Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Los Angeles Dodgers By Tom Tippett This article takes a look at how the Los Angeles Dodgers did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 758 793 Runs allowed 655 787 Run Margin +103 +6 Wins 92 77 Pythagorean wins 93 82 Placement 1st 3rd Sometimes you have to dig deep to find the reasons why a favored team fell short of expectations, but that's not the case this time. Over 80% of the pre-season predictions we compiled put the Dodgers in first place, and I'll bet that most of those 'experts' would have cited the starting rotation as the team's biggest strength. But 60% of that rotation turned out to be the club's achilles heel, as Chan Ho Park, Carlos Perez, and Darren Dreifort combined to give more than 100 earned runs in excess of their projections. If those three guys have normal seasons, the Dodgers win 90 games, and the division race gets very interesting. Key Position PlayersThe offense wasn't the problem. The starters at every position but catcher were above their projections, and the team finished in the middle of the pack in scoring despite playing in one of the worst hitters' parks in the league. Todd Hundley, c, age 30 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 456 106 20 1 28 67 82 3 79 12 140 2 3 .232 .347 .465 .812 77 Prorated LA 360 83 15 0 22 52 64 2 62 9 110 1 2 .231 .344 .456 .800 59 Actual LA 376 78 14 0 24 49 55 4 44 3 113 3 0 .207 .295 .436 .731 51 One of the Dodgers' biggest off-season gambles was a series of trades that sent a terrific defensive catcher (Charles Johnson) to the Orioles and brought an offensive catcher (Hundley) who was coming off major elbow surgery. The early returns weren't good, as Johnson outhit Hundley in 1999 and Hundley had so much trouble trying to throw out runners that he was benched for a while to work on his mechanics. It wouldn't be fair, however, to blame Hundley for the meltdown of the starting pitchers, as their ERA with Hundley catching was no worse than with their other catchers, and in 1998 it was no better with Johnson. A wrist injury caused the switch-hitter to give up batting right-handed for the last seven weeks and helped account for a .181 batting average after the break. Angel Pena, c, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 70 18 3 0 2 9 9 1 4 0 12 1 1 .257 .307 .386 .692 8 Prorated LA 126 32 5 0 3 16 16 1 7 0 21 1 1 .254 .299 .365 .664 14 Actual LA 120 25 6 0 4 14 21 0 12 0 24 0 1 .208 .276 .358 .634 11 A disappointment. Pena was a good hitter throughout his minor-league career, but didn't produce for the Dodgers in 1999. He was criticized for being out of shape and then sent to AAA, where he was suspended for a week for unspecified violations of team policies. Paul LoDuca, c, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 67 17 4 0 1 7 7 0 6 0 5 2 1 .254 .311 .358 .669 7 Prorated LA 98 24 5 0 1 10 10 0 8 0 7 2 1 .245 .299 .327 .626 9 Actual LA 95 22 1 0 3 11 11 2 10 4 9 1 2 .232 .312 .337 .649 10 In the minors, LoDuca consistently batted over .300 with doubles power and a good on-base percentage, but those numbers were helped by hitter-friendly environments. That, plus the normal deflation of minor-league stats when adjusted for major-league competition, is why he projected to hit only .254 with below-average power. Eric Karros, 1b, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 558 147 23 0 25 67 92 2 52 1 103 9 3 .263 .324 .439 .763 81 Prorated LA 575 151 23 0 25 69 94 2 53 1 106 9 3 .263 .323 .433 .756 82 Actual LA 578 176 40 0 34 74 112 2 53 0 119 8 5 .304 .362 .550 .912 111 I can't remember the last time that Karros wasn't the subject of trade rumors, but I'm not sure why so many people seem to think the Dodgers would be better off moving him. All he's done is average .284 with 31 homers and 104 RBI over the past five seasons, and 1999 was his best year yet. Eric Young, 2b, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 585 148 26 3 7 88 50 10 61 1 46 45 15 .253 .332 .344 .675 72 Prorated LA 466 118 20 2 5 70 39 7 48 0 36 35 11 .253 .330 .337 .667 56 Actual LA 456 128 24 2 2 73 41 5 63 0 26 51 22 .281 .371 .355 .726 64 Young battled a variety of minor ailments (calf, ankle, hamstring) but still came through with a season that was a little better than expected. Hasn't really declined from his peak levels, though it might seem so since he played for Colorado from age 26-30. In those years, park effects boosted his numbers to unrealistic levels, and his 1999 season was actually a little better than his career averages on a park-neutral basis. Craig Counsell, 2b, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Flo 402 103 21 5 3 52 44 5 51 6 48 5 1 .256 .345 .356 .701 53 Prorated Flo 62 16 3 0 0 8 6 0 7 0 7 0 0 .258 .333 .306 .640 6 Actual Flo 66 10 1 0 0 4 2 0 5 0 10 0 0 .152 .211 .167 .378 3 Prorated LA 104 26 5 1 0 13 11 1 13 1 12 1 0 .250 .339 .317 .656 12 Actual LA 108 28 6 0 0 20 9 0 9 0 14 1 0 .259 .311 .315 .626 12 Prorated Tot 167 42 8 2 1 21 18 2 21 2 19 2 0 .251 .340 .341 .682 21 Actual Tot 174 38 7 0 0 24 11 0 14 0 24 1 0 .218 .274 .259 .532 14 During a period when Young was slumping, the Dodgers acquired Counsell from the Marlins in a minor deal. There was no reason to believe he would be better than Young, but he was made the starter for a while. After Counsell failed to produce above his modest projections, Young once again got most of the playing time. Adrian Beltre, 3b, age 21AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 521 124 28 1 22 63 77 6 50 2 90 17 5 .238 .310 .422 .732 70 Prorated LA 547 130 29 1 23 66 80 6 52 2 94 17 5 .238 .309 .420 .729 73 Actual LA 538 148 27 5 15 84 67 6 61 12 105 18 7 .275 .352 .428 .780 86 Let's begin with the on-field side of things. This was a terrific debut season for a very young player in a pitcher's park. And he showed very good range in the field. He made a lot of errors (29), but that's not unusual for a young player. He'll become steadier with experience. Off the field, Beltre is the center of a controversy in which the Dodgers have admitted to lying about Beltre's age when they signed him to a pro contract at age 15, when the rules state that a player must be 16 to enter into such a contract. MLB has ruled that the Dodgers must pay a fine but that Beltre can stay with the team. This saga may not be over, however, as the players association has filed a grievance aimed at making him a free agent. Mark Grudzielanek, ss, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 549 145 26 1 7 61 46 9 21 1 66 19 6 .264 .300 .353 .653 57 Prorated LA 497 131 23 0 6 55 41 8 19 0 59 17 5 .264 .299 .346 .645 51 Actual LA 488 159 23 5 7 72 46 10 31 1 65 6 6 .326 .376 .436 .812 78 To me, this performance was one of the biggest surprises of the season, even though there were quite a few others who surpassed their projections by a larger margin. Going into 1999, I considered him to be one of the most overrated players in the game, and it seemed as if Dodger management had fallen into the trap of placing too much emphasis on some of the glamour stats that don't contribute all that much to total offense. For example, Mark had 201 hits and 33 steals in 1996, then stroked 54 doubles in 1997. Nice numbers, to be sure, but when you add his pathetic walk rate, slugging averages that were well below the league average, and his tendency to lead the league in errors by a wide margin, it was clear that too much focus was being given to a few selected achievements. Grudzielanek worked hard on his defense last winter, and it paid off with a dramatic decrease in errors. And he wound up among the league leaders in batting average, drawing a few more walks and adding a modest amount of power along the way. He missed six weeks in the middle of the season when he broke his hand punching the dugout wall, but his post-injury .342 batting average proves that he made a full recovery. It was enough to transform him from a liability into something of an asset, though he's still not in the top tier of big-league shortstops offensively or defensively. Before this surge, he was on his way to becoming a utility player, but he'll keep a full-time job for a while if he can keep this up. Jose Vizcaino, ss, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 68 17 2 0 0 8 6 0 5 0 10 1 1 .250 .301 .279 .581 6 Prorated LA 270 67 7 0 0 31 23 0 19 0 39 3 3 .248 .298 .274 .572 23 Actual LA 266 67 9 0 1 27 29 1 20 0 23 2 1 .252 .304 .297 .601 24 Vizcaino's not much of a hitter, but he can play both middle infield positions, and that should be enough to keep him on a big-league roster as a utility infielder for a while. Tripp Cromer, ss, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 69 16 2 1 2 6 9 0 4 1 14 1 1 .232 .270 .377 .647 7 Prorated LA 52 12 1 0 1 4 6 0 3 0 10 0 0 .231 .273 .308 .580 4 Actual LA 52 10 0 0 2 5 8 0 5 0 10 0 0 .192 .263 .308 .571 3 The most important news of Cromer's 1999 season was the discovery of an irregular heartbeat that kept him on the DL for almost two months. And that was after Cromer made it all the way back to the majors after Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Cromer may not have much of a baseball career left, but there's a lot of life ahead of him, and I wish him better health than he's been saddled with in recent years. Gary Sheffield, lf, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 507 143 27 1 26 90 90 11 118 14 66 17 8 .282 .423 .493 .916 116 Prorated LA 522 147 27 1 26 92 92 11 121 14 68 17 8 .282 .422 .487 .909 117 Actual LA 549 165 20 0 34 103 101 4 101 4 64 11 5 .301 .407 .523 .930 124 Sheffield may not strike as much fear into pitchers' hearts as he did a few years ago, but he can still turn on a fastball, and he remains one of the best all-around hitters in the game. He moved from right field to left this year, so Raul Mondesi could have his old position back. With the addition of Shawn Green, it looks as if Sheffield will stay in left for as long as he remains a Dodger. Trenidad Hubbard, lf, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 66 17 3 0 2 10 7 1 7 0 12 3 2 .258 .333 .394 .727 8 Prorated LA 105 27 4 0 3 16 11 1 11 0 19 4 3 .257 .331 .381 .711 13 Actual LA 105 33 5 0 1 23 13 0 13 1 24 4 3 .314 .387 .390 .777 16 Despite a long history of terrific minor-league stats, Hubbard has only been given 497 big-league atbats in his career. He's done pretty well in those scattered opportunities and looks like he could be a useful reserve outfielder for a few more years. But it won't be with the Dodgers, as Hubbard has just signed a minor-league deal with the Braves. Devon White, cf, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 583 146 32 1 18 77 78 11 49 4 116 22 9 .250 .317 .401 .718 76 Prorated LA 468 117 25 0 14 61 62 8 39 3 93 17 7 .250 .315 .393 .709 60 Actual LA 474 127 20 2 14 60 68 11 39 2 88 19 5 .268 .337 .407 .744 67 From the late 1980s to the early 1990s, White was the best defensive center fielder in baseball and a good base stealer. Because of that speed, he was generally used as a leadoff hitter despite low batting averages, modest walk totals, and oodles of strikeouts. He was always much better suited to bat lower in the order, and managers have finally figured this out in the past few seasons. He was used exclusively in the #5 and #6 slots this year, and that's where he belongs. Even though White produced a little more than was expected this year, he's no longer an asset. His range has declined substantially and all of his offensive numbers are below the league average for his position. In fact, his OPS was below the league average for every position but pitcher and shortstop, so he's even being outhit by the catchers and second basemen, and a championship team needs more offense than this from its center fielder. Todd Hollandsworth, cf, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 98 26 5 1 2 13 12 0 6 0 20 2 2 .265 .308 .398 .706 12 Prorated LA 267 71 13 2 5 35 32 0 16 0 54 5 5 .266 .307 .386 .693 31 Actual LA 261 74 12 2 9 39 32 1 24 1 61 5 2 .284 .345 .448 .793 42 Hollandsworth made a splash in his rookie season of 1996 when he batted .291 with a .437 slugging average and 21 steals as a 23-year-old. He struggled mightily in 1997 and then missed a chunk of 1998 to shoulder surgery, but that didn't stop him from asking to be traded last winter because he didn't want to be a fourth outfielder. Well, he wasn't traded, and he was the fourth outfielder, and he finally approached his 1996 levels again, though he's still below the league average for offensive production by outfielders. Raul Mondesi, rf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 573 164 31 5 27 85 83 4 34 5 105 19 10 .286 .329 .499 .828 92 Prorated LA 634 181 34 5 29 94 91 4 37 5 116 21 11 .285 .327 .492 .820 100 Actual LA 601 152 29 5 33 98 99 3 71 6 134 36 9 .253 .332 .483 .815 104 Mondesi started and ended the season very hot -- 26 of his 33 homers came in April, May and September -- but had an awful three-month stretch in the middle. Despite these fluctuations, and despite hitting about 30 fewer singles and taking about 30 more walks, he wound up producing at his normal level. I lost some respect for Mondesi in 1998 when he complained about being moved from RF to CF when Gary Sheffield was acquired from Florida. Seems he preferred RF because he won two Gold Gloves at that position. There's no question that it was the right move for the team, but Mondesi fought it every step of the way. Now he's Toronto's problem, as he was the key player in the trade for Shawn Green after the season. Dave Hansen, ph/1b/3b, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection LA 64 16 2 0 1 6 7 0 10 0 13 0 0 .250 .351 .328 .679 8 Prorated LA 116 29 3 0 1 10 12 0 18 0 23 0 0 .250 .351 .302 .652 14 Actual LA 107 27 8 1 2 14 17 2 26 0 20 0 0 .252 .404 .402 .806 20 Has become one of the game's top pinch-hitting specialists thanks to his ability to get on base. In the past six seasons, Hansen has accumulated 692 atbats in 494 games, a remarkably low 1.4 per game. In that span, his average is .292 and he's walked 122 times for a .399 on-base percentage. Key PitchersThe Dodgers allowed 132 more runs than projected in a league where the average increase was about half that. Kevin Brown did his part, and so did Ismael Valdes to a lesser extent, but the rest of the rotation bombed big time. The next three rotation starters -- Chan Ho Park (+44), Carlos Perez (+37) and Darren Dreifort (+27) -- allowed a combined 108 more earned runs than projected. That's basically the whole story right there. The bullpen wasn't anything special, but it was right at the league average in relief ERA, so it would have been fine if the starters were doing their part. Jeff Shaw had another very solid year as the closer. Kevin Brown, starter, age 34 (as of July 1, 1999)ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 2.68 32 32 16 7 0 225 201 9 46 186 .242 .600 Prorated LA 2.68 36 36 18 8 0 256 228 10 52 211 .242 .600 Actual LA 3.00 35 35 18 9 0 252 210 19 59 221 .222 .609 When the Dodgers signed him to a 7-year, $105 million contract last winter, I don't think there was anyone who doubted that Brown would continue to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. And that he was, matching his projection in a year when offense skyrocketed around the league. With a little more run support (he received 4.49 runs per game, or about half a run less than the Dodgers normal output), he would have been a 20-game winner and more of a factor in the Cy Young voting. The concern about the contract was the length, so we won't really know whether this was a good investment until we find out whether Brown can keep this up for at least another 3-4 years. Chan Ho Park, starter, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 3.17 32 32 15 9 0 213 177 18 96 188 .228 .664 Prorated LA 3.17 32 32 15 9 0 210 174 18 95 185 .228 .664 Actual LA 5.23 33 33 13 11 0 194 208 31 100 174 .276 .841 After three years of wildness that was compensated for, and then some, by a terrific hits-to-innings ratio, Park suddenly began getting hit and hit hard. This was a surprise, for Park was coming off a three-year stretch that saw him compile a 34-22 record and a 3.57 ERA, and he finished 1998 very strong. Carlos Perez, starter, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 3.68 32 32 13 10 0 218 211 21 55 114 .256 .695 Prorated LA 3.68 15 15 6 5 0 102 99 10 26 53 .256 .695 Actual LA 7.43 17 16 2 10 0 90 116 23 39 40 .317 .965 Ditto. Perez was also coming off three straight seasons with an ERA well under 4.00, and suddenly started giving up hits and homers in bunches. Perhaps he was hurt and/or spooked after getting hit in the elbow with a line drive in the first week of the season. But he lost his rotation spot in July and spent a couple of months in AAA before getting called back in September. His season ended a little early after he was took another line drive off his shin. Ismael Valdes, starter, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 3.34 32 32 13 10 0 218 198 18 65 155 .243 .668 Prorated LA 3.34 31 31 13 10 0 212 192 17 63 151 .243 .668 Actual LA 3.98 32 32 9 14 0 203 213 32 58 143 .270 .767 Beginning to see a trend here? Valdes is going in the wrong direction, having hit a peak at age 22-23 when he put together back-to-back seasons with a combined record of 25-18 and a 3.01 ERA. The difference between his projection and his actual results was a homer every two games. But things may not be quite as bad as they look. Valdes developed back spasms late in the year and gave up 24 earned runs in his last 23 innings. If not for that last month, his ERA would have been 3.29. If the back problem doesn't turn out to be chronic, Valdes may well bounce right back. But he'll have to do it in a much less pitcher-friendly park (Wrigley Field) now that he's been traded to the Cubs, and that might make his numbers look worse even if he's actually pitching more effectively. Darren Dreifort, starter, age 27ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 3.44 27 27 10 8 0 168 149 10 65 156 .241 .667 Prorated LA 3.44 30 30 11 9 0 185 164 11 72 172 .241 .667 Actual LA 4.79 30 29 13 13 0 179 177 20 76 140 .260 .743 Like the others, homers were Dreifort's undoing. It should be clear that the Dodger's woes cannot be blamed on defense, as the five-man rotation gave up 59 more homers than projected. So you can't blame this collapse on defense. Eric Gagne, starter, age 23ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual LA 2.10 5 5 1 1 0 30 18 3 15 30 .175 .581 Prior to 1999, Gagne hadn't thrown a pitch above A ball. But after going 12-4 with a 2.63 ERA in 26 starts at AA, he made the leap to the bigs and continued to be effective. He can't reasonably be expected to have a sub-3.00 ERA again next year, but he should be able to fill the void left by the Valdes trade. Mike Judd, swing man, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 5.19 9 0 1 1 0 17 19 3 10 14 .279 .831 Prorated LA 5.19 13 0 1 1 0 26 28 4 15 21 .279 .831 Actual LA 5.46 7 4 3 1 0 28 30 4 12 22 .280 .760 After being pretty successful in the lower minors, Judd has yet to perform well at AAA or above. At AAA Albuquerque in 1999, his ERA ballooned to 6.67, though he continued to strike out a lot of hitters (122 in 110 innings). That strikeout rate (40 Ks in 42 major-league innings) and the fact that Albuquerque is a hitter-friendly environment should earn him more opportunities to prove that he can learn how to pitch, too. Jamie Arnold, long reliever, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual LA 5.48 36 3 2 4 1 69 81 6 34 26 .300 .813 We didn't project a role for him in 1999 because his results in the minors have been mediocre-to-awful. And he wasn't that good in the big-leagues either, walking a man every two innings and allowing opposing hitters to bat .300. He did manage to keep the ball in the park pretty well, but there's precious little in his record to suggest he'll ever be a good major-league pitcher. Mike Maddux, long reliever, age 37ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.07 53 0 4 4 0 73 79 6 26 45 .278 .754 Prorated Mon 4.07 4 0 0 0 0 6 6 0 2 4 .278 .754 Actual Mon 9.00 4 0 0 0 0 5 9 1 3 4 .409 1.045 Prorated LA 4.07 39 0 3 3 0 54 58 4 19 33 .278 .754 Actual LA 3.29 49 0 1 1 0 55 54 5 19 41 .261 .718 Prorated Tot 4.07 43 0 3 3 0 60 65 5 21 37 .278 .754 Actual Tot 3.77 53 0 1 1 0 60 63 6 22 45 .275 .751 Fortunately for the Dodgers, Montreal bailed on Maddux after only five innings. Most of the time, those short stretches don't mean a thing, and this was another good example. By the end of the year, Maddux had put together a very typical season for him. Nothing spectacular, of course, but enough to give the Dodgers some solid innings. Matt Herges, long reliever, age 29ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual LA 4.07 17 0 0 2 0 24 24 5 8 18 .255 .820 Herges had a string of good seasons in A and AA ball through 1996, but that was partly because he was older than most of the other kids. He didn't get his first shot at AAA until age 26, much later than star-quality players do, and he was hit VERY hard at that level in 1996-98. It was only in 1999 that he was finally able to put together a better-than-league-average season. That earned him a shot in the Dodgers pen, and he was OK. Maybe he's a late bloomer. Doug Bochtler, middle reliever, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual LA 5.54 12 0 0 0 0 13 11 3 6 7 .224 .806 This veteran reliever was acquired from Toronto in May, sent down to AAA in June, and not heard from again in 1999. Bochtler's career began with two very good seasons (1995-96) in the San Diego bullpen (3.24, 83 hits allowed in 111 innings, 113 strikeouts), but he couldn't find the strike zone in 1997 and hasn't been the same since. Jeff Kubenka, middle reliever, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 2.58 53 0 6 2 0 77 58 6 36 80 .209 .615 Prorated LA 2.58 7 0 1 0 0 10 8 1 5 11 .209 .615 Actual LA 11.74 6 0 0 1 0 8 13 1 4 2 .371 .911 Well, I guess our projections were just a little optimistic here. But his minor-league record is extremely impressive. In 1997, at three levels, he allowed only 45 hits and 19 walks while striking out 110 in 72 innings. In 1998, he did quite well at AAA Albuquerque (2.45, 32 hits, 12 walks, and 40 Ks in 40 innings) and impressed in a short stint with the Dodgers. But he didn't make the club coming out of camp. Then he bombed (5 ER in 1-2/3 innings) in his first appearance after being called up in April, earning another trip to AAA shortly after that. And then he got rocked again (6 runs, 4 earned, in 1/3 inning) in his first appearance after getting called up in May. In between, we was very good at AAA Albuquerque again. But his Dodger days are over, as the club put him on waivers and lost him to the Diamondbacks, who sent him to AAA in December. I'm surprised the Dodgers didn't have more patience with him, given his age and his ability to deliver good results in a hitter-friendly AAA environment. Onan Masaoka, middle reliever, age 21ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 6.52 23 0 1 3 0 29 33 5 20 26 .282 .802 Prorated LA 6.52 50 0 2 7 0 63 72 11 43 57 .282 .802 Actual LA 4.32 54 0 2 4 1 67 55 8 47 61 .222 .727 Masaoka's success may explain why Kubenka wasn't given more time to prove himself. Both are lefties, and the Dodgers clearly feel that Masaoka has the greater potential. I can't say that I disagree, as this was solid debut for a 21-year-old. He definitely needs to improve his control, but you've gotta like a guy who can hold hitters to a .222 average and strikeout almost a hitter an inning at that age. Pedro Borbon, lefty specialist, age 31ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 4.40 70 0 2 2 1 47 52 4 21 31 .284 .784 Prorated LA 4.40 73 0 2 2 1 49 54 4 22 32 .284 .784 Actual LA 4.09 70 0 4 3 1 51 39 5 29 33 .209 .661 You have to feel good about Borbon's performance after he lost the entire 1997 and 1998 seasons after major surgery on his left elbow. He didn't make it all the way back to the level he was at in 1995-96, but he held lefties to a .156 average and a .244 slugging percentage, and was effective against righties as well. Borbon was part of the trade that brought Shawn Green from the Blue Jays, so he'll be pitching in Toronto this year. Alan Mills, setup man, age 32ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 3.11 40 0 4 2 0 55 42 6 37 46 .212 .685 Prorated LA 3.11 54 0 5 3 0 74 56 8 50 62 .212 .685 Actual LA 3.73 68 0 3 4 0 72 70 10 43 49 .261 .822 It's tempting to describe this as a typical Mills season, since he matched his career norms in most respects. But the ERA is quite misleading -- when a pitcher puts 113 runners on base in 72 innings, and give up a homer every 7 innings, his ERA is normally in the low 5's. Further, his career averages were compiled in the AL, and you're supposed to get better when you move to a pitcher's park and no longer have to face the DH. In other words, this was a disappointing performance despite the respectable ERA. Antonio Osuna, setup man, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 2.64 70 0 7 3 3 102 77 10 43 116 .209 .632 Prorated LA 2.64 4 0 0 0 0 5 4 1 2 6 .209 .632 Actual LA 7.71 5 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 3 5 .222 .697 A lost year, and more. Osuna had surgery in April to remove a bone spur from his elbow and was expected back within a couple of months. But the elbow never responded, and he was later diagnosed with a ligament problem. It gets worse. He underwent tendon transplant surgery (the "Tommy John" procedure) in September, and that means a 1-2 year rehab. It's a shame, because his career was off to a very good start. Jeff Shaw, closer, age 32ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 2.61 70 0 5 5 36 79 72 7 14 56 .243 .633 Prorated LA 2.61 63 0 5 5 32 72 65 6 13 50 .243 .633 Actual LA 2.78 64 0 2 4 34 68 64 6 15 43 .242 .626 This makes four straight years in which Shaw has held opponents under a hit per inning, kept the ball in the park, and demonstrated outstanding control. In the first year of that stretch, he was one of the game's best setup men. Since then, he's saved 124 games for the Reds and Dodgers. OutlookThe Dodgers have been busy, making four trades and signing four free agents since the end of the season. But they've done nothing to improve the starting rotation that was the source of their problems in 1999. If Park and Dreifort return to form, doing nothing is exactly the right thing, so these will be two key guys to watch. A lot of their attention has been focused on the bullpen, even though the pen was adequate last year. Pedro Borbon was traded to Toronto, but everyone else is still around, and they'll be joined by newcomers Terry Adams, Gregg Olson, Mike Fetters, and Orel Hershiser. It should be noted that none of these guys is a sure thing to succeed -- the first three were shaky in 1999 and Hershiser is 40 and hasn't been a reliever since 1984. The trade for Shawn Green should be a big plus. Green is a better hitter and a better fielder than Mondesi, he's younger, and he appears to have a much better attitude. On the other hand, with the trade of 2B Eric Young to the Cubs, it's not clear who will play second (Counsell?, Vizcaino?). There's doesn't appear to be anyone on the horizon who can match Young's on-base percentage. Nevertheless, I think the offense will be OK. Hundley and Beltre should improve, and that would help offset the likely declines of others who had better-than-normal production in 1999. If the starting pitchers come around, they'll be in the thick of what looks to be a very interesting division race in 2000. Projections and text: Copyright © 1999. Diamond Mind,
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