Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Minnesota Twins By Jon Dunkle This article takes a look at how the Minnesota Twins did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 713 686 Runs allowed 933 845 Run Margin -220 -161 Wins 60 64 Pythagorean wins 60 63 Placement 5th 5th The Twins didn't look as if they had much to look forward to from a win standpoint in 1999. It became obvious that the Twins would rely primarily on young, unproven players as the core of both their batting order and pitching staff. Hometown hero Paul Molitor retired after the 1998 season and another local favorite, Terry Steinbach, was hinting that he might do the same. The only veteran presence was in the bullpen and the only player who could be considered a current star was Brad Radke. Despite some surprises, in the end things worked out as they appeared they would. Closer Rick Aguilera was dealt early in the season to the Cubs. Setup man Mike Trombley became the interim closer and then chose to take the closer opening in Baltimore after the season ended. Steinbach waited to the end of the season to retire. Radke continued to lead the staff but his status as a bright star was tarnished by a subpar performance. The bullpen, led by veterans Bob Wells and Hector Carrasco, performed admirably. Of the young players, a few showed that they may be around for awhile. Corie Koskie and Jacque Jones made an impact at the plate and in the field. Eric Milton threw a no-hitter and established himself as a potential All-Star. Joe Mays came out of nowhere to become a solid number three starter. The Twins hitting was even worse than expected, and those expectations were far from lofty. Ron Coomer led the team with 16 homers. Minnesota was last in the league in slugging and had only one more walk than the league-worst White Sox. If there is one thing that is consistent with Tom Kelly-managed teams is that they are fundamentally sound. And despite an incredibly young and inexperienced team, the Twins committed the third fewest errors in the major leagues. And although the pitching staff had the worst slugging percentage allowed in the league, the defense and a staff of control pitchers which allowed the second fewest walks in the American League kept the ERA in the middle of the pack. Key Position PlayersHaving a team with six everyday players who are classified as rookies is a tough way to win ballgames. And the few veterans in the lineup didn't help all that much, either, as the seasons turned in by Terry Steinbach, Todd Walker, and Marty Cordova were OK but nothing special. Corey Koskie led the team in hitting, veteran infielder Ron Coomer led the team in home runs, and the outfield has some young players with potential in Torii Hunter, Chad Allen, and Jacque Jones. Matt Lawton never returned to his standard of play after being hit in the face by a pitch. Rookie first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz struggled at the plate. Terry Steinbach, c, age 37 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 502 121 29 2 18 61 67 4 43 2 111 1 2 .241 .304 .414 .719 60 Prorated Min 345 83 19 1 12 41 46 2 29 1 76 0 1 .241 .302 .406 .707 40 Actual Min 338 96 16 4 4 35 42 2 38 1 54 2 2 .284 .358 .391 .748 47 After playing in the fewest games since his rookie year in 1986, the longtime catcher made the decision to retire after the season. Javier Valentin, c, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 95 20 4 0 2 8 11 0 5 0 16 0 0 .211 .248 .316 .563 7 Prorated Min 230 48 9 0 4 19 26 0 12 0 38 0 0 .209 .246 .300 .546 16 Actual Min 218 54 12 1 5 22 28 1 22 0 39 0 0 .248 .313 .381 .694 28 A strong-armed catcher who has shown improvement in his ability to hit major league pitching. The switch-hitter batted over .300 against lefties this year but has shown more power from the left side. He'll be the starting catcher until Matt LeCroy is ready. A.J. Pierzynski, c, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 71 15 2 0 1 8 7 0 2 1 8 0 0 .211 .230 .282 .511 5 Prorated Min 22 4 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 .182 .182 .182 .364 1 Actual Min 22 6 2 0 0 3 3 1 1 0 4 0 0 .273 .333 .364 .697 3 Pierzynski is a notch better than Valentin, both offensively and defensively, and may find himself as prospect Matt LeCroy's backup in a couple of years. In 2000, he will likely platoon with Valentin. Ron Coomer, 1b/3b, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 618 169 29 1 17 67 89 0 23 3 89 3 2 .273 .296 .406 .702 69 Prorated Min 477 130 22 0 13 51 68 0 17 2 68 2 1 .273 .295 .400 .695 52 Actual Min 467 123 25 1 16 53 65 1 30 1 69 2 1 .263 .307 .424 .731 57 The veteran Coomer began the 1999 season as the third baseman but moved to first when rookie Doug Mientkiewicz failed to hit well enough to keep the position. Coomer has been showing improvement at an age when most players begin to decline. His strike zone judgement has improved every year since he's been in the majors and he continues to improve his power numbers also. With Steinbach gone, he may be the only position player over 30 on the team and will be counted on for his veteran leadership. Doug Mientkiewicz, 1b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 562 139 40 0 16 92 80 5 88 5 61 15 5 .247 .352 .404 .755 86 Prorated Min 321 79 22 0 9 52 45 2 50 2 34 8 2 .246 .349 .399 .748 48 Actual Min 327 75 21 3 2 34 32 4 43 3 51 1 1 .229 .324 .330 .655 35 A defensive whiz, the Twins thought they could make him their everyday first baseman. He was coming off a monster season at AA in 1998 where he hit .323 with 45 doubles and 16 homers and had walked almost 100 times for the second straight season. Unfortunately for the Twins, he wasn't able to hit major league pitching. David Ortiz, 1b, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 100 28 7 0 4 16 17 1 10 1 26 1 0 .280 .348 .470 .818 16 Prorated Min 22 6 1 0 0 3 3 0 2 0 5 0 0 .273 .333 .318 .652 2 Actual Min 20 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 0 12 0 0 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 Meanwhile, while Mientkiewicz was struggling, a first baseman who played in almost half of the Twins games in 1998 was pounding the ball (.315, 30 HR, 110 RBI) at AAA. A year ago, Ortiz was expected to start the season at 1B but had difficulties with manager Tom Kelly in spring training. He was sent to AAA, where he reportedly sulked about his demotion. After a late-season callup, he looked like he was still sulking, striking out in 12 of his 20 at bats and failing to get a hit. Since the only way Tom Kelly will be ousted as manager of the Twins would be from new ownership, Ortiz better find a way to get along with the manager or he may be at AAA again in 2000. Todd Walker, 2b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 611 179 41 2 15 92 76 3 55 9 84 18 8 .293 .350 .440 .790 92 Prorated Min 528 154 35 1 12 79 65 2 47 7 72 15 6 .292 .348 .430 .778 78 Actual Min 531 148 37 4 6 62 46 1 52 5 83 18 10 .279 .343 .397 .740 70 Walker is a good major league hitter (although he has problems with lefties) but may not have a long-term home defensively. He was a 2B in college but played third early in his professional career. He was switched back to second, but has not shown enough range at that position. It's not clear that he'll hit enough to DH or play third or defend well enough to be in the middle of the infield. Cleatus Davidson, 2b, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Min 22 3 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 4 2 0 .136 .136 .136 .273 0 The Twins would love to be able to use Davidson as their everyday second baseman. He just doesn't look like he has the offensive skills to handle it. The best he has hit in the minors over a full season is .255. He has oodles of speed and is a fantastic second baseman defensively. He is also a good bunter. But he strikes out way too much for a non-power hitter (114 in 1999 and 90 or more for the last four years). Brent Gates, 2b/3b, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 89 22 5 0 1 9 11 0 8 0 11 0 0 .247 .306 .337 .643 9 Prorated Min 311 76 17 0 3 31 38 0 27 0 38 0 0 .244 .302 .328 .630 31 Actual Min 306 78 13 2 3 40 38 1 34 1 56 1 3 .255 .328 .340 .668 33 Gates is a useful utility man. But with Denny Hocking around, the Twins felt no need to have two roster spots filled with that type of player, and Gates' contract was not renewed. Corey Koskie, 3b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 494 115 23 2 23 73 81 6 47 5 105 9 5 .233 .303 .427 .730 62 Prorated Min 349 81 16 1 16 51 57 4 33 3 74 6 3 .232 .303 .421 .724 44 Actual Min 342 106 21 0 11 42 58 5 40 4 72 4 4 .310 .387 .468 .855 63 Koskie did not fare well in his major league debut in 1998 and while he did have good numbers at AAA, he played in a league and park that inflates offensive stats. As a result, there was not much reason to expect that he would be a .300 hitter in his first full season. He did just that, but was more of a line drive hitter than he had been in the minors. He had a tough time against lefties, managing only one extra base hit in 45 at bats. He saw some time in right field as Kelly tried to get as many bats in the lineup as possible. Koskie is a pretty good fielding third baseman and should stay there for the whole season in 2000. Cristian Guzman, ss, age 21AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 522 125 26 3 0 57 34 0 5 1 90 16 10 .239 .246 .301 .547 35 Prorated Min 438 104 21 2 0 47 28 0 4 0 75 13 8 .237 .244 .295 .539 35 Actual Min 420 95 12 3 1 47 26 3 22 0 90 9 7 .226 .267 .276 .543 32 Although the Twins were going with a youth movement, handing the shortstop job to Guzman was surprising. The switch-hitter was overmatched but looked good from the right side, batting .296 with 9 extra base hits, 2 more than he had in three times the at bats against righthanders. He also struggled defensively, being tied for second in the American League in errors and showing inconsistency; making some spectacular plays but botching some easier ones. He has a very strong arm and is a favorite of Tom Kelly's, and that should give him the ability to improve without fearing for his job. [TT: Among all major-leaguers with at least 400 AB in 1999, Guzman was the least productive hitter, with an OPS that was 34 points worse than runner-up Mike Caruso's. Kelly sacrificed an awful lot of offense and some defense to give Guzman some experience. It'll be interesting to see whether this pays off in the long run, and how soon that payoff arrives.] Denny Hocking, utility, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 111 24 4 1 1 15 10 0 8 0 22 1 1 .216 .267 .297 .564 9 Prorated Min 383 82 13 3 3 51 34 0 27 0 75 3 3 .214 .264 .287 .551 29 Actual Min 386 103 18 2 7 47 41 3 22 1 54 11 7 .267 .307 .378 .685 43 Hocking played every position last year except pitcher and catcher in what was the closest thing to a full season Hocking has had in his seven years with the Twins. His 199 results are similar to those of his 1997 season, the only other season where he has had 250 or more plate appearances. Chad Allen, lf, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 69 14 3 0 0 10 8 1 5 0 10 1 0 .203 .267 .246 .513 5 Prorated Min 481 97 20 0 0 69 55 6 34 0 69 6 0 .202 .263 .243 .506 31 Actual Min 481 133 21 3 10 69 46 2 37 1 89 14 7 .277 .330 .395 .725 62 Allen was promoted to the Twins after just two full seasons in the minors. He had a spectacular spring training and was given an opportunity to play left field when Marty Cordova was injured. He did well as a rookie but his ability is more suited for a fourth outfielder than a starting leftfielder. He also tailed off quite a bit in the second half, hitting .254 with a .314 OBP after the All-Star break. [TT: I was very surprised by his performance last year. In 1997-98, he batted only in the .260s at AA, and there was little reason to believe he'd do as well in the majors.] Chris Latham, lf, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 434 102 14 2 6 63 39 2 47 2 114 21 10 .235 .312 .318 .630 46 Prorated Min 21 5 0 0 0 3 1 0 2 0 5 1 0 .238 .304 .238 .542 2 Actual Min 22 2 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 13 0 0 .091 .083 .091 .174 0 Latham was beaten out of a spot on the roster by the rookie Chad Allen. He hit .300 for the third straight season at AAA but failed to hit in a late season callup. He is now a lifetime .152 hitter in the majors in 138 at bats over three seasons. Torii Hunter, cf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 202 46 12 0 3 23 22 2 8 0 36 4 4 .228 .263 .332 .595 17 Prorated Min 394 89 23 0 5 44 42 3 15 0 70 7 7 .226 .259 .322 .581 31 Actual Min 384 98 17 2 9 52 35 6 26 1 72 10 6 .255 .309 .380 .689 44 Hunter has been a well-regarded prospect for the Twins despite his struggles during his six year professional career. Hunter is a tremendous athlete but has not been able to parlay his athleticism into a successful baseball career. He is a diligent worker and has improved his game. He is considered a good fielder and may develop into a solid major league centerfielder. Jacque Jones, cf, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 72 18 5 0 3 10 11 0 3 1 16 2 1 .250 .280 .444 .724 9 Prorated Min 329 82 23 0 14 46 50 0 14 3 73 9 4 .249 .280 .447 .727 41 Actual Min 322 93 24 2 9 54 44 4 17 1 63 3 4 .289 .329 .460 .789 47 Jacque Jones is a good defensive outfielder and a notorious free-swinger who will likely get the nod over Hunter as the centerfielder in 2000. Marty Cordova, dh/rf, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 563 143 30 3 15 70 87 6 54 3 123 6 6 .254 .323 .398 .721 70 Prorated Min 436 110 23 2 11 54 67 4 41 2 95 4 4 .252 .320 .390 .709 52 Actual Min 425 121 28 3 14 62 70 9 48 2 96 13 4 .285 .365 .464 .828 69 Cordova is another example of the importance of attitude to manager Tom Kelly. Cordova had a season in 1996 (.309,16,111) that made many people think he was a blossoming star. He suffered from foot and neck injuries in 1997 and 1998 and also was benched often by Kelly in those two seasons. He complained of shoulder pain in spring training and while he insisted he could play the field, Kelly went with rookie in the outfield and made Cordova the designated hitter. He had his best season since 1996 but the Twins opted not to pick up his option and he is now a free agent. Matt Lawton, rf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Min 557 145 34 4 18 89 76 13 80 4 72 12 6 .260 .364 .433 .797 92 Prorated Min 406 105 24 2 13 64 55 9 58 2 52 8 4 .259 .362 .424 .786 66 Actual Min 406 105 18 0 7 58 54 6 57 7 42 26 4 .259 .353 .355 .708 56 In June, Lawton was hit in the face by a pitched ball that fractured his eye socket. He missed about a month and was unable to find his power stroke when he returned, slugging only .304 after after being hit. He stole 26 bases, two fewer than he had in his entire major league career until this season, and was only caught four times, which gave him the American League lead in stolen base percentage. He is one of the few Twins who draws walks and may be given a shot at the leadoff slot in 2000 if he shows in spring training that he has fully recovered. Key PitchersThe bright spot of the season came from the success of the pitching staff. Brad Radke was his usual workhorse self and led the team in wins. Eric Milton threw a no-hitter. Rookie Joe Mays looked like a legitimate major league starter. The bullpen, led by veterans Hector Carrasco, Bob Wells, Eddie Guardado, and Mike Trombley was the team's strength, despite the early season loss of closer Rick Aguilera. The Twins have a number of young arms still in the system and pitching and catching is likely the strong suit down on the farm. Brad Radke, starter, age 26 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 4.13 32 32 12 12 0 216 223 25 44 146 .268 .729 Prorated Min 4.13 33 33 12 12 0 219 226 25 45 148 .268 .729 Actual Min 3.75 33 33 12 14 0 219 239 28 44 121 .280 .757 At various times, the Twins have talked about signing Radke to a long-term contract or dealing him in an effort to get something in return before he becomes a free agent after the 2000 season. He is considered one of the game's top young starters in part because he has thrown 200 or more innings for the last four years and because he is one of the best control pitchers in baseball. But he has also been suffering from a disconcerting slide in his strikeout rate over the last three seasons. He had 6.53 per nine innings in 1997, the year he won 20 games, then dropped to 6.15 in 1998 and an alarming 4.98 in 1999. Although Radke is far too young to be considered washed up, one has to wonder whether his extensive workload is doing him harm. His 3.75 ERA of last year is deceptive, too. Based on what he surrendered, his ERA should have been more in line with his career 4.30 mark. Eric Milton, starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 4.93 32 32 9 11 0 173 187 23 71 110 .275 .796 Prorated Min 4.93 36 36 10 12 0 194 209 26 79 123 .275 .796 Actual Min 4.49 34 34 7 11 0 206 190 28 63 163 .243 .706 If I had to pick who I thought would be the best American League pitcher in the first decade of the 2000s, this would be my pick. Milton already has authored the most maligned no-hitter since Joe Cowley's 7-1, 7 walk no-hitter in 1986. The fact is Milton retired major leaguers without a hit for nine innings, even if they were primarily September callups. But consider that only Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez allowed fewer runners per nine innings in the American League. The no-hitter was the culmination of an amazing second half where he allowed just 111 runners in 103.2 innings, striking out 98. La Troy Hawkins, starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 5.74 32 32 8 14 0 187 229 26 63 107 .305 .843 Prorated Min 5.74 31 31 8 14 0 180 221 25 61 103 .305 .843 Actual Min 6.66 33 33 10 14 0 174 238 29 60 103 .323 .880 You have to think that one of these days, the Twins are going to give up on Hawkins. After 98 major league starts, you have to say that the career 6.16 ERA is legitimate. I like finding comparisons between players. Take a look at the career statistics of Hawkins against another once-well-regarded pitcher: Hawkins - 27 years old, born in December. 98 GS, 521.1 IP, 357 ER, 26-44 record, 6.16 ERA. Mystery pitcher - 28 years old, born in December. 80 GS, 509.1 IP, 353 ER, 22-37 record, 6.24 ERA. Who's the mystery pitcher? A former first-round draft choice by the name of Todd Van Poppel. Van Poppel has been bouncing from team to team, from the rotation to the bullpen, and from the minors to the majors. The same thing is likely to happen to Hawkins. Joe Mays, starter/long reliever, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 7.62 23 0 1 3 0 28 41 4 14 23 .333 .837 Prorated Min 7.62 5 16 0 153 222 22 76 124 .333 .837 Actual Min 4.37 49 20 6 11 0 171 179 24 67 115 .270 .778 Mays began the season in relief but was called upon to start in June as the Twins had problems finding anyone to successfully do so other than Lincoln and Radke. He filled the spot nicely to begin with, going 4-1 in his first two months of starting. Mays is not a very durable pitcher despite the Twins letting him go the distance in two of his starts. The Twins need starters and he will probably be the number four starter in 2000 but down the road a return to the bullpen may be the key to his long-term success. Mike Lincoln, starter, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 6.59 27 27 6 13 0 150 208 21 52 91 .323 .800 Prorated Min 6.59 14 14 3 7 0 76 105 11 26 46 .323 .800 Actual Min 6.84 18 15 3 10 0 76 102 11 26 27 .321 .893 Lincoln performed well in the minors before this season, mostly in friendly ballparks and/or leagues. He had established himself as a pretty good control pitcher but had problems facing higher caliber hitters. He was demoted after the All-Star break to AAA and had no success there, either. He could stand to have a full season at AAA. Dan Perkins, swing man, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 7.76 34 4 2 5 0 60 84 11 26 36 .333 .945 Prorated Min 7.76 49 6 3 7 0 88 122 16 38 52 .333 .945 Actual Min 6.54 29 12 1 7 0 87 117 14 43 44 .326 .947 Mays' predecessor in the rotation. Perkins replaced a faltering starter in Benj Sampson, but did not fare much better than Sampson and found himself in the bullpen, too. Perkins has had a long and unremarkable minor league career. The Twins have enough young arms to push him aside. Jason Ryan, starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Min 4.87 8 8 1 4 0 41 46 9 17 15 .286 .891 Acquired early in the season from the Cubs for Rick Aguilera, Ryan had spent three of the past four years at the A level. In 1998, he spent the season at AA going 3-13 with a 4.88 ERA. He opened 1999 on a tear, going 5-0 with a 1.41 ERA at AA before being sent to the Twins. The Twins kept him at AA for about six weeks, moved him up to AAA, and then called him up in August to be part of the rotation. At Minnesota, Ryan pitched tentatively but was also behind quickly in almost all of his eight starts. He showed that he has major league ability and will probably make the rotation in 2000. Benj Sampson, long relief, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 6.38 32 32 8 13 0 165 212 27 69 124 .311 .878 Prorated Min 6.38 14 14 4 6 0 74 95 12 31 56 .311 .878 Actual Min 8.11 30 4 3 2 0 71 107 17 34 56 .351 .984 A member of the rotation coming out of spring training. Sampson was moved to the bullpen after three starts and then was demoted in August when the Twins decided to bring up Jason Ryan. Sampson allowed an ungodly number of homeruns and showed little indication of promise. Hector Carrasco, long relief, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 3.91 53 0 4 3 0 71 74 6 36 55 .270 .741 Prorated Min 3.91 34 0 3 2 0 46 47 4 23 35 .270 .741 Actual Min 4.96 40 0 2 3 1 49 48 3 18 35 .261 .698 In a season that saw a number of players fight career- and life-threatening illnesses, many people overlooked Carrasco's health struggle. Carrasco started experiencing difficulties in spring training and was hospitalized after his hand went numb in a game. It was discovered that he had two blood clots in his arm. He underwent surgery that was thought to be career ending, but Carrasco recovered and found himself back on the mound at the end of June. He had a rough start but then returned to form, posting solid numbers the rest of the way. Mark Redman, swing man, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 6.61 3 3 1 1 0 16 21 2 9 13 .318 .903 Prorated Min 6.61 3 3 1 1 0 14 18 2 8 11 .318 .903 Actual Min 8.53 5 1 1 0 0 13 17 3 7 11 .298 .964 Redman was considered a pitching prospect for the Twins but has been hindered by minor injuries. He broke his hand during the offseason in 1998 and was sent to minor league camp in spring training as he worked on regaining his grip. Last season, he was called up in July only to be placed on the disabled list with a sore shoulder. When he came off he was sent down to AAA and returned to the Twins for two weeks in September. Redman's progress has been slowed after rocketing through the minors in his first full season in 1995. 2000 will be a critical year for him to prove he can pitch at the major league level. Eddie Guardado, setup man, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 4.07 70 0 4 3 1 73 71 11 28 69 .254 .764 Prorated Min 4.07 44 0 3 2 1 46 44 7 18 43 .254 .764 Actual Min 4.50 63 0 2 5 2 48 37 6 25 50 .222 .771 Guardado is one of the better situational lefty relievers in the majors. The Twins realized that and signed him to a long-term contract in the offseason. A strained elbow ligament hampered him for two months and eventually put him on the disabled list. Travis Miller, middle reliever, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 5.50 53 0 3 4 0 69 84 8 37 54 .305 .862 Prorated Min 5.50 36 0 2 3 0 46 57 5 25 36 .305 .862 Actual Min 2.72 52 0 2 2 0 50 55 3 16 40 .284 .711 This was the first season that Miller was not pummeled by extra base hits. He also developed his control and was another pleasant surprise for the Twins bullpen. Bob Wells, setup man, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 5.47 40 0 4 5 0 81 96 16 25 52 .295 .875 Prorated Min 5.47 40 0 4 5 0 82 97 16 25 53 .295 .875 Actual Min 3.81 76 0 8 3 1 87 79 8 28 44 .245 .699 Bob Wells developed into a quality setup man after spending several uneventful years pitching for the Mariners. Part of his success was attributable to his keeping hitters off balance. Batters hit an unfathomable .190 against him when he was behind in the count. The Twins believe they have a find, as they signed Wells to a two-year contract in the offseason. Mike Trombley, closer, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 4.09 70 0 6 4 2 99 94 13 36 88 .251 .733 Prorated Min 4.09 63 0 5 4 2 89 84 12 32 79 .251 .733 Actual Min 4.33 75 0 2 8 24 87 93 15 28 82 .272 .796 The closer by default for the Twins after Aguilera was dealt to the Cubs, Trombley had had success as a setup man and seemed like a good fit for his new role. His 1999 performance was nothing special but was enough to make the Orioles make him the first free agent signing in the offseason. OutlookThere probably will not be as many unknowns in the lineup for 2000 as there were in 1999. Koskie and Guzman should secure the left side of the infield. Ortiz should play somewhere, either first or DH. The Twins have enough legitimate candidates for the outfield to identify three starters. And with LeCroy, Pierzynski, Valentin, and Chad Moeller, they have more young talent at catcher than probably anyone since the Padres had Santiago, Alomar, and Parent. But despite knowing who's going to be playing, one has to ask who is going to perform. Ortiz is the only player on the roster who can be classified as a power threat and there are no great hitters on the team, even if Koskie is able to replicate his .300 season. Without runs, it would take a phenomenal pitching staff to turn this team into a .500 team in 2000. Is this staff phenomenal? No. Good? Yes. Radke and Milton could potentially
become a feared one-two pitch. But whereas Milton's stock is rising, there
has to be some concern about the direction in which Radke is heading.
Joe Mays is unproven but may well be a legitimate starter. Sean Bergman
is the only significant signing of the offseason for the Twins and he
will be part of the rotation. For 2000, it is a stretch to think the Twins might win 70 games but they should have a lot of interesting players to watch. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
Inc. All rights reserved. |
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