Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Houston Astros By Gary Gillette This article takes a look at how the Houston did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 829 823 Runs allowed 733 675 Run Margin 96 148 Wins 93 97 Pythagorean wins 91 97 Placement 1st 1st After 35 years of what fans have come to accept as major league baseball -- even though it was a revolutionary development at the time to play baseball indoors on a plastic carpet -- the Astrodome closed at the end of the 1999 season. The last season in the Astrodome also marked the end of an era for the franchise as well, as the Astros will now face greatly increased expectations for the future. Although they came very close to the World Series in two of the most memorable League Championship Series ever, the Astros have never made it to the Fall Classic. Now, after winning their division for each of the last three years, and with a state-of-the-art new ballpark set to generate beaucoup bucks for the team treasury, anything short of being on the field when the last out of the 2000 season is made will be viewed as a disappointment. The incredible failure of Biggio and Bagwell to hit a lick in the postseason for the third straight year left Houston feeling unfulfilled at the end of 1999. Keeping things in perspective, however, most teams would still like to be in the Astros' shoes. If the team's key young pitchers and young sluggers develop, Houston could become a success story in the next few years much like Cleveland did in the mid-1990s. Key Position PlayersLogically, of course, one can view Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, the remaining pair of Killer B's, as the key players on the team. As evidenced by Houston's quick exits from the last three postseasons, when Biggio and Bagwell don't hit, the team isn't going anywhere. However, the durability and sustained excellence of these two superstars is about as reliable as things get in the Grand Old Game, making the performances of other, merely mortal, players key to the team's success. Houston's attack fell from first in the NL in 1998 to the middle of the pack last year. Even that mediocrity was an impressive achievement given the epidemic of injuries, both serious and nagging, to virtually every player except Biggio and Bagwell. Tony Eusebio, c, age 32 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 88 21 2 0 0 6 14 1 9 1 14 0 0 .239 .313 .261 .574 7 Prorated Hou 322 77 7 0 0 22 51 3 33 3 51 0 0 .239 .313 .261 .574 26 Actual Hou 323 88 15 0 4 31 33 0 40 4 67 0 0 .272 .353 .356 .709 40 Eusebio had his best season since 1995, stepping into the gap created when Meluskey went down with a season-ending injury early in the year. He was far more effective against lefties (.333 BA, .418 OBA, .487 SA) than against righties (.238, .314, .282). Defensively, he held enemy runners to a below-average theft rate. Tony is clearly a useful platoon player and reserve backstop, but not a good regular. Even with his surprising production, he was still well below the NL average for catcher (.755 OPS). Paul Bako, c, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 69 17 3 0 1 6 7 0 5 1 17 0 0 .246 .293 .333 .627 7 Prorated Hou 227 55 9 0 3 19 23 0 16 3 55 0 0 .242 .289 .322 .610 21 Actual Hou 215 55 14 1 2 16 17 0 26 3 57 1 1 .256 .332 .358 .690 27 Bako came out of nowhere in '98 with Detroit at age 26 and was traded to Houston in the seven-player Brad Ausmus deal in January last year. Combining with Eusebio, Bako helped the Astros survive the loss of their projected regular, Mitch Meluskey. Paul is a tolerable reserve catcher and platoon player (.264 BA, .339 OBA, .365 SA vs. RHP, only 18 at-bats vs. LHP), but is weaker overall offensively than Eusebio. He was effective against enemy baserunners, allowing only 65% of basestealers to steal successfully, five percentage points below the NL average. Mitch Meluskey, c, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 457 134 41 0 15 71 68 3 73 9 74 2 1 .293 .390 .481 .872 86 Prorated Hou 32 9 2 0 1 5 4 0 5 0 5 0 0 .281 .378 .438 .816 5 Actual Hou 33 7 1 0 1 4 3 0 5 1 6 1 0 .212 .316 .333 .649 4 Expected by many to become the team's regular receiver after the trade of Brad Ausmus and after he hit .353 and slugged .584 at AAA New Orleans in '98, Meluskey suffered through a lost season. Mitch didn't win the starting job in the spring, then played poorly before going on the DL in late April due to looseness in his throwing shoulder resulting from a batting practice injury. He underwent season-ending surgery in mid-May to tighten ligaments in that shoulder. Jeff Bagwell, 1b, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 520 147 34 1 32 107 108 9 109 16 93 21 7 .283 .412 .537 .949 123 Prorated Hou 589 166 38 1 36 121 122 10 123 18 105 23 7 .282 .411 .533 .944 138 Actual Hou 562 171 35 0 42 143 126 11 149 16 127 30 11 .304 .454 .591 1.045 161 One of the truly great hitters of our time, Bagwell upped his on-base and slugging averages in '99 in the year of the big offense, just like many other less talented hitters. Bags led the NL in runs last year and set several Houston career offensive records. He has now played in all 162 of Houston's games for three of the last four years: the only exception being in '98, when he played in 148 games. Jeff also ran effectively again, stealing 30 bases for the second time in his career. Even better, he ran at a 73% clip, which is also his career success rate. Indicative both of his plate discipline and the of the fear he instills in opposing pitchers and managers, Bagwell tied the ML record with six walks (including two intentional passes) in one game last Aug. 20 at Florida. Jack Howell, ph/1b/3b, age 37AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 69 16 4 0 3 8 12 0 5 0 16 0 0 .232 .280 .420 .700 8 Prorated Hou 37 8 2 0 1 4 6 0 2 0 8 0 0 .216 .256 .351 .608 3 Actual Hou 33 7 2 0 1 2 1 0 8 0 9 0 0 .212 .366 .364 .729 5 Used primarily as a pinch hitter last season -- who needs backup at first when you've got Bagwell? -- Howell spent most of the year on the DL. Jack missed one month due to pulled right groin muscle in late May. He went down for the count in mid-season after rupturing a sheath tendon and undergoing surgery. Craig Biggio, 2b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 592 175 37 1 17 117 74 25 67 5 94 40 8 .296 .387 .448 .835 114 Prorated Hou 640 189 40 1 18 126 80 27 72 5 101 43 8 .295 .387 .445 .832 122 Actual Hou 639 188 56 0 16 123 73 11 88 9 107 28 14 .294 .386 .457 .843 120 Except for being bothered by sore feet for much of the year, which dramatically diminished his basestealing (28 SB at a 67% rate vs. 50 SB at an 86% rate in '98), Biggio had another classic Biggio year. With his 56 doubles, Craig was the first to hit that many since George Kell in 1950 and became only the sixth player in ML history to hit 50 or more two-baggers in back-to-back seasons. Craig has missed only eight games in the last six seasons combined, and there haven't been very many more productive, durable, and likable pair of teammates than Biggio and Bagwell in the long and glorious history of the National Pastime. If baseball were still king as it was in the 1950s, Biggio and Bagwell would have been celebrated in several popular songs by now. Tim Bogar, ss/3b, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 75 14 3 0 1 8 6 1 6 1 15 1 1 .187 .253 .267 .520 5 Prorated Hou 316 59 12 0 4 33 25 4 25 4 63 4 4 .187 .252 .263 .515 21 Actual Hou 309 74 16 2 4 44 31 4 38 5 52 3 5 .239 .328 .343 .671 34 Bogar posted career highs in most playing-time categories in '99, returning to his valuable utility infielder form after another bad season in '98. Tim has an odd on-off pattern offensively, especially for a guy with no power; take a look at his career batting averages year-by-year: .244 in '93, .154 in '94, .290 in '95, .213 in '96, .249 in '97, .154 in '98, and .239 in '99, with corresponding dips in his "slugging" and on-base averages. Last year was close to his career average except for a higher OBA. Of course, the real value in a utility infielder like Bogar is his glove, and he displayed well above-average range at both short, where he spent most of his time, and third (only 12 games) in '99. Ricky Gutierrez, ss, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 526 131 23 3 3 57 48 6 49 5 85 12 6 .249 .317 .321 .639 52 Prorated Hou 277 69 12 1 1 30 25 3 25 2 44 6 3 .249 .316 .310 .626 26 Actual Hou 268 70 7 5 1 33 25 2 37 4 45 2 5 .261 .354 .336 .690 31 Gutierrez missed half of the season due to two stints on the DL, with a fractured left hand each time. He was signed to a two-year contract as a free agent by the Cubs in late December. Ricky hit .261 for the third consecutive year in '99, bringing his career batting average to .260; his on-base last year was 17 points above his career norm, though his slugging was only two points higher. Range-wise, Gutierrez was below average. Ken Caminiti, 3b, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 529 143 38 0 29 102 101 4 85 8 111 8 3 .270 .370 .507 .877 104 Prorated Hou 277 75 19 0 15 53 52 2 44 4 58 4 1 .271 .370 .502 .872 54 Actual Hou 273 78 11 1 13 45 56 3 46 3 58 6 2 .286 .386 .476 .862 53 Returning to Houston as a free agent after his career years in San Diego for much less money than he could have gotten elsewhere, Caminiti wasn't nearly the force in the Astros' lineup that both he and the team expected. He missed 79 games in the middle of the season due to a strained right calf muscle and played poorly upon his return. Defensively, his range was about average for the position, indicating that the back problems that had debilitated and embarrassed him in the 1998 World Series were behind him. Fortunately, Cammer caught fire in September-October, hitting .322 with seven homers and 27 RBIs down the stretch as Houston outlasted Cincinnati and New York to make the postseason. His overall offense has shown a marked superiority in the second half since he played in San Diego. Still, it was the first season since 1988 that Ken hasn't played in at least 130 games (excluding 1994, when he played in 111 during the strike season). Given his all-out style of play and frequent injuries -- even with his famously high threshold for playing with pain -- Caminiti remains a big question mark for the team for 2000. Houston has an option on his contract for 2001 as well. Bill Spiers, 3b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 86 24 6 1 1 14 11 1 14 1 12 3 1 .279 .386 .407 .793 14 Prorated Hou 378 105 26 4 4 61 48 4 61 4 52 13 4 .278 .384 .399 .783 62 Actual Hou 393 113 18 5 4 56 39 0 47 2 45 10 5 .288 .363 .389 .752 56 Spiers spent more time at the hot corner than expected last year due to Caminiti's injury, where he has plus range. Bill also played a substantial amount of time in the pasture for the first time in his career; in fact, the only positions he didn't play in '99 were pitcher and catcher. Offensively, he performed as expected, hitting for a decent average with a good on-base and little power. In one of the more bizarre incidents of the year, Spiers was attacked by a fan while playing right field in Milwaukee on Sept. 24. Houston signed him for 2000 with a club option for 2001 during the '99 season. Russ Johnson, 3b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 66 17 3 0 1 11 7 0 9 0 10 1 1 .258 .347 .348 .695 8 Prorated Hou 161 41 7 0 2 26 17 0 21 0 24 2 2 .255 .341 .335 .676 19 Actual Hou 156 44 10 0 5 24 23 0 20 0 31 2 3 .282 .358 .442 .800 25 Despite being considered a prospect by many around the game, Johnson is getting a little long in the tooth to be talking about his potential as opposed to his performance. He hit decently with surprising power in his limited duty in Houston in '99, but his spot at third is blocked by Caminiti. A good fielder at the corner, Russ also was pressed into service at second base last year and acquitted himself well in 15 games (seven starts) there. A utility infield role would be his best usage in the majors. Moises Alou, lf, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 90 25 5 1 4 15 18 1 10 1 14 1 1 .278 .353 .489 .842 15 Alou injured his left knee in the off-season and missed the whole year after surgery to repair his ACL. His absence clearly hurt the team, as manager Larry Dierker used 12 players (six of whom played 20 or more games) in left during the season. Moises has come back from worse injuries before, but this one could rob him of his remaining speed and hamper him defensively. Richard Hidalgo, lf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 470 126 33 2 11 59 67 7 27 2 65 6 6 .268 .313 .417 .730 58 Prorated Hou 412 110 28 1 9 51 58 6 23 1 57 5 5 .267 .311 .405 .716 49 Actual Hou 383 87 25 2 15 49 56 4 56 2 73 8 5 .227 .328 .420 .748 56 Hidalgo struggled in left as Alou's replacement before he too went down for the season with a left knee problem in mid-August. Richard had plus range in left and center despite an inflamed knee that bothered him all year. Though Hidalgo's batting average plummeted 76 points from 1998, his on-base and slugging didn't dip nearly so much. Still young enough and talented enough to be a quality regular, Hidalgo may have trouble finding playing time in '99 in the Astros' outfield if Alou returns healthy. Daryle Ward, lf, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 70 19 4 0 3 10 10 0 5 1 11 0 0 .271 .320 .457 .777 10 Prorated Hou 150 40 8 0 6 21 21 0 10 2 23 0 0 .267 .313 .440 .753 19 Actual Hou 150 41 6 0 8 11 30 0 9 0 31 0 0 .273 .311 .473 .784 22 Ward made a late-season splash by hitting eight homers in only 150 at bats after spending most of the season in AAA New Orleans, where he hit .353 with 28 longballs in only 61 games. His position should be first base, but he obviously won't see much time there in Houston. In left, he showed very poor defensive skills while learning on-the-job. Ward has proven that he can punish minor league pitching, and the Astros' like his power potential, but there's no place for him to play regularly until he or someone else is traded. Matt Mieske, lf, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 68 16 4 0 2 9 8 1 5 0 14 0 0 .235 .293 .382 .676 7 Prorated Sea 38 9 2 0 1 5 4 0 2 0 8 0 0 .237 .275 .368 .643 3 Actual Sea 41 15 0 0 4 11 7 0 2 1 9 0 0 .366 .395 .659 1.054 11 Prorated Hou 106 25 6 0 3 14 12 1 7 0 22 0 0 .236 .287 .377 .664 11 Actual Hou 109 31 5 0 5 13 22 0 6 1 22 0 0 .284 .316 .468 .784 15 Prorated Tot 145 34 8 0 4 19 17 2 10 0 30 0 0 .234 .289 .372 .662 15 Actual Tot 150 46 5 0 9 24 29 0 8 2 31 0 0 .307 .338 .520 .858 25 Mieske replaced Alex Diaz in the reserve outfielder/pinch hitter role in Houston after his acquisition from Seattle in June. He has moderate power but his unwillingness to take a pitch makes him unsuitable for a regular role. Matt covers enough ground defensively to play left and right fields -- and even center field in an emergency. Lance Berkman, lf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 64 16 5 0 3 10 11 1 10 1 13 0 0 .250 .360 .469 .829 11 Prorated Hou 90 22 7 0 4 14 15 1 14 1 18 0 0 .244 .352 .456 .808 Actual Hou 93 22 2 0 4 10 15 0 12 0 21 5 1 .237 .321 .387 .708 12 A major college star, Berkman is projected to be a bona fide ML slugger though he, like Daryle Ward, clearly needs a position besides first base if he's going to play in Houston. He slugged .518 with a .419 on-base in AAA last year, though he only hit eight home runs in 64 games. Alex Diaz, lf, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 79 16 3 0 1 8 6 1 3 0 11 3 2 .203 .238 .278 .517 4 Prorated Hou 49 10 1 0 0 5 3 0 1 0 6 1 1 .204 .220 .224 .444 2 Actual Hou 50 11 2 0 1 3 7 0 3 0 13 2 2 .220 .264 .320 .584 4 Diaz played poorly as a reserve, spending time on the DL, before being cut loose by Houston in August. Carl Everett, cf, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 611 164 39 6 18 88 87 7 54 3 130 20 13 .268 .334 .440 .774 88 Prorated Hou 482 129 30 4 14 69 68 5 42 2 102 15 10 .268 .332 .434 .766 68 Actual Hou 464 151 33 3 25 86 108 11 50 5 94 27 7 .325 .398 .571 .969 112 Plainly put, Everett's 1999 season saved the Astros' bacon. Posting career highs in all important offensive categories, Everett made it possible for the team to survive the loss of Moises Alou's bat and to move Richard Hidalgo to left, where he could cope better with his aching knee. All of this despite playing in only 123 games due to missing 31 games in the second half with two separate injuries (strained right groin and strained right hamstring). After breaking out and having the kind of season that some analysts and commentators had been expecting of him for years, Everett was traded to Boston after the season ended. Larry Dierker was quoted as saying that he didn't think that Everett had the range to handle center field at the new ballpark, though our fielding analysis shows that he handled the position well in 1999. Glen Barker, cf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 71 15 3 1 0 10 7 1 6 0 19 2 1 .211 .282 .282 .564 6 Prorated Hou 80 17 3 1 0 11 7 1 6 0 21 2 1 .213 .276 .275 .551 6 Actual Hou 73 21 2 0 1 23 11 1 11 0 19 17 6 .288 .384 .356 .740 12 A 1998 Rule 5 pick, Barker's speed kept him on the Houston roster in a marginally useful role as a pinch runner and reserve center fielder as he spent four years at AA Jacksonville in the Detroit system. By not exposing the rookie much, Dierker was able to get some offensive contribution out of him besides 13 runs as a pinch runner and his 17 steals overall. Glen showed very good range in center in his seven starts there. Ryan Thompson, cf, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 72 16 3 0 2 8 10 1 2 0 15 1 0 .222 .253 .347 .601 6 Prorated Hou 21 4 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 .190 .190 .190 .381 1 Actual Hou 20 4 1 0 1 2 5 0 2 0 7 0 0 .200 .273 .400 .673 2 Although he surfaced in the majors for the first time since 1996, Thompson spent most of the year in AAA New Orleans beating up on minor league pitchers younger than he. Derek Bell, rf, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Hou 578 160 34 2 17 86 91 7 43 2 107 16 4 .277 .331 .431 .762 82 Prorated Hou 517 143 30 1 15 76 81 6 38 1 95 14 3 .277 .330 .426 .755 72 Actual Hou 509 120 22 0 12 61 66 4 50 1 129 18 6 .236 .306 .350 .656 53 Though he has many competitors in the surly-without-real-reason sweepstakes, Bell may have reached career heights in churlishness in '99. Traded to New York as part of the Mike Hampton deal, Bell blasted the Astros immediately and said he'd play harder to show them up. Bell missed the last two weeks of August with a strained left groin. Earlier in the fall, after being scratched from the lineup on Sept. 11 due to a pulled rib cage muscle, Bell was eventually sent to the Florida Instructional League when he failed to show up for his rehab work. He was benched for the final series of the regular season. Previous to that, Bell blasted manager Larry Dierker publicly for dropping him down in the lineup, even though Derek's miserable production was the cause. Bell's range in right was a little below average last year. He will apparently take Bonny Bonilla's place in New York in 2000, filling the role of a temperamental, underproductive hitter with declining defensive skills. In one of the lighter moments of 1999, a national sports anchor said that Bell's comments about Dierker for demoting him in the lineup were odd because Bell was very close to Dierker. That wasn't true beforehand, and it wasn't true afterward. Stan Javier, rf, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 65 18 2 1 1 10 7 0 8 0 10 3 1 .277 .351 .385 .736 9 Prorated SF 321 89 9 4 4 49 34 0 39 0 49 14 4 .277 .352 .368 .719 45 Actual SF 333 92 15 1 3 49 30 1 29 4 55 13 6 .276 .335 .354 .690 41 Prorated Hou 65 18 2 1 1 10 7 0 8 0 10 3 1 .277 .351 .385 .736 9 Actual Hou 64 21 4 1 0 12 4 0 9 0 8 3 1 .328 .405 .422 .827 11 Prorated Tot 386 107 11 5 5 59 41 0 47 0 59 17 5 .277 .352 .370 .722 55 Actual Tot 397 113 19 2 3 61 34 1 38 4 63 16 7 .285 .347 .365 .712 52 Javier essentially replaced Derek Bell in the outfield after being acquired by Houston on August 31 from San Francisco. Stan hit well down the stretch, and can play all three outfield positions, but he doesn't hit well enough to be an everyday corner outfielder. The Astros declined to offer him arbitration after the season, making him an unrestricted free agent. Key PitchersIn a year that saw the Astros' offense ravaged by injuries, the team's pitching staff still delivered the goods in 1999. Though the Astrodome helped out, the park doesn't smother the offense any longer like it did in its heyday. Houston's pitching staff was third in the NL in ERA, behind only Atlanta and Arizona. Mike Hampton, starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 3.81 32 32 12 12 0 213 214 15 77 127 .266 .707 Prorated Hou 3.81 35 35 13 13 0 232 234 16 84 139 .266 .707 Actual Hou 2.90 34 34 22 4 0 239 206 12 101 177 .241 .646 Hampton won more games in 1999 than any other pitcher in Houston history and led the majors in winning percentage at .846. He also reduced the number of unearned runs he allowed, meaning that his career-best ERA wasn't deceptive in the least. Mike accomplished all of this while walking more hitters than he had in the past in a year when home runs were flying out of ballparks in record numbers. One of the keys to Hampton's success was his success in inducing double plays. He led the NL with 38, obviously eliminating a lot of chances to get into trouble. Though the left-hander may not be able to replicate these won-lost stats again -- after all, his teammates scored 6.74 runs per nine innings for him -- Mike's just coming into his own at an age when his six years of ML experience should meld with his physical skills to produce several years of top performance. Jose Lima, starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 3.95 32 32 11 11 0 203 205 26 33 144 .263 .719 Prorated Hou 3.95 39 39 14 14 0 250 252 32 41 177 .263 .719 Actual Hou 3.58 35 35 21 10 0 246 256 30 44 187 .265 .723 After breaking through in 1998, Lima followed up with his first 20-victory season and established himself as one of the best pitchers in the league. Jose did get hammered in six starts in September-October, though, so the increased workload may have resulted in a tired arm. Aside from that caveat, Lima should be able to continue as a durable and effective starter for several more years. As a star graduate of the Larry Dierker-Vern Ruhle school of advanced pitching, Jose doesn't depend on blowing the ball by hitters. So long as he retains his remarkable control, he can cope with the gopher balls he allows. Shane Reynolds, starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 4.30 32 32 12 12 0 213 229 22 52 171 .276 .745 Prorated Hou 4.30 34 34 13 13 0 229 246 24 56 184 .276 .745 Actual Hou 3.85 35 35 16 14 0 232 250 23 37 197 .275 .721 Unlike Hampton and Lima, who saw their best years in '99, Reynolds struggled somewhat and didn't pitch as well as he had in '98. Depending on his incredible control to cover for a mediocre fastball, Shane allowed the fewest walks per nine innings (1.4) in the league. Although he led the NL in starts for the second straight year, it's Reynolds' age and not his usage that is more worrisome. Though there's no reason he can't continue at this level, allowing more hits than innings for three consecutive years isn't a good sign. Chris Holt, starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 4.01 27 27 10 10 0 182 184 16 53 89 .267 .723 Prorated Hou 4.01 26 26 10 10 0 173 175 15 50 85 .267 .723 Actual Hou 4.66 32 26 5 13 1 164 193 12 57 115 .303 .780 Coming back after shoulder surgery that caused him to miss all of 1998, Holt gets mixed reviews for his 1999 season. His won-lost record was atrocious considering he pitched for a contender with a good offense, but he didn't pitch as badly as his overall record would indicate. His run support wasn't great, but it wasn't that bad, either. Chris was positively hammered in the first half as he struggled to regain his form; his 4-4 record and 4.09 ERA after the All-Star break was encouraging. Holt's never going to be a really good pitcher, but he's certainly capable of coming back to being a .500 pitcher with a league-average ERA. Sean Bergman, starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 4.83 32 32 9 11 0 179 200 20 51 109 .285 .789 Prorated Hou 4.83 18 18 5 6 0 100 111 11 28 61 .285 .789 Actual Hou 5.36 19 16 4 6 0 99 130 9 26 38 .332 .844 Prorated Atl 4.83 1 1 0 0 0 6 7 1 2 4 .285 .789 Actual Atl 2.84 6 0 1 0 0 6 5 0 3 6 .217 .525 Prorated Tot 4.83 19 19 5 7 0 106 118 12 30 65 .285 .789 Actual Tot 5.21 25 16 5 6 0 105 135 9 29 44 .325 .826 After improving in 1998 under the tutelage of manager Dierker and pitching coach Ruhle, Bergman backslid in '99. Sean's always been considered to be too stubborn to learn how to pitch and, if he couldn't straighten out in Houston where other pitchers have thrived in recent years, his prospects are pretty dismal. Scott Elarton, swing man, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 3.97 40 0 4 3 0 70 63 7 31 70 .240 .699 Prorated Hou 3.97 70 0 7 5 0 123 110 12 54 122 .240 .699 Actual Hou 3.48 42 15 9 5 1 124 111 8 43 121 .238 .647 Seattle badly wanted Elarton included in the 1998 Randy Johnson deal, but the Astros refused. That's how much the Houston brain trust thinks of the young right-hander, a first-rounder in 1994 out of high school. Scott impressed in both starting and relief roles in 1999 until a late-season bout of soreness in his right shoulder hampered him. His potential to step into the rotation in 2000 without suffering rookie problems is one of the key reasons Houston was willing to deal Mike Hampton. Brian Williams, middle reliever, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 6.08 23 0 2 3 0 37 44 4 21 23 .291 .752 Prorated Hou 6.08 40 0 4 5 0 65 77 7 37 40 .291 .752 Actual Hou 4.41 50 0 2 1 0 67 69 4 35 53 .272 .779 Williams signed a minor league deal with Houston after 1998, then worked his way back onto the team and pitched very well in the first three months of the season on the way to a career-best in appearances. As usual, his problem was his control: Brian now has a career total of 301 walks in only 553 innings. He was a free agent and recently signed with the Cubs for 2000. Trever Miller, middle reliever, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 5.37 34 4 3 5 0 70 84 8 27 42 .300 .831 Prorated Hou 5.37 25 3 2 4 0 52 62 6 20 31 .300 .831 Actual Hou 5.07 47 0 3 2 1 50 58 6 29 37 .299 .864 A situational lefty, Miller did his job against left-handed batters (.237 BA, .363 OBA, .408 SA) but was pasted by right-handed swingers (.339, .424, .500). Given the low number of batters these short lefties face, that could be a fluke or it could mean that his tenure in the big leagues is not going to be a long one. Jose Cabrera, middle reliever, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 3.52 30 0 3 2 0 54 47 7 19 48 .235 .709 Prorated Hou 3.52 16 0 2 1 0 28 25 4 10 25 .235 .709 Actual Hou 2.15 26 0 4 0 0 29 21 3 9 28 .196 .579 A hard-throwing right-hander who missed most of the '98 season due to injury, Cabrera was very effective late in the season, holding opponents to a .146 average in 13.2 innings in after being recalled on August 31. That will get him a more serious look next spring, and he does have real potential if he can translate his nine years of pitching experience into performance. Given his age, though, a middle relief role is the most likely result. Doug Henry, setup pitcher, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 3.58 53 0 4 3 0 73 69 8 36 61 .250 .720 Prorated Hou 3.58 31 0 2 2 0 43 41 5 21 36 .250 .720 Actual Hou 4.65 35 0 2 3 2 41 45 8 24 36 .281 .910 Henry was disabled for two months starting in mid-May after arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips in his right elbow. He pitched much better afterward, though his problems with lefty batters (.315 BA, .432 OBA, .548 SA) will keep him away from setup work in the future if he can't solve them. Jay Powell, setup pitcher, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 3.05 70 0 6 3 5 100 86 6 42 81 .234 .662 Prorated Hou 3.05 57 0 5 2 4 81 70 5 34 66 .234 .662 Actual Hou 4.32 67 0 5 4 4 75 82 3 40 77 .282 .750 Powell signed at three-year contract with Houston after 1998, but he slumped somewhat in 1999. He remained effective against right-handed hitters, but portsiders hit .304 with an OPS of .891 off of him. Still, any pitcher who has plus velocity and allows only three gopher balls in 75 innings is going to get many chances to improve. Billy Wagner, closer, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 2.49 70 0 5 5 42 76 56 7 37 110 .206 .616 Prorated Hou 2.49 64 0 5 5 38 69 51 6 34 100 .206 .616 Actual Hou 1.57 66 0 4 1 39 75 35 5 23 124 .135 .420 Given his unimpressive physique (5'11", 180 pounds), the triple-digit velocity that Wagner can generate with his good left arm is truly terrifying to batters. Billy turned in one of the great seasons in relief of all-time last year. Some samples: more saves (39) than hits allowed (35); 15.0 strikeouts per nine innings; almost six times as many strikeouts as walks. His statistics don't speak for themselves, they shout for themselves. Unless his September elbow strain was hiding something serious -- and there's no indication it is -- NL hitters are going to be waving futilely at Wagner's fastball for several more years. OutlookHouston's big trade of the off-season was to send ace Mike Hampton, the NL Cy Young runner-up, to the Mets. While most of the media focused on Hampton's being a year away from cashing in via free agency, the salary-dumping aspect was only part of the reason the Astros made the deal. An equally important reason was the acquisition of outfielder Roger Cedeno, whom manager Larry Dierker expects to replace Carl Everett, who Dierker didn't think had the range to cover the large grass outfield at Enron Field. But the trade could as easily have been motivated by the fact that Carl was only one year away from free agency as well as the feeling that Carl would not likely see these heights again. Cedeno showed well above-average range in right field for the Mets last year, though his range in center was sub-par. However, Roger made only 18 starts in center in '99, so that isn't a lot of evidence to go on. Even without Hampton, the front of the Houston rotation ain't too shabby. Not very many teams have number one and two starters as good as Jose Lima and Shane Reynolds, and the Astros have legitimate candidates to fill out the rest of the rotation. Young right-hander Scott Elarton is ready to take his place in the rotation in 2000, and he has the stuff to be a star. Right-hander Octavio Dotel, acquired from New York for Hampton, has electrifying stuff and could become a dominant pitcher in the future, though he's not as mature as Elarton. Comebacks from injured outfielders Moises Alou and Richard Hidalgo are critical to the Astros' hopes next year. Contributions from young sluggers Daryle Ward and Lance Berkman will also be important, as the team needs to be able to rely less on its two superstars, especially when facing top-flight pitching. Given all the key injuries the team suffered in 1999, the outlook for 2000 is good, if not rosy. Successful comebacks by only a few key players who were hobbled last year will make Larry Dierker's life a lot easier, though the big-stakes trades of Everett and Hampton could backfire. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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