs, but a strong finish produced a season that was only a little below expectations.

He's a switch-hitter, but Snow was helpless against lefties again last season. He hasn't hit over .200 against southpaws since 1995 and his .164 mark last year was his worst yet. He has said that starting in 1999 he will bat exclusively from the left side of the plate.

Toward the end of the season, he admitted that he had been bothered by shoulder inflammation most of the year. I'm not sure that explains his slow start, but Snow has got to improve a LOT next year to be even a mediocre-hitting first baseman.

Joe Carter, 1B/RF, age 38

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection BAL 303  70 13  1 12  37  47  3  18  2  52  4  2  .231  .277  .399  .677  33
Prorated   BAL 280  65 12  1 11  34  43  3  17  2  48  4  2  .231  .277  .399  .677  30
Actual     BAL 283  70 15  1 11  36  34  2  18  4  48  3  1  .247  .297  .424  .721  34
Actual     SFN 105  31  7  0  7  15  29  0   6  0  13  1  0  .295  .322  .562  .884  19
Actual     TOT 388 101 22  1 18  51  63  2  24  4  61  4  1  .260  .304  .461  .765  53

General manager Brian Sabean picked up Carter from the Orioles in late July. After a month in San Francisco, he was hitting .159 (7-44) with no home runs. He caught fire after that, and hit .400 with seven homers between August 24th and the ninth inning of the playoff game with the Cubs, when he ended both his career and the Giant season by popping up to first.

Jeff Kent, 2B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 596 152 36  2 24  86 102 10  44  4 122  9  4  .255  .313  .443  .756  82
Prorated   SFN 536 137 32  2 22  77  92  9  40  4 110  8  4  .255  .313  .443  .756  74
Actual     SFN 526 156 37  3 31  94 128  9  48  4 110  9  4  .297  .359  .555  .914 103

Kent had a great season in 1998 and has now averaged 30 homers and 124 RBIs since coming to San Francisco two years ago in the much-criticized Matt Williams trade. Kent's totals are even more impressive when you consider that he missed a month before the All-Star break after spraining his knee in a collision with Seattle's Alex Rodriguez. In the 73 games after his return, Kent hit 24 home runs and knocked in 79 runs. A lot of people consider this a career year for him, but he did hit 29 homers in 1997 and has hit .290 or better on two other occasions.

Rey Sanchez, SS/2B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 592 143 29  1  2  59  34  3  31  6  80  9  6  .242  .281  .304  .585  49
Prorated   SFN 312  75 15  1  1  31  18  2  16  3  42  5  3  .242  .281  .304  .585  26
Actual     SFN 316  90 14  2  2  44  30  4  16  0  47  0  0  .285  .325  .361  .686  35

He was signed as a free agent before the season to help replace Jose Vizcaino, who went to the Dodgers, and while we didn't play as much as we thought he would, he did have best season at the plate.

Rich Aurilia, SS, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN  67  17  3  0  2   8   8  0   6  0  10  1  0  .254  .311  .388  .699   9
Prorated   SFN 405 103 18  0 12  48  48  0  36  0  60  6  0  .254  .311  .388  .699  52
Actual     SFN 413 110 27  2  9  54  49  2  31  3  62  3  3  .266  .319  .407  .726  55

A hot start got Aurilia the bulk of the playing time at short. His batting average was still over .300 as late as June 29th, but a .224 mark the rest of the way brought his final figures more in line with his past performances.

Bill Mueller, 3B/2B, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 389 108 21  2  5  52  36  2  42  1  56  1  3  .278  .348  .380  .728  52
Prorated   SFN 549 152 30  3  7  73  51  3  59  1  79  1  4  .278  .348  .380  .728  73
Actual     SFN 534 157 27  0  9  93  59  1  79  1  83  3  3  .294  .383  .395  .778  85

Mueller had the unenviable task of succeeding Matt Williams at third for the Giants but has hit well, despite a lack of power, in his two and a half seasons in the majors. He increased his walks quite a bit last year and now has a .300 lifetime batting average. This is almost exactly what he had done in the minors, where his yearly averages were .300, .302, .305 and .300.

Charlie Hayes, 3B/1B, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 236  57 10  1  5  23  33  1  22  1  42  2  1  .242  .307  .356  .662  25
Prorated   SFN 331  80 14  1  7  32  46  1  31  1  59  3  1  .242  .307  .356  .662  35
Actual     SFN 329  94  8  0 12  39  62  0  34  0  61  2  1  .286  .351  .419  .770  50

Hayes came to the Giants from the Yankees in exchange for two prospects after 1997 and proceeded to have his best season since leaving Coors Field in 1994. San Francisco was his fifth team in his last five years.

Barry Bonds, LF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 499 143 26  4 37 116 102  5 134 30  78 33  8  .287  .439  .577 1.016 137
Prorated   SFN 541 155 28  4 40 126 111  5 145 33  85 36  9  .287  .439  .577 1.016 149
Actual     SFN 552 167 44  7 37 120 122  8 130 29  92 28 12  .303  .438  .609 1.047 153

Bonds had another great season last year, his seventh straight with an OPS over 1.000. The last player to do that was Ted Williams. Bonds might not have been the most valuable player in 1998, but you could certainly make a good case for him being the best. Of course, the same could be said of his performance in 1997 or 1996 or just about any year this decade. A great May and a hot finish obscured a lengthy mid-season slump. From June 5th to August 1st, Bonds hit only .204 with 6 home runs in 47 games.

Darryl Hamilton, CF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 595 153 27  3  4  83  46  2  60  2  71 15  7  .257  .325  .333  .658  67
Prorated   SFN 388 100 18  2  3  54  30  1  39  1  46 10  5  .257  .325  .333  .658  44
Actual     SFN 367 108 19  2  1  65  26  2  59  0  53  9  8  .294  .393  .365  .758  56
Actual     COL 194  65  9  1  5  30  25  1  23  1  20  4  1  .335  .406  .469  .875  40
Actual     TOT 561 173 28  3  6  95  51  3  82  1  73 13  9  .308  .398  .401  .799  96

The Giants traded Hamilton to Colorado for Ellis Burks at the end of July. He was in the process of having one of the best years of his career at the time of the trade, but GM Sabean felt San Francisco already had more than their share of high on-base/low slugging percentage hitters (Bill Mueller, Stan Javier and Marvin Benard) and wanted to add an outfielder with a little more power.

Ellis Burks, CF/RF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection COL 601 179 34  6 39 126 115  6  67  1 126 18  5  .298  .373  .569  .942 125
Prorated   COL 359 107 20  4 23  75  69  4  40  1  75 11  3  .298  .373  .569  .942  74
Actual     COL 357 102 22  5 16  54  54  2  39  0  80  3  7  .286  .355  .510  .865  62
Actual     SFN 147  45  6  1  5  22  22  3  19  1  31  8  1  .306  .387  .463  .850  30
Actual     TOT 504 147 28  6 21  76  76  5  58  1 111 11  8  .292  .365  .496  .861  91

The deal for Burks is a type that used to be called a "challenge trade", one in which two players at the same position are swapped even up. These trades are ideal for second-guessers because there are no complicating factors (extra players, the scarcity or abundance of talent at different positions) to muddy the waters. Burks did well following the trade, but the Giants picked him up for his power and Hamilton ended up posting a higher slugging percentage for the Rockies than Burks did for San Francisco. Of course, Hamilton played half his games in Coors Field, but it remains to be seen how much of Burks reputation as a slugger in Colorado was a result of that park as well. He had off-season surgery on both knees and is scheduled to play right field in 1999.

Stan Javier, RF/CF, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN 644 175 33  4  8 101  66  7  71  1 103 36  5  .272  .347  .373  .720  93
Prorated   SFN 429 117 22  3  5  67  44  5  47  1  69 24  3  .272  .347  .373  .720  62
Actual     SFN 417 121 13  5  4  63  49  1  65  4  63 21  5  .290  .385  .374  .759  64

Javier got off to a very slow start and on June 15th was hitting only .226 (with a .626 OPS). The Giants were planning on benching him when he turned it around, hitting hit .360 (with a .911 OPS) the rest of the way. He's one of the players in the running for the center field job in 1999.

Marvin Benard, RF/LF/CF, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SFN  84  20  3  0  1  13   6  1  10  0  16  3  2  .238  .326  .310  .636   9
Prorated   SFN 286  68 10  0  3  44  20  3  34  0  55 10  7  .238  .326  .310  .636  31
Actual     SFN 286  92 21  1  3  41  36  2  34  1  39 11  4  .322  .396  .434  .830  52

Despite hitting consistently over .300 in the minors, Benard entered 1998 with a .252 career big-league average. His lack of success with the Giants continued through the first half of last year, but like Javier, Benard got very hot in the second half, hitting .371 after July 1st with a .940 OPS.

Key Pitchers

The Giants pitching staff allowed 50 more runs than anticipated in 1999 because of weaknesses in the starting rotation. Shawn Estes was a big disappointment, while Orel Hershiser, Kirk Rueter and Danny Darwin all performed worse than expected. On the other hand, the bullpen was a pleasant surprise, with both Robb Nen and Steve Reed pitching brilliantly.

Shawn Estes, Starter, age 25 (as of July 1, 1998)

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  2.99  32 32  14  7  0  198 161 12  93 172  .224
Prorated   SFN  2.99  25 25  11  6  0  158 128 10  74 137  .224
Actual     SFN  5.06  25 25   7 12  0  149 150 14  80 136  .269

We weren't alone in expecting great things from Estes in 1998. Usually, when a 24 year-old pitcher goes 19-5, it's a sign of good times ahead. Estes struggled in the early going and was 7-8 with a 4.42 ERA when he strained a shoulder muscle in July and missed nearly two months. He was horrible when he returned, losing all four of his decisions and posting a 8.61 ERA. He was 6-3 with a 2.66 ERA at home, compared to a 1-9, 7.44 mark on the road.

Orel Hershiser, Starter, age 39

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  4.10  32 32  11 10  0  197 196 22  58 124  .262
Prorated   SFN  4.10  34 34  12 11  0  210 209 23  62 132  .262
Actual     SFN  4.41  34 34  11 10  0  202 200 22  85 126  .259

Hershiser came over from Cleveland during the off-season and the worst control of his career caused him to allow slightly more runs than predicted. He had a great stretch of pitching in May and early June; in seven starts, he went 6-0 and allowed only six earned runs in 48 innings. Of course, that means he went 5-10 before and after that streak.

Kirk Rueter, Starter, age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  3.84  32 32  11 10  0  199 203 19  51 111  .265
Prorated   SFN  3.84  31 31  11 10  0  193 197 18  49 108  .265
Actual     SFN  4.36  33 33  16  9  0  188 193 27  57 102  .265

He posted his highest ERA since 1994, but still set a career high in wins. His lifetime winning percentage is now .655 (55-29). Among active pitchers with 50 or more wins, only Mike Mussina (.667) and Andy Pettitte (.657) have a higher winning percentage.

Mark Gardner, Starter, age 36

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  4.99  32 32   8 12  0  191 208 31  63 147  .278
Prorated   SFN  4.99  34 34   9 13  0  203 222 33  67 157  .278
Actual     SFN  4.33  33 33  13  6  0  212 203 29  65 151  .253

Although Gardner's ERAs were below 4.50 from 1994-7, he had consistently allowed more hits than innings and given up a large number of gopher balls in that span. Our projection system figured that age, plus all those hits and homers, would catch up with him, and that he'd see his ERA rise by half a run last year. As it turned out, he raised his game last year, allowing fewer hits than innings for the first time since he left Montreal after the 1992 season. It looks like he might have earned the honor of being the opening day starter for 1999.

Danny Darwin, Starter, age 42

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  4.68  21  4   3  4  0   60  65  9  15  35  .278
Prorated   SFN  4.68  54 10   8 10  0  153 167 23  39  90  .278
Actual     SFN  5.51  33 25   8 10  0  149 176 23  49  81  .297

Of the three pitchers obtained from the White Sox in their 1997 mid-season trade, Darwin was the only one to return last year. He pitched as well as expected over the first half of the season, when he went 6-5 with a 4.42 ERA. He seemed to run out of gas after that, going 2-5 with a 7.47 ERA down the stretch, and announced his retirement following the season.

Osvaldo Fernandez, Starter, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  5.19  27 27   6 10  0  147 171 19  45  84  .292

After missing much of 1997 with elbow surgery, Fernandez had elbow surgery again last May and missed the entire season. He has signed a minor league contract for 1999.

Russ Ortiz, Starter/Middle Relief, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  5.19  13  0   1  1  0   17  19  2   9  15  .284
Prorated   SFN  5.19          5  5  0   86  96 10  45  76  .284
Actual     SFN  4.99  22 13   4  4  0   88  90 11  46  75  .269

A reliever his first two years in the minors, he was converted to a starter in 1997 with mixed results. Ortiz spent much of the first half of 1998 at AAA where he went 3-1 with a 1.60 ERA. He moved into the starting rotation in July when Estes was hurt, and while he didn't pitch much better than our projection, he's still highly regarded and should be in the Giants' starting rotation in 1999.

Robb Nen, Closer, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  3.24  70  0   5  5 32   75  68  5  27  81  .242
Prorated   SFN  3.24  79  0   6  6 36   85  77  6  31  92  .242
Actual     SFN  1.52  78  0   7  7 40   89  59  4  25 110  .180

He came to San Francisco during the Florida Marlins' closeout sale, replacing Rod Beck as the team's closer. Nen seemed to enjoy his new surroundings. His ERA was under 1.00 as late as July 18th and he finished the season with 0.43 home ERA (two earned runs in 41 2/3 innings). Nen hasn't exactly been a model of consistency lately. His ERAs since 1995: 3.29, 1.95, 3.82 and 1.52.

Steve Reed, Middle Relief, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  2.67  70  0   5  2  3   78  54  9  29  61  .197
Prorated   SFN  2.67  47  0   3  1  2   53  37  6  20  41  .197
Actual     SFN  1.48  50  0   2  1  1   55  30  4  19  50  .160
Actual     CLE  6.66  20  0   2  2  0   26  26  4   8  23  .260
Actual     TOT  3.14  70  0   4  3  1   80  56  8  27  73  .194

Reed was having a great season when he was dealt to Cleveland along with Jacob Cruz in late July for Jose Mesa, Alvin Morman and Shawon Dunston. At the time, the deal made no sense for the Giants. They gave up a pitcher with a 1.48 ERA for two relievers having bad years and a washed-up reserve infielder. Reed was traded in the middle of a string of 22 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings, probably one of the longest scoreless streaks in history for a pitcher with more than one team. Arm troubles ruined his last two months, making his overall record close to our original expectations.

Because he spent five years with Colorado, where the home park inflates offense by 30-40%, a lot of people don't know how good Reed is. His ERAs were consistently better than the league average. In 1995, he posted a remarkable 2.14 ERA despite pitching at altitude half the time. He may be the best setup man in the game over the past six years.

John Johnstone, Middle Relief, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  4.15  13  0   1  1  0   17  17  1   9  16  .258
Prorated   SFN  4.15  62  0   5  5  0   82  81  5  43  76  .258
Actual     SFN  3.07  70  0   6  5  0   88  72 10  38  86  .224

Prior to last year, Johnstone had spent his five year career bouncing between the major and minor leagues. Last March, it looked as if he'd spend most of 1998 in the minors, but he turned into an important member of the Giants bullpen instead. The extra homers he allowed didn't hurt his ERA too much because held opponents to a .178 batting average with runners in scoring position.

Julian Tavarez, Middle Relief, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SFN  3.79  53  0   3  2  0   57  58  4  16  33  .267
Prorated   SFN  3.79  83  0   5  3  0   89  91  6  25  52  .267
Actual     SFN  3.80  60  0   5  3  1   85  96  5  36  52  .298

Another of the players who came to the Giants in the Matt Williams deal, Tavarez led the major leagues in games pitched in 1997. He was on a pace to appear in close to 80 games again last year before missing three weeks after the All-Star break with a strained back muscle. At the time of the injury, he had a 2.71 ERA. He struggled after his return, however, allowing 17 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings.

Jose Mesa, Middle Relief, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection CLE  3.51  70  0   6  6 39  100  97  8  33  86  .257
Prorated   CLE  3.51  41  0   3  3 23   58  56  5  19  50  .257
Actual     CLE  5.17  44  0   3  4  1   54  61  7  20  35  .282
Actual     SFN  3.52  32  0   5  3  0   31  30  1  18  28  .256
Actual     TOT  4.57  76  0   8  7  1   85  91  8  38  63  .273

Mesa was upset about losing his closer's role in Cleveland, but he professed not to mind the setup role in San Francisco after coming over in the Steve Reed deal. He pitched somewhat better after the trade but his control was poorer than expected, including three walks with the bases loaded. After the season, he signed with Seattle where he'll no doubt become their closer, a position that's been vacant for the last few years.

Outlook

The Giants attempted to keep their salary commitments within bounds last year while holding onto as many of their players as possible. Rey Sanchez left for Kansas City, giving Rich Aurilia clear title to the shortstop job; catcher Brian Johnson signed with the Reds and was replaced by incoming free-agent Scott Servais; Orel Hershiser is gone, leaving a wide-open battle for his spot in the starting rotation.

It's hard to look at the off-season moves and get a feeling that the Giants will field a better team next year than they did in 1998. On the other hand, they didn't lose all that much. They should be a little worse behind the plate, and have less depth in the infield. Except for a hot stretch in May, Hershiser wasn't very good in 1998 and shouldn't leave a gaping hole in the rotation. More important than the loss of Hershiser to the pitching staff will be Shawn Estes' ability to bounce back from his poor year. Russ Ortiz also needs to establish himself as a quality major league starter.

The keys to the Giants' offense next year will be Ellis Burks and J. T. Snow. San Francisco is counting heavily upon Burks' full recovery from his off-season knee surgeries and expect him to provide another big gun in the middle of the lineup. Since arriving in the majors in 1992, Snow has alternated between bad and good (or at least better) years. For the pattern to continue, he would have to improve upon his 1998 numbers next season. If this doesn't happen, the Giants ought to be making plans to bring in someone else.

In addition to good seasons from the players mentioned above, the Giants will also need Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent to continue to perform at their current levels. Looked at realistically, the Giants should be happy with a respectable second-place finish and a bid for the wildcard in 1999, but they won a division title in 1997 facing longer odds that they will this year.