Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
|
|
|
Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
|
|
1999 Post-Season Review -- Atlanta Braves Written by Sherri Nichols Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 772 840 Runs allowed 614 661 Run margin 158 179 Wins 96 103 Pythagorean Wins 99 100 Placement 1st 1st The Braves were once again the favorites to win the division, and that they did, with a few more victories than projected. Scoring was way up in the NL this year, with the average team racking up 65 more runs than the year before, and the Braves were in step with those increases on both sides of the ball. The offense dropped from 4th to 7th in the league in runs from 1998 to 1999, and while their pitching was again the best in the league, the rest of the division and the league did some catching up this year. The Braves did a good job of patching up the weak spots and covering for the injuries, but they need an infusion of young talent soon to maintain the dynasty. Fortunately for Braves fans, the farm system looks to be in good shape, and ownership has been willing to spend to get free agent help where the farm system didn't provide a solution. Key Position PlayersThe offense for Atlanta managed to stay around the league average even though Andres Galarraga spent the year undergoing cancer treatment, Javy Lopez was lost to injury, and they received little production from the middle infield. Of course, a breakthrough MVP performance from your third baseman will cover a lot of ills. The Braves also got some good stopgap performances in the outfield, but Brian Jordan and Gerald Williams aren't the long-term answers there. The outfield problems aren't as pressing as the middle infield problems, or probably even the first base problem, but to continue to hold off the Mets, the Braves are going to have to upgrade their offense. Javy Lopez, c, age 28 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 527 147 25 1 32 70 97 6 36 6 93 3 3 .279 .328 .512 .840 83 Prorated Atl 245 68 11 0 14 32 45 2 16 2 43 1 1 .278 .323 .494 .817 36 Actual Atl 246 78 18 1 11 34 45 3 20 2 41 0 3 .317 .375 .533 .908 47 Lopez was on his way to another outstanding season when he injured his knee. Assuming a successful rehab, he should continue to be a quality backstop for the Braves. Eddie Perez, c , age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 97 25 5 0 3 11 14 1 7 0 17 0 0 .258 .311 .402 .713 12 Prorated Atl 307 79 15 0 9 34 44 3 22 0 53 0 0 .257 .310 .394 .705 37 Actual Atl 309 77 17 0 7 30 30 6 17 4 40 0 1 .249 .299 .372 .671 33 The only thing unexpected about Perez' performance last year was the playing time. With Lopez lost to injury, Perez became the regular. Perez is a reasonable backup catcher, but there's quite a falloff from Lopez to Perez. If the Braves have any concerns about Lopez' health, they might want to upgrade here. Greg Myers, c , age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SD 386 96 22 1 8 41 48 0 31 3 66 0 1 .249 .302 .373 .675 41 Prorated SD 129 32 7 0 2 13 16 0 10 1 22 0 0 .248 .300 .349 .649 13 Actual SD 128 37 4 0 3 9 15 0 13 2 14 0 0 .289 .355 .391 .745 17 Prorated Atl 79 19 4 0 1 8 9 0 6 0 13 0 0 .241 .294 .329 .623 7 Actual Atl 72 16 2 0 2 10 9 0 13 2 16 0 0 .222 .337 .333 .671 9 Prorated Tot 208 51 11 0 4 22 25 0 16 1 35 0 0 .245 .298 .356 .654 21 Actual Tot 200 53 6 0 5 19 24 0 26 4 30 0 0 .265 .348 .370 .718 26 Myers was acquired to back up Perez when Lopez went out. He was having a pretty good season as a backup in San Diego, but didn't fare as well in limited time in Atlanta. Myers is a free agent, and probably not high on the Braves' priority list. Andres Galarraga, 1b, age 38AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 67 18 3 0 4 11 13 2 6 1 17 1 1 .269 .347 .493 .839 11 Apparently, the Braves expect Galarraga to be back at first next year. Galarraga turns 39 next June, and didn't play at all this past season because he was being treated for lymphoma. It's a great feel-good story if the Big Cat makes it back and hits like he did in 1998, but not something I'd bet the bank on. If Galarraga were to match this projected level of performance for a whole season next year, he'd be a below average offensive first baseman. At Galarraga's age, he's already on the steep part of the downward curve, and after a year without facing real pitching, I'd be surprised to see him hit even that well. Brian Hunter, 1b, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 78 18 5 0 3 9 11 1 4 0 13 1 1 .231 .274 .410 .684 8 Prorated Atl 204 47 13 0 7 23 28 2 10 0 34 2 2 .230 .271 .397 .668 20 Actual Atl 181 45 12 1 6 28 30 4 31 1 40 0 1 .249 .367 .425 .792 29 Hunter is a free agent, though he might end up back in Atlanta. He's not the answer at first base, even as half a platoon, but he's a reasonable bench player. Ryan Klesko, 1b/lf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 559 148 31 4 26 85 94 4 68 7 122 5 4 .265 .346 .474 .821 92 Prorated Atl 410 108 22 2 19 62 68 2 49 5 89 3 2 .263 .343 .466 .809 66 Actual Atl 404 120 28 2 21 55 80 2 53 8 69 5 2 .297 .376 .532 .908 84 The above numbers look pretty good at first relative to the projections, but then you look at the projected number of plate appearances and the actual number. Klesko didn't miss that much time due to injury; the low number of plate appearances are because he was platooned. Klesko didn't hit lefties last year, and he hasn't hit lefties in the last five years. At his age, he's unlikely to suddenly start. So, Klesko is at best a partial solution at first base or left field, which may be why there are rumors the Braves are shopping him. That would seem to be betting a lot on Galarraga, and I would expect Klesko plus a platoon partner to out-hit Galarraga. Randall Simon, 1b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 74 17 4 0 1 7 11 0 1 0 9 0 0 .230 .240 .324 .564 5 Prorated Atl 233 53 12 0 3 22 34 0 3 0 28 0 0 .227 .237 .318 .555 15 Actual Atl 218 69 16 0 5 26 25 1 17 6 25 2 2 .317 .367 .459 .826 33 On the other hand, maybe the Braves are betting on Simon, not Galarraga. On the third hand, Simon hasn't shown he can hit lefties, either, and even against mostly righties, the above numbers are below the league average for first basemen. On the fourth hand, Simon's still young enough to show more improvement, and one positive sign is that he drew a lot more walks than projected. Even so, I just don't see Simon turning out to be the answer at first base. Bret Boone, 2b, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 546 133 28 1 17 61 76 4 42 3 104 5 4 .244 .300 .392 .692 61 Prorated Atl 606 147 31 1 18 67 84 4 46 3 115 5 4 .243 .298 .386 .684 67 Actual Atl 608 153 38 1 20 102 63 5 47 0 112 14 9 .252 .310 .416 .726 77 Boone has decided not to exercise his option to demand a trade, but is potential trade bait anyway, according to the rumors, possibly in exchange for Barry Larkin. Despite the 20 homers and 38 doubles, Boone was below league average in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage for second basemen. The problem with trading him to solve the shortstop problem is who do you put at second base? The best middle infield prospects in the farm system are probably still at least a year away. Keith Lockhart, ph/2b, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 69 16 4 0 1 9 8 0 5 0 7 0 1 .232 .280 .333 .613 6 Prorated Atl 169 39 9 0 2 22 19 0 12 0 17 0 2 .231 .279 .320 .598 15 Actual Atl 161 42 3 1 1 20 21 1 19 0 21 3 1 .261 .337 .311 .648 19 Nothing special as a pinch-hitter, and getting pretty old to be the backup utility infielder, but is signed through next season. Ozzie Guillen, ss, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 69 17 3 1 0 8 6 0 4 0 5 1 1 .246 .284 .319 .603 6 Prorated Atl 234 57 10 3 0 27 20 0 13 0 17 3 3 .244 .280 .312 .592 20 Actual Atl 232 56 16 0 1 21 20 0 15 2 17 4 2 .241 .284 .323 .607 21 Guillen performed very close to expectations, except that the Braves played him a lot more than they probably would have liked to. Guillen was never very good with the bat, and he doesn't have the same reputation with the glove he once had. Walt Weiss , ss, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 486 121 23 1 2 70 36 4 82 2 76 8 2 .249 .359 .313 .672 62 Prorated Atl 269 67 12 0 1 38 19 2 45 1 42 4 1 .249 .358 .305 .663 34 Actual Atl 279 63 13 4 2 38 29 3 35 1 48 7 3 .226 .315 .323 .637 32 Weiss played less than expected, and worse than expected when he did play. No wonder the Braves expressed more interest in Alex Rodriguez than Ken Griffey, Jr. Shortstop is one of the more pressing needs for this team, but also one where they may have some potential help in the farm system in a couple of years, with top prospect Rafael Furcal ticketed for AA ball this spring. Jose Hernandez, ss, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChN 520 129 23 7 23 83 76 1 42 4 146 5 6 .248 .304 .452 .756 67 Prorated ChN 354 87 15 4 15 56 51 0 28 2 99 3 4 .246 .299 .438 .737 44 Actual ChN 342 93 12 2 15 57 43 5 40 3 101 7 2 .272 .357 .450 .807 57 Prorated Atl 164 40 7 2 7 26 24 0 13 1 46 1 1 .244 .299 .439 .738 20 Actual Atl 166 42 8 0 4 22 19 0 12 3 44 4 1 .253 .302 .373 .675 18 Prorated Tot 519 128 22 6 22 82 75 0 41 3 145 4 5 .247 .301 .439 .740 65 Actual Tot 508 135 20 2 19 79 62 5 52 6 145 11 3 .266 .339 .425 .764 75 Hernandez had a fine half-season in Chicago, but didn't sustain that pace in Atlanta. A free agent, he could wind up back in Atlanta if the Braves don't find another solution to their shortstop woes. He's a better answer than Weiss or Guillen. Mark DeRosa, ss, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 68 14 3 0 1 7 5 1 5 0 8 1 1 .206 .270 .294 .564 5 Prorated Atl 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .143 .143 .143 .286 0 Actual Atl 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 DeRosa spent most of the season in AAA, where he struggled with the jump from AA. His minor league performance doesn't suggest that he's the answer at short next season. Chipper Jones, 3b, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 555 165 31 2 26 103 99 0 81 3 83 15 4 .297 .383 .501 .884 109 Prorated Atl 605 179 33 2 28 112 107 0 88 3 90 16 4 .296 .382 .496 .878 117 Actual Atl 567 181 41 1 45 116 110 2 126 18 94 25 3 .319 .441 .633 1.074 165 After hitting 12 homers in the 4 previous seasons against lefties, the switch-hitting Jones hit 15 last season alone. Jones has never had a large platoon differential, except that he never hit for power against lefties. Until this year. Fifteen homers in 142 at-bats against lefties definitely qualifies as hitting with power against lefties. The landslide MVP winner is the reason the Braves will probably be looking to reload rather than rebuild over the next few years. Gerald Williams, lf, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 103 26 6 1 2 14 10 1 4 0 17 4 2 .252 .284 .388 .673 11 Prorated Atl 437 110 25 4 8 59 42 4 16 0 72 16 8 .252 .282 .382 .664 45 Actual Atl 422 116 24 1 17 76 68 6 33 1 67 19 11 .275 .335 .457 .792 63 Williams projected to be a bench player, but ended up playing a lot of left field as part of the domino effect of Galarraga not playing first. He performed better than expected, but not as well as you would like for your regular left fielder. The Braves are better off with Williams as a role player off the bench. The best outfield prospect in the organization, George Lombard, might be ready to take Williams' job next year. Otis Nixon, lf/ph, age 40AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 594 166 12 7 0 86 30 1 64 0 78 54 12 .279 .349 .323 .672 74 Prorated Atl 156 43 3 1 0 22 7 0 16 0 20 14 3 .276 .343 .308 .651 18 Actual Atl 151 31 2 1 0 31 8 0 23 1 15 26 7 .205 .309 .232 .540 14 A free agent, this is probably the end of the line for Nixon. It happened a lot later than I ever would have guessed - after 17 seasons. Andruw Jones, cf, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 587 156 32 7 31 92 96 4 49 6 134 27 7 .266 .325 .503 .827 95 Prorated Atl 616 163 33 7 32 96 100 4 51 6 140 28 7 .265 .323 .497 .820 99 Actual Atl 592 163 35 5 26 97 84 9 76 11 103 24 12 .275 .365 .483 .848 106 The homers weren't quite as high as projected, but it's encouraging to see Andruw Jones show more patience at the plate. These are very nice numbers for anyone, but for a 22 year old, they're outstanding. He's not quite as good as Griffey was at that age, but there aren't many other players to compare him to, because most 22-year-olds are still playing minor league ball, not finishing their third full major league season. The Braves reportedly balked at giving up Jones or Kevin Millwood as part of a Griffey deal. It's an interesting call: will the next five years of Andruw Jones be better than the next five years of Ken Griffey, Jr.? Griffey had a breakout year at age 23, and while Jones shows the potential to go up another level, it's still potential at this point. [TT: Any comparison of Griffey and Jones must take defense into account, and Jones has not only surpassed Griffey in the past two years, he's become the best defensive CF in baseball. If I'm Seattle, I'm willing to trade Griffey for Jones and a good starting pitcher. In fact, I might even be willing to make the deal without the pitcher, since I'd be able to use the money I'd save on Griffey's huge salary to help the club in other areas.] Brian Jordan, rf, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 600 178 35 3 21 97 93 11 39 2 77 19 5 .297 .348 .470 .818 97 Prorated Atl 590 175 34 2 20 95 91 10 38 1 75 18 4 .297 .347 .463 .810 94 Actual Atl 576 163 28 4 23 100 115 9 51 2 81 13 8 .283 .346 .465 .811 94 Jordan's numbers were right in line with expectations, and while right field might not be the most pressing problem for the Braves, here's another place where they got below-league-average offensive production. George Lombard, ph/lf/rf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 65 15 3 0 2 10 7 1 7 1 21 4 1 .231 .311 .369 .680 8 Prorated Atl 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 Actual Atl 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 .333 .429 .333 .762 1 Atlanta's top outfield prospect, Lombard spent most of the season at AAA, where he struggled at the plate while fighting injuries. A healthy Lombard bounced back with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, where he led in homers and RBIs and was named league MVP. The Braves hope that his fall performance is indicative of things to come, and that he will contend for an outfield spot as soon as next spring. Key PitchersThe Atlanta pitching staff was still the class of the National League, but not by the margin they used to enjoy. The Big Three all showed signs of decline this year, and the Atlanta brain trust has some hard decisions ahead: how and when do you move out three of the more dominant pitchers of the decade? Kevin Millwood's emergence this year was a welcome sight, and the Big Three aren't exactly ready for the scrap heap yet, so the challenge is how to transition to a younger staff while remaining in contention. Given the needs on the offensive side of the ledger, it seems a likely proposition that one of them will be traded sooner rather than later. Greg Maddux, starter, age 33 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 2.47 32 32 15 7 0 215 185 11 26 168 .234 .582 Prorated Atl 2.47 36 36 17 8 0 243 209 12 29 190 .234 .582 Actual Atl 3.57 33 33 19 9 0 219 258 16 37 136 .294 .726 Maddux posted his highest ERA since 1987, and his first 3+ ERA since 1991, a remarkable string in this era of high-octane offense. The 258 hits he gave up are the most of his career, and the 136 strikeouts the fewest since 1989. Maddux has been a great pitcher in the 90s, but he's my candidate for trade bait. Maddux has been throwing a lot of innings for a lot of years, all of them in hitter-friendly parks. By age 22, he was pitching 249 innings, and this year's 219 innings were the fewest since then. Of the Big Three, he's the one that looks most likely to suffer a steep decline. But he also has the biggest contract, making him tough to trade. Plus, like all of the Big Three, he's a 5 and 10 man (10 years in the majors, 5 with his current team) which means he can veto any trade he doesn't want. Tom Glavine, starter, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 3.17 32 32 15 9 0 218 198 16 70 149 .244 .648 Prorated Atl 3.17 37 37 17 10 0 249 226 18 80 170 .244 .648 Actual Atl 4.12 35 35 14 11 0 234 259 18 83 138 .287 .736 Glavine is my second candidate for trade. Like Maddux, he had his worst season since the early 90s, and except for the difference in walk totals, it was pretty similar to Maddux's. One big difference is that Maddux got over a run per game more support from his offense, which may account for the difference in victories. Glavine is the same age as Maddux, but wasn't worked as hard at a young age. Glavine was 24 before he pitched more than 200 innings in a season, and he's never pitched 250 innings in a season, while Maddux has topped that four times. Another reason to hang on to Glavine rather than Maddux is that Glavine is a lefty. The only other lefty starters are the veteran Terry Mulholland, who's more suited to spot starting and middle relief at this point, Bruce Chen, who isn't yet a reliable pitcher, and the very young Odaliz Perez, who struggled in his first major league rotation and will be coming off elbow surgery. Kevin Millwood, starter, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 3.54 32 32 12 10 0 198 188 16 63 177 .250 .677 Prorated Atl 3.54 35 35 13 11 0 216 205 17 69 193 .250 .677 Actual Atl 2.68 33 33 18 7 0 228 168 24 59 205 .202 .594 Wow. There are lots of things to like about Millwood's season, that 2.68 ERA being prime among them. Another is that he only allowed about a base runner per inning, best in the league. And that nice strikeout to walk ratio, almost 3 to 1. And, perhaps best of all, his age. Big, young, hard-throwing pitchers with sub-3.00 ERAs are the kind of pitchers you love to have on your staff. He may not perform this well next season, but he's still on the up side of the curve, and looks like at least the number 2 starter on the staff for next year. John Smoltz, starter, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 3.11 32 32 14 8 0 205 185 16 50 210 .241 .645 Prorated Atl 3.11 29 29 13 7 0 184 166 14 45 188 .241 .645 Actual Atl 3.19 29 29 11 8 0 186 168 14 40 156 .245 .662 Here's the Big Three pitcher I'd most want to keep. Despite some elbow problems this year, his performance was very much in line with expectations. The elbow is the biggest concern, because he's had trouble with it since off-season surgery two years ago. Yet it doesn't seem to be hurting his performance, and it can take two years to completely recover from elbow surgery. Another concern is that like Maddux, Smoltz pitched a lot of innings at a young age. However he faced fewer batters in those innings than did Maddux, is physically larger than Maddux, and he hasn't consistently thrown 200+ innings year in and year out. Odaliz Perez, starter, age 21Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 4.81 27 27 7 9 0 161 179 25 64 154 .285 .821 Prorated Atl 4.81 16 16 4 5 0 97 108 15 39 93 .285 .821 Actual Atl 6.00 18 17 4 6 0 93 100 12 53 82 .275 .804 The young lefty struggled in his rookie season, with the ugliest number the 6.00 ERA he posted. The ERA seems a bit out of line with his other numbers, though, and is a bit inflated because of his last two starts, when he only managed 6 innings and posted a 16.50 ERA. He also showed a substantial home/road split, posting a 4.02 ERA in ten starts at home, and a 10.09 ERA in 7 starts on the road. His season was cut short by a torn elbow ligament, and he'll have the Tommy John surgery this off-season. Terry Mulholland, starter/reliever, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 4.04 32 32 10 10 0 198 202 21 55 108 .266 .730 Prorated ChN 4.04 19 19 6 6 0 116 118 12 32 63 .266 .730 Actual ChN 5.15 26 16 6 6 0 110 137 16 32 44 .309 .842 Prorated Atl 4.04 10 10 3 3 0 60 61 6 17 33 .266 .730 Actual Atl 2.98 16 8 4 2 1 60 64 5 13 39 .274 .691 Prorated Tot 4.04 28 28 9 9 0 175 179 19 49 96 .266 .730 Actual Tot 4.39 42 24 10 8 1 170 201 21 45 83 .297 .790 In the crafty lefty stage of his career, Mulholland gave the Braves a solid role performance down the stretch as a spot starter and reliever. He'll probably fill that role for someone again next year, maybe even for the Braves. Bruce Chen, starter/reliever, age 22Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 4.15 4 4 1 1 0 22 22 3 9 25 .262 .777 Prorated Atl 4.15 9 9 2 2 0 48 49 7 20 56 .262 .777 Actual Atl 5.47 16 7 2 2 0 51 38 11 27 45 .208 .724 Another young rotation candidate, Chen also struggled some, especially with his control. Thirty-eight hits in 51 innings is pretty good, but almost 5 walks per 9 innings isn't going to win you many games. He has potential as a starter if he finds control, as a reliever if he doesn't. Mike Remlinger, middle reliever, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 4.58 27 4 3 4 0 55 54 7 27 54 .258 .762 Prorated Atl 4.58 39 6 4 6 0 79 77 10 39 77 .258 .762 Actual Atl 2.37 73 0 10 1 1 84 66 9 35 81 .215 .639 Remlinger stepped into the setup role this season for the Braves, and did a good job there. Remlinger has been a bottom of the rotation kind of starter most of his career; maybe he's better suited to shorter relief. With numbers like these, he's a valuable left-handed reliever. Kevin McGlinchy, middle reliever, age 22Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Atl 2.82 64 0 7 3 0 70 66 6 30 67 .255 .708 McGlinchy made the leap from AA to the bigs look pretty easy last year. Going into last season, McGlinchy, who had started his entire minor league career, had a grand total of 33 innings pitched above A ball. Somebody must have forgotten to tell him it's supposed to be harder in the majors than in AA, because McGlinchy pitched better in Atlanta than he had in the those 33 innings in Greenville last season. Rudy Seanez, middle reliever, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 3.35 70 0 6 4 3 97 86 10 51 123 .239 .708 Prorated Atl 3.35 38 0 3 2 2 52 46 5 27 66 .239 .708 Actual Atl 3.35 56 0 6 1 3 54 47 3 21 41 .234 .615 Seanez might have matched his projections for games and innings pitched as well had he not suffered a stress fracture in his elbow in August. He's a free agent, but one the Braves will probably want to hang onto if he's healthy. Russ Springer, middle reliever, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 4.05 30 0 2 2 0 40 41 4 21 45 .265 .746 Prorated Atl 4.05 32 0 2 2 0 43 44 4 23 49 .265 .746 Actual Atl 3.42 49 0 2 1 1 47 31 5 22 49 .185 .617 Another reliever, another good year. The Braves, despite beginning the season with questions about their bullpen, managed to put together a pretty good relief corps this year. Will it happen again? Not with Springer; he's off to Arizona as a free agent. John Rocker, closer, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 3.58 70 0 4 3 11 73 63 9 41 73 .235 .738 Prorated Atl 3.58 67 0 4 3 11 70 60 9 39 70 .235 .738 Actual Atl 2.49 74 0 4 5 38 72 47 5 37 104 .180 .552 When Ligtenberg went down with elbow problems, Rocker took over the closer job and had a fine season, though with a few more blown saves than Ligtenberg had in 1998. Now, the closer job belongs to Rocker, and when Ligtenberg come back from his injury, the Braves will slot him into the setup role or maybe use one of them as trade bait. Rocker has the age advantage, so the Braves would probably prefer to keep him. OutlookThe Braves once again went to the World Series, and once again didn't win. It's a shame that the dominant team of the '90s is going to be remembered for what they didn't win, rather than what they did. Atlanta has done a masterful job of replacing the parts and keeping the dynasty going, and they're at a point where some more parts needed to be plugged in. Will they be able to do it on the fly, and keep winning, or will it be overhaul time? We should get some idea next season. If the Braves try to sneak one more season out of this collection of players, rather than starting the process of moving in new talent, they're probably headed for overhaul within a couple of years. Their sound defeat in the World Series may be a blessing in disguise, as it exposed the Braves' weaknesses -- when the pitching couldn't shut the Yankees down, the offense couldn't step up and help out. Let's see what the Braves do about it; I think it's going to be interesting to watch. [TT: I had the good fortune to be in Yankee Stadium for the game six of the 1996 World Series, and I remember being struck by how many young players the Braves were starting in that game. The team was already five years into their run of division titles, and yet they went into a no-tomorrow game with Andruw Jones (19), Chipper Jones (24), Jermaine Dye (22), and Javy Lopez (25) in the lineup, with Ryan Klesko (25) coming off the bench to pinch hit. If not for the added challenge of having to survive three playoff series, I would have bet my car that this team would win a World Series or two before the end of the century. For nine years, they've been able to stay at the top while mixing in good young players, so I'm not betting against their ability to retool on the fly one more time.] Projections and text: Copyright © 1999. Diamond Mind,
Inc. All rights reserved. |
 |
