1998 Post-Season Review -- St. Louis Cardinals

By Tom Tippett
February 25, 1999

This article takes a look at how the St. Louis Cardinals did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            765      810
Runs allowed        707      782
Run Margin          +58      +28
Wins                 85       83
Pythagorean wins     87       84
Placement           2nd      3rd

Before the season began, the Cardinals were one of the favorites to win a division in which no team really stood out. Injuries were a factor right from the getgo. The club began the season without its two top starting pitchers, Matt Morris and Alan Benes, and starting catcher Eli Marrero underwent cancer treatment in early March and wasn't available for a few weeks. A 15-11 April left them only two games off the lead, but that was their last winning month until September. By the All-star break, they were already 13 games back of the Astros, and nobody was talking about the pennant race anymore, as the focus was entirely on Mark McGwire's successful pursuit of the single-season homerun record. An 18-7 September brought the team to within two games of its preseason projection and gave it some momentum going into 1999.

Key Position Players

Mark McGwire got all the headlines, but he wasn't the only reason the Cardinals offense were 6th in the NL in scoring after finishing 11th the year before. Jordan and Lankford also had big years, and DeShields, Gaetti, Tatis, and Gant made solid contributions. Only Clayton and Mabry had disappointing seasons at the plate. Their attack would have ranked even higher if they'd been able to get anything out of the middle infielders while DeShields was hurt and after Clayton was traded to Texas. Pat Kelly, Luis Ordaz, Placido Polanco, and David Howard were among the worst hitters in the league last year, with little in the way of walks or power to supplement a collective batting average of .226.

Eli Marrero, C, age 24 (as of July 1, 1998)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 364  85 15  3 15  47  56  4  17  2  54  6  5  .234  .272  .415  .687  39
Prorated   SLN 265  62 11  2 11  34  41  3  12  1  39  4  4  .234  .272  .415  .687  28
Actual     SLN 254  62 18  1  4  28  20  0  28  5  42  6  2  .244  .318  .370  .688  30

Marrero entered spring training facing the challenge of living up to some high expectations -- he was pencilled in as the starting catcher, and there aren't many teams in history that have won anything with a rookie behind the plate. In early March, things took a much more serious turn, as a mass in his neck was found to be a cancerous thyroid. Marrero took some time off to undergo radiation treatment and then was sent down to AAA to get his game back in shape. On his return, he improved his ability to get on base but didn't produce the power he'd shown in the minors. That should come, however, and 1998 must be considered a success for Marrero, both in baseball and in life, assuming he has successfully beaten the cancer.

Tom Lampkin, C, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 111  25  3  0  3  14  12  2  12  2  14  2  2  .225  .307  .333  .640  11
Prorated   SLN 213  48  6  0  6  27  23  4  23  4  27  4  4  .225  .307  .333  .640  22
Actual     SLN 216  50 12  1  6  25  28  7  24  5  32  3  2  .231  .328  .380  .708  27

This veteran backup did a nice job filling in for Marrero. He's never hit for much of an average (.229 lifetime) but can be counted on to contribute some power and get on base at a reasonable clip.

Tom Pagnozzi, C, age 35

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 120  29  7  0  3  12  15  0   7  0  21  0  0  .242  .279  .375  .654  12
Prorated   SLN 166  40 10  0  4  17  21  0  10  0  29  0  0  .242  .279  .375  .654  17
Actual     SLN 160  35  9  0  1   7  10  0  14  0  37  0  0  .219  .280  .294  .574  13

Once one of the premier catchers in the league, Pagnozzi has found his game eroded due to a series of injuries in recent years. He hasn't played much since 1996 and hasn't hit at all in either the past two seasons. He was released by the Cardinals in August. Recent reports indicate that his shoulder has not responded to rotator cuff surgery and his career may be over.

Mark McGwire, 1B, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 501 135 24  0 54  94 116 10 111 15 146  1  0  .269  .408  .641 1.049 137
Prorated   SLN 544 147 26  0 59 102 126 11 121 16 159  1  0  .269  .408  .641 1.049 149
Actual     SLN 509 152 21  0 70 130 147  6 162 28 155  1  0  .299  .470  .752 1.222 193

What can I say that hasn't already been said? McGwire entered the season with very high expectations and shattered them with an astounding 193 runs created, 44 above the forecast level. Given the focus on the Maris record, and the fact that the Cards were out of the race by mid-season, one could easily understand it if McGwire just started swinging for the fences. But he didn't. He continued to be disciplined at the plate (career highs in walks and OBP) and posted the second-best batting average of his career.

Delino DeShields, 2B, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 582 155 23 12  9  89  52  2  60  3  97 52 14  .266  .334  .393  .728  82
Prorated   SLN 430 115 17  9  7  66  38  1  44  2  72 38 10  .266  .334  .393  .728  61
Actual     SLN 420 122 21  8  7  74  44  0  56  2  61 26 10  .290  .371  .429  .799  71

With the exception of stolen bases (and what's the point of running with McGwire coming up?), DeShields exceeded his career norms across the board in 1998. After a great first half (.318, 43 walks, 25 extra-base hits), he missed some time after July knee surgery and was much less effective in the second half (.229 average). After the season, he became a free agent and signed with Baltimore, so he'll be trying to fill Robbie Alomar's shoes next year.

Pat Kelly, 2B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR  67  15  3  0  1  11   6  1   6  0  19  3  1  .224  .297  .313  .611   6
Prorated       152  34  7  0  2  25  14  2  14  0  43  7  2  .224  .297  .313  .611  14
Actual     SLN 153  33  5  0  4  18  14  2  13  0  48  5  1  .216  .284  .327  .611  15

Kelly had some success with the Yankees in the early '90s, but injuries limited him to 141 ABs in 1996-7. He began the year in the Toronto organization but wasn't given an opportunity there. After Kelly had a terrific half-season at AAA Syracuse (.282, 17 homers, 18 SB), the Cards purchased his contract when DeShields got hurt. For the Cards, Kelly wasn't able to carry that minor-league success to the big-league level.

Gary Gaetti, 3B, age 39

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 197  51 10  1  8  25  29  3  15  2  37  1  1  .259  .318  .442  .760  27
Prorated   SLN 312  81 16  2 13  40  46  5  24  3  59  2  2  .259  .318  .442  .760  43
Actual     SLN 306  81 23  1 11  39  43  5  31  1  39  1  1  .265  .339  .454  .793  46
Actual     CHN 128  41 11  0  8  21  27  5  12  1  23  0  0  .320  .397  .594  .991  31
Actual     TOT 434 122 34  1 19  60  70 10  43  2  62  1  1  .281  .356  .495  .852  76

Despite the advancing years, Gaetti remains a good fielder and effective hitter, and there was no reason for St. Louis to be disappointed with Gaetti's play in 1998. Nevertheless, with the Cards out of the race and looking to the long term, they traded for one of the better 3B prospects in the game (Fernando Tatis) and released Gaetti a week later.

Fernando Tatis, 3B, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TEX 560 147 28  0 27  80  73  1  43  3 110 15  3  .263  .314  .457  .771  77
Prorated   TEX 321  84 16  0 15  46  42  1  25  2  63  9  2  .263  .314  .457  .771  44
Actual     TEX 330  89 17  2  3  41  32  4  12  2  66  6  2  .270  .303  .361  .664  34
Actual     SLN 202  58 16  2  8  27  26  2  24  1  57  7  3  .287  .367  .505  .872  37
Actual     TOT 532 147 33  4 11  68  58  6  36  3 123 13  5  .276  .329  .415  .744  71

A highly-regarded prospect who'd hit for average and power at every stop in his minor-league career, Tatis started a little slowly in 1998. He got better as the year progressed and found his power after coming over from Texas in a trade. Overall, his season was a little below expectations, but the trend is definitely up.

Royce Clayton, SS, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 619 164 37  4  9  80  59  3  40  4 119 35 13  .265  .310  .381  .692  71
Prorated   SLN 372  99 22  2  5  48  35  2  24  2  72 21  8  .265  .310  .381  .692  43
Actual     SLN 355  83 19  1  4  59  29  2  40  1  51 19  6  .234  .313  .327  .640  38
Actual     TEX 186  53 12  1  5  30  24  1  13  0  32  5  5  .285  .330  .441  .771  25
Actual     TOT 541 136 31  2  9  89  53  3  53  1  83 24 11  .251  .319  .366  .685  63

Clayton didn't have his best season at the plate in 1998, especially during his tenure with the Cardinals. LaRussa considered him expendable and included him in the big trade with Texas that brought Tatis and Darren Oliver. He hit better in Texas and brought his overall totals up to and slightly above his career averages. Clayton will never be an offensive force, but he has terrific range and for that reason should be able to keep his job as starting SS for a few more years.

Luis Ordaz, SS, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN  71  17  3  1  0   5   7  0   2  0   8  2  1  .239  .257  .310  .567   5
Prorated   SLN 160  38  7  2  0  11  16  0   5  0  18  5  2  .239  .257  .310  .567  11
Actual     SLN 153  31  5  0  0   9   8  0  12  1  18  2  0  .203  .261  .235  .496  10

Tony LaRussa often batted Ordaz 9th, moving the pitcher up to the #8 spot. Ordaz didn't hit well at all in 1998, but he can be a good hitter -- he was around .290 with a little power in AA and AAA, despite being young for those levels. It's not clear whether LaRussa simply had no confidence in Luis' hitting, or whether he had other reasons for using this unorthodox approach. The manager has said that he's happy with the results and will do it again in 1998, so it may have had very little to do with Ordaz and more to do with LaRussa's style.

Placido Polanco, SS/2B, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     SLN 114  29  3  2  1  10  11  1   5  0   9  2  0  .254  .292  .342  .634  12

He's young and has shown he can hit for a decent average (.280-.290 in the minors), but hasn't shown much on-base ability, power or speed so far in his career. Unless he's a late bloomer, he seems destined to be a light-hitting defensive specialist.

David Howard, IF, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 122  26  5  1  0  13  10  1  10  0  24  2  1  .213  .276  .270  .547  10
Prorated   SLN 103  22  4  1  0  11   8  1   8  0  20  2  1  .213  .276  .270  .547   8
Actual     SLN 102  25  1  1  2  15  12  0  12  2  22  0  0  .245  .322  .333  .655  11

Howard is a versatile and skilled defensive player who has never hit much (.230 career average with no walks or power to speak of) in eight big-league seasons. Even though the numbers aren't all that impressive, Howard actually had one of his better years at the plate in 1998.

Ron Gant, LF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 501 117 20  4 25  76  77  3  71  5 146 15  6  .234  .330  .439  .770  76
Prorated   SLN 379  89 15  3 19  57  58  2  54  4 110 11  5  .234  .330  .439  .770  58
Actual     SLN 383  92 17  1 26  60  67  2  51  2  92  8  0  .240  .331  .493  .825  66

If you're fixated on batting average, you probably don't think much of Gant. He spent most of 1998 below .220 and needed a strong finish to get all the way up to .240 for the year. But this is normal for Gant, and he gave the Cards a steady stream of walks and homers throughout the year. In the end, he was at the league average in on-base percentage and well above it in slugging.

Gant was traded to Philadelphia after the season and has taken several potshots at LaRussa since then. LaRussa responded angrily, with emphasis on how often Gant strikes out. My guess is that LaRussa is smart enough to know that Gant is still a valuable offensive player even with all those Ks.

John Mabry, LF/3B/RF/1B, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 423 124 22  1  8  46  48  3  35  8  71  1  2  .293  .349  .407  .756  58
Prorated   SLN 375 110 19  1  7  41  43  3  31  7  63  1  2  .293  .349  .407  .756  51
Actual     SLN 377  94 22  0  9  41  46  1  30  6  76  0  2  .249  .305  .379  .684  43

The team has been struggling for years to find a position for Mabry so they can get his bat in the lineup. He's been tried at the two corner spots in both the outfield and the infield, and while he's been getting on base at an acceptable rate (.337), he hasn't shown enough power (only 11 homers per 600 AB so far in his career) to accept any defensive limitations. He signed with Seattle for 1999, but it appears he'll have the same difficulty finding a spot in that lineup.

Ray Lankford, CF, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 499 138 36  4 27  93  90  2  86 10 129 26 10  .277  .381  .527  .908 104
Prorated   SLN 527 146 38  4 29  98  95  2  91 11 136 27 11  .277  .381  .527  .908 110
Actual     SLN 533 156 37  1 31  94 105  3  86  5 151 26  5  .293  .391  .540  .932 123

This was the second-best season of Lankford's career. He tied his career high in homers, set a personal best in stolen base percentage, and stayed healthy enough to play in more games (154) than ever before. Along with Brian Jordan, who shared the cleanup spot, Lankford regularly made opponents pay whenever they chose to pitch around McGwire.

Brian Jordan, RF, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN 575 160 30  1 16  83  90 14  33  4  92 24  7  .278  .330  .417  .747  82
Prorated   SLN 564 157 29  1 16  81  88 14  32  4  90 24  7  .278  .330  .417  .747  80
Actual     SLN 564 178 34  7 25 100  91  9  40  1  66 17  5  .316  .368  .534  .902 107

A career year. Not only were his averages higher than they've ever been, he performed at this high level for 150 games, a mark he's never before seen. And he's a terrific defensive right fielder as well. The Cards are going to miss him now that he's signed with the Braves for 1999.

Willie McGee, OF, age 39

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection SLN  71  21  4  1  1   9   8  0   4  0  14  2  1  .296  .333  .423  .756   9
Prorated   SLN 271  80 15  4  4  34  31  0  15  0  53  8  4  .296  .333  .423  .756  36
Actual     SLN 269  68 10  1  3  27  34  0  14  5  49  7  2  .253  .287  .331  .618  25

McGee batted .300 or better as a reserve in 1996 and 1997, playing about half of the time in each of those seasons. LaRussa must believe McGee's dropoff in 1998 was temporary, and not a permanent loss of skills, as McGee will be back with the club in 1999.

Key Pitchers

One doesn't need to look very hard to find the reasons why St. Louis gave up 75 more runs than projected in 1998. When the new year began, the Cardinals could look forward to a rotation of Andy Benes, Todd Stottlemyre, Alan Benes, Matt Morris, and Donovan Osborne. But Andy Benes was declared a free agent when an arbitrator ruled that his new contract wasn't signed by a key deadline. His younger brother was expected to miss a couple of starts and wound up missing the entire season. Morris and Osborne were able to make only 17 and 14 starts, respectively. The loss of Andy Benes was already reflected in the projections, but the other injuries were not, and they made all the difference.

When Benes, Morris and Osborne were unable to pitch, the ball was given to three pitchers -- Manny Aybar (6.47 ERA as a starter), Mark Petkovsek (5.77), and Kent Bottenfield (4.08) -- who were unable to fill the shoes of the guys they replaced, and one other -- Juan Acevedo (2.34) -- who was very effective while he was in the rotation. When Morris and Osborne returned, they outperformed their projections, and Stottlemyre pitched well before being dealt to Texas in a multi-player deal that brought Darren Oliver and Bobby Witt. Among the members of the opening day rotation, only Kent Mercker had a subpar year.

The bullpen was 11th in the NL in relief ERA. An early spate of blown saves from Jeff Brantley led to some experimentation that ultimately uncovered Juan Acevedo as a potentially dominant closer. He picked up 13 saves and allowed only 1 earned run in 24 innings over the last two months. Mark Petkovsek, Mike Busby, John Frascatore, Curtis King and Lance Painter formed a solid though unspectacular middle relief corps.

Todd Stottlemyre, Starter, age 33 (as of July 1, 1998)

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  3.76  32 32  13 10  0  211 196 24  80 191  .248
Prorated   SLN  3.76  24 24  10  8  0  158 147 18  60 144  .248
Actual     SLN  3.51  23 23   9  9  0  161 146 20  51 147  .241
Actual     TEX  4.33  10 10   5  4  0   60  68  5  30  57  .282
Actual     TOT  3.74  33 33  14 13  0  221 214 25  81 204  .252

Stottlemyre's best assets are durability and consistency. He's yet to have his first great year -- in fact, his 1998 ERA of 3.74 was his best ever and he's never won more than 15 games in a season. But Stottlemyre's a very useful guy to have around, as he's averaged over 200 innings since 1995 and hasn't had an ERA above 4.84 since his rookie year of 1988.

Matt Morris, Starter, age 23

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  3.68  32 32  13 10  0  213 211 13  68 156  .262
Prorated   SLN  3.68  17 17   7  5  0  111 110  7  36  81  .262
Actual     SLN  2.53  17 17   7  5  0  114 101  8  42  79  .243

Morris had a tender shoulder in spring training, but it wasn't seen as serious at the time. He was activated from the DL in early April but went right back on and ended up missing about half the season. When he came back, he was terrific. Now has a career ERA of 2.97 in 50 starts and can be regarded as the ace of the staff despite his youth.

Alan Benes, Starter, age 26

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  3.50  32 32  13  9  0  211 187 21  90 187  .239

The projection is here to give you a rough idea of what the Cardinals lost out on. Benes had surgery to repair his rotator cuff in September, 1997, and was expected to be ready by May 1st. But he was never able to make it back, and ended up with more surgery last September to correct looseness in the shoulder. It's not yet clear whether how much he'll pitch in 1999.

Donovan Osborne, Starter, age 29

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  4.34  32 32   9 10  0  180 187 23  55 125  .269
Prorated   SLN  4.34  15 15   4  5  0   84  87 11  26  58  .269
Actual     SLN  4.09  14 14   5  4  0   84  84 11  22  60  .256

The Cardinals got only half a season out of Osborne after he hurt his shoulder while running the bases in early May. He appears to be fully recovered, as his performance the rest of the way was a little better than his projections.

Kent Mercker, Starter, age 30

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  4.44  27 27   7  9  0  148 148 18  65  84  .261
Prorated   SLN  4.44  30 30   8 10  0  164 164 20  72  93  .261
Actual     SLN  5.07  30 29  11 11  0  162 199 11  53  72  .310

Mercker's control was much better than it had been earlier in his career, but opposition hitters feasted on the extra strikes he was throwing in 1998. The good news, indeed the key to his ability to hold a job despite a .310 opposition batting average, was the ability to keep the ball in the park.

Manny Aybar, Starter, age 23

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  4.56   4  4   1  1  0   24  25  2   9  18  .272
Prorated   SLN  4.56  14 14   4  4  0   84  89  7  32  64  .272
Actual     SLN  5.98  20 14   6  6  0   81  90  6  42  57  .281

Based on a strong minor-league record (his worst ERA as a pro had been 3.48), Aybar seemed ready to step in and help in 1998. His control has always been good in the minors but wasn't quite there in his big-league starts. Overall, however, it wasn't a bad debut. The ERA is a little misleading, as someone with these numbers usually has an ERA only a little north of the 5.00 mark. I think it's reasonable to expect a meaningful contribution from Aybar in 1998.

Darren Oliver, Starter, age 27

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TEX  4.50  32 32  10 12  0  206 211 25  83 124  .267
Prorated   TEX  4.50  18 18   6  7  0  113 116 14  46  68  .267
Actual     TEX  6.53  19 19   6  7  0  103 140 11  43  58  .325
Actual     SLN  4.26  10 10   4  4  0   57  64  7  23  29  .283
Actual     TOT  5.73  29 29  10 11  0  160 204 18  66  87  .311

Going into 1998, Oliver seemed to be making steady progress toward being a valuable #2 or #3 starter. He went on the DL with a muscle strain in June, so it's quite possible that he was trying to pitch through an injury and just couldn't get hitters out at less than full strength. After Texas traded him to the Cards at the end of July, he was more effective, and I don't see any reason why he won't be a valuable starter for the Cardinals in 1999.

Mark Petkovsek, Swing man, age 32

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  4.61  30  0   2  3  0   53  55  6  17  28  .274
Prorated   SLN  4.61  63  0   4  6  0  111 116 13  36  59  .274
Actual     SLN  4.77  48 10   7  4  0  106 131  9  36  55  .312

Petkovsek was 29 when the Cards gave him his first shot as a big-league starter in 1995. He pitched fairly well (6-6, 4.00) that year, but found himself back in the bullpen for most of the next two seasons. He was more effective out of the pen in 1998, but he'll have trouble holding even a relief job for much longer if he cannot find a way to reverse the trend in his opposition batting average, which has risen in two big steps since 1996. Mark is going to spring training with Anaheim in 1999.

Kent Bottenfield, Swing man, age 29

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  4.45  40  0   3  3  0   55  57  5  21  39  .269
Prorated   SLN  4.45  96  0   7  7  0  132 137 12  51  94  .269
Actual     SLN  4.44  44 17   4  6  4  134 128 13  57  98  .254

Bottenfield has played for five teams in his six big-league seasons, including two good seasons as a Cubs reliever in 1996-7. He began the year in the bullpen, but struggled in that role, then pitched fairly well as a starter (4.08 ERA) after he joined the rotation in early June.

Bobby Witt, Swing man, age 34

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TEX  5.57  44  4   5  7  0  105 125 16  43  75  .297
Prorated   TEX  5.57  31  3   3  5  0   73  87 11  30  52  .297
Actual     TEX  7.66  14 13   5  4  0   69  95 14  33  30  .328
Actual     SLN  4.94  17  5   2  5  0   47  55  7  20  28  .289
Actual     TOT  6.56  31 18   7  9  0  117 150 21  53  58  .313

Early in his career, Witt was nearly unhittable but walked more than 8 batters per nine innings. For the past five years, he's cut his walk rate in half but is consistently pounded for more than a hit per inning, sometimes much more. In 1998, he was much more effective as a reliever than as the starter he's been all his career, but that's based on only 24 innings in relief. If that wasn't a fluke, Witt might have a new lease on life coming out of the pen.

Juan Acevedo, Swing man and Closer, age 28

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection NYN  5.31  27  4   3  4  0   61  69  8  27  49  .286
Prorated        5.31  39  6   4  6  0   89 100 12  39  71  .286
Actual     SLN  2.56  50  9   8  3 15   98  83  7  29  56  .236

Acevedo was traded from the Mets to the Cardinals a couple of days before the season began. He began the year in middle relief and was so-so in that role. Then he joined the rotation in late May and pitched very well (4-1, 2.34) in nine starts. When the injured starters began to return, he was bumped from the rotation and made the closer, a role in which he was brilliant, saving 13 games and allowing only one earned run in 24 innings over the last two months. It will be interesting to see how LaRussa chooses to use him in 1999, especially now that Ricky Bottalico has arrived in a trade and will undoubtedly seek to win the closer job.

Mike Busby, Long reliever, age 25

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  6.46  21  4   2  3  0   47  62  8  23  34  .321
Prorated   SLN  6.46  19  4   2  3  0   43  56  7  21  31  .321
Actual     SLN  4.50  26  2   5  2  0   46  45  3  15  33  .256

Prior to 1998, Busby had been a starter throughout his pro career, but he hadn't had much success above the AA level. The bullpen proved to be a little more to his liking, though his ERA was still above the league average for relievers.

John Frascatore, Long reliever, age 28

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  4.88  70  0   4  5  2   94 105  9  40  64  .286
Prorated   SLN  4.88  69  0   4  5  2   93 104  9  40  63  .286
Actual     SLN  4.14  69  0   3  4  0   96  95 11  36  49  .256

With the exception of an increase in homers allowed, Frascatore's season wasn't all that much worse than the 1997 campaign in which he posted a 2.48 ERA. His runners allowed per nine innings rose only from 12.0 to 12.3, yet his ERA jumped by almost two runs. Yet another example of how volatile and misleading relief ERAs can be.

Curtis King, Long reliever, age 27

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  5.06  53  0   2  3  0   53  66  4  21  30  .310
Prorated   SLN  5.06  48  0   2  3  0   49  60  4  19  27  .310
Actual     SLN  3.53  36  0   2  0  2   51  50  5  20  28  .262

Although King didn't make it to AAA until age 26, he has had quite a few good seasons and none that were terrible. Looks like he'll be a useful big-league reliever for the foreseeable future.

Lance Painter, Lefty specialist, age 30

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  4.04  53  0   3  2  0   56  53  7  21  49  .251
Prorated   SLN  4.04  46  0   3  2  0   48  46  6  18  42  .251
Actual     SLN  3.99  65  0   4  0  1   47  42  5  28  39  .249

Painter walked a bunch more hitters than usual but was fortunate enough to keep his ERA under control anyway. Much of the credit for that goes to his bullpen mates, who allowed only 13 of Painter's 40 runners left behind to score, a rate that was a little better than the league average.

Rich Croushore, Middle reliever and closer, age 27

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     SLN  4.97  41  0   0  3  8   54  44  6  29  47  .213

Croushore had been tried as both a starter and reliever in the minors, and although he'd picked up a handful of saves over the years, he'd never been a regular closer at any level before being given that role for the Cards in 1998. His debut was quite respectable, with 8 saves in 11 tries, six holds, and an impressive opposition batting average.

Jeff Brantley, Closer, age 34

                 ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection SLN  3.12  70  0   5  3 33   75  61 10  28  84  .221
Prorated   SLN  3.12  46  0   3  2 22   50  40  7  19  56  .221
Actual     SLN  4.44  48  0   0  5 14   51  40 12  18  48  .220

It's not hard to see that Brantley's nemesis was the longball, as his other stats were right in line with projections. Those extra homers contributed to 8 blown saves in 22 chances, and Brantley lost the closer job to Croushore and Acevedo for the latter part of the season. He was traded to Philly after the year, so he'll get another chance to show that he can return to the form that saw him save 44 games for the Reds in 1996.

Outlook

This team will have a very different look in 1999. Many of the key offensive players who began the 1998 season with the Cardinals are no longer with the team. During the 1998 season, Clayton was traded and Gaetti released, and four other players (Jordan, DeShields, Gant and Mabry) departed after the year was over.

Will the offense be better in 1999? Could be, though a lot of things would have to go right. If several of the following come true -- McGwire and Lankford repeat their 1998 sucess, Eric Davis can replace Jordan's offense, JD Drew is as good as he appears to be, Edgar Renteria improves at the plate, Marrero is healthy and rediscovers his power stroke, Tatis builds on his 1998 campaign, and the new 2B (Baerga? Kelly?) is able to fill DeShields' shoes offensively -- this could be a potent offense.

The pitching will depend largely on health. A rotation of Morris, Benes, Oliver, Osborne, and Aybar could be very solid. But it looks as if Alan Benes will miss at least the first half, and substituting Bottenfield or Mercker for Benes would make this group much more ordinary. If Bottalico returns to form, it will give LaRussa some nice options. He could shore up the rotation by having Bottalico close and making Acevedo a starter, or he could have Bottalico set up for Acevedo and improve a bullpen that was 11th in relief ERA in 1998.

I think defense will be an interesting question for this team. They no longer have two players -- Clayton and Jordan -- who are among the very best at their position defensively, and an older but still very good defensive 3B (Gaetti) was released. It's possible their defense won't suffer much. Tatis made a lot of errors last year but has pretty good range. Renteria has shown occasional flashes of being a good defensive SS. Drew might turn out to be a superior RF. But I think it's reasonable to expect the defense to be noticeably weaker this year, and that will make it more difficult for the pitching staff to move from the middle of the pack (9th in the NL in runs allowed last year) to the top tier in 1999.