1999 Post-Season Review -- Boston Red Sox

By Tom Tippett
December 14, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Boston Red Sox did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                   Projected  Actual
Runs for              856      836
Runs allowed          828      718
Run Margin            +28     +118
Wins                   83       94
Pythagorean wins       84       93
Placement             2nd      2nd

In 1998, Boston surprised a lot of people by finishing with the second-best record in the AL (92-70). They did it with a balanced team effort that ranked second in the league in staff ERA, third in runs scored, and fourth in fielding percentage. Most years, their run margin of 876-729 would have been good enough to win the division, but the Yankees won 114 games and ran away from everyone.

Despite that strong performance and the likelihood that the Yankees would be unable to match their dream season, it was still hard to imagine that the Red Sox would be able to give the Yankees much of a fight in 1999. The attack couldn't help but suffer from the loss of Mo Vaughn and the return to normal of some mediocre hitters (such as Darren Lewis and Damon Buford) who were coming off career years. And the key additions to the pitching staff, Pat Rapp and Mark Portugal, were nothing to get excited about. Most preseason publications picked them to finish fourth in the division.

The offense did suffer, falling to ninth in runs despite the continued excellence of Nomar Garciaparra and strong performances from Troy O'Leary, Jason Varitek, and Brian Daubach. But a league-leading display of pitching and defense made for a very interesting division race that saw the Sox pull within three games of the Yankees in September. While their league-best record of 38-21 in August and September wasn't quite enough to wrest the division title from their New York rivals, it gave them the wildcard with a seven-game cushion.

This performance earned Jimy Williams the Manager of the Year award, and deservedly so, in my opinion. Williams uses the full roster, putting players into situations that fit their strengths and avoid their weaknesses. He builds confidence by sticking with guys even when they're struggling, and while he's not averse to sitting a slumping player for a day or two, he'll find the first opportunity to get him back on the field and contributing. When he showed his toughness by benching Pedro Martinez for arriving late for his pregame preparation, the team backed the manager, not the player. Best of all, he managed his bullpen in 1970s style. If a reliever was pitching well, he'd leave him out there to finish the game, even if it meant going three or four innings. None of this knee-jerk "it's the ninth so I have to go to the closer now" mentality that so many managers exhibit today.

Key Position Players

Before the season started, conventional wisdom held that the loss of Mo Vaughn would destroy the offense, not only because his bat would be missed, but because nobody would pitch to Garciaparra, the one remaining threat in the batting order. The loss of Vaughn probably did hurt a little, but Brian Daubach and Mike Stanley combined to hit .281 with 30 homers and 101 RBI while playing 1B, and Garciaparra was pitched around so much that he merely won the batting title, slugged .603, and drove in 104 runs despite missing 27 games to injury.

The team must be encouraged by the fact that many of the players who were better than expected are the younger ones -- Jason Varitek (27), Brian Daubach (27), Garciaparra (25), Trot Nixon (25) -- though veterans such as Jose Offerman (30) and Mike Stanley (36) also raised their games a little. The disappointments came from older players such as John Valentin, Reggie Jefferson, and Darren Lewis. The promising debut of 21-year-old 3B Wilton Veras was another reason to think this offense can get better in the future.

Jason Varitek, c, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 186  47 10  0  6  25  25  1  15  1  36  1  1  .253  .309  .403  .712  22
Prorated   Bos 491 124 26  0 15  66  66  2  39  2  95  2  2  .253  .307  .397  .704  56
Actual     Bos 483 130 39  2 20  70  76  2  46  2  85  1  2  .269  .330  .482  .813  76

Varitek platooned with Hatteberg in 1998 and appeared to be headed for a similar role in 1999. But when Hatteberg came down with a strained elbow in mid-April and missed four months, Varitek flourished as the everyday backstop. With his steady improvement at the plate and behind it, together with his success hitting both lefties and righties, he might have won the full-time job even if Hatteberg was healthy.

Scott Hatteberg, c, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 366  98 24  1 11  49  46  4  47  2  66  0  0  .268  .356  .429  .785  56
Prorated   Bos  87  23  5  0  2  11  10  0  11  0  15  0  0  .264  .347  .391  .738  12
Actual     Bos  80  22  5  0  1  12  11  1  18  0  14  0  0  .275  .410  .375  .785  14

As I mentioned in the Varitek comment, Hatteberg missed two-thirds of the season with a bad elbow. He's a good hitter for a catcher, but he doesn't throw very well even when his elbow is at full strength, so his future with the Red Sox may be as a DH/PH type and occasional catcher. With the emergence of Varitek and prospect Steve Lomasney waiting in the wings, Hatteberg is a candidate to be traded away.

Mike Stanley, 1b/dh, age 36

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 489 126 26  0 26  76  78  8  75  5 110  1  1  .258  .360  .470  .831  86
Prorated   Bos 431 111 22  0 22  67  68  7  66  4  97  0  0  .258  .360  .462  .822  75
Actual     Bos 427 120 22  0 19  59  72 11  70  3  94  0  0  .281  .393  .466  .859  83

I thought so at the time, and I still think so. One of GM Dan Duquette's best moves was trading for Stanley in 1998 so he'd have some insurance if Mo Vaughn decided to leave for greener pastures. Stanley did his part offensively, virtually matching Vaughn's 1999 output and exceeding his own career norms in most respects. But Stanley's getting up in years and his defense was quite shaky -- 11 errors and subpar range -- so it's not clear how much longer this solution will be viable.

Brian Daubach, 1b, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 169  45 14  0  6  26  28  4  22  2  41  2  2  .266  .359  .456  .814  28
Prorated   Bos 358  95 29  0 12  55  59  8  46  4  86  4  4  .265  .356  .447  .803  58
Actual     Bos 381 112 33  3 21  61  73  3  36  0  92  0  1  .294  .360  .562  .921  77

With the Mets and the Marlins having given up on him, Daubach was ready to sign with a Japanese team when Dan Duquette called in January to invite him to spring training. He was promised nothing more than a chance to compete for a job, and with veterans like Stanley, Jefferson, Bob Hamelin and others in the 1B/DH mix, it was anything but a sure thing. But he wanted to give it one last shot, and he made the most of it.

Daubach was surprised when Florida wrote him off after he hit .316 with 45 doubles, 35 homers, 80 walks, and 124 RBI in AAA Charlotte the year before. I was, too. A Florida scout claimed that Daubach was a terrible fielder and that anyone could put up big numbers in the Charlotte ballpark. But the Howe SportsData ballpark ratings showed that the Charlotte park had no overall effect on offense, one way or the other. And Daubach claims that the Mets had told him that his defense was fine but they didn't think he'd ever hit.

Either the scouts were dead wrong or this was a major fluke. Or maybe a little of both. A late-season slump (.173 with 3 RBI in September) raises the possibility that opposing pitchers have figured him out, but there's no doubt that Daubach made the right choice back in January. No matter what happens in the future, he was a big part of the Red Sox success in 1999, and he demonstrated once again that scouting is not an exact science.

Jose Offerman, 2b, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 620 188 36  8  4  96  60  4  79  2 104 30 14  .303  .383  .406  .790 103
Prorated   Bos 603 182 35  7  3  93  58  3  76  1 101 29 13  .302  .381  .398  .779  97
Actual     Bos 586 172 37 11  8 107  69  2  96  5  79 18 12  .294  .391  .435  .826 105

When Duquette signed Offerman to a four-year contract worth $24 million, he was widely criticized for going way above the market. But the move accomplished three objectives -- giving the Sox an everyday 2B in the event that Jeff Frye's knees weren't ready for full-time duty, giving Donnie Sadler another year to develop, and (most importantly) getting Darren Lewis out of the leadoff spot.

There's talk of moving Offerman to center field next year, mainly because the team isn't at all happy with his ability to turn the double play. Other than that, his defense isn't as bad as some say. His range is only a little below average, and he made only three more errors than the average 2B. Most teams could live with that in return for 270 times on base and 56 extra-base hits.

Jeff Frye, 2b/3b/ss, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 276  79 21  1  2  40  30  3  24  1  33 12  4  .286  .345  .391  .737  38
Prorated   Bos 117  33  8  0  0  16  12  1  10  0  13  5  1  .282  .341  .350  .692  15
Actual     Bos 114  32  3  0  1  14  12  1  14  1  11  2  2  .281  .362  .333  .695  14

Frye missed all of 1998 after he blew out his knee on the first day of spring training. While it's not at all clear that he's as mobile as he was prior to the injury, he can still get on base and play adequate defense at several positions.

John Valentin, 3b, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 573 151 42  2 18  98  68  7  64  3  70  5  5  .264  .342  .438  .780  86
Prorated   Bos 442 116 32  1 13  75  52  5  49  2  54  3  3  .262  .341  .428  .768  64
Actual     Bos 450 114 27  1 12  58  70  4  40  2  68  0  1  .253  .315  .398  .713  56

The good news is that Valentin is a gutty, fiercely competitive guy who's not afraid to play hurt. The bad news is that he has a tendency to play even when he's hurting too much to be effective. This year, he tried to play with a bad knee, and the result was the worst offensive season of his eight-year career. When the knee put him on the DL for most of September, many Boston fans wanted to see Wilton Veras take Valentin's place on the postseason roster, but Williams' faith in Valentin was rewarded when he became the hero of the comeback victory over Cleveland. He had minor knee surgery after the season and is expected to be ready for spring training.

Wilton Veras, 3b, age 21

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     Bos 118  34  5  1  2  14  13  2   5  0  14  0  2  .288  .323  .398  .721  13

Veras made a strong impression on Jimy Williams during spring training, but found himself stuck behind Valentin and another good prospect (Cole Liniak). Even though Veras had already proved himself at AA Trenton in 1998, he was sent back there so he and Liniak could both play every day. Another strong season in Trenton led to his being called up (ahead of Liniak) when Valentin went on the DL in July, and he immediately became a fan favorite with sparkling defense and some key hits. Liniak was traded to the Cubs in the Rod Beck deal, so the path is now clear for Veras to take the 3B job in the next year or two.

Nomar Garciaparra, ss, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 598 186 37  8 32 110 108  6  31  1  65 15  6  .311  .348  .560  .908 112
Prorated   Bos 554 172 34  7 29 101 100  5  28  0  60 13  5  .310  .346  .554  .900 102
Actual     Bos 532 190 42  4 27 103 104  8  51  7  39 14  3  .357  .418  .603 1.022 136

Several times during the year, Garciaparra missed games with various leg-related ailments (hamstring, strained quad, groin, ankle), and he wasn't as spectacular in the field as he had been the previous two seasons. Thanks in part to the hamstring problem, his first homer didn't come until May. Then he started hitting and didn't stop until he'd won the batting title.

Take a look at the strikeouts. You could slip this stat line into Joe Dimaggio's career record and it wouldn't look out of place. Like Dimaggio, Garciaparra hits for average and power, he hits in the clutch, he plays a key defensive position with grace and skill, he's a team leader, and he's a class act.

Donnie Sadler, ss/2b/3b/cf, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos  66  15  2  1  1  10   5  1   6  0  13  3  1  .227  .297  .333  .631   7
Prorated   Bos 101  23  3  1  1  15   7  1   9  0  19  4  1  .228  .295  .307  .602  10
Actual     Bos 107  30  5  1  0  18   4  0   5  0  20  2  1  .280  .313  .346  .658  12

A terrific defensive player with great speed, Sadler is held in high regard by the club. But with Offerman at second, Garciaparra at short, and either Valentin or Veras at third, it's far from clear where he's going to play. There's some talk that he might be moved to center, but he hasn't yet shown enough offense to be an asset there. After the season, Sadler had shoulder surgery to repair a minor tear, but he's expected to be ready for spring training.

Lou Merloni, ss/3b/2b, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos  90  24  5  0  2  12  13  3   7  0  14  1  1  .267  .340  .389  .729  12
Prorated   Bos 124  33  6  0  2  16  18  4   9  0  19  1  1  .266  .336  .363  .699  16
Actual     Bos 126  32  7  0  1  18  13  2   8  0  16  0  0  .254  .307  .333  .640  12

A local boy and a fan favorite, Merloni has been a solid AA and AAA player for four years and a useful utility player for the Sox the past two seasons. But the team doesn't project him into a meaningful role in the future, partly because he made ten errors in limited play this year, and has dropped him from the 40-man roster. It looks as if he might play in Japan for a year before testing the free agent market.

Troy O'Leary, lf, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 556 154 34  7 19  80  81  4  40  4  89  1  2  .277  .328  .466  .794  82
Prorated   Bos 607 168 37  7 20  87  88  4  43  4  97  1  2  .277  .327  .460  .786  87
Actual     Bos 596 167 36  4 28  84 103  4  56  5  91  1  2  .280  .343  .495  .838  96

For the second year in a row, O'Leary started strong and tailed off in the second half. But the dropoff was much smaller this year, and the result was his best season. He had career highs in hits, walks, doubles, homers, and RBI. Boston fans will no doubt remember him best for the two homers and seven RBI he clubbed in the deciding game of the Cleveland series, with both homers coming immediately after Garciaparra was intentionally walked.

Darren Lewis, cf, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 507 126 20  2  6  77  54  6  59  0  78 27 10  .249  .332  .331  .663  60
Prorated   Bos 467 116 18  1  5  70  49  5  54  0  71 24  9  .248  .331  .323  .654  54
Actual     Bos 470 113 14  6  2  63  40  5  45  0  52 16 10  .240  .311  .309  .620  48

The Sox have finished second and first in ERA the past two seasons, and while Pedro Martinez deserves most of the credit, Lewis' defense has played a significant part, too. In 1998, Lewis had a career year at the plate, and that was enough to make him a useful leadoff hitter. But to nobody's surprise, he returned to his normal level in 1999, a level which is nowhere near good enough for the everyday CF on a championship-caliber team.

Damon Buford, cf, age 29

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 187  45 11  1  6  28  26  1  16  0  40  6  4  .241  .302  .406  .709  22
Prorated   Bos 294  70 17  1  9  44  40  1  25  0  62  9  6  .238  .299  .395  .694  33
Actual     Bos 297  72 15  2  6  39  38  2  21  0  74  9  2  .242  .294  .367  .661  33

Like Lewis, Buford has (a) always been a very good defensive outfielder and a subpar hitter who (b) surprised at the plate in 1998 and came back to earth in 1999. A year ago, Buford clobbered left-handed pitchers and beefed up his overall totals in the process, but he didn't hit lefties or righties in 1999. The Sox realized that they can't set aside roster spots for both Lewis and Buford when they desperately need more offense from their outfielders, and they traded Buford to the Cubs for utility infielder Manny Alexander.

Trot Nixon, rf, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 412 103 17  2 10  63  49  2  42  3  62 12  7  .250  .319  .374  .693  50
Prorated   Bos 396  99 16  1  9  60  47  1  40  2  59 11  6  .250  .317  .364  .681  46
Actual     Bos 381 103 22  5 15  67  52  3  53  1  75  3  1  .270  .357  .472  .830  68

Ever since he was chosen in the first round of the 1993 draft, Boston fans have been hearing that Nixon is a terrific athlete and a star in the making. But he struggled with injuries and inconsistency in the minors until a strong AAA season 1998 (.310, 76 walks, 23 homers, 26 steals) earned him the starting RF job in 1999.

Were it not for the undying faith of Jimy Williams and the fact that he was out of options and couldn't be sent down without being put on waivers, he would have lost that job very quickly. He looked totally lost at the plate in the early going, finishing April with a .105 batting average and a grand total of 3 RBI. But after Williams suggested a change in his batting stroke, Nixon came on to exceed his projections across the board.

It's hard to say whether Nixon will ever be the star he was once expected to be. On the plus side, he's a good athlete and a fierce competitor, and he's been showing steady improvement since he got past his injury problems. On the other hand, he's been helped by good hitter's parks in both Pawtucket and Boston, and he's yet to have a truly outstanding season. And he ranked in the bottom third of major-league RFs in offensive production this year.

Jon Nunnally, rf, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 117  27  6  1  5  19  17  1  17  1  30  2  2  .231  .328  .427  .756  17
Prorated   Bos  11   2  0  0  0   1   1  0   1  0   3  0  0  .182  .250  .182  .432   0
Actual     Bos  14   4  1  0  0   4   1  0   0  0   6  0  0  .286  .286  .357  .643   1

Nunnally didn't play enough to warrant a comment, but I wanted to mention him because he's intrigued me for a few years now. His batting averages have never been impressive, but he draws a lot of walks and hits for power -- 40 homers in 811 major league atbats. In AAA Pawtucket, he posted a .374 on-base percentage and added 23 homers and 26 steals. I don't understand why he hasn't been given a full-time job somewhere. The Sox recently traded him to the Mets (for Jermaine Allensworth), so maybe he'll get his chance there.

Butch Huskey, rf, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Sea 182  50 10  0  9  23  31  0  12  2  31  3  2  .275  .315  .478  .793  25
Prorated   Sea 269  74 14  0 13  34  45  0  17  2  45  4  2  .275  .314  .472  .786  37
Actual     Sea 262  76  9  0 15  44  49  0  27  0  45  3  1  .290  .353  .496  .849  48

Prorated   Bos 121  33  6  0  5  15  20  0   7  1  20  1  1  .273  .310  .446  .756  15
Actual     Bos 124  33  6  0  7  18  28  0   7  1  20  0  0  .266  .305  .484  .789  16

Prorated   Tot 390 107 21  0 19  49  66  0  25  4  66  6  4  .274  .314  .474  .788  53
Actual     Tot 386 109 15  0 22  62  77  0  34  1  65  3  1  .282  .338  .492  .830  63

In need of a right-handed power hitter, the Sox traded lefty pitching prospect Rob Ramsay to the Mariners for Huskey around the trading deadline, and Huskey promptly came up with some big hits in a key series in Toronto. I would have liked to see him play a little more. I don't think he's the defensive liability he's made out to be, and there's no question the Sox could use more power from the outfield positions.

Reggie Jefferson, 1b, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bos 323  97 22  1 11  47  48  3  22  3  64  0  1  .300  .349  .477  .825  51
Prorated   Bos 207  62 14  0  7  30  30  1  14  1  41  0  0  .300  .345  .469  .814  31
Actual     Bos 206  57 13  1  5  21  17  2  17  0  54  0  0  .277  .338  .422  .760  27

It was a strange season for Jefferson. Two years ago, Jefferson contended for the batting title until the last two weeks of the season, but once again proved that he can't hit lefties well enough to be an everyday player. Nevertheless, he was so good against righties that he appeared to have a secure job as a platoon DH. But his 1998 season was ended early with back problems and he wasn't yet back to 100% in spring training. So he began 1999 on the DL despite his claims that he was ready to play, and the club didn't activate him until he threatened to file a grievance.

Once he was activated, he found himself splitting time with Daubach and never really got into a groove. Maybe it was his health or the fact that he wasn't playing as much, but this was his worst year since 1993. He almost never walks, so when his average and power start to slip, it's hard to keep running him out there, especially since he's a poor defensive player who's limited to the DH role.

To his credit, he never complained about the lack of playing time, even when Daubach was in a prolonged slump late in the year. But he finally lost his cool and went home in a huff when he was left off the post-season roster. He's a free agent.

Key Pitchers

I'm not sure which is more amazing -- Pedro Martinez' performance or the fact that the Red Sox became the first team to lead their league in staff ERA despite going through 25 different pitchers. There have only been 26 occasions in baseball history when a team used 25 or more pitchers in a season, 23 of them since 1990. Only four of those 26 teams finished in the top half in team ERA, and most were in the bottom three. The only other 25-pitcher team to come close to the league lead was the 1995 Red Sox, who ranked 3rd.

Jimy Williams and pitching coach Joe Kerrigan never had a chance to settle into a routine. Nine different pitchers visited the DL, some for extended periods and some more than once. Included in this group were their #1 starter (Martinez), #2 starter (Bret Saberhagen, three times), top closer (Tom Gordon), and their two best hopes to bolster the rotation down the stretch (Ramon Martinez and Kent Mercker). Nevertheless, thanks to Pedro's dominance, some key outings from Pat Rapp, Tim Wakefield's ability to close games, and very good seasons from Derek Lowe and Rheal Cormier, they were able to keep it together week after week.

Despite a small increase in league-wide scoring, the Sox allowed 110 fewer runs than projected, and Pedro is far from the only reason. True, he was awesome, about 70 runs better than the league average all by himself, but he was projected to be 50+ runs better than the league going in. So while Saberhagen, Rapp, and Lowe weren't as great as Martinez, they were bigger surprises, with each of them allowing 20+ fewer runs than projected. In fact, Rapp was the biggest surprise of all, as he was projected to give up 36 more runs than he did.

Pedro Martinez, Starter, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  2.73  32 32  16  7  0  224 173 22  65 242  .213  .614
Prorated   Bos  2.73  30 30  15  7  0  209 161 21  61 226  .213  .614
Actual     Bos  2.07  31 29  23  4  0  213 160  9  37 313  .205  .536

Incredible. His ERA was 2.79 runs and 58% below the league average. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was 8.5 to 1. He had his best outings against the best teams, and he dominated the Indians and Yankees in the postseason. He won the Cy Young award and came very close to winning the MVP. To do this in a DH league, in a hitter's park, and in a year when boatloads of homerun and scoring records were broken, is simply amazing. And he's only 27 years old.

Here's another way to look at his season. Among major-league hitters with at least 400 plate appearances, Minnesota's Cristian Guzman was the least productive hitter with a total of on-base plus slugging of only .543. Martinez held the entire league to a lower OPS than that. In other words, no matter who he was playing, his average outing made his opponents look a little worse than a lineup of nine Guzmans.

Bret Saberhagen, Starter, age 35

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  4.48  32 32  10 10  0  181 195 25  37 101  .275  .764
Prorated   Bos  4.48  20 20   6  6  0  113 122 16  23  63  .275  .764
Actual     Bos  2.95  22 22  10  6  0  119 122 11  11  81  .265  .698

Saberhagen missed all of the 1996 season and most of 1997 after having his shoulder rebuilt, and going into 1999, there were a few things you knew about him -- his control would be outstanding, he'd come up big when the team needed him most, seven innings would be a long outing for him, and his career could end at any time.

He was outstanding when he was able to pitch at full strength, but he lost most of May to shoulder problems, spent two weeks on the DL in June after he cut his foot, and saw his season come to a premature end when his shoulder weakened again in August. He's now projected to be out for the first half of 2000 after rotator cuff surgery.

I love watching Saberhagen pitch, and after all he's been through, I find myself rooting harder for him than just about anyone in the game right now.

Mark Portugal, Starter, age 36

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  5.48  32 32   9 15  0  207 245 34  49 114  .295  .832
Prorated   Bos  5.48  24 24   7 11  0  154 182 25  36  85  .295  .832
Actual     Bos  5.51  31 27   7 12  0  150 179 28  41  79  .292  .828

I didn't expect much when the Sox signed him as a free agent on the strength of a few strong starts with the Phillies late in 1998. He hadn't pitched all that well in recent years, and I figured it wasn't likely to get any better in a hitter's park and a DH league. He had some good outings, but the sum total was right in line with projections. When the team concluded that there was no room for Portugal on the post-season roster, they chose to release him a few days before the season ended.

Pat Rapp, Swing man, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  6.28  19 19   5  8  0  105 133 13  59  69  .314  .882
Prorated   Bos  6.28  25 25   6 10  0  135 172 17  76  89  .314  .882
Actual     Bos  4.12  37 26   6  7  0  146 147 13  69  90  .263  .734

Rapp is probably best known for being the first pick of the Florida Marlins in the 1992 expansion draft. Despite three straight poor seasons, the Sox decided to give him a shot, and I couldn't figure out why. But the move paid off when Rapp came on strong to post a 3.12 ERA in the second half and help hold the staff together when Saberhagen was out and Wakefield was closing. Boston declined to exercise a $3m option for 2000, then tried and failed to sign him for less money, so he won't be back.

Tim Wakefield, Starter/closer, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  4.90  32 32  10 12  0  189 193 27  77 129  .265  .791
Prorated   Bos  4.90  24 24   8  9  0  144 147 21  59  98  .265  .791
Actual     Bos  5.08  49 17   6 11 15  140 146 19  72 104  .266  .785

Once again, Wakefield proved to be a valuable member of the staff despite mediocre stats. He struggled as a starting pitcher, but when Tom Gordon went down, Wakefield moved into the closer role and saved 15 games in 18 opportunities. That move stabilized the bullpen at a time when they felt Derek Lowe wasn't yet experienced enough to handle the job. It's unclear what role he'll play in the future, but his ability to pitch on short rest and his willingness to do whatever is asked of him gives the team a lot of options.

Brian Rose, Starter, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  6.02  34  4   3  5  0   61  76 10  20  34  .305  .859
Prorated   Bos  6.02  53  6   5  8  0   96 119 16  31  53  .305  .859
Actual     Bos  4.87  22 18   7  6  0   98 112 19  29  51  .280  .819

Rose struggled with injury and performance in 1998 after a very good season with AAA Pawtucket in 1997. Last year, he pitched very well in the first half, including back-to-back wins over the Yankees. He relies on control and deception, but hitters began to figure him out as the season progressed, and he was sent down to AAA after a series of poor starts. The team was concerned about a tired arm, and he didn't pitch much after the demotion.

Ramon Martinez, Starter, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  4.44   8  8   3  3  0   51  49  6  27  43  .255  .761
Prorated   Bos  4.44   3  3   1  1  0   19  18  2  10  16  .255  .761
Actual     Bos  3.05   4  4   2  1  0   21  14  2   8  15  .192  .614

Pedro's older brother was signed to a two-year deal in the spring even though 1998 rotator cuff surgery would keep him out at least until August. For a while, it seemed as if he might return ahead of schedule, but a couple of minor setbacks pushed him back. His first big-league start was unimpressive, but he continued to get better with each outing, and capped his season with a very strong outing against the Yankees in game two of the ALCS. If he's all the way back, and it looks as if he will be for 2000, you'd be hard-pressed to find another team with a better 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.

Kent Mercker, Starter, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection StL  5.16  32 32   9 11  0  171 205 18  64  82  .298  .803
Prorated   StL  5.16  20 20   6  7  0  106 127 11  40  51  .298  .803
Actual     StL  5.12  25 18   6  5  0  104 125 16  51  64  .303  .885

Prorated   Bos  5.16   5  5   1  2  0   25  30  3   9  12  .298  .803
Actual     Bos  3.51   5  5   2  0  0   26  23  0  13  17  .235  .644

Prorated   Tot  5.16  25 25   7  8  0  131 157 14  49  63  .298  .803
Actual     Tot  4.80  30 23   8  5  0  129 148 16  64  81  .290  .839

Mercker was a nice trade-deadline pickup for the Sox, who wanted a lefty starter who could match up well with Cleveland and New York in the playoffs. And he pitched well until he cracked a rib chasing a foul popup just before the season ended. He's a free agent now.

Jin Ho Cho, Starter, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  6.05   4  4   1  1  0   19  25  3   5  14  .313  .881
Prorated   Bos  6.05   8  8   2  2  0   38  49  6  10  27  .312  .881
Actual     Bos  5.72   9  7   2  3  0   39  45  7   8  16  .287  .820

One of several promising young pitchers the Sox have signed out of the Far East, Cho's debut was about what one could expect from someone who hadn't pitched above AA until this season. His minor-league record has been very good at every stop (9-3, 3.45 at AAA last year), so it looks like he could be a good one, though it might be asking a little too much to expect him to be ready to step into the rotation next year.

Juan Pena, Starter, age 22

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  6.48   3  3   1  1  0   17  22  3   7  16  .324  .934
Prorated   Bos  6.48   2  2   1  1  0   10  14  2   4  10  .324  .934
Actual     Bos   .69   2  2   2  0  0   13   9  0   3  15  .196  .462

In 1998, Pena pitched reasonably well for AAA Pawtucket, and that's a pretty good sign for a player who began the season at age 20. After two brilliant starts for the Red Sox, Pena went on the DL with a stiff shoulder. It wasn't reported to be serious, but he never quite made it back, either. And then he began experiencing tightness in his elbow as well. If he's healthy, he'll compete for a rotation spot next year, but he's still pretty young, and it might be another year or two before his presence is felt at the big-league level.

John Wasdin, Long reliever, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  4.89  44  4   4  5  0   92 100 14  25  57  .276  .793
Prorated   Bos  4.89  34  3   3  4  0   70  76 11  19  43  .276  .793
Actual     Bos  4.12  45  0   8  3  2   74  66 14  18  57  .236  .712

Red Sox radio announcer Jerry Trupiano has a trademark homerun call that includes the phrase "way back", and some Boston fans have taken to using that term as a nickname for Wasdin. You might recall that the Sox traded Jose Canseco to Oakland straight up for Wasdin three years ago. Since then, he's pitched well in stretches, and even managed to hold opposing hitters to a .236 average last year. But those longballs get him way too often -- once every six innings so far in his career -- and it seems as if most of them are three-run shots.

Rheal Cormier, Middle reliever, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  5.86  53  0   3  5  0   71  89 11  20  43  .309  .843
Prorated   Bos  5.86  46  0   3  4  0   61  77 10  17  37  .309  .843
Actual     Bos  3.69  60  0   2  0  0   63  61  4  18  39  .246  .661

I think it's fair to say that this was the best season of his career. He had a 3.68 and won 10 games for the Cardinals in 1992, but that was in a non-DH league and in a pitcher's park. In 1999, he held lefties to a .198 average and was pretty effective against righties, too. If he can continue to keep the ball in the park like he did in 1999, he'll be a valuable lefty reliever for years to come.

Jim Corsi, Middle reliever, age 37

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  3.46  53  0   5  3  0   75  74  6  27  52  .261  .709
Prorated   Bos  3.46  19  0   2  1  0   27  26  2  10  18  .261  .709
Actual     Bos  5.25  23  0   1  2  0   24  25  4  19  14  .284  .884

Prorated   Bal  3.46   9  0   1  1  0   13  12  1   5   9  .261  .709
Actual     Bal  2.70  13  0   0  1  0   13  15  2   1   8  .294  .719

Prorated   Tot  3.46  28  0   3  2  0   39  39  3  14  27  .261  .709
Actual     Tot  4.34  36  0   1  3  0   37  40  6  20  22  .288  .829

Corsi was a late bloomer who carved out a nice little niche for himself as a right-handed setup man. His control had been pretty good for most of his career, but the Sox lost patience with him when he issued 19 walks in 24 innings to start the year. He was better in a short stint with Baltimore.

Bryce Florie, Middle reliever, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Det  4.20  27 27   8  8  0  163 162 15  70 118  .263  .745
Prorated   Det  4.20   9  9   3  3  0   54  54  5  23  39  .263  .745
Actual     Det  4.56  27  3   2  1  0   51  61  6  20  40  .292  .776

Prorated   Bos  4.20   5  5   2  2  0   31  31  3  13  23  .263  .745
Actual     Bos  4.80  14  2   2  0  0   30  33  2  15  25  .282  .733

Prorated   Tot  4.20  14 14   4  4  0   85  85  8  37  62  .263  .745
Actual     Tot  4.65  41  5   4  1  0   81  94  8  35  65  .288  .761

Florie has bounced around since his rookie season in 1994, showing enough potential to interest several teams, but not quite delivering enough to keep him in one place for more than a couple of years. He's allowed less than a hit per inning for his career and he's struck out 7.3 hitters per nine innings as a long reliever and occasional starter, but his control has occasionally been a problem. In the past two years, he's thrown more strikes but given up more hits, the net result being another couple of years of league-average performance.

Rich Garces, Middle reliever, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  3.63  11  0   1  1  0   17  15  2  10  16  .234  .717
Prorated   Bos  3.63  23  0   2  2  0   37  32  4  21  34  .234  .717
Actual     Bos  1.55  30  0   5  1  2   41  25  1  18  33  .171  .495

Garces is a fan favorite, perhaps because many Fenway patrons can identify with the large, round body that Garces trots out to the mound. But even though he doesn't have the most athletic build, there's no denying his effectiveness. He spent a chunk of the year in AAA, but was brilliant down the stretch after he was called up.

Mark Guthrie, Middle reliever, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  4.94  70  0   5  5  1   93 109 11  43  66  .295  .816
Prorated   Bos  4.94  35  0   2  2  0   46  54  5  21  33  .295  .816
Actual     Bos  5.83  46  0   1  1  2   46  50  9  20  36  .275  .859

Prorated   ChN  4.94   8  0   1  1  0   10  12  1   5   7  .295  .816
Actual     ChN  3.65  11  0   0  2  0   12   7  1   4   9  .171  .537

Prorated   Tot  4.94  42  0   3  3  1   56  66  7  26  40  .295  .816
Actual     Tot  5.37  57  0   1  3  2   59  57 10  24  45  .256  .800

Guthrie had a strong spring and seemed unhittable in the first couple of weeks of the season. Then he lost it, for no apparent reason, and couldn't get anyone out for a while. With the emergence of Rheal Cormier as the top lefty out of the pen, the Sox decided to ship Guthrie to the Cubs (along with Cole Liniak) in the Rod Beck deal.

Derek Lowe, Setup man/closer, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  4.29  70  0   5  5  2   99 105  8  32  60  .277  .734
Prorated   Bos  4.29  73  0   5  5  2  102 109  8  33  62  .277  .734
Actual     Bos  2.63  74  0   6  3 15  109  84  7  25  80  .208  .572

You could make a good case for Lowe as one of the 10-15 most valuable pitchers in the AL last year. He excelled as Tom Gordon's setup man early on, but struggled for a while when given the closer job after Gordon's elbow gave out. So the club moved him back to the setup role (with Wakefield getting the save opportunities), where he quickly regained his form. That earned him another shot as the closer, and he was very successful the second time around.

It was obvious that Jimy Williams had more faith in Lowe than any other Sox reliever in the post-season. Whenever it seemed that the game was on the line, whether that was the second inning or the seventh or the ninth, Lowe was the first guy he'd turn to.

So far, it appears that Lowe can handle what stands out as a very heavy workload for a 1990s relief pitcher. There's some talk that Lowe might be moved into the rotation next year, but Sox pitching coach Joe Kerrigan likes being able to use Lowe 60-70 times a year in key situations, so he may remain in the setup/closer role.

Rod Beck, Setup man/closer, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection ChN  3.79  70  0   2  7 27   76  78 11  15  66  .265  .732
Prorated   ChN  3.79  31  0   1  3 12   34  35  5   7  30  .265  .732
Actual     ChN  7.80  31  0   2  4  7   30  41  5  13  13  .331  .969

Prorated   Bos  3.79  12  0   0  1  5   13  14  2   3  12  .265  .732
Actual     Bos  1.93  12  0   0  1  3   14   9  0   5  12  .184  .497

Prorated   Tot  3.79  44  0   1  4 17   47  49  7   9  41  .265  .732
Actual     Tot  5.93  43  0   2  5 10   44  50  5  18  25  .289  .835

He's been one of the guttiest closers in the game for a long time, always willing to go out there as often and for as long as his manager asks him to, and always wanting the ball with the game or the season on the line. He's never been as dominant as the Riveras, Percivals, Hoffmans, and Wagners of the world, but he's converted 85% of his save opportunities in his nine-year career. Judging by his looks and how long he's been around, I would have sworn he was five years older than he really is.

This past season was pretty much a lost cause. He was horrible in the early going, then went on the DL for two months after having surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow. When Tom Gordon was apparently lost for the season, the Red Sox picked him up for the stretch drive, seeking bullpen depth and hoping Beck might return to peak form for the playoffs. He clearly didn't have his best stuff, but he managed to baffle hitters enough to look good in September. It didn't last, though, as he couldn't get anyone out in the post-season.

Tom Gordon, Closer, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Bos  3.12  70  0   5  5 33   75  67  5  32  64  .241  .676
Prorated   Bos  3.12  18  0   1  1  9   20  17  1   8  17  .241  .676
Actual     Bos  5.60  21  0   0  2 11   18  17  2  12  24  .246  .757

I don't think anyone expected Gordon to match his stellar performance of 1998, when he converted 45 of 46 save opportunities and set a record for consecutive saves. But he came to training camp with a sore elbow, then went through periods of rest and trying to pitch through it before his season was declared over in June. The team doctor recommended elbow surgery, but Gordon fought with the team over his right to get another opinion, and once again gave the elbow a prolonged rest. He surprised everyone by coming back in late September, but he couldn't throw his curve ball, and he didn't see action in the post-season.

Unfortunately, it took mediation to get the sides together. Gordon was permitted to see other specialists, and the consensus was that surgery was needed, though there remained some disagreement about how drastic a procedure was needed. The surgery was performed yesterday, and it turned out that he needed full-blown tendon transplant surgery, the so-called Tommy John procedure that keeps a pitcher out for more than a year. By the time he's able to pick up a ball again, he'll be into the option year in his contract. Given the tense relationship between club and player, there's a very good chance that Gordon has thrown his last pitch in a Red Sox uniform.

Outlook

I'm not sure how to view the prospects for the Red Sox offense in 2000. On the plus side, several younger players stepped up in 1999, and if this represents a real, sustained improvement, it's a very good sign. On the other hand, they were only 9th in scoring despite a great year from Nomar and a majority of their key hitters performing above expectations. If a few players sink back to their previous levels, they'll have a lot of trouble scoring runs.

The pitching staff could be awesome or quite shaky, depending on the health of several key players. Gordon is out for the year, but a healthy Beck could combine with Lowe and Cormier to form the backbone of a very good bullpen. If Saberhagen comes back strong for the second half, he'd join the Martinez brothers to form a formidable starting corps that would scare anyone in a playoff series. And if some of the kids (Rose, Cho, Ohka, Pena) continue to develop, the staff could be very deep. That's an awful lot of ifs, but if a few of them go the Sox way, they'll have at least a competitive pitching staff again in 2000.

Still, when you're trying to catch the Yankees, who have won the Series three of the past four years and can afford to carry guys with $2 million salaries just to be role players off the bench, it's awfully hard to compete for the division title. It's safe to say that the Sox have benefited more from the addition of the wildcard than any other team, and (along with the Mets) seem most likely to need the wildcard to make the post-season in the future.

Copyright © 1999. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.