Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Arizona Diamondbacks Written by Sherri Nichols Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 749 908 Runs allowed 734 696 Run margin +15 +212 Wins 83 100 Pythagorean Wins 83 104 Placement 3rd 1st A busy off-season brought some much-needed help to the pitching staff and the offense, and some key regulars came through with career years. Now, the challenge is, can Arizona do it again? The problem with building a playoff team out of an expansion team this quickly is that you have to do it with older players; your farm system hasn't been around long enough to start producing sufficient major-league talent, and the players you can pick up via free-agency or trade are 30+ veterans with big price tags. You can get to the playoffs in a hurry, if you can stay healthy, but those 30something players are more likely to get hurt, and are on the downside of their careers. Arizona's 30somethings did stay healthy last year, and they did produce several career years, and Arizona blew away their projections. I wouldn't bet on it all happening again next year. Key Position PlayersArizona experienced an offensive explosion this season, led by a collection of veterans -- Jay Bell, Matt Williams, and Luis Gonzalez -- who had outstanding seasons. Of the regulars, only Travis Lee had a bad year, and his difficulties opened up playing time for Erubiel Durazo, who made life miserable for pitchers from AA to AAA to the majors. Damian Miller, C, age 29 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 89 23 5 0 1 9 13 1 6 0 19 0 0 .258 .309 .348 .658 10 Prorated Ari 293 75 16 0 3 29 42 3 19 0 62 0 0 .256 .305 .341 .646 31 Actual Ari 296 80 19 0 11 35 47 2 19 3 78 0 0 .270 .316 .446 .762 41 Kelly Stinnett, C, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 473 118 24 2 21 69 67 12 61 4 126 1 2 .249 .347 .442 .789 74 Prorated Ari 272 67 13 1 12 39 38 6 35 2 72 0 1 .246 .343 .434 .777 41 Actual Ari 284 66 13 0 14 36 38 5 24 2 83 2 1 .232 .302 .426 .728 37 Rod Barajas, C, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Ari 16 4 1 0 1 3 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 .250 .294 .500 .794 2 Neither Miller nor Stinnett set the world on fire offensively, but catchers who perform well offensively are hard to find. Stinnett had projected to be the regular, but his lack of offense opened up time for Miller. Both Miller and Stinnett appeared to be adequate defensively, but in the long run, catcher is an area the Diamondbacks will need to improve if they want to get to the Series. The improvement might come from Barajas, who put up some good numbers in the offense-happy Texas League, and who is young enough that you expect some more development out of him. It seems unlikely that he'll ever be more than adequate offensively, though. Travis Lee, 1b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 566 154 21 2 27 76 80 1 75 5 131 7 1 .272 .358 .459 .817 94 Prorated Ari 383 104 14 1 18 51 54 0 50 3 88 4 0 .272 .356 .454 .810 62 Actual Ari 375 89 16 2 9 57 50 0 58 4 50 17 3 .237 .337 .363 .700 49 Erubiel Durazo, 1b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Ari 155 51 4 2 11 31 30 1 26 1 43 1 1 .329 .422 .594 1.015 41 Greg Colbrunn, 1b/ph, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 71 20 4 0 2 7 9 1 3 0 12 1 1 .282 .320 .423 .743 9 Prorated Ari 144 40 8 0 4 14 18 2 6 0 24 2 2 .278 .316 .417 .732 17 Actual Ari 135 44 5 3 5 20 24 4 12 0 23 1 1 .326 .392 .519 .911 28 Travis Lee had a disappointing year for a young player expected to be a cornerstone of the franchise. Even before going out with injury, Lee struggled. He's still young enough to bounce back, and with the investment the Diamondbacks made in him, they're unlikely to give up on him quickly. But he may have to do it at another position: the Diamondbacks want him to play outfield this winter, which would make room for Durazo. Durazo's emergence helped take the sting out of Lee's disappointing season. He made the jump from AA to AAA to the majors, hitting at every stop along the way. The only caveat is that he didn't get many at-bats against lefties, and showed a substantial platoon differential in the few he did get. Colbrunn provided the kind of solid bench performance a winning team needs. Jay Bell, second base, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 607 155 31 3 20 84 79 7 80 3 134 6 6 .255 .346 .415 .761 89 Prorated Ari 592 151 30 2 19 81 77 6 78 2 130 5 5 .255 .345 .409 .754 85 Actual Ari 589 170 32 6 38 132 112 4 82 2 132 7 4 .289 .374 .557 .931 127 Bell put up the best numbers of his career, numbers that were top of the league among second basemen in several categories. However, at his age, it's likely that this represents a one-time blip from a good player, and Arizona will probably be disappointed if they expect this level of performance next year. A more likely scenario is that Bell returns to about the league average for second basemen. [TT: Bell's previous high for homers in a season was 21, so when he had 22 by the end of June, I kept waiting for that big slump that would bring him back to earth. It never happened, and his second half was almost as good as his first.] Tony Batista, shortstop, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 552 145 30 3 24 82 71 5 40 0 100 5 4 .263 .316 .458 .774 77 Prorated Ari 149 39 8 0 6 22 19 1 10 0 27 1 1 .262 .311 .436 .747 19 Actual Ari 144 37 5 0 5 16 21 2 16 3 17 2 0 .257 .335 .396 .731 21 Prorated Tor 373 98 20 2 16 55 48 3 27 0 67 3 2 .263 .315 .456 .771 51 Actual Tor 375 107 25 1 26 61 79 4 22 1 79 2 0 .285 .328 .565 .893 67 Prorated Tot 523 137 28 2 22 77 67 4 37 0 94 4 3 .262 .313 .449 .763 70 Actual Tot 519 144 30 1 31 77 100 6 38 4 96 4 0 .277 .330 .518 .848 88 Andy Fox, ss, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 111 29 4 1 2 17 9 3 12 0 22 5 2 .261 .349 .369 .719 16 Prorated Ari 279 73 10 2 5 42 22 7 30 0 55 12 5 .262 .348 .366 .714 38 Actual Ari 274 70 12 2 6 34 33 9 33 10 61 4 1 .255 .351 .380 .731 39 Hanley Frias, ss, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 90 20 2 1 0 10 6 0 7 0 14 4 2 .222 .276 .267 .542 7 Prorated Ari 163 36 3 1 0 18 10 0 12 0 25 7 3 .221 .273 .252 .524 11 Actual Ari 150 41 3 2 1 27 16 0 29 2 18 4 3 .273 .391 .340 .731 22 Batista was projected to be the starter, but was traded to Toronto for reliever Dan Plesac. Why do you trade away a young power-hitting shortstop for a 37-year-old reliever, even if he is left-handed? Fox and Frias split the shortstop job after Batista was traded away, and did a just barely adequate job offensively. Frias did much better than expected, and if he really has learned how to draw walks, this may represent real improvement rather than a one-time blip. Neither of them are likely to ever come near Batista's home run numbers. If Travis Lee moves to the outfield, they might not get the chance, as Tony Womack could end up at shortstop once the shuffling is done. Womack won't perform any better than these two, other than in stealing bases. Matt Williams, 3b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 578 155 28 2 27 83 93 4 43 7 114 7 3 .268 .322 .464 .786 82 Prorated Ari 625 167 30 2 29 89 100 4 46 7 123 7 3 .267 .321 .461 .781 87 Actual Ari 627 190 37 2 35 98 142 2 41 9 93 2 0 .303 .344 .536 .880 112 The unusual thing about Matt Williams' numbers last year were the 600+ at-bats. Williams had only reached that level once before in his career, and it's not usually because of too many walks. When healthy, Matt Williams is a solid third-baseman with some pop in his bat; the problem has been keeping him healthy. Luis Gonzalez, lf, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 341 90 20 3 11 51 45 4 39 4 37 6 4 .264 .343 .437 .780 52 Prorated Ari 609 160 35 5 19 91 80 7 69 7 66 10 7 .263 .341 .430 .771 90 Actual Ari 614 206 45 4 26 112 111 7 66 6 63 9 5 .336 .403 .549 .952 136 Gonzalez turned out to be a steal for the Diamondbacks, coming over from the Tigers in trade for Karim Garcia. Garcia is a lot younger, but even at his projected level Gonzalez is a better hitter. As it was, Gonzalez was a major factor in the D'backs leading the league in runs scored. Gonzalez might repeat that home run level, as players often increase their home run numbers as they hit their 30s, but overall, don't expect a repeat of this performance. [TT: These were career highs in hits, doubles, homers, runs and RBI, and this was the first time since 1993 that Gonzalez' average has surpassed the .280 mark. Even at his normal level of production, he's a useful player because he provides very good defense in left field along with a decent amount of offense.] Steve Finley, cf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 561 151 34 8 20 97 77 3 43 1 82 13 3 .269 .322 .465 .787 85 Prorated Ari 605 163 36 8 21 104 83 3 46 1 88 14 3 .269 .322 .460 .781 90 Actual Ari 590 156 32 10 34 100 103 3 63 7 94 8 4 .264 .336 .525 .861 108 His home run numbers were up from his past few years, but this wasn't quite a career year for him, as he was a little better in 1996. This is about what you can expect from Finley -- a solid center fielder. [TT: Finley's defense is good but not as good as the Gold Glove voters seem to think. He makes his share of great catches, but there are several younger CFs who cover more ground. Even so, he's been a big surprise to me. Through age 30, his career high in homers was 11, and after hitting 30 and 28 in 1996-97, he fell back to 14 in 1998. I figured his career was winding down at that point, but he came back with a vengeance.] Tony Womack, rf/ss, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 570 163 21 6 3 74 41 1 34 1 86 50 8 .286 .326 .360 .685 74 Prorated Ari 636 181 23 6 3 82 45 1 37 1 95 55 8 .285 .323 .354 .677 81 Actual Ari 614 170 25 10 4 111 41 2 52 0 68 72 13 .277 .332 .370 .702 87 The stolen bases stand out, and the triples, but the rules still don't let you steal first base. Unless the Diamondbacks acquire a shortstop (maybe somebody else will give them a young power-hitting shortstop for Dan Plesac?), he's likely to move to shortstop next year, where his weak offense won't stand out as much. He'll still be all speed and not much else, but the baseline to compare him to won't be as high. [TT: I haven't been a Womack booster over the years because his only asset was stealing bases, and he didn't get on base nearly enough for a leadoff hitter. But now that his on-base percentage has risen to near the league average, I believe he's become a valuable leadoff hitter. True, he's no Rickey Henderson, or even Chuck Knoblauch for that matter, but there are teams who could use a leadoff man who puts himself in scoring position over a hundred times via extra-base hit or stolen base. Womack was one of only four players who did that in 1999, and he was the only leadoff hitter to do so.] Dave Dellucci, ph/rf/lf/cf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 154 41 8 3 3 19 19 1 14 1 36 2 2 .266 .329 .416 .745 21 Prorated Ari 111 29 5 2 2 13 13 0 10 0 26 1 1 .261 .322 .396 .719 14 Actual Ari 109 43 7 1 1 27 15 3 11 0 24 2 0 .394 .463 .505 .968 26 Considering he was playing with a bad wrist, these numbers are even more impressive. He won't match these numbers over a full season, of course, but he's young enough that he ought to get the opportunity. One key will be how well his rehab from season-ending wrist surgery goes. At the very least, he should be a nice insurance policy in case Finley or Gonzalez fall off, Travis Lee doesn't hit any better in the outfield, or Tony Womack moves to short. Bernard Gilkey, ph/rf/lf, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 170 43 9 0 5 26 24 2 22 1 36 4 2 .253 .340 .394 .734 24 Prorated Ari 206 52 10 0 6 31 29 2 26 1 43 4 2 .252 .338 .388 .726 28 Actual Ari 204 60 16 1 8 28 39 2 29 2 42 2 2 .294 .379 .500 .879 39 If you're the manager, you have to like getting bench production like this. Gilkey is a solid reserve player even if these numbers fall off some. Key PitchersHere's where the acquisitions paid off the most: the pitching staff went from one of the worst in the NL to one of the best. Cy Young winner Randy Johnson was the most visible improvement to the staff, posting one of his best seasons, but some of the other, lower-profile acquisitions helped solidify the staff. Randy Johnson, starter, age 35 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 3.00 32 32 16 10 0 234 190 22 77 312 .222 .636 Prorated Ari 3.00 36 36 18 11 0 263 214 25 87 351 .222 .636 Actual Ari 2.48 35 35 17 9 0 272 207 30 70 364 .208 .601 Wow. I'd say the Diamondbacks got their money's worth last year. Johnson alone was worth the price of admission. But those are career highs in innings pitched, games started, complete games, and strikeouts. Johnson threw an awful lot of pitches last year, and if that workload catches up with him, he could struggle next year. Andy Benes, starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 4.04 32 32 12 12 0 212 205 22 74 173 .255 .725 Prorated Ari 4.04 32 32 12 12 0 209 203 22 73 171 .255 .725 Actual Ari 4.81 33 32 13 12 0 198 216 34 82 141 .273 .803 Benes had a somewhat disappointing season, and will be somewhere else
as a free agent next season. Though 1998 was better than 1999 for Benes,
he never did show the form that [TT: You might recall that he wanted to pitch with his kid brother in St. Louis, but wound up signing with Arizona after MLB voided his 1998 contract with the Cardinals because they failed to get it done before a key deadline specified in the collective bargaining agreement. It's quite possible that St. Louis will again be his first choice this time around, if they're interested.] Omar Daal, starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 3.71 32 32 12 10 0 199 195 16 66 176 .259 .691 Prorated Ari 3.71 34 34 13 11 0 214 210 17 71 189 .259 .691 Actual Ari 3.65 32 32 16 9 0 215 188 21 79 148 .236 .686 A good performance from a fairly young veteran, but can he handle the workload? The suspicion was that the former reliever's post-season difficulties were due to a tired arm. Armando Reynoso, starter, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 4.85 27 27 8 10 0 160 176 15 58 92 .283 .783 Prorated Ari 4.85 28 28 8 10 0 166 183 16 60 96 .283 .783 Actual Ari 4.37 31 27 10 6 0 167 178 20 67 79 .276 .771 Another solid off-season pickup, Reynoso gave the Diamonds everything they could expect. His won-loss record was helped considerably by the 6+ runs per game the Diamondbacks scored for him. Todd Stottlemyre, starter, age 34Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 4.07 32 32 12 12 0 210 202 25 80 192 .253 .730 Prorated Ari 4.07 16 16 6 6 0 105 101 12 40 96 .253 .730 Actual Ari 4.09 17 17 6 3 0 101 106 12 40 74 .268 .767 Stottlemyre was hampered by injury, but when he did pitch, he performed as expected. The big question mark is his shoulder; with a bum shoulder at his age, I wouldn't expect him to project to 200 innings next season. Brian Anderson, starter/middle reliever, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 4.70 4 4 1 1 0 23 25 4 4 12 .278 .761 Prorated Ari 4.70 23 23 6 6 0 132 143 23 23 69 .278 .761 Actual Ari 4.57 31 19 8 2 1 130 144 18 28 75 .279 .755 Other than his won-loss record, there's not much here to suggest anything better than a number 4 or 5 starter, but he was as effective as Benes this season. With Benes likely to leave as a free agent, Anderson will get first shot at his slot in the rotation. Dan Plesac, middle reliever, age 37Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 3.40 70 0 3 2 8 50 47 6 16 56 .247 .711 Prorated Tor 3.40 35 0 1 1 4 25 23 3 8 28 .247 .711 Actual Tor 8.34 30 0 0 3 0 23 28 4 9 26 .308 .872 Prorated Ari 3.40 31 0 1 1 4 23 21 3 7 25 .247 .711 Actual Ari 3.32 34 0 2 1 1 22 22 3 8 27 .259 .746 Prorated Tot 3.40 66 0 3 2 8 47 44 6 15 53 .247 .711 Actual Tot 5.89 64 0 2 4 1 44 50 7 17 53 .284 .811 Plesac was acquired from Toronto for Tony Batista and John Frascatore, another reliever, bringing another left-handed arm to the bullpen while Greg Swindell was on the disabled list. After struggling in Toronto, Plesac righted himself in Arizona. It's still hard to see why you'd trade your regular shortstop for him. Greg Swindell, middle reliever, age 34Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 4.17 70 0 5 5 1 99 100 14 30 70 .262 .768 Prorated Ari 4.17 44 0 3 3 1 62 62 9 19 44 .262 .768 Actual Ari 2.51 63 0 4 0 1 65 54 8 21 51 .230 .679 Signed as a free agent in the off-season, Greg Swindell gave the Diamondbacks a strong performance out of the pen in middle relief. He got off to a slow start, then missed a few weeks in June with a rib-cage injury, but finished strong. He should continue to be an effective reliever for the Diamondbacks next season. Darren Holmes, middle reliever, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 4.15 11 0 1 1 0 17 20 2 7 13 .294 .826 Prorated Ari 4.15 31 0 3 3 0 49 57 6 20 37 .294 .826 Actual Ari 3.70 44 0 4 3 0 49 50 3 25 35 .262 .780 Better than expected performance, especially from someone who had back problems during the season. Considering he's had back problems two seasons in a row, I wouldn't expect the problem to go away, and if it doesn't, there's a question as to whether he can continue to be effective as he ages. Gregg Olson, closer, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 3.59 70 0 3 6 30 73 72 6 35 58 .262 .727 Prorated Ari 3.59 57 0 2 5 24 59 59 5 29 47 .262 .727 Actual Ari 3.71 61 0 9 4 14 61 54 9 25 45 .238 .708 Olson began the year as the Diamondback's closer, but wasn't effective in that role, only converting 14 of 23 save opportunities. Olson has filed for free agency, and will likely pitch elsewhere next year. Matt Mantei, closer, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Flo 2.61 70 0 5 2 40 72 51 3 47 90 .199 .632 Prorated Flo 2.61 35 0 2 1 20 36 25 1 23 45 .199 .632 Actual Flo 2.72 35 0 1 2 10 36 24 4 25 50 .186 .627 Prorated Ari 2.61 28 0 2 1 16 29 21 1 19 36 .199 .632 Actual Ari 2.79 30 0 0 1 22 29 20 1 19 49 .192 .641 Prorated Tot 2.61 63 0 5 2 36 65 46 3 42 81 .199 .632 Actual Tot 2.76 65 0 1 3 32 65 44 5 44 99 .189 .633 When Olson couldn't get the job done, Arizona acquired Matt Mantei from Florida, a young closer who converted 22 of 25 save opportunities for them. They gave up a hard-throwing young right-hander in Brad Penny to get him, but they weren't going to win the division without an effective closer. OutlookArizona significantly changed their roster last season, and most of the moves paid off big. If they want to get back to the post-season, they can't rest on the laurels. Their offensive improvement was keyed by career years from 30something players who aren't likely to repeat those performances, and their most important starting pitcher logged a lot of work last year. The farm system has some young talent starting to emerge, but probably not enough soon enough to fill the gaps when the veterans start slipping. If Durazo continues to hit, and Lee starts to show the form they were hoping for when they signed him, it's a good start, but there are still holes to fill. The Diamondbacks can't count on the Dodgers to continue self-destructing, and while the rest of the division doesn't remind anyone of the Braves or Yankees, the Diamondbacks did get some good luck this past year. If it had been Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent staying healthy instead of Matt Williams and Jay Bell, we might have seen the Diamondbacks chasing the Giants. Projections and text: Copyright © 1999. Diamond
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