Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Oakland Athletics By Sherri Nichols This article takes a look at how the Oakland Athletics did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 839 893 Runs allowed 870 846 Run margin -31 47 Wins 76 87 Pythagorean Wins 78 85 Placement 4th 2nd Billy Beane is a crazy man. He seems to think he can build a playoff contending team with a $30 million payroll, a football stadium, uncertain ownership, and indifferent fans. The A's really have become the red-headed stepchild of the Bay Area, with the Giants picking off the plum TV and radio outlets and opening a new stadium next season, while the Warriors and Raiders get Oakland to shell out big bucks to renovate their homes (trashing the A's home in the process.) The current A's owners had a deal to sell the team to a group that promised to keep them in Oakland, but major league owners effectively killed the deal by postponing any decision on ownership changes until their task force on small market teams completes its work. Even though the A's were in the wild-card race down the stretch, nobody came to see them. Despite all that, Billy Beane put together a team that outperformed everybody's expectations, and made several trades during the season that improved the team both in 1999 and for the future. The A's have more players closer to their prime than they did a year ago, with most of the 40something veterans gone, and the young players with another year of experience. There are more young players bubbling up through the farm system, as well. Maybe the key question for Oakland fans (both of them) is, how long before Billy Beane is lured away to somewhere his work will be better appreciated. Key Position PlayersOakland's offense was projected to be middle of the pack, but was actually 4th in the AL. Better than expected performances at short, first base, and DH helped key the production. Oakland has gotten both younger and older than at this point last year, with the young players gaining a year of experience, and the 40-year-olds from last year gone. Only three key position players for Oakland are over thirty: John Jaha, Matt Stairs, and Randy Velarde. One concern about Oakland is their defense. Ben Grieve is not a good defensive outfielder, and Matt Stairs doesn't cover much ground, either, though he has a better arm than Grieve. Moving either of them to first base is not an option, because Jason Giambi is entrenched there, and John Jaha has the DH slot. Ramon Hernandez, c, age 23 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 68 16 2 0 2 9 11 2 4 0 8 0 0 .235 .293 .353 .646 7 Prorated Oak 143 33 4 0 4 18 23 4 8 0 16 0 0 .231 .290 .343 .633 15 Actual Oak 136 38 7 0 3 13 21 1 18 0 11 1 0 .279 .363 .397 .760 20 Hernandez out hit Hinch this year, and has moved ahead of him in the A's thinking. He's younger, and put up respectable numbers offensively for a catcher in his limited action. With Macfarlane's retirement, and Hinch's offensive struggles, Hernandez is the leading candidate for the regular catching job. A. J. Hinch, c, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 441 110 14 0 12 49 50 6 43 1 105 4 0 .249 .320 .363 .683 54 Prorated Oak 196 49 6 0 5 21 22 2 19 0 46 1 0 .250 .318 .357 .675 23 Actual Oak 205 44 4 1 7 26 24 2 11 0 41 6 2 .215 .260 .346 .607 19 Hinch has yet to meet expectations in the majors, and though he's young enough that he might still figure it out, he's no longer going to get the benefit of the doubt about playing through slumps. Mike Macfarlane, c, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 85 21 5 0 3 11 12 2 7 1 15 0 0 .247 .316 .412 .728 11 Prorated Oak 220 54 12 0 7 28 31 5 18 2 38 0 0 .245 .314 .395 .710 29 Actual Oak 226 55 17 0 4 24 31 1 13 0 52 0 0 .243 .282 .372 .653 23 Macfarlane retired at the end of the season, and the A's have no plans to sign another veteran catcher to provide a safety net should Hernandez and Hinch struggle. Jason Giambi, 1b, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 575 168 37 1 25 86 99 5 73 5 100 0 1 .292 .372 .490 .862 106 Prorated Oak 603 176 38 1 26 90 103 5 76 5 104 0 1 .292 .371 .488 .858 110 Actual Oak 575 181 36 1 33 115 123 7 105 6 106 1 1 .315 .422 .553 .975 142 Giambi has increased his walk totals significantly each of the last two seasons, going from 55 in 1997 to 81 in 1998 to last year's 105. Matt Stairs and John Jaha also saw significant increases in their walk totals. The team as a whole drew almost 140 more walks than a year ago, leading the majors in walks in 1999. Hitting coach Dave Hudgens must have been doing something right; unfortunately, the team's low batting average (never mind all those runs!) doomed him, and he's moved on to another job in the organization. Thad Bosley is the new hitting coach. Bosley was not that big a fan of the free pass as a player, but maybe a year of greeting all those batters at first base has sold him on it. John Jaha, DH, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 63 14 2 0 3 10 11 1 11 0 17 0 0 .222 .347 .397 .743 9 Prorated Oak 478 106 15 0 22 76 83 7 83 0 129 0 0 .222 .345 .391 .736 67 Actual Oak 457 126 23 0 35 93 111 9 101 2 129 2 0 .276 .414 .556 .970 111 Oakland picked Jaha off the scrap heap in Milwaukee, where he had seldom managed to stay healthy. The A's handed him a glove only 8 times last season, and he got through the year without a single visit to the DL. If he can continue to stay healthy, the A's have a solid DH. If not, the A's can choose a DH from a backlog of prospects (such as Texas League triple-crown winner Adam Piatt) at third base/outfield/first base who currently have no place to play, . Tony Phillips, 2b/cf/lf/rf/3b/dh/ss, age 40AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 549 143 34 1 8 94 53 4 108 4 123 9 8 .260 .383 .370 .753 86 Prorated Oak 397 103 24 0 5 68 38 2 78 2 88 6 5 .259 .381 .358 .739 60 Actual Oak 406 99 24 4 15 76 49 5 71 3 94 11 3 .244 .362 .433 .795 69 Tony Phillips was doing what Tony Phillips does best, play everyday, without being a regular at any position. Despite being 40 years old, he was having a pretty typical Tony Phillips year until he broke his leg. He became a free agent when the A's didn't offer him arbitration, so he'll be elsewhere next year. Scott Spiezio, 2b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 543 136 28 2 15 70 72 2 54 4 74 4 4 .250 .318 .392 .711 68 Prorated Oak 252 63 13 0 6 32 33 0 25 1 34 1 1 .250 .317 .373 .690 30 Actual Oak 247 60 24 0 8 31 33 2 29 3 36 0 0 .243 .324 .437 .761 36 Spiezio fell out of favor in Oakland, losing his job first to Tony Phillips and then to Randy Velarde. As a backup, he put up decent numbers, but the A's decided to let him go, and he signed with the Angels for 2000. Jorge Velandia, 2b/ss, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 69 15 3 0 0 6 6 1 3 0 9 1 1 .217 .257 .261 .518 4 Prorated Oak 46 10 2 0 0 4 4 0 2 0 6 0 0 .217 .250 .261 .511 3 Actual Oak 48 9 1 0 0 4 2 1 2 0 13 2 0 .188 .235 .208 .444 3 A utility infielder, Velandia is the primary backup right now for Randy Velarde, as well as the backup shortstop for Miguel Tejada. Velandia is coming off an ankle injury, Velarde is 37 years old, and playing your shortstop 159 games a season takes a toll. The A's could use some more help here. Randy Velarde, 2b, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ana 575 148 35 3 10 79 64 6 88 0 125 14 8 .257 .361 .381 .742 82 Prorated Ana 363 93 22 1 6 49 40 3 55 0 78 8 5 .256 .358 .372 .730 50 Actual Ana 376 115 15 4 9 57 48 4 43 1 56 13 4 .306 .383 .439 .822 65 Prorated Oak 244 62 14 1 4 33 27 2 37 0 53 5 3 .254 .357 .369 .726 33 Actual Oak 255 85 10 3 7 48 28 2 27 1 42 11 4 .333 .401 .478 .880 47 Prorated Tot 607 156 36 3 10 83 67 6 92 0 132 14 8 .257 .359 .376 .735 85 Actual Tot 631 200 25 7 16 105 76 6 70 2 98 24 8 .317 .390 .455 .845 112 Velarde came over in the trade that also brought Omar Olivares, and stabilized the second base position after Tony Phillips went down with a broken leg. He had a great couple of months with the A's, prompting them to sign him to a two-year deal. Normally, I'm not a big fan of signing 37-year-old middle infielders, but Velarde should give them more than Spiezio or Phillips, and there's not much in the way of immediate help at second base in the farm system. Miguel Tejada, ss, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 533 125 26 2 17 74 71 10 36 0 117 10 8 .235 .292 .386 .679 58 Prorated Oak 609 143 29 2 19 84 81 11 41 0 133 11 9 .235 .292 .383 .675 66 Actual Oak 593 149 33 4 21 93 84 10 57 3 94 8 7 .251 .325 .427 .751 83 Tejada played 159 games at short last year, which is not ideal. If you've got a shortstop capable of hitting 21 homers, don't wear him out by playing him every day; get him some rest, and it will pay off. Eric Chavez, 3b, age 21AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 599 176 51 1 28 98 100 1 35 5 94 10 7 .294 .331 .523 .854 100 Prorated Oak 375 110 31 0 17 61 62 0 21 3 58 6 4 .293 .328 .512 .840 61 Actual Oak 356 88 21 2 13 47 50 0 46 4 56 1 1 .247 .333 .427 .760 51 Chavez struggled at times in his first full major league season, especially against left-handed pitching (.184, no homers), but he was only 21 years old. Even so, he was right about average for AL third basemen, and the A's expect big improvement. His minor league numbers suggest they have good reason for those expectations. Olmedo Saenz, 3b/1b, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 66 17 3 0 3 10 11 3 5 0 8 0 0 .258 .333 .439 .773 10 Prorated Oak 260 67 11 0 11 39 43 11 19 0 31 0 0 .258 .331 .427 .758 37 Actual Oak 255 70 18 0 11 41 41 15 22 1 47 1 1 .275 .363 .475 .837 45 Saenz provides solid backup for Chavez and Giambi, with good power numbers off the bench. He's a right-handed batter who made the team after a strong performance last spring (.368, 5 homers), and manager Art Howe chose to start him in place of Chavez against lefties (Saenz had 33 starts to 2 for Chavez). But he hit well enough to get plenty of atbats against right-handed pitching, too. Ben Grieve, lf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 592 176 42 1 23 104 109 9 90 3 121 2 2 .297 .397 .488 .885 117 Prorated Oak 475 141 33 0 18 83 87 7 72 2 97 1 1 .297 .396 .480 .876 92 Actual Oak 486 129 21 0 28 80 86 8 63 2 108 4 0 .265 .358 .481 .840 83 Grieve got off to a slow start before finally breaking out in June and exceeding projections from that point through the end of the season. Even with his slump, he was still a better than average offensive left fielder, and is still several years away from his peak. Grieve, Chavez, and Tejada make an exciting young core for the A's to build around. Tim Raines, lf, age 39AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 69 20 4 0 1 12 9 0 11 0 10 2 1 .290 .383 .391 .774 11 Prorated Oak 139 40 8 0 2 24 18 0 22 0 20 4 2 .288 .380 .388 .769 22 Actual Oak 135 29 5 0 4 20 17 0 26 1 17 4 1 .215 .337 .341 .678 17 Raines was not having a good season, but it got much worse in August when he was diagnosed with lupus. Though Raines had hoped to play in the majors long enough so that his son Tim Jr. could join him, it seems likely that his career is over after 21 seasons. In his prime, Raines was a quality leadoff hitter, known for his stolen bases but just as valuable for his ability to get on base. He finishes with over 2500 hits and over 800 stolen bases, but likely falls a little short of the Hall of Fame. Rich Becker, cf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mil 69 17 3 1 1 10 7 0 10 0 20 2 1 .246 .342 .362 .704 9 Prorated Mil 150 36 6 2 2 21 15 0 21 0 43 4 2 .240 .333 .347 .680 18 Actual Mil 139 35 5 2 5 15 16 0 33 0 38 5 0 .252 .395 .424 .820 26 Prorated Oak 131 32 5 1 1 19 13 0 19 0 38 3 1 .244 .340 .321 .661 16 Actual Oak 125 33 3 0 1 21 10 2 25 0 43 3 2 .264 .395 .312 .707 17 Prorated Tot 282 69 12 4 4 40 28 0 40 0 81 8 4 .245 .339 .358 .697 36 Actual Tot 264 68 8 2 6 36 26 2 58 0 81 8 2 .258 .395 .371 .766 43 So far, the A's have been unable to pry Jim Edmonds loose from the Angels, so they'll be looking for a center field solution among a pool of candidates including Rich Becker. Right now, it doesn't look like anybody has the inside edge, but Becker did help himself in the race by posting that .395 OBP last year. Ideally, the A's would like their center fielder to also lead off. Ryan Christenson, cf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 616 160 37 5 9 105 64 2 71 0 169 11 10 .260 .335 .380 .715 83 Prorated Oak 277 72 16 2 4 47 28 0 31 0 76 4 4 .260 .332 .375 .708 36 Actual Oak 268 56 12 1 4 41 24 1 38 0 58 7 5 .209 .305 .306 .611 27 Christenson's advantage in the center field derby is that he's perceived as a good defensive center fielder. With Matt Stairs and Ben Grieve in the outfield, the A's need somebody to cover a lot of ground in center. Other candidates for the job include Mario Encarnacion and Terrence Long. Matt Stairs, rf, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 543 158 33 1 30 91 108 5 68 3 95 5 3 .291 .372 .521 .893 107 Prorated Oak 543 158 33 1 30 91 108 5 68 3 95 5 3 .291 .372 .521 .893 106 Actual Oak 531 137 26 3 38 94 102 2 89 6 124 2 7 .258 .366 .533 .899 105 The overall numbers for Stairs are right in line with projections, with a few shifts here and there: fewer doubles, more homers, fewer hits, more walks. The main concern with Stairs is a history of small, nagging injuries; if the A's have to play Stairs at DH, then John Jaha is relegated to the bench, and Ben Grieve has to move to right, neither of which is ideal. Key PitchersThe pitching staff was the weak link for the team going into last season, but the pitching staff coming out of the season bears little resemblance to that one. During the season, GM Billy Beane traded for two starters (Kevin Appier and Omar Olivares), brought another starter up from the minors (Tim Hudson), and traded his closer away for a new one (Jason Isringhausen). After the season, Beane has gone to work on the bullpen, clearing out some of the role pitchers who weren't effective last season and signing some new arms. The staff looks much stronger headed into next season, with some young arms in the minors waiting in the wings. Kevin Appier, starter, age 31 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection KC 4.40 32 32 10 10 0 178 186 22 63 161 .270 .761 Prorated KC 4.40 26 26 8 8 0 142 148 18 50 129 .270 .761 Actual KC 4.87 22 22 9 9 0 140 153 18 51 78 .279 .783 Prorated Oak 4.40 13 13 4 4 0 73 76 9 26 66 .270 .761 Actual Oak 5.77 12 12 7 5 0 69 77 9 33 53 .280 .826 Prorated Tot 4.40 39 39 12 12 0 215 224 27 76 194 .270 .761 Actual Tot 5.17 34 34 16 14 0 209 230 27 84 131 .279 .798 The A's picked up the option on Kevin Appier, probably assuming that they had no chance to sign Omar Olivares. Of the pitchers with sure rotation spots for next season, Appier had the worst season, and though he'll probably begin the season as the top starter, he may lose that distinction to Tim Hudson if he doesn't improve over last year. Appier was coming off shoulder surgery the season before, so it's not unreasonable to expect improvement for next season. Tom Candiotti, starter, age 41Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 5.69 32 32 8 14 0 187 222 32 62 99 .297 .849 Prorated Oak 5.69 10 10 2 4 0 57 68 10 19 30 .297 .849 Actual Oak 6.35 11 11 3 5 0 57 67 11 23 30 .298 .873 Prorated Cle 5.69 3 3 1 1 0 16 19 3 5 9 .297 .849 Actual Cle 11.05 7 2 1 1 0 15 19 3 7 11 .306 .934 Prorated Tot 5.69 13 13 3 5 0 73 87 13 24 39 .297 .849 Actual Tot 7.32 18 13 4 6 0 71 86 14 30 41 .300 .886 Candiotti didn't have a good season for Oakland, obviously, and the combination of the emergence of his age and the arrival of Tim Hudson earned him his unconditional release. Jimmy Haynes, starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 5.90 32 32 8 14 0 180 215 23 95 143 .298 .850 Prorated Oak 5.90 25 25 6 11 0 141 168 18 74 112 .298 .850 Actual Oak 6.34 30 25 7 12 0 142 158 21 80 93 .282 .837 The A's gave up on Haynes after waiting three years for him to put it together. Instead his ERA got worse each year. Now Milwaukee will give it a try. Tim Hudson, starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Oak 3.23 21 21 11 2 0 136 121 8 62 132 .237 .662 Hudson was the surprise of the season, making the move from AA to AAA to the majors in his third professional season. Had he put up those numbers for a full year, he would have trailed only Pedro Martinez in ERA. [TT: Although Hudson had performed very well in the low minors, we projected no 1999 playing time for him because he had accumulated only 22 starts above A ball through the end of the 1998 season and wasn't especially impressive, walking 71 batters in 135 innings and posting a 4.54 ERA. The big difference was that his control was better in 1999 than it had been at any of his minor-league stops.] Gil Heredia, starter, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 5.46 32 32 9 15 0 208 259 30 37 132 .307 .827 Prorated Oak 5.46 30 30 9 14 0 197 246 29 35 126 .307 .827 Actual Oak 4.81 33 33 13 8 0 200 228 22 34 117 .283 .759 Heredia had a better than expected year for the A's, and has earned a spot in the rotation for 2000. Should he stumble, there are several good young pitchers poised to take his place. Mark Mulder, Ron Mahay, Brett Laxton, and Barry Zito will all be battling it out for the last rotation spot, and whoever doesn't win it will be waiting for someone else to stumble. Omar Olivares, starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ana 4.87 32 32 12 12 0 201 219 21 95 115 .281 .792 Prorated Ana 4.87 20 20 7 7 0 125 136 13 59 72 .281 .792 Actual Ana 4.05 20 20 8 9 0 131 135 11 49 49 .273 .736 Prorated Oak 4.87 12 12 4 4 0 73 80 8 35 42 .281 .792 Actual Oak 4.34 12 12 7 2 0 75 82 8 32 36 .283 .820 Prorated Tot 4.87 32 32 12 12 0 199 216 21 94 114 .281 .792 Actual Tot 4.16 32 32 15 11 0 206 217 19 81 85 .276 .767 The A's didn't expect to be able to re-sign Olivares, but when the free agent market wasn't as lucrative as Olivares had hoped, he and the A's were able to work out a deal. With Olivares, Appier, and Hudson, the A's have a solid top of the rotation, and there are lots of young arms to help fill out the bottom. Mike Oquist, starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 5.87 27 4 3 5 0 69 84 11 26 47 .302 .855 Prorated Oak 5.87 55 8 6 10 0 140 170 22 53 95 .302 .855 Actual Oak 5.37 28 24 9 10 0 141 158 18 64 89 .283 .830 Oquist had a better than projected season for the A's last year, but not good enough to be a favorite in the battle for rotation slots next season. Oquist signed a minor league contract with the Detroit Tigers. Kenny Rogers, starter, age 34Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 4.21 32 32 12 12 0 210 213 21 77 120 .266 .737 Prorated Oak 4.21 19 19 7 7 0 124 126 12 45 71 .266 .737 Actual Oak 4.30 19 19 5 3 0 119 135 8 41 68 .288 .740 Prorated NYN 4.21 11 11 4 4 0 74 75 7 27 42 .266 .737 Actual NYN 4.03 12 12 5 1 0 76 71 8 28 58 .253 .723 Prorated Tot 4.21 30 30 11 11 0 198 201 20 73 113 .266 .737 Actual Tot 4.19 31 31 10 4 0 195 206 16 69 126 .275 .734 Rogers was due to become a free agent, and the A's didn't figure to be able to resign him, and didn't seem to have a lot of interest in doing so. As a result, he was traded to the Mets for a couple of prospects, including Terrence Long, who will be given a shot to win the center field job. Buddy Groom, middle relief, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 4.42 70 0 4 4 1 71 81 7 28 49 .288 .775 Prorated Oak 4.42 44 0 2 2 1 44 50 4 17 30 .288 .775 Actual Oak 5.09 76 0 3 2 0 46 48 1 18 32 .274 .677 Groom was the designated lefty last season, the guy who gets brought in to face the tough left-handed batter, and then comes right out of the game. With a .245 batting average allowed to opposing left handed batters, he wasn't as effective as the A's would have liked, so Groom was allowed to leave as a free agent. Doug Jones, reliever, age 42Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 3.94 53 0 4 3 0 75 81 11 14 68 .275 .757 Prorated Oak 3.94 72 0 5 4 0 102 110 15 19 92 .275 .757 Actual Oak 3.55 70 0 5 5 10 104 106 10 24 63 .267 .717 Doug Jones is insurance in case Isringhausen falters or gets hurt, though he'd be a stopgap at best. Jones only converted 10 of 16 save opportunities last season, and he'll be 43 next season. Greg McMichael, reliever, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYN 3.90 23 0 2 2 0 32 33 3 11 28 .266 .716 Prorated NYN 3.90 14 0 1 1 0 20 20 2 7 17 .266 .716 Actual NYN 4.82 19 0 1 1 0 19 20 3 8 18 .270 .810 Prorated Oak 3.90 12 0 1 1 0 16 17 2 6 14 .266 .716 Actual Oak 5.40 17 0 0 0 0 15 15 3 12 3 .283 .936 Prorated Tot 3.90 26 0 2 2 0 36 37 3 12 31 .266 .716 Actual Tot 5.08 36 0 1 1 0 34 35 6 20 21 .276 .866 In a limited stint with the A's, McMichael didn't show much to convince the A's to re-sign him. At press time, McMichael is still a free agent. Brad Rigby, reliever, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 5.72 27 27 6 11 0 146 179 21 47 72 .304 .840 Prorated Oak 5.72 12 12 3 5 0 63 77 9 20 31 .304 .840 Actual Oak 4.33 29 0 3 4 0 62 69 5 26 26 .284 .777 Prorated KC 5.72 4 4 1 2 0 23 29 3 8 12 .304 .840 Actual KC 7.17 20 0 1 2 0 21 33 6 5 10 .351 .963 Prorated Tot 5.72 16 16 4 6 0 86 106 12 28 42 .304 .840 Actual Tot 5.06 49 0 4 6 0 84 102 11 31 36 .303 .828 Rigby was projected as a starter, but instead spent his time in Oakland in the bullpen, where he was moderately effective. Rigby was included in the package sent to Kansas City for Kevin Appier. Tim Worrell, reliever, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 4.98 40 0 3 4 0 69 75 9 25 51 .279 .800 Prorated Oak 4.98 41 0 3 4 0 71 77 9 26 53 .279 .800 Actual Oak 4.15 53 0 2 2 0 69 69 6 34 62 .256 .737 At first glance, these numbers don't look that bad. Worrell only gave up a hit an inning, his walk to strikeout ratio was near 2, and a 4.15 ERA was right around the league average for relievers in 1999. So why are the A's ready to dump Worrell? Maybe because he allowed half the runners he inherited to score, and the league average is around 35%. Ron Mahay, reliever/starter, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 4.05 53 0 3 2 0 53 54 7 27 43 .262 .763 Prorated Oak 4.05 15 0 1 1 0 15 15 2 8 12 .262 .763 Actual Oak 1.86 6 1 2 0 1 19 8 2 3 15 .123 .377 The A's kept Mahay in AAA most of last season to give him some experience as a starter, which he had never done before. He's now one of the leading candidates for the starting rotation for next season. There's a lot of competition for the rotation though, so Mahay could find himself back in the bullpen, particularly if newly signed lefty reliever Mike Magnante struggles. TJ Mathews, setup man, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 3.87 70 0 6 4 2 98 95 10 39 80 .256 .735 Prorated Oak 3.87 40 0 3 2 1 56 55 6 22 46 .256 .735 Actual Oak 3.81 50 0 9 5 3 59 46 9 20 42 .215 .665 A solid performance for Mathews, despite bone spurs in his elbow. Mathews will be coming off arthroscopic surgery this season, but it's not expected to present a problem. Jason Isringhausen, closer, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection NYN 5.23 4 4 1 1 0 21 25 2 10 15 .301 .813 Prorated NYN 5.23 7 7 2 2 0 39 47 4 19 28 .301 .813 Actual NYN 6.41 13 5 1 3 1 39 43 7 22 31 .279 .894 Prorated Oak 5.23 4 4 1 1 0 23 28 2 11 17 .301 .813 Actual Oak 2.13 20 0 0 1 8 25 21 2 12 20 .223 .648 Prorated Tot 5.23 12 12 3 3 0 62 74 6 30 45 .301 .813 Actual Tot 4.73 33 5 1 4 9 65 64 9 34 51 .258 .801 Isringhausen asked for a shot at the closer job left open by the trade of Billy Taylor, and converted 9 saves in 9 opportunities for the A's. Isringhausen is now the A's closer. The major concern here is his history of arm troubles. Billy Taylor, closer, age 37Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Oak 3.67 70 0 4 6 29 74 72 6 26 66 .257 .715 Prorated Oak 3.67 42 0 2 4 17 44 43 4 16 40 .257 .715 Actual Oak 3.98 43 0 1 5 26 43 48 3 14 38 .287 .747 Prorated NYN 3.67 15 0 1 1 6 16 16 1 6 14 .257 .715 Actual NYN 8.10 18 0 0 1 0 13 20 2 9 14 .345 1.002 Prorated Tot 3.67 57 0 3 5 24 60 59 5 21 54 .257 .715 Actual Tot 4.95 61 0 1 6 26 56 68 5 23 52 .302 .813 Taylor was less effective in the closer role than in the past, converting less than 80% of save opportunities, and allowing more baserunners than in the past. That's probably why the A's were willing to trade their closer in the middle of a pennant race even though there was no obvious replacement. OutlookI wouldn't go so far as to make the A's the favorite to win the AL West, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did it next season. Nobody else in the division looks like they're going to run away with the crown, and if the A's young players put it together next season, and they get another solid pitcher out of their minor league system, the A's could be in the playoffs next season. Will anyone notice? Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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