Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Montreal Expos By Gary Gillette This article takes a look at how the Montreal Expos did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 702 718 Runs allowed 797 853 Run Margin -95 -135 Wins 71 68 Pythagorean wins 71 67 Placement 4th 4th The Expos spent much of the 1999 season in limbo, waiting on word of a possible sale that could keep the team in Quebec, or another one that could send it to the Washington, D.C., area. That indecision, combined with the fact that Montreal won only seven games in April, left fans with little else to do in the summer but sing the "Small Market Blues" for yet another year. Nobody expected Montreal to do much of anything in 1999; nor should they have. While there were some bright spots, it wasn't enough to overcome a bad team and convince fans to come to the worst ballpark in the majors. The Expos drew less than 800,000 fans for only the second time in club history -- and the first since 1976 -- leaving many to predict that a move to the U.S. was all but a done deal. However, like the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, New York City art dealer Jeffrey Loria came charging in to save the city's team in the nick of time. After spending considerable time and effort (not to mention money) to convince MLB that he was the right man for the job, the owners finally approved the sale in late November. The behind-the-scenes efforts of team chair Jacques Menard, a heavy hitter in Quebec business circles, paved the way for Loria to rescue the team. Key Position PlayersThe Expos did little to improve themselves before the start of spring training, choosing instead to stand pat and rely on superstar Vladimir Guerrero plus Rondell White and the emerging talent of players like Michael Barrett. There's no doubt that Guerrero already is one of the best players in the National League, but Barrett could be the key if the team is going to make any real improvement in the next few seasons. Barrett, expected to be the full-time third baseman in 2000 after spending last year as a part-time catcher and part-time third baseman, is only 23 and is showing signs of developing power. If he develops into an All-Star caliber player, it would go a long way toward turning Montreal into a contender. Chris Widger, c, age 28 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 426 100 22 2 14 39 55 1 30 2 85 5 1 .235 .285 .394 .680 48 Prorated Mon 388 91 20 1 12 35 50 0 27 1 77 4 0 .235 .284 .384 .668 42 Actual Mon 383 101 24 1 14 42 56 7 28 0 86 1 4 .264 .325 .441 .766 54 Widger set career highs in batting, on-base, and slugging in '99. Given that these numbers were still quite modest, and considering his age and the offensive boom times, that's neither surprising nor impressive. His batting performance dipped substantially after the All-Star break, so it's not likely he'll do better than this in 2000. With a very pronounced left/right spread (.350 vs LHP, .233 vs RHP), Widger is really best suited for platoon duty. With a poor 22 percent rate in throwing out larcenous opponents, being able to spot him against teams that don't run a lot would be a big plus. However, unless Montreal makes a decision to play Michael Barrett behind the plate (the latest word is that Barrett will stay at 3B), Widger is the best they've got. Chris underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee in October to remove torn cartilage. Robert Machado, c, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection ChA 70 15 4 0 1 8 7 0 3 0 12 0 0 .214 .247 .314 .561 5 Prorated Mon 22 4 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 .182 .182 .227 .409 1 Actual Mon 22 4 1 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 6 0 0 .182 .250 .227 .477 1 Machado started 1999 with the White Sox and was plucked off their AAA club in June when Darron Cox went on the DL. Machado became a freee agent in October; despite his weak stick, he could possibly end up as a reserve catcher somewhere in the majors in 2000. Darron Cox, c, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 69 15 3 0 1 8 7 1 3 0 10 0 0 .217 .260 .304 .565 5 Prorated Mon 24 5 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 .208 .240 .250 .490 2 Actual Mon 25 6 1 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 5 0 0 .240 .296 .400 .696 3 Darron missed most of the 1999 season due to a strained left knee (while running to first base on a fly ball!) after starting the season on the Opening Day roster as the backup catcher to Widger and Barrett. He is the oldest player in Montreal history to make his major league debut with the team (31 years, 136 days). Cox elected free agency after the season and has been invited to the Rockies' spring camp for 2000. Bob Henley, c, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 126 30 7 0 3 13 17 2 12 0 27 1 0 .238 .312 .365 .677 14 Henley missed the entire season with an elbow injury. He also underwent surgery in August for a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder. While his rehabilitation program is supposed to last only six months, his ability to recover quickly from such serious injuries is obviously in question. On the other hand, there's ample opportunity at his position in Montreal. Brad Fullmer, 1b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 599 168 50 2 19 75 94 5 40 5 70 6 6 .280 .329 .466 .794 87 Prorated Mon 345 96 28 1 10 43 54 2 23 2 40 3 3 .278 .325 .452 .777 48 Actual Mon 347 96 34 2 9 38 47 2 22 6 35 2 3 .277 .321 .464 .785 46 Fullmer is one of those first sackers who does enough stuff well to keep playing, but who doesn't have what it takes to be a plus at a power position. He really doesn't hit for a high enough average or have enough over-the-fence power to help the team much. To be sure, his line-drive power is nice (34 doubles in only 100 games last year, 80 two-baggers in 892 career major league at-bats), but it doesn't make up for his deficiencies. Brad slumped badly in the first half last year, hitting only .219 with a .274 OBA before the midsummer classic, though he recovered nicely in the second half. While he isn't completely impotent versus lefties, he hasn't yet shown he can hit them on an everyday basis, either. Ryan McGuire, 1b, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 67 14 3 0 1 8 5 0 8 0 13 0 0 .209 .293 .299 .592 6 Prorated Mon 152 31 6 0 2 18 11 0 18 0 29 0 0 .204 .288 .283 .571 13 Actual Mon 140 31 7 2 2 17 18 0 27 0 33 1 1 .221 .347 .343 .690 16 After fooling some people in 1997 into thinking he could hit a bit, McGuire has now demonstrated that he is almost helpless against big-league pitching. Ryan could be a marginally useful reserve first baseman-left fielder because of his glove; otherwise, he's a career AAA player. Fernando Seguignol, 1b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 68 16 4 0 4 10 12 1 5 0 21 0 0 .235 .293 .471 .764 10 Prorated Mon 107 25 6 0 6 15 19 1 7 0 33 0 0 .234 .284 .458 .742 14 Actual Mon 105 27 9 0 5 14 10 7 5 1 33 0 0 .257 .328 .486 .813 18 Because he has legitimate power and is a switch-hitter, Seguignol has been more highly thought of than his performance to date would otherwise indicate. After hitting 33 homers in 1998 (31 in the minors, two in the majors), he got a chance to play with the big club in June due to the poor performances of Fullmer and McGuire. Unfortunately, Fernando went on the DL after only 18 starts with a strained left quadriceps. Seguignol hit 28 homers last year, 23 in AAA Ottawa and five in Montreal (in only 105 at-bats). His age and his power make him a player to watch, though he needs to improve his plate discipline if he really wants to get enough good pitches to hit to become a bona fide big-league slugger. Jose Vidro, 2b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 67 17 4 0 1 8 8 1 5 0 9 1 0 .254 .311 .358 .669 8 Prorated Mon 474 120 28 0 7 56 56 7 35 0 63 7 0 .253 .310 .357 .666 56 Actual Mon 494 150 45 2 12 67 59 4 29 2 51 0 4 .304 .346 .476 .822 77 In 1999, Vidro had one of those breakthrough seasons that makes the Expos in general and manager Felipe Alou in particular look so smart. (Think Mike Lansing, Mark Grudzielanek, and many other quality big-leaguers who seemingly came out of nowhere to establish themselves in Montreal.) Starting the season as a utility player, Jose won the second base job in May and never looked back. At second, Vidro's defense was adequate, but there is reason to believe he'll get better with experience. Though he started his career as a second-sacker, Jose was reduced to utility duty in the minors and actually played more third base than second in 1997 and 1998. Although he didn't take as many pitches as he could have, his age and relative lack of experience to date argue that he can sustain this level of performance and possibly improve. Wilton Guerrero, 2b/lf/ph, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 650 190 20 18 4 83 50 1 23 1 89 20 7 .292 .316 .397 .713 81 Prorated Mon 319 93 9 8 1 40 24 0 11 0 43 9 3 .292 .314 .379 .694 38 Actual Mon 315 92 15 7 2 42 31 2 13 0 38 7 6 .292 .324 .403 .727 40 Guerrero started the year as the regular second baseman but lost his job early on due to an iron glove. Afterward, he served as a pinch hitter (hitting .340 off the bench) while learning to play the outfield. Wilton also decided to play winter ball to improve his skills in the pasture, as it doesn't look like he'll see a lot of time in the Montreal infield in 2000 unless there is a major injury to a key player. Unless Wilton learns to walk more or develops sudden, unexpected power, he'll be consigned to a bench role in the future. Mike Mordecai, ss, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 113 23 5 1 2 12 8 0 7 0 19 0 0 .204 .248 .319 .567 9 Prorated Mon 229 46 10 2 4 24 16 0 14 0 38 0 0 .201 .245 .314 .559 18 Actual Mon 226 53 10 2 5 29 25 1 20 0 31 2 5 .235 .297 .363 .660 24 Playing second, short, and third without much distinction either with the glove or the bat, Mordecai saw way too much time in the lineup because he was playing for such a bad team. He's unlikely to see that much time in 2000, though his utility job should be secure. Orlando Cabrera, ss, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 647 160 32 12 5 92 56 1 44 1 67 28 10 .247 .293 .357 .650 68 Prorated Mon 371 91 18 6 2 52 32 0 25 0 38 16 5 .245 .290 .342 .632 37 Actual Mon 382 97 23 5 8 48 39 3 18 4 38 2 2 .254 .293 .403 .696 42 Displaying good range and a flashy glove, Cabrera matured into the Expos' shortstop of the future in '99. Unfortunately, a severely sprained left ankle, suffered while trying to beat out an infield hit, sidelined Jose for the last two months of the season. At the time his season ended, Cabrera was coming out of a midsummer slump, so it's hard to tell how his bat will hold up over a full season. Regardless of whether he can improve at the plate as he enters his prime years, his glove should keep him in the lineup for years to come. Geoff Blum, ss, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Mon 133 32 7 2 8 21 18 0 17 3 25 1 0 .241 .327 .504 .830 22 A career minor leaguer who has developed decent power in the last two seasons, Blum got his chance in the Expos' infield when Cabrera went down in early August. He made the most of it, hitting a surprising eight homers in just 133 at-bats. Geoff's ability to switch-hit, his newfound power, and his previous willingness to take pitches should earn him a role in the big leagues in the future, but his shaky glove and poor range at short aren't going to earn him a starting assignment. Too much will probably be made over the fact that Blum hit only a buck-ninety against southpaws with Montreal. However, that was in very limited exposure (21 at-bats), and his on-base and slugging versus lefties were in-line with his numbers versus righties. Michael Barrett, 3b/c, age 22AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 72 19 5 0 2 10 10 0 3 1 7 1 1 .264 .293 .417 .710 8 Prorated Mon 450 118 31 0 12 62 62 0 18 6 43 6 6 .262 .291 .411 .702 48 Actual Mon 433 127 32 3 8 53 52 3 32 4 39 0 2 .293 .345 .436 .782 60 Versatility is certainly a plus in baseball, but it can be detrimental to the development of a young player with star potential. Barrett split 1999 between the hot corner and catcher (less three weeks on the DL in the middle of the year with a shoulder strain), and the Expos are still undecided about where they expect him to play in the future. Current betting is at third base, which makes more sense than catcher given the high expectations for his bat and given that Michael threw out only 16 of 58 baserunners attempting to steal. At third, he was below-average defensively. Like way too many Montreal players, Barrett doesn't take enough pitches to make himself into a real offensive force unless he hits well above .300 or unless he develops major power. At 23, if given a chance to settle into one position, he should improve substantially. Shane Andrews, 3b, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 533 124 31 1 28 58 79 1 57 5 151 1 2 .233 .304 .452 .757 74 Prorated Mon 291 67 16 0 15 31 43 0 31 2 82 0 1 .230 .302 .440 .741 39 Actual Mon 281 51 8 0 11 28 37 0 43 2 88 1 0 .181 .287 .327 .614 27 Prorated ChN 67 15 3 0 3 7 10 0 7 0 19 0 0 .224 .297 .403 .700 8 Actual ChN 67 17 4 0 5 13 14 1 7 1 21 0 1 .254 .329 .537 .866 12 Prorated Tot 358 83 20 0 18 39 53 0 38 3 101 0 1 .232 .303 .439 .741 48 Actual Tot 348 68 12 0 16 41 51 1 50 3 109 1 1 .195 .295 .368 .662 38 After five years of largely unfulfilled potential in Montreal, Andrews was released in September and caught on with the desperate Cubbies. A bulging disk in his lower back, which caused him to miss three weeks in May, certainly didn't help his hitting, but Andrews was on the way out anyway. Trace Coquillette, 3b/2b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 70 15 3 0 1 8 9 2 3 0 11 1 1 .214 .267 .300 .567 5 Prorated Mon 51 11 2 0 0 5 6 1 2 0 8 0 0 .216 .259 .255 .514 4 Actual Mon 49 13 3 0 0 2 4 1 4 0 7 1 0 .265 .333 .327 .660 5 A veteran minor leaguer who hit a surprising .326 with a .434 OBA and .566 SA at AAA Ottawa in '99, Coquillette got a brief chance in Montreal in September. Trace has spent most of his time at second base in his pro career, and his defensive problems at the hot corner in Montreal showed that. With the departure of Shane Andrews and the conversion of Wilton Guerrero to the outfield, Coquillette has a chance to make the big club as a reserve infielder in 2000. Rondell White, lf/cf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 550 156 30 4 25 78 81 9 37 3 93 19 9 .284 .337 .489 .826 87 Prorated Mon 539 152 29 3 24 76 79 8 36 2 91 18 8 .282 .334 .481 .815 83 Actual Mon 539 168 26 6 22 83 64 11 32 2 85 10 6 .312 .359 .505 .863 93 It certainly must be frustrating to be stuck playing on a team that is continually hemorrhaging talent, but the plain fact of White's career is that he has never become the star player that most in Montreal thought he would. Partly, that has been due to his many injuries. In 1999, White started the year with a sore left knee and then spent two tours of duty in midseason on the DL with a strained right hamstring, missing 32 days combined. Even when healthy, though, Rondell has never become a dominant force in the lineup. An .863 OPS in '99 is good, but it's nothing special for a guy who played the outfield with adequate range last year due to knee problems. That being said, White is at the age when he could post his career year, which would be a huge factor in a potential return to competitiveness for the downtrodden Expos. Terry Jones, cf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Mon 63 17 1 1 0 4 3 0 3 0 14 1 2 .270 .303 .317 .620 6 Jones played himself out of the reserve outfield picture in Montreal with a very weak performance in 1998, but he got a short promotion in July when both Rondell White and Manny Martinez were disabled. He has speed and good range, and that's it. Orlando Merced, lf, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 345 93 20 1 9 40 49 2 37 3 55 4 4 .270 .341 .412 .753 48 Prorated Mon 197 53 11 0 5 22 27 1 21 1 31 2 2 .269 .341 .401 .742 27 Actual Mon 194 52 12 1 8 25 26 0 26 0 27 2 1 .268 .353 .464 .817 32 Merced restored some luster to his lackluster career since leaving Pittsburgh after the 1996 season (four big-league teams in 1997-98). He upped his slugging by 51 points over '98 and played a decent left field, making him a worthwhile reserve. Orlando missed almost all of July with a strained left calf muscle. He went free agent after the end of the season. James Mouton, lf, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 80 19 4 1 1 11 10 0 8 0 13 5 2 .238 .303 .350 .653 8 Prorated Mon 131 31 6 1 1 18 16 0 13 0 21 8 3 .237 .303 .321 .624 13 Actual Mon 122 32 5 1 2 18 13 2 18 1 31 6 2 .262 .364 .369 .732 18 Mouton has never hit well enough to play much, and he is a minus outfielder to boot, which his why he ended up as a pinch hitter with Montreal. Hitting .324 off the bench, despite the expectably large fluctuations from year to year due to the limited sample, will still get someone's attention in baseball, however. After declaring free agency in October, Mouton signed a minor league contract with Milwaukee. Peter Bergeron, lf, age 21AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Mon 45 11 2 0 0 12 1 0 9 0 5 0 0 .244 .370 .289 .659 6 Projected by many to be the Expos' leadoff hitter of the future, Bergeron got a September look-see from Montreal after hitting .327 with a .407 on-base average in AA Harrisburg and hitting .314 with a .386 OBA in AAA Ottawa. Displaying the excellent batting eye that he is known for, Peter also showed plus range in left field in his brief time in the majors. He underwent minor arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder in October. Bergeron is perfectly positioned to make the leap to the big leagues in 2000. At his young age, Peter has a golden opportunity awaiting him in center field in Monteal. He's exactly the kind of player that the Expos really need at the top of the batting order: patient enough to get on-base often, with the requisite speed (64 stolen bases in 1998-99 in the minors) to score runs on hits up the gap (12 runs in 16 games in Montreal). Manny Martinez, cf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 284 66 14 1 5 35 27 1 15 1 60 5 6 .232 .272 .342 .614 25 Prorated Mon 334 77 16 1 5 41 31 1 17 1 70 5 7 .231 .269 .329 .598 28 Actual Mon 331 81 12 7 2 48 26 0 17 0 51 19 6 .245 .279 .341 .621 32 A valuable fifth outfielder due to his speed and to his range in center, Martinez' many other shortcomings come to the fore when he has to play regularly. Manny missed two weeks in July with a sprained thumb, then rode the pine most of August and September when Rondell White recovered from his injuries and returned to the outfield on an everyday basis. Vladimir Guerrero, rf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 611 198 39 8 32 105 102 9 41 11 83 10 9 .324 .373 .571 .944 123 Prorated Mon 619 200 39 8 32 106 103 9 41 11 84 10 9 .323 .371 .567 .939 123 Actual Mon 610 193 37 5 42 102 131 7 55 14 62 14 7 .316 .378 .600 .978 132 There's little that can be said about Guerrero's impressive performance and huge potential that hasn't been said already. Essentially, the sky is the limit for him, and he is clearly carrying Montreal's future hopes for a contending team on his talented shoulders. A couple of points: Vladimir actually had a better second half in 1999, upping his batting average from .293 to .341 and his slugging from .546 to .659. While he hit only four doubles in 129 at-bats against southpaws, he blasted 12 homers off lefties. He finally reached the break-even point while running, stealing 14 bases in 21 attempts. Defensively, Guerrero has been criticized for too many errors (19 in 1999), but he more than compensates for that flaw with plus range and a strong arm (15 assists last year). Key PitchersMontreal finished with a 4.69 team ERA last year, not much above the NL average of 4.56. That, in itself, is no mean accomplishment, considering the large number of young and immature pitchers the team force-fed into the majors as it kept costs to a bare minimum while awaiting word on its fate. However, a slump by team ace Dustin Hermanson and a lost year by key prospect Carl Pavano, plus a rash of hopefully minor elbow and shoulder injuries, cast a pall over the callow staff's progress. Dustin Hermanson, starter, age 26 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 3.44 32 32 11 9 0 186 163 20 65 158 .237 .680 Prorated Mon 3.44 39 39 13 11 0 224 197 24 79 191 .237 .680 Actual Mon 4.20 34 34 9 14 0 216 225 20 69 145 .271 .749 Hermanson backslid somewhat from his breakthrough '98 performance, but his overall marks in '99 were nothing to be ashamed of in the Year of the Hitter. His won-lost record was far worse than it should have been due to a very weak amount of support (3.82 runs per nine innings). Dustin was hit hard in May, June, and July, but he finished the season with 13 starts and a sub-2.50 ERA in August and September. The midseason slump could have been due to a bout of tendinitis that was reportedly bothering him. As part of their efforts to show their fans that the team is serious about its future, the Expos agreed to a three-year contract with Hermanson in January. The club also holds an option for a fourth year. Mike Thurman, starter, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.83 27 27 7 9 0 136 141 19 57 83 .270 .790 Prorated Mon 4.83 29 29 7 10 0 144 149 20 60 88 .270 .790 Actual Mon 4.05 29 27 7 11 0 147 140 17 52 85 .251 .725 Thurman pitched well in '99 in his first full season in the majors till he was knocked out for the rest of the year in mid-September by a severly bruised tibia and by elbow tendinitis. Like Hermanson, he was not well backed by his teammates, receiving only 3.78 runs per nine innings of support. Mike was hit relatively hard by left-handed batters (.766 OPS), a problem that he'll have to overcome if he is to become a solid rotation starter. Though he's not likely to become a star, his experience and his young age should result in improved performance in the near future so long as his elbow heals properly. Javier Vazquez, starter, age 22Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 5.67 32 32 8 13 0 171 194 32 69 146 .287 .851 Prorated Mon 5.67 28 28 7 11 0 149 168 28 60 127 .287 .851 Actual Mon 5.00 26 26 9 8 0 155 154 20 52 113 .255 .744 One of the very young players that cost-conscious Montreal has been forced to promote prematurely in the late 1990s, Vazquez improved quite a lot from his shell-shocked '98 campaign (5-15, 6.06 ERA). More evidence that he was learning from experience was the fact that he lowered his ERA by more than 2.50 runs in the second half. While he doesn't have great stuff, one has to be impressed with the future of a 22-year-old pitcher who can hold his own in the offensive storm of last season. Carl Pavano, starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.19 32 32 11 11 0 198 194 23 58 139 .258 .737 Prorated Mon 4.19 18 18 6 6 0 109 107 13 32 76 .258 .737 Actual Mon 5.63 19 18 6 8 0 104 117 8 35 70 .285 .747 The key player that Montreal received in the Pedro Martinez trade, Pavano endured another disappointing year in '99. After being placed on the disabled list on July 15, he made only one relief appearance in the second half due to elbow tendinitis. A postseason MRI showed nothing worse than tendinitis, however, and he is undergoing a strength and conditioning program in the off-season. Still, one has to worry about his ability to hold up to a regular workload as a rotation starter given that he also missed a good portion of the 1998 season with shoulder tendinitis. Dan Smith, starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Mon 6.02 20 17 4 9 0 90 104 12 39 72 .293 .827 Another of the Expos' numerous reclamation projects, Smith came to Montreal from Texas via a waiver claim after the 1998 season. His minor league record with Texas was undistinguished, and his future is now clouded by arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder in late September to repair a small tear in his rotator cuff. (Note that he is not the left-handed Dan Smith that was the Rangers' first-round pick in the June 1990 draft.) Jeremy Powell, starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 6.05 4 4 1 1 0 19 22 3 8 10 .289 .842 Prorated Mon 6.05 20 20 5 5 0 96 110 15 40 50 .289 .842 Actual Mon 4.73 17 17 4 8 0 97 113 14 44 44 .302 .847 After posting a 3-5 record with a 2.97 ERA in 16 starts in AAA Ottawa at the start of the season, Powell was promoted on July 2. Jeremy was clearly not yet ready for prime time (right-handed hitters clobbered him to the tune of a .343 BA and .548 SA) and probably needs to spend another half season or more at AAA before he faces big-league hitting again. Without the kind of budget exigencies that have plagued the Expos in recent years, he might just not be recalled till he's ready. Miguel Batista, swing man, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 5.19 32 32 8 10 0 172 193 20 80 123 .287 .808 Prorated Mon 5.19 25 25 6 8 0 135 152 16 63 97 .287 .808 Actual Mon 4.88 39 17 8 7 1 135 146 10 58 95 .280 .767 For the third consecutive year, Batista spend considerable time in both the rotation and the bullpen in 1999. He was more effective in the former role, as his ERA ballooned to 5.75 in relief. The big problem was that lefty hitters feasted on the right-hander (.339 BA, .417 OBA), a problem he's had in the past but was worse last season. Miguel missed almost a month after suffering a strained left oblique muscle in mid-July. Ted Lilly, swing man, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 6.35 3 3 1 1 0 17 22 3 7 16 .319 .913 Prorated Mon 6.35 4 4 1 1 0 24 31 4 10 23 .319 .913 Actual Mon 7.61 9 3 0 1 0 24 30 7 9 28 .309 1.000 The promising southpaw with the plus curveball split time between AAA Ottawa and Montreal last year, getting hammered in his short exposure to big-league hitters. Postseason arthroscopic surgery to repair a small tear in his labrum could result in his being handled gingerly in the spring. In the long run, Ted's got a lot of promise; in the short run, he will probably need more time in AAA. Mel Rojas, middle reliever, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 3.95 53 0 4 4 0 73 71 10 32 68 .256 .761 Prorated LA 3.95 4 0 0 0 0 5 5 1 2 5 .256 .761 Actual LA 12.60 5 0 0 0 0 5 5 3 3 3 .250 1.048 Prorated Det 3.95 7 0 0 0 0 9 9 1 4 8 .256 .761 Actual Det 22.74 5 0 0 0 0 6 12 3 4 6 .387 1.326 Prorated Mon 3.95 3 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 2 4 .256 .761 Actual Mon 16.88 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 2 1 .417 1.113 Prorated Tot 3.95 13 0 1 1 0 18 18 2 8 17 .256 .761 Actual Tot 18.00 13 0 0 0 0 14 22 6 9 10 .349 1.202 Rojas, a premier closer for the Expos in 1995-96, hit rock bottom last year. Only three years removed from a 36-save season, Rojas was awful for all three teams who took a chance on him. Mel started the season in Los Angeles, was traded to Detroit after appearing in only five games with the Dodgers. He wasn't any better there or in Montreal, his third stop, and he was released by the Expos on July 2. Rojas has a name, so it's likely he'll get at least one more shot, but it appears that, barring a miracle, his career is all but over. Bobby Ayala, middle reliever, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.77 40 0 3 3 0 55 62 7 19 49 .287 .794 Prorated Mon 4.77 50 0 4 4 0 68 78 9 24 61 .287 .794 Actual Mon 3.68 53 0 1 6 0 66 60 6 34 64 .235 .727 Prorated ChN 4.77 11 0 1 1 0 15 17 2 5 13 .287 .794 Actual ChN 2.81 13 0 0 1 0 16 11 4 5 15 .193 .685 Prorated Tot 4.77 61 0 5 5 0 83 94 11 29 75 .287 .794 Actual Tot 3.51 66 0 1 7 0 82 71 10 39 79 .228 .720 Ayala persevered last season and succeeded almost in spite of himself after being released by Montreal in August. Once a promising reliever with the Reds and Mariners, he resurrected his career in 1999 with the Expos and Cubs. Always having decent stuff, Ayala has been good when he's kept his emotions (and a reported alcohol problem) under control. When he hasn't, he's been a washout. The Twins signed him after his strong performance in Chicago in September and, while probably he won't be a closer in the future, he could contribute as an effective setup man. JD Smart, middle reliever, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 5.57 27 4 2 4 0 53 66 6 21 27 .307 .841 Prorated Mon 5.57 25 4 2 4 0 49 61 6 19 25 .307 .841 Actual Mon 5.02 29 0 0 1 0 52 56 4 17 21 .276 .744 Starting the season in long relief in Montreal, Smart was optioned to AAA Ottawa in late June, then recalled in late July when Miguel Batista was disabled. His season was ended by elbow tendinitis. An extreme finesse pitcher since he reached the high minors, J.D. might never see the big leagues again. Guillermo Mota, middle reliever, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 2.33 13 0 1 1 0 19 16 1 5 22 .225 .583 Prorated Mon 2.33 41 0 3 3 0 60 50 3 16 69 .225 .583 Actual Mon 2.93 51 0 2 4 0 55 54 5 25 27 .257 .733 A former shortstop, Mota fashioned a decent season in junk-time relief, but any pitcher who walks almost as many as he strikes out -- and who only strikes out 4.39 batters per nine innings -- doesn't have much to look forward to. There are two reasons for optimism, however. First, Guillermo had only 57 games experience as a pitcher prior to 1999, with only 12 games in the high minors. Second, he had arthroscopic surgery after the season to remove a bone chip in his elbow. A full season in AAA would help a lot. Scott Strickland, middle reliever, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Mon 4.50 17 0 0 1 0 18 15 3 11 23 .231 .711 An unheralded 10th-round pick in the 1997 draft, Strickland barely got off the bus long enough last year to take more than one shower in any city. He started the season in Class A, was promoted to AA Harrisburg after only 12 games, was promoted to AAA Ottawa after 14 more games, then split the rest of the year between AAA and the majors. The hard-throwing young righty fanned 126 hitters in 100.1 innings on the year, and he clearly impressed quite a few in his short time in the big leagues. More experience in the high minors would almost certainly help him hone his skills, although he could break camp with the Expos if he continues to wow people in spring training. Steve Kline, setup reliever, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.54 70 0 4 4 1 71 78 7 31 61 .282 .787 Prorated Mon 4.54 66 0 4 4 1 67 74 7 29 58 .282 .787 Actual Mon 3.75 82 0 7 4 0 70 56 8 33 69 .218 .671 Kline led the NL in appearances in 1999 and has now appeared in a total of 160 games (but only 141.1 innings) in the last two seasons - and that's despite missing more than two weeks in April with an inflamed left elbow. Extremely effective against portsiders, (.194 BA, .258 SA), he was none too shabby against righties, either (.232 BA, .415 SA). As a situational lefty and sometime setup reliever, he's a keeper. Anthony Telford, setup reliever, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 3.99 70 0 5 5 2 97 97 12 40 63 .263 .758 Prorated Mon 3.99 72 0 5 5 2 99 99 12 41 64 .263 .758 Actual Mon 3.94 79 0 5 4 2 96 112 3 38 69 .295 .725 A graybeard on a staff full of kids, Telford turned in his third straight season of effective setup work for Les Expos. He finished second in the NL in appearances and third in relief innings pitched. Three warning signs that he probably has reached his limit were his 112 hits in only 96 innings, his almost two-run jump in ERA after the All-Star break, and his ineffectiveness against left-handed hitters (.327 BA, .808 OPS). Still, Telford should be usable even if he can't continue to pitch at this level. Ugueth Urbina, closer, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 2.32 70 0 5 5 42 78 54 7 34 95 .196 .608 Prorated Mon 2.32 72 0 5 5 43 80 55 7 35 97 .196 .608 Actual Mon 3.69 71 0 6 6 41 76 59 6 36 100 .208 .598 Urbina had another dominant year in relief, though not as good as his awesome 1998. Previously, left-handed hitters had had modest success against him, but Ugueth was equally effective against lefties and righties in '99. Urbina's nine blown saves have raised way too many eyebrows considering the terrible team he pitched for, but his good right arm should silence his doubters again in 2000. The only real question is whether Montreal, which will have to wait till 2002 for its new ballpark, should trade Ugueth now while his value is extremely high and thereby avoid the risk of a serious injury to their star closer. OutlookNew owner Loria immediately pumped some, but not a lot, of money back into the team after taking over, signing a couple of minor free agents, including left-handed reliever Graeme Lloyd, and trading for the talented but enigmatic Hideki Irabu. While these moves won't put Les Expos in the postseason, they were a signal that things are finally looking up north of the border. The one "name" position player the Expos did sign in the off-season was second baseman Mickey Morandini. While Morandini could wind up having a decent year -- he's not nearly as bad as he was in '99, nor will he ever be as good as he was in '98 -- he's obviously not a long-term solution. The team is committed to Barrett, Cabrera, Vidro, and either Fullmer or Seguignol in the infield, and Guerrero, White, and Bergeron in the outfield. There's a lot of potential in that lineup, but such potential is still worlds away from actual performance. While manager Felipe Alou can be counted upon to get the maximum from his charges, he can't play the games for them. If Montreal can continue its sterling record of the 1990s of drafting, signing, and developing young talent, the Expos of 2000 could develop into a solid team in a couple of years. However, it would not be at all surprising if several of the team's young players don't develop, nor if the minor-league system can't produce in the near future like it has in the past. In short, there is finally reason to hope again in Quebec -- but there's no margin for error, either. The Expos need to avoid the Milwaukee syndrome of spending too much of their precious money on mediocre veterans - players whose names the fans will recognize but whose talents won't take them to October. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond
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