Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- New York Yankees Written By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the New York Yankees did in the 1999 season relative to pre-season expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 931 900 Runs allowed 676 731 Run Margin 255 169 Wins 105 98 Pythagorean wins 106 98 Placement 1st 1st The Yankees didn't make a lot of changes during the last off-season. It makes sense that they'd try to keep a team that won 114 games and the World Series intact. (Their 1998 record is often reported with the post-season games included because 125 and 50 are such nice round numbers.) The one change they made seemed like an obvious improvement: they shipped David Wells and Homer Bush to Toronto for Cy Young award winner Roger Clemens. Despite that, few knowledgeable fans and commentators really expected the Yankees to improve on their previous record. You don't collect more than 110 victories unless almost all of your key people are at the very top of their game, and that's not likely to happen two years in a row. For example, after the Cleveland Indians won 111 games in 1954, they replaced Dave Philley with Ralph Kiner, added rookie phenom Herb Score to the best starting rotation in baseball, kept the rest of their squad (more or less) intact, and proceeded to win 18 fewer games and finish second. The Yankees won 16 fewer games that they had in 1998 -- the largest drop in the AL -- and still had the best record in the league. Key Position PlayersThe Yankees' offense was slightly worse than projected in 1999. On the surface it's not obvious why. The players who hit better than expected (Knoblauch, Jeter, Williams, Ledee and Curtis) should have more than made up for those hitting worse (Posada, Girardi, Martinez, O'Neill and Spencer). They did steal less frequently and successfully than they had in 1998, but more likely the 31 fewer runs they scored was simply caused by the luck of the draw. Jorge Posada, c, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 341 87 20 0 14 56 55 2 51 5 80 0 1 .255 .352 .437 .789 53 Prorated NYA 373 95 21 0 15 61 60 2 55 5 87 0 1 .255 .350 .432 .782 56 Actual NYA 379 93 19 2 12 50 57 3 53 2 91 1 0 .245 .341 .401 .742 54 The Yankees had hopes that Posada would continue to improve in 1999, but his offense took a small step backward instead. He got off to a slow start and his batting average was under .200 as late as July 9th. The team had his eyes examined at one point to see if there was a medical reason for his slump. They were fine. His hitting improved over the second half and by the season's end, he was not that far below our projections for him. Joe Girardi, c, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 182 49 9 2 1 20 21 2 12 1 26 2 2 .269 .320 .357 .677 19 Prorated NYA 207 55 10 2 1 22 23 2 13 1 29 2 2 .266 .314 .348 .662 21 Actual NYA 209 50 16 1 2 23 27 0 10 0 26 3 1 .239 .271 .354 .626 16 Girardi had perhaps the poorest hitting year of his career in 1999. He doesn't walk much and has little power, so when he hits .239 it overstates his value at the plate. His playing time has decreased each of the last three years, as Posada took over the starting role, and Girardi decided after the season to return to the Chicago Cubs in 2000 rather than see his role diminished even further. Tino Martinez, 1b, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 538 149 29 1 31 85 118 4 62 6 78 2 1 .277 .350 .507 .858 95 Prorated NYA 582 161 31 1 33 92 127 4 67 6 84 2 1 .277 .350 .503 .853 102 Actual NYA 589 155 27 2 28 95 105 3 69 7 86 3 4 .263 .341 .458 .800 91 After arriving in New York with a bang in 1997 (44 HRs and 141 RBIs), Martinez has now turned in two mediocre seasons in a row. He had a lot of trouble hitting in Yankee stadium last year (.227 AVG with only 7 HRs), but this was probably not significant as he had hit well at home the year before. Despite topping 100 RBIs for the fifth straight season, Martinez was one of the worst-hitting regular first basemen in the majors in 1999, ahead of only Rico Brogna and Darrin Erstad in on-base plus slugging percentage. With Nick Johnson tearing up the minor leagues, Martinez may not be the Yankees first baseman much past the year 2000. Chuck Knoblauch, 2b, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 587 165 25 8 13 117 60 17 81 3 72 41 13 .281 .381 .417 .798 102 Prorated NYA 606 170 25 8 13 120 61 17 83 3 74 42 13 .281 .379 .413 .792 103 Actual NYA 603 176 36 4 18 120 68 21 83 0 57 28 9 .292 .393 .454 .848 118 An awful stretch from May 2nd to the end of the month, when he hit .141 with only one home run, got him dropped down to the 7th slot for a game in early June. He also dyed his hair blond in July in an effort to change his luck. It seemed to work, at least at the plate, as Knoblauch hit extremely well over the second half of the season. His defense was another story, however, as his frequent inability to make routine throws led to most of his major league leading 26 errors. It was painful to watch at times and something he will have to overcome if he's going to remain a regular second baseman in the major leagues. Derek Jeter, ss, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 602 191 27 7 15 117 77 8 61 1 112 25 8 .317 .386 .460 .846 110 Prorated NYA 656 208 29 7 16 127 83 8 66 1 122 27 8 .317 .385 .456 .841 119 Actual NYA 627 219 37 9 24 134 102 12 91 5 116 19 8 .349 .438 .552 .989 158 What can you say about Jeter? He set highs in just about every offensive category except stolen bases in 1999. His power and plate discipline were a pleasant surprise, making him arguably the most valuable player in the league last year. I'm not sure who has been the greatest shortstop in AL history -- if forced to make a choice I'd probably go with either Joe Cronin or Cal Ripken. Fifteen years from now, however, those two could very well drop to fourth and fifth on the list, assuming of course, that Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra don't have career-threatening injuries or get moved to another position. The latter could be a distinct possibility down the road for Jeter; the Yankees have two top shortstops in their minor league system, Alfonso Soriano and D'Angelo Jiminez, and it wouldn't surprise me if all three are in the Yankee lineup in the next couple of years. Scott Brosius, 3b, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 504 132 28 0 17 74 73 7 48 2 99 9 6 .262 .332 .419 .751 72 Prorated NYA 468 122 26 0 15 68 67 6 44 1 92 8 5 .261 .330 .412 .743 65 Actual NYA 473 117 26 1 17 64 71 6 39 2 74 9 3 .247 .307 .414 .722 60 After hitting .304, .203 and .300 the three previous years, Brosius headed for the middle ground in 1999. He hit only .194 against lefties last year, but that included 10 home runs in only 108 at-bats. He spent time on the DL in April with a sprained ankle, one of the few Yankee regulars to spend any time on the disabled list last year. Luis Sojo, 3b/2b/ss, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 127 32 4 1 0 12 12 0 6 0 10 1 0 .252 .284 .299 .583 10 Prorated NYA 124 31 3 0 0 11 11 0 5 0 9 0 0 .250 .279 .274 .553 9 Actual NYA 127 32 6 0 2 20 16 0 4 0 17 1 0 .252 .275 .346 .621 11 Sojo was let go after the end of the season when the Yankees decided to use D'Angelo Jiminez as their back-up infielder in 2000. Paul O'Neill, rf, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 616 187 41 1 23 95 115 2 73 6 102 9 5 .304 .374 .485 .859 110 Prorated NYA 593 180 39 0 22 91 110 1 70 5 98 8 4 .304 .373 .481 .854 105 Actual NYA 597 170 39 4 19 70 110 2 66 1 89 11 9 .285 .353 .459 .812 92 O'Neill had his worst season since coming to the Yankees in 1993, posting New York lows in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He was almost hopeless against lefties last year, hitting only .190 with 3 home runs in 158 at-bats, and might be platooned in 2000 if the trend continues. Bernie Williams, cf, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 560 179 33 5 26 113 106 1 81 8 87 16 8 .320 .403 .536 .938 120 Prorated NYA 602 192 35 5 27 121 114 1 87 8 93 17 8 .319 .402 .528 .931 128 Actual NYA 591 202 28 6 25 116 115 1 100 17 95 9 10 .342 .435 .536 .971 140 Conventional wisdom wasn't on Williams' side last year. After all, the Yankees signed him to a contract worth $87.5 million over the next seven years prior to the season. There are two ways to look at what was supposed to happen to Williams in 1999: either he puts too much pressure on himself trying to justify the huge sums of money he's being paid and slumps badly under the strain, or he kicks back and enjoys his long-term security while players with much more at stake enjoy better years. Instead, Williams set career highs in games played, hits, runs, RBIs, walks, batting average and on-base percentage last year. He suffered from tendinitis in his right shoulder the last month of the season, but it didn't cause him to miss any time. Ricky Ledee, lf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 417 104 21 2 20 74 58 2 44 3 117 8 2 .249 .321 .453 .774 62 Prorated NYA 248 62 12 1 11 44 34 1 26 1 69 4 1 .250 .321 .440 .761 36 Actual NYA 250 69 13 5 9 45 40 0 28 5 73 4 3 .276 .346 .476 .822 42 Tim Raines was cut loose by the Yankees following the 1998 season, a move that seemed designed to give Ricky Ledee an opportunity to take over most of the left-field duties last year. Instead, a slow start (9 for 45, no home runs) got him sent back to the minors on May 9th. He returned in late June and got an an opportunity to play a short time later when Spencer went on the DL. Ledee went on a tear in July and August, hitting .355 with 7 homers in 124 at-bats, before slumping down the stretch. Despite the slow start and finish, he still hit better than anticipated and should be the regular left-fielder (at least against right-handers) in 2000. Chad Curtis, lf/dh/cf, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 220 54 11 0 6 37 27 3 33 1 37 8 3 .245 .347 .377 .725 31 Prorated NYA 207 50 10 0 5 34 25 2 31 0 34 7 2 .242 .343 .362 .705 28 Actual NYA 195 51 6 0 5 37 24 3 43 0 35 8 4 .262 .398 .369 .767 32 As expected, Curtis saw his playing time diminish in 1999. His hitting was slightly better than projected last year, but he still didn't fit into New York's long-term plans and was dealt to the Rangers after the season for a minor-league pitcher. Shane Spencer, lf/rf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 67 17 5 0 3 11 13 0 7 0 13 0 0 .254 .320 .463 .783 10 Prorated NYA 201 51 15 0 9 33 39 0 21 0 39 0 0 .254 .320 .463 .783 31 Actual NYA 205 48 8 0 8 25 20 2 18 0 51 0 4 .234 .301 .390 .691 24 Spencer came back down to earth last year, looking a lot more like the hitter who'd hit .241 at the AAA in 1997 than the phenom who batted .373 with 10 homers in 67 at-bats at the end of 1998. He was sent down to the minors briefly in late April, but seemed to have taken over as the semi-regular left-fielder in early July when he was disabled for most of the month with an irregular heartbeat. He couldn't get untracked after returning, hitting only .224 with little power the rest of the way. He doesn't hit righties very well at all, and unless that changes will probably be little more than a platoon player or pinch-hitter in 2000. Chili Davis, dh, age 39AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 486 131 23 0 21 62 75 2 80 13 95 4 3 .270 .372 .447 .818 80 Prorated NYA 469 126 22 0 20 59 72 1 77 12 91 3 2 .269 .370 .443 .814 76 Actual NYA 476 128 25 1 19 59 78 2 73 7 100 4 1 .269 .366 .445 .812 80 In what would turn out to be his final season, Chili Davis used a hot start (.325 average with 9 homers before the beginning of June) and a cold finish (.209 with 5 home runs after the end of July) to reach almost exactly his projected results. Darryl Strawberry, dh, age 37AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYA 85 18 3 0 6 12 16 1 12 1 26 2 2 .212 .316 .459 .775 12 Prorated NYA 57 12 2 0 4 8 10 0 8 0 17 1 1 .211 .308 .456 .764 8 Actual NYA 49 16 5 0 3 10 6 0 17 0 16 2 0 .327 .500 .612 1.112 18 We expected Strawberry's recovery from colon cancer to take much of 1999 to complete. Early in the season, however, his comeback looked like it would take even longer when he was charged with cocaine possession and solicitation. The drug charges got him suspended from major league baseball until August 4th and he didn't join the Yankees until the beginning of September. A hot last month (at one point he got on base in 19 of 27 plate appearances) makes him the front-runner for the DH job in 2000. Still, it seems awfully risky to count too heavily on Strawberry, who has knee and foot problems and hasn't gotten 300 at-bats in a season since 1991. Key PitchersRoger Clemens was supposed to anchor the best pitching staff in the AL in 1999; instead, he was the major reason for New York allowing 55 more runs than projected last year. Pettitte and Hernandez (at least until the post-season) were also mild disappointments, while only Jason Grimsley qualified as a pleasant surprise. David Cone, starter, age 36 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 3.58 32 32 15 9 0 211 189 21 80 225 .240 .687 Prorated NYA 3.58 30 30 14 8 0 195 174 19 74 208 .240 .687 Actual NYA 3.44 31 31 12 9 0 193 164 21 90 177 .229 .697 David Cone was perfect in 1999 when pitching with 10 days rest. Actually, he did pitch two innings in an exhibition game during his layoff, but when he took the mound against the Expos on July 18th, it was his first start since July 7th. In his 13 starts after pitching a perfect game against Montreal, however, Cone would go 2-5 with a 4.82 ERA and not pitch into the eighth inning once. After having the best control of his career in 1998, Cone had his worst last year, walking 4.19 men per 9 innings. He pitched two fine games in the post-season and was re-signed in December to a one-year deal. Roger Clemens, starter, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 2.73 32 32 16 7 0 221 176 12 77 247 .220 .611 Prorated NYA 2.73 29 29 15 6 0 202 161 11 71 227 .220 .611 Actual NYA 4.60 30 30 14 10 0 188 185 20 90 163 .261 .744 Coming off of two consecutive Cy Young award performances in Toronto, Clemens was expected to do more of the same for New York in 1999. Instead, he turned in one of the worst performances of his Hall of Fame career. He missed three weeks in May with hamstring problems, but didn't pitch particularly well either before or after his injury. He somehow managed to win his first five decisions of the year, bringing his streak of consecutive winning decisions to 20, before losing to the Mets on June 6th. Orlando Hernandez, starter, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 3.72 32 32 15 9 0 208 191 19 87 214 .244 .698 Prorated NYA 3.72 33 33 15 9 0 211 194 19 88 217 .244 .698 Actual NYA 4.12 33 33 17 9 0 214 187 24 87 157 .233 .703 Despite a somewhat higher ERA than projected, Hernandez took over as the Yankees ace in 1999. He was actually harder to hit than anticipated, but slightly more generous with the home run ball. He had another stellar post-season last fall, raising his two-year playoff mark to 5-0 with a 1.02 ERA, and was the starting pitcher in the opening game of all three rounds. Andy Pettitte, starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 3.84 27 27 11 9 0 178 181 12 64 125 .267 .703 Prorated NYA 3.84 30 30 12 10 0 200 204 14 72 141 .267 .703 Actual NYA 4.70 31 31 14 11 0 192 216 20 89 121 .289 .810 Pettitte started the year on the DL with a strained elbow and struggled mightily through the first four months of the season. At the trading deadline, he had a 7-8 record with a 5.65 ERA, and there were rumors that the Yankees trying to unload him. He seemed to turn his season around in August, winning five of six starts and posting a 1.76 ERA. Unfortunately, he reverted to his early-season form in September, finishing up with the highest ERA of his career (for the second straight year). Hideki Irabu, starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 4.90 27 27 8 10 0 160 158 30 72 129 .259 .795 Prorated NYA 4.90 28 28 8 10 0 167 165 31 75 135 .259 .795 Actual NYA 4.84 32 27 11 7 0 169 180 26 46 133 .267 .750 Irabu posted a 8.38 ERA in spring training, but it was his failure to cover first on a ground-ball to the right side that got him called a "fat toad" by George Steinbrenner. I guess you could say that the start of Irabu's second full season in New York did not exactly get off to a smooth start. He was replaced in the rotation at the beginning of the season by Ramiro Mendoza and got bombed (5 runs in 1/3 inning) and booed when he made his first appearance of the year at Yankee Stadium. Injuries, as well as a couple of good relief outings, got him back into the rotation at the beginning of May. As he did in the previous year, Irabu had stretches when he was extremely effective in 1999. He won eight games in a row at one point and compiled a 2.88 ERA in June and July. Unfortunately, he also pitched poorly for long periods, and over the last two months of the season went 3-4 with a 6.63 ERA, losing any chance of starting a post-season game. He was awful in his one playoff appearance, a mop-up role during the Yankees only post-season loss, and was dealt to the Montreal Expos after the season for a minor league pitcher. Mariano Rivera, closer, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 2.29 70 0 5 5 43 79 65 4 22 69 .226 .601 Prorated NYA 2.29 60 0 4 4 37 67 55 3 19 59 .226 .601 Actual NYA 1.83 66 0 4 3 45 69 43 2 18 52 .176 .476 Since moving into the closer's role after John Wetteland left in 1996, Rivera has now posted three straight sub-2.00 ERAs. He's only the second reliever in history to accomplish this feat. The other? Hoyt Wilhelm, the knuckleball Hall of Famer, who from 1964 to 1968 had sub-2.00 ERAs in five straight years. For a while, it didn't look like Rivera was going to be able to do it. After a slump in July, during which he allowed 9 runs in 7 1/3 innings, Rivera's ERA stood at 3.29. He didn't allow another run the rest of the season, a span of 30 2/3 innings. He was just as impressive in the post-season, pitching 12 1/3 scoreless innings, while saving six games and winning two more. Ramiro Mendoza, swing man, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 4.30 58 5 5 5 0 105 113 8 22 53 .280 .735 Prorated NYA 4.30 71 6 6 6 0 128 138 10 27 65 .280 .735 Actual NYA 4.29 53 6 9 9 3 124 141 13 27 80 .284 .750 Mendoza began the season in the starting rotation before moving back to the bullpen by the middle of May. It was the third straight season he had moved between the rotation and the bullpen, but by the end of the year he seemed to have finally settled into the role of a middle reliever. Jeff Nelson, middle relief, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 3.64 70 0 6 3 3 96 89 7 43 100 .247 .723 Prorated NYA 3.64 23 0 2 1 1 32 29 2 14 33 .247 .723 Actual NYA 4.15 39 0 2 1 1 30 27 2 22 35 .245 .743 Nelson missed three weeks in May with elbow inflammation before having surgery to remove bone spurs in early June. He wouldn't return until the second week of August, but he pitched very well the rest of the way (5.74 ERA before the surgery, 2.45 after). Mike Stanton, middle relief, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 3.55 70 0 6 3 1 99 89 13 41 89 .241 .712 Prorated NYA 3.55 45 0 4 2 1 64 57 8 26 57 .241 .712 Actual NYA 4.33 73 1 2 2 0 62 71 5 18 59 .289 .760 The home run ball, which had victimized Stanton in 1998, wasn't as much of a problem last season, which accounted for the drop in his ERA (from 5.47 to 4.33) despite the fact that he was quite a bit easier to hit than expected. He made the first start of his career in 1999 on May 9th against Seattle. He pitched four scoreless innings but left with a 4-0 lead, one inning shy of qualifying for the victory. He had made 552 relief appearances prior to that start, breaking Gary Lavelle's record. Lavelle had made 434 relief appearance before starting for the first time back in August of 1981. I'll bet that's one record Lavelle never even knew he had. Jason Grimsley, middle relief, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYA 5.93 30 0 3 4 0 58 66 7 37 39 .293 .861 Prorated NYA 5.93 37 0 4 5 0 72 82 9 46 49 .293 .861 Actual NYA 3.60 55 0 7 2 1 75 66 7 40 49 .231 .683 When Grimsley last appeared in the major leagues, he was putting up a 6.84 ERA for the 1996 California Angels. New York was his fourth organization since then, and he was not counted upon to make much of a contribution. He got hot early and was one of the most valuable middle relievers during the first two months of the season. When Nelson went on the DL in early June, the Yankees attempted to move Grimsley into the setup role but he pitched poorly and was moved back to middle relief. He was streaky throughout the year -- at one point in late July and early August he retired only one of eleven batters over a four-game span -- but finished with a strong September. OutlookThe Yankees once again haven't made a lot of changes during the off-season. Chad Curtis and Hidecki Irabu were traded away for prospects; Joe Girardi left as a free agent, while Chili Davis retired. None of these players figured prominently in their future plans, although New York does need to find a replacement for Girardi. Replacing most of the others shouldn't be a problem, as New York has a loaded farm system. Shortstop prospect D'Angelo Jiminez should make the team next year as a back-up infielder, and Alfonso Soriano is not far behind him. If either Knoblauch or Brosius needs replacing, these players seem capable of doing the job. Nick Johnson could take over for Tino Martinez in time for 2001. Pitcher Ed Yarnall is coming off a 13-4 season at their AAA club (where he won the Internation League Most Valuable Pitcher award) and is slated to replace Irabu in the starting rotation. One notable thing about the Yankees last year was how relatively injury-free they were. For the most part, their position players were able to stay in the lineup all year, and their five starting pitchers accounted for all but 10 of the team's starts. I wouldn't expect this run of good fortune to continue through next year as well, but given their farm system, this team seems better equipped than most to handle a string of injuries to key players. They probably won't go 11-2 or 11-1 in the post-season again, but they should make their sixth straight playoff appearance in 2000. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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