Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Kansas City Royals By Tom Tippett This article takes a look at how the Kansas City Royals did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 780 856 Runs allowed 849 921 Run Margin -69 -65 Wins 74 64 Pythagorean wins 74 75 Placement 3rd 4th Sometimes, the final standings can be a little deceiving. In 1998, the Royals won 72 games and finished third in the division. But they were second-last in the AL in both runs scored and runs allowed, and they were outscored by 185 runs, easily the worst differential in the league. Not surprisingly, they also lost far more games (41) by five or more runs than any other team in baseball. If it wasn't for a 17-16 record on one-run games, Kansas City would have finished in the basement. Then Jose Offerman and Dean Palmer, their two best offensive players, left as free agents, and there were widespread reports that they needed to cut payroll even further and would therefore trade their best pitcher, Kevin Appier, before the season. So there didn't seem to be a lot of reason to be optimistic about 1999. Or did there? Our pre-season simulations projected a significant improvement in performance. The biggest reason was the injection into the offense of three young players -- Carlos Beltran, Carlos Febles, and Jeremy Giambi -- who were coming off monster seasons in the minor leagues. Another was the return of Appier, and since he hadn't yet been traded when our projections were done in March, we were forced to assume that he would be with the team all year. (The only alternative was to guess where he'd go and what the Royals would get in return.) And the defense looked to improve with the move of Johnny Damon from CF to LF to make room for Beltran, the addition of Rey Sanchez at SS, and upgrades at 3B (Randa for Palmer) and 2B (Febles for Offerman). And so it appeared that Kansas City would improve their run differential from -185 to - 69, increase their win total from 72 to 74, and maintain their hold on third place. In reality, they scored 142 more runs than the year before and dramatically improved their run differential (to -65). But the Royals lost ground in the standings anyway, nearly finishing last in baseball's weakest division, because their bullpen was horrible (30 blown saves in 59 chances) and the team was only 11-32 in one-run games. Even the worst teams are usually close to .500 in these one-run games, and Kansas City would have been challenging the White Sox for second place if they'd been able to do the same. Key Position PlayersThe Royals were projected to score 66 more runs than the year before despite the loss of Offerman and Palmer, because Beltran, Febles and Giambi were expected to play every day and to make solid contributions. Beltran fulfilled this promise and then some by taking the AL Rookie of the Year award. Febles and Giambi contributed as well, though both battled injuries and weren't able to deliver all that they seemed capable of. But several others came through in a big way. Mike Sweeney had a breakout season (.322, 22 HR, 100+ runs and RBI) after being moved out from behind the plate. Jermaine Dye had a big year in RF, hitting .294 with 27 homers and 119 RBI, and creating 48 more runs than expected. At 3B, Joe Randa created more runs than Dean Palmer did with the Tigers. Rey Sanchez played terrific defense at shortstop, as expected, and also had his best year at the plate. Johnny Damon continued to improve. And Mark Quinn added some serious pop after being called up in September. The result was a jump from 13th to 7th in the league in scoring, thanks to a 19-point leap in team batting average, a 24-point increase in on-base percentage, and a 34-point surge in slugging percentage. Chad Kreuter, c, age 34 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 362 84 14 2 4 37 40 3 43 1 82 1 1 .232 .318 .315 .633 37 Prorated KC 321 74 12 1 3 32 35 2 38 0 72 0 0 .231 .316 .302 .618 32 Actual KC 324 73 15 0 5 31 35 6 34 1 65 0 0 .225 .309 .318 .627 30 Kreuter's value supposedly lies in his defensive skills and the ability to handle a pitching staff, but the staff was last in the AL and actually had a slightly higher ERA when Kreuter was catching. He had another typically weak season at the plate, and won't be back next year. Tim Spehr, c, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 66 10 2 0 1 6 6 2 7 0 19 0 1 .152 .253 .227 .481 4 Prorated KC 164 24 4 0 2 14 14 4 17 0 47 0 2 .146 .243 .207 .451 9 Actual KC 155 32 7 0 9 26 26 6 22 0 47 1 0 .206 .324 .426 .750 24 Spehr's career average is .198, which is the main reason why he's never been given more than 100 atbats in a season prior to this year. But he now has a very respectable 67 walks and 19 homers in 556 career atbats, so he does make a contribution at the plate. Nevertheless, he's a free agent and won't be back with KC next year. Sal Fasano, c, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 67 14 3 0 2 7 8 3 4 0 19 0 0 .209 .280 .343 .623 7 Prorated KC 67 14 3 0 2 7 8 3 4 0 19 0 0 .209 .280 .343 .623 7 Actual KC 60 14 2 0 5 11 16 7 7 0 17 0 1 .233 .373 .517 .890 12 Fasano's career offensive numbers aren't much different from Spehr's, but Fasano is quite a bit younger and is coming off a very nice half-season in AAA (.275 average, .415 on-base percentage, and 21 homers in only 280 atbats), so word is he's been penciled in as the starting catcher for 2000. There's nothing in his minor-league record that suggests he'll hit for average, but if his new-found batting eye is for real, he could be a Gene Tenace type who draws a lot of walks and pops enough homers to be a decent offensive player. Jeff King, 1b, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 566 135 25 1 26 89 106 2 66 2 92 13 3 .239 .315 .424 .739 79 Prorated KC 79 19 3 0 3 12 14 0 9 0 12 1 0 .241 .315 .392 .707 10 Actual KC 72 17 2 0 3 14 11 3 15 1 10 2 0 .236 .385 .389 .774 13 King got off to a very slow start as he battled a chronic back problem, then retired unexpectedly in May. He could have hung on for the rest of the year, collecting the rest of his big salary and taking valuable playing time away from some of the youngsters. But he chose to walk away from the money, and I applaud him for that. Mike Sweeney, 1b/dh/c, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 194 48 11 0 6 24 27 3 17 0 27 1 2 .247 .315 .397 .712 24 Prorated KC 574 142 32 0 17 71 80 8 50 0 80 2 5 .247 .314 .392 .706 69 Actual KC 575 185 44 2 22 101 102 10 54 0 48 6 1 .322 .387 .520 .907 113 After several years of trying to make it as a catcher, Sweeney was used at DH and 1B this year, and for the first time put up numbers resembling the best of his minor-league seasons. Those seasons were at the lower levels, however, so it was anything but clear that he had the ability to do this in the majors. I'll be surprised if the team asks him to don the tools of ignorance again, except in an emergency. Larry Sutton, 1b, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 138 33 7 0 3 15 19 1 14 1 22 1 1 .239 .310 .355 .665 16 Prorated KC 104 24 5 0 2 11 14 0 10 0 16 0 0 .231 .296 .337 .632 11 Actual KC 102 23 6 0 2 14 15 0 13 0 17 1 0 .225 .308 .343 .651 11 When King was injury, and again after he retired, Sutton was given a crack at the 1B job. His production was exactly as projected, but not nearly enough to keep the job, and he's now a free agent. Scott Leius, 1b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 72 17 2 0 3 8 10 0 3 0 8 0 1 .236 .267 .389 .656 6 Prorated KC 78 18 2 0 3 8 10 0 3 0 8 0 1 .231 .259 .372 .631 6 Actual KC 74 15 1 0 1 8 10 1 4 0 8 1 0 .203 .244 .257 .501 5 His season ended on the fourth of July when he went on the DL with a torn rotator cuff. He's now a free agent, and even if he gets his shoulder back to full strength, this could be the end of the line for him. Carlos Febles, 2b, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 492 139 26 14 7 88 40 10 79 1 90 39 14 .283 .390 .435 .825 92 Prorated KC 437 123 23 12 6 78 35 8 70 0 80 34 12 .281 .389 .430 .819 80 Actual KC 453 116 22 9 10 71 53 9 47 0 91 20 4 .256 .336 .411 .747 63 Febles hit .318 with an on-base percentage near .400 through the end of May. He strained his shoulder in early June, and coincidence or not, hit only .219 from that point on. The biggest blow was a dislocated pinky that put him on the DL for 3-1/2 weeks. His average was only .156 after his return. Still, he showed a lot for a young middle infielder, and I would expect him to have a better 2000. Jed Hansen, 2b/ss/3b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 68 16 3 1 1 8 7 0 5 0 18 2 1 .235 .284 .353 .637 7 Prorated KC 85 20 3 1 1 10 8 0 6 0 22 2 1 .235 .283 .329 .612 8 Actual KC 79 16 1 0 3 16 5 0 10 0 32 0 1 .203 .289 .329 .618 8 Wasn't projected to hit much, and didn't. His stats at AAA Omaha were reasonably good in 1997-98, but that's a good hitter's park, so they don't translate well to the big leagues. He'll be with the Padres in 2000. Joe Randa, 3b, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 588 159 30 6 9 70 69 7 50 2 89 10 6 .270 .332 .388 .720 76 Prorated KC 619 167 31 6 9 73 72 7 52 2 93 10 6 .270 .331 .383 .714 79 Actual KC 628 197 36 8 16 92 84 3 50 4 80 5 4 .314 .363 .473 .836 106 This was his best year, but not by a whole lot. Take away about four homers and you'd have his 1996 and 1997 seasons. Still, it was a very nice bounce from a disappointing 1998 campaign that saw him hit only .254 with minimal power. It's not likely he'll ever do much better than this, but this was good enough for him to sneak into the top ten in OPS among major league 3Bs. Rey Sanchez, ss, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 531 140 25 2 3 65 43 5 28 3 73 2 3 .264 .305 .335 .640 52 Prorated KC 479 126 22 1 2 58 38 4 25 2 65 1 2 .263 .304 .326 .630 45 Actual KC 479 141 18 6 2 66 56 4 22 2 48 11 5 .294 .329 .370 .698 56 Our defensive studies have consistently shown that Sanchez is one of the best, if not the best, defensive shortstop of the past several years. Like Ozzie Smith, Sanchez has absolutely no power but has figured out how to get his batting average up into the .280s in recent years. But Smith drew over 1000 walks in his career, while Sanchez hardly ever takes a free pass. So he's always struggled to keep a regular job despite his defensive prowess. KC just signed him to a two-year contract, so it looks as if he'll finally have a regular job. Ray Holbert, ss/2b, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 69 16 3 1 0 8 6 0 5 0 18 2 1 .232 .284 .304 .588 6 Prorated KC 105 24 4 1 0 12 9 0 7 0 27 3 1 .229 .277 .286 .563 9 Actual KC 100 28 3 0 0 14 5 0 8 0 20 7 4 .280 .330 .310 .640 10 Don't get too carried away by that .280 batting average. Holbert was projected for almost no power and still managed to come up short. So he scratched out five extra singles in a hundred atbats. Big deal. His career average is still only .222 and he's earned only 198 atbats through age 29. He might hang on for another year or two as a utility player. Steve Scarsone, ss/1b/2b/3b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 68 15 3 0 3 7 7 1 6 0 20 0 0 .221 .293 .397 .690 8 Prorated KC 71 15 3 0 3 7 7 1 6 0 21 0 0 .211 .282 .380 .662 8 Actual KC 68 14 5 0 0 2 6 0 9 0 24 1 0 .206 .295 .279 .574 7 Scarsone's average was under .220 for the third straight year, and he was released in September. Johnny Damon, lf/cf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 599 162 25 6 13 91 61 4 50 3 84 24 11 .270 .329 .397 .727 82 Prorated KC 598 161 24 5 12 90 60 3 49 2 83 23 10 .269 .327 .386 .713 79 Actual KC 583 179 39 9 14 101 77 3 67 5 50 36 6 .307 .379 .477 .856 111 Damon went from budding superstar to disappointment before his 24th birthday, but he's slowly becoming a solid offensive player. His batting average, walks and power have risen every single year, and he's young enough to continue improving. A former center fielder who switched to left this year, he was among the leaders in our defensive rankings at his new position. Scott Pose, ph/lf/dh, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 85 21 3 1 0 13 7 1 8 0 12 6 2 .247 .319 .306 .625 9 Prorated KC 143 35 5 1 0 21 11 1 13 0 20 10 3 .245 .312 .294 .606 14 Actual KC 137 39 3 0 0 27 12 0 21 1 22 6 2 .285 .377 .307 .684 18 You've got to admire his dedication to the game. At age 26, he couldn't land a regular job with the expansion Marlins. After three more years in AAA, he was a fifth outfielder with the Yankees for part of 1997. Then he found himself back in the minors in 1998, 31 years old, and with a grand total of 128 major-league atbats under his belt. But he'd been hitting pretty well in AAA the past two years -- around .300 with an on-base percentage in the high .300s, but no power -- and that earned him another shot. Mark Quinn, lf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual KC 60 20 4 1 6 11 18 1 4 0 11 1 0 .333 .385 .733 1.118 17 We goofed when we failed to project any major-league playing time for this guy back in the spring. He's hit for average and power at every stop in the minors, and was coming off a AA season in which he batted .349 and slugged .581. In 1999, he earned MVP honors in the Pacific Coast League, and he just kept on hitting after a September call-up. Carlos Beltran, cf, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 652 175 35 7 18 95 104 6 54 6 124 21 7 .268 .328 .426 .754 90 Prorated KC 652 175 35 7 18 95 104 6 54 6 124 21 7 .268 .328 .426 .754 90 Actual KC 663 194 27 7 22 112 108 4 46 2 123 27 8 .293 .337 .454 .791 101 Along with Giambi and Febles, Beltran was the third reason why the Royals were projected to improve dramatically over 1998. We had projected the other two to outhit him, but it was Beltran who went on to win the AL Rookie of the Year award with a solid all-around performance. In time, I think Febles will move into the leadoff spot that Beltran occupied for most of 1999. Beltran's better suited to the 5th or 6th spot in the order because he doesn't get on base nearly as much as the other two. Jermaine Dye, rf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 648 156 25 0 24 79 82 3 37 2 130 7 6 .241 .282 .390 .672 66 Prorated KC 626 150 24 0 23 76 79 2 35 1 125 6 5 .240 .280 .388 .668 62 Actual KC 608 179 44 8 27 96 119 1 58 4 119 2 3 .294 .354 .526 .880 110 Dye showed a lot of promise when he debuted at age 22 with the Braves in 1996, but he slumped in 1997-98. As a result, much less was expected of him this year. But Dye started fast and maintained a strong pace all season. Jeremy Giambi, dh/1b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection KC 487 145 29 1 21 82 85 7 71 8 89 7 7 .298 .390 .491 .881 96 Prorated KC 285 84 16 0 12 48 49 4 41 4 52 4 4 .295 .386 .477 .863 54 Actual KC 288 82 13 1 3 34 34 3 40 5 67 0 0 .285 .373 .368 .741 42 There's never been any question about his ability to hit. His last four minor-league batting averages have been .336, .321, .372 and .346. And those are the least impressive of his averages -- his on-base percentages have been in the mid-.400s and he's slugged well over .600 in 450 AAA atbats. There has been a question about where he'd play, however, as he's not regarded as a good fielder in the outfield or at first. His first taste of the majors was delayed for a couple of months by a nagging hamstring injury. Once activated, he came within two hits of matching his projected batting average and on-base percentage, but his power was nowhere to be seen. That should develop in the next couple of years. Key PitchersAlthough the Royals were dead last in the league in pitching, there were some encouraging signs. The rotation pretty good, finishing with an ERA that was only 0.11 above the league average for starting pitchers. Kevin Appier was healthy enough to take a regular turn, so the Royals were able to get some young arms in return when he was dealt at the trading deadline. Jose Rosado had a very good year, Jeff Suppan improved, and Jay Watasick finished well. But the bullpen was a huge disappointment, posting an ERA of 5.75 (almost a run and a quarter above the league average for relievers), the worst in baseball this side of Seattle. And you could argue that the Seattle pen, which managed to save 40 games in 60 tries, compared with 29 of 59 for the Royals, was actually a little more effective. As you read through the player comments below, you'll see several relievers who had been respectable in recent years and who suddenly lost the ability get anyone out. And when the bullpen woes mounted, the club tried a bunch of other pitchers who aren't shown here, many of them young and unproven, who posted sky-high ERAs in twenty or so innings before being discarded. Kevin Appier, starter, age 31 (as of July 1, 1999)ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 4.40 32 32 10 10 0 178 186 22 63 161 .270 .761 Prorated KC 4.40 26 26 8 8 0 142 148 18 50 129 .270 .761 Actual KC 4.87 22 22 9 9 0 140 153 18 51 78 .279 .783 Prorated Oak 4.40 13 13 4 4 0 73 76 9 26 66 .270 .761 Actual Oak 5.77 12 12 7 5 0 69 77 9 33 53 .280 .826 Prorated Tot 4.40 39 39 12 12 0 215 224 27 76 194 .270 .761 Actual Tot 5.17 34 34 16 14 0 209 230 27 84 131 .279 .798 Back in the spring, few people thought Kevin Appier would start the season with the Royals, and even fewer thought he would still be with them at seasons end, as the Royals were looking to dump his salary. Many teams were said to be interested, but with Appier having missed almost all of 1998 recovering from shoulder surgery, nobody really knew what he was capable of. As you can see from the stats, Appier's performance was in line with our projections, except that 40% of his strikeouts disappeared. That was good enough for the Oakland A's, who gave up some young pitchers to get him at the trading deadline. He didn't pitch all that well for the A's either, but they did get seven wins out of him. I'm not quite sure what to expect next year. The good news is that he was able to throw 209 innings a year after shoulder surgery. The bad news is that his walk-strikeout ratio deteriorated very badly, and he's always had a funky motion that appears to put a lot of strain on his shoulder. If I had to guess, I'd say he'll be a little better next year, as it often takes pitchers a couple of years to get back to full strength after surgery. Jose Rosado, starter, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 3.97 32 32 12 10 0 197 190 23 66 144 .254 .716 Prorated KC 3.97 34 34 13 11 0 209 201 24 70 153 .254 .716 Actual KC 3.85 33 33 10 14 0 208 197 24 72 141 .248 .703 Rosado broke into the starting rotation at age 21 and has been getting a little better each year. Now he's the staff ace at the tender age of 24. He's not a great pitcher yet, but there are lots of teams that would love to have a guy with an ERA a full run below the league average and almost 700 career innings under his belt at this age. Jeff Suppan, starter, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 5.06 32 32 8 10 0 176 202 23 54 123 .289 .799 Prorated KC 5.06 37 37 9 12 0 203 233 27 62 142 .289 .799 Actual KC 4.53 32 32 10 12 0 209 222 28 62 103 .274 .763 I'm not completely sold on Suppan yet. I saw him make his major-league debut with the Red Sox a couple of years back, and I was very impressed with his poise, control, and understanding of the craft. But he doesn't have great stuff, so he can't get away with as many mistakes as some others can. His second half (5.42 ERA, .299 batting average and .496 slugging average allowed) was much worse that his first, so hitters may have caught on to his style. Jay Witasick, starter, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 5.19 27 27 8 10 0 160 163 30 72 153 .265 .815 Prorated KC 5.19 28 28 8 10 0 166 170 31 75 160 .265 .815 Actual KC 5.57 32 28 9 12 0 158 191 23 83 102 .304 .847 Witasick had a couple of excellent seasons as a starting pitcher in the low minors back in 1994-95, but was converted to a middle relief role in 1996. He didn't have much success in that role in the minors or in some brief callups with the A's. But he had another good year in AAA Edmonton in 1998 after he was moved back into the rotation. The interesting thing about his 1999 season was the finish -- he was 5-4 with an ERA under 4.00 in the last two months. That could be a fluke, of course, but it could also mean that he's turned the corner. Blake Stein, starter, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 5.64 34 4 4 6 0 81 88 14 47 68 .276 .851 Prorated Oak 5.64 2 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 2 3 .276 .851 Actual Oak 16.88 1 1 0 0 0 3 6 1 6 4 .462 1.478 Prorated KC 5.64 28 3 3 5 0 67 72 12 39 56 .276 .851 Actual KC 4.09 12 11 1 2 0 70 59 10 41 43 .230 .743 Prorated Tot 5.64 30 3 3 5 0 71 77 12 41 59 .276 .851 Actual Tot 4.56 13 12 1 2 0 73 65 11 47 47 .241 .781 One of the pitchers who came over from Oakland in the Appier deal, Stein began to deliver on his promise after the Royals put him in the rotation. He's had some minor-league seasons with terrific ratios of hits and strikeouts to innings, so the potential is there. If he can figure out how to get the ball over the plate consistently, he could quickly turn into a very good pitcher. Mac Suzuki, swing man, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 6.83 30 0 3 4 0 57 67 11 37 39 .295 .912 Prorated Sea 6.83 23 0 2 3 0 43 51 8 28 30 .295 .912 Actual Sea 9.43 16 4 0 2 0 42 47 7 34 32 .283 .917 Prorated KC 6.83 34 0 3 4 0 64 75 12 42 44 .295 .912 Actual KC 5.16 22 9 2 3 0 68 77 9 30 36 .287 .813 Prorated Tot 6.83 57 0 6 8 0 107 127 21 70 74 .295 .912 Actual Tot 6.79 38 13 2 5 0 110 124 16 64 68 .286 .854 When the Mariners signed Suzuki out of Japan a few years ago, there was much hoopla from the Japanese and domestic press. But he hasn't yet had much success at any level. He was projected to walk way too many hitters and to get hit pretty hard when he threw strikes, and that's just about what happened. The only good news is that he wasn't quite as bad with KC as he was in Seattle. Chris Fussell, swing man, age 23ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 7.00 4 4 1 1 0 18 23 3 12 14 .315 .934 Prorated KC 7.00 12 12 3 3 0 54 69 9 36 42 .315 .934 Actual KC 7.39 17 8 0 5 2 56 72 9 36 37 .329 .935 He wasn't ready for the majors this year, but he's had moderate to very good success throughout his minor-league career, so I expect him to make a contribution in the next few years. After Fussell was hit very hard in a month-long stint in the rotation from mid-May to mid-June, he was sent down to AAA. He was used out of the pen after he was recalled in August, and was a little better in that role. Dan Reichert, starter, age 22ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual KC 9.08 8 8 2 2 0 37 48 2 32 20 .327 .872 It sure looks as if the Royals rushed this youngster, but you can hardly blame them for taking a shot. He was 9-2 in AAA Omaha, having given up only 92 hits and striking out 123 in 111 innings. And that was in a good hitters' park. He should be a good one in the not-too-distant future. Brian Barber, swing man, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 6.45 32 32 8 13 0 165 195 35 80 110 .293 .889 Prorated KC 6.45 4 4 1 2 0 20 24 4 10 14 .293 .889 Actual KC 9.64 8 3 1 3 1 19 31 6 10 7 .383 1.173 Barber got a shot at the rotation in 1999 on the strength of a pretty good 1998 season at AAA Omaha (8-4, 3.75). But he failed again in his fourth try at the big-league level, and spent most of the year back in AAA, where he went 9-5 with a 4.56 ERA. He's a former first-round draft pick, so he'll get more chances, but they won't be in Kansas City. He's with the Indians now. Jose Santiago, long reliever, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 6.23 30 0 1 3 0 39 53 5 16 15 .329 .888 Prorated KC 6.23 34 0 1 3 0 44 60 6 18 17 .329 .888 Actual KC 3.42 34 0 3 4 2 47 46 7 14 15 .251 .700 Santiago has never been one to strike out a lot of hitters, even in the low minors, so I wonder whether he can continue to get big-league hitters out. Even in his two best minor-league seasons, one in A ball and one at AA, he allowed more than a hit per inning. Don Wengert, long reliever, age 29ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 6.34 23 0 1 3 0 38 48 6 14 23 .310 .869 Prorated KC 6.34 15 0 1 2 0 26 32 4 9 15 .310 .869 Actual KC 9.25 11 1 0 1 0 24 41 6 5 10 .376 1.002 May have run out of chances. He was released by the Royals after this dismal performance, and now has a career ERA of 5.74. Alvin Morman, middle reliever, age 30ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 5.92 53 0 2 3 0 52 64 10 25 42 .306 .901 Prorated KC 5.92 55 0 2 3 0 53 66 10 26 43 .306 .901 Actual KC 4.05 49 0 2 4 1 53 66 6 23 31 .307 .839 That opposition batting average is ugly, but Morman was able to throw strikes and keep the ball in the park. He's a lefty who wasn't all that good against left-handed batters, but lefties tend to get a lot of chances these days, so he may have a few years left. Brad Rigby, middle reliever, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 5.72 27 27 6 11 0 146 179 21 47 72 .304 .840 Prorated Oak 5.72 12 12 3 5 0 63 77 9 20 31 .304 .840 Actual Oak 4.33 29 0 3 4 0 62 69 5 26 26 .284 .777 Prorated KC 5.72 4 4 1 2 0 23 29 3 8 12 .304 .840 Actual KC 7.17 20 0 1 2 0 21 33 6 5 10 .351 .963 Prorated Tot 5.72 16 16 4 6 0 86 106 12 28 42 .304 .840 Actual Tot 5.06 49 0 4 6 0 84 102 11 31 36 .303 .828 Once a well-regarded prospect, Rigby's stock has slipped in recent years. He had some success as a starter in A ball and at AA, but he's been less impressive at the higher levels. He was converted to a reliever in 1999 but didn't show all that much, especially after arriving from Oakland. Scott Service, middle reliever, age 32ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 4.03 70 0 6 4 2 96 96 11 38 114 .261 .762 Prorated KC 4.03 59 0 5 3 2 80 80 9 32 96 .261 .762 Actual KC 6.09 68 0 5 5 8 75 87 13 42 68 .294 .886 After a very good 1998 season -- 3.48, 70 hits allowed in 83 innings, and a K:BB ratio of almost 3:1 -- Service was pounded by left-handed batters this past year (.339 average, .627 slugging). Matt Whisenant, middle reliever, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 4.77 70 0 4 4 1 66 75 5 49 54 .291 .812 Prorated KC 4.77 41 0 2 2 1 39 44 3 29 32 .291 .812 Actual KC 6.35 48 0 4 4 1 40 40 4 26 27 .267 .799 Prorated SD 4.77 13 0 1 1 0 13 14 1 9 10 .291 .812 Actual SD 3.68 19 0 0 1 0 15 10 0 10 10 .200 .573 Prorated Tot 4.77 54 0 3 3 1 51 58 4 38 42 .291 .812 Actual Tot 5.63 67 0 4 5 1 54 50 4 36 37 .250 .743 Whisenant's stats weren't nearly as bad as his ERA suggests, but he has always walked too many hitters, and he was one of several Royals relievers who were released in August. Tim Byrdak, middle reliever, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual KC 7.66 33 0 0 3 1 25 32 5 20 17 .308 .895 Byrdak's a lefty, which means that his number #1 job is to get lefties out, and he did that very well, allowing only a .212 batting average with 6 walks in 52 atbats. But right-handers pounded him to the tune of a .404 batting average and a .537 on-base percentage. He's been terrific at AAA the past two years, so if he can come up with a way to work the right-handed batters, Byrdak will be able to expand his role. Terry Mathews, middle reliever, age 34ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 6.61 13 0 1 1 0 16 22 4 8 12 .324 .978 Prorated KC 6.61 29 0 2 2 0 37 49 9 18 27 .324 .978 Actual KC 4.38 24 1 2 1 1 39 44 4 17 19 .289 .807 After posting a sub-4.00 ERA in three of his first four seaons, Mathews has been above that mark ever since. Even though he was one of the few Royals relievers to get some people out last year, he was released in August to make way for younger players. Jeff Montgomery, closer, age 37ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 3.91 70 0 3 6 27 74 75 12 26 68 .265 .774 Prorated KC 3.91 53 0 2 5 20 55 56 9 20 51 .265 .774 Actual KC 6.84 49 0 1 4 12 51 72 7 21 27 .343 .919 After a long and mostly successful career as the Royals closer, Montgomery decided to call it quits after the season. Through 1993, his ERAs were consistently below 3.00, but he's averaged 4.44 over the past six years, and his save percentages have been dropping to unacceptable levels. He retires with 304 career saves. Not bad. OutlookOn the plus side, this is a very young team, and should continue to be an offensive force even if some players who had career years in 1999 slip back toward their normal levels. Febles and Giambi should contribute more next year, and if Giambi can't do that, Mark Quinn looks like he's ready, assuming he recovers from a shoulder injury suffered in winter ball. On the minus side, it's not nearly as clear that the young pitchers are ready to break through like the hitters did in 1999. Barring any major off-season acquisitions, the mound corps will enter 2000 with 25-year-old Jose Rosado as the staff ace and no veteran presence anywhere in sight. Jerry Spradlin should help the bullpen a little, but it needs more help. There is a precedent for teams with poor records in one-run games to bounce back the next year. Every team since 1996 that has been at least eight games under .500 in these contests has improved the following season: Record Following
1996 Tigers 12-21 17-19
Royals 14-26 20-29
Cubs 21-34 24-26
Giants 17-29 23-17
1997 Rangers 18-29 19-17
1998 Mariners 10-20 20-23
Reds 16-26 21-24
Pirates 19-30 20-22
So it's quite reasonable to expect that KC's overall win-loss record will improve next year. But they need to add ten wins just to get back to the 74-88 record their run differential normally produces. The offense isn't likely to challenge Cleveland or Seattle for the league lead in scoring, so if this club is to make the jump to a .500 record, the young pitchers have to find a way to move from last in the league in team ERA to the middle of the pack. It's possible, but my guess is that they need to add talent from outside the organization or be prepared to wait another year for their youngsters to develop. Projections and text: Copyright © 1999. Diamond Mind,
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