Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- St. Louis Cardinals By Tom Ruane This article takes a look at how the St. Louis Cardinals did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 864 809 Runs allowed 789 838 Run Margin 75 -29 Wins 88 75 Pythagorean wins 88 78 Placement 2nd 4th The Cardinals in 1999 bore little resemblance to the previous edition of the team. Only two of the starters at the beginning of 1998 were still on the club last year and only one of them (Mark McGwire) was playing regularly by the season's end. Brian Jordan, John Mabry and Delino DeShields left as free agents following 1998; Eric Davis, Scott Radinsky and Shawon Dunston were signed. Ron Gant, Jeff Brantley, Cliff Politte and about $6 million went to the Phillies in exchange for Rick Bottalico and Garrett Stephenson, and three minor leaguers were sent to the Marlins for Edgar Renteria. When the dust settled, it looked as though the Cardinals would improve upon their 1998 mark of 83-79. The league's best offense, combined with adequate pitching, was supposed to put St. Louis in the middle of the NL Central race. Instead, both their hitting and pitching were big disappointments and the Cardinals won 12 fewer games than projected, a fact that didn't prevent the team from breaking its all-time attendance mark. 3,235,833 fans paid their way into Busch Stadium to see Mark McGwire try to set yet another single-season home run record. Key Position PlayersThe Cardinals were expected to have the most potent offense in the NL (not including the mile-high hitters in Colorado), but instead scored only 809 runs, or almost exactly the league average. While Mark McGwire produced his usual allotment of home runs and Fernando Tatis was a pleasant surprise, poor seasons from Eli Marrero and J.D. Drew, as well as injuries to Eric Davis and Lankford took much of the punch out of the attack. Eli Marrero, c/1b, age 25 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 486 123 25 2 15 60 59 2 45 6 74 10 6 .253 .317 .405 .722 62 Prorated StL 309 78 15 1 9 38 37 1 28 3 47 6 3 .252 .315 .395 .710 38 Actual StL 317 61 13 1 6 32 34 1 18 4 56 11 2 .192 .236 .297 .533 20 The last two years have been especially rough on Eli Marrero. After undergoing radiation treatment in 1998 for a cancerous thyroid, he saw his offense completely disappear in 1999. He had been a pretty good hitter in the minors, with 20 homers in 395 at-bats and a .273 average at Louisville in 1997, but he was helpless at the plate last year. Starting on July 4th, Marrero would get hits in only 4 of his next 36 games, going a miserable 8-74 with no home runs. By the end of the season, he had lost his starting job to Alberto Castillo and was heading to the Fall Instructional League in an attempt to rediscover his hitting stroke. With the trade of Castillo during the off-season, it looks as though the Cards are counting on a comeback from Marrero in 2000. Alberto Castillo, c, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 84 16 2 0 1 9 6 1 10 0 21 0 0 .190 .284 .250 .534 7 Prorated StL 246 46 5 0 2 26 17 2 29 0 61 0 0 .187 .278 .232 .510 18 Actual StL 255 67 8 0 4 21 31 2 24 1 48 0 0 .263 .326 .341 .667 29 After spending 11 years in the New York Mets organization, Castillo signed with the Phillies as a free agent following the 1998 season. He would stay with Philadelphia for all of five weeks before being drafted by the Cardinals in December. A career .198 hitter entering the season, Castillo turned out to be a pleasant surprise for St. Louis. Oddly enough, Castillo ended up doing nearly as well as we had expected Marrero to do, while Marrero's season was right in line with our projection for Castillo. Despite batting from the right side, Alberto didn't hit lefties at all in 1999 (.174 average with no home runs). He was traded to Toronto in the Pat Hentgen deal following the season. Mark McGwire, 1b, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 521 145 23 0 63 112 131 7 133 22 155 1 0 .278 .429 .685 1.114 161 Prorated StL 517 144 22 0 62 111 130 6 132 21 154 0 0 .279 .429 .681 1.109 159 Actual StL 521 145 21 1 65 118 147 2 133 21 141 0 0 .278 .424 .697 1.120 160 A lot of things seem inevitable after the fact. Today, people are talking about Mark McGwire's chances of hitting 700 or 756 home runs, but five years ago it seemed extremely unlikely that he would even get as many as 500 round-trippers. By the time he turned 31, he had only 238 home runs. To put this in perspective, this was fewer homers than Tom Brunansky had hit by the same age. Even after coming back to hit 39 home runs in 1995, McGwire was still behind the pace set by such sluggers as Del Ennis and Boog Powell. In the four seasons since then, of course, he has AVERAGED over 61 home runs a year -- more than Maris hit during his record-setting season back in 1961. After holding the record for nearly 37 years, Roger Maris has now had his mark topped four times in the last two years. It wouldn't surprise me if his total is not even among the ten best by the end of the decade. One of odd things about McGwire's season was how poorly the Cardinals did in games featuring one or more of his home runs. They actually did worse when he homered (24-32) than when he didn't (51-54). And when he hit more than one home run, the Cardinals were awful, winning only two of nine decisions. Joe McEwing, 2b/lf/cf/rf/3b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 551 147 35 8 7 68 61 3 25 4 64 10 11 .267 .301 .397 .698 62 Prorated StL 539 143 34 7 6 66 59 2 24 3 62 9 10 .265 .298 .388 .686 59 Actual StL 513 141 28 4 9 65 44 6 41 8 87 7 4 .275 .333 .398 .730 71 After hitting just .236 at the AA level in 1996 and 1997, McEwing suddenly learned to hit in 1998. He collected 189 hits, 51 doubles, 11 triples and 15 home runs for the Cardinals' AA and AAA club that year. He didn't walk much, but that was a small negative when compared to a .342 batting average and .556 slugging percentage. He continue his hot streak in the majors through the first half of 1999. By the time he hit in his 25th consecutive game on July 4th, he had a .312 batting average, although with little power and few walks. He hit only .223 from then on, however, to bring his final mark closer to our projections for him. He was one of the poorer hitting second basemen in the majors and a move to the outfield (where he spent most of September) will only serve to highlight his offensive shortcomings. With the off-season addition of second-baseman Fernando Vino to the roster, it looks as though McEwing will have to compete for an outfield job in 2000. Placido Polanco, 2b/3b/ss, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 71 17 3 0 0 7 5 0 3 0 6 2 0 .239 .270 .282 .552 6 Prorated StL 227 54 9 0 0 22 16 0 9 0 19 6 0 .238 .267 .278 .544 18 Actual StL 220 61 9 3 1 24 19 0 15 1 24 1 3 .277 .321 .359 .680 24 A light-hitting defensive specialist, Polanco saw most of his action at second base in the first half of the season before being displaced by McEwing. He spent the second half of both July and August in the minors where he hit even worse than he had with St. Louis. Adam Kennedy, 2b, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 72 18 4 1 1 7 7 0 1 0 8 2 1 .250 .257 .375 .632 7 Prorated StL 105 26 5 1 1 10 10 0 1 0 11 2 1 .248 .255 .343 .598 9 Actual StL 102 26 10 1 1 12 16 2 3 0 8 0 1 .255 .284 .402 .686 12 He moved through three levels of the Cardinals minor league system in 1998, finishing up with a .305 average with their class AAA club in Memphis. He continued to improve his game at Memphis last year before getting called up to the Cards when Polanco was sent down in August. While his fine statistics in the minors (.327 average and a .490 slugging percentage) didn't translate into a lot of success during his short trial in St. Louis, he was the front-runner for the second baseman's job in 2000 before the trade for Vina. After showing little command of the strike zone in previous years, Kennedy nearly doubled his walk rate last season. Edgar Renteria, ss, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 601 176 23 3 5 92 46 4 49 1 92 40 17 .293 .349 .366 .715 77 Prorated StL 586 171 22 2 4 89 44 3 47 0 89 39 16 .292 .346 .357 .703 72 Actual StL 585 161 36 2 11 92 63 2 53 0 82 37 8 .275 .334 .400 .734 81 After hitting only 12 home runs in his three previous big league seasons, Renteria almost matched that total in 1999 alone. His increased power (he also easily topped his career high in doubles) caused him to exceed our projections for him, despite a relatively low (for him) batting average. After leading the NL in caught stealing in 1998, Renteria had an excellent stolen base success rate last year. Fernando Tatis, 3b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 568 157 33 2 16 73 64 5 41 3 125 14 4 .276 .330 .426 .756 77 Prorated StL 585 161 34 2 16 75 65 5 42 3 128 14 4 .275 .328 .422 .750 79 Actual StL 537 160 31 2 34 104 107 16 82 4 128 21 9 .298 .404 .553 .957 125 Only Chipper Jones was a better hitting third baseman in all of baseball than Fernando Tatis was last year. After coming over from Texas the previous July in a trade involving Royce Clayton and Todd Stottlemyre, Tatis had a breakthrough season in 1999. He more than doubled his walk rate from the previous year, turning a weakness into a strength, and fulfilled the promise he had shown when he had hit 32 home runs in 1997 (split between Texas and Tulsa). Eric Davis, rf, age 37AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 429 128 27 1 22 74 77 5 48 1 111 10 6 .298 .371 .520 .891 83 Prorated StL 196 58 12 0 10 33 35 2 21 0 50 4 2 .296 .367 .510 .877 37 Actual StL 191 49 9 2 5 27 30 1 30 1 49 5 4 .257 .359 .403 .762 30 The Cardinals signed Eric Davis last year to help replace some of the offense Brian Jordan took with him to Atlanta. It was a risky move on their part, given both Davis's age and medical history, and it didn't work out. Davis suffered through shoulder problems in May and June before his season came to an end when he was injured making two diving catches to help preserve Jose Jiminez' no-hitter on June 29th. It was a disappointing if not entirely unexpected turn of events for the talented yet fragile Davis, a gifted athlete who has never managed to play more than 135 games in any of his 14 major league seasons. He will once again be penciled in as one of the Cardinals' regular outfielders in 2000. Willie McGee, rf/lf/cf, age 40AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 161 44 8 1 2 17 20 0 9 2 30 4 1 .273 .310 .373 .683 18 Prorated StL 273 74 13 1 3 28 33 0 15 3 50 6 1 .271 .308 .359 .667 30 Actual StL 271 68 7 0 0 25 20 0 17 3 60 7 4 .251 .293 .277 .570 22 McGee played more than anticipated last season and the Cardinals suffered as a result. Simply put, he was dreadful at the plate in 1998 and was even worse last year. It was the first time since 1993 that an outfielder with more than 250 at-bats had both an on-base and slugging percentage under .300. He has since announced his retirement. Thomas Howard, rf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 70 16 4 0 1 7 6 0 5 0 12 1 1 .229 .280 .329 .609 6 Prorated StL 200 45 11 0 2 20 17 0 14 0 34 2 2 .225 .276 .310 .586 17 Actual StL 195 57 10 0 6 16 28 2 17 0 26 1 1 .292 .353 .436 .789 30 The Cardinals picked up the well-traveled reserve outfielder after he was released in the off-season by the Dodgers. Howard was recalled when J.D. Drew went on the DL in May and responded with his best season. Considering his age, and the fact that he had hit only .184 in limited duty with Los Angeles the year before, his performance was unexpected and not likely to be repeated. Craig Paquette, rf/3b/2b/1b, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYN 71 16 3 0 2 7 9 0 3 0 18 1 1 .225 .253 .352 .605 5 Prorated StL 157 35 6 0 4 15 19 0 6 0 39 2 2 .223 .248 .338 .586 11 Actual StL 157 45 6 0 10 21 37 0 6 0 38 1 0 .287 .309 .516 .825 23 After missing almost all of 1998 with an ankle injury, Paquette was playing for the Mets AAA club in Norfolk when he was traded to the Cards for Shawon Dunston at the end of July. Once he joined St. Louis, he filled in at several positions, putting together the best two months of his career. He was especially good with runners in scoring position, hitting .358 with a .642 slugging percentage, accounting for his high RBI totals. Considering that his career average with runners in scoring position prior to 1999 was only .243, his performance in these situations last year was probably simply the result of good fortune. J.D. Drew, cf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 568 173 43 8 32 109 107 4 102 2 131 4 6 .305 .412 .577 .989 134 Prorated StL 360 109 27 5 20 69 67 2 64 1 83 2 3 .303 .409 .572 .981 84 Actual StL 368 89 16 6 13 72 39 6 50 0 77 19 3 .242 .340 .424 .763 59 It's an understatement to say that expectations were high for J.D. Drew last season. Since signing with the St. Louis following the 1998 draft, he hit well in short stints for both their AA and AAA clubs that summer before having a tremendous couple of weeks for the Cards in September. Lankford's knee injury forced Drew to play center instead of right, and perhaps the defensive demands of the position contributed to Drew's slow start. By the time he went on the DL in mid-May with a strained right quadricep, Drew was hitting .230 with little power. He would return at the end of June and turn in a fine July (7 home runs and a .301 average) before slumping again over the last two months of the season. Despite his struggles as a rookie, Drew has tremendous potential and is counted on to improve a great deal in 2000. If he doesn't, manager Tony LaRussa has said that he won't hesitate to send his young outfielder back to the minors. Darren Bragg, cf/rf/lf, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 163 40 10 1 3 20 18 2 20 1 35 3 2 .245 .332 .374 .706 20 Prorated StL 280 68 17 1 5 34 30 3 34 1 60 5 3 .243 .328 .364 .692 34 Actual StL 273 71 12 1 6 38 26 3 44 1 67 3 0 .260 .369 .377 .746 41 A free agent pickup during the off-season, we anticipated a bench role for Bragg in 1999. Injuries to Lankford and then Drew turned Bragg into a regular until a torn ligament in his right knee put him on the DL for good at the beginning of August. His option was declined after the season and he won't be back. Shawon Dunston, cf/lf/1b/ss/3b/rf, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 70 18 4 1 1 9 7 1 2 0 10 3 1 .257 .284 .386 .669 8 Prorated StL 147 37 8 2 2 18 14 2 4 0 21 6 2 .252 .277 .374 .652 15 Actual StL 150 46 5 2 5 23 25 3 2 0 23 6 3 .307 .327 .467 .794 21 Actual NYN 93 32 6 1 0 12 16 2 0 0 16 4 1 .344 .354 .430 .784 13 Prorated NYN 90 23 5 1 1 11 9 1 2 0 12 3 1 .256 .277 .367 .643 9 Prorated Tot 238 61 13 3 3 30 23 3 6 0 34 10 3 .256 .280 .374 .654 25 Actual Tot 243 78 11 3 5 35 41 5 2 0 39 10 4 .321 .337 .453 .790 34 A bit player at this stage of his career, Dunston filled in at a variety of positions before being traded to the Mets at the end of July for Craig Paquette. After the season, he decided to return to St. Louis as a free agent. The walk total above is not a misprint; he really did walk only twice all season. The last time a player with 200 or more at-bats walked less often than that was in 1994, when Kim Batiste received only a single free pass in 209 at-bats for the Phillies. Ray Lankford, lf, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 533 148 38 2 28 95 99 2 87 8 145 25 7 .278 .378 .514 .892 110 Prorated StL 404 112 28 1 21 72 75 1 66 6 110 18 5 .277 .378 .507 .885 82 Actual StL 422 129 32 1 15 77 63 3 49 3 110 14 4 .306 .380 .493 .873 82 Lankford started the season on the DL with a knee injury. When he returned, he was moved from center to left field to take some of the pressure off his knee. The move allowed him to remain in the lineup for the rest of the season, and while he didn't approach either his 31 homers or 105 RBIs of the year before, he had a productive season nonetheless. After hitting 10 home runs in his first 102 at-bats last year, Lankford's power all but disappeared the rest of the year. Key PitchersGoing into spring training in 1999, the Cardinals were counting on using a starting rotation of Matt Morris, Darren Oliver, Kent Mercker, Donovan Osborne and Jose Jimenez. Morris ended up having reconstructive elbow surgery and missing the entire season; Osborne lasted only a month before going down with shoulder problems; Jimenez pitched his way back to the minor leagues by August, and Mercker had a three-month winless streak before being traded to the Red Sox in August for two prospects. There were a few pleasant surprises, including Kent Bottenfield and Garrett Stephenson, but these were overwhelmed by problems in the rest of the rotation and an almost complete collapse in the bullpen, where Ricky Bottalico, Juan Acevedo, Manuel Aybar, Lance Painter and Scott Radinsky all did much worse than anticipated. Darren Oliver, Starter, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 4.69 32 32 10 12 0 190 202 21 74 113 .275 .777 Prorated StL 4.69 32 32 10 12 0 192 204 21 75 114 .275 .777 Actual StL 4.26 30 30 9 9 0 196 197 16 74 119 .265 .736 In 1998, Oliver posted a 4.26 ERA for the Cards after coming over from Texas in the Tatis trade. He repeated that performance last year. Oliver struggled in the middle of the season, at one point going eight weeks between victories, and was reported to be on the trading block in July. A free agent after the season, Oliver signed with the Rangers for 2000. Donovan Osborne, Starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 4.31 32 32 11 11 0 198 203 27 54 140 .265 .745 Prorated StL 4.31 5 5 2 2 0 31 32 4 8 22 .265 .745 Actual StL 5.52 6 6 1 3 0 29 34 4 10 21 .298 .845 After losing half of 1997 and 1998 to injuries, Osborne made only six starts last season before undergoing shoulder surgery in early May. He has now made an appearance on the DL in each year since 1994. He was released by the Cardinals after the season. Jose Jimenez, Starter, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 4.24 57 27 14 14 0 238 240 19 106 115 .268 .746 Prorated StL 4.24 40 19 10 10 0 168 170 13 75 81 .268 .746 Actual StL 5.85 29 28 5 14 0 163 173 16 71 113 .275 .763 When Jose Jimenez beat the Dodgers on April 23rd, it marked his fifth career victory without a loss. In his seven major league games, his ERA stood at 2.95. The season went downhill for him in a hurry after that. He was sent to the minors in the middle of August, recalled three weeks later, and was dealt in the off-season to the Rockies (never good news to a pitcher) in the Darryl Kile trade. The strange thing is that he didn't really do all that much worse than we projected he would do (check out the prorated and actual lines above), but somehow managed to post a much higher ERA than anticipated. Although he would go only 3-14 after that career-opening winning streak, his season was not without its high points. Two of his victories came within ten days of each other in spectacular fashion. The first was be a no-hitter, the second a two-hitter; in both games he shut out Randy Johnson and the Arizona Diamondbacks. I was at his no-hitter, along with a couple of hundred members of The Society of American Baseball Research and two other members of the Diamond Mind staff. It was a game I'll never forget. Kent Mercker, Swing Man, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 5.16 32 32 9 11 0 171 205 18 64 82 .298 .803 Prorated StL 5.16 20 20 6 7 0 106 127 11 40 51 .298 .803 Actual StL 5.12 25 18 6 5 0 104 125 16 51 64 .303 .885 Prorated Bos 5.16 5 5 1 2 0 25 30 3 9 12 .298 .803 Actual Bos 3.51 5 5 2 0 0 26 23 0 13 17 .235 .644 Prorated Tot 5.16 25 25 7 8 0 131 157 14 49 63 .298 .803 Actual Tot 4.80 30 23 8 5 0 129 148 16 64 81 .290 .839 Mercker was considered somewhat of a disappointment by the Cardinals. He was dropped from the rotation for a time in May and June, suffered through a three-month winless streak, and was finally traded to the Red Sox in August for prospects. Despite this, he didn't pitch much worse than projected and part of the team's unhappiness with his performance was no doubt due to the club's unrealistic expectations for him. Kent Bottenfield, Starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 4.07 34 4 3 3 0 66 65 7 25 50 .257 .718 Prorated StL 4.07 9 9 0 197 193 21 74 148 .257 .718 Actual StL 3.97 31 31 18 7 0 190 197 21 89 124 .270 .782 Bottenfield entered the season with an 18-27 career record and would not have been in the starting rotation at all if not for the injury to Morris. The odd thing is that he didn't really pitch better than we thought he would. His role on the team was certainly different, and his won-lost record dramatically better, but he actually allowed more base runners per nine innings than projected. He was 14-3 prior to his appearance in the All-Star game. In the second half of the season, he would go only 4-4 despite a respectable (for 1999) ERA of 4.26. His season ended two starts early due to shoulder problems. The good news is that his performance doesn't appear to be a fluke; the bad news is that his won-loss record does. He simply didn't pitch well enough (even considering his run support) to go 18-7 and is unlikely to repeat his good fortune in 2000. Garrett Stephenson, Swing Man, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 5.40 4 4 1 1 0 20 21 3 8 13 .273 .799 Prorated StL 5.40 17 17 4 4 0 84 89 13 34 55 .273 .799 Actual StL 4.22 18 12 6 3 0 85 90 11 29 59 .275 .770 After a horrible season in 1998, where he went a combined 1-10 for the Phillies and their top farm team, Stephenson was a throw-in in the Gant-Bottilico deal during the off-season. He was recalled from the minors in June, pitched ineffectively out of the bullpen for three weeks and was sent down again. When he came back to the Cardinals in early August, LaRussa stuck him into the starting rotation and something strange happened: he started winning. He allowed only a single earned run in each of his first six starts, winning four and losing none. His ERA over that period was 1.37. He reverted to form after that, however, going 1-3 with a 6.56 ERA in his final six starts, and is a long-shot to remain in the rotation next year. Rick Ankiel, Swing Man, age 19Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual StL 3.27 9 5 0 1 1 33 26 2 14 39 .215 .607 The top pitching prospect in all of baseball, Ankiel was expected to spend the entire season in the Cardinals' farm system in 1999. A 13-3 record for their AA and AAA teams, as well as 194 strikeouts in only 137 2/3 innings, got him called up to the majors in August. With the injury to Kerry Wood fresh in their minds, the Cardinals were cautious with Ankiel. He never pitched past the sixth inning in any of his five starts before being moved to the bullpen to further ease the strain on his arm. Young arms like Ankiel's are always risky propositions and it would surprise me if he's allowed to pitch more than 150 innings in 2000. Ricky Bottalico, Closer, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 4.09 70 0 4 4 9 70 71 9 38 64 .263 .781 Prorated StL 4.09 77 0 4 4 10 77 78 10 42 71 .263 .781 Actual StL 4.91 68 0 3 7 20 73 83 8 49 66 .284 .841 Bottalico was picked up from Philadelphia in the off-season, the key player for the Cardinals in the Ron Gant trade (okay, the real key to the deal was simply getting rid of Gant). Still, picking up Bottalico looked like a risky move for St. Louis, since he was coming off a mediocre season in 1997 and a terrible one in 1998, during which he had surgery to remove a bone chip from his elbow and allowed a 6.44 ERA. He pitched surprisingly well early in the season and was given the closer's job when Acevedo struggled. A late season fade-out, during which he posted a 8.68 ERA with five blown saves in eight opportunities, had the team auditioning others for the job in 2000. Bottalico signed to play with the Kansas City Royals after the season. Juan Acevedo, Swing Man, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 4.23 70 0 2 7 25 72 75 8 27 51 .269 .747 Prorated StL 4.23 102 0 3 10 36 105 109 12 39 74 .269 .747 Actual StL 5.89 50 12 6 8 4 102 115 17 48 52 .291 .860 He was coming off a fine season in 1999, one in which he pitched well in the starting rotation and as both a setup man and closer. This time around, however, he did just the opposite, pitching poorly until he was replaced as the team's closer in May, going 2-3 with a 6.49 ERA in 12 starts over the next two months, before finishing up the year with an unimpressive stint in middle relief. He was traded to the Brewers after the season in the deal that brought Fernando Vina to St. Louis, and it looks as though Milwaukee will put him into their starting rotation in 2000. Manuel Aybar, Middle Relief, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 4.34 32 32 10 10 0 176 181 16 70 125 .266 .744 Prorated StL 4.34 18 18 6 6 0 99 101 9 39 70 .266 .744 Actual StL 5.47 65 1 4 5 3 97 104 13 36 74 .272 .777 A starter his entire career, Aybar was moved into the bullpen last year and pitched pretty well in the early going. By the All-Star break his ERA as a reliever was only 2.26. He was used frequently in long relief and had thrown an awful lot of innings (67 1/3) up to that point. I'm not sure if it was the heavy workload or if the league simply figured Aybar out, but he got steadily worse as the season progressed. By the time September rolled around, he couldn't get anyone out. In his last six games, he allowed 12 earned runs in only 4 1/3 innings, and over the second half of the season the league hit over .350 against him. Rich Croushore, Middle Relief, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 4.21 40 0 3 3 0 68 67 8 33 60 .258 .757 Prorated StL 4.21 44 0 3 3 0 75 73 9 36 66 .258 .757 Actual StL 4.14 59 0 3 7 3 72 68 9 43 88 .247 .761 After having a brief trial as the Cardinals' closer in 1998, Croushore started last year in the minor leagues. He was recalled when Osborne went down and pitched well enough to get another shot at the closer's role in August. He converted his first three save opportunities, and by the middle of the month had a 2.47 ERA in 42 games. He was clobbered in three straight games after that and was moved back into middle relief where he was ineffective the rest of the year. Along with Jose Jimenez and Manuel Aybar, he was sent to the Rockies after the season in the trade for Darryl Kile and Dave Veres. Mike Mohler, Middle Relief, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 4.40 23 0 2 2 0 31 34 3 14 24 .283 .782 Prorated StL 4.40 35 0 3 3 0 47 52 5 21 37 .283 .782 Actual StL 4.38 48 0 1 1 1 49 47 3 23 31 .255 .715 Mohler struggled in the first half of the season and was sent to the minor leagues at the end of June. A month later he was recalled when Radinsky went on the DL and pitched pretty well the rest of the way. He posted a 1.26 ERA at home last year compared to a 8.71 mark on the road. Lance Painter, Middle Relief, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 3.98 53 0 3 2 0 54 51 7 27 47 .250 .748 Prorated StL 3.98 60 0 3 2 0 62 58 8 31 53 .250 .748 Actual StL 4.83 56 4 4 5 1 63 63 6 25 56 .265 .735 Painter was another of a host of Cardinal relievers to finish with an ERA significantly higher than projected. In his case, however, it's hard to see why. He allowed fewer home runs and about the same number of base runners as expected. Painter missed the second half of June with a strained shoulder and pitched much better after returning from the DL. He was traded to Toronto after the season in the Pat Hentgen deal. Scott Radinsky, Middle Relief, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection StL 3.78 70 0 6 4 1 98 102 8 34 75 .271 .732 Prorated StL 3.78 21 0 2 1 0 29 31 2 10 23 .271 .732 Actual StL 4.88 43 0 2 1 3 28 27 2 18 17 .270 .771 The lefty reliever struggled with his control in 1999 before going down in late July with elbow problems. In each of his last six seasons, he has allowed between 17 and 21 walks. It's not particularly meaningful or even indicative of consistent control (since his innings pitched totals over the same period has gone from a low of 28 to a high of 62), but I thought it was interesting anyway. Heathcliff Slocumb, Middle Relief, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Bal 4.15 53 0 4 3 0 69 73 5 43 57 .273 .759 Prorated Bal 4.15 8 0 1 0 0 11 11 1 7 9 .273 .759 Actual Bal 12.46 10 0 0 0 0 9 15 2 9 12 .395 1.215 Prorated StL 4.15 40 0 3 2 0 52 55 4 32 43 .273 .759 Actual StL 2.36 40 0 3 2 2 53 49 3 30 48 .243 .679 Prorated Tot 4.15 48 0 4 2 0 63 66 5 39 52 .273 .759 Actual Tot 3.77 50 0 3 2 2 62 64 5 39 60 .267 .766 The Cardinals picked up Slocumb after he was released by the Orioles at the end of April. He joined the team in late May and, despite missing time with a strained shoulder, pitched much better than anyone had a right to expect. His low ERA with St. Louis was deceptive, however, given the high number of base runners he allowed (13.5 per nine innings) and I wouldn't count on him to do nearly as well next year. The Cardinals re-signed him to a two-year contract following the season. OutlookWalt Jocketty doesn't believe in standing pat. Once again, he has ensured that Cardinal fans will have plenty of new faces to look at in the coming year. Consider the pitching staff alone: since the end of the season, Oliver and Bottalico left via the free-agent route, Osborne was released, Jimenez, Acevedo, Aybar, Croushore and Painter were traded. The newcomers include Darryl Kile, Pat Hentgen, Andy Benes (signed as a free agent), Dave Veres and Paul Spoljaric. Who knows? Alan Benes and Matt Morris might also contend for spots in the crowded starting rotation. All of this activity should make for an interesting spring as well as for an improved pitching staff. The situation is a little more stable among the everyday players. Fernando Vina will attempt to become the new second baseman, with Adam Kennedy waiting in the wings if (when?) Vina gets injured again. Eric Davis will return in the outfield, all but ensuring plenty of time for reserves like Joe McEwing and Craig Paquette, while Eli Marrero will try to recover from a dreadful season last year. The rest of the lineup looks like it should be pretty much the same, with McGwire hitting 60 or more home runs again (assuming he can continue to stay as healthy as he has been the past three years) while the rest of his team tries to make sure that another 39 of those round-trippers don't come in losing causes. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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