Baseball Articles | 1999 Post-Season Reviews

1999 Post-Season Review -- Baltimore Orioles

Written by Tom Ruane
Edited by Tom Tippett
December 2, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Baltimore Orioles did in the 1999 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                 Projected  Actual
Runs for            803      851
Runs allowed        815      815
Run Margin          -12       36
Wins                 81       78
Pythagorean wins     80       84
Placement           3rd      4th

After their team suffered through a disappointing 1998 campaign, winning only 79 games, Peter Angelos and company did the free agent shuffle prior to last year. Rafael Palmeiro, Eric Davis, Alan Mills and Roberto Alomar left and were replaced by a host of veterans coming in search of greener pastures. Albert Belle, Will Clark and Delino DeShields arrived to replace the position players. Several others, including Mike Timlin, Heathcliff Slocumb, Ricky Bones and Mike Fetters, arrived to shore up the bullpen after the departure of Mills and Armando Benitez, who was sent to the Mets for catcher Charles Johnson in the only actual trade of the off-season.

The spending spree was about as successful as the previous one as the O's finished with another losing record. To be fair to the people putting this team together, they were actually a better group than their record would indicate. They outscored their opponents by 36 runs, a mark that will usually produce around 84 wins. That's probably small consolation to fans of the team, however, and one can only wonder what's in store for them next year.

Key Position Players

The Orioles' hitters scored more runs than anticipated in 1999. Cal Ripken, Will Clark (despite their injuries), Harold Baines, Mike Bordick, Jeff Conine, Brady Anderson and B. J. Surhoff all did better and no one did significantly worse than projected. They might have seemed like a group of under-achievers to their fans and to the writers following the team, but they actually did about as well as anyone had a right to expect.

Charles Johnson, c, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 490 117 23  0 24  53  69  2  55  4 129  0  1  .239  .317  .433  .750  65
Prorated   Bal 437 104 20  0 21  47  61  1  49  3 115  0  0  .238  .316  .428  .743  57
Actual     Bal 426 107 19  1 16  58  54  4  55  2 107  0  0  .251  .340  .413  .753  60

Johnson came over in the Armando Benitez deal and was seen as a welcome change of pace from Chris Hoiles and Lenny Webster, two better hitting catchers with poor defensive reputations and weak throwing arms. He did have a chilling effect on enemy base runners, as the opponents stolen bases fell from 182 in 1998 to 93 last year.

His batting averages in his five full major league seasons have been .251, .218, .250, .218 and .251. If you have an office pool on what his average will be next year (and who doesn't?), you might want to take .218.

Will Clark, 1b, age 35

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 561 153 35  0 18  81  81  4  71  8  94  0  0  .273  .355  .431  .786  88
Prorated   Bal 256  69 16  0  8  37  37  1  32  3  42  0  0  .270  .349  .426  .775  39
Actual     Bal 251  76 15  0 10  40  29  2  38  2  42  2  2  .303  .395  .482  .877  49

Baltimore and Texas swapped free agent first basemen prior to last season. After trips to the DL in both 1996 and 1997, Clark was coming off an injury-free year in Texas. Palmeiro, on the other hand, had never been on the disabled list and has now missed only 44 games since becoming a regular with the Cubs in 1988 -- fewer games than both Clark and Ripken missed in 1999 alone.

Clark's problems started in April when he missed five weeks with a fractured thumb, and ended when bone chips in his elbow brought his campaign to a halt in mid-August. Despite knocking in only 29 runs last year (which compared unfavorably to Palmeiro's 148 RBIs down in Texas), he actually hit pretty well while he was healthy.

Jeff Conine, 1b/dh, age 33

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 219  55 12  0  8  25  32  1  22  1  47  1  0  .251  .318  .416  .734  29
Prorated   Bal 433 108 23  0 15  49  63  1  43  1  93  1  0  .249  .315  .406  .722  55
Actual     Bal 444 129 31  1 13  54  75  3  30  0  40  0  3  .291  .335  .453  .787  65

Injuries to Clark gave Conine an opportunity to play and he responded with his best season since he was an All-Star with the Marlins in the mid-1990s. A slow start and finish (he hit .140 in April and .224 in September with no home runs in either month) cost him an even more impressive season.

Delino DeShields, 2b, age 30

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 482 130 19  9  7  76  46  1  51  3  73 35 11  .270  .338  .390  .728  68
Prorated   Bal 332  89 13  6  4  52  31  0  35  2  50 24  7  .268  .336  .380  .716  45
Actual     Bal 330  87 11  2  6  46  34  1  37  0  52 11  8  .264  .339  .364  .702  42

When Roberto Alomar signed with Cleveland, it looked for a moment as if the Orioles might fill the vacancy with a young player from their farm system. Cooler heads eventually prevailed, however, and a "name" player (DeShields) was signed to fill the void. Delino suffered through a variety of ailments in 1999, including a fractured thumb, strained hamstring, and lower abdominal pain. His injuries cut down on his speed and by the end of the season the front office was auditioning his successor for the job, Jerry Hairston.

Jerry Hairston, 2b, age 23

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal  69  19  3  1  1  11   9  1   4  0   7  1  1  .275  .324  .391  .716   9
Prorated   Bal 177  48  7  2  2  28  23  2  10  0  18  2  2  .271  .317  .367  .685  20
Actual     Bal 175  47 12  1  4  26  17  3  11  0  24  9  4  .269  .323  .417  .740  24

The top prospect in the Orioles system, Hairston was judged too inexperienced (only half a season at double AA) to succeed Alomar in 1999. It would be an understatement to say that the Angelos family prefers veterans to rookies. In 1998, the Orioles position players were the oldest in major league history with an average age (weighted by plate appearances) of 33.9. The second oldest? Last year's Orioles, with an age of 33.2. A fine season in AAA and injuries to DeSheilds got Hairston an extended trial in the bigs and he is considered to be the front-runner for the job in 2000.

Mike Bordick, ss, age 33

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 508 120 24  1  8  55  48  6  42  0  68  3  4  .236  .299  .335  .634  50
Prorated   Bal 626 148 29  1  9  67  59  7  51  0  83  3  4  .236  .299  .329  .628  61
Actual     Bal 631 175 35  7 10  93  77  5  54  1 102 14  4  .277  .334  .403  .737  83

Set career highs in just about every category in 1999. He's played more than 150 games each year since coming to Baltimore, but then again Oriole fans are accustomed to having durable shortstops.

Cal Ripken, 3b, age 38

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 516 135 25  0 13  60  60  4  47  1  60  0  1  .262  .326  .386  .711  64
Prorated   Bal 319  83 15  0  8  37  37  2  29  0  37  0  0  .260  .324  .382  .706  39
Actual     Bal 332 113 27  0 18  51  57  3  13  3  31  0  1  .340  .368  .584  .952  65

I guess it's safe to say that Cal never quite had a season like the one last year. He entered unfamiliar territory when he went on the DL with back problems in April, missed time in July with a deep bone bruise, lost all of August with more back problems, before finally having his season end ten days (and nine hits) too soon with even more back miseries. While he was healthy, however, Ripken put up some of his best numbers, finishing with both his highest batting average and slugging percentage of his long career. As a matter of fact, he collected more extra base hits in the 86 games he played in 1999 than he did while playing almost every game the year before.

Ryan Minor, 3b, age 25

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal  72  14  2  0  1   8   8  1   2  0  19  0  0  .194  .227  .264  .491   4
Prorated   Bal 127  24  3  0  1  14  14  1   3  0  33  0  0  .189  .214  .236  .450   6
Actual     Bal 124  24  7  0  3  13  10  0   8  0  43  1  0  .194  .241  .323  .563  10

Minor saw more action in the major leagues than expected and was not quite ready for the experience. While he has not made a lot of contact in the minor or major leagues (striking out a combined 308 times in two seasons and walking only 79 times), he did show some power at AAA in 1999 with 21 home runs in 383 at-bats. Even with that kind of power, he'll have to improve both his plate discipline and batting average to remain in the majors.

Jeff Reboulet, 3b/2b/ss, age 35

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 164  37  7  0  1  19  14  2  20  0  34  1  1  .226  .316  .287  .602  16
Prorated   Bal 162  36  6  0  0  18  13  1  19  0  33  0  0  .222  .308  .259  .567  14
Actual     Bal 154  25  4  0  0  25   4  2  33  0  29  1  0  .162  .317  .188  .506  12

Our projections for Reboulet were pretty pessimistic, but even we figured he'd do better than a .188 slugging percentage. About all you can say nice about his season was that he sure walked a lot. You have to wonder what pitchers were thinking about when they got three balls on him. After all, he batted .162 with absolutely no power--you'd think they would've thrown the ball down the middle of the plate rather than risk walking the guy.

Albert Belle, rf, age 32

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 550 162 36  1 40  91 119  3  64  8  82  5  3  .295  .365  .582  .947 114
Prorated   Bal 633 186 41  1 46 104 137  3  73  9  94  5  3  .294  .364  .580  .944 131
Actual     Bal 610 181 36  1 37 108 117  7 101 15  82 17  3  .297  .400  .541  .941 135

Albert Belle did just about what everyone should have expected -- both good and bad -- in his first season in Baltimore. He's an extremely durable and controversial player (suspended five times in his career, he's yet to visit the disabled list) who is one of the top power hitters of his generation. By the time it was over, he had made lewd gestures to the home fans, tried to get his team-mates to boycott an exhibition game against the O's top farm club, posted a sign near his locker asking the writers following the team to show him some love, and all in all had a typical Albert Belle season. If he can play productively for another three or four years, he should finish his career with Hall of Fame numbers. Assuming he isn't kept out of the Hall by a scandal or his unpopularity with fans and writers, it should be a very interesting induction ceremony.

Despite some wild post-signing estimates about what he might do in Baltimore, it wasn't reasonable to expect Belle to top his 1998 mark of 49 home runs. Camden Yard is not a great home run park (last year it was actually below average for the long-ball) and he balanced out a slight decline in his power numbers by setting a career high in walks. One statistical oddity about Belle's season: long one of the game's most prolific doubles hitter (averaging over 45 a year from 1995 to 1998), he had only 11 in his first 109 games. Starting on August 8th, however, Belle would hit 25 doubles in his last 52 games, including two games in which he hit four apiece.

Rich Amaral, rf/dh/cf/lf, age 37

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 124  34  4  0  0  23   8  2  11  0  21  9  3  .274  .341  .306  .647  14
Prorated   Bal 138  37  4  0  0  25   8  2  12  0  23 10  3  .268  .333  .297  .630  15
Actual     Bal 137  38  8  1  0  21  11  1  15  0  20  9  6  .277  .348  .350  .699  18

1999 was Rich Amaral's ninth major league season -- not bad for a guy who had played only 14 major league games before his 30th birthday. Originally a second baseman and shortstop, he has been primarily an outfielder for the last five years, but his versatility is the main reason he's still in the majors.

Brady Anderson, cf, age 35

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 607 156 37  5 25 103  74 20  89  4 104 21  9  .257  .370  .458  .828 111
Prorated   Bal 581 149 35  4 23  98  70 19  85  3  99 20  8  .256  .369  .449  .819 104
Actual     Bal 564 159 28  5 24 109  81 24  96  7 105 36  7  .282  .404  .477  .881 123

Anderson bounced back nicely from a disappointing season in 1998, when he finished with a .236 batting average. He posted both his second highest home run and stolen base totals of his career. His career highs in both categories are 50 or higher, the only player in major league history who can make that claim. He has now led the league in getting hit by a pitch three of the last four seasons. He's lost quite a bit defensively in centerfield and will probably move to a less demanding position in the next year or two.

B.J. Surhoff, lf, age 34

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 553 151 31  3 20  76  85  3  48 10  73  4  5  .273  .330  .448  .779  81
Prorated   Bal 654 178 36  3 23  89 100  3  56 11  86  4  5  .272  .328  .442  .770  94
Actual     Bal 673 207 38  1 28 104 107  2  43  1  78  5  1  .308  .347  .492  .839 114

Surhoff had his finest season in 1999, topping 200 hits, 100 runs and 100 RBIs for the first time. He was over 35 by the time he reached the 200 hit mark, making him the fourth oldest player to reach that plateau for the first time. Here are the five oldest, along with their ages as of July 1st in the year the topped the 200 hit mark:

     Name             Age  Year    H  Team(s)
     Jake Daubert    38.2  1922  205  BRO N
     Randy Velarde   36.6  1999  200  ANA A and OAK A
     Eddie Brown     35.0  1926  201  BOS N
     B.J. Surhoff    34.9  1999  207  BAL A
     Dante Bichette  34.6  1998  219  COL N

I'm not sure what to make of the fact that three of the five players on this list did it in the last two years.

Harold Baines, dh, age 40

           Tm   AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 404 120 21  0 15  54  69  1  47  7  55  0  0  .297  .369  .460  .830  66
Prorated   Bal 346 102 18  0 12  46  59  0  40  6  47  0  0  .295  .366  .451  .817  55
Actual     Bal 345 111 16  1 24  57  81  0  43  3  38  1  2  .322  .395  .583  .977  75

Prorated   Cle  85  25  4  0  3  11  14  0   9  1  11  0  0  .294  .362  .447  .809  13
Actual     Cle  85  23  2  0  1   5  22  0  11  0  10  0  0  .271  .354  .329  .684  10

Prorated   Tot 431 128 22  0 16  57  73  1  50  7  58  0  0  .297  .369  .459  .828  70
Actual     Tot 430 134 18  1 25  62 103  0  54  3  48  1  2  .312  .387  .533  .919  85

Another pleasant surprise for the Orioles, at least until they sent him to the Indians at the end of August for prospects. He now is only 217 hits away from 3000. That mark still looks far away, but he's actually improved his hitting since turning 35. The last player that managed to do something like that was, well, Paul Molitor, perhaps not coincidentally another DH. If Baines does manage to hang on for another two years and get to 3000 hits, he may very well become the first player in that club NOT to be admitted to the Hall of Fame.

Key Pitchers

As a whole, the Baltimore staff performed exactly as expected in 1999. A handful of starting pitchers (Mike Mussina, Sidney Ponson and Jason Johnson) did somewhat better than our projections, compensating for some disappointments in the bullpen. The staff was terrible in the early going, as a 6.49 ERA in April was largely responsible for the team's 6-16 start.

Mike Mussina, starter, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  3.72  32 32  13 10  0  218 209 27  52 192  .253  .709
Prorated   Bal  3.72  30 30  12  9  0  205 196 25  49 180  .253  .709
Actual     Bal  3.50  31 31  18  7  0  203 207 16  52 172  .268  .724

The ace of the Oriole staff, Mussina put together another outstanding year in 1999. A liner off the bat of Brook Fordyce on August 22nd hit Mussina in the shoulder, knocking him out of the game. The injury would cause him to miss his next four starts, costing him a shot at his first 20-win season. An inning later in the same game, another liner -- this time from Chris Singleton -- would knock out Arthur Rhodes, Mussina's replacement. The shoulder injury didn't seem to bother Mike down the stretch, as he finished with back-to-back scoreless outings.

Scott Erickson, starter, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  4.33  32 32  13 13  0  226 249 21  63 143  .284  .747
Prorated   Bal  4.33  33 33  13 13  0  235 258 22  65 148  .284  .747
Actual     Bal  4.81  34 34  15 12  0  230 244 27  99 106  .280  .791

His higher than anticipated ERA was due to the worst control of his career. A strong finish enabled Erickson to avoid what was shaping up to be a disastrous year. After his loss to the Phillies on June 4th, he had a 1-8 record to go with a 7.11 ERA. From then on, however, he went 14-4 with a 3.81 ERA.

Juan Guzman, starter, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  4.07  32 32  13 10  0  210 189 28  92 170  .241  .733
Prorated   Bal  4.07  19 19   8  6  0  128 115 17  56 103  .241  .733
Actual     Bal  4.18  21 21   5  9  0  123 124 18  65  95  .265  .796

Prorated   Cin  4.07  11 11   5  4  0   75  68 10  33  61  .241  .733
Actual     Cin  3.03  12 12   6  3  0   77  70 10  21  60  .238  .675

Prorated   Tot  4.07  31 31  13 10  0  203 182 27  89 164  .241  .733
Actual     Tot  3.74  33 33  11 12  0  200 194 28  86 155  .255  .750

He did slightly better than expected in 1999. Unfortunately for the Orioles, most of his best pitching took place after he was traded to the Reds at the end of July. Like Erickson, he started slowly (0-3 with a 8.10 ERA in April) and got better as the year progressed. B.J. Ryan, who came to Baltimore in the trade, pitched extremely well at the end of the season and should be a prominent member of the O's bullpen in 2000.

Sidney Ponson, starter, age 22

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  5.25  27 27   8 10  0  159 186 23  55 103  .294  .807
Prorated   Bal  5.25  35 35  10 13  0  204 238 29  70 132  .294  .807
Actual     Bal  4.71  32 32  12 12  0  210 227 35  80 112  .282  .813

He was somewhat of a pleasant surprise despite tying the club mark for homers allowed with 35, joining Robin Roberts (1963) and Scott McGregor (1986). He did noticeably better with more than four days rest between starts (3.43 ERA compared to a 5.48).

Jason Johnson, starter, age 25

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  6.05   4  4   1  1  0   19  22  3   8  14  .286  .824
Prorated   Bal  6.05  23 23   6  6  0  113 129 18  47  82  .286  .824
Actual     Bal  5.46  22 21   8  7  0  115 120 16  55  71  .267  .783

Johnson got his chance to move into the rotation when Kamieniecki failed to pitch effectively as a starter. He was another of the Oriole starters who finished strongly, going 5-0 with a 3.38 ERA after the middle of August.

Mike Timlin, closer, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  3.43  70  0   4  6 30   76  79  8  17  56  .271  .707
Prorated   Bal  3.43  58  0   3  5 25   63  65  7  14  46  .271  .707
Actual     Bal  3.57  62  0   3  9 27   63  51  9  23  50  .221  .685

Timlin came over from Seattle to replace the departing Benitez and was given the closer's job in spring training. His work in the first half of the season had Ray Miller trying Rhodes, Orosco and Gabe Molina in the role as well. On July 6th, he had a 3-8 record, a 5.35 ERA, and nearly as many blown saves (8) as saves (9). A strong second half got him his job back, as he finished by converting 18 of his remaining 19 save opportunities while posting a 1.30 ERA in his last 30 games.

Doug Johns, swing man, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  6.24  34  4   3  5  0   71  91 10  28  33  .318  .882
Prorated   Bal  6.24  39  5   3  6  0   81 104 11  32  38  .318  .882
Actual     Bal  4.47  32  5   6  4  0   87  81  9  25  50  .248  .702

He entered the season with a 5.32 lifetime ERA and as recently as 1997 was pitching poorly (4-6 with a 5.38 ERA) in AAA. He moved between Baltimore and Rochester in the early going, before coming up to stay in May. He ended up pitching exactly as many innings as he had the year before, while allowing 27 fewer hits and 7 fewer walks. He also pitched effectively as a starter when given a shot late in the year.

Scott Kamieniecki, middle reliever, age 35

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  5.44  27 27   7  9  0  132 152 18  59  74  .292  .834
Prorated   Bal  5.44  11 11   3  4  0   55  63  8  25  31  .292  .834
Actual     Bal  4.95  43  3   2  4  2   56  52  4  29  39  .250  .704

Originally slated for a starting role, Kamieniecki began the season on the DL with hamstring problems. He got hammered in two starts (13 earned runs in 5 innings) after his return and was sent to the minors for three weeks. He pitched pretty well in relief the rest of the way before getting an opportunity to start the last game of the season. Kamieniecki took a no-hitter into the fourth inning of that game before being ejected for throwing a brush-back pitch.

Jesse Orosco, Middle Relief, age 42

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  2.92  70  0   5  2  1   74  56  8  43  67  .211  .658
Prorated   Bal  2.92  32  0   2  1  0   34  26  4  20  31  .211  .658
Actual     Bal  5.34  65  0   0  2  1   32  28  5  20  35  .239  .788

If you only looked at the right hand side of the "Prorated" and "Actual" lines above, you might get the idea that Orosco's season ended up being close to his projected performance. The ERA line, however, tells a very different story. When you're dealing with such a small number of innings (despite a lot of appearances) the timing of a few hits can cause large swings. For example, of the five home runs he gave up in 1999, two were with the bases loaded and two more were three-run shots. He's been one of the most effective and under-appreciated lefty relievers of his era but his difficulty getting left-handed hitters out last year might signal the end of the line for Orosco.

Mike Fetters, Middle Relief, age 34

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  3.75  70  0   6  4  3   98  95  8  43  78  .257  .717
Prorated   Bal  3.75  25  0   2  1  1   35  34  3  15  28  .257  .717
Actual     Bal  5.81  27  0   1  0  0   31  35  5  22  22  .278  .877

Fetters was expected to be an important part of the Orioles bullpen in 1999, but he injured his elbow in early June and was out for nearly three months. Even before his injury, he was having the poorest season of his career and it only got worse after his return.

Arthur Lee Rhodes, Middle Relief, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  3.16  53  0   4  2  2   57  50  6  22  63  .237  .691
Prorated   Bal  3.16  54  0   4  2  2   58  51  6  22  64  .237  .691
Actual     Bal  5.43  43  0   3  4  3   53  43  9  45  59  .221  .753

His control abandoned him in 1999. Actually, it has been leaving him for a while now; over the last three years his rate of walks per nine innings has gone from 2.45 to 3.97 to 7.64. Pitched only once after getting hit by a line-drive on August 22nd.

Heathcliff Slocumb, Middle Relief, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bal  4.15  53  0   4  3  0   69  73  5  43  57  .273  .759
Prorated   Bal  4.15   8  0   1  0  0   11  11  1   7   9  .273  .759
Actual     Bal 12.46  10  0   0  0  0    9  15  2   9  12  .395 1.215

Prorated   StL  4.15  40  0   3  2  0   52  55  4  32  43  .273  .759
Actual     StL  2.36  40  0   3  2  2   53  49  3  30  48  .243  .679

Prorated   Tot  4.15  48  0   4  2  0   63  66  5  39  52  .273  .759
Actual     Tot  3.77  50  0   3  2  2   62  64  5  39  60  .267  .766

He couldn't get anyone out in Baltimore and the Orioles gave up on him at the end of April. He made a surprising recovery once he turned up in St. Louis and his final numbers were very close to our original projections.

Outlook

Peter Angelos fired GM Frank Wren (who had served less than a year) and manager Ray Miller shortly after the end of the season, letting the world know who he thought was responsible for the team's second consecutive losing season. Before the shake-up, the Orioles spent September showing off some of their younger players. For much of the month, Jerry Hairston was at second, Gene Kingsale in center, Calvin Pickering at first, Matt Riley in the starting rotation and B.J. Ryan and Gabe Molina in the bullpen. This might signal a change in direction for this expensively mediocre team, but it's too soon to tell. The Orioles were the first team to sign a free-agent this off-season when they inked Mike Trombley of the Twins to a three-year deal. He'll be 33 by the time 2000 rolls around and could be the first of another large crop of veteran imports. Angelos has decided not to hire a new general manager for the time being, letting a five-man committee (including two of his sons) run the circus instead.

Despite problems at the top, the Orioles finished the year on a strong note and their pitching staff was one of the best in the AL down the stretch. They still need to round out their starting rotation -- Matt Riley doesn't look as if he will be quite ready next year and Mike Mussina is entering the final year of his contract in 2000 and may spend much of the summer on the trading block. A bigger problem for the O's, however, will be the age of their lineup. Ripken and Clark are both old and coming off of injuries. With the exception of Hairston and Belle, all of their regulars are likely to get worse rather than better next year. Baltimore may be entering a rebuilding phase and that can't be good news for new manager Mike Hargrove or those members of the GM committee unrelated to the owner.

Projections and text: Copyright © 1999. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 1999 statistics: Copyright © 1999. STATS, Inc. All right reserved.