1999 Post-Season Review -- Colorado Rockies

Written by Sherri Nichols
Edited by Tom Tippett
December 30, 1999

This article takes a look at how the Colorado Rockies did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews.

Capsule Summary

                Projected    Actual
Runs for           877         906
Runs allowed       901        1028
Run margin         -29        -122
Wins                79          72
Pythagorean Wins    79          71
Placement          4th         5th

They say it's easier to replace the manager than the players, but after Jim Leyland failed to turn them around, the Rockies seem ready to try it the hard way. In fact, they've done both; a new GM (Dan O'Dowd), manager (Buddy Bell) and 15 new players will go to spring training in February.

Key Position Players

The challenge for the Rockies in replacing the team is recognizing the distorting effect that Coors Field has on player statistics, and recognizing what's in need of improvement. The Colorado offense was second in the league last season in runs scored, just barely behind Arizona, but down at sea level, the Rockies weren't so productive. If they scored runs at home at the rate they scored them on the road, they would have been worst in the league.

Henry Blanco, c, age 27

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col  68  17  4  0  1   7   9  0   6  0  13  1  0  .250  .307  .353  .660   7
Prorated   Col 274  68 16  0  4  28  36  0  24  0  52  4  0  .248  .305  .350  .655  29
Actual     Col 263  61 12  3  6  30  28  1  34  1  38  1  1  .232  .320  .369  .689  33

Now with Milwaukee. You might think that Blanco didn't get a boost from Coors with these numbers, but he wasn't even close to the Mendoza line on the road. The Rockies have signed Brent Mayne as a free agent; if Mayne repeats his San Francisco level of performance, he'll look like an all-star in Coors.

Kirt Manwaring, c, age 33

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col  86  20  3  1  0   7   7  1   9  0  18  0  0  .233  .313  .291  .603   8
Prorated   Col 137  31  4  1  0  11  11  1  14  0  28  0  0  .226  .303  .270  .573  11
Actual     Col 137  41  7  1  2  17  14  5  12  1  23  0  0  .299  .374  .409  .783  21

Manwaring has a reputation as a good defensive catcher, and his road numbers (.267/.362/.367) suggest that he's an adequate backup catcher offensively. However, Manwaring is a free agent, and the Rockies just signed Scott Servais to a minor-league contract with an invitation to the big-league camp.

Ben Petrick, c, age 22

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Actual     Col  62  20  3  0  4  13  12  0  10  0  13  1  0  .323  .417  .565  .981  15

The catcher of the future for the Rockies, Petrick went from AA to AAA to the majors this season, and hit well at all three levels. He showed substantial improvement from previous seasons, and is still pretty young. He may not be ready next season, but should be there soon.

Todd Helton, 1b, age 25

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col 550 172 38  1 23  87  99  4  60  5  70  3  3  .313  .381  .511  .892 106
Prorated   Col 582 182 40  1 24  92 104  4  63  5  74  3  3  .313  .381  .509  .889 112
Actual     Col 578 185 39  5 35 114 113  6  68  6  77  7  6  .320  .395  .587  .981 132

Until Peyton Manning's breakthrough season this fall, Helton was the former University of Tennessee quarterback with the best pro career. These numbers look gaudy, but Helton isn't nearly so impressive on the road, where he only managed .252/.324/.447. Here's a spot where the Rockies are likely to conclude they're set, but really could use more production.

Mike Lansing, 2b, age 31

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col 552 158 38  1 15  80  62  5  37  3  87 11  4  .286  .335  .440  .775  80
Prorated   Col 141  40  9  0  3  20  15  1   9  0  22  2  1  .284  .331  .411  .742  18
Actual     Col 145  45  9  0  4  24  15  1   7  0  22  2  0  .310  .344  .455  .799  23

Lansing was projected to be the starter, but back problems limited his playing time, finally ending his season by the end of June. He's expected to recover from back surgery and be the starter at second base next year. Despite back pain, he performed better than expected, and unusually, performed on the road as well as he did at Coors.

Terry Shumpert, 2b, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col  69  16  4  0  1  10   7  1   4  0  12  1  1  .232  .284  .333  .617   6
Prorated   Col 279  64 16  0  4  40  28  4  16  0  48  4  4  .229  .281  .330  .611  25
Actual     Col 262  91 26  3 10  58  37  2  31  2  41 14  0  .347  .413  .584  .997  69

Shumpert put up the best numbers of the legion of substitute second basemen, so he gets re-signed as the back up second basemen. Even after accounting for the Coors boost, his numbers were respectable last year.

Kurt Abbott, 2b, age 30

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col  93  28  7  1  3  14  12  1   6  0  27  1  1  .301  .347  .495  .841  15
Prorated   Col 278  83 20  2  8  41  35  2  17  0  80  2  2  .299  .341  .471  .812  43
Actual     Col 286  78 17  2  8  41  41  0  16  0  69  3  2  .273  .310  .430  .740  38

Subtracting the Coors boost from Abbott's numbers take them from respectable to weak. Abbott batted .181/.245/.276 on the road last season. Abbott is a free agent, and with Shumpert's re-signing, seems less likely to be re-signed.

Neifi Perez, ss, age 24

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col 619 176 27  9 10  86  63  1  32  2  70  9  8  .284  .318  .405  .724  79
Prorated   Col 675 192 29  9 10  93  68  1  34  2  76  9  8  .284  .317  .399  .716  84
Actual     Col 690 193 27 11 12 108  70  1  28  0  54 13  5  .280  .307  .403  .710  87

On the road, Perez hit .251/.287/.356, which suggests that he's really a below-average offensive shortstop, rather than the average shortstop his overall numbers would indicate. He's still young, though, and replacing him with an average offensive shortstop wouldn't have a big impact on the offense. Reportedly, the Rockies are trying to decide whether to bat Perez or Lansing in the number two spot in the order; that decision shouldn't take long.

Vinny Castilla, 3b, age 36

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col 589 174 26  2 37  91 115  6  36  7  97  3  4  .295  .340  .535  .875  99
Prorated   Col 625 184 27  2 39  96 122  6  38  7 102  3  4  .294  .339  .531  .870 104
Actual     Col 615 169 24  1 33  83 102  1  53  7  75  2  3  .275  .331  .478  .809  94

Castilla is now with Tampa Bay. Castilla performed somewhat less well than expected, and was about at the league average for third basemen. He didn't get as big a boost from Coors as most of his teammates, hitting .264/.312/.458 on the road. The new third baseman for Colorado is Jeff Cirillo, who doesn't have Castilla's home run pop, but doesn't make as many outs as Castilla either; Cirillo's OBP last year was 70 points higher than Castilla's. Cirillo is also 6 years younger than Castilla.

Dante Bichette, lf, age 35

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col 578 177 38  2 21  83 110  2  28  2  86 11  5  .306  .338  .488  .826  90
Prorated   Col 621 190 40  2 22  89 118  2  30  2  92 11  5  .306  .337  .483  .820  95
Actual     Col 593 177 38  2 34 104 133  2  54  3  84  6  6  .298  .354  .541  .895 110

Bichette is now with the Reds; in exchange, the Rockies got the player they expect to replace Bichette, Jeffrey Hammonds, and reliever Stan Belinda. Bichette performed above his projection last year, and he did it on the road as well, hitting .287/.342/.502. It's probably the right time to trade Bichette, but I'm not sure Hammonds is the answer as his replacement. Hammonds had a good year last season in Cincy, but as a part-time player. Hammonds has never been an everyday player in the majors. The Rockies do have a few young outfielders waiting in the wings in Clemente, Gibson, and Rod Bair.

Edgard Clemente, cf, age 23

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col  71  16  2  1  2   9  10  0   4  0  18  1  0  .225  .267  .366  .633   7
Prorated   Col 161  36  4  2  4  20  22  0   9  0  41  2  0  .224  .265  .348  .613  15
Actual     Col 162  41 10  2  8  24  25  0   7  0  46  0  0  .253  .282  .488  .770  21

AKA Edgard Velazquez.. Clemente, the nephew of Roberto, saw his first significant major league action this season, and while the numbers weren't great, they were better than projected. His minor league numbers were pretty good, and Clemente's major league numbers are likely to improve, given the chance to play. The Rockies have signed Tom Goodwin to a three-year deal as their center fielder and leadoff hitter, which suggests that the Rockies don't think Clemente will be the answer in center.

Darryl Hamilton, cf, age 34

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col 631 192 34  5  5 107  55  2  74  1  79 15  9  .304  .377  .398  .775  99
Prorated   Col 331 100 17  2  2  56  28  1  38  0  41  7  4  .302  .374  .384  .757  50
Actual     Col 337 102 11  3  4  63  24  1  38  0  21  4  5  .303  .374  .389  .763  49

Prorated   NYN 165  50  8  1  1  28  14  0  19  0  20  3  2  .303  .373  .382  .755  24
Actual     NYN 168  57  8  1  5  19  21  1  19  0  18  2  3  .339  .410  .488  .898  34

Prorated   Tot 496 151 26  3  3  84  43  1  58  0  62 11  7  .304  .376  .387  .763  76
Actual     Tot 505 159 19  4  9  82  45  2  57  0  39  6  8  .315  .386  .422  .808  83

Hamilton was performing exactly as projected offensively, though there was concern about his defense in center field. The Rockies outfielders have a lot of ground to cover, and Colorado was trying to do it with a collection of old legs. Hamilton was traded to the Mets for Brian McRae, who was then shipped on to Toronto. The Rockies plan to solve their center field problem with the speedy Tom Goodwin.

Larry Walker, rf, age 32

                AB   H 2B 3B HR   R RBI HP   W IW   K SB CS   AVG   OBP   SPC   OPS  RC
Projection Col 544 188 50  2 37 132  99  9  73  7  90 24  6  .346  .429  .649 1.078 154
Prorated   Col 443 153 40  1 30 107  80  7  59  5  73 19  4  .345  .429  .643 1.072 125
Actual     Col 438 166 26  4 37 108 115 12  57  8  52 11  4  .379  .458  .710 1.168 143

Bothered by sore knees all season, Walker played well, just not as often. His road performance (.286/.375/.519) was respectable, though nothing compared to the incredible Coors numbers he put up (.461/.531/.879). Walker's been bothered by sore joints the last two seasons (elbow in '98, knee in '99); Colorado has to hope that's an aberration, not a sign of increasing age. Walker has lost weight and improved his off-season conditioning, which should help.

Key Pitchers

The pitching staff wasn't great, even if it wasn't quite as bad as Coors made it look. On the road, the staff only managed a 4.84 ERA, which is still worse than the league average. The bullpen lacked an effective lefty, the closer blew too many saves, and only Pedro Astacio performed well in the rotation. The pitching staff has seen the most change in the off-season, with 9 new pitchers already; don't expect to see too many of the following pitchers on the team next year.

Pedro Astacio, starter, age 29

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  6.06  32 32   7 16  0  200 241 34  71 170  .301  .868
Prorated   Col  6.06  36 36   8 18  0  225 271 38  80 191  .301  .868
Actual     Col  5.04  34 34  17 11  0  232 258 38  75 210  .285  .822

Astacio performed better than projected, and quite respectably on the road, where he posted a 3.60 ERA. Maybe that's why he's still on the team. The 17 victories don't hurt either. Astacio is one of the few pitchers with a lock on a job in the rotation. The only other is recently acquired Rolando Arrojo, part of the big four-team trade.

Brian Bohanon, starter, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  5.54  32 32   8 14  0  187 210 27  77 144  .286  .839
Prorated   Col  5.54  35 35   9 15  0  203 228 29  84 156  .286  .839
Actual     Col  6.20  33 33  12 12  0  197 236 30  92 120  .305  .885

Bohanon will be in the mix fighting for the three remaining rotation spots, along with newcomers Scott Karl, Manny Aybar, and Jose Jimenez (of no-hitter fame). Bohanon and Karl are the lefties in the group, and Bohanon has been somewhat better at inducing ground balls in his career than Karl, which may give him a leg up. On the road last year, Bohanon posted a 5.02 ERA, and gave up fewer hits than innings pitched.

[TT: Here's what I wrote about the Rockies back in the spring...

"A year ago, their big free-agent signing was a pitcher (Darryl Kile) with one good season in the previous three who did his work in a pitcher's park (Astrodome). We figured the three-year averages and adjusted for the difference in ballparks and came up with a projected ERA of 5.14. His actual 1998 ERA was 5.20. And people were disappointed.

I fear we're destined to repeat history. This year, the Rockies' big free-agent signing is Brian Bohanon, a pitcher with one good season in the last three who is moving from a pair of pitcher's parks (Shea Stadium and Dodger Stadium). Sound familiar? I hope, for Brian's sake, that Colorado management isn't expecting way too much."]

Darryl Kile, starter, age 30

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  5.28  32 32  10 13  0  199 227 25  87 160  .288  .809
Prorated   Col  5.28  32 32  10 13  0  198 225 25  86 159  .288  .809
Actual     Col  6.61  32 32   8 13  0  191 225 33 109 116  .298  .891

Now with St. Louis, Kile went over in the trade that brought Aybar and Jimenez. Kile was a disappointment in Colorado, who signed him after his great season in Houston in 1997. Kile wasn't even very effective on the road for Colorado, with a 5.89 ERA and a 3-10 record. Busch Stadium is likely to be a friendlier place for Kile to resurrect his career.

Jamey Wright, starter, age 24

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  5.66  27 27   7 12  0  167 196 19  77  84  .297  .844
Prorated   Col  5.66  15 15   4  7  0   93 110 11  43  47  .297  .844
Actual     Col  4.87  16 16   4  3  0   94 110 10  54  49  .308  .877

Wright is now in Milwaukee, gone as part of the four-team Vinny Castilla trade. Wright is one of the few home-grown talents on the Rockies, and had his best season for them this past year, posting better numbers at the big league level than he did in Colorado Springs.

Bobby Jones, starter/middle reliever , age 27

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  5.85  34  4   3  6  0   72  86  8  39  60  .298  .849
Prorated   Col  5.85  55  6   5 10  0  117 139 13  63  97  .298  .849
Actual     Col  6.33  30 20   6 10  0  112 132 24  77  74  .292  .912

Jones didn't do much to impress last year, and doesn't seem to figure in the Rockies' rotation plans for 2000. That's way too many walks to give up and survive Coors; it's the kiss of death to put free base runners on in a park that inflates offense so much.

Mike DeJean, middle reliever, age 28

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  4.01  57  4   4  5  0   94 102  5  32  49  .279  .740
Prorated   Col  4.01  40  3   3  4  0   67  72  4  23  35  .279  .740
Actual     Col  8.41  57  0   2  4  0   61  83 13  32  31  .335  .971

DeJean wasn't sharp on the road, with a 6.28 ERA, and his numbers in Coors were wretched -- a 10.30 ERA, 53 hits in 32.1 innings, and 9 homers. DeJean struggled mightily with the long ball, giving up 3 times as many dingers this season as in past seasons, and more hits in general. With all the new arms coming in to fight for bullpen jobs, DeJean could find himself on the outside looking in next season, despite his previous success in Colorado.

Jerry DiPoto, reliever, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  4.27  70  0   2  7 25   72  80  8  28  56  .286  .794
Prorated   Col  4.27  84  0   2  8 30   86  96 10  34  67  .286  .794
Actual     Col  4.26  63  0   4  5  1   87  91 10  44  69  .279  .798

DiPoto went from closer to setup man, and now is poised to move back to the closer role after the trade of Dave Veres. DiPoto was one of the more effective pitchers in the pen last year for Colorado, and was almost as effective at home as on the road.

Curt Leskanic, middle reliever, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  4.63  70  0   5  5  2   93  98 13  53  86  .272  .815
Prorated   Col  4.63  64  0   5  5  2   85  89 12  48  78  .272  .815
Actual     Col  5.08  63  0   6  2  0   85  87  7  49  77  .272  .796

Leskanic is now with Milwaukee, traded for left-handed reliever Mike Myers. Leskanic's numbers weren't that far off projections, and really were pretty decent for a reliever in Coors. With all the new, younger arms the Rockies had added, though, Leskanic was deemed expendable, and was shipped off to fill a void in the bullpen: someone who could get left-handed hitters out. Myers held lefties to a .188 batting average last season.

Chuck McElroy, middle reliever, age 31

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  4.00  70  0   4  4  1   72  79  5  27  68  .280  .739
Prorated   Col  4.00  43  0   2  2  1   44  48  3  16  41  .280  .739
Actual     Col  6.20  41  0   3  1  0   41  48  9  28  37  .296  .933

Prorated   NYN  4.00  13  0   1  1  0   13  15  1   5  13  .280  .739
Actual     NYN  3.38  15  0   0  0  0   13  12  0   8   7  .250  .716

Prorated   Tot  4.00  56  0   3  3  1   57  63  4  22  54  .280  .739
Actual     Tot  5.50  56  0   3  1  0   54  60  9  36  44  .286  .883

McElroy was traded to the Mets along with Darryl Hamilton. Like several other Rockie relievers (no pun intended), he had difficulty with the long ball this season. His biggest problem, though, was his ineffectiveness against left-handed hitters, who batted .266/.359/.494.

David Lee, middle reliever, age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Actual     Col  3.67  36  0   3  2  0   49  43  4  29  38  .247  .731

Lee had a busy travel summer, pitching for AA Carolina, AAA Colorado Springs, and the Rockies. Giving up less than a hit per inning pitched while pitching for Colorado is quite an achievement, and while the walk total is a little high, that's not as deadly for a reliever. Lee's outstanding 0.93 road ERA should rate him a chance at next year's bullpen.

Roberto Ramirez, middle reliever , age 26

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  4.86  53  0   2  3  0   54  53 12  30  59  .259  .848
Prorated   Col  4.86  46  0   2  3  0   47  46 10  26  52  .259  .848
Actual     Col  8.26  32  4   1  5  1   40  68  8  22  32  .368 1.035

Another lefty who failed to get lefties out, Ramirez struggled to retire anybody last season. He wasn't much more effective on the road than at Coors, with a 6.14 ERA and 26 hits allowed in only 14.2 innings.

Dave Veres, closer, age 32

           Tm    ERA   G GS   W  L  S  INN   H HR  BB   K   AVG   OPS
Projection Col  4.10  30  0   2  2  0   42  43  4  17  40  .269  .747
Prorated   Col  4.10  58  0   4  4  0   81  83  8  33  78  .269  .747
Actual     Col  5.14  73  0   4  8 31   77  88 14  37  71  .290  .838

Veres converted 31 of 39 save opportunities, which is not particularly good, so even if he hadn't been traded to St. Louis, he probably would have been moved out of the closer role. More so than probably any other pitcher on the staff, you want your closer to keep the ball in the park, because the closer is often pitching in high leverage situations, where a homer can end a game right then. Veres was not very effective at doing that last year, and which explains the low save percentage. Coors was his downfall; 11 of the 14 homers were given up at home.

Outlook

The Rockies have made a lot of changes since last season, but they needed to. In a park like Coors, you need players who get on base and can cover ground defensively, especially in the outfield, and the Rockies have acquired players that should improve the team in those areas. They've gotten somewhat younger, though not dramatically so. The pitching staff will be different; how well all those pitchers adapt to Coors will be key.

With so many changes, including the GM and manager, the Rockies are one of the harder teams to predict for next season. They'll still be far from one of the best teams in the league, but the NL West isn't exactly stocked with the best teams in the league. The Rockies wouldn't be my first choice to win the West next year, but in this division, an average team with a few players having career years can surprise. With their moves, the Rockies have probably moved closer to that average team status.

Copyright © 1999. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.