Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- San Francisco Giants By Sherri Nichols This article takes a look at how the San Francisco Giants did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 758 872 Runs allowed 736 831 Run margin 22 41 Wins 85 86 Pythagorean Wins 85 85 Placement 2nd 2nd Despite losing their best offensive player for a couple of months, the Giants matched their projected run margin and win total very closely. The raw numbers were higher, but the raw numbers were higher for everybody. The Giants offense was projected to be near the top, and it finished 3rd in the league, while the Giants pitching staff was projected to be middle of the pack, and that's where it was. Had Bonds and closer Robb Nen been healthy, the Giants might have been able to improve on their projections; they're hoping that's all it takes for 2000. Key Position PlayersOne reason the Giants were able to stay within sight of a pennant race last year even without Barry Bonds is that there weren't any offensive black holes in the lineup. Sure, there were some positions where you'd like to see some improvement, like the infield corners, but no place where the life gets sucked out of rallies. Catcher might turn out to be one of those black hole positions next year, but there's reason to believe that the combination of Mirabelli and Estalella can avoid that. The bench is another question mark; the Giants let most of their veteran bench players go, opting to go with younger players from within the organization. If you've got a veteran lineup, as the Giants do, you're probably better off with a younger bench -- less likely to get injured. Brent Mayne, c, age 31 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 363 96 19 0 5 34 34 3 37 3 57 1 1 .264 .335 .358 .693 44 Prorated SF 331 87 17 0 4 31 31 2 33 2 52 0 0 .263 .332 .350 .682 38 Actual SF 322 97 32 0 2 39 39 5 43 5 65 2 2 .301 .389 .419 .808 51 This was only the second season in Mayne's career in which he appeared in over 100 games, and he made the most of it. In his two seasons in San Francisco, Mayne showed more patience at the plate, drawing more walks than in the past. Unfortunately for San Francisco, Mayne and his newfound patience are now property of the Colorado Rockies. Doug Mirabelli, c, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 64 12 3 0 1 7 8 1 10 1 12 0 0 .188 .307 .281 .588 6 Prorated SF 83 15 3 0 1 9 10 1 13 1 15 0 0 .181 .299 .253 .552 7 Actual SF 87 22 6 0 1 10 10 1 9 1 25 0 0 .253 .327 .356 .683 11 Mirabelli and newly acquired backstop Bobby Estalella are the current candidates to split the catching duties in PacBell Park in 2000, unless the Giants trade for a veteran catcher. Mirabelli is a minor league veteran who saw the most major league action of his career last season, which is still too little to make much of an evaluation. His AAA numbers last year were pretty good, but he's been in AAA a long time. Estalella is four years younger than Mirabelli with slightly more major league experience, and is coming off shoulder surgery. On the farm, the best catching prospects are Giuseppe Chiaramonte and Sammy Serrano, neither of whom are expected to be ready for 2000. Scott Servais, c, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 187 43 9 0 3 17 20 3 13 3 29 0 0 .230 .289 .326 .615 17 Prorated SF 196 45 9 0 3 17 21 3 13 3 30 0 0 .230 .286 .321 .608 17 Actual SF 198 54 10 0 5 21 21 3 13 2 31 0 0 .273 .327 .399 .726 24 Servais had several injuries throughout the season that limited his playing time. In the time he did play, he was relatively effective as a backup catcher, a role he will likely fill in Colorado next season. What is it about San Francisco catchers that attracts Colorado? First, Kirt Manwaring, then Brent Mayne and Scott Servais, were all signed by Colorado. JT Snow, 1b, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 539 134 32 1 20 74 89 1 72 7 104 2 3 .249 .334 .423 .757 77 Prorated SF 580 144 34 1 21 79 95 1 77 7 112 2 3 .248 .334 .419 .753 82 Actual SF 570 156 25 2 24 93 98 5 86 7 121 0 4 .274 .370 .451 .821 96 Snow gave up switch hitting last season, since it wasn't helping him hit lefties any better. Batting solely from the left side, he did slightly better against left-handed pitching than he had done as a switch hitter, but he still struggles against lefties. Offensively, Snow is a below average first baseman, even in a season where he exceeded expectations. Defensively, he's won five Gold Gloves, and the Giants love his defense. Is his defense enough to overcome his offensive shortcomings? I doubt it, especially as the Giants move to PacBell Park with its skimpy foul territory and relatively short right field. Felipe Crespo hit the ball well down in AAA last season, is out of options, and can play all over the diamond, so will likely share the backup duties with Russ Davis. Damon Minor put up good numbers in Shreveport last year, and will likely play in Fresno this year. Jeff Kent, 2b, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 560 149 38 2 28 89 115 9 47 4 112 9 4 .266 .327 .491 .819 89 Prorated SF 522 139 35 1 26 83 107 8 43 3 104 8 3 .266 .326 .487 .813 82 Actual SF 511 148 40 2 23 86 101 5 61 3 112 13 6 .290 .366 .511 .877 97 In 1998, Jeff Kent played with a sore second toe on his right foot. In 1999, he played with a sore second toe on his left foot. Fortunately, Jeff King has no more second toes left to injure. Despite his injuries, Kent has been one of the more productive second basemen in the league and a key part of the Giant offense, one that they need to keep in the lineup. You have to figure that his nagging little injury problems aren't going to suddenly go away as he gets older, especially playing a position like second base. Bill Mueller, the Giants' third baseman, has played second base, and Jeff Kent has played third base. Would the Giants be much worse off defensively if they switched the two? Mueller's offense is about average for a second baseman, but weak for a third baseman, and there's a good chance that Kent could stay a little healthier away from the pivot. Ramon Martinez, 2b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 68 17 3 0 1 8 7 0 5 0 8 0 0 .250 .297 .338 .636 7 Prorated SF 149 37 6 0 2 17 15 0 11 0 17 0 0 .248 .296 .329 .625 14 Actual SF 144 38 6 0 5 21 19 0 14 0 17 1 2 .264 .327 .410 .737 19 These aren't bad numbers for a backup second baseman, but hardly begin to replace Jeff Kent. Martinez will probably back up both middle infield positions this season, while Wilson Delgado and Jay Canizaro attempt to wrest that job away from him. Rich Aurilia, ss, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 547 143 33 2 12 71 65 2 44 3 78 5 4 .261 .317 .395 .711 70 Prorated SF 556 145 33 2 12 72 66 2 44 3 79 5 4 .261 .315 .392 .707 70 Actual SF 558 157 23 1 22 68 80 5 43 3 71 2 3 .281 .336 .444 .780 80 I like shortstops who hit 22 home runs. Managers are usually less enthralled with shortstops who commit 28 errors. But that's only about 8 more than the average shortstop made in the same number of chances. In a nutshell, compared to the average NL shortstop, Aurilia gave the team average range and about a dozen more homers to compensate for those eight extra errors. Charlie Hayes, 3b, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 68 17 2 0 2 7 10 0 7 0 12 0 0 .250 .320 .368 .688 8 Prorated SF 272 68 8 0 8 28 40 0 28 0 48 0 0 .250 .320 .368 .688 31 Actual SF 264 54 9 1 6 33 48 1 33 0 41 3 1 .205 .292 .314 .607 25 Hayes was brought in with the hope that he could provide more punch at third base and off the bench than Bill Mueller could, but never really came through in San Francisco. Bill Mueller, 3b, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 592 168 31 1 9 91 60 2 73 1 86 3 3 .284 .361 .385 .746 85 Prorated SF 429 121 22 0 6 66 43 1 52 0 62 2 2 .282 .357 .375 .733 59 Actual SF 414 120 24 0 2 61 36 3 65 1 52 4 2 .290 .388 .362 .751 62 Bill Mueller is a pretty steady player; you know what you're likely to get from him. He'll hit around .300, he'll have a pretty good OBP, but he will not hit for power. Players often add more home runs as they get older, but Mueller is never going to be a home run hitter. As a second baseman, Mueller would look pretty reasonable, and the Giants would probably be satisfied with him. As a third baseman, he's below average, and the Giants will always be looking for another answer. The latest attempt at another answer is Russ Davis, who's not too likely to put Mueller out of a job, but may end up as half a platoon with Mueller. Barry Bonds, lf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 511 146 33 5 35 115 105 6 121 28 78 27 9 .286 .425 .575 1.000 132 Prorated SF 344 98 22 3 23 77 70 4 81 18 52 18 6 .285 .424 .567 .990 87 Actual SF 355 93 20 2 34 91 83 3 73 9 62 15 2 .262 .389 .617 1.006 91 Barry Bonds went on the DL for only the second time in his career last season, missing 7 weeks of the season after undergoing elbow surgery to remove bone spurs. While he was in the lineup, he hit home runs at the best pace of his career, hitting a homer about every 10.4 atbats. The rest of his offense was down from his usual standards: this was the lowest batting average and on-base percentage for Bonds since 1989. Given that he came back 3 weeks early from the elbow surgery, and played with a knee that required off-season surgery, it's not too surprising his numbers were down. The question is, will he be healthy in 2000? The Giants are optimistic that he will be, despite his age, and there's reason to expect it. Bonds has never been injury prone, and has always kept himself in superb condition. Bonds made news this spring by declaring that his goal was to play until he was 42, and to catch his godfather Willie Mays in home runs. Barring major injury, it seems likely that Bonds would be able to play that long; his skills don't show many signs of decline, though he's probably reaching the age where he should cut back on his stolen base attempts to save wear and tear. Can he hit 661 homers? It's not out of the question, though far from a sure thing. Going into 2000, he has 445. If he averaged 36 homers over the next six seasons, he would pass Mays. We don't know yet what effects PacBell Park will have on hitters, though it's likely to be friendlier than the Stick was, with the small foul territory and 307 feet down the right field line. To have a realistic shot, Bonds probably has to put up a couple of 50 homer seasons, which is more than he's ever done before. However, Bonds was on pace to hit 50 last year had he been able to get 525 at-bats. It's also not unusual for a player of Bonds' level to add another MVP-caliber year in his mid-to-late 30s. Marvin Benard, cf, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 609 169 34 2 6 90 59 6 68 2 94 24 9 .278 .355 .369 .724 85 Prorated SF 550 152 30 1 5 81 53 5 61 1 84 21 8 .276 .353 .362 .715 74 Actual SF 562 163 36 5 16 100 64 6 55 2 97 27 14 .290 .359 .457 .816 94 Benard is a rare product of the Giant farm system -- of the other players expected to be regulars, only Doug Mirabelli and Bill Mueller were drafted and developed by the Giants. Benard's jump in power last season raised him to the level of an average center fielder, but you'd like to see a higher OBP for the player expected to lead off. The major concern the Giants have about Benard is his defense; with that big center field (404 feet to center, 420 feet to right center) and a 35 year old Ellis Burks in right, the Giant center fielder will be expected to cover a lot of ground. If Benard doesn't get the job done, Calvin Murray might get a shot. Ellis Burks, rf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 540 134 27 4 22 81 77 5 59 1 115 11 7 .248 .325 .435 .760 75 Prorated SF 412 102 20 3 16 61 58 3 45 0 87 8 5 .248 .323 .427 .750 56 Actual SF 390 110 19 0 31 73 96 6 69 2 86 7 5 .282 .394 .569 .964 89 Burks played with a bad right knee all season long, and had surgery on it in the offseason. When he played last year, he was quite productive. His performance level hasn't dropped as fast as the projection system wants to take him, but he is 35 with bad knees. He'll probably need rest more often to keep his production up; fortunately, the Giants appear to have a capable backup in Armando Rios. Armando Rios, rf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 67 16 3 0 2 10 12 0 6 0 11 2 1 .239 .297 .373 .670 8 Prorated SF 158 37 7 0 4 23 28 0 14 0 25 4 2 .234 .293 .354 .648 17 Actual SF 150 49 9 0 7 32 29 1 24 1 35 7 4 .327 .420 .527 .947 34 Rios filled in with Burks and Bonds going down to injury, and did an excellent job. He'll probably be called on more next season, both to rest Burks and to replace him defensively late in games. With Stan Javier and F. P. Santangelo gone from last year's team, Rios becomes the first outfielder off the bench. Stan Javier, rf, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 65 18 2 1 1 10 7 0 8 0 10 3 1 .277 .351 .385 .736 9 Prorated SF 321 89 9 4 4 49 34 0 39 0 49 14 4 .277 .352 .368 .719 45 Actual SF 333 92 15 1 3 49 30 1 29 4 55 13 6 .276 .335 .354 .690 41 Prorated Hou 65 18 2 1 1 10 7 0 8 0 10 3 1 .277 .351 .385 .736 9 Actual Hou 64 21 4 1 0 12 4 0 9 0 8 3 1 .328 .405 .422 .827 11 Prorated Tot 386 107 11 5 5 59 41 0 47 0 59 17 5 .277 .352 .370 .722 55 Actual Tot 397 113 19 2 3 61 34 1 38 4 63 16 7 .285 .347 .365 .712 52 Stan Javier is a steady role player -- never a star, most years only a semi-regular, but consistent. The Giants traded him to Houston, where he got to play in the playoffs, and he's signed with Seattle. F. P. Santangelo, cf/lf/2b/rf/3b/ss, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 90 20 4 0 1 13 7 5 11 0 17 1 1 .222 .336 .300 .636 10 Prorated SF 266 59 11 0 2 38 20 14 32 0 50 2 2 .222 .334 .286 .620 29 Actual SF 254 66 17 3 3 49 26 11 53 0 54 12 4 .260 .406 .386 .792 48 Santangelo had his best season as a jack of all trades in San Francisco, but the Giants chose to non-tender him, making him a free agent. Santangelo will be playing for the Dodgers next season. Felipe Crespo may fill the jack of all trades role next season for the Giants. Key PitchersThe Giants pitching staff was a work in progress last season. Mark Gardner, expected to be the leader, wasn't. Shawn Estes, expected to be a major contributor, struggled. Instead, Russ Ortiz emerged as the best pitcher for most of the season, and the Giants used their depth in arms in the minors to acquire Livan Hernandez, who's now expected to be the number one starter. The bullpen roles also shifted from the expectations at the start of the year, and as with the bench, the Giants have elected to let some of the veteran bullpen members go in favor of younger arms. Livan Hernandez, starter, age 24 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Flo 4.69 32 32 11 14 0 217 230 25 95 155 .273 .772 Prorated Flo 4.69 20 20 7 9 0 138 147 16 61 99 .273 .772 Actual Flo 4.76 20 20 5 9 0 136 161 17 55 97 .294 .801 Prorated SF 4.69 9 9 3 4 0 62 66 7 27 44 .273 .772 Actual SF 4.38 10 10 3 3 0 64 66 6 21 47 .267 .731 Prorated Tot 4.69 30 30 10 13 0 200 212 23 88 143 .273 .772 Actual Tot 4.64 30 30 8 12 0 200 227 23 76 144 .286 .780 Livan Hernandez performed quite close to projections last season, though the Giants certainly seem to expect better from him in the future. San Francisco gave up two of their top pitching prospects in Jason Grilli and Nate Bump to get Hernandez, and signed him to a four-year deal this offseason. He's also been named the Opening Day starter for the team. If Hernandez can pitch like he did in 1997, he's worth all that. If he pitches like the last two seasons, he's a solid inning-eater, but not a #1 starter. Hernandez is still young, having just turned 25, and was worked pretty hard in Florida in 1998, but not as hard in 1999. Maybe after the lighter workload, he'll bounce back. On the other hand, manager Dusty Baker works his starters pretty hard, too; he led the league in the number of 120+ pitch counts for starters, and PacBell Park is likely to be a less pitcher-friendly park than either Pro Player Stadium or Candlestick. Russ Ortiz, starter, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.64 32 32 10 12 0 186 188 21 99 162 .264 .780 Prorated SF 4.64 35 35 11 13 0 206 208 23 110 180 .264 .780 Actual SF 3.81 33 33 18 9 0 208 189 24 125 164 .244 .739 Ortiz was the other starter the Giants signed to a four-year deal this offseason. Except for the walk total, Ortiz had a very good season for the Giants, and was the best pitcher for most of the season. One worrisome factor is that last year represented the heaviest workload by far of Ortiz' career; he faced over 900 batters last season, and was tied for second in the league (with teammate Livan Hernandez) with 112.8 pitches per start. Only Randy Johnson threw more pitches per start. The Giants' pitching coach last year was Ron Perranoski, the former Dodger pitching coach when the Dodgers were famous for working their starters hard; it will be interesting to see if things change with new pitching coach Dave Righetti. Another cause for concern is the league-worst walk total -- in a home park more conducive to offense, that could spell trouble. Shawn Estes, starter, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 3.62 32 32 12 10 0 194 176 15 98 169 .245 .697 Prorated SF 3.62 35 35 13 11 0 213 193 16 108 186 .245 .697 Actual SF 4.92 32 32 11 11 0 203 209 21 112 159 .268 .765 Estes posted a second straight disappointing season after his excellent 1997 campaign. Since that season, his ERA has hovered around the 5.00 mark, he's given up more hits than innings pitched, and his strikeout numbers have declined while his walk numbers haven't. Despite that, he faced over 900 batters last season, his heaviest workload to date. Another point of concern is the huge home/road split Estes showed last season, posting a 3.72 ERA at home but a 6.38 ERA on the road. Kirk Rueter, starter, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.25 32 32 10 10 0 182 189 22 52 96 .270 .745 Prorated SF 4.25 34 34 10 10 0 191 198 23 54 101 .270 .745 Actual SF 5.41 33 33 15 10 0 185 219 28 55 94 .297 .826 Rueter is the veteran of the pitching staff, and his off-speed junk provides a nice contrast to the hard throwers in the rotation. With the help of over six and a half runs per game of support, Rueter managed a nice won-loss record despite his 5.41 ERA. Unlike his rotation mates, he doesn't walk a ton of batters, but he puts more runners on via the base hit. Despite his less than eye-popping numbers, he's been a fairly steady part of the rotation, and has managed 13, 16, and 15 wins the last three seasons. There's not as much potential upside, but there's less risk; you have a pretty good idea what you'll get from Rueter. Joe Nathan, starter, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual SF 4.18 19 14 7 4 1 90 84 17 46 54 .243 .781 Nathan joined the Giants rotation after stops in Shreveport and Fresno, and performed quite well for the Giants. Nathan's strikeout numbers have been better in the minors than he showed in the bigs last season, so there's a good chance that number will improve some next season, though he's not a strong strikeout pitcher. His 5+ walks/9 innings fit right in with this staff last year, but his minor league walk rates weren't that high. Chris Brock, starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.65 27 27 8 8 0 157 173 20 69 115 .281 .813 Prorated SF 4.65 18 18 5 5 0 107 118 14 47 78 .281 .813 Actual SF 5.48 19 19 6 8 0 107 124 18 41 76 .291 .828 Chris Brock began the season as the fifth starter, but lost that job and the season when he tore a ligament in his knee and had to have reconstructive surgery. With the emergence of Joe Nathan, and the acquisition of Livan Hernandez, the starting rotation was set, so that when they got a chance to shore up the catching position, they sent Brock to Philadelphia for catcher Bobby Estalella. Robb Nen, closer, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 2.28 70 0 5 5 43 79 62 5 24 87 .217 .593 Prorated SF 2.28 71 0 5 5 44 80 63 5 24 88 .217 .593 Actual SF 3.98 72 0 3 8 37 72 79 8 27 77 .275 .748 Nen blew nine saves last year, and wasn't nearly as dominating as he had been the year before. Finally word leaked out that he had a bad elbow, and he had surgery in the offseason to repair it. As I write this, Nen is preparing to throw to batters for the first time since surgery, and is ahead of schedule in his rehab. It's still an open question as to whether Nen will be ready for the start of the season, and, of course, to how well he'll pitch. If he's not ready, it's likely that setup man John Johnstone moves into the closer role. Alan Embree, setup man, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 3.72 70 0 6 4 1 97 92 12 46 92 .251 .737 Prorated SF 3.72 41 0 3 2 1 56 53 7 27 53 .251 .737 Actual SF 3.38 68 0 3 2 0 59 42 6 26 53 .200 .609 Embree is the left-handed setup man in the bullpen to complement right-handed setup man John Johnstone. His performance was in line with projections, and the Giants are counting on him to do it again next season. Depending on who wins the battle for the last relief spot, Embree may be the only lefty in a short bullpen, as Baker would prefer to go with only 11 pitchers. John Johnstone, setup man, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 3.50 53 0 4 3 0 75 67 8 32 67 .240 .717 Prorated SF 3.50 44 0 3 2 0 62 55 7 26 55 .240 .717 Actual SF 2.60 62 0 4 6 3 66 48 8 20 56 .203 .626 Johnstone is the right-handed half of the setup duo that finished 1-2 in the league in holds (Johnstone was first, Embree second.) Part of the reason is that Baker seems to like well-defined roles for his bullpen more than most managers, but part of the reason is that Johnstone and Embree pitched well. Mark Gardner, long reliever/starter, age 37Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.62 32 32 10 12 0 195 205 30 59 139 .271 .780 Prorated SF 4.62 24 24 7 9 0 144 151 22 43 102 .271 .780 Actual SF 6.47 29 21 5 11 0 139 142 27 57 86 .267 .813 Gardner was supposed to be the Giants top starter last year, but ended up out of the rotation after injury trouble and poor performances. The Giants hope that off-season shoulder surgery cured the injury problem, but aren't counting on Gardner in the rotation. He'll be in long relief, in reserve in case one of the starters falters or gets hurt. That is, unless top prospect Kurt Ainsworth makes the leap this year. Miguel Del Toro, reliever, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.32 30 0 2 3 0 42 42 5 15 32 .258 .677 Prorated SF 4.32 17 0 1 2 0 24 24 3 9 18 .258 .677 Actual SF 4.18 14 0 0 0 0 24 24 5 11 20 .264 .838 Del Toro will be fighting for the last bullpen spot this spring along with Aaron Fultz and Dave Maurer. Del Toro has the most experience of the trio, having pitched in the Mexican League, and the Giants were pleased with his performance in Fresno last year. Fultz and Maurer have the advantage of being southpaws; the Giants have only Alan Embree pitching from the left in the pen. Maurer is a Rule V draftee, which could also give him a leg up on the battle. Felix Rodriguez, reliever, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.13 40 0 3 3 0 52 51 5 34 41 .258 .763 Prorated SF 4.13 49 0 4 4 0 64 62 6 41 50 .258 .763 Actual SF 3.80 47 0 2 3 0 66 67 6 29 55 .262 .725 Rodriguez is another candidate for the closer job should Nen not be ready, or struggle out of the gate. Rodriguez had his strongest year to date in his career, though he had a tendency to let inherited runners home. If Embree remains the only lefty in the pen, Rodriguez will get to play honorary lefty, as he gets lefties out better than right-handed batters. Rich Rodriguez, reliever, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.13 53 0 3 3 0 57 60 7 17 36 .275 .747 Prorated SF 4.13 57 0 3 3 0 60 64 7 18 38 .275 .747 Actual SF 5.24 62 0 3 0 0 57 60 8 28 44 .274 .803 With Alan Embree out-performing him, and a host of young arms in the minors, the Giants decided not to re-sign Rodriguez, who signed with the Mets. This offseason the Giants let a lot of veteran role players go, electing to fill those slots with younger, cheaper players from the organization. Probably a good idea, but if the Giants struggle, those inexperienced players will take the blame. OutlookThe Giants go into spring training with the lineup, rotation, and bullpen pretty much set. The key will be staying healthy, something they had trouble with last season. If Bonds, Kent, and Nen can bounce back from last season's injury problems, they should be in the thick of the NL West race. The biggest area of concern I see is with the rotation, and how hard those pitchers were worked last season. Probably the biggest question mark around the Giants is how the new park will affect the team. Candlestick (yes, I know it's 3Com) was a pitcher-friendly park, inasmuch as it was friendly to anyone. PacBell Park is likely to be much friendlier to hitters. The belief is that it won't be as windy as the 'Stick; of course, wind tunnels are less windy than the 'Stick could be. My guess is that it will still get pretty cold at night there, though the particulars of wind, fog, and temperature in the summer in the Bay Area are fairly complex, and can be very different in places not very far apart. The right field line will be short, but the right center power alley will be very deep. The foul territory is minimal. One thing is for sure -- there will be a lot of fans there, as the Giants have almost sold out the season already. A hitter-friendly park and some tired arms in the rotation could spell some big ERAs for the Giants in 2000. But with no one dominating the West, and lots of arms in the minors, the Giants should be playing games that count in September. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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