1999 Post-Season Review -- Cleveland Indians

By Tom Tippett
December 28, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Cleveland Indians did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                   Projected  Actual
Runs for              907      1009
Runs allowed          766       860
Run Margin           +141      +149
Wins                   93        97
Pythagorean wins       95        94
Placement             1st       1st

There are very few sure things in baseball, but these days, the Indians locking up the AL Central title by the trade deadline -- well, that's an exaggeration, but not by much -- is one of them. It wasn't all that long ago that the Indians were the perennial doormats of the league, and now they show up for spring training knowing that there won't be an empty seat all summer and that they'll be playing in October.

[Quick aside: it's been reported that MLB is looking seriously at contraction. When this item first showed up in the news a few months ago, my friend Rob Neyer made the very telling observation that if contraction had taken place ten years ago, Cleveland and Atlanta might well have been the two teams chosen for extinction. Just a friendly reminder that there's a lot more to the question than just big-market/small-market, and quality of management is one missing piece that doesn't get talked about nearly enough.]

Our pre-season computer simulations had the Indians with 93 wins on the strength of an offense that was expected to trail only the Yankees in runs scored and a pitching staff that was also expected to finish second behind New York. But it didn't quite go that way. The wins and run margin were in line with the projections, but the offense was far better (despite several important injuries) and the pitching much worse.

That performance was more than enough to cruise to a division title, but not enough to get the Tribe past the Red Sox in the divisional series. I don't think it would be fair to say that losing to Boston was an upset, as the two teams were pretty evenly matched. But when Pedro Martinez left game one with a pulled muscle in his back and Cleveland went on to win the first two games, there seemed to be no doubt about the outcome. But game three turned when Dave Burba left with his own injury, and the Cleveland pitching staff displayed the biggest collective meltdown in post-season history, allowing 40 runs in a span of 16 innings, including one stretch of 27 runs in 27 outs.

That meltdown cost manager Mike Hargrove his job, though it's hard to argue that he did a poor job in Cleveland. In 1998-99, his teams won a few more games than they were projected to win, despite a number of injuries to key players. And they lost to a couple of very good teams in the post-season. You can question whether he did the right thing by coming back with Bartolo Colon for game four of the Red Sox series, but Hargrove wasn't the one serving up all those meatballs to a very ordinary Boston batting order. At some point, you have to assign some of the responsibility to the players who failed to get the job done. But those players will be back in 2000, while Hargrove gets the added challenge of showing that he can win in a much tougher division and with less talent as the Baltimore manager.

Key Position Players

When Hargrove announced in March that he wanted to go with a lineup of Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel, and Roberto Alomar in the first three spots, I thought he was batty. Why on earth would you put Vizquel in the #2 spot and push all of your really good hitters one spot further down in the order? All that would do is take 15-20 atbats per season away from Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Dave Justice and Wil Cordero and give them to Vizquel.

Well, I guess he knew something I didn't, because Vizquel hit .333 and reached base just a hair under 40% of the time, and the Indians became the first team since the 1950 Red Sox to score over 1000 runs in a season. (That Red Sox team did it in 154 games and without the DH, of course.) Remarkably, the runs kept coming even though they lost Lofton, Travis Fryman, Sandy Alomar, and Wil Cordero to injury for long stretches, mainly because Vizquel, Roberto Alomar and Manny Ramirez had very big years and nobody had a bad one.

Sandy Alomar, c, age 33 (as of July 1, 1999)

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 481 126 33  1 13  57  64  3  19  1  51  0  1  .262  .292  .416  .708  53
Prorated   Cle 135  35  9  0  3  16  18  0   5  0  14  0  0  .259  .286  .393  .678  13
Actual     Cle 137  42 13  0  6  19  25  0   4  0  23  0  1  .307  .322  .533  .855  23

Alomar was coming off a very poor 1998 season that saw his average sink to .235 and his power disappear. He got off to a much better start this year, then missed a few April games with back spasms and was forced to take the summer off after having bone spurs removed from his knee in mid-May. He hit just as well after his return, so there's reason for optimism going into 2000.

Einar Diaz, c, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle  90  24  5  0  1  11  11  2   2  0   7  0  1  .267  .295  .356  .650   9
Prorated   Cle 404 107 22  0  4  49  49  8   8  0  31  0  4  .265  .290  .349  .639  38
Actual     Cle 392 110 21  1  3  43  32  5  23  0  41 11  4  .281  .328  .362  .690  46

Although he didn't hit for power, Diaz did enough other things well to be a pleasant surprise. His defense was quite good, as he handled himself well around the plate and threw out 35% of enemy base stealers. And he was a little more effective at the plate and on the bases than you'd expect from his minor-league record.

Jim Thome, 1b/dh, age 28

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 532 150 34  2 37 110 105  4 115 10 164  1  0  .282  .410  .562  .972 130
Prorated   Cle 510 143 32  1 35 105 100  3 110  9 157  0  0  .280  .408  .553  .961 122
Actual     Cle 494 137 27  2 33 101 108  4 127 13 171  0  0  .277  .426  .540  .967 125

Defensively, Thome has held his own at first base for the past two years after being a defensive liability at third base early in his career. He's always been an asset at the plate, despite the strikeouts, with a powerful run-creating combo of a .400+ on-base percentage and plenty of long balls.

Richie Sexson, 1b/lf/dh, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 182  48 11  0  9  26  35  2  12  1  38  1  1  .264  .313  .473  .786  26
Prorated   Cle 482 127 29  0 23  68  92  5  31  2 100  2  2  .263  .312  .467  .778  67
Actual     Cle 479 122 17  7 31  72 116  4  34  0 117  3  3  .255  .305  .514  .818  69

Before the season, it didn't look as if there was any place for Sexson to play. Opportunities were created by injuries to Cordero and Justice, and Sexson made the most of them, finishing 7th in the majors in the ratio of RBI to atbats. He's a poor outfielder, and Thome has first base locked up, so it looks as if he might have to DH for the time being.

Roberto Alomar, 2b, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 613 186 42  2 15  98  71  2  66  4  70 16  5  .303  .369  .452  .821 105
Prorated   Cle 613 186 42  2 15  98  71  2  66  4  70 16  5  .303  .369  .452  .821 105
Actual     Cle 563 182 40  3 24 138 120  7  99  3  96 37  6  .323  .422  .533  .955 139

After a lethargic 1998 season in Baltimore, Alomar returned to form when he was reunited with his big brother, setting career highs in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, homers, runs, RBI, and walks.

The baseball media has annointed Alomar as the best defensive second baseman of all time, while Bill James wrote that he is "overrated as a defensive player" in his 1995 player ratings book. Which is it? Well, here are the career fielding stats of a few second basemen, all of whom appeared in over 1000 games at second, with their stats normalized to 1000 games to make it a little easier to compare them. See if you can pick Alomar out of this list:

             Games    PO     A    E     TC   FPct  Range
  Player A    1000  1978  2887   82   4947   .983   4.95
  Player B    1000  2033  3035   62   5130   .988   5.13
  Player C    1000  2133  2856   80   5069   .984   5.07
  Player D    1000  2103  2981   60   5144   .988   5.14
  Player E    1000  2257  2944  109   5310   .980   5.31
  Player F    1000  2375  3192   97   5664   .983   5.66
  Player G    1000  2204  2905   83   5192   .984   5.19
  Player H    1000  1908  3189   55   5152   .989   5.15

Alomar is player A. The others (in order) are Jody Reed, Craig Biggio, Jose Lind, Willie Randolph, Bill Mazeroski, Frank White, and Ryne Sandberg. And the interesting thing is that I didn't have to look all that hard to find players with better stats than Alomar. In fact, these are the first seven guys who came to mind.

Many of you know that I've written elsewhere about how misleading these traditional fielding stats can be, mainly because they can be significantly biased by the strikeout rate, left/right mix, and groundball/flyball nature of a pitching staff. So I'm not presenting this table as conclusive proof of anything. But it does raise questions about the Alomar hype, because we're forced to come to one of two conclusions. Either (a) Alomar is truly the best defensive 2B of all time but his stats have been artificially depressed by external factors, or (b) over a span of 12 years, these external factors have mostly averaged out, and Alomar hasn't been making as many plays as the media would have us believe.

I believe Alomar is somewhat overrated, despite the fact that he looks graceful and athletic and sometimes spectacular. But you know what? Even if he's merely very good defensively, and not one of the best ever, I want him on my team because he's still one of the best all-around players who has ever played the position. He hits for average, walks a lot, bunts very well, steals bases, has plenty of extra-base power, and is a very smart player who finds a way to win games, offensively and defensively.

Travis Fryman, 3b, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 551 149 31  2 21  74  89  4  42  2 114  9  5  .270  .323  .448  .771  78
Prorated   Cle 319  86 17  1 12  42  51  2  24  1  66  5  2  .270  .321  .442  .763  45
Actual     Cle 322  82 16  2 10  45  48  1  25  1  57  2  1  .255  .309  .410  .719  38

After playing nearly every game for six years, Fryman has been bitten by the injury bug in 1998-99 and was one of the few Indians to have a subpar year. First it was a recurring problem with back spasms, then a knee injury that cost him two months. The result was the lowest offensive production of his career. Fryman is a converted shortstop who showed a lot of range at third base before his physical problems cut down on his mobility. If he can get back to 100% physically, he can be an asset on both sides of the ball.

Enrique Wilson, 3b/ss/2b, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle  92  26  5  0  1  14   9  1   5  0   8  2  2  .283  .323  .370  .693  11
Prorated   Cle 338  95 18  0  3  51  33  3  18  0  29  7  7  .281  .320  .361  .681  37
Actual     Cle 332  87 22  1  2  41  24  1  25  1  41  5  4  .262  .310  .352  .663  35

Wilson managed to get his batting average over .300 in a couple of minor-league seasons, but he's never drawn many walks and hasn't shown much power to date. He played a lot more than expected this year, but his production was right in line with his established level of performance.

Russ Branyan, 3b, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle  64  13  4  0  4  11  14  0  11  1  23  0  0  .203  .320  .453  .773  10
Prorated   Cle  35   7  2  0  2   6   7  0   6  0  12  0  0  .200  .317  .429  .746   5
Actual     Cle  38   8  2  0  1   4   6  1   3  0  19  0  0  .211  .286  .342  .628   4

Branyan clubbed a total of 79 minor-league homers in 1996-97, then missed much of 1998 with wrist problems. He got his first crack at AAA pitching this year, and the results were mixed. On the plus side, he stroked 30 homers in 395 atbats. But he didn't make nearly enough contact, batting only .208 and striking out a whopping 187 times. Since there doesn't seem to be any room for him in the Indians lineup, he's often mentioned in trade rumors.

Omar Vizquel, ss, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 576 157 29  5  3  86  49  3  57  1  60 36 12  .273  .339  .356  .694  73
Prorated   Cle 583 159 29  5  3  87  49  3  57  1  60 36 12  .273  .338  .355  .693  74
Actual     Cle 574 191 36  4  5 112  66  1  65  0  50 42  9  .333  .397  .436  .833 109

This was Vizquel's finest season, combining Gold Glove defense with career highs in total bases, walks, runs, RBI and stolen base percentage. From 1989 through 1993, when he played for Seattle, Vizquel averaged .252 with a .309 on-base percentage and .303 slugging average. In his six years in Cleveland, he's raised those averages to .291/.357/.383, transforming himself from a defensive specialist to a very valuable all-around player.

David Justice, lf/rf/dh, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 526 148 36  1 24  86  88  0  76  8  93  5  4  .281  .367  .490  .858  97
Prorated   Cle 457 128 31  0 20  74  76  0  66  6  80  4  3  .280  .367  .479  .846  82
Actual     Cle 429 123 18  0 21  75  88  2  94 11  90  1  3  .287  .413  .476  .889  87

Justice matched his projected average and power numbers but tossed in a career-high 94 walks as a bonus. Ever since coming over from the Braves in the big 1997 trade, Justice has battled a seemingly endless series of injuries, most of them relatively minor. They cost him 29 games this year, and it's now been several years since he last showed above-average range in the outfield. His performance against left-handed pitchers was a little below the league average this year, and with all of the other bats at Cleveland's disposal, I wouldn't be surprised to see Justice getting a little less playing time in the future.

Wil Cordero, lf, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle  83  23  4  0  3  13  12  1   5  1  17  0  0  .277  .322  .434  .756  11
Prorated   Cle 200  55  9  0  7  31  28  2  12  2  40  0  0  .275  .319  .425  .744  27
Actual     Cle 194  58 15  0  8  35  32  6  15  0  37  2  0  .299  .364  .500  .864  35

Peter Gammons says Cordero settled down under the watchful eye of Sandy Alomar. Before he broke his wrist diving for a ball in early June, Cordero was on his way to his best year ever. He may be ready to begin fulfilling the potential he showed when he made his debut with the Expos at age 20. He broke in as a shortstop but proved to be too erratic in the field. Boston moved him to second, where his range was pretty good but his ability to turn the double play was lacking. He just signed a free agent deal with Pittsburgh, and if Gammons is correct about Alomar's influence, it'll be interesting to see how he does in his new home.

Mark Whiten, lf, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 110  28  6  0  3  17  14  1  15  1  29  2  1  .255  .349  .391  .740  15
Prorated   Cle  24   6  1  0  0   3   3  0   3  0   6  0  0  .250  .333  .292  .625   3
Actual     Cle  25   4  1  0  1   2   4  0   3  0   4  0  0  .160  .250  .320  .570   2

Whiten hasn't had more than 226 atbats in a season since 1996, so it's hard to say how much his skills might have diminished. At his peak, he was an outfielder with good range, a cannon for an arm, and a pretty good mix of on-base ability and power. His chance to show that he could still do all of these things in 1999 was derailed by a broken foot.

Kenny Lofton, cf, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 608 176 28  6  9 104  59  1  74  2  89 48 16  .289  .364  .400  .764  96
Prorated   Cle 492 142 22  4  7  84  47  0  59  1  72 38 12  .289  .362  .392  .754  75
Actual     Cle 465 140 28  6  7 110  39  6  79  2  84 25  6  .301  .405  .432  .838  92

Lofton is no longer the defensive player and base stealer he once was, but he's still a very good leadoff hitter. For the second time in three years, he missed a bunch of playing time due to injury, and next year will make three out of four after Lofton badly damaged his shoulder making a headfirst slide into first base in the divisional series against the Red Sox. He'll be out until at least the all-star game after recent rotator cuff surgery.

Dave Roberts, cf, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle  66  18  3  0  1  11   7  0   7  0  10  5  1  .273  .338  .364  .701   9
Prorated   Cle 137  37  6  0  2  22  14  0  14  0  20 10  2  .270  .338  .358  .696  19
Actual     Cle 143  34  4  0  2  26  12  0   9  0  16 11  3  .238  .281  .308  .589  14

A speedster, Roberts filled in quite well on defense and on the bases, but didn't hit much. As the projection above indicates, his minor-league record hasn't shown that he'll be a good hitter at the major-league level, but he should hit well enough to be a useful fourth or fifth outfielder.

Jacob Cruz, cf, age 26

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 375 102 22  1 10  54  59  5  38  3  57  8  5  .272  .344  .416  .760  53
Prorated   Cle  85  23  5  0  2  12  13  1   8  0  12  1  1  .271  .340  .400  .740  11
Actual     Cle  88  29  5  1  3  14  17  1   5  0  13  0  2  .330  .368  .511  .880  14

Unlike Roberts, Cruz has shown some pop in his bat in the minors, most notably when he hit 31 homers in 501 atbats at AAA in 1998. But don't get carried away by that .330 average and .511 slugging percentage. He didn't hit all that well at AAA in 1999 (.272 with 7 homers in 202 atbats). In addition, he'll turn 27 next month and he's only had 194 major-league atbats to this point. Star-quality players generally make their impact much sooner than this.

Manny Ramirez, rf, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle 531 159 36  1 33  95 110  6  70  6 106  4  3  .299  .383  .557  .940 112
Prorated   Cle 553 165 37  1 34  99 114  6  72  6 110  4  3  .298  .381  .553  .934 115
Actual     Cle 522 174 34  3 44 131 165 13  96  9 131  2  4  .333  .442  .663 1.105 158

I never said it publicly, so it doesn't really count, but I had a hunch back in March that Ramirez would be the MVP in 1999. He didn't win the award, but he definitely had an MVP-caliber season in a year when there were several excellent candidates. He's not a great outfielder, but he makes his share of plays in right field, and there's really no weakness in his offensive game. And he's still young enough to get better and to stay at a very high level for several years.

Alex Ramirez, rf, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Cle  89  25  4  2  3  13  14  1   1  0  18  1  1  .281  .293  .472  .765  11
Prorated   Cle  98  27  4  2  3  14  15  1   1  0  19  1  1  .276  .287  .449  .736  12
Actual     Cle  97  29  6  1  3  11  18  1   3  0  26  1  1  .299  .327  .474  .801  15

As you can see from his projection, he hardly ever walked in the minors, but he did hit for a average and power. He had another good year in AAA Buffalo (.305, .502 slugging) and acquitted himself quite well in the big leagues. It's not clear where he might play in 2000, since the outfield is a little crowded. Lofton's injury might give him an opening, but it may well be that his first real opportunity might come in 2001 if the Indians are unable to resign Manny Ramirez.

Harold Baines, dh, age 40

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Bal 404 120 21  0 15  54  69  1  47  7  55  0  0  .297  .369  .460  .830  66
Prorated   Bal 346 102 18  0 12  46  59  0  40  6  47  0  0  .295  .366  .451  .817  55
Actual     Bal 345 111 16  1 24  57  81  0  43  3  38  1  2  .322  .395  .583  .977  75

Prorated   Cle  85  25  4  0  3  11  14  0   9  1  11  0  0  .294  .362  .447  .809  13
Actual     Cle  85  23  2  0  1   5  22  0  11  0  10  0  0  .271  .354  .329  .684  10

Prorated   Tot 431 128 22  0 16  57  73  1  50  7  58  0  0  .297  .369  .459  .828  70
Actual     Tot 430 134 18  1 25  62 103  0  54  3  48  1  2  .312  .387  .533  .919  85

A year ago, Baines was coming off two years of declining power production and playing time, and I thought the end might be near. Then I saw Baines in a spring training game last March, and he hit the stuffing out of the ball every time up. Of course, one game doesn't mean anything, especially during the spring, but it made an impression on me. In 1999, he roared back with a vengeance in 1999 and is now on pace to reach 3000 hits and 400 homers in 2001. I've never thought of Baines as a Hall of Fame candidate, but if he does reach those milestones, it will lead to an interesting debate about whether these numbers are sufficient or whether the bar should be higher for someone who DH'd much of his career.

Key Pitchers

The Cleveland hurlers allowed 81 more runs than they had the year before, dropping them to 6th in the league in ERA and 8th in runs allowed. The bright spots were the continued development of Bartolo Colon and the emergence of Steve Karsay as one of the better right-handed middle relievers in the league. But Jaret Wright and Dwight Gooden saw their ERAs rise above 6.00, Paul Assenmacher suddenly lost his ability to get right-handed batters out, and relievers Steve Reed, Ricardo Rincon, and Mike Jackson were OK but not nearly as good as they had been leading up to this season.

Bartolo Colon, starter, age 24 (as of July 1, 1999)

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  3.96  32 32  13 10  0  209 206 16  83 166  .259  .714
Prorated   Cle  3.96  31 31  12 10  0  200 197 15  79 159  .259  .714
Actual     Cle  3.95  32 32  18  5  0  205 185 24  76 161  .242  .712

Colon struggled with the longball in May and June, but otherwise had a very strong season and was clearly the staff ace come playoff time. It's been said for the last couple of years that the Indians had a whole bunch of #3 starters but needed to trade for or sign a #1 to go all the way. When Colon was matching Pedro Martinez pitch-for-pitch in game one of the division series, I think it became clear that he can be the ace they've been looking for.

Dave Burba, starter, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  4.59  32 32  11 11  0  192 198 26  73 136  .268  .771
Prorated   Cle  4.59  36 36  12 12  0  217 224 29  82 154  .268  .771
Actual     Cle  4.25  34 34  15  9  0  220 211 30  96 174  .254  .757

Burba has been a very solid starting pitcher who has averaged 31 starts per season for the past four years after being used mostly in relief through age 28. Cleveland gave up Sean Casey to get him a day before the 1998 season started, and while Casey appears to be destined for a terrific career, the Indians should be happy with what they got in return -- 424 innings and a 30-19 record over the past two years.

Charles Nagy, starter, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  5.05  32 32  10 13  0  209 236 28  59 132  .289  .800
Prorated   Cle  5.05  32 32  10 13  0  207 234 28  58 131  .289  .800
Actual     Cle  4.95  33 32  17 11  0  202 238 26  59 126  .293  .801

In 1998, Nagy gave up 20 homers before the end of May and was well on his way to setting a new record for gopher balls allowed in a single season. Since then, he's done a better job of keeping the ball in the park. He still gives up too many hits, of course, but a league-average pitcher who's averaged over 200 innings per season for six years is still a very useful guy to have around.

Jaret Wright, starter, age 23

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  4.11  32 32  12 10  0  193 186 19  81 148  .255  .735
Prorated   Cle  4.11  23 23   9  7  0  141 136 14  59 108  .255  .735
Actual     Cle  6.06  26 26   8 10  0  134 144 18  77  91  .277  .816

When Wright broke in as a 21-year-old in 1997, he was described as the next Roger Clemens. It hasn't quite worked out that way. The year when Clemens was 23 on opening day (1986), he merely improved his control, struck out more hitters, went 24-4 with a 2.48 ERA, won the Cy Young and led his team to the World Series. In contrast, Wright's age-23 season featured a skyrocketing ERA, a serious loss of control, a big drop in his strikeout rate, two visits to the disabled list with back and shoulder problems, and questions about his emotional makeup.

Dwight Gooden, starter, age 34

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  4.93  27 27   9  9  0  157 170 19  70 109  .278  .792
Prorated   Cle  4.93  20 20   7  7  0  119 129 14  53  83  .278  .792
Actual     Cle  6.26  26 22   3  4  0  115 127 18  67  88  .282  .846

After a stretch from 1994-97 when is ERA was over 5.00, Gooden bounced back with a pretty decent 1998 season (8-6, 3.76), so there was reason to believe he'd be a useful #3 or #4 starter for the Tribe in 1999. But he had only a couple of brief periods of effectiveness in 1999, and the Indians declined to pick up his option for 2000, making him a free agent.

Mark Langston, swing man, age 38

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  6.10   4  4   1  2  0   21  26  3  10  13  .310  .879
Prorated   Cle  6.10  11 11   3  6  0   59  74  9  29  37  .310  .879
Actual     Cle  5.25  25  5   1  2  0   62  69  9  29  43  .288  .841

This was the third straight year in which his ERA has been over 5.00, and the sixth in which it's been over 4.50, so younger fans might not remember that he was one of the league's better starting pitchers for about ten years before that.

Rich DeLucia, middle reliever, age 34

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  4.06  23  0   2  1  0   31  27  4  19  31  .235  .752
Prorated   Cle  4.06   8  0   1  0  0   11  10  1   7  11  .235  .752
Actual     Cle  6.75   6  0   0  1  0    9  13  4   9   7  .317 1.147

DeLucia has been a somewhat useful reliever for six different teams since 1993, but with right-handers Reed, Karsay, Shuey and Jackson ahead of him, DeLucia found himself in AAA for most of the year.

Paul Assenmacher, lefty specialist, age 38

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  3.49  53  0   3  2  0   57  58  5  15  54  .266  .706
Prorated   Cle  3.49  37  0   2  1  0   39  40  3  10  37  .266  .706
Actual     Cle  8.18  55  0   2  1  0   33  50  6  17  29  .347  .956

Assenmacher continued to be effective against lefties in 1999, as he held them to a .227 average and gave up only six walks and three homers to them all year. But right-handed batters crushed everything he threw up there (.449 average, .511 on-base, and .679 slugging), and that made it difficult to use him in many situations. From 1994-98, he had held righties to a .252 average, so his vulnerability came as something of a surprise.

Steve Karsay, long reliever/setup man, age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  5.76   4  4   1  2  0   25  31  3   7  18  .304  .832
Prorated   Cle  5.76  12 12   3  6  0   72  90  9  20  52  .304  .832
Actual     Cle  2.97  50  3  10  2  1   79  71  6  30  68  .247  .696

It's hard to believe Karsay was only 27 last year. Six years ago, he was the Blue Jays' top pitching prospect, and many thought Toronto erred by trading him to Oakland to get Rickey Henderson for the 1993 stretch run. But even at that young age, Karsay had a history of arm problems, and those problems have continued to plague him. Last year, he emerged as one of the better right-handed middle relievers in the league, and it looked as if the lighter workload was just the right medicine for his arm. But he landed on the DL again in late August with a strained forearm.

Steve Reed, middle reliever, age 33

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  2.83  70  0   7  3  3  102  79 12  38  81  .215  .656
Prorated   Cle  2.83  46  0   5  2  2   66  52  8  25  53  .215  .656
Actual     Cle  4.23  63  0   3  2  0   62  69 10  20  44  .285  .804

In five years with the Rockies from 1993-97, pitching in an environment that inflates batting averages by 60 points and scoring by over 50%, Reed held opposing hitters to a remarkably low .245 average. In his other 70 innings prior to joining Cleveland, Reed allowed only 43 hits. But he's had a series of arm problems since coming over to the AL -- a blood clot in his right hand in 1998, an infected bursa sac in his pitching elbow in early 1999, and a strained forearm in September. His 4.23 ERA was right around the average for AL relievers in 1999.

Ricardo Rincon, setup man, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  3.13  70  0   5  2  4   75  66  8  32  74  .237  .701
Prorated   Cle  3.13  43  0   3  1  2   46  40  5  20  45  .237  .701
Actual     Cle  4.43  59  0   2  3  0   45  41  6  24  30  .248  .758

I thought Rincon was a terrific pickup for the Indians last winter. He had been an effective reliever with Pittsburgh, earning 29 holds and 18 saves in 1997-98. But he found himself on the DL with elbow problems a few days into the season, and wasn't quite the same after his return in mid-May.

Paul Shuey, setup man, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  3.54  53  0   5  3  0   74  70  7  34  84  .252  .717
Prorated   Cle  3.54  59  0   6  3  0   81  77  8  38  93  .252  .717
Actual     Cle  3.53  72  0   8  5  6   82  68  8  40 103  .223  .678

For the first time in his big-league career, Shuey has put together two good years in a row, and that might be enough to give him a chance to close games in 2000 now that Mike Jackson has left for Philly as a free agent. But Shuey has been inconsistent in save situations, blowing 9 of 17 opportunities in 1998-99, so it's not a sure thing, especially with Rincon as a viable option.

Mike Jackson, closer, age 34

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Cle  2.42  70  0   5  5 40   78  61  6  23  73  .216  .614
Prorated   Cle  2.42  65  0   5  5 37   72  56  6  21  67  .216  .614
Actual     Cle  4.06  72  0   3  4 39   69  60 11  26  55  .232  .691

After posting a 1.55 ERA in 1998, Jackson wasn't nearly as overpowering in 1999, though his other stats show that he was a little better than his 4.06 ERA suggests. He was good enough to collect 39 saves in 43 chances, though I suspect his high-powered offense gave him a lot of relatively easy save situations to work with. Jackson became a free agent after the season and signed a big contract to pitch with the Phillies in 2000 and beyond.

Outlook

This team will score runs next year, though they might be hard-pressed to approach the 1000-run mark again. Kenny Lofton will miss the first half, Wil Cordero has left as a free agent, and several others who had big years in 1999 could easily slide a little. But they could drop 100 runs and still be in the top three teams in scoring, so this isn't much of a worry.

I think there's a pretty good chance their pitching could improve. Colon seems poised for a breakout season. Jaret Wright can only get better. They signed Chuck Finley to a rich contract, giving them a durable lefty in the rotation to replace the departing Dwight Gooden and his 6.26 ERA. They still have Burba and Nagy to fill out the rotation. And their bullpen seems deep enough to survive the loss of Mike Jackson, and might be better in 2000 if Reed and Rincon are healthy and return to their pre-Cleveland form.

It's still a long way until opening day, but I'll go way out on a limb and say that Cleveland will once again enter the season as a prohibitive favorite to win its division. But I wouldn't be surprised to see their division rivals (if you can call them that) push the Indians a little harder.

Copyright © 1999. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.