Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Florida Marlins By Jon Dunkle This article takes a look at how the Florida Marlins did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 621 691 Runs allowed 777 852 Run Margin -156 -161 Wins 66 64 Pythagorean wins 63 64 Placement 5th 5th The end result wasn't surprising, but the personnel who did it were. The Marlins finished last in the National League East again despite an almost total revamping of the roster. Only three players originally projected to have 300 at bats with the Marlins last season actually saw that amount of playing time and the pitching staff was also reshuffled. Unfortunately for Marlins fans, the youth movement for 2000 may well be different from that of 1999. The Marlins could start the season with no one on the 25-man roster having reached age 30. General Manager Dave Dombrowski is known for his keen eye for young talent, but many of the youngsters who have been acquired in trades since their 1997 World Championship are still developing in the farm system. And few players who took the field for the major league squad in 1999 stood out as being the type of player a rebuilding franchise would use as a foundation to build around. The Marlins management seems to agree as their leader in wins for the past two seasons, Brian Meadows, has been dealt, along with veteran starter Dennis Springer, starting leftfielder Bruce Aven, and former outfield prospect Todd Dunwoody, among others. Who the Marlins of the future will be is an interesting and uncertain question. With Dombrowski's ability to identify talent, it is likely that Florida will be able to produce several major league players of star quality. Whether the purse strings will be loosened to retain those players once they develop will determine the Marlins' future. Will Florida denizens get witness the Marlins in another World Series or will the Fish follow the path of Dombrowski's old team, the Expos, and become a farm team for the rest of the major leagues? Key Position PlayersIf you're going to start looking for the future of the Marlins, your best bet will be to stand on the pitcher's mound and look out toward centerfield. In your line of vision, you'll see a couple of middle infielders with potential in Alex Gonzalez and Luis Castillo. And out there roaming the outfield is Rookie of the Year candidate Preston Wilson. While none of this trio has Superstar of Tomorrow written across his forehead, they did show enough to likely be the core of a 2000 lineup that will bring a different look to many of the other positions. [TT: While the Marlins exceeded their projected run total by 70, it wouldn't be accurate to say they were much better than expected. NL scoring was way up, with average team plating 65 more runs than the year before. Despite the extra 70 runs, Florida dropped from 13th to last in scoring.] Mike Redmond, c, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 131 34 8 0 2 10 12 3 3 1 14 0 0 .260 .290 .366 .656 12 Prorated Flo 258 67 15 0 3 19 23 5 5 1 27 0 0 .260 .286 .353 .639 23 Actual Flo 242 73 9 0 1 22 27 5 26 2 34 0 0 .302 .381 .351 .732 33 Redmond was originally supposed to platoon with the since-traded Jorge Fabregas. The trade was largely facilitated by Redmond's ability to hit and Fabregas' failure to do so. Redmond has now hit .300 over parts of two major league seasons, a total of 360 at bats, and he has shown an ability to hit right-handed pitching as well as left. He will likely be the primary catcher in 2000. Jorge Fabregas, c, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 454 105 10 1 6 31 51 2 28 2 64 0 1 .231 .276 .297 .573 36 Prorated Flo 237 55 5 0 3 16 26 1 14 1 33 0 0 .232 .275 .291 .566 18 Actual Flo 223 46 10 2 3 20 21 2 26 6 27 0 0 .206 .289 .309 .598 20 Prorated Atl 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .143 .143 .143 .286 0 Actual Atl 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 Prorated Tot 245 56 5 0 3 16 27 1 15 1 34 0 0 .229 .273 .286 .558 18 Actual Tot 231 46 10 2 3 20 21 2 26 6 27 0 0 .199 .280 .299 .579 19 Fabregas, the left-handed hitting catcher, hit .190 against right-handed pitchers in 1999. Redmond, the right-handed hitting catcher, hit .300. So much for the platoon advantage and so much for Fabregas' stay with the Marlins. Atlanta picked him up after he was released from the Marlins as security while Javy Lopez was injured. Ramon Castro, c, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Flo 67 12 4 0 2 4 4 0 10 3 14 0 0 .179 .282 .328 .610 7 Unspectacular at the plate, Castro has a strong arm and should do well backing up Redmond in 2000. John Roskos, c, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 68 16 4 0 1 6 8 0 6 0 14 0 0 .235 .293 .338 .632 7 Prorated Flo 11 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 .182 .250 .182 .432 1 Actual Flo 12 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 7 0 0 .167 .231 .333 .564 1 A catcher in name only, Roskos was used as a pinch hitter in 12 of the 13 games he played as he is weak defensively. Roskos has benefited from playing in minor league parks where his stats have been inflated. He has good doubles power but is now a mere 3 for 22 lifetime in the majors. Without a position, he will not get a chance to show if he can improve on those numbers. Derrek Lee, 1b, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 593 143 34 1 21 84 84 7 62 2 156 10 3 .241 .319 .408 .727 78 Prorated Flo 210 50 12 0 7 29 29 2 22 0 55 3 1 .238 .315 .395 .710 27 Actual Flo 218 45 9 1 5 21 20 0 17 1 70 2 1 .206 .263 .326 .588 19 If he were a slick fielding shortstop, Lee's offensive numbers might be acceptable. For a hulking first baseman, they do not merit a spot in a major league lineup. The Marlins realized that and sent him to AAA in mid-season. While he was there, he socked 19 homers in a hitter-friendly park, but there is nothing in his major league record to indicate that Lee can be a successful major leaguer. Kevin Millar, 1b, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 67 18 4 0 2 9 12 1 6 1 7 0 0 .269 .333 .418 .751 9 Prorated Flo 363 97 21 0 10 48 65 5 32 5 37 0 0 .267 .331 .408 .739 48 Actual Flo 351 100 17 4 9 48 67 7 40 2 64 1 0 .285 .362 .433 .795 58 When Lee was sent down, Millar became the first baseman. Millar has been a stellar minor league hitter, with a career average of over .300. He is a selective hitter and also has some power. He won't hurt the Marlins as a regular, but at his age, he isn't the kind of player who can be counted on to be a force down the road. Luis Castillo, 2b, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 228 56 6 1 0 32 9 0 32 0 43 17 6 .246 .338 .281 .619 25 Prorated Flo 489 120 12 2 0 68 19 0 68 0 92 36 12 .245 .338 .278 .616 53 Actual Flo 487 147 23 4 0 76 28 0 67 0 85 50 17 .302 .384 .366 .750 78 What happened? Entering this season, Castillo had hit .236 in parts of three major league seasons with declining averages each year. He had hit well in the minors but was never able to translate it into major league success. At least part of the reason is conditioning and physical development. When Castillo first reached the majors, he weighed all of 155 pounds. He now tilts the scales at 175. The switch-hitter is a slap hitter who relies on his speed a lot for success. The extra bulk helped him shoot some more balls through the infield and also resulted in 27 extra base hits, his highest total for any professional season. Castillo's conditioning skills will be called to task this offseason. He had surgery to repair a dislocated left shoulder in September. It marks the third time he has dislocated that shoulder since he has turned professional and the third time he has had surgery on it. Castillo has some work to do on his game. Defensively, he still plays like an inexperienced player. He was second in the National League in errors and did not show the range of a lot of his peers. He has yet to learn how to steal bases without relying purely on his speed. His judgement on when to take bases has resulted in being benched in the past. Amaury Garcia, 2b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Flo 24 6 0 1 2 6 2 0 3 0 11 0 0 .250 .333 .583 .917 5 Garcia has some major league caliber tools. He has a lot of speed and fields his position pretty well. He also has a bit of pop in has bat. While he is unlikely to keep his 1 HR for every 12 at bats pace up and turn 2000 into a Sosa/McGwire/Garcia home run contest, he has a good chance of making a contribution at the major league level, particularly if Castillo has not recovered by spring training. Mike Lowell, 3b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 518 132 27 0 25 68 82 6 33 2 74 4 1 .255 .303 .452 .755 70 Prorated Flo 315 80 16 0 15 41 49 3 20 1 45 2 0 .254 .301 .448 .749 42 Actual Flo 308 78 15 0 12 32 47 5 26 1 69 0 0 .253 .317 .419 .736 41 The former Yankee prospect overcame testicular cancer in 1999 and showed no signs of it slowing his progress. He performed about as exactly as projected and will have the opportunity to start every day in 2000. Kevin Orie, 3b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 92 23 6 1 3 12 11 2 9 1 14 1 0 .250 .327 .435 .762 13 Prorated Flo 233 58 15 2 7 30 27 5 22 2 35 2 0 .249 .324 .421 .745 32 Actual Flo 240 61 16 0 6 26 29 3 22 1 43 1 0 .254 .322 .396 .718 30 With Lowell out early on, the Marlins needed someone to play third. Orie played pretty well, offensively providing what was expected but playing extremely well in the field. Despite already being traded once this offseason, he is in demand by teams looking for someone to provide assistance in case a young prospect falters. Alex Gonzalez, ss, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 543 115 20 8 10 67 51 7 28 3 111 3 4 .212 .259 .333 .592 46 Prorated Flo 544 115 20 8 10 67 51 7 28 3 111 3 4 .211 .258 .333 .591 46 Actual Flo 560 155 28 8 14 81 59 12 15 0 113 3 5 .277 .308 .430 .739 70 Here's a guy who is a bit of a mystery. He was rushed through the Marlins system, playing a grand total of 84 games at the rookie or A level, despite not being even 20 years of age at the time. He put in a nice season at AAA in 1998 before being promoted to the majors and being absolutely overwhelmed, striking out 30 times against 13 hits in 86 at bats. But shortstop incumbent Edgar Renteria was traded to the Cardinals in the offseason and Gonzalez was named the starter. Soon after, Marlins brass began talking about his supposed superior defensive skills. Gonzalez did not play the Gold Glove caliber defense people talked about. He was 2nd in the N.L. in errors and while he did make some stellar plays, he was below average in getting to balls. His hitting statistics during 1999 were very similar to those he posted at AAA in 1998. Strikeouts and a lack of walks continued to be problems for Gonzalez. The reasons behind his difficulties may stem from attitude. Twice during the season he was benched for not running out ground balls. If Gonzalez strives to improve, he might well turn into a star player. As it stands, his track record is too uncertain to say what his future might hold. Dave Berg, ss, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 79 21 4 1 1 9 8 0 8 0 15 2 1 .266 .330 .380 .709 10 Prorated Flo 294 78 14 3 3 33 29 0 29 0 56 7 3 .265 .328 .364 .692 37 Actual Flo 304 87 18 1 3 42 25 2 27 0 59 2 2 .286 .348 .382 .730 40 A useful utility player and a pretty good hitter. He played second, short, and third last year as well as making a few appearances in leftfield. He is a better defensive player up the middle than at the corners. Bruce Aven, lf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 83 21 5 0 3 13 13 2 7 0 18 2 1 .253 .323 .422 .744 11 Prorated Flo 392 99 23 0 14 61 61 9 33 0 85 9 4 .253 .322 .418 .740 53 Actual Flo 381 110 19 2 12 57 70 9 44 1 82 3 0 .289 .370 .444 .814 67 Aven played left during Floyd's injury problems. His performance was hard to predict as he missed virtually all of 1998 with an injury. The speed component of his game seems to have vanished and without it, he is at best a fourth or fifth outfielder. He hit very well in the first half (.326, 47 RBI, .508 slugging) but dropped off significantly in the second half (.253, 23 RBI, .381 slugging). He was traded for outfielder Brant Brown in the offseason. Cliff Floyd, lf, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 489 132 33 3 17 69 72 4 45 4 97 21 10 .270 .335 .454 .789 74 Prorated Flo 257 69 17 1 8 36 37 2 23 2 51 11 5 .268 .332 .436 .768 37 Actual Flo 251 76 19 1 11 37 49 2 30 5 47 5 6 .303 .379 .518 .897 46 Floyd spend three months on the disabled list with assorted leg and lower back miseries. When he did play, he looked very good, driving the ball well and getting some extra bases despite the leg problems. Although Floyd is entering his eighth big league season, he has only had 400 plate appearances once. His hamstring problems can now be labeled as chronic and despite only being 26, his body has a lot of wear. Another mystery with which the Marlins must deal. Todd Dunwoody, cf, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 627 162 30 10 12 81 62 8 40 1 172 18 4 .258 .311 .396 .706 78 Prorated Flo 184 47 8 2 3 23 18 2 11 0 50 5 1 .255 .305 .370 .674 21 Actual Flo 186 41 6 3 2 20 20 1 12 0 41 3 4 .220 .270 .317 .587 16 This one-time hot prospect began the season as the starting centerfielder, but didn't hit and was pushed out of the job and off the roster by Preston Wilson. After returning from AAA, he broke his thumb and was dealt in the offseason to the Royals for a guy who, at age 27, spent his third straight season at AA. Dunwoody has shown no plate discipline, and at this point in his career, it may be too late for him to start. Preston Wilson, cf, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 189 41 11 1 8 26 28 1 13 0 62 4 2 .217 .268 .413 .681 21 Prorated Flo 498 108 28 2 21 68 73 2 34 0 163 10 5 .217 .267 .408 .675 54 Actual Flo 482 135 21 4 26 67 71 9 46 3 156 11 4 .280 .350 .502 .852 83 I remember watching this guy in many games at A ball in 1994 and wondering why, with the exception of the fact that he is related in some fashion to Mookie Wilson, this guy was considered a future major leaguer. He had some pop in his bat back then, swiped about a dozen bases, rarely walked, and struck out over once a game. He also wasn't much of a fielder, yet still played in center for some reason. Here we are five years later and you know what...? He's still related to Mookie, he still has some pop, he swiped about a dozen bases, he did not walk much, he struck out over once a game, and he played a pretty poor outfield yet for some reason patrolled out there in center. Sure, he received consideration for Rookie of the Year, but this was a terribly weak rookie class in the NL. Wilson does not have bona fide major league skills and long-term, I see him facing the same problems and having the same results a former South Atlantic League opponent and much more talented centerfielder has had -- Ruben Rivera. Mark Kotsay, rf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 568 153 23 5 10 75 66 0 43 2 61 12 5 .269 .319 .380 .699 67 Prorated Flo 490 132 19 4 8 64 56 0 37 1 52 10 4 .269 .319 .373 .693 57 Actual Flo 495 134 23 9 8 57 50 0 29 5 50 7 6 .271 .306 .402 .708 59 Forget Larry Walker, Mark Kotsay is the best defensive right fielder in the major leagues. And he's a decade younger than Walker. He's more like Todd Walker at the plate but he may be improving. From July 1st to the end of the season, he hit .295. And like virtually all of his Marlin teammates, if he learns to take a walk, he will be all the better. Danny Bautista, rf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Flo 205 59 10 1 5 32 24 1 4 0 30 3 0 .288 .303 .420 .723 25 Bautista received a lot more playing time than you would expect from someone with his history. Previously a reserve outfielder with the Tigers and Braves, Bautista started 47 games in the outfield with the majority in right. He posted the best numbers of his career and will likely continue his career as a reserve outfielder. Key PitchersThe roster shakeup has not been limited to the non-pitchers. In the case of the pitchers, the movement is much more warranted. Closer Matt Mantei, possibly the sole remaining player of star caliber, was dealt mid-season to the Diamondbacks. Youngster Vladimir Nunez was received in exchange and became a regular part of the rotation. At the end of the year, the Marlins' winningest pitcher for the last two seasons, Brian Meadows was traded away for reliever Dan Miceli. Dennis Springer also departed. Alex Fernandez and Miceli will provide verteran leadership to what may be the youngest pitching staff in the league next season. Ryan Dempster, starter, age 22ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Flo 5.68 4 4 1 1 0 19 21 2 10 12 .284 .798 Prorated Flo 5.68 30 30 8 8 0 144 159 15 76 91 .284 .798 Actual Flo 4.71 25 25 7 8 0 147 146 21 93 126 .262 .800 Dempster had a horrible July, going 0-3 with a 10.88 ERA and averaging less than five innings a start. Take away that month and his 3.51 ERA is one of the best in the National League. His 4.71 ERA is lower than would be expected based on the amount of walks and extra base hits he gave up. Nonetheless, Dempster is a good power pitcher who has pitched surprisingly well for his age and what he has supporting him. With a little help and experience, he may develop into a top-notch pitcher. Alex Fernandez, starter, age 29ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Flo 3.53 32 32 13 10 0 219 195 25 61 186 .238 .685 Prorated Flo 3.53 21 21 9 7 0 144 128 16 40 122 .238 .685 Actual Flo 3.38 24 24 7 8 0 141 135 10 41 91 .252 .689 Look at the numbers above and imagine what they would be like if his shoulder wasn't a wreck. Fernandez had rotator cuff surgery in 1998 and made his much ballyhooed return in 1999. He had pain at the start and was put on the disabled list. He returned to the DL later with groin problems and then required additional rest and cortisone for his shoulder. His season ended in early September and he underwent surgery again to treat the shoulder. Brian Meadows, starter, age 23ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Flo 5.44 32 32 8 14 0 189 239 22 51 96 .312 .819 Prorated Flo 5.44 31 31 8 13 0 180 228 21 49 92 .312 .819 Actual Flo 5.60 31 31 11 15 0 178 214 31 57 72 .302 .859 He's 23 years old on a team in the midst of a youth movement and is one of just 42 pitchers in the majors to start 30 or more games in each of the last two seasons. He has more wins than any other Marlin the last two years. So why was Brian Meadows traded for a setup reliever? Primarily because he has shown no signs of being able to get people
out. The numbers he allowed last season were almost identical to the batting
statistics of the White Sox Magglio Ordonez. When everyone you face hits
like Ordonez, success is not right around the corner. Furthermore, there
were no signs of improvement during the season. In the second half, Meadows
walked more batters than he struck out.
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