1998 Post-Season Review -- Toronto Blue Jays

By Tom Tippett
March 8, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Toronto Blue Jays did in the 1998 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1998 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            798      816
Runs allowed        792      768
Run Margin           +6      +48
Wins                 79       88
Pythagorean wins     82       86
Placement           4th      3rd

Going into the season, there was a fair amount of optimism about this team, thanks to several free agent signings. But our analysis suggested that a .500 record would be about all that Jays fans could expect, and it seemed as if those fans had been set up for a disappointment.

There was no question that the team had upgraded the offense by adding free agents Darrin Fletcher, Jose Canseco, and Mike Stanley, and they would have a full season from Jose Cruz Jr., who had arrived in a mid-season trade the year before. But the offense had been so pathetic the year before that these additions were not enough to move the attack into the top tier.

On the other side of the ball, few teams could field a stronger 1-2 punch than Roger Clemens and Pat Hentgen, but there were lots of question marks about the rest of the rotation, especially with Juan Guzman coming off a bad year and Erik Hanson struggling to regain his form. The bullpen had been weakened by the trade of Mike Timlin and Paul Spoljaric to Seattle in the Cruz deal the year before, and the addition of expensive free agent closer Randy Myers was unlikely to make a big difference for two reasons. First, his 1997 season was out of line with the rest of his career, so it would be normal for him to come back to earth. And, second, the closer position had not been a weakness the year before, as Kelvim Escobar had saved 14 of 17 games and posted a 2.90 ERA in a half-season of closing. Myers was unlikely to improve on that.

Defensively, it was hard to get too excited about their prospects. Fletcher had always been a good hitting catcher who wasn't ever given a full-time job because of questions about his arm and other defensive skills. With Fletcher behind the plate and Delgado at first, so it would be necessary to put Canseco in the outfield to get him and Stanley in the game at the same time. And while they were blessed with a couple of good fielders (Alex Gonzalez and Shannon Stewart), you'd be hard pressed to find a single legitimate Gold Glove candidate on this team.

Sure enough, Toronto bumped around the .500 mark for the first four months of the season. With the Yankees running away with the division and the Red Sox holding down the second-best record in the league, it was clear to Toronto's management that they wouldn't be contenders in 1998. So they started to take the team apart at the trading deadline. Ed Sprague was dealt to Oakland, Randy Myers to San Diego, Mike Stanley to Boston, and Juan Guzman to Baltimore. And, lo and behold, they started to win.

It was a classic case of addition by subtraction, especially for their pitching and defense. Guzman's departure yielded a rotation slot for Escobar, who responded with a 6-2 record and a 2.35 ERA down the stretch. With Sprague gone, third base was opened up first for Tom Evans, who would have been an improvement had he not been hurt right away, and then for Tony Fernandez, who was enjoying a career year. When Fernandez moved to 3B, the 2B job went to Craig Grebeck, a terrific defensive player who chipped in a decent on-base percentage at the plate as well. And moving Stanley opened up the DH slot for Canseco, allowing them to put a much better defensive unit in the outfield. The only move that hurt the club was the switch in closers from Myers to Robert Person. With these changes, the team finished 34-18 and came within four games of taking the wild-card away from the Red Sox.

Key Position Players

Toronto's offense scored six more runs than projected in 1998, as the surprises and disappointments countered one another almost exactly. On the positive side, Carlos Delgado came back early from his injury and had a career year, Tony Fernandez had his best season ever, and three players (Shawn Green, Jose Canseco, and Mike Stanley) contributed a few more homers than they were expected to. On the other hand, Benito Santiago missed more time than expected, Alex Gonzalez had another disappointing year, and Jose Cruz Jr. got off to a terrible start and wound up spending half the season either on the bench or in AAA.

Darrin Fletcher, C, age 31 (as of July 1, 1998)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 338  89 19  0 15  38  53  5  21  3  36  0  1  .263  .313  .453  .766  46
Prorated   TOR 410 108 23  0 18  46  64  6  25  4  44  0  1  .263  .313  .453  .766  55
Actual     TOR 407 115 23  1  9  37  52  6  25  7  39  0  0  .283  .328  .410  .738  51

Fletcher was signed as a free agent to add some offensive punch, but he didn't hit for the power he'd shown in prior years. He's a guy who puts the ball in play, neither walking or striking out much. Because his on-base percentage has always been below the league average, he's needed the homers to be considered an asset as a hitter. In 1998, he got more atbats than ever before but failed to reach double digits in homers for the first time in five years.

Benito Santiago, C, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 152  39  7  0  8  18  24  1  12  1  34  1  0  .257  .311  .461  .772  22
Prorated   TOR  27   7  1  0  1   3   4  0   2  0   6  0  0  .257  .311  .461  .772   4
Actual     TOR  29   9  5  0  0   2   4  0   1  0   6  0  0  .310  .333  .483  .816   4

Santiago was expected to miss the first four months of the season after hurting his knee quite badly in a January auto accident, but he didn't make it back until September. Before the season started, his injury was considered a big loss, but Kevin Brown and Mark Dalesandro softened the blow considerably when they combined for a higher slugging percentage than Santiago posted in 1997.

Kevin Brown, C, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR  75  16  3  0  4  10  10  1   7  0  22  0  0  .213  .286  .413  .699   9
Prorated   TOR 114  24  5  0  6  15  15  2  11  0  34  0  0  .213  .286  .413  .699  14
Actual     TOR 110  29  7  1  2  17  15  2   9  0  31  0  1  .264  .320  .400  .720  15

Brown entered 1998 with only 7 major-league atbats under his belt, but he'd established his credentials as a hitter by smacking 45 homers in 863 minor-league atbats (AA and AAA) in 1996-7. He hit pretty well for the Jays in his first shot at a backup job, and that made it easier for the club to let Santiago depart as a free agent after the season.

Mark Dalesandro, C, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     TOR  67  20  5  0  2   8  14  0   1  0   6  0  0  .299  .304  .463  .767   8

Dalesandro wasn't even on our radar screen last spring. He had logged a grand total of 35 big-league atbats prior to 1998, hadn't played in the big leagues since 1995, and sported a .171 career batting average. But when he began the season by hitting .268 with 10 homers in 168 atbats at AAA Syracuse, he earned a promotion when Fletcher got hurt in early June. And he continued to hit quite well in a limited role after his arrival.

Carlos Delgado, 1B, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 419 110 29  2 25  61  76  5  49  5 110  0  2  .263  .343  .520  .863  76
Prorated   TOR 543 143 38  3 32  79  99  6  64  6 143  0  3  .263  .343  .520  .863  98
Actual     TOR 530 155 43  1 38  94 115 11  73 13 139  3  0  .292  .385  .592  .978 126

Last March, reports indicated that Delgado wouldn't be able to play until June because of January shoulder surgery. But Delgado worked very hard on his rehab and was able to return to the lineup on April 24th. As you can see, his early return was a big plus for the team. Not only did he get 111 more atbats than expected, he also came through with a breakout season, setting career highs in every major category. All in all, this was one of the biggest upside surprises in the majors last year.

Tony Fernandez, 2B/3B, age 36

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 622 165 33  3 14  82  65  3  41  1  71  9  9  .265  .311  .395  .707  72
Prorated   TOR 503 134 27  2 11  66  53  2  33  1  57  7  7  .265  .311  .395  .707  58
Actual     TOR 486 156 36  2  9  71  72 11  45  5  53 13  8  .321  .387  .459  .846  87

It's not often that a player has his career year at age 36, but Fernandez did just that in 1998. He set new highs in OBP and SPC and fell one point short of matching his career best batting average. And he did it while playing more than in any season since 1993.

Craig Grebeck, 2B, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR  96  24  6  0  1   9   7  1  11  1  12  0  0  .250  .330  .344  .674  11
Prorated   TOR 295  74 18  0  3  28  22  3  34  3  37  0  0  .250  .330  .344  .674  34
Actual     TOR 301  77 17  2  2  33  27  4  29  0  42  2  2  .256  .327  .346  .673  35

Grebeck has always been one of my favorite players. He's a terrific defensive 2B who can also play the other infield positions quite well. He's not a great hitter but gets the most out of his ability by taking enough walks to post a career OBP near the league average. This is the first time anyone has given him a chance to play semi-regularly, and word out of Toronto is that the starting 2B job is Grebeck's to lose despite the acquisitions of Joey Cora and Homer Bush.

Ed Sprague, 3B, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 529 121 30  2 20  69  65  9  52  1 115  0  0  .229  .306  .406  .713  67
Prorated   TOR 373  85 21  1 14  49  46  6  37  1  81  0  0  .229  .306  .406  .713  48
Actual     TOR 382  91 20  0 17  49  51 11  24  1  73  0  2  .238  .301  .424  .725  45
Actual     OAK  87  13  5  0  3   8   7  2   2  1  17  1  0  .149  .187  .310  .497   5
Actual     TOT 469 104 25  0 20  57  58 13  26  2  90  1  2  .222  .280  .403  .683  49

I'll bet the Jays considered Sprague's season a major disappointment despite the fact that he wasn't projected to hit much and actually exceeded that projection by a narrow margin. After all, he belted 36 homers as recently as 1996. But that 1996 season was an anomoly, he hasn't batted .250 in any season since 1993, he doesn't walk much, and he's in the decline phase of his career. With a promising prospect (Tom Evans) waiting in the wings, they finally moved Sprague out in a trade. He signed with Pittsburgh for 1999, and they appear ready to hand him their 3B job ahead of super-prospect Aramis Ramirez.

Tom Evans, 3B, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR  65  15  3  0  2  10   9  1   9  0  18  0  0  .231  .333  .369  .703   9
Prorated   TOR  10   2  0  0  0   1   1  0   1  0   3  0  0  .231  .333  .369  .703   1
Actual     TOR  10   0  0  0  0   0   0  0   1  0   2  0  0  .000  .091  .000  .091   0

Although Evans wasn't projected to play much, and didn't, I've included him here because he's the heir apparent at 3B if he's healthy. His health is a question mark, however, as he had shoulder surgery in 1997 and found his 1998 debut delayed by a series of less serious problems. In two AAA seasons, he's averaged over .280 with plenty of walks and decent power, so he appears to be a step up from Sprague offensively. If he's healthy.

Alex Gonzalez, SS, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 511 123 28  4 16  59  52  5  44  1 122 16  7  .241  .306  .405  .711  63
Prorated   TOR 550 132 30  4 17  64  56  5  47  1 131 17  8  .241  .306  .405  .711  68
Actual     TOR 568 136 28  1 13  70  51  6  28  1 121 21  6  .239  .281  .361  .642  57

Once one of the most highly regarded SS prospects in the game, Gonzalez is still waiting for his first good season at the plate. You have to give him credit for consistency, however, as his averages in his four full seasons have been .243, .235, .239 and .239. His walk rate dropped in 1998 and he failed to do anything else to compensate, so his overall production was lower than expected.

Shannon Stewart, LF/CF, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 579 160 34  8  8  94  61  8  74  3  77 36 13  .276  .363  .404  .768  91
Prorated   TOR 524 145 31  7  7  85  55  7  67  3  70 33 12  .276  .363  .404  .768  83
Actual     TOR 516 144 29  3 12  90  55 15  67  1  77 51 18  .279  .377  .417  .794  89

I don't understand why Toronto waited until 1998 to make this guy a starter. By the spring of 1997, Stewart had established the ability to hit in the .280s with an OBP near .400 and a decent amount of doubles and triples power. Yet Cito Gaston chose to give a lot of atbats to guys like Ruben Sierra, Robert Perez, Jacob Brumfield, Otis Nixon, and a rapidly declining Joe Carter. In 1998, Gaston was gone and Stewart was starting, and Stewart helped prove that minor-league stats can be used predict performance at the major-league level.

Jose Cruz Jr., CF, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 604 145 31  3 33  94 100  0  71  4 153 10  1  .240  .318  .465  .783  92
Prorated   TOR 366  88 19  2 20  57  61  0  43  2  93  6  1  .240  .318  .465  .783  56
Actual     TOR 352  89 14  3 11  18  42  0  57  3  99 11  4  .253  .354  .403  .757  56

Cruz got off to a terrible start in 1998 and was sent down to AAA in June to get enough playing time to work on his game. That trip was a success, as Cruz posted a slugging percentage over .550 in Syracuse and came back to hit .366 with 17 extra-base hits for the Jays in August. That little spurt was his entire season. He slumped again in September. This kid clearly has power, but he strikes out at a prodigious rate, and is unlikely to get much to hit until he begins to control the strike zone a little better. There are signs that he might be able to do that, as his walk rate shot up last year, especially later in the season.

Shawn Green, RF/CF, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 611 172 39  4 21  79  74  5  46  5 125 12  3  .282  .335  .462  .796  97
Prorated   TOR 631 178 40  4 22  82  76  5  48  5 129 12  3  .282  .335  .462  .796 100
Actual     TOR 630 175 33  4 35 106 100  5  50  2 142 35 12  .278  .334  .510  .844 109

In 1998, Green added power, turning some of his doubles into homers and adding a few more dingers for good measure. He also discovered that his 78% career SB success rate was no fluke, as he was able to maintain a good rate while running three times as often. I'm not sure Green will be a consistent 35 homer guy, but he should be a very good hitter in this league for a long time even if his 1998 homerun rate turns out to be an anomoly.

Felipe Crespo, RF/LF/2B, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR  65  16  3  0  2  10   7  1   8  0   9  2  1  .246  .333  .385  .718   9
Prorated   TOR 133  33  6  0  4  20  14  2  16  0  18  4  2  .246  .333  .385  .718  18
Actual     TOR 130  34  8  1  1  11  15  2  15  1  27  4  3  .262  .342  .362  .704  17

Unable to break into the lineup as an everyday 2B or 3B, Crespo was turned into a utility player in 1998 and came through with an offensive performance that was pretty much in line with his projections, which were based primarily on his minor-league record since he'd had only 77 big-league ABs prior to last season.

Jose Canseco, DH/LF/RF, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 543 130 27  0 33  79 102  6  73  3 159  7  2  .239  .333  .471  .805  86
Prorated   TOR 570 136 28  0 35  83 107  6  77  3 167  7  2  .239  .333  .471  .805  90
Actual     TOR 583 138 26  0 46  98 107  6  65  5 159 29 17  .237  .318  .518  .836  95

Canseco got lots of press for (a) staying healthy, (b) hitting 46 homers, and (c) stealing 29 bases. But he produced only five more runs than projected because his batting average remained low, he didn't walk as much, and his stolen bases were a liability because his percentage (63%) was below the breakeven point. And while his improved health made him less of a weakness defensively, his range in the outfield was still well below average. Don't get me wrong. Jose was a valuable player last year, especially when he was DHing. It's just that he wasn't as valuable as some would have you believe.

Mike Stanley, DH/1B, age 35

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection TOR 250  61 14  0 10  41  41  3  40  3  51  0  0  .244  .351  .420  .771  38
Prorated   TOR 342  83 19  0 14  56  56  4  55  4  70  0  0  .244  .351  .420  .771  52
Actual     TOR 341  82 13  0 22  49  47  5  56  3  86  2  1  .240  .353  .472  .825  60
Actual     BOS 156  45 12  0  7  25  32  2  26  2  43  1  0  .288  .388  .500  .888  31
Actual     TOR 497 127 25  0 29  74  79  7  82  5 129  3  1  .256  .364  .481  .845  91

I was surprised when Toronto signed Stanley before the 1997 season. They already had what they needed in 1B/DH types (primarily Delgado and Canseco) and they didn't seem inclined to have Stanley do any catching. So where was he going to play? Well, he played 1B when Delgado was hurt and they made room by putting Canseco in the outfield quite a bit. And Stanley rewarded the club by poking a few extra homers and maintaining his other numbers at his established level. When the team dropped out of the race, they traded him to Boston for a couple of the Red Sox better pitching prospects. All in all, the Jays got real value out of this signing.

Key Pitchers

Despite a very disappointing season from Pat Hentgen, who was ineffective as he tried to pitch through an injury, the Jays allowed 24 fewer runs than we projected them to, as Roger Clemens had another outstanding year, Kelvim Escobar was terrific after being inserted into the rotation in August, and Chris Carpenter emerged as a legitimate third or fourth starter. The bullpen was a little worse than the league average despite strong contributions from Paul Quantrill and Dan Plesac.

Roger Clemens, Starter, age 35 (as of July 1, 1998)

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  2.91  32 32  16  8  0  235 194 14  79 257  .226
Prorated   TOR  2.91  32 32  16  8  0  235 194 14  79 257  .226
Actual     TOR  2.65  33 33  20  6  0  235 169 11  88 271  .198

Two years ago, Dan Duquette decided not to give Clemens a four-year contract because it's well known that the average 33-year-old pitcher doesn't last another four years. Dan described Roger as being in the twilight of his career, but Dan was forgetting one very important thing. Clemens is not an average pitcher. And the typical 33-year-old Hall-of-Fame-caliber pitcher remains quite effective until his early 40s. So a four-year contract at $6-7 million per year would have been a good gamble. As you all know, Clemens responded by signing with Toronto and made a stunning return to peak form, winning back-to-back Cy Young awards and taking home the pitching triple crown (W, ERA, K) two years running.

Now Roger is taking his arm to New York, and it'll be interesting to see how he does there. The odds are against anyone having a third straight season at such a high level, and if he should slip a little and turns out to be merely very good, I hope he doesn't get crucified for it.

Pat Hentgen, Starter, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  3.87  32 32  14 11  0  228 224 24  73 147  .258
Prorated   TOR  3.87  27 27  12  9  0  189 186 20  60 122  .258
Actual     TOR  5.17  29 29  12 11  0  178 208 28  69  94  .293

Hentgen spent the season pitching with a tender elbow and sore shoulder, and it showed. In the past six years, Hentgen has had two very good seasons, then one bad one, then two more very good ones, and another bad one. For his sake, let's hope the pattern continues and he's ready to have two more good years.

Woody Williams, Starter, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  5.07  32 32   9 12  0  190 203 32  68 135  .273
Prorated   TOR  5.07  34 34  10 13  0  204 218 34  73 145  .273
Actual     TOR  4.46  32 32  10  9  0  210 196 36  81 151  .245

Our system projected a 5.07 ERA for Williams despite the fact that he'd never posted an ERA above 4.73 in his career. Why? Two reasons. First, in 1997, he allowed 267 baserunners and 31 homers in 195 innings, and that normally translates into an ERA in the upper 4's. Second, he turned 31 last year, and most pitchers are in the decline phase of their careers by that time. But Williams actually improved his game a little by cutting down on the hits allowed by enough to offset the increase in walks and homers allowed.

Juan Guzman, Starter, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  3.83  32 32  10  8  0  167 150 23  64 141  .241
Prorated   TOR  3.83  29 29   9  7  0  150 135 21  57 127  .241
Actual     TOR  4.41  22 22   6 12  0  145 133 19  65 113  .239
Actual     BAL  4.23  11 11   4  4  0   66  60  4  33  55  .241
Actual     TOT  4.35  33 33  10 16  0  211 193 23  98 168  .240

Guzman's career has been marked by some outstanding seasons, when his control was excellent, some mediocre seasons, when his control faltered, and some seasons partially lost to injury. In 1998, he stayed healthy, but his control wasn't great and he had one of those mediocre seasons.

Erik Hanson, Starter, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  4.55  44 27  10 10  0  198 206 23  80 153  .271
Prorated   TOR  4.55  13  8   3  3  0   56  59  7  23  43  .271
Actual     TOR  6.24  11  8   0  3  0   49  73 10  29  21  .348

Hanson has been trying to battle back from a shoulder injury that cost him almost the entire 1997 season. At this point, it's not clear whether he'll ever make it back to his peak form. His last decent year was 1995, and it's been five years since he last posted an ERA that was more than a few points below the league average.

Chris Carpenter, Starter, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  5.96   4  4   1  2  0   23  27  3  12  18  .300
Prorated   TOR  5.96  29 29   7 14  0  162 193 21  86 128  .300
Actual     TOR  4.37  33 24  12  7  0  175 177 18  61 136  .265

Carpenter made a nice step forward from 1997, when he allowed 145 baserunners in only 81 innings. His control improved considerably. In fact, this is the lowest walk rate he's posted in his professional career, at any level. And he wasn't just serving up fat pitches, either, as he cut his hits and homers allowed at the same time.

Roy Halladay, Starter, age 21

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     TOR  1.93   2  2   1  0  0   14   9  2   2  13  .176

Normally, I wouldn't mention a pitcher who made only two starts. But Halladay made news by taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning on the last day of the season. Although he's still very young, he already has two seasons at AAA under his belt. He may not be ready to be a dominant pitcher in the big leagues just yet, but he appears to be one of the best pitching prospects on the horizon and has earned a shot at the rotation for 1999.

Kelvim Escobar, Swing man, age 22

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  4.33  53  0   4  5  0   71  70  6  43  76  .260
Prorated   TOR  4.33  57  0   4  5  0   76  75  6  46  82  .260
Actual     TOR  3.73  22 10   7  3  0   80  72  5  35  72  .238

Another promising young pitcher in the Toronto system, Escobar broke in as a closer in 1997 and was terrific in that role. But they've always seen him as a starting pitcher, and he was moved into the rotation when Juan Guzman was traded to Baltimore last year. Oddly enough, the Jays engaged in a flurry of trading-deadline deals (dumping Sprague, Myers, Guzman, Tony Phillips) because they believed they were hopelessly out of the race. But the youngsters who stepped into the void made the team instantly better. Escobar was a big part of the resurgence, going 6-2 with a 2.35 ERA in ten starts down the stretch. It was almost enough to enable the Jays to catch Boston for the wild card.

Dave Stieb, Swing man, age 40

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Actual     TOR  4.83  19  3   1  2  2   50  58  6  17  27  .284

OK, I want to see a show of hands. Everyone who figured last March that Dave Stieb would pitch 50 innings for the Jays, put up your hand now. Nobody? Well, I'm not surprised. After all, Stieb had been out of the game for four full seasons and was in camp only as an instructor. The story goes that he was teaching the young pitchers how to throw that great curve ball of his, and he discovered that he could still throw it better than anyone else on the team. After an extended spring training and a couple of months in the minors, Stieb was called up in June. He didn't embarrass himself, but he wasn't all that great, either, and he recently decided to re-retire from the game.

Robert Person, Long reliever and closer, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  4.94   4  4   1  1  0   24  22  4  11  19  .244
Prorated   TOR  4.94   7  7   2  2  0   42  39  7  19  34  .244
Actual     TOR  7.04  27  0   3  1  6   38  45  9  22  31  .294

Person was a candidate for the last rotation spot in spring training and wound up in the bullpen after Carpenter won the job as fifth starter. By mid-season, Person was in AAA being groomed as a closer. He picked up six saves toward the end of the year, but didn't pitch all that well. Nevertheless, the closer job is his to lose as he enters the 1999 season.

Carlos Almanzar, Middle reliever, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  4.76  25  0   1  1  0   17  19  2   6  17  .284
Prorated   TOR  4.76  43  0   2  2  0   29  33  3  10  29  .284
Actual     TOR  5.34  25  0   2  2  0   29  34  4   8  20  .286

Almanzar wasn't expected to play a major role, and didn't. He wasn't expected to pitch very well, and didn't. But he's still young and has had a lot of success as a AAA reliever the past two seasons (1.86 ERA in 102 innings), so he'll get plenty of chances to prove he can do the same in the big leagues.

Bill Risley, Middle reliever, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  5.18  30  0   2  2  0   40  38  9  22  36  .248
Prorated   TOR  5.18  41  0   3  3  0   54  52 12  30  49  .248
Actual     TOR  5.27  44  0   3  4  0   55  52  7  34  42  .259

With the Mariners in 1994-5, Risley was one of the best setup men in the game. He came to the Jays and pitched well in 1996 before running into shoulder problems that required surgery. He hasn't been the same since, and it remains to be seen whether he'll ever be able to return to top form.

Dan Plesac, Setup man, age 36

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  3.78  70  0   2  2  1   50  48  6  17  54  .253
Prorated   TOR  3.78  68  0   2  2  1   48  46  6  16  52  .253
Actual     TOR  3.78  78  0   4  3  4   50  41  4  16  55  .224

Plesac deserved an ERA that was a run better than his actual 3.78 mark. He held opposing hitters to a .224 average, walked less than one man every three innings, and gave up a homer only once every 12.5 innings. He was much better before the All-star break (2.93) than after (5.12)

Paul Quantrill, Setup man, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  5.23  70  0   3  4  1   72  87  9  21  44  .301
Prorated   TOR  5.23  77  0   3  4  1   79  95  0  23  48  .301
Actual     TOR  2.59  82  0   3  4  7   80  88  5  22  59  .285

For the second year in a row, Quantrill has posted a very low ERA despite giving up a lot of hits. Two reasons -- very good control and a low homerun rate -- are his to brag about. But he also got a lot of help -- the pitchers who followed him allowed only 3 of 36 runners to score in 1998. If those runners had scored at the league average rate, Quantrill would have given up 8 more runs than he did, and if they were all earned, his ERA would have been 3.17. I don't mean to take anything away from Quantrill, because a 3.17 ERA is still very good, but it just goes to show you how much a reliever's ERA can fluctuate due to factors other than his own performance. His put his 1999 season, and his salary, in jeopardy when he broke his leg in a snowmobiling accident in January.

Randy Myers, Closer, age 35

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG
Projection TOR  3.42  70  0   5  5 30   74  68  6  32  79  .245
Prorated   TOR  3.42  42  0   3  3 18   44  41  4  19  48  .245
Actual     TOR  4.46  41  0   3  4 28   42  44  4  19  32  .265
Actual     SDN  6.28  21  0   1  3  0   14  15  2   7   9  .273
Actual     TOT  4.92  62  0   4  7 28   56  59  6  26  41  .267

In 1997, Myers saved 45 games in 46 chances. He was good that year -- allowing only 47 hits, 22 walks, and 2 homers in 60 innings -- but he wasn't as good as his 1.51 ERA suggested. As a result, and because of his age, his projected ERA for 1998 was 3.42, which was a little higher than his career ERA through the end of the 1997 season. Before the trade to San Diego, Myers saved a respectable 28 games in 33 chances and missed his projection by three hits allowed. But because of the big contract and some unreasonably lofty expectations, this was considered a major disappointment. In my opinion, the Padres are the ones with the legitimate gripe. For the Jays, Myers was just about as good as one could reasonably expect.

Outlook

For most of the winter, Toronto was seen as a team that was rapidly moving into contender status, thanks mainly to the development of young players on both sides of the ball -- Delgado, Stewart and Green offensively, Escobar and Carpenter on the hill -- and their strong finish in 1998. But there was a lot of turmoil behind the scenes, with the owners failing to nail down a budget in time for the club to participate in the free agent season, manager Tim Johnson's admission that he had fabricated many of his war stories, and the bankruptcy of their home park. Now that Roger Clemens has been traded to the Yankees and Canseco's 46 homers have migrated south to Tampa Bay, it seems a little more difficult to take them seriously.

If the starting rotation is to be good, David Wells must prove that his 1997 season was't a fluke, Pat Hentgen needs to bounce back, and Joey Hamilton needs to live up to the promise he showed in his rookie season in 1995, and the other young pitchers must continue to develop. All of this is possible, though it's hard to count on so many things going right. The addition of Graeme Lloyd to the bullpen should help, but it's hard to find other reasons to believe that the bullpen can go from a weakness to a strength. Offensively, they still have a nucleus of good young players, and if they can come up with a DH to replace Jose Canseco, they can prevent their attack from regressing.

But are they a contender? We'll have a better idea when we run our 1999 computer simulations in a week or two, but I have my doubts about their ability to do more than maintain their current position as a middle-of-the-pack club that might get in the wildcard race if a lot of things go right.