Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Cincinnati Reds Written By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the Cincinnati Reds did in the 1999 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 768 865 Runs allowed 730 711 Run Margin 38 154 Wins 85 96 Pythagorean wins 85 97 Placement 3rd 2nd We had expected the Reds to be the surprise team of 1998, figuring them for about 88 wins and a division title. Shortly after we made this projection, however, the Reds traded Dave Burba, their top pitcher, to the Indians for rookie first baseman Sean Casey. While rebuilding for the future didn't sit too well with some players, especially Barry Larkin (who asked to be traded that summer), that deal helped set the stage for a very successful 1999. GM Jim Bowden and company had a very busy winter prior to the 1999 season. They traded Bret Boone and Mike Remlinger to the Braves for Denny Neagle, Michael Tucker and a minor league pitcher. They swapped disappointing young players with the White Sox, sending Paul Konerko to Chicago for Mike Cameron. They picked up Greg Vaughn, coming off of a 50 home run campaign, and Mark Sweeney from San Diego in exchange for Reggie Sanders, Damian Jackson and a prospect. In many ways, however, their success came in spite of these deals. Remlinger was great in middle relief for Atlanta while Neagle missed a large chunk of the season; Cameron played well in Cincinnati, but Konerko was even better in Chicago; and while Vaughn hit 45 home runs for the Reds, Reggie Sanders played just as well for the Padres. More than these trades, it was the rapid development of some of their young players, especially Sean Casey, Scott Williamson, Pokey Reese and Aaron Boone, that put Cincinnati in the thick of the pennant race. Of all the deals they made over the winter, the one Jim Bowden should regret the most had nothing to do with his players. Over the winter, the Reds "traded" a three-game series at home with the White Sox to the Cubs for three games with the Indians. Despite the fact that Cleveland was a much stronger opponent, the Reds rightly figured that their cross-state rivals would draw more fans into Riverfront Stadium than the weaker White Sox. Manager Jack McKeon wasn't too thrilled with the move. "What happens if we lose a wild-card spot by two or three games if Cleveland beats up on us?" The Indians ended up sweeping the Reds that weekend in June and I wonder how many people in the front office were pleased with the results of that maneuver when they ended in a tie with the Mets for the wild-card spot. Key Position PlayersBetter than anticipated seasons from several players, including Eddie Taubensee, Dmitri Young, Mike Cameron, Jeffrey Hammonds as well as the ones mentioned above, resulted in the Reds scoring nearly a hundred more than runs than projected. More than half of this increase was due to an across the board upswing in offense in the NL last season, as the average team scored 65 more runs than in 1998. Eddie Taubensee, c, age 30 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 378 103 25 0 11 49 58 0 36 5 86 1 1 .272 .332 .426 .758 56 Prorated Cin 414 113 27 0 12 53 63 0 39 5 94 1 1 .273 .332 .425 .757 61 Actual Cin 424 132 22 2 21 58 87 1 30 1 67 0 2 .311 .354 .521 .876 75 Taubensee was angry when the Reds went out and signed free agent catcher Brian Johnson before the season began. He had wrist surgery in January and got off to a slow start, but hit .395 with 7 homers and 23 RBIs after September 3rd to finish with career highs in HRs, RBIs and AVG. It was reported in Baseball Weekly that Taubensee became the first Reds catcher to hit .300 since Ed Bailey in 1956 (ignoring the .309 average Joe Nolan put up in the strike-shortened 1981). If that seems like a long time, ask White Sox fans when one of their regular catchers last topped .300. The first and only time that happened was in 1930 when Bennie Tate (yes, THAT Bennie Tate) hit .317. Brian Johnson, c, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 192 45 7 1 7 19 23 2 13 3 33 0 0 .234 .287 .391 .678 21 Prorated Cin 115 27 4 0 4 11 13 1 7 1 19 0 0 .235 .282 .374 .656 12 Actual Cin 117 27 7 0 5 12 18 0 9 0 31 0 0 .231 .286 .419 .705 14 Johnson came over from the Giants in the off-season, missed a month and a half in the middle of the year with a knee injury, and was released after the season. Sean Casey, 1b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 598 178 48 1 16 88 112 8 68 6 83 1 2 .298 .375 .462 .836 104 Prorated Cin 590 175 47 0 15 86 110 7 67 5 81 0 1 .297 .373 .453 .826 101 Actual Cin 594 197 42 3 25 103 99 9 61 13 88 0 2 .332 .399 .539 .938 126 Casey's outstanding minor-league numbers indicated that he'd have a lot of success in the majors too, but his power and batting average were still a pleasant surprise. He led the NL in hitting for much of the first half of the season, but seemed to wear down a little over the second half. Still, he hit about what we'd projected (8 home runs, a .369 on-base and a .442 slugging percentage) after the All-Star break, so it was a slump only when compared to what he had done during the first three months. Pokey Reese, 2b/ss, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 605 136 20 2 8 75 52 5 49 3 117 25 9 .225 .287 .304 .591 55 Prorated Cin 575 129 19 1 7 71 49 4 46 2 111 23 8 .224 .285 .297 .583 51 Actual Cin 585 167 37 5 10 85 52 6 35 3 81 38 7 .285 .330 .417 .747 84 Pokey Reese moved to second base following the trade of Bret Boone and was one of the big reasons for the Reds contending in the NL Central. He duplicated Boone's feat of the year before by winning the Gold Glove award at second base. The last time a team had different players capture consecutive Gold Glove awards at the same position was in 1963 and 1964 when Philly shortstops Bobby Wine and Ruben Amaro won the award. His top batting average and slugging percentage in the minors was .269 and .407, so it will be interesting to see if he can duplicate his 1999 success next year. [TT: Boone won the Gold Glove in 1998 primarily based on reputation and good hands, as he made only two errors in 1997 and nine in 1998. But Boone's range is quite ordinary. In contrast, Reese's range and fielding percentage were both outstanding, so the Reds gained a lot of defense at second last year.] Chris Stynes, 2b/3b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 113 30 5 0 2 16 12 1 6 0 9 4 1 .265 .306 .363 .669 13 Prorated Cin 119 31 5 0 2 16 12 1 6 0 9 4 1 .261 .299 .353 .652 13 Actual Cin 113 27 1 0 2 18 14 0 12 1 13 5 2 .239 .310 .301 .610 11 It seems like an awfully long time since Stynes hit .348 in the last seven weeks of 1997. He was a reserve infielder last year and didn't hit at all until late July, starting the season by going 4-46 with no extra base hits. Barry Larkin, ss, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 569 168 35 9 20 98 72 4 85 7 66 28 5 .295 .388 .494 .882 115 Prorated Cin 587 173 36 9 20 101 74 4 87 7 68 28 5 .295 .387 .489 .876 117 Actual Cin 583 171 30 4 12 108 75 2 93 5 57 30 8 .293 .390 .420 .810 103 After demanding to be sent to a contender in 1998, Barry Larkin had a contender come to him last year. With the exception of a lower-than-anticipated home run total (caused by a 72-game homerless spell in the middle of the year), Larkin did as expected last year. He had a very slow start at the beginning of the year but more than made up for that by hitting over .430 from May 24th to the end of June. Larkin's knees bothered him for much of the year, but he managed to stay in the lineup all year and play in a career-high 161 games. He has spent time on the DL in half of his 14 seasons and all those injuries might eventually cost him a spot in the Hall of Fame. Aaron Boone, 3b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 548 132 32 3 13 76 71 8 34 3 95 17 5 .241 .292 .381 .673 62 Prorated Cin 475 114 27 2 11 65 61 6 29 2 82 14 4 .240 .289 .375 .664 52 Actual Cin 472 132 26 5 14 56 72 8 30 2 79 17 6 .280 .330 .445 .775 71 Coming off a somewhat disappointing season in 1998, Aaron Boone got off to a slow start last year and found himself in the minors by the middle of May. He was recalled two weeks later and hit well the rest of the way, ending up very close to what we had projected for him back in 1998. Mark Lewis, 3b, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 69 16 3 0 1 7 7 0 5 0 13 0 0 .232 .280 .319 .599 6 Prorated Cin 169 39 7 0 2 17 17 0 12 0 31 0 0 .231 .279 .308 .586 14 Actual Cin 173 44 16 0 6 18 28 0 7 1 24 0 0 .254 .280 .451 .731 19 Lewis was signed as a free agent after playing second base regularly for the Phillies the previous year. Boone's slow start got him more playing time than anticipated and while he was in the lineup, Lewis showed surprising power. The Reds were his sixth team in as many years. Greg Vaughn, lf, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 526 130 25 3 37 98 104 4 79 5 120 9 4 .247 .347 .517 .865 99 Prorated Cin 551 136 26 3 38 102 109 4 82 5 125 9 4 .247 .346 .512 .858 102 Actual Cin 550 135 20 2 45 104 118 3 85 3 137 15 2 .245 .347 .535 .881 108 Prior to this season, Vaughn had been very inconsistent, with awful seasons in 1995 and 1997, and fine years in 1996 and 1998. Our projection system doesn't take a player's inconsistency into account, and that's probably a good thing because Vaughn put together the first back-to-back big years of his career and, except for slightly more power and the best stolen base percentage of his career, his 1999 performance was right in line with our projections. A free agent after the season, Vaughn put together one of the greatest salary drives of all-time last year, hitting 16 home runs in his last 30 games. In the process, he won the NL's Player of the Month award for September and raised his price on the free-agent market considerably. He'll be playing in Tampa Bay in 2000. Mike Cameron, cf, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 514 116 24 7 15 77 62 9 59 1 136 32 10 .226 .313 .387 .701 67 Prorated Cin 555 125 25 7 16 83 66 9 63 1 146 34 10 .225 .312 .382 .694 71 Actual Cin 542 139 34 9 21 93 66 6 80 2 145 38 12 .256 .357 .469 .825 99 Mike Cameron took a major step forward in 1999, bouncing back nicely after an awful season the year before. He does a lot of things well to make up for a pretty mediocre batting average, but he'll have to continue to improve to keep pace with Paul Konerko, the man the Reds gave up to get him. [TT: On the other hand, Konerko is an average-at-best defensive 1B while Cameron is one of the best defensive CFs in the game. His defensive contributions will go a long way toward making this a good deal for the Reds as long as Cameron can continue to hit as well as he did in 1999.] Dmitri Young, rf/lf/1b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 558 165 42 3 14 83 80 2 49 5 96 5 6 .296 .352 .457 .809 87 Prorated Cin 371 109 27 1 9 55 53 1 32 3 63 3 3 .294 .349 .445 .794 56 Actual Cin 373 112 30 2 14 63 56 2 30 1 71 3 1 .300 .352 .504 .856 65 Young was one of the first players ever traded by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, going to the Reds as the player to be named in the Mike Kelly deal. He left Tampa Bay on the same day that Bobby Abreu headed to Philadelphia for Kevin Stocker. These two deals probably go a long way to explaining why Tampa Bay has traded so infrequently since. Young had a break-through season in 1998, but a slow start cut into his playing time last year. On July 1st, he was hitting only .217 with 2 HRs and 10 RBIs. He was on fire the rest of the way, regaining his job along the way and showing that his previous success hadn't been a fluke after all. Michael Tucker, rf/cf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 67 16 4 0 2 10 8 1 7 1 17 1 1 .239 .320 .388 .708 8 Prorated Cin 303 72 18 0 9 45 36 4 31 4 77 4 4 .238 .317 .386 .703 37 Actual Cin 296 75 8 5 11 55 44 3 37 3 81 11 4 .253 .338 .426 .764 45 Tucker came to the Reds in the Denny Neagle trade and it appeared he'd be stuck behind Vaughn and Young in his new home. It's funny the difference a year or two can make: after the 1997 season the Braves seemed to have gotten the better of the Jermaine Dye for Tucker swap. That trade looks like a steal for the Royals now. There were rumors during the season that Tucker might be heading back to Kansas City for a pitcher. Jeffrey Hammonds, rf/lf/cf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Cin 66 18 4 1 2 11 9 1 7 0 13 2 1 .273 .347 .455 .801 11 Prorated Cin 257 70 15 3 7 42 35 3 27 0 50 7 3 .272 .345 .436 .781 40 Actual Cin 262 73 13 0 17 43 41 1 27 0 64 3 6 .279 .347 .523 .870 46 Picked up in a mid-season deal with the Orioles the year before, Hammonds waited a long time (126 at-bats) to hit his first home run for the Reds. Like Tucker, we figured he'd spent much of 1999 watching from the dugout. By May 18th, he was hitting only .132 (5-38) with no home runs. He was in the starting line-up the next day and, perhaps more importantly, in Coors Field. He ended that day with his first three home runs as a Red and ended the season with the best power numbers of his career. Key PitchersThe Reds allowed 19 fewer runs than expected last year, a feat that seems more impressive when you consider that of the five pitchers they counted on to make up their starting rotation at the end of spring training, three would spend large portions of the year on the DL and one other would get sent to the minors in May. A fine season by Steve Parris and the acquisition of Juan Guzman helped, but the Reds' pitching staff was saved last year by their relief corps. Three of their relievers, Graves, Williamson and Sullivan, ranked first, second and fifth in the league in innings pitched among relievers and their combined ERA was a sparkling 2.85. Denny Neagle, starter, age 30 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 3.61 27 27 11 9 0 185 171 20 44 137 .246 .688 Prorated Cin 3.61 17 17 7 6 0 114 106 12 27 85 .246 .688 Actual Cin 4.27 20 19 9 5 0 112 95 23 40 76 .229 .769 Neagle's career in Cincinnati couldn't have started out worse. He began the season on the disabled list with shoulder stiffness. When he joined the team on April 21st, he was awful. A month later, he took his 0-3 record and 8.17 ERA back to the DL. This time he was out ten weeks with a weakness of the rotator cuff. Things started looking up when he returned and he finished on a hot streak, winning the NL Pitcher of the Month award for September with a 5-0 record and a 2.00 ERA. Pete Harnisch, starter, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 4.34 32 32 11 11 0 197 191 29 63 140 .254 .754 Prorated Cin 4.34 32 32 11 11 0 197 191 29 63 140 .254 .754 Actual Cin 3.68 33 33 16 10 0 198 190 25 57 120 .252 .727 Who needs Spring Training? Harnisch couldn't get anyone out in Florida, heading north with an no wins, three losses and a 9.14 ERA. So what did he do in his first start of the regular season? He threw a six-hit shutout of course. For the first time in his career, Harnisch was able to stay healthy and effective for two years in a row. He pitched in pain for much of the year due to a partial tear in his rotator cuff, so it might not be realistic to expect a third straight fine campaign in 2000. Steve Avery, starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 4.78 27 27 7 10 0 147 154 17 69 78 .272 .784 Prorated Cin 4.78 18 18 5 7 0 97 101 11 45 51 .272 .784 Actual Cin 5.16 19 19 6 7 0 96 75 11 78 51 .222 .740 It's hard to believe that Avery won't turn 30 until next March 14th. Last year was his tenth major league season, and it's been ages since he was considered one of the best young pitchers in the NL. The Reds signed him as a free agent prior to the year and he pitched very well for a while. On May 23rd, his record was even at 3-3, but his ERA was an excellent 2.61. He would fail to get through the third inning in three of his next four starts, however, and from then on it was a pretty steady downhill ride until his season ended in late July with a strained shoulder. He was harder to hit than expected, but simply could not find the plate in 1999 as he set a career high in walks despite pitching less than 100 innings. Brett Tomko, starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 3.77 32 32 11 11 0 200 186 23 58 161 .246 .707 Prorated Cin 3.77 29 29 10 10 0 179 166 21 52 144 .246 .707 Actual Cin 4.92 33 26 5 7 0 172 175 31 60 132 .263 .813 Tomko was brutal in the early going and was sent to the minor leagues by the end of April. At the time, he was winless in five starts with a 7.76 ERA. He was recalled two weeks later but was relegated to the bullpen in late August and given just one more start the rest of the way. He was very effective in his limited relief duty, allowing only 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. Jason Bere, starter, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 5.09 32 32 9 11 0 168 173 23 99 125 .266 .805 Prorated Cin 5.09 9 9 3 3 0 48 50 7 28 36 .266 .805 Actual Cin 6.85 12 10 3 0 0 43 56 6 40 28 .326 .979 Prorated Mil 5.09 4 4 1 1 0 22 23 3 13 17 .266 .805 Actual Mil 4.63 5 4 2 0 0 23 23 3 10 19 .256 .727 Prorated Tot 5.09 13 13 4 5 0 70 73 10 42 52 .266 .805 Actual Tot 6.08 17 14 5 0 0 67 79 9 50 47 .302 .895 Another reclamation project, Bere struggled with his control before being dropped from the rotation and going to the disabled list in June with elbow inflammation. He came off the DL in early August and was promptly released. Steve Parris, starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 4.41 28 5 4 5 0 80 80 10 27 70 .263 .753 Prorated Cin 4.41 45 8 6 8 0 129 129 16 44 113 .263 .753 Actual Cin 3.50 22 21 11 4 0 129 124 16 52 86 .260 .764 Parris was the odd man out at the end of Spring Training and began the season in the minor leagues. He was recalled at the beginning of May after Tomko was sent down and, with the exception of a stint on the DL in August with shoulder problems, remained with the Reds the rest of the season. Despite an ERA almost a run less than anticipated, he actually allowed more base runners than expected. Ron Villone, starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 4.32 13 0 1 1 0 17 17 2 12 14 .270 .786 Prorated Cin 4.32 102 0 8 8 0 130 133 16 94 109 .270 .786 Actual Cin 4.23 29 22 9 7 2 143 114 8 73 97 .219 .656 A reliever his entire career, Ron Villone was expected to serve briefly in that capacity for the Reds last year. He started the year in the minors before being recalled in the middle of May. He was fantastic in relief the rest of the month (4 hits and no runs in 13 1/3 innings) and that got him moved into the starting rotation at the beginning of June to replace Denny Neagle. It would be an understatement to say that Villone was inconsistent in his new role. From June 14th to 30th, he allowed only a single hit in three of his four starts. In the other, he allowed six earned runs and got only one man out. A week later, he would follow up two awful starts with a brilliant one (eight innings pitched, one hit allowed). This tendency to allow his hits in clusters might explain why his ERA came so close to his projected rate when all of the other indicators (hits, home runs and walks allowed) were so much better than expected. Juan Guzman, starter, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Bal 4.07 32 32 13 10 0 210 189 28 92 170 .241 .733 Prorated Bal 4.07 19 19 8 6 0 128 115 17 56 103 .241 .733 Actual Bal 4.18 21 21 5 9 0 123 124 18 65 95 .265 .796 Prorated Cin 4.07 11 11 5 4 0 75 68 10 33 61 .241 .733 Actual Cin 3.03 12 12 6 3 0 77 70 10 21 60 .238 .675 Prorated Tot 4.07 31 31 13 10 0 203 182 27 89 164 .241 .733 Actual Tot 3.74 33 33 11 12 0 200 194 28 86 155 .255 .750 The Reds gave pitching prospect B.J. Ryan to the Orioles for what may turn out to be two months of Juan Guzman's services. He pitched fine while in Cincinnati, but he's a free agent and is unlikely to return. Scott Sullivan, long reliever, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 3.52 40 0 4 3 0 72 65 9 22 62 .242 .710 Prorated Cin 3.52 63 0 6 5 0 112 102 14 34 97 .242 .710 Actual Cin 3.01 79 0 5 4 3 114 88 10 47 78 .217 .655 He rebounded from a poor 1998 and joined a number of Red relievers by having the best year of his career. He has thrown a lot of innings in relief the last three years (leading all NL relievers in 1999) and at some point the workload might catch up with him. Dennys Reyes, middle reliever, age 22Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 4.23 53 0 4 4 0 72 70 6 38 73 .255 .735 Prorated Cin 4.23 46 0 3 3 0 63 61 5 33 64 .255 .735 Actual Cin 3.79 65 1 2 2 2 62 53 5 39 72 .232 .690 Another in a series of talented young Reds relievers, Reyes came to Cincinnati along with Paul Konerko in the Jeff Shaw deal. He pitched primarily as a starter in the minors (with excellent numbers at AAA in 1998) before pitching somewhat better than anticipated out of the bullpen last season. His control can be a problem and he faded badly down the stretch (a 1.72 ERA before the All-Star break and a 6.84 ERA after), but both of these are not uncommon in a pitcher as young as Reyes. Gabe White, middle reliever, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 4.09 70 0 5 5 1 101 100 15 20 71 .257 .729 Prorated Cin 4.09 44 0 3 3 1 63 62 9 12 44 .257 .729 Actual Cin 4.43 50 0 1 2 0 61 68 13 14 61 .281 .820 He started slowly while everyone else on the staff seemed to be hot and saw less work than expected as a result. The long-ball continues to be a problem for him. Stan Belinda, middle reliever, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 3.11 53 0 5 2 0 75 64 9 28 78 .229 .698 Prorated Cin 3.11 31 0 3 1 0 44 37 5 16 45 .229 .698 Actual Cin 5.27 29 0 3 1 2 43 42 11 18 40 .258 .843 Belinda was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis in 1998 but elbow problems seemed to be at the root of his difficulties last season. He was on the disabled list until late June and never seemed to get on track. He was traded to the Rockies after the season, which couldn't be good news to him. Danny Graves, closer, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 3.79 70 0 5 3 28 74 77 5 27 41 .273 .729 Prorated Cin 3.79 101 0 7 4 40 106 111 7 39 59 .273 .729 Actual Cin 3.08 75 0 8 7 27 111 90 10 49 69 .227 .673 By the end of 1998, Graves had won the closer's role on the club following the departure of Jeff Shaw. A combination of a slow start and Williamson's torrid pitching caused him to share the role through much of the year. He pitched very well after the All-Star break to finish with his best season of his short career. Scott Williamson, closer, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Cin 4.87 30 0 2 3 0 41 42 4 20 41 .268 .766 Prorated Cin 4.87 61 0 4 6 0 83 85 8 41 83 .268 .766 Actual Cin 2.41 62 0 12 7 19 93 54 8 43 107 .171 .564 Despite a fastball in the high 90s and a good slider, Williamson was not expected to begin the season with the Reds. A fine spring and an injury to Belinda got Williamson, a starter in the minors, a job in the Reds bullpen. He took a month to get used to big league hitters and then went five weeks without allowing a run. In May and June, he gave up only 17 hits in 39 1/3 innings. He suffered from shoulder tendinitis as well as a badly cut finger the last month of the season. Although his ERA rose nearly 60 points in his last four appearances, he still easily won the NL's Rookie of the Year award. There has been some talk of moving him into the starting rotation in the future. OutlookThe Reds began this off-season facing the loss of Greg Vaughn (to Tampa as a free agent) and the probable loss of Juan Guzman, two key performers down the stretch. To replace Vaughn, the Reds sent Jeffrey Hammonds, Stan Belinda and cash to the Rockies for Dante Bichette. And cash? Bichette is 36 and it remains to be seen if he can hit outside of Coors Field. He's actually hit much worse on the road than Hammonds over the last five years, but Hammonds is a platoon player and Bichette actually had pretty decent road numbers (14 HRs, .297 AVG and .502 SPC) in 1999. Still, he's certainly not going to be an improvement on Vaughn and the Reds will miss Hammonds's bat. The other big news on offense was the possibility of the Reds picking up Ken Griffey Jr. It now looks as though the deal is dead, due to the reluctance of the Cincinnati front office to include Pokey Reese in any deal. In addition to replacing Vaughn's runs in the lineup, the other big question mark for the Reds next year will be their starting rotation. Neagle finished strongly and should be fine, but Harnisch pitched in pain much of the year and must be considered a question mark for 2000. Parris and Villone should also return to the rotation, but it's unclear where they'll find a fifth starter. There are a lot of live, young arms in the bullpen and I wouldn't be surprised to see one or more of them move into the rotation. Projections and text: Copyright © 1999. Diamond Mind,
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