1998 Post-Season Review -- Tampa Bay Devil Rays

By Tom Ruane
February 22, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Tampa Bay Devil Rays did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            722      620
Runs allowed        882      751
Run Margin         -160     -131
Wins                 69       63
Pythagorean wins     65       66
Placement           5th      5th

Like the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays spent a lot of money before their first game in an attempt to shorten or eliminate the growing pains experienced by previous expansion teams. They paid $10 million for one pitcher just out of high-school and $7 million for one from the Cuban national team, signed five free-agents (Wilson Alvarez, Roberto Hernandez, Paul Sorrento, Dave Martinez and Wade Boggs), and were willing to take on the large contract of Fred McGriff, another big-name veteran.

Hopes were high at the start of the season. All five of their free agents, for example, had clauses inserted into their contracts calling for a $50,000 bonus if they were named the World Series MVP. To be fair, these clauses were probably considered somewhat whimsical by the front-office, but many thought that both Arizona and Tampa Bay would post first-year records unlike previous expansion clubs. While predicting that the Devil Rays would be able to avoid a 100-loss season, we were not optimistic about their chances to do much better than that. Their hitters would turn out to be much worse and their pitchers much better than projected, and the team finished with only 63 wins despite a strong start.

In the end, all that money didn't prevent the two new clubs from combining for three fewer wins than the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins picked up in 1993, and five fewer than the Royals and Pilots had in 1969.

Key Position Players

We expected Tampa Bay to have the worst offense in the AL, but they still scored 102 fewer runs than our estimate, finishing with by far the worst group of hitters in the major leagues in 1998. They played in a hitters' ballpark and had use of the DH but still scored fewer runs than every other American AND National League club. Paul Sorrento, Dave Martinez, John Flaherty and Kevin Stocker all did much worse than expected, and only Quinton McCracken did noticeably better.

Tampa Bay also got less out of their offense than they should have due to their poor performance with men in scoring position. Their OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) was 86 points worse with men in scoring position than it was otherwise. No other team in the league was more than 25 points worse with men in scoring position. That's actually good news in that at least a portion of their offensive woes in 1998 was probably due to bad luck and should not carry over to the next season.

John Flaherty, C, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 505 138 28  0 12  45  60  1  31  5  72  3  4  .273  .314  .400  .714  60
Prorated   TBA 309  85 17  0  7  28  37  1  19  3  44  2  2  .273  .314  .400  .714  37
Actual     TBA 304  63 11  0  3  21  24  1  22  0  46  0  5  .207  .261  .273  .534  20

Flaherty was a major disappointment in 1998, putting up by far his worst numbers, especially in the power department, since becoming a regular in 1995. He missed a month in late May and June with a dislocated thumb. He was hitting only .160 at the time of his injury and hit only .232 with a single home run in 198 at-bats after his return.

Mike Difelice, C, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 109  26  5  0  2   8  13  0   8  0  24  0  0  .239  .291  .339  .630  10
Prorated   TBA 246  59 11  0  5  18  29  0  18  0  54  0  0  .239  .291  .339  .630  22
Actual     TBA 248  57 12  3  3  17  23  1  15  0  56  0  0  .230  .274  .339  .613  21

He played more than expected due to Flaherty's injury and had a year very much like his 1997 season with St. Louis.

Fred McGriff, 1B/DH, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 538 148 28  0 22  73  92  3  63  7 107  5  1  .275  .352  .450  .802  83
Prorated   TBA 574 158 30  0 23  78  98  3  67  7 114  5  1  .275  .352  .450  .802  89
Actual     TBA 564 160 33  0 19  73  81  2  79  9 118  7  2  .284  .371  .443  .815  95

The Braves were happy to ship Fred McGriff, a native of Tampa, to the Devil Rays before last year. After hitting 30 or more home runs for seven straight seasons from 1988 to 1994, he had slipped in recent years and finished 1997 with only 22 homers. Tampa Bay was hoping the cozy confines of Tropicana Field would help McGriff regain his power stroke. For a few weeks, it looked like it might work. He hit 6 home runs in his first 13 home games and at the end of a home-stand in late April was hitting .371 with 24 RBIs in 24 games. That was as good as it would get for McGriff, who would go into a two-month slump and hit only five road home runs all season.

Miguel Cairo, 2B, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 581 146 26  2  4  80  46  8  21  0  57 31 14  .251  .285  .324  .609  54
Prorated   TBA 523 131 23  2  4  72  41  7  19  0  51 28 13  .251  .285  .324  .609  48
Actual     TBA 515 138 26  5  5  49  46  6  24  0  44 19  8  .268  .307  .367  .674  58

Cairo was supposed to be the weak link in Tampa Bay's lineup, and while he did slightly better than anticipated, it was indicative of the team's offensive collapse that several other players in the lineup had much worse seasons than him in 1998. Although a young player, Cairo was not a highly regarded prospect and had passed through four other organizations on his way to the Devil Rays.

Kevin Stocker, SS, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 504 128 23  4  5  54  44  5  53  9  96 10  4  .254  .329  .345  .674  58
Prorated   TBA 337  86 15  3  3  36  29  3  35  6  64  7  3  .254  .329  .345  .674  39
Actual     TBA 336  70 11  3  6  37  25  8  27  1  80  5  3  .208  .282  .313  .594  30

Stocker had a terrible season in 1998 as both his on-base and slugging percentage took a major step backward from his 1996 and 1997 totals. Immediately after the expansion draft, Tampa Bay sent Bob Abreu to the Phillies for Stocker, a move that the Devil Rays must wish they never made, especially after Abreu's breakthrough year in Philadelphia (17 HRs, .312 batting average, .906 OPS). Stocker's year came to an end in late August when he broke his wrist.

Aaron Ledesma, SS/2B/3B, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA  89  27  6  0  1  12  10  1   7  0  11  1  1  .303  .357  .404  .762  12
Prorated   TBA 286  87 19  0  3  39  32  3  23  0  35  3  3  .303  .357  .404  .762  40
Actual     TBA 299  97 16  3  0  30  29  1   9  1  51  9  7  .324  .344  .398  .742  38

He came into the season with a .322 lifetime batting average (in only 121 at-bats) and proceeded to do more of the same when given an opportunity to play due to Stocker's injury. Ledesma has little power and seldom walks so his batting average overstates his contribution to the team's offense.

Wade Boggs, 3B/DH, age 40

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 578 168 34  2  3  87  47  0  79  6  58  0  1  .291  .373  .372  .745  85
Prorated   TBA 420 122 25  1  2  63  34  0  57  4  42  0  1  .291  .373  .372  .745  61
Actual     TBA 435 122 23  4  7  51  52  0  46  6  54  3  2  .280  .348  .400  .748  59

Boggs went on the disabled list for the first time in his career last season when he strained his right calf and missed three weeks in late April and early May. He had suffered through only the second sub-.300 year of his career in 1997, despite hitting .362 after the All-Star break. His hot finish didn't carry over to 1998, however, and by the end of the season, Boggs had once again failed to top .300. All seven of his home runs were hit at home.

Robert Smith, 3B, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA  69  16  3  0  2   8   8  1   5  0  19  2  1  .232  .293  .362  .656   7
Prorated   TBA 377  87 16  0 11  44  44  5  27  0 104 11  5  .232  .293  .362  .656
Actual     TBA 370 102 15  3 11  44  55  6  34  0 110  5  3  .276  .343  .422  .765  54

Smith had averaged 10 home runs and a .252 BA in his last two seasons at AAA in the Braves organization, so his performance with Tampa Bay last year was a surprise. He wasn't helped by hitting in Tropicana Field, as he hit 7 of his homers and posted a .289 batting average on the road.

Rich Butler, LF/RF, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA  70  19  3  1  3  10  10  0   5  0  14  2  1  .271  .320  .471  .791  10
Prorated   TBA 221  60  9  3  9  32  32  0  16  0  44  6  3  .271  .320  .471  .791  33
Actual     TBA 217  49  3  3  7  25  20  2  15  0  37  4  2  .226  .278  .364  .643  22

Butler had a fine season in the Toronto organization in 1997, but probably wouldn't have played much if Mike Kelly hadn't been injured at the start of the year. He didn't take advantage of the opportunity, however, and was hitting poorly when he broke his hand in May, missing more than a month of action. He shuttled between the major and the minor leagues after that.

Bubba Trammell, LF/RF, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA  83  21  5  0  5  12  15  1   7  0  21  1  0  .253  .315  .494  .809  13
Prorated   TBA 195  49 12  0 12  28  35  2  16  0  49  2  0  .253  .315  .494  .809  32
Actual     TBA 199  57 18  1 12  28  35  0  16  0  45  0  2  .286  .338  .568  .906  37

Another young outfielder who saw more action than expected because of the injuries and poor play of the regulars. He had hit 28 home runs in 319 at-bats at AAA Toledo in 1997, but did not play much before getting sent down to the minors when Kelly came off the disabled list on April 21st. He was recalled in early July, however, and hit very well the rest of the way.

Quinton McCracken, CF/LF, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 602 158 21  4  5 105  63  1  72  3 127 41 16  .262  .341  .336  .677  73
Prorated   TBA 587 154 20  4  5 102  61  1  70  3 124 40 16  .262  .341  .336  .677  72
Actual     TBA 614 179 38  7  7  76  59  3  41  1 107 19 10  .292  .335  .410  .745  84

Of all the players expected to contribute on offense, McCracken was the only pleasant surprise on the team. He walked and ran a lot less frequently than he had in the past, but made up for that by hitting for a higher average and with a lot more power than anticipated. He broke Charlie Hayes' record (set with the 1993 Colorado Rockies) for most hits by a player on an expansion team.

Randy Winn, CF/LF/RF, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     TBA 338  94  9  9  1  51  17  1  29  0  69 26 12  .278  .337  .367  .704  44

Plucked from the Marlins organization in the expansion draft, Winn had never played about the AA level and didn't figure to see much action in 1998. He got called up in early May when Butler was injured and proceeded to hit very well. On August 4th, he was batting .353 (60 for 170), but hit only .202 after that.

Mike Kelly, RF/LF, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 566 136 35  2 22 101  75  4  58  2 147 26  6  .240  .313  .426  .739  80
Prorated   TBA 271  65 17  1 11  48  36  2  28  1  70 12  3  .240  .313  .426  .739  38
Actual     TBA 279  67 11  2 10  39  33  0  22  1  80 13  6  .240  .295  .401  .696  31

Kelly hit well in limited duty for the Reds in 1997 and was counted on to be a regular outfielder for Tampa Bay last year. He missed the first three weeks of the season with a groin injury and hit somewhat worse than expected when he returned.

Dave Martinez, RF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 527 154 20  6 12  87  58  3  57  5  73 14  6  .292  .361  .421  .783  85
Prorated   TBA 306  89 12  3  7  50  34  2  33  3  42  8  3  .292  .361  .421  .783  49
Actual     TBA 309  79 11  0  3  31  20  2  35  4  52  8  7  .256  .334  .320  .655  34

Martinez was coming off three straight productive seasons with the White Sox prior to joining the Devil Rays at the start of 1998. His batting average during that span had been .302 with an OPS of .811. He was having a very poor season by those standards when his season ended in late July with a leg injury.

Paul Sorrento, DH/1B/RF, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TBA 603 160 29  0 36  85 110  6  68 12 137  0  2  .265  .344  .493  .836 100
Prorated   TBA 438 116 21  0 26  62  80  4  49  9  99  0  1  .265  .344  .493  .836  73
Actual     TBA 435  98 27  0 17  40  57  3  54  1 133  2  3  .225  .313  .405  .718  56

Another free agent disappointment with Tampa Bay, Sorrento was expected to have a big season in 1998. After all, he had hit 31 home runs in 457 at-bats for Seattle the year before, and was supposed to continue to thrive in domed stadiums. It didn't happen and Sorrento finished with the worst season of his career.

Key Pitchers

Tampa Bay had one of the best pitching staffs in the American League in their first year, a stunning achievement for an expansion team. They allowed 131 fewer runs than expected, with Rolando Arrojo and Julio Santana the big surprises in the starting rotation and Albie Lopez and Rick White excelling in relief.

Wilson Alvarez, Starter, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  3.84  32 32  13 10  0  209 197 21  92 176  .250
Prorated   TBA  3.84  22 22   9  7  0  145 137 15  64 123  .250
Actual     TBA  4.73  25 25   6 14  0  143 130 18  68 107  .239

At the end of July 1997, Wilson Alvarez and Roberto Hernandez were traded from the White Sox to the Giants in a deal that ended Chicago's days as a challenger in the AL Central Division. After the season was over, Tampa Bay signed both free agent pitchers to long-term contracts worth $57.5 million. It turned into a frustrating season for the man expected to be the ace of the staff. He was 4-5 in late May when he went on the disabled list with tendinitis. He wouldn't return until after the All-Star break and would go only 2-9 over the second half.

Overall, Alvarez did not allow more baserunners than we'd expected despite giving up nearly a run a game more than predicted. Part of his problem was his performance with men in scoring position. Hitters in those situations had a .509 slugging percentage against him in 1998. He had a lot of trouble at home last year, with a 2-8 record and a 6.13 ERA.

Rolando Arrojo, Starter, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  4.75  32 32   9 11  0  193 199 24  71 104  .268
Actual     TBA  3.56  32 32  14 12  0  202 195 21  65 152  .256

The Devil Rays signed Arrojo for a $7 million bonus in 1997. He had played for the Cuban national team for 11 years prior to that and was counted on to be a productive member of the starting rotation last season. He had a great start, winning 10 games by the end of June and pitching in the All-Star game. He wore down over the second half of the season, going 11-6 with a 2.87 ERA before July 17th, but only 3-6, 4.95, after that. He missed the last two weeks of the season with arm soreness.

Tony Saunders, Starter, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  4.15  32 32  11  9  0  176 168 19  93 156  .253
Prorated   TBA  4.15  36 36  12 10  0  196 187 21 104 174  .253
Actual     TBA  4.12  31 31   6 15  0  192 191 15 111 172  .265

The number one pick in the expansion draft, Saunders pitched as well as expected but with a far worse won-loss record thanks to anemic run support (about 3.5 runs per game). He didn't win his second game until July 24th.

Bryan Rekar, Starter, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  5.27  27 27   7 10  0  147 166 19  52 100  .286
Prorated   TBA  5.27  15 15   4  6  0   84  95 11  30  57  .286
Actual     TBA  4.98  16 15   2  8  0   87  95 16  21  55  .282

Rekar missed the first half of the season with lower back problems but pitched as well as predicted (although with a poorer record) when he returned. Despite pitching in a home park that favors hitters, Rekar did much worse on the road, with a 0-4 record and a 6.18 ERA.

Jason Johnson, Starter, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  6.39  70  0   4  9  2  139 180 27  48 127  .314
Prorated   TBA  6.39  30  0   2  4  1   61  78 12  21  55  .314
Actual     TBA  5.70  13 13   2  5  0   60  74  9  27  36  .306

We thought Johnson would spend 1998 in the bullpen, but Rekar's injury gave him a chance to start instead. He hadn't pitched particularly well when a lower back problem ended his season in early July.

Julio Santana, Starter/Middle Relief, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TEX  6.23   9  0   1  1  0   17  22  2   8  11  .314
Prorated   TEX  6.23   3  0   0  0  0    6   7  1   3   4  .314
Actual     TEX  8.44   3  0   0  0  0    5   7  0   4   1  .304
Actual     TBA  4.23  32 19   5  6  0  140 144 18  58  60  .270
Actual     TOT  4.39  35 19   5  6  0  146 151 18  62  61  .272

Texas gave up on Santana in mid-April, allowing Tampa Bay to claim him on waivers. He pitched a lot better than the Devil Rays had any right to expect, going 5-2 with a 3.26 ERA before losing his last four starts.

Dennis Springer, Starter/Middle Relief, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  5.06  32 32  10 13  0  205 211 34  86 105  .268
Prorated   TBA  5.06  18 18   6  8  0  118 122 20  50  61  .268
Actual     TBA  5.45  29 17   3 11  0  116 120 21  60  46  .271

Springer was leading the league in losses during much of the first half of season before being sent to the minors at the All-Star break. He was called up a month later and pitched sparingly in relief, winning his only decision, after that.

Roberto Hernandez, Closer, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  3.12  70  0   5  4 33   75  65  6  32  81  .235
Prorated   TBA  3.12  69  0   5  4 32   74  64  6  31  80  .235
Actual     TBA  4.04  67  0   2  6 26   71  55  5  41  55  .212

Hernandez had topped 30 saves four times from 1993 to 1997 and was coming off of seasons with ERAs of 1.91 and 2.45 prior to arriving in Tampa Bay with a 4 year/$22.5 million contract. He got off to a terrible start, allowing 16 hits, 19 walks and 13 unearned runs in his first 15 innings. He had a hot streak after that, but finished up a disappointing season in which he allowed nearly a run a game more than anticipated. He was actually hard to hit in 1998, but with the poorest walk to strikeout ratio of his career.

Jim Mecir, Middle Relief, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  4.14  53  0   4  3  0   74  73  8  29  71  .259
Prorated   TBA  4.14  57  0   4  3  0   80  79  9  31  77  .259
Actual     TBA  3.11  68  0   7  2  0   84  68  6  33  77  .225

Mecir had bounced around the Yankees organization the two previous seasons, but developed a slider in 1998 and produced the best season of his short career.

Albie Lopez, Middle Relief, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  6.01  34  4   3  5  0   70  85 12  30  60  .301
Prorated   TBA  6.01  35  4   3  5  0   73  89 13  31  63  .301
Actual     TBA  2.60  54  0   7  4  1   80  73  7  32  62  .249

He was probably the biggest surprise for the Devil Rays in 1998. His career ERA in parts of five seasons with the Cleveland Indians was 5.99 and wasn't expected to slash that by more than three runs last year. He missed almost all of August with heel bursitis, but pitched well both before and after that injury.

Rick White, Middle Relief, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  6.48   3  3   1  1  0   17  24  3   5  12  .343
Prorated   TBA  6.48  11 11   4  4  0   62  89 11  19  44  .343
Actual     TBA  3.80  38  3   2  6  0   69  66  8  23  39  .253

White got called up from the minors when Alvarez went on the DL and pitched poorly (0-3, 6.91 ERA) in three starts. He moved to the bullpen after that and turned in a fine season, with a 2.98 ERA in relief.

Esteban Yan, Middle Relief, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TBA  5.95  44  4   4  7  0  101 123 16  40  94  .299
Prorated   TBA  5.95  36  3   3  6  0   83 101 13  33  77  .299
Actual     TBA  3.86  64  0   5  4  1   89  78 11  41  77  .236

Yan started 1998 on a hot streak. By the end of April, he had allowed only 2 hits in his first 14 1/3 innings. The league caught up to him somewhat after that, but like nearly all of the Devil Rays middle relief pitchers, he finished with a much better season than predicted.

Outlook

Unlike that other expansion team, Tampa Bay has spent a quiet off-season. They added Jose Canseco, and, and... did I mention that they picked up Jose Canseco? Oh, they signed few free-agents, players like Bobby Witt and Norm Charlton, to minor league contracts, but for the most part they stood pat. That's seldom a good idea when a) your team is lousy and b) your team is not particularly young. Given the lack of help available in their farm system, I must assume that their hopes for getting out of the AL East cellar rest on comeback seasons by Paul Sorrento, Fred McGriff, Kevin Stocker, Dave Martinez and John Flaherty. Since only Stocker on that list will be under thirty, the chances for significant improvement at the plate looks slim.

Their pitching staff is already one of the best in the league and they're going to need to continue to excel if the Devil Rays are going to avoid a 100-loss season. They play in a very tough division and at this point a fourth place finish seems overly optimistic.