Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
|
|
|
Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
|
|
1999 Post-Season Review -- Seattle Mariners By Gary Gillette This article takes a look at how the Seattle Mariners did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 870 859 Runs allowed 790 905 Run Margin 80 -46 Wins 88 79 Pythagorean wins 89 77 Placement 1st 3rd In the original plan, last season was going to be far better than it turned out. The Mariners were supposed to have recovered from the loss of Randy Johnson, and were supposed to use the boost from moving into their new state-of-the-art ballpark as a springboard to get back to the top of the AL West. Instead of good feelings, 1999 left a bad taste in everybody's mouth. The club fought with the county and the stadium authority about who would pay for the cost overruns from building Safeco Field, the players (at least the sluggers) fought with the club about the less hitter-friendly characteristics of their new home, and the season wound up being a total disappointment. Seattle wasn't in first place after the first couple weeks of the season and never really was in the hunt for a postseason berth. Then Ken Griffey, Jr. shocked the baseball world by stating he'd like to be traded to a team that plays (and has a spring training site) closer to his home in Orlando, Fla. That request threw a wicked curve to new General Manager Pat Gillick, who was hired in late October to put the franchise back on the right track. It wasn't going to be a peaceful offseason anyway, with Griffey and Alex Rodriguez set to be free agents at the end of the 2000 season. It turned out to be a nightmare for Gillick, who had to spend the winter trying to build a team that might or might not have Griffey in the lineup. In the end, Gillick had to send Griffey to Cincinnati for far less than they wanted because of Griffey's expressed desire to play only for the Cincinnati Reds. Whether the Mariners could have dealt Junior earlier, for more than they eventually got when their negotiating leverage had been reduced to just about zero, is a question that people will be pondering for some time to come. Key Position PlayersThe Mariners' offense finished sixth in the AL in runs last year. Griffey's absence leaves a huge hole in the middle of the lineup but, even without the superstar center fielder, there are still plenty of run producers left. Free agent acquisition John Olerud will be a big improvement at first base, although not nearly big enough to make up for losing Griffey. Shortstop Alex Rodriguez, powerful DH Edgar Martinez and a healthy Jay Buhner would combine with Olerud and Griffey to give Seattle a potent middle of the batting order. The Mariners still should score plenty of runs. Catcher Dan Wilson puts up solid numbers every year and the return of second baseman Carlos Guillen from reconstructive knee surgery should help as well. Mike Cameron will take Griffey's place in center. He's every bit the defensive player Griffey is, and can smack the ball hard at times, but he swings at too many bad pitches to be an effective hitter over the course of a season. Dan Wilson, c, age 30 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 463 117 25 1 12 53 64 5 29 1 70 3 2 .253 .301 .389 .690 54 Prorated Sea 414 104 22 0 10 47 57 4 25 0 62 2 1 .251 .298 .377 .674 46 Actual Sea 414 110 23 2 7 46 38 2 29 4 83 5 0 .266 .315 .382 .697 50 An unimpressive 1999 season leads to the question of whether he will ever duplicate or exceed his surprisingly good 1996 offensive performance (.285 with 18 homers, when those numbers were far more meaningful than they are now). If not, Wilson becomes just another good defensive catcher without much to add when he's holding a bat. He handles the catch-and-throw portion of the game effectively, owns a reputation as a good game-caller, and is agile. Wilson probably has some bounce-back left as a hitter. Tom Lampkin, c, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 83 18 4 0 2 10 10 2 9 2 11 1 1 .217 .309 .337 .646 9 Prorated Sea 198 43 9 0 4 23 23 4 21 4 26 2 2 .217 .305 .323 .628 20 Actual Sea 206 60 11 2 9 29 34 5 13 1 32 1 3 .291 .345 .495 .840 35 Asked to play far more than anyone in Seattle would have liked, Lampkin surprised many with his best season. He garnered nearly all of his at-bats against righties (179 of 206) and did quite well (.877 OPS). Of course, it's not worthwhile to bet the farm on a catcher who will be 36 this March but, as long as Lampkin keeps hitting those right-handers… David Segui, 1b, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 569 162 35 1 22 86 84 0 59 7 82 2 1 .285 .348 .466 .814 93 Prorated Sea 342 97 21 0 13 51 50 0 35 4 49 1 0 .284 .346 .459 .806 55 Actual Sea 345 101 22 3 9 43 39 1 32 4 43 1 2 .293 .352 .452 .804 53 Prorated Tor 93 26 5 0 3 14 13 0 9 1 13 0 0 .280 .340 .430 .770 14 Actual Tor 95 30 5 0 5 14 13 0 8 0 17 0 0 .316 .365 .526 .892 19 Prorated Tot 435 123 26 0 16 65 64 0 45 5 62 1 0 .283 .346 .453 .799 69 Actual Tot 440 131 27 3 14 57 52 1 40 4 60 1 2 .298 .355 .468 .823 72 Once again in 1999 Segui played well, albeit at a lower offensive level than most teams prefer from their first basemen (AL norm in 1999 was .851 OPS). He is an excellent glove man and one of the all-time leaders in fielding average at first base, but his range was subpar last year. David does what he does consistently; over the last five years he has batted .309, .286, .307, .305, and .298 with mid-range power. People inside baseball think of him as one of the game's best hustlers. After being dealt to Toronto on July 28, he suffered a broken bone in his right hand that sliced into his playing time; he's usually a good hitter late in the season. Segui was not at all productive last year against southpaws (.662 OPS), and he would have been far more valuable had he been able to maintain the power that he showed at the dish in 1997. Ryan Jackson, 1b, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 70 17 4 0 1 7 9 0 5 0 16 0 0 .243 .293 .343 .636 7 Prorated Sea 71 17 4 0 1 7 9 0 5 0 16 0 0 .239 .289 .338 .628 7 Actual Sea 68 16 3 0 0 4 10 1 6 0 19 3 3 .235 .299 .279 .578 5 Jackson wasn't ready for the major leagues when he was handed a job with the 1998 Marlins, and he's not ready for a job now. Why Florida viewed Jackson as a "prospect" while deeming Kevin Millar and Brian Daubach "too old" is a question for the ages; Jackson is actually two months older than Millar and five months senior to Daubach. Mike Blowers, 1b, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Sea 46 11 1 0 2 2 7 0 4 0 12 0 0 .239 .300 .391 .691 5 Blowers spent most of 1999 in Japan before joining Seattle late in the season. His K/W rates show he didn't learn much while he was abroad. Blowers is marginal, and always has been, but could be a helpful bench player for some clubs if he can play third base; he probably could still sock left-handed pitching in a platoon role. David Bell, 2b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 69 15 4 0 1 7 7 0 5 1 11 0 0 .217 .267 .319 .586 6 Prorated Sea 613 133 35 0 8 62 62 0 44 8 97 0 0 .217 .266 .313 .579 49 Actual Sea 597 160 31 2 21 92 78 2 58 0 90 7 4 .268 .331 .432 .763 89 When projected regular second baseman Carlos Guillen went down in April with a knee injury, Bell surprised the league. He showed pop that nobody had expected from a guy with ten homers in 429 at-bats the previous year and walked more than expected. He didn't do much against southpaws, and lost some of his power as the 1999 campaign progressed but, in the main, the Mariners were not unhappy with his bat. Defensively, Bell wasn't everything Lou Piniella would have hoped for. His range and fielding percentage were slightly below league norms. He did, however, stay healthy and hustle all year long. Should Bell be a regular in 2000, it will be at third base rather than second. He might be best utilized as a reserve, as his weaknesses are exposed too much when he plays everyday. Russ Davis, 3b, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 523 132 32 1 21 70 79 4 32 2 128 5 3 .252 .297 .438 .735 66 Prorated Sea 439 110 26 0 17 58 66 3 26 1 107 4 2 .251 .294 .426 .720 54 Actual Sea 432 106 17 1 21 55 59 5 32 1 111 3 3 .245 .304 .435 .739 54 Davis got his last chance with Seattle in 1999 and failed in it. He has genuine power, a genuinely strong but inaccurate arm, and a genuine hole in his swing big enough to drive a Peterbilt through. The former Yankees' hopeful also showed very inadequate range for the position. What he does well is hit left-handed pitching (.298 BA, .587 SA in 1999, consistent with his previous pattern). To this end, he could have stuck around, possibly as a platoon player with David Bell, but the Mariners weren't interested. Charles Gipson, 3b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 67 14 3 0 0 9 3 2 5 0 11 3 2 .209 .284 .254 .538 5 Prorated Sea 79 16 3 0 0 10 3 2 5 0 13 3 2 .203 .267 .241 .508 5 Actual Sea 80 18 5 2 0 16 9 1 6 0 13 3 4 .225 .287 .338 .625 7 The speedy outfielder/infielder spent 1999 on the Seattle-Tacoma shuttle, which is probably where he'll be this year as well. He doesn't hit much but is a fast runner, though not yet a good base stealer. Lou Piniella did use him as a spare second baseman and shortstop as well as at all three positions in the outfield, therefore increasing his value. He displayed plus range at the hot corner. Alex Rodriguez, ss, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 650 207 41 5 36 121 114 8 43 1 106 35 9 .318 .366 .563 .929 134 Prorated Sea 525 167 33 4 29 97 92 6 34 0 85 28 7 .318 .364 .562 .926 107 Actual Sea 502 143 25 0 42 110 111 5 56 2 109 21 7 .285 .357 .586 .943 105 Rodriguez enjoyed another outstanding season despite a serious knee injury that kept him on the shelf for more than a month. He finished tied for fifth in the league in homers while playing in just 129 games. Once again he showed decent range (especially up the middle), committed just 14 errors, and showed himself adept at turning the double play. However, all was not well in Seattle. There was talk that A-Rod would be dealt if the club felt it could not afford a big-money offer for his future services. As a dull and fruitless summer in Seattle dragged on, however, center fielder Ken Griffey made it known that he wanted to leave, and this is ultimately what happened. Seattle is now Rodriguez' town; he can have it all now if he wants to stay. Rafael Bournigal, ss, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 68 16 4 0 0 8 5 1 4 0 5 1 0 .235 .288 .294 .582 6 Prorated Sea 97 23 5 0 0 11 7 1 5 0 7 1 0 .237 .282 .289 .570 8 Actual Sea 95 26 5 0 2 16 14 0 7 0 6 0 0 .274 .317 .389 .707 11 A garden-variety utility player who showed more stick than expected in 1999, Bournigal has some value for a team that can afford a light-hitting spare infielder, though his thirtysomething glove ain't what it used to be. Domingo Cedeno, ss, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Oak 70 17 4 0 0 8 7 0 4 0 15 1 1 .243 .284 .300 .584 6 Prorated Phi 67 16 3 0 0 7 6 0 3 0 14 0 0 .239 .271 .284 .555 5 Actual Phi 66 10 4 0 1 5 5 0 5 0 22 0 1 .152 .211 .258 .469 3 Prorated Sea 44 10 2 0 0 5 4 0 2 0 9 0 0 .227 .261 .273 .534 3 Actual Sea 42 9 2 0 2 4 8 1 5 0 9 1 1 .214 .313 .405 .717 5 Prorated Tot 112 27 6 0 0 12 11 0 6 0 24 1 1 .241 .280 .295 .574 9 Actual Tot 108 19 6 0 3 9 13 1 10 0 31 1 2 .176 .252 .315 .567 8 "Mingy" has plenty of talent -- enough, some say, to have been a starting shortstop in the major leagues for several years. This didn't happen, and he's now become a roving spare part. Some say that Cedeno's failures have come because he's not the most focused of individuals but, if he had been a bit more consistent with the bat when he had his chances, he'd likely have been a regular. He's still got the leather to play short, though his range isn't impressive. Carlos Guillen, ss, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 631 152 24 3 15 88 63 5 43 1 107 7 7 .241 .292 .360 .652 7 Prorated Sea 19 4 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 3 0 0 .211 .250 .211 .461 1 Actual Sea 19 3 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 0 6 0 0 .158 .200 .316 .516 1 Handed the M's second base job in spring training '99, Guillen tore up his left knee on April 12 while trying to evade a rundown and missed the rest of the season. He is likely to return healthy this spring and reclaim his spot at second. Trained as a shortstop, Guillen comes with a reputation as a spectacular glove man and should be one of the game's best at his position if his knee injury doesn't hurt his mobility. His offensive role is somewhat less clear. He will hit for good line-drive power if healthy, but Guillen isn't expected to contribute a high batting average, steal many bases, or draw a lot of walks. This makes him a lower-order hitter, which might be the best way to keep the pressure off during what should be an interesting first season in 2000. Brian Hunter, lf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Det 639 165 30 5 5 89 41 2 43 0 107 51 14 .258 .306 .344 .650 71 Prorated Det 57 14 2 0 0 7 3 0 3 0 9 4 1 .246 .283 .281 .564 5 Actual Det 55 13 2 1 0 8 0 1 5 0 11 0 3 .236 .311 .309 .621 5 Prorated Sea 486 125 22 3 3 67 31 1 32 0 81 38 10 .257 .303 .333 .637 52 Actual Sea 484 112 11 5 4 71 34 1 32 0 80 44 5 .231 .277 .300 .576 46 Prorated Tot 543 140 25 4 4 75 34 1 36 0 91 43 11 .258 .304 .341 .645 59 Actual Tot 539 125 13 6 4 79 34 2 37 0 91 44 8 .232 .280 .301 .581 50 The good news is that Hunter led the AL with 44 stolen bases. The bad news is everything else. Compiling almost laughable on-base and slugging averages (the worst for a full-time player in either league), Hunter was nearly valueless. His hitting, which looked to have improved in 1997, has declined sharply since, and 1999 was his poorest season by far. Despite being a right-handed batter, he's nothing special against lefties, making his platoon value very low. Hunter does have good defensive skills, including good range and sure hands. Because of his glove work -- after all, he is a center fielder playing left field -- and his undeniable speed, he would be a valuable fifth outfielder. Unfortunately, he makes too much money for that (having won an arbitration case this winter), and will in 2000 be yet another poor Seattle Mariners excuse for a left fielder. Ken Griffey, cf, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 583 167 30 2 52 116 135 8 68 14 107 15 3 .286 .365 .612 .978 132 Prorated Sea 618 177 31 2 55 123 143 8 72 14 113 15 3 .286 .365 .610 .975 139 Actual Sea 606 173 26 3 48 123 134 7 91 17 108 24 7 .285 .384 .576 .960 139 Finally gone to Cincinnati, where he won't complain about the ballpark dimensions. He could easily hit 55-65 homers this season, though there's no guarantee that he won't have an adjustment period to NL pitching. Griffey's '99 season was outstanding again, of course, although he didn't keep up with the league-wide explosion of offense. His slugging was off 35 points from 1998 and is off 70 points from his league-leading 1998 mark. The big area of concern came against southpaws, against whom he batted a sad .229, albeit with some power. In addition, while Griffey has never done his best work in September, his 1999 final two months were especially bad (.212 BA in September-October, .844 and .849 OPS marks in August and September, respectively). Jay Buhner, rf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 507 119 19 1 34 84 100 5 83 2 144 0 0 .235 .346 .477 .823 86 Prorated Sea 289 68 10 0 19 48 57 2 47 1 82 0 0 .235 .344 .467 .811 48 Actual Sea 266 59 11 0 14 37 38 5 69 0 100 0 0 .222 .388 .421 .809 49 Whether Buhner can once again be a good hitter depends entirely on his health. Last season, he was about as bad as possible; nobody strikes out 100 times in 266 at-bats unless something is seriously wrong, and Buhner had undergone "Tommy John" elbow surgery in 1998. He was also troubled in '99 by a bad hamstring, which reduced his range in right field to statuesque proportions. When he returned from the injury, Buhner was helpless for the last three months. The Mariners are counting on him this year to provide substantial power. Ken Griffey's departure will have a strong ripple effect on the rest of the lineup but, if Buhner is batting behind Edgar Martinez and A-Rod, he still ought to see plenty of RBI opportunities. He can still hit left-handers, that much is certain (eight home runs in 64 at-bats, 1.109 OPS in 1999). John Mabry, rf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 445 119 26 0 9 51 53 2 37 9 84 0 1 .267 .325 .387 .712 54 Prorated Sea 259 69 15 0 5 29 30 1 21 5 48 0 0 .266 .323 .382 .705 31 Actual Sea 262 64 14 0 9 34 33 0 20 1 60 2 1 .244 .297 .401 .698 30 The former St. Louis right fielder/first baseman had a very disappointing season in 1999. He saw a little time at DH, some time in right field, and played a little first base, but he didn't hit anywhere. Usually good against right-handers, he hasn't done much against them lately. There are plenty of guys who can do what he does for about $800,000 less annually and, with Mabry coming off two poor years, he is close to slipping out of the league. Raul Ibanez, rf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 103 25 6 1 3 14 14 0 6 0 18 1 1 .243 .282 .408 .690 11 Prorated Sea 212 51 12 2 6 28 28 0 12 0 37 2 2 .241 .279 .401 .680 23 Actual Sea 209 54 7 0 9 23 27 0 17 1 32 5 1 .258 .313 .421 .734 28 Now that the Mariners have finally given Ibanez a chance to play, we can see that he is a fair hitter with a little punch who can't play defense, run, or get on-base that often. This is something that everyone knew anyway, but at least now he's on the pension plan. Matt Mieske, lf, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 68 16 4 0 2 9 8 1 5 0 14 0 0 .235 .293 .382 .676 7 Prorated Sea 38 9 2 0 1 5 4 0 2 0 8 0 0 .237 .275 .368 .643 3 Actual Sea 41 15 0 0 4 11 7 0 2 1 9 0 0 .366 .395 .659 1.054 11 Prorated Hou 106 25 6 0 3 14 12 1 7 0 22 0 0 .236 .287 .377 .664 11 Actual Hou 109 31 5 0 5 13 22 0 6 1 22 0 0 .284 .316 .468 .784 15 Prorated Tot 145 34 8 0 4 19 17 2 10 0 30 0 0 .234 .289 .372 .662 15 Actual Tot 150 46 5 0 9 24 29 0 8 2 31 0 0 .307 .338 .520 .858 25 When used in the right situation -- that is, against left-handed fastball pitchers -- Mieske is a fine offensive player; he has a good stroke with power. He's only adequate defensively, doesn't run, and is nearly helpless facing righties but, if there's room on your bench… Houston was glad to pick him up in late June for the pennant race last year; there are many far worse spare outfielders playing in the majors. Edgar Martinez, dh, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 559 172 43 1 28 96 102 7 104 8 88 1 1 .308 .418 .538 .956 131 Prorated Sea 502 154 38 0 25 86 91 6 93 7 79 0 0 .307 .417 .532 .949 116 Actual Sea 502 169 35 1 24 86 86 6 97 6 99 7 2 .337 .447 .554 1.001 131 Martinez continues to excel at his game. He consistently hits for average, smacks out doubles and homers, and takes walks. What more could you want from a DH? He showed a few signs of slowing down in 1999, but still posted his best average in five years and finished fourth in the AL in on-base plus slugging. One way to tell that someone's a good hitter is if they continue to ratchet up their performance as league levels get higher. Martinez does this. While he isn't the dominating hitter he was four or five seasons ago, he is still the most productive DH in the game and would be a very difficult man to replace. Had he gotten a chance four or five years earlier than he did (Edgar didn't become a starter until age 27), he might be considered a future Hall of Famer. Butch Huskey, dh/lf/rf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 182 50 10 0 9 23 31 0 12 2 31 3 2 .275 .315 .478 .793 25 Prorated Sea 269 74 14 0 13 34 45 0 17 2 45 4 2 .275 .314 .472 .786 37 Actual Sea 262 76 9 0 15 44 49 0 27 0 45 3 1 .290 .353 .496 .849 48 Prorated Bos 121 33 6 0 5 15 20 0 7 1 20 1 1 .273 .310 .446 .756 15 Actual Bos 124 33 6 0 7 18 28 0 7 1 20 0 0 .266 .305 .484 .789 16 Prorated Tot 390 107 21 0 19 49 66 0 25 4 66 6 4 .274 .314 .474 .788 53 Actual Tot 386 109 15 0 22 62 77 0 34 1 65 3 1 .282 .338 .492 .830 63 If there were no right-handed breaking-ball pitchers in baseball, Butch Huskey would be headed for the Hall of Fame. He's a strong guy with a big swing that produces long line-drive home runs. Unfortunately, Huskey once again proved in 1999 that he's not going to Cooperstown except on a tour bus. He just can't hit righties and doesn't get on base enough to be a valuable middle-order hitter. Huskey's lack of speed and inadequate defense at all positions help to spell "DH" even for people who don't know how to read. [TT: Statistically, there's quite a bit of evidence to suggest that Huskey can hold his own at the corner outfield positions. Perhaps this is a case where the numbers are lying, because several teams have looked at him and relegated him to a reserve role despite his reasonably potent bat. In 2000, he'll be with the Twins, who need a power hitter very badly, so maybe we'll finally get a chance to see him play every day, and maybe we'll learn more about his defense in the process.] Key PitchersFreddy Garcia, the 22-year-old acquired from Houston for Randy Johnson, pitched way beyond expectations last year and showed flashes of becoming a staff ace in the near future. He wound up anchoring a starting staff that was better than league average by a tenth of a run. On the left side, Jamie Moyer continued to frustrate his critics with another solid year last year. He's now 36 years old, but still looks to be a productive pitcher who eats a lot of innings. The big off-season addition to the starting staff was Aaron Sele, who became a big winner in Texas the last two years. The downside to Sele was that the Rangers scored a bunch of runs for him (making his record look better than it might have been otherwise) and his health. The Orioles backed off a four-year contract because of concern about his workload the past few seasons. The Mariners added right-hander Brett Tomko in the Griffey trade. The Reds were disappointed in Tomko's attitude in 1999, but were cautiously optimistic after Tomko dedicated himself to a vigorous off-season workout program. The bullpen should be improved, but what relief corps wouldn't be improved over last year's version? The Mariners were active in the off-season, adding several relievers. Seattle expects former Japanese reliever Kazuhiro Sasaki to at least contend for the closer's role, and the team believes that Arthur Rhodes will continue be a quality setup pitcher. Jose Mesa is still around and could retain the top spot in the pen. Freddy Garcia, starter, age 22 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 5.21 32 32 10 12 0 185 193 32 99 155 .270 .825 Prorated Sea 5.21 34 34 11 13 0 197 206 34 106 165 .270 .825 Actual Sea 4.07 33 33 17 8 0 201 205 18 90 170 .263 .743 What a season! What a rookie! Freddy Garcia, who had no pressure and no expectations to live up to save for being the big prize in a trade for Randy Johnson, turned in an outstanding campaign for Seattle. His stuff is unquestionably good, and his control will improve. Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Garcia is that, after being around the league twice, he made adjustments and was dominating in August and September, going 7-2 in the last two months. In August, he struck out 46 and walked 11 in 40 innings. Jamie Moyer, starter, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 3.94 32 32 12 10 0 201 205 22 39 121 .265 .721 Prorated Sea 3.94 36 36 14 11 0 228 233 25 44 137 .265 .721 Actual Sea 3.87 32 32 14 8 0 228 235 23 48 137 .267 .705 Once again, Moyer was the glue that held together the Mariners' staff. What more could you ask from a veteran finesse pitcher other than that he keep the ball in the strike zone, move the ball around, and change speeds? He does this, takes the ball every time out, and wins. What would he do if he were with a truly good team? Starting out very slowly last year, Moyer posted a 5.05 ERA before the All-Star break, then rebounded to a 2.30 ERA afterward. Moyer had become a very fine pitcher on artificial surfaces, so it might be a challenge for him to adjust to the grass in Safeco Field. On the other hand, Moyer does give up a fair number of home runs, so the new park's bigger dimensions should be helpful. It's too early to tell, but the 1999 second-half numbers look encouraging. John Halama, starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 4.98 74 4 6 8 1 121 138 14 35 80 .288 .791 Prorated Sea 4.98 108 6 9 12 1 176 201 20 51 116 .288 .791 Actual Sea 4.22 38 24 11 10 0 179 193 20 56 105 .282 .778 The unassuming left-hander spent the first two months of the season in the Mariners' bullpen, but finally won a chance at a starting job and, for most of the summer, was just fine. In June, his first month as a starter, Halama made six appearances and was 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA. The league caught up with him, however; he was 0-5 in September, though his 4.71 ERA wasn't all that terrible. Halama is going to have to continually make adjustments, but has the ability to do so. He doesn't throw particularly hard, but he does have good command, an outstanding change-up, and possibly the best pickoff move in the league. Jeff Fassero, starter, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 4.13 32 32 12 12 0 214 212 27 61 166 .260 .738 Prorated Sea 4.13 24 24 9 9 0 160 158 20 46 124 .260 .738 Actual Sea 7.38 30 24 4 14 0 139 188 34 73 101 .321 .969 Prorated Tex 4.13 3 3 1 1 0 20 19 2 6 15 .260 .738 Actual Tex 5.71 7 3 1 0 0 17 20 1 10 13 .286 .770 Prorated Tot 4.13 27 27 10 10 0 179 178 23 51 139 .260 .738 Actual Tot 7.20 37 27 5 14 0 156 208 35 83 114 .318 .948 All year long, Fassero insisted that he wasn't injured. However, he had undergone elbow surgery in January 1999, and the poor control he showed this past season indicates that the elbow had not fully healed when the season started. Fassero still throws hard enough to win, but he wasn't good at any time during the '99 campaign; his best monthly ERA was 6.87. The 35 homers he allowed were the second-most by any pitcher in the AL, despite his throwing just 156 innings. A fully-healed arm and some veteran-level adjustments should make Fassero's 2000 season a lot better than his 1999. How much better is an open question, one that his new team, the Red Sox, are going to find out. Gil Meche, starter, age 20Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Sea 4.73 16 15 8 4 0 86 73 9 57 47 .237 .753 The Mariners' first pick in the 1996 draft was promoted to the big-time in mid-July. To Lou Piniella's credit, he left Meche in the rotation even after some early struggles and, in September, the rookie was 4-0 with a 3.19 ERA. While Meche did struggle with the base on balls after showing good control in the minors, he at least he has a substantial base of talent to start from. Ken Cloude, swing man, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 6.00 4 4 1 2 0 21 24 4 9 16 .286 .882 Prorated Sea 6.00 15 15 4 8 0 79 91 15 34 60 .286 .882 Actual Sea 7.96 31 6 4 4 1 72 106 10 46 35 .346 .977 Cloude has pitched extremely well in the minors, but has not been able to find himself in the big leagues; his ERA has rocketed up from 5.12 in 1997 to 6.37 in 1998 and 7.96 last year. While the Mariners need help, Cloude has to be better than he was, otherwise he's part of the problem and not part of the solution. When given a chance in May, he couldn't keep himself in the rotation and, when sent to the bullpen, didn't know how to adjust. Cloude has been a starter his entire pro career. Frank Rodriguez, swing man, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Min 4.63 4 4 1 1 0 23 26 2 9 15 .283 .784 Prorated Sea 4.63 13 13 3 3 0 75 84 6 29 48 .283 .784 Actual Sea 5.65 28 5 2 4 3 73 94 11 30 47 .314 .875 The Twins sent him down in May, and he pitched a no-hitter at Salt Lake City on May 10. Two weeks later, he was designated for assignment and the Mariners grabbed him. Rodriguez wasn't helpful in Seattle and, even though his ERAs were good in August and September, he didn't pitch well in those months either, allowing far more hits than he had innings pitched. Frank's good right arm will continue to earn him chances, but a 5.39 career ERA will continue to delight hitters unless he figures out how to pitch. Paul Abbott, swing man, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 4.42 3 3 1 1 0 18 18 3 6 19 .261 .759 Prorated Sea 4.42 11 11 4 4 0 70 69 11 23 73 .261 .759 Actual Sea 3.10 25 7 6 2 0 73 50 9 32 68 .193 .618 The veteran righty was surprisingly effective, though he missed some time in September with a groin problem. He did not join the team until July, as he was getting back on his game after 1998 knee surgery. Given his past history, and his somewhat shockingly fine season, the Mariners would be wise to limit him to middle relief and the occasional start until he proves that he's not just a flash in the proverbial pan. Steve Sinclair, middle reliever, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 3.63 25 0 1 1 0 17 17 1 8 14 .258 .697 Prorated Tor 3.63 9 0 0 0 0 6 6 0 3 5 .258 .697 Actual Tor 12.71 3 0 0 0 0 6 7 4 4 3 .304 1.342 Prorated Sea 3.63 22 0 1 1 0 15 15 1 7 13 .258 .697 Actual Sea 3.95 18 0 0 1 0 14 15 1 10 15 .268 .817 Prorated Tot 3.63 32 0 1 1 0 22 22 1 10 18 .258 .697 Actual Tot 6.52 21 0 0 1 0 19 22 5 14 18 .278 .970 The Mariners have been searching for reliable lefty relief help for years. Sinclair, who came over from Toronto in the July 28 David Segui trade, is just okay. He won't be anything more than a situational guy and, given Lou Piniella's ways with relievers, Sinclair might not get many chances to fail. He held portsiders to a .226 BA in '99, but with a .415 OBA, and he was pounded by starboarders (.313 BA, .688 SA). Mac Suzuki, middle reliever, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 6.83 30 0 3 4 0 57 67 11 37 39 .295 .912 Prorated Sea 6.83 23 0 2 3 0 43 51 8 28 30 .295 .912 Actual Sea 9.43 16 4 0 2 0 42 47 7 34 32 .283 .917 Prorated KC 6.83 34 0 3 4 0 64 75 12 42 44 .295 .912 Actual KC 5.16 22 9 2 3 0 68 77 9 30 36 .287 .813 Prorated Tot 6.83 57 0 6 8 0 107 127 21 70 74 .295 .912 Actual Tot 6.79 38 13 2 5 0 110 124 16 64 68 .286 .854 The highly touted Suzuki hasn't progressed an inch since joining the Seattle organization. He doesn't walk as many as he once did, but now all of those guys who used to take walks are getting base hits instead. The Mariners gave up on him last summer, and he joined the Royals with hope for a fresh start. In Kansas City, he got in a few starts, made a few relief appearances, and impressed with his velocity if not with his command. The Royals have all the time in the world to try to make a pitcher out of him, but it's clear that Suzuki has a long way to go. Brett Hinchliffe, middle reliever, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 5.63 27 27 8 11 0 155 173 29 70 82 .278 .776 Prorated Sea 5.63 6 6 2 2 0 34 38 6 15 18 .278 .776 Actual Sea 8.80 11 4 0 4 0 31 41 10 21 14 .323 1.072 Hinchliffe was awful in 1999, struggling to get his curve over the plate and not getting enough of a chance to find his sea legs. Shoulder problems also dogged him early in the year. He has plenty of skill, but the Mariners have run out of patience. He was designated for assignment in January. Todd Williams, middle reliever, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Sea 4.66 13 0 0 0 0 10 11 1 7 7 .289 .834 The well-traveled Williams got a few innings with the Mariners without distinguishing himself. His stuff is nothing special. Jose Paniagua, setup reliever, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 5.14 53 0 3 4 0 70 84 9 30 41 .301 .853 Prorated Sea 5.14 58 0 3 4 0 77 92 10 33 45 .301 .853 Actual Sea 4.06 59 0 6 11 3 78 75 5 52 74 .264 .757 Paniagua was a savior for Seattle in 1999. The middle relief role suited him very well, and Paniagua finally got an extended chance to show his stuff. He did have some problems with the base on balls, and he probably will for most of his career, but Paniagua is an often overpowering pitcher whose role is probably going to expand. At his age and with his stuff, if he can improve with experience, he could quickly become a terrific setup pitcher. Tom Davey, setup reliever, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 6.24 40 0 2 3 0 49 63 6 35 41 .317 .918 Prorated Tor 6.24 33 0 2 2 0 40 52 5 29 34 .317 .918 Actual Tor 4.70 29 0 1 1 1 44 40 5 26 42 .241 .760 Prorated Sea 6.24 17 0 1 1 0 20 26 3 15 17 .317 .918 Actual Sea 4.71 16 0 1 0 0 21 22 0 14 17 .268 .741 Prorated Tot 6.24 50 0 2 4 0 61 78 7 43 51 .317 .918 Actual Tot 4.71 45 0 2 1 1 65 62 5 40 59 .250 .754 Davey, along with Steve Sinclair, came over from the Jays in exchange for David Segui. The right-hander throws an explosive fastball, but he hasn't gotten the ball over the plate enough to be reliable. He had the same types of problems with control after the trade, but the Mariners are happy to have such a project on their hands. The Mariners would like Davey to eventually be their closer, and that might eventually happen. However, he was a starter until 1998, when he had 16 saves in the minors, and still needs to work on every part of his game. Jose Mesa, closer, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 3.80 70 0 5 3 9 73 74 8 28 56 .264 .732 Prorated Sea 3.80 72 0 5 3 9 76 76 8 29 58 .264 .732 Actual Sea 4.98 68 0 3 6 33 69 84 11 40 42 .305 .836 "Senor Smoke" (or "Senor Choke," as Cleveland fans know him) did his best in 1999, which wasn't really good enough. He was terrible in the early part of the season, but did pitch far better as the year went on. Mesa still can throw hard, but has lost his confidence and command just as quickly as he put it together in the mid-90s. The best that can be said is that he's a stop-gap solution. OutlookNow that Ken Griffey, Jr. is gone, it's hard to think of the Mariners as contenders, even in the four-team AL West. Even if he had stuck around for one more year, it's unlikely the club could have captured the pennant. The pitching simply isn't there to justify ranking the M's ahead of Oakland or Texas. Griffey's departure will makes it that much harder for a team that will frequently be required to outscore its opponents in order to win. However, stranger things have happened in baseball. The Athletics and Rangers are certainly not mortal locks to win anything. Oakland could come back to earth after a surprising 1999 campaign, and the Rangers could wind up missing Juan Gonzalez more than they thought they would. Seattle does have a potent offense and their hitters could adjust to their new home ballpark better than they did in the second half of last season. Or maybe the spacious new park could give otherwise mediocre pitchers the boost that they need to become winners -- it's happened in many other places. It's still unclear just how much of an impact Safeco Field will have on the Mariners. In the second half of the season (the new ballpark opened just after the '99 All-Star break) Seattle went from hitting 10 points better than its opponents at home in 2½ years (from 1997 through the first half of '99) to hitting 10 points worse. Nobody can make a proper evaluation of a ballpark after only 42 games, but the Mariners and their visitors combined to hit only .245 at Safeco compared to .270 in Seattle's road games. The Mariners saw a 29-point drop in their on-base and a 77-point drop in their slugging after the move last year, while their pitchers saw a 1.64-run improvement in their ERA. Assuming that pattern holds up, tailoring the team to that effect shouldn't be too difficult. Then again, putting a championship team together when you already have Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, and Edgar Martinez in the lineup shouldn't be too difficult, but Seattle's previous administration wasn't up to that task. Perhaps Pat Gillick and company will have more success. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
Inc. All rights reserved. |
 |
