Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Detroit Tigers By Gary Gillette This article takes a look at how the Detroit Tigers did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 794 747 Runs allowed 828 882 Run Margin -34 -135 Wins 79 69 Pythagorean wins 78 68 Placement 2nd 3rd No steps forward, two steps back is an apt characterization of Detroit's disappointing 1999 season. The Tigers started the season by losing six of their first seven games, setting the tone for what followed. 1999 should have been a feel-good year all-around as the team and the fans bid grand old Tiger Stadium adieu. Instead, the Tigers crashed and burned in the first half of the season as the players went through the motions before a mostly empty ballpark. After the All-Star break, Detroit started drawing better as the alienated fans in Motown realized that there weren't going to be many more chances to take in a game at the hallowed corner of Michigan and Trumbull. By then, though, it was way too late to salvage anything from the season except waves of nostalgia -- and GM Randy Smith's job. Smith, who basked in deserved accolades after his first two seasons in Detroit, was the subject of numerous rumors late in the year. He avoided owner Mike Ilitch's ax, though he wielded his own halberd and chopped off rookie manager Larry Parrish's head. Afterward, Randy was so anxious to sign Milwaukee refugee skipper Phil Garner that Detroit was the only team fined by the commissioner for not interviewing qualified minority candidates for a high-level job. Key Position PlayersThe big news of the off-season in Michigan was the blockbuster trade in early November with Texas that netted the Tigers slugging outfielder Juan Gonzalez, pitcher Danny Patterson and catcher Greg Zaun. The cost was steep, as Detroit gave up pitchers Justin Thompson, Francisco Cordero and Alan Webb, outfielder Gabe Kapler, catcher Bill Haselman and infielder Frank Catalanotto. That trade translates into Detroit sending its number three starter (and only southpaw in the rotation), two of its best pitching prospects, its young starting center fielder, and two quality reserves to Texas for Gonzalez, plus a middle-aged middle reliever who had the worst season of his career in '99, plus a weak-hitting backup catcher. All of this, of course, with no assurance that Juan will re-up with Detroit after the final year of his contract in 2000. Even if he posts MVP-type numbers again, Gonzalez won't be able to carry Detroit all by himself. He'll need help from outfielders Juan Encarnacion and Bobby Higginson, and from infielders Dean Palmer, Damion Easley, and Tony Clark. Unfortunately, four of those five key players (all except Palmer) slumped in '99, resulting in the team's offense being a substantial underachiever. The primary culprit for the lack of runs was the team's pitiful .326 on-base average, second-to-last in the AL and one of only four teams with a sub-.340 OBA (the others being Anaheim, Minnesota, and Chicago). Even if Detroit's sluggers had performed as anticipated, the Tigers aren't going to score enough runs to contend if no one is on base when the balls fly over the fence. Brad Ausmus, c, age 30 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 464 117 16 2 7 63 49 3 50 8 73 11 5 .252 .327 .341 .667 52 Prorated Det 465 117 16 2 7 63 49 3 50 8 73 11 5 .252 .326 .340 .666 51 Actual Det 458 126 25 6 9 62 54 14 51 0 71 12 9 .275 .365 .415 .779 70 Having the best offensive year of your career by a small margin in 1999 is nothing to get excited about. Ausmus' strength is his defense (he threw out 32 of 91 attempted basestealers and made only two errors in 127 games). Unfortunately, those attributes are largely wasted in a power-friendly ballpark in a power-based league in a peak-power era. Another of his talents is good speed for a catcher, as evidenced by his six triples and 12 steals. Because of that speed and his OBA, he actually led off seven games for Detroit! Bill Haselman, c, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 91 23 5 0 4 10 12 0 5 1 18 0 0 .253 .289 .440 .728 11 Prorated Det 143 36 7 0 6 15 18 0 7 1 28 0 0 .252 .285 .427 .711 16 Actual Det 143 39 8 0 4 13 14 0 10 1 26 2 0 .273 .320 .413 .733 18 Haselman had a good year backing up Ausmus; in return, Detroit sent him back to Texas (where he had his career year in 1998) in the Gonzalez deal. As usual, he hit lefties better than righties. Defensively, Haselman made only one error in 39 games behind the plate and kept enemy runners to about the league average in stealing percentage. Robert Fick, c/dh/1b , age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 67 17 4 0 3 11 10 1 6 1 11 1 0 .254 .320 .448 .768 10 Prorated Det 43 11 2 0 1 7 6 0 3 0 7 0 0 .256 .304 .372 .676 5 Actual Det 41 9 0 0 3 6 10 0 7 0 6 1 0 .220 .327 .439 .766 6 Fick endured a very disappointing season, spending almost the whole year on the DL due to a left shoulder injury. He underwent surgery in May and wasn't activated till early September. Because of the injury, it was a lost year: what little playing time he got late in the season wasn't enough to establish whether he could handle catching at the ML level defensively, nor was it enough to get a good read on whether his terrific 1998 at AA was a real indicator of his ML hitting ability. Unless Fick can establish himself in the spring, he'll likely spend time in 2000 as a part-time catcher, part-time DH, and reserve first baseman. If he never does anything else in his career, he'll always be remembered for hitting the final home run ever in Tiger Stadium - an eighth-inning grand slam off K.C.'s Jeff Montgomery that nearly cleared the right field roof and left everyone in the capacity crowd cheering. Tony Clark, 1b, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 557 153 30 1 32 87 101 3 62 6 128 1 2 .275 .348 .504 .852 97 Prorated Det 541 148 29 0 31 84 98 2 60 5 124 0 1 .274 .346 .499 .845 93 Actual Det 536 150 29 0 31 74 99 6 64 7 133 2 1 .280 .361 .507 .869 98 Clark finished 1999 pretty close to where he was expected to. Regrettably, that still left a bad taste in everyone's mouth, since his miserable first half (.240 BA, .318 OBA, .384 SA) was a prime factor in the team's descent into despair. His torrid hitting after the All-Star break (.317/.400/.622) was certainly welcome, but the season was over for Detroit long before then. It's a common myth that good power hitters are consistent. In reality, most big-time power hitters are frightfully streaky. But Clark isn't that good of a slugger to excuse this kind of schizoid performance. Frank Catalanotto, 2b/1b/3b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 95 26 5 1 3 12 13 2 7 1 15 1 2 .274 .333 .442 .775 13 Prorated Det 285 78 15 3 9 36 39 6 21 3 45 3 6 .274 .333 .442 .775 40 Actual Det 286 79 19 0 11 41 35 9 15 1 49 3 4 .276 .327 .458 .785 42 Catalanotto has been remarkably consistent offensively in his brief ML career. What he needed was a manager who appreciated what he could do, and who gave him more playing time to do it. Frank found that manager in Larry Parrish, but both Parrish and Catalanotto have now departed Motown. With more experience under his belt entering his prime years, Catalanotto could open some eyes and become an even more valuable reserve player in Texas. Damion Easley, 2b, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 553 142 35 2 21 85 83 15 47 2 106 18 7 .257 .330 .441 .771 81 Prorated Det 559 143 35 2 21 85 83 15 47 2 107 18 7 .256 .329 .438 .767 81 Actual Det 549 146 30 1 20 83 65 19 51 2 124 11 3 .266 .346 .434 .779 84 Easley signed a four-year contract extension in April last year that ties him up through 2004, with a club option for 2005. That's how much faith the Detroit brain trust had in his ability, and Damion turned in another good-but-not-great year with the bat. In the field, he played well at second and even was pressed into emergency duty at shortstop, where he acquitted himself admirably. At 30, Easley could still have a career year if he's both lucky and healthy, but he's pretty good as he is (.779 OPS vs. .768 for average AL second baseman). Deivi Cruz, ss, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 548 139 29 3 5 57 55 3 18 0 67 4 5 .254 .280 .345 .625 50 Prorated Det 520 132 27 2 4 54 52 2 17 0 63 3 4 .254 .279 .337 .616 46 Actual Det 518 147 35 0 13 64 58 4 12 0 57 1 4 .284 .302 .427 .729 63 Cruz developed legitimate power at age 24 -- at least, for a guy who essentially couldn't hit a lick previously. He set career highs in batting, on-base, and slugging in '99, though he still refuses to work the count and walked an embarrassing 12 times. Of course, Deivi didn't make the big leagues by virtue of his lumber, and he displayed plus range at short in '99. Cruz finished the season strongly at the plate; that plus his age augurs well for continued improvement in 2000. Dean Palmer, 3b, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 599 154 28 1 35 83 108 5 48 3 146 4 1 .257 .313 .482 .795 90 Prorated Det 570 146 26 0 33 79 102 4 45 2 139 3 0 .256 .311 .475 .786 83 Actual Det 560 147 25 2 38 92 100 10 57 3 153 3 3 .263 .339 .518 .857 97 What you see is what you get with Dean Palmer. He pretty much did what was asked of him when he was inked by Detroit to a five-year deal as a free agent after the 1998 season. Dean absolutely destroyed lefties in '99, hitting .390 with a .432 on-base and .750 slugging against southpaws, far more than his normal platoon spread. Juan Encarnacion, lf/cf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 535 146 26 7 15 80 66 13 29 2 108 25 7 .273 .322 .432 .754 76 Prorated Det 492 134 23 6 13 73 60 11 26 1 99 23 6 .272 .320 .423 .742 68 Actual Det 509 130 30 6 19 62 74 9 14 1 113 33 12 .255 .287 .450 .736 61 Like too many tools players with poor plate discipline, Encarnacion found out that major league pitchers are a lot smarter than minor league pitchers -- they long ago figured out that they didn't need to throw strikes to hitters who persist in swinging at marginal pitches. Juan's got way too much talent to flop completely, but he isn't going to make much of that talent if he doesn't learn to take some pitches: 14 walks in 538 plate appearances is asking for a ticket back to AAA. Encarnacion was hit in the face by a pitch in late September, fracturing his cheekbone and nose. Obviously, this serious injury is another caution for expecting too much from him in the immediate future. Gabe Kapler, cf/rf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 87 23 5 1 4 14 13 1 7 1 14 1 1 .264 .323 .483 .806 14 Prorated Det 424 112 24 4 19 68 63 4 34 4 68 4 4 .264 .322 .474 .796 65 Actual Det 416 102 22 4 18 60 49 2 42 0 74 11 5 .245 .315 .447 .762 59 Despite his well-sculpted body, unexpected speed, and good range in the outfield, Kapler disappointed last year at the plate. It was his first full year in the big leagues, so that experience should result in improved offensive stats in 2000. Though he was far from awful as a rookie, it remains an open question whether he has the talent to be a major league star. Because of his power potential (.202 isolated power in '99), he was a key part of the Gonzalez trade. Kimera Bartee, cf, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 69 13 2 0 0 9 5 0 5 0 19 4 2 .188 .243 .217 .461 4 Prorated Det 81 15 2 0 0 10 5 0 5 0 22 4 2 .185 .233 .210 .442 4 Actual Det 77 15 1 3 0 11 3 0 9 0 20 3 3 .195 .279 .286 .565 6 Despite his speed, Bartee will never hit enough to be anything other than a useful reserve glove in the pasture. Brian Hunter, cf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 639 165 30 5 5 89 41 2 43 0 107 51 14 .258 .306 .344 .650 71 Prorated Det 57 14 2 0 0 7 3 0 3 0 9 4 1 .246 .283 .281 .564 5 Actual Det 55 13 2 1 0 8 0 1 5 0 11 0 3 .236 .311 .309 .621 5 Prorated Sea 486 125 22 3 3 67 31 1 32 0 81 38 10 .257 .303 .333 .637 52 Actual Sea 484 112 11 5 4 71 34 1 32 0 80 44 5 .231 .277 .300 .576 46 Prorated Tot 543 140 25 4 4 75 34 1 36 0 91 43 11 .258 .304 .341 .645 59 Actual Tot 539 125 13 6 4 79 34 2 37 0 91 44 8 .232 .280 .301 .581 50 Hunter wore out his welcome in Detroit when he continued to refuse to take a pitch, earning an early-season trade to Seattle. The Mariners, perennially unable to solve their left field problems, played him every day, but it didn't do anything to improve his inadequate hitting or his pathetic plate discipline. Bobby Higginson, rf/dh, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 574 163 34 3 25 90 89 4 61 3 85 5 4 .284 .355 .484 .839 98 Prorated Det 397 112 23 2 17 62 61 2 42 2 58 3 2 .282 .352 .479 .831 67 Actual Det 377 90 18 0 12 51 46 2 64 2 66 4 6 .239 .351 .382 .733 54 Fan favorite Higginson stopped overachieving and suffered through a terrible year, which ended with his being unable to play the outfield after he returned from the DL in late August. He finally had surgery on his right big toe on September 15; it was a sprain to that toe that disabled him for a month in late July. Detroit tried to trade him last year, but there was no taker at the price the Tigers were asking. Given his injury, Higginson can't be traded until he proves he's healthy and has a reasonable chance of returning to his previous form. If he's not traded in the spring, he'll probably end up as a part-time DH and utility outfielder in 2000. A comeback would be expected if he's healthy, but a return to his 1997-98 form is probably asking too much. Karim Garcia, rf/lf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 82 18 3 1 4 11 13 0 6 1 21 1 1 .220 .270 .427 .696 9 Prorated Det 285 62 10 3 13 38 45 0 20 3 73 3 3 .218 .266 .411 .677 31 Actual Det 288 69 10 3 14 38 32 0 20 1 67 2 4 .240 .288 .441 .729 36 Ex-Detroit manager Sparky Anderson used to have a drawing posted on his office wall, the caption of which went something like this: "Every five minutes the world turns over on top of someone who thought he was sitting on top of it." That aphorism seems to be more and more applicable to Randy Smith, the supposedly genius wheeler-dealer who traded Luis Gonzalez to Arizona for Garcia. (Of course, there are multiple other good reasons aside from that trade.) Detroit had high hopes for Garcia in '99, and everyone thought that acquiring the young and talented outfielder from Arizona for journeyman Luis Gonzalez was a major coup. Garcia marginally improved on his '98 numbers, but not enough to show that he'll ever realize his potential. However, with the departure of center fielder Gabe Kapler, Karim will have a good chance to win the center field job next year. He's certainly young enough and talented enough to grow into a significant contributor, but there's no guarantee that he's mature enough to do so. Luis Polonia, lf/rf/dh, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 71 16 1 0 0 9 4 0 4 0 9 3 2 .225 .267 .239 .506 4 Prorated Det 336 75 4 0 0 42 18 0 18 0 42 14 9 .223 .263 .235 .498 18 Actual Det 333 108 21 8 10 46 32 2 16 0 32 17 9 .324 .357 .526 .882 62 After two years of lighting up pitchers in Mexico (.377 and .381 batting averages in 1997 and 1998, respectively, with line-drive power), Polonia made it back to The Show in '99. Luis surprised everyone except Randy Smith, his mother, and his agent by hitting the cover off the ball in Detroit, earning himself a contract for 2000 with a club option for 2001. At 35, he's not likely to come close to repeating his surprising performance of last year. A valuable reserve? Yes. A good DH? Not bloody likely. Gregg Jefferies, dh/1b/lf, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 637 167 27 2 13 85 66 1 46 7 35 15 6 .262 .311 .372 .683 71 Prorated Det 208 54 8 0 4 27 21 0 15 2 11 4 1 .260 .308 .356 .664 22 Actual Det 205 41 8 0 6 22 18 4 13 1 11 3 4 .200 .258 .327 .585 15 It was bad enough that Anaheim gave Jefferies another chance late in 1998 when he clearly had little left. It was inexcusable that Detroit signed Jefferies to be a designated hitter based on a misleading .347 batting average and .472 slugging average in 19 games with the Angels. Gregg was plain awful with the Bengals in between three stints on the DL for a right elbow contusion and right hamstring problems. Given his injuries, he might be better in 2000, but he's certainly not a good enough hitter to play without a position. Gabe Alvarez, dh/rf/3b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 68 16 4 0 3 8 11 0 6 0 16 0 0 .235 .293 .426 .720 8 Prorated Det 50 11 2 0 2 5 8 0 4 0 11 0 0 .220 .278 .380 .658 5 Actual Det 53 11 3 0 2 5 4 0 3 0 9 0 0 .208 .250 .377 .627 5 Relegated primarily to outfield and designated hitting duty by his own defensive problems at the hot corner and by the acquisition of Palmer, Alvarez spent most of the year in Toledo, where he hit .285 with 21 homers in 410 at-bats. His star, way overrated in the past, is fading fast. Key PitchersThe Tigers had a pitching staff in 1999 that was composed of too many mediocre pitchers. It had no genuine veteran rotation anchor, and all of the top prospects in the system struggled to learn at the big-league level or struggled with injuries. Moehler, Thompson, Greisinger, and Blair all disappointed. Mlicki and Weaver were pleasant surprises, but the former wasn't brilliant and the latter suffered from the effects of a premature promotion. Detroit's starters' ERA was more than a half run above league average (for starting pitching), while its bullpen was a shade below the league norm. Brian Moehler, starter, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 4.34 32 32 11 11 0 199 205 23 57 106 .269 .748 Prorated Det 4.34 33 33 11 11 0 205 212 24 59 109 .269 .748 Actual Det 5.04 32 32 10 16 0 196 229 22 59 106 .294 .788 The scuffballer who had posted a surprising 3.90 ERA in his sophomore year in '98 found life just a bit harder last year. Moehler started off just fine, going 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA in April. In his first start in May, however, he was caught defacing the ball and was ejected and sentenced to a ten-day suspension. Not coincidentally, the reprobate struggled for the rest of the year under the watchful eyes of the men in blue, logging a 5.26 ERA after the first month of the season. Moehler has shown he has both the tools (both baseball-wise and Black-and-Decker-wise) and the savvy to continue to be a rotation starter, but he's probably not going to see ERAs south of 4.00 again. Justin Thompson, starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 3.46 32 32 15 9 0 216 202 16 70 148 .249 .671 Prorated Det 3.46 22 22 10 6 0 151 141 11 49 103 .249 .671 Actual Det 5.11 24 24 9 11 0 143 152 24 59 83 .274 .796 Thompson slumped substantially in '99, probably due to a shoulder injury that wasn't diagnosed until mid-August. He underwent arthroscopic surgery for a torn labrum in his left shoulder in late August and is supposed to be ready to pitch in spring training. However, a longer recovery period is virtually certain, though he stands a good chance of eventually regaining his pre-1999 performance in the future with Texas. Dave Mlicki, starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 4.50 4 4 1 1 0 24 25 3 8 17 .269 .749 Prorated LA 4.50 1 1 0 0 0 8 8 1 3 5 .269 .749 Actual LA 4.91 2 0 0 1 0 7 10 1 2 1 .323 .848 Prorated Det 4.50 33 33 8 8 0 196 204 25 65 139 .269 .749 Actual Det 4.60 31 31 14 12 0 192 209 24 70 119 .276 .781 Prorated Tot 4.50 34 34 8 8 0 204 212 25 68 144 .269 .749 Actual Tot 4.61 33 31 14 13 0 199 219 25 72 120 .278 .783 For years a somewhat underrated hurler, Mlicki broke through in Detroit after being dumped by the supposedly pitching-rich Dodgers in April. Dave was rewarded with a nice multi-year deal after '99 and is expected to be the Tigers' ace in their first few years in Comerica Park. The club had better score a lot of runs for him, though, as most aces don't allow 219 hits in 199 IP and post a 4.61 ERA. In his favor, however, is the fact that he pitched better in the second half (3.91 ERA, 100 H in 99 IP) than in the first (5.31 ERA). Willie Blair, starter/long reliever, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 5.28 32 32 9 12 0 206 226 38 70 109 .280 .821 Prorated Det 5.28 22 22 6 8 0 139 152 26 47 73 .280 .821 Actual Det 6.85 39 16 3 11 0 134 169 29 44 82 .308 .909 Blair has gone 8-27 since his career year in '97 with the Tigers when he posted a deceptive 16-8 record. Arizona imprudently signed him to a lucrative three-year deal after that aberration, and he's been hammered regularly in Phoenix, New York, and again in Detroit since. Willie started 1999 in the rotation but was exiled to middle relief for just cause. Seth Greisinger, starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 5.25 27 27 8 10 0 159 177 23 61 82 .284 .805 After making 21 starts in 1998, Greisinger was expected to take his place in the Detroit rotation in 1999. Instead, he spent the whole season on the DL with a right elbow injury. He had "Tommy John" surgery in mid-June, so he will probably need all of next year to rehab his elbow while trying to regain his velocity. Jeff Weaver, starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Det 5.55 30 29 9 12 0 164 176 27 56 114 .278 .828 A first-round pick in 1998 who was promoted to the big leagues after only six pro games, Weaver hit a lot of highs and too many lows last year. After bursting upon the scene with a one-hit start in five innings in his ML debut, Jeff quickly wowed the fans while frustrating opposing hitters. Unfortunately, the league caught up with the rookie righty with a vengeance in the second half. His monthly ERAs in '99, starting in April and ending in September-October, showed an ugly progression: 2.45, 3.19, 4.41, 8.79, 6.45, 8.28. A reasonable question to ask is why Detroit didn't send Weaver to AAA in the second half rather than let him get pounded almost every time he took the mound. In the long run, he's got great potential, but it's a toss-up whether he can realize it this soon. Dave Borkowski, starter, age 22Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Det 6.10 17 12 2 6 0 77 86 10 40 50 .283 .816 Borkowski graduated from AA in 1998 to AAA and the majors in 1999. An overachiever, he clearly wasn't ready for The Show when promoted at midseason. He has some potential, but he could easily need more seasoning at AAA. Nelson Cruz, swing man, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 6.61 3 3 1 1 0 16 23 4 7 12 .338 1.006 Prorated Det 6.61 11 11 4 4 0 62 87 15 26 45 .338 1.006 Actual Det 5.67 29 6 2 5 0 67 74 11 23 46 .281 .801 Cruz is a veteran minor leaguer who spent the last two thirds of the '99 season with Detroit after ten impressive starts in AAA Toledo. He was out of baseball for three full years after being released by Montreal in spring training, 1992. Either he is a late bloomer or, more likely, he was able to fool AAA hitters by virtue of his relatively advanced age. C. J. Nitkowski, middle reliever, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 5.12 40 0 3 4 0 65 76 8 32 52 .293 .835 Prorated Det 5.12 47 0 3 5 0 76 88 9 37 60 .293 .835 Actual Det 4.30 68 7 4 5 0 82 63 11 45 66 .213 .677 Once considered a top prospect, mostly because he was a college star who ended up as a first-round draft pick by a desperate team, Nitkowski has settled into a comfortable role as a middle reliever. To be sure, he's better than the standard-issue designated bullpen lefty and was very effective in seven late-season starts for Detroit (3.86 ERA, two homers and 29 hits in 37.1 innings). Nitkowski was equally effective against righties last year, a departure from his previous pattern. After two good years, he looks like he's found his level and his niche. He's not so good that he can't relapse into his previous level, but his age and track record indicate he should be productive for several years at a stable level of performance. Masao Kida, middle reliever, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 5.59 5 5 2 2 0 29 35 4 11 19 .302 .847 Prorated Det 5.59 11 11 4 4 0 65 79 9 25 43 .302 .847 Actual Det 6.26 49 0 1 0 1 65 73 6 30 50 .289 .810 Think major league teams don't play follow-the-leader? Kida is proof that they do, spending his first undistinguished year in the majors with Detroit after ten years in the majors in Japan. Detroit signed him with some fanfare in November 1998 as big-league teams were rushing to ink Pacific Rim pitchers before someone else locked them up. The Detroit Postseason Media Guide says that he is "the eighth Japanese citizen with pro experience in Japan to play for a major league team." Whew! Kida is signed through 2001 and will get many more opportunities. Although he should improve somewhat with experience, there isn't much of an upside. He wasn't that good over there; at his age, he isn't going to make an impact over here. Curiously, in the second year of his pro career, Masao spent all of 1988 in the Florida State League as part of a goodwill player exchange with the Yomiuri Giants. Matt Anderson, middle reliever , age 22Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 3.27 70 0 5 2 7 72 60 5 45 71 .228 .695 Prorated Det 3.27 40 0 3 1 4 41 34 3 26 41 .228 .695 Actual Det 5.68 37 0 2 1 0 38 33 8 35 32 .232 .827 After 42 games as a rookie in '98, when he went 5-1 with a 3.27 ERA and fanned a hitter per inning, Matt slid backward last year. Despite his 100 mph fastball, Anderson was unable to find the plate and spent the middle of the season in AAA Toledo looking for it. Detroit management is quite unhappy with his inability to date to learn how to pitch, but he's still got closer-of-the-future stamped all over his passport. The fact that opposing ML hitters batted a meek .232 against him confirms that the biggest problem the talented young righty faces is himself. Bryce Florie, middle reliever, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 4.20 27 27 8 8 0 163 162 15 70 118 .263 .745 Prorated Det 4.20 9 9 3 3 0 54 54 5 23 39 .263 .745 Actual Det 4.56 27 3 2 1 0 51 61 6 20 40 .292 .776 Prorated Bos 4.20 5 5 2 2 0 31 31 3 13 23 .263 .745 Actual Bos 4.80 14 2 2 0 0 30 33 2 15 25 .282 .733 Prorated Tot 4.20 14 14 4 4 0 85 85 8 37 62 .263 .745 Actual Tot 4.65 41 5 4 1 0 81 94 8 35 65 .288 .761 Florie is a perfectly serviceable middle reliever and spot starter. He was dealt to Boston in a July 31 trading deadline deal for young minor league lefty Mike Maroth, who ended the year in AA. Maroth was a third-round pick in the '98 draft. Francisco Cordero, reliever, age 21Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Det 3.32 20 0 2 2 0 19 19 2 18 19 .284 .878 Cordero throws extremely hard and is a bona fide potential ML closer. He was spectacular in AA Jacksonville in '99, saving 27 games in 47 appearances while fanning 58 in 52.1 innings and posting a 1.38 ERA, earning Howe Sportsdata's Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year honors. Francisco was considered a comer after his superb performance in the Midwest League in '97, but he missed most of '98 with a stress fracture in his right elbow. There are good analysts around who believe that Detroit would have been better off sending closer-of-the-future Matt Anderson to Texas and keeping Cordero instead. Will Brunson, reliever, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 6.06 25 0 1 1 0 16 21 3 8 13 .318 .945 Prorated Det 6.06 19 0 1 1 0 13 16 2 6 10 .318 .945 Actual Det 6.00 17 0 1 0 0 12 18 3 6 9 .367 1.054 Brunson spent most of 1999 in AAA Toledo, but spent two months in Detroit starting in late May. Detroit thought so little of him that he wasn't even given a second look in September. Sean Runyan, reliever, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 3.78 70 0 3 2 1 48 46 6 25 38 .256 .760 Prorated Det 3.78 15 0 1 0 0 10 10 1 5 8 .256 .760 Actual Det 3.38 12 0 0 1 0 11 9 2 3 6 .237 .717 After leading the AL in appearances in 1998 with 88, Runyan's left shoulder broke down last year. He went on the DL in early May, then underwent arthroscopic surgery in July. Felipe Lira, reliever, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 5.56 23 0 2 3 0 45 54 7 19 28 .297 .847 Prorated Det 5.56 2 0 0 0 0 4 5 1 2 3 .297 .847 Actual Det 10.80 2 0 0 0 0 3 7 2 2 3 .389 1.228 Lira has always been an enigma. He had great numbers in the minors at a very young age, but big league hitters have hit him early and often throughout his career. Essentially, he has enough stuff and moxie to earn repeated trials, but not enough stuff to fool disciplined ML hitters. He spent most of 1999 in AAA Toledo. Doug Brocail, setup man, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 3.49 53 0 4 2 0 57 54 6 20 45 .254 .715 Prorated Det 3.49 72 0 5 3 0 77 74 8 27 61 .254 .715 Actual Det 2.52 70 0 4 4 2 82 60 7 25 78 .206 .586 Brocail has become a very good setup pitcher in his 30s and had his best year in 1999. He's got enough stuff to continue at this level, but he's not going to graduate to closing except in an emergency. Todd Jones, closer, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Det 3.33 70 0 4 6 31 73 68 7 37 63 .250 .710 Prorated Det 3.33 64 0 4 5 28 67 62 6 34 57 .250 .710 Actual Det 3.80 65 0 4 4 30 66 64 7 35 64 .259 .753 Jones is a durable and decent big-league closer, but far from a superior one. Detroit would like nothing better than to have Matt Anderson mature into the closer's role and to cash in by trading Jones during one of his hot streaks for something else the team really needs. Todd was on the mound for the last out at Tiger Stadium, fanning the Royals' Carlos Beltran on September 27 to end 88 years of baseball at the storied ballpark. OutlookWith a very expensive -- both in terms of salary and the talent needed to acquire him -- two-time AL MVP in the middle of their lineup, the Tigers will be expected to be more than respectable this year. Overtaking Cleveland is a dream, of course, but anything less than a good, exciting team with strong indications for future improvement will likely cost Smith his job. With a brand-new ballpark generating tons of extra revenue for the franchise in 2000 and beyond, Detroit will no longer have the excuse it used for most of the previous decade: that it is a struggling small-market team which can't compete with the big spenders in New York and elsewhere. Texas was plenty happy to get rid of Gonzo, who wore out his welcome there with his prima donna attitude and behavior in the past year. A banner year from Gonzalez would go a long way toward bringing Detroit back into contention for the Wild Card. But it won't solve the team's on-base shortage, never mind its other problems. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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