Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Philadelphia Phillies By Jon Dunkle This article takes a look at how the Philadelphia Phillies did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 700 841 Runs allowed 740 846 Run Margin -40 -5 Wins 78 77 Pythagorean wins 77 81 Placement 3rd 3rd The Phillies were actually in the playoff picture for most of the first half of the season. Then the team began to fall apart . . . literally. Closer-to-be Jeff Brantley, who was on the disabled list early in the year, returned in May, stuck around for a week, and then was put back on for the remainder of the season. Number three starter Carlton Loewer went on the DL a few weeks later. Shortstop Desi Relaford was next. An already crippled team was dealt the crushing blow when ace pitcher Curt Schilling developed shoulder problems and did not pitch after late July. Star third baseman Scott Rolen missed almost 50 games with back problems although he never went on the disabled list. A shaky bullpen lost top lefty Yorkis Perez and righty Steve Montgomery. The Phillies were 57-47 at the end of the July and still hanging in there. But with the rash of injuries, the Phils could only muster a 20-38 record the rest of the way. Those injuries highlighted two of the biggest problems that the Phillies had -- a lack of depth and a poor bullpen. The bench was comprised almost entirely of utility infielders. A couple, particularly Alex Arias, were effective, but there is a reason why utility infielders are not major league starters. The highlight for the bullpen came after the season with the acquisition of closer Mike Jackson. The Phillies had fewer saves than any other team in the majors, and it's likely that the shaky relief corps contributed to Curt Schilling's injury, which occurred in the wake of several high-pitch-count outings in which he went the distance rather than trust a lead to the pen. The offense ended up carrying the team. Mike Lieberthal and Bobby Abreu had breakout seasons that established them as premiere players at their positions. Doug Glanville showed that he can be a successful leadoff hitter for a full season and Rico Brogna knocked in 100 runs and displayed his Gold Glove caliber defensive skills. Despite his injuries, Rolen put up good numbers for the Phils. The Phillies are an exciting team to watch. They have a lot of young stars, both offensively and defensively. While only Lieberthal won a Gold Glove in 1999, Rolen is a past winner and Brogna and Glanville are deserving. The Phils needed strong defense with the pitching staff that they had last year, and they will need arms to go with the bats if they want to be contenders. Key Position PlayersBreakout seasons were the rule for the Phillies in 1999. Bobby Abreu showed that he is one of the top hitters in the National League in just his second full season. Catcher Mike Lieberthal became the power threat the Phils so desperately have needed for the last few seasons. Doug Glanville demonstrated that the second half of 1998 was an aberration and that he can be a .300 hitter for an entire season. Scott Rolen, Rico Brogna, and Ron Gant also put up solid numbers. Offensively and defensively, however, the Phils are weakest at the middle infield positions. Shortstop Desi Relaford and second baseman Marlon Anderson are below average at their positions and both have defensive flaws. Relaford suffers from mental lapses and an erratic arm while Anderson has difficulties turning the double play. The Phillies lineup also is limited by the managing of Terry Francona. Francona is an astute handler of young talent but has problems with his lineup construction. Most notable were his use of Bobby Abreu, who had the third highest batting average and on base percentage in the National League, in the sixth position in the batting order and his utilization of Rico Brogna, one of the worst producing first basemen, in the cleanup spot. Rookie Marlon Anderson and his .292 OBP were in the #2 spot in the order for most of the season as well. How many runs Francona cost the team is undeterminable but one has to think that better application of the players' abilities is a requirement for the Phils to be successful down the road. Mike Lieberthal, c, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 475 116 24 2 16 59 72 7 35 1 72 3 3 .244 .301 .404 .705 58 Prorated Phi 519 126 26 2 17 64 78 7 38 1 78 3 3 .243 .299 .399 .698 62 Actual Phi 510 153 33 1 31 84 96 11 44 7 86 0 0 .300 .363 .551 .914 100 Until 1999, Lieberthal was a dead pull hitter. Last season, however, Lieberthal realized that he could be successful going with the pitch and taking it the other way. The result was an offensive season that put him in the top echelon of catchers. As is often the case, the sudden increase in his hitting output brought attention to his already impressive defensive skills. Lieberthal has a strong arm and rarely makes errors. His caught stealing percentage last season was deceptively poor in that few of the Phillies pitchers have any ability in holding baserunners on once they reach first. Gary Bennett, c, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 70 16 3 0 2 6 8 0 4 0 10 0 0 .229 .267 .357 .624 6 Prorated Phi 87 20 3 0 2 7 10 0 5 0 12 0 0 .230 .269 .333 .602 8 Actual Phi 88 24 4 0 1 7 21 0 4 0 11 0 0 .273 .298 .352 .650 7 A solid number two catcher. Bennett calls a good game and outside of a low walk rate and an occasional throwing error, does little to hurt the team offensively or defensively. Most of the time he was used to give Lieberthal rest but he got a stretch in July where he was the everyday catcher while Lieberthal was out with a sore elbow. Bobby Estalella, c, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 88 20 5 0 5 12 14 1 12 0 21 0 0 .227 .324 .455 .778 13 Prorated Phi 18 4 1 0 1 2 3 0 2 0 4 0 0 .222 .300 .444 .744 2 Actual Phi 18 3 0 0 0 2 1 0 4 0 7 0 1 .167 .318 .167 .485 1 The Phillies former catcher of the future. Estalella was traded to the Giants for pitcher Chris Brock during the offseason as the Phils sought to bolster their rotation. Estalella spent 1999 recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. When he wasn't on the disabled list, he was in the minors rehabilitating except for a pair of brief callups. Before his injury, Estalella was a decent power hitter who helped his offense by walking a good deal. He was very good defensively, but his repaired shoulder will be tested by major league runners. Tom Prince, c, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 65 15 4 0 1 9 8 2 6 1 14 0 0 .231 .315 .338 .654 8 Prorated Phi 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 Actual Phi 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 .167 .286 .167 .452 0 The veteran reserve catcher missed the majority of the season with torn wrist ligaments resulting from a checked swing in April. Rico Brogna, 1b, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 620 160 39 1 21 77 100 0 48 7 131 8 6 .258 .307 .426 .733 79 Prorated Phi 621 160 39 1 21 77 100 0 48 7 131 8 6 .258 .307 .425 .732 79 Actual Phi 619 172 29 4 24 90 102 2 54 7 132 8 5 .278 .336 .454 .790 91 Brogna should have won the Gold Glove award in 1999. Brogna has great range and is especially good at stopping balls down the line. Maybe more important are the number of errant throws from the left side of the infield that he is able to dig out of the dirt. Overall, he is far and away the best defensive first baseman in the majors. But first basemen are supposed to hit, and his offensive contributions leave a lot to be desired. Brogna did drive in 100 runs for the second year in a row, but that has been primarily a function of having Doug Glanville et al batting ahead of him. His .790 OPS was the lowest in the National League among everyday first basemen. On the plus side, he improved dramatically against left-handed pitchers, actually posting a higher slugging percentage against them than he did against righties. He is fan favorite in Philadelphia and enjoyable to watch, but if the Phillies want to be a contender, Francona needs to find someone who will be more successful in the cleanup position in the lineup. [TT: Jon sees Brogna play a lot more than I do, and I respect his opinion about Brogna's defense. In the interest of full disclosure, however, I must point out that our defensive analysis showed that John Olerud was slightly better than Brogna in 1999. Either of these two would have been a much better Gold Glove choice than J. T. Snow, who has for years posted superior fielding percentages while reaching many fewer batted balls than several others at his position.] Marlon Anderson, 2b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 539 136 23 7 9 74 60 6 16 1 69 20 9 .252 .280 .371 .651 55 Prorated Phi 456 115 19 5 7 62 50 5 13 0 58 16 7 .252 .279 .362 .641 45 Actual Phi 452 114 26 4 5 48 54 2 24 1 61 13 2 .252 .292 .361 .652 49 The Phillies act as if Anderson's season was somewhat of a disappointment, which is just another example of supposedly informed people taking things out of context. In 1998, Anderson hit .306 at AAA and .326 in a brief September callup. Even though these were his best batting averages of his minor-league career, the Phils seemed to think that they had a major-league .300 hitter on their hands. If they had examined his season in the context of his career and where he played, they would have been expecting the 1999 season that Anderson produced. In the field, Anderson performed admirably for a first year player, but he is perceived as less than adequate. He does not turn the double play well, but he covers ground pretty well and was at the league average in fielding percentage. The reality is that Marlon Anderson will probably not develop into much more than an average second baseman with above average speed. But if he is the weak link in the lineup, as he might well be considered right now, it will be enough for the Phils to succeed. [TT: Anderson was replaced defensively (usually by David Doster) more often than any other player in the majors in 1999.] David Doster, 2b, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 69 17 4 0 2 9 10 1 4 0 10 1 1 .246 .293 .391 .685 8 Prorated Phi 103 25 5 0 2 13 14 1 5 0 14 1 1 .243 .282 .350 .631 10 Actual Phi 97 19 2 0 3 9 10 0 12 1 23 1 0 .196 .282 .309 .591 9 Doster's first full year at the major league level was spent in the field, an inning at a time. Doster played second base 70 times in games he did not start. His 99 appearances exceeded his at bats by two. The role Doster played is a pretty specific one and not a very productive way for a roster spot to be filled. With the wealth of utility players the Philles have, Doster will find it difficult to spend a second straight year in The Show. Torey Lovullo, 2b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 66 15 3 0 2 9 9 0 8 0 9 0 0 .227 .307 .364 .670 8 Prorated Phi 36 8 1 0 1 4 4 0 4 0 4 0 0 .222 .300 .333 .633 4 Actual Phi 38 8 0 0 2 3 5 0 3 0 11 0 0 .211 .268 .368 .637 4 Lovullo set a career high for home runs at AAA in 1999. The last two seasons have been the best of his career. He has never been a major league hitter but probably has a few seasons left in him as a minor leaguer. Scott Rolen, 3b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 548 156 39 2 30 98 93 11 78 4 123 13 6 .285 .381 .527 .908 115 Prorated Phi 423 120 30 1 23 75 71 8 60 3 95 10 4 .284 .380 .522 .902 88 Actual Phi 421 113 28 1 26 74 77 3 67 2 114 12 2 .268 .368 .525 .893 86 Another perceived disappointment by the Phillies. It was indeed a disappointment from the perspective of playing time as Rolen missed almost 50 games because of a torn ligament in his back and the death of his grandfather. Even with the setbacks, Rolen turned in a good season. His back troubles did not seem to limit him much in the field. Rolen is the leader of this team and without a full productive season from him, the Philles hopes for contention are non-existent. Kevin Jordan, 3b, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 72 19 4 0 1 7 8 0 2 0 10 0 0 .264 .280 .361 .641 7 Prorated Phi 364 96 20 0 5 35 40 0 10 0 50 0 0 .264 .280 .360 .640 34 Actual Phi 347 99 17 3 4 36 51 6 24 1 34 0 0 .285 .339 .386 .726 44 Jordan saw much more playing time than anyone had hoped or probably wanted. He was primarily a platoon at second base to begin the season but filled in for Rolen in his prolonged absence and played some first base as well. His production makes him a utility player at best, something the Phils have in abundance. Alex Arias, ss, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 92 25 5 0 1 11 10 1 8 1 12 1 0 .272 .337 .359 .695 11 Prorated Phi 351 95 19 0 3 42 38 3 30 3 45 3 0 .271 .333 .350 .684 42 Actual Phi 347 105 20 1 4 43 48 4 36 6 31 2 2 .303 .373 .401 .773 51 A career year for Arias was the result of an injury to Desi Relaford. With Relaford out, Arias was given an opportunity to play shortstop and he made the most of it. He can also play the other infield positions and will likely be used as the main utility infielder in 2000. Desi Relaford, ss, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 559 139 28 2 6 57 48 4 37 2 90 17 7 .249 .297 .338 .635 57 Prorated Phi 219 54 11 0 2 22 18 1 14 0 35 6 2 .247 .292 .324 .617 21 Actual Phi 211 51 11 2 1 31 26 6 19 2 34 4 3 .242 .322 .327 .649 23 Even before his season ended with a torn wrist ligament, Relaford was hampered by injury problems. A sore quadriceps plagued him from spring training on and played a part in his low steal total. The Phillies hope he can contribute offensively and become more consistent in the field. He was benched early in the season after he made several mental errors. Between him and Rolen, the Phillies have the strongest armed left side of the infield around. Relaford's arm is very erratic and he likes to showcase it a lot, taking a little time to set up before releasing. If Relaford can get his head in the game, his defense is good enough to make him a legitimate no-hit, good-field shortstop. Ron Gant, lf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 528 123 24 3 30 80 83 2 68 3 144 13 3 .233 .322 .460 .782 82 Prorated Phi 532 124 24 3 30 80 83 2 68 3 145 13 3 .233 .321 .459 .780 82 Actual Phi 516 134 27 5 17 107 77 1 85 0 112 13 3 .260 .364 .430 .794 88 The 1999 winner of the Phillies' Guy Who Will Provide an Offensive Spark Annual Talent Search. Like previous winners (Zeile, Incaviglia, Jefferies), Gant did not live up to the title. Gant is a notorious slow starter, but his 1999 season included one of the worst Aprils one can imagine (.132 BA, .235 SLG). For the first few weeks starting pitcher Carlton Loewer had more hits. Gant did set a career high in walks, which helped him score over 100 runs. With prospect Pat Burrell waiting in the wings, another slow start may cost Gant his job. Kevin Sefcik, lf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 96 27 4 1 1 13 8 2 8 0 13 2 1 .281 .346 .375 .721 13 Prorated Phi 213 59 8 2 2 28 17 4 17 0 28 4 2 .277 .339 .362 .700 27 Actual Phi 209 58 15 3 1 28 11 1 29 0 24 9 4 .278 .368 .392 .761 32 Sefcik was one of the many utility players on the Phils roster in 1999. He may be the best defensive infielder among the group, but nonetheless went to Instructional League before the season to learn to play the outfield. While not as good defensively as he was in the infield, he was a better than many outfielders who have spent their careers out in the grass. He's not a bad hitter, though his lack of power is a liability for an outfielder. His can-do attitude, hustle and versatility guarantee that he will be around in 2000. Rob Ducey, lf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 86 22 7 1 2 11 8 3 7 1 21 1 1 .256 .330 .430 .760 12 Prorated Phi 201 51 16 2 4 25 18 7 16 2 49 2 2 .254 .327 .413 .740 28 Actual Phi 188 49 10 2 8 29 33 0 38 1 57 2 1 .261 .383 .463 .846 37 Ducey was the the fifth outfielder and the primary left-handed hitter off the bench. He thrived in the role, having a higher OPS than fellow outfielders Gant, Sefcik, and Glanville. The Phillies have a recent history of falling in love with their fifth outfielder (Ruben Amaro, Jr. was there for five years in the nineties) and Ducey will likely continue in the role, especially since the Phils have no other lefties. Billy McMillon, minor league outfielder, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 68 16 4 0 2 9 9 0 6 0 15 1 0 .235 .293 .382 .676 8 McMillon is a career .300 hitter at AA and AAA with a .400 OBP and a .500 SLG. He was acquired from Florida in 1997 for Darren Daulton and hit .292 for the Phils that season, but has not been given a chance since. The Tigers, who desperately need outfield depth, picked him up over the winter, and he may get a chance to show what a good hitter he is. Doug Glanville, cf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 643 181 32 6 6 96 46 5 33 1 74 22 8 .281 .320 .378 .698 79 Prorated Phi 643 181 32 6 6 96 46 5 33 1 74 22 8 .281 .320 .378 .698 79 Actual Phi 628 204 38 6 11 101 73 6 48 1 82 34 2 .325 .376 .457 .833 116 Glanville has helped make the Phillies braintrust look like geniuses. Acquired from the Cubs before the 1998 season, Glanville has developed into a top leadoff hitter. Glanville had hit .300 for the Cubs in 1997 and did so for the first half of 1998 before a horrible tailspin in the second half raised questions. Glanville erased those doubts with a .325 year. And unlike '98, Glanville was consistent, hitting .300 every month except April when he hit .299. Glanville is lightning quick and very smart, talents which help him on the basepaths and in the outfield. He also has an identifying physical characteristic that will help those of you who have not seen the Phillies, assuming Fox actually televises some of their games in 2000. The man never stops smiling. Glanville could be 0 for 4, playing in freezing rain, and having just fouled a pitch of his foot, and the camera will zoom in and you'd think someone told him a funny story. Another one of the Phils who is just fun to watch. Wendell Magee, cf, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 69 16 4 0 2 9 9 0 5 0 13 1 1 .232 .280 .377 .657 7 Prorated Phi 13 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 .231 .286 .231 .516 1 Actual Phi 14 5 1 0 2 4 5 0 1 0 4 0 0 .357 .400 .857 1.257 4 Magee has been a great power hitter in the minors but is off and on in the majors. Magee could probably put up Ron Gant numbers if given the chance to play every day. He is also an acrobatic outfielder, but it will likely be Scranton fans, and not Philadelphians, who watch him in 2000. Bob Abreu, rf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 583 158 29 5 15 77 78 1 87 11 144 22 12 .271 .364 .415 .780 93 Prorated Phi 569 154 28 4 14 75 76 0 84 10 140 21 11 .271 .363 .408 .771 88 Actual Phi 546 183 35 11 20 118 93 3 109 8 113 27 9 .335 .446 .549 .995 142 Kevin Stocker for Bob Abreu. That trade with the Tampa Devil Rays may go down in Phillies history as one of the best deals the club ever made. Abreu blossomed in his second full season in the majors, finishing third in the National League in hitting and on base percentage. He was also fifth in runs, despite spending a third of the season batting in the number six spot, and one of only three players (with Steve Finley and Neifi Perez) in the majors to pull off a triple double in doubles, triples, and homers. Abreu also has one of the best arms in the outfield, which is something considering he competes against the likes of Kotsay, Guerrero, Sosa, and Walker. Abreu is already a star player and has the ability to reach MVP status in the near future. Key PitchersAt this point, the Phils' rotation is questionable. Schilling pitched well until his injury, but he probably won't be ready for opening day. Paul Byrd made the All-Star team but then pitched poorly after a scuffle with the Braves resulting from a hit by pitch left him unwilling to pitch inside. Loewer struggled and was dealt to the Padres in the offseason. Rookie Randy Wolf and surprise starter Robert Person emerged as potential candidates for the rotation but they could not make up for the horrific performances of since departed Chad Ogea and Paul Spoljaric. Curt Schilling, starter, age 32 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 3.18 32 32 16 10 0 238 208 22 57 269 .235 .660 Prorated Phi 3.18 25 25 12 8 0 182 159 17 44 206 .235 .660 Actual Phi 3.54 24 24 15 6 0 180 159 25 44 152 .237 .683 In 1997 and 1998, Curt Schilling pitched over 500 combined innings and completed over 20 games, neither of which any other pitcher in the majors managed to do during that time. He was posting similar workhorse numbers when his shoulder gave out. Despite missing 8-12 starts, Schilling finished second in the majors in complete games in 1999. His desire to pitch and Francona's hesitation to use the bullpen contributed greatly to his overuse. The Phillies have relied on his ability to put up a lot of innings in the past and with him being out until May and then pitching with a repaired arm, it is doubtful they will get the 200 innings they need from him. Paul Byrd, starter, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 3.86 32 32 12 12 0 214 196 25 74 158 .243 .714 Prorated Phi 3.86 31 31 12 12 0 209 191 24 72 154 .243 .714 Actual Phi 4.60 32 32 15 11 0 200 205 34 70 106 .265 .794 Paul Byrd was sailing along nicely in 1999, going 11-5 with a 3.94 in the first half and being selected to pitch in the All-Star game. Early in the second half, Byrd, who relies on pitching inside for success and led the majors in batters hit by pitch, plunked Atlanta's Eddie Perez with a pitch. Perez charged the mound and the result was a bench clearing brawl which ended with Byrd being very shaken up. For the rest of the season, Byrd was reluctant to come inside with his pitches. He had a 5.61 ERA after the break and gave up 2.29 homers per nine innings in the second half, compared to 1.04 in the first. His baserunners per nine innings rose from 10.86 to 14.76. In 2000, with Schilling's ability to pitch in question, Byrd will need to step up his performance. Byrd is going to have to get back to throwing inside, consequences be damned, if he and the Phillies are to succeed. Chad Ogea, starter, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 4.57 32 32 9 11 0 177 188 20 52 125 .272 .761 Prorated Phi 4.57 31 31 9 11 0 172 183 19 51 121 .272 .761 Actual Phi 5.63 36 28 6 12 0 168 192 36 61 77 .288 .880 On the one hand, Ogea had 11 quality starts. On the other hand, he had 17 really awful, terrible, downright ugly starts. There was little good that came out of Ogea's season. He was second in homers allowed, third in doubles allowed, and added insult to injury by continuing to ignore baserunners once they were on base. Opposing basestealers had an 80% success rate, a rate that would have been even higher if not for Lieberthal's arm. Ogea signed with the Tigers in the offseason to a minor league contract but was then drafted by the Devil Rays in the Rule V draft. If you're a Chad Ogea fan, you can hope that the move to Tampa might help him because he is closer to his home in Louisiana. But there is really nothing to suggest that he will be better than he was in 1999. Robert Person, starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 5.22 70 0 2 7 16 69 73 14 37 56 .271 .863 Prorated Tor 5.22 13 0 0 1 3 13 14 3 7 11 .271 .863 Actual Tor 9.82 11 0 0 2 2 11 9 1 15 12 .231 .877 Prorated Phi 5.22 0 4 13 30 131 139 27 70 106 .271 .863 Actual Phi 4.27 31 22 10 5 0 137 130 23 70 127 .252 .801 Prorated Tot 5.22 0 4 15 33 144 153 29 77 117 .271 .863 Actual Tot 4.68 42 22 10 7 2 148 139 24 85 139 .250 .809 In six months, Person went from closer of the future with the Blue Jays to starter of the future with the Phillies. Person, a former Mets prospect, spent the majority of 1998 at AAA in the closer role with the expectation that he would be the Jays' closer in '99. He suffered a hamstring injury early in spring training and began the season on the disabled list after missing almost all of the pre-season. During that time, Billy Koch stepped into the role and when a rusty Person returned and failed badly, Toronto shipped him to Philly for Paul Spoljaric. The Phillies, desperate for a fifth starter, moved him to the rotation after nine relief appearances. The Phils started him slowly, only allowing him to pitch four or five innings a start but cut him loose later. Despite the innings restriction, half of his 22 starts were considered quality starts. He was 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA after the All-Star break. Person has trouble locating his curve which resulted in a lot of walks but he showed that he can get people out if he gets it close enough to the plate. Randy Wolf, starter, age 22Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 6.23 3 3 1 1 0 17 22 3 6 14 .314 .892 Prorated Phi 6.23 21 21 7 7 0 123 156 21 42 99 .314 .892 Actual Phi 5.55 22 21 6 9 0 122 126 20 67 116 .266 .828 Wolf joined the rotation when Loewer was injured and looked as if he might be a phenom, winning his first four decisions. His inexperience caught up to him and he was only able to win a pair of games the rest of the season. Wolf is a very talented pitcher and will have a significant impact on the Phillies' fortunes in 2000. Carlton Loewer, starter, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 5.55 22 22 6 9 0 130 157 17 40 80 .303 .841 Prorated Phi 5.55 15 15 4 6 0 87 106 11 27 54 .303 .841 Actual Phi 5.12 20 13 2 6 0 90 100 9 26 48 .287 .751 Like Ogea, Loewer had a few shining moments in 1999. For the most part he was mediocre before a stress fracture in his elbow ended his season in June. He was dealt to the Padres over the winter and proceeded to break his leg, falling out of a stand while hunting. He will miss at least the first half of 2000 as a result. Anthony Shumaker, starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Phi 5.96 8 4 0 3 0 23 23 3 14 17 .261 .789 The Phillies did not have much pitching talent in the high minors in 1999. Shumaker, who had been a reliever for most of his professional career, began his first full season as a starter at AA Reading where he posted a 1.78 ERA in ten starts. He wasn't that good at AAA, however, having a 5.72 ERA. When Schilling went on the disabled list, Shumaker was brought up since he was the best available. Shumaker has good control although he did not exhibit it at the major league level. He will get a chance to be the fifth starter in 2000 with Schilling out. Mike Grace, reliever/starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 5.87 27 4 2 4 0 54 68 6 17 29 .312 .853 Prorated Phi 5.87 30 5 2 5 0 61 77 7 19 33 .312 .853 Actual Phi 7.69 27 5 1 4 0 55 80 5 30 28 .346 .936 Grace has never been anything special and his time in Philadelphia is finally over. The World Champion Yankees have signed him to a contract. Joe Grahe, reliever-starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Phi 3.86 13 5 1 4 0 33 40 1 17 16 .308 .808 He's still around? Grahe resurfaced in the majors for the first time since 1995. He did pretty good against righties, holding them to a .234 average. He's not suited for a specialist role but isn't good enough against lefties to merit being used for longer stints. Ken Ryan, long relief, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 4.86 53 0 3 4 0 70 71 6 43 50 .265 .773 Prorated Phi 4.86 12 0 1 1 0 16 16 1 10 11 .265 .773 Actual Phi 6.32 15 0 1 2 0 16 16 2 11 9 .267 .764 1999 was a big year for the Phillies in that they finally awakened to the fact that some of the players that they have had for years are not that good. Ryan spent the majority of his fourth season with the Phillies in AAA after a tough beginning of the season. He has since moved on to Kansas City. Steve Schrenk, long relief, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Phi 4.29 32 2 1 3 1 50 41 6 14 36 .223 .660 Schrenk finally made the majors after thirteen years in the minor leagues, ten with the White Sox organization. He was tough on righthanded hitters, limiting them to .194 batting average and a .515 OPS and will given a chance to stay in the majors in 2000. Amaury Telemaco, long relief, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 5.04 34 4 4 6 0 86 94 12 29 53 .279 .793 Prorated Ari 5.04 3 0 0 0 0 6 7 1 2 4 .279 .793 Actual Ari 7.50 5 0 1 0 0 6 7 2 6 2 .333 1.243 Prorated Phi 5.04 19 2 2 3 0 47 52 7 16 29 .279 .793 Actual Phi 5.55 44 0 3 0 0 47 45 8 20 41 .250 .763 Prorated Tot 5.04 21 3 3 4 0 54 59 8 18 33 .279 .793 Actual Tot 5.77 49 0 4 0 0 53 52 10 26 43 .259 .815 Any port in a storm. Telemaco was picked up from Arizona in an effort to find someone who could get people out in relief. He started fine but then got shelled. At 25, he has more of a chance to stick around than some of the other guys the Phils used in the pen. Cliff Politte, mopup, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 6.63 4 4 1 2 0 19 25 3 8 14 .321 .905 Prorated Phi 6.63 4 4 1 2 0 18 24 3 8 14 .321 .905 Actual Phi 7.13 13 0 1 0 0 18 19 2 15 15 .275 .854 The wily Politte has posted some nice minor league numbers since starting his career in 1996. He doesn't have tremendous stuff and that has made getting major league hitters out difficult. Philadelphia used him primarily in a mopup role but he will be pushed into a more productive role in 2000. Yorkis Perez, lefty specialist, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 3.63 70 0 4 3 1 72 68 6 37 66 .250 .725 Prorated Phi 3.63 30 0 2 1 0 31 30 3 16 29 .250 .725 Actual Phi 3.94 35 0 3 1 0 32 29 4 15 26 .244 .738 The veteran lefty had probably the best season of all the Phillies' relievers before a sprained ligament in his elbow ended his season in July. He refused a minor league assignment over the winter and is a free agent. If healthy, he will find someone to pitch for in 2000. Scott Aldred, lefty specialist, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 6.75 53 0 1 2 0 33 46 7 15 19 .329 .963 Prorated Tam 6.75 38 0 1 1 0 24 33 5 11 14 .329 .963 Actual Tam 5.18 37 0 3 2 0 24 26 1 14 22 .274 .764 Prorated Phi 6.75 47 0 1 2 0 29 41 6 13 17 .329 .963 Actual Phi 3.90 29 0 1 1 1 32 33 1 15 19 .277 .715 Prorated Tot 6.75 85 0 2 3 0 53 73 11 24 30 .329 .963 Actual Tot 4.45 66 0 4 3 1 57 59 2 29 41 .276 .737 The Phils acquired the much traveled Aldred from Tampa to help bolster the bullpen from the left side. Despite a .310 batting average and a .400 OBP against left handers, the desperate Phillies will use him in the same role in 2000. Billy Brewer, lefty specialist, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 5.65 30 0 1 2 0 29 31 5 21 27 .279 .882 Prorated Phi 5.65 26 0 1 2 0 25 27 4 18 24 .279 .882 Actual Phi 7.01 25 0 1 1 2 26 30 4 14 28 .294 .866 Brewer showed phenomenal improvement from his 1998 season with the Phillies. He reduced his ERA from 108.00 to a mere 7.01. Brewer is supposed to get lefties out, a job he failed to do in 1999. Lefties smacked him for a .325 average and a .932 OPS. He'll join Tyler Green and Ken Ryan in Kansas City as part of the Great Philadelphia Reclamation Project. Sean Fesh, minor league reliever, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 4.55 23 0 2 2 0 30 32 3 18 24 .278 .822 Fesh is a rarity in that he is a left-handed submariner. One would think that a team in desperate need of a lefty in the pen might use someone like Fesh, who is a good pitcher in addition to his oddball delivery. Steve Montgomery, setup man, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection LA 4.91 9 0 1 1 0 18 20 4 7 13 .278 .824 Prorated Phi 4.91 30 0 3 3 0 61 66 13 23 43 .278 .824 Actual Phi 3.34 53 0 1 5 3 65 54 10 31 55 .229 .708 Montgomery was slated as the closer at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre until Brantley went down. He made the most of his opportunity and will be part of the bullpen in 2000. Wayne Gomes, closer, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 3.63 70 0 6 4 3 97 95 8 46 81 .260 .717 Prorated Phi 3.63 57 0 5 3 2 78 77 6 37 66 .260 .717 Actual Phi 4.26 73 0 5 5 19 74 70 5 56 58 .255 .730 A couple of years ago, at a Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) gathering, a scout (not from the Phillies) named Gomes as the most talented player he had ever scouted. He added that Gomes was a better pitcher in college at Old Dominion than he was as a professional. I found that to be an intriguing comment, particularly when you think of all the "professional" tutelage Gomes has received in his career. But then you look at the Phillies farm system, with the dearth of pitching prospects, and wonder if maybe the instruction Philly pitchers get isn't all it is cracked up to be. Gomes was given the chance to close after arm troubles sidelined Jeff Brantley for the season. He suffered from his usual control problems and was largely ineffective. His control worsened as the season progressed. He walked over a man an inning after the All-Star break, causing the Phillies to lose confidence in him and to go out and acquire Mike Jackson. Jeff Brantley, closer, age 35Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 3.23 70 0 4 6 31 75 61 14 28 80 .219 .690 Prorated Phi 3.23 9 0 1 1 4 10 8 2 4 10 .219 .690 Actual Phi 5.19 10 0 1 2 5 9 5 0 8 11 .161 .519 Acquired from St. Louis during the 1998 offseason to be the closer for the Phils. Brantley suffered from a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder and missed the majority of the season. If healthy, he will be used as a setup man for new closer Mike Jackson. [TT: In the Dec 8/99 issue of Baseball Weekly, Brantley was quoted as saying "Never in my wildest imagination did I think they'd sign another closer. I'm not a setup man, and I'm not going to be one." Perhaps this was said in the heat of the moment and doesn't represent his feelings today, but if I was 35 and coming off a lost season, I hope I'd be grateful for any meaningful role on a team with playoff hopes.] OutlookThe Phillies believe they can make a run at the playoffs and made some strides in an effort to do so. They upped their payroll budget and used the extra funds to bring in starter Andy Ashby and closer Mike Jackson. They also brought in pitchers Chris Brock, Carlos Reyes, and Mark Brownson in an effort to provide some depth to the pitching staff that their minor-league system cannot offer. The one prospect the Phillies do have, Pat Burrell, will find his way into the lineup before the season is out. Primarily a first baseman, the Phils have been using him in left field in the minors as they feel Rico Brogna is entrenched at the right corner. Burrell will be a powerful presence in the lineup, and if Mike Lieberthal and Bobby Abreu can repeat their seasons of 1999, the lineup will be a potent one. In the end, however, the Phillies status as contenders will be determined by how well starting pitchers Curt Schilling and Paul Byrd fare. Schilling has the mindset that he will be ready for spring training. Schilling's focus and dedication are incomparable but they were not enough to overcome the shoulder problems he experienced in 1999. If mental power were all it took to be a major leaguer, Uri Geller would be in the Hall of Fame. Byrd also faces some mental issues. He needs to be able to pitch inside without concern or else he and the Phils will have a long season. The Phillies just aren't quite there yet as far as being considered a true contender but with some breaks they may get an opportunity to reach the playoffs in 2000. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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