Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Tampa Bay Devil Rays By Stuart Shea and Gary Gillette This article takes a look at how the Tampa Bay Devil Rays did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 731 772 Runs allowed 822 913 Run Margin -91 -141 Wins 74 69 Pythagorean wins 72 68 Placement 5th 5th The second-year expansion team raised the hopes of its fans by going 22-20 through the first two months of the season. However, things quickly fell apart as the D-Rays lost 16 of their next 19 games to fall to the bottom of the AL East. After that swoon, the only reason to cheer came when hometown hero Wade Boggs got his 3,000th hit. Boggs got the hit he expects will land him in the Hall of Fame, a line-drive home run, but retired soon after the season ended to become an executive with the club. There was a lot of excitement when it looked like Jose Canseco might be able to challenge Mark McGwire's single season home run record -- Jose had belted 30 homers by July 4 -- but that dream ended when the slugger missed six weeks with back problems. Even though Tampa again finished last in the division, general manager Chuck LaMar was happy enough with six more victories than the club had in its inaugural campaign. Devil Rays executives insisted following the 1999 season that the franchise was on track and that the club was making the amount of progress they had projected a second-year team would make. Other members of Major League Baseball's fraternity were not so sure, though. A visit by Commissioner Bud Selig to Tampa late last year underlined MLB's concern that the new franchise's precipitous drop in attendance in 1999 could strap the club financially and make it a basket case in need of long-term revenue sharing. Key Position PlayersTampa Bay scored the fourth-fewest runs in the American League last year, but the club hopes its two biggest acquisitions, sluggers Greg Vaughn and Vinny Castilla, will be able to provide enough punch to elevate the team several notches. They'll hit in the middle of the order with Fred McGriff and Jose Canseco, both of whom enjoyed an offensive renaissance in 1999. McGriff bounced back last season with his first 30-homer season since 1994, and Canseco was leading the majors in home runs midway through the season before he went down for six weeks with a back injury. After those two, unfortunately, Tampa Bay didn't have any real threats. A sure sign of the weakness of their offense was the fact that Dave Martinez and his .387 slugging average got 514 at-bats. John Flaherty, c, age 31 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 507 121 24 0 8 39 50 1 34 4 73 2 3 .239 .286 .333 .619 46 Prorated Tam 444 106 21 0 7 34 43 0 29 3 63 1 2 .239 .284 .333 .617 40 Actual Tam 446 124 19 0 14 53 71 6 19 0 64 0 2 .278 .310 .415 .725 54 Flaherty rebounded strongly in 1999 after a poor '98. He ended last season third among Devil Rays players in RBIs. While his year at bat was good, it wasn't spectacular; his ability to stay healthy enough to come to the plate close to 500 times is what made his RBI count high. He did bat .301 against right-handers, a 100-point elevation over his 1998 level, and slugged 200 points higher. Oddly, Flaherty, a right-handed batter, remained helpless, as usual, against southpaws and, again in 1999, rarely took a walk. Defensively Flaherty continued to impress. He fields well, has agility, and features a very strong arm. He is one of the better all-around receivers in the AL, which is currently fairly weak at the position. Mike DiFelice, c, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 69 15 3 0 1 5 7 0 5 0 15 0 0 .217 .270 .304 .575 5 Prorated Tam 175 38 7 0 2 12 17 0 12 0 38 0 0 .217 .267 .291 .559 12 Actual Tam 179 55 11 0 6 21 27 3 8 0 23 0 0 .307 .346 .469 .815 30 "Pigboy" had a good year at bat as the D-Rays' second-string receiver, throwing out more than 40 percent of enemy baserunners. He batted .300 or higher in four of the season's six months, and hit well against both lefties and righties. However, he did not iron out a big deficiency -- his inability to get on base via the walk. Backup duty is his role: It is not at all clear whether DiFelice can maintain the offensive pace he showed in 1999, and the Devil Rays would be wise not to expect too much of him. Fred McGriff, 1b, age 35AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 558 155 30 0 23 76 90 2 71 7 117 5 1 .278 .359 .455 .814 91 Prorated Tam 544 151 29 0 22 74 87 1 69 6 114 4 0 .278 .358 .452 .810 88 Actual Tam 529 164 30 1 32 75 104 1 86 11 107 1 0 .310 .405 .552 .957 121 This past winter would have been a great time to trade McGriff, as the aging slugger was coming off a terrific 1999, but the Rays decided to hold on to him with the idea that they might actually contend this year. While McGriff's long-term value is questionable, he did indeed light up the skies in 1999. It was his best season in half a decade, even factoring in a league-wide offensive explosion, as he once again did by far his best work at Tropicana Field (.344, 18 HR in home games). In 1999, he did most of his damage (uncharacteristically) before August. Fred is no longer impressive defensively and is one of the slowest players in the game. Left-handers still puzzle him as well (.765 OPS in '99). But last year, at least, Crime Dog arrested his late-career decline -- at least temporarily. Miguel Cairo, 2b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 516 135 26 4 4 62 44 6 22 0 45 23 10 .262 .298 .351 .649 54 Prorated Tam 472 123 23 3 3 56 40 5 20 0 41 21 9 .261 .297 .341 .638 48 Actual Tam 465 137 15 5 3 61 36 7 24 0 46 22 7 .295 .335 .368 .703 57 Now that Cairo has matured into an everyday major-league player, the only question to answer is, does he do enough to help his team win? That's the big question facing the Rays. Cairo is a good solid .280-.300 hitter who steals bases. He also kills lefties (.384 last season, .328 in 1998). Having said that, it's his entire case as an offensive player. He has negligible power and walks infrequently, making him unhelpful at the top of the order. Much of Cairo's value comes in the field. He has range slightly better than the league norm with good hands. He is much admired for his double-play skills as well. All in all, he adds up to a replacement-level player, providing neither quality hitting nor Gold Glove defense; he's not hurting the team, but he's not helping it climb out of the basement, either. Tony Graffanino, 2b/ss, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Tam 130 41 9 4 2 20 19 1 9 0 22 3 2 .315 .364 .492 .857 23 After being released by Atlanta in March '99, Graffanino signed with Tampa Bay, tore up AAA, earned a summer recall, and saved his career. He got enough playing time to show his stuff both at bat and in the field, displaying excellent range at second and average range at shortstop and hitting well in all situations (including .368 in September). He's won a utility job for 2000. Aaron Ledesma, ss/3b/2b, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 102 31 6 1 0 12 11 1 6 1 15 2 1 .304 .345 .382 .728 13 Prorated Tam 286 87 16 2 0 33 30 2 16 2 42 5 2 .304 .343 .374 .717 35 Actual Tam 294 78 15 0 0 32 30 3 14 1 35 1 1 .265 .305 .316 .622 25 While Ledesma didn't repeat his hot 1998 season (.324 in 95 games), he wasn't too bad. He has no power and rarely walks, but puts the bat on the ball and can play nearly everywhere on the diamond. Aaron's average against lefties dipped 125 points (to .262) in 1999; that was the chief reason for the offensive decline. Ledesma played all the infield positions last season, and while he's not a particularly rangy shortstop, he's excellent at second and third. Ledesma went to Colorado as part of the big, four-team December trade that brought Vinny Castilla to Tampa Bay. Kevin Stocker, ss, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 517 122 21 4 8 58 45 8 49 6 109 9 5 .236 .310 .338 .649 55 Prorated Tam 253 59 10 1 3 28 22 3 23 2 53 4 2 .233 .304 .316 .620 25 Actual Tam 254 76 11 2 1 39 27 4 24 0 41 9 7 .299 .369 .370 .739 35 Stocker's odd career has been a confusing mishmash of long slumps and occasional hot streaks. It's hard to tell what he'll do in any particular season, and 1999 was a typically odd campaign for him. Even batting over .300 for most of the year (he began to sag in July, when he eventually went down for the season with knee troubles), he's not a great offensive player, as he has little power or speed and doesn't walk enough to be a top-of-the-order hitter. If his defense were consistently good, Stocker would be valuable, but in 1999, he didn't field balls well and showed only average mobility, though his range was hampered by his knee problem. Kevin is expected back for the 2000 season, but the knee injury puts his future speed and range in question. A rehab attempt late in the '99 season failed to heal the inflammation in his left knee, and he underwent surgery on August 31 to repair defective cartilage under his left kneecap. David Lamb, ss/2b, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 67 18 3 0 0 8 6 1 5 0 8 0 0 .269 .324 .313 .638 7 Prorated Tam 119 32 5 0 0 14 10 1 8 0 14 0 0 .269 .320 .311 .631 12 Actual Tam 124 28 5 1 1 18 13 0 10 0 18 0 1 .226 .284 .306 .590 10 Lamb, a Rule 5 pick from Baltimore in the December 1998 draft, spent the year with Tampa Bay but couldn't bust his way into the lineup even after Kevin Stocker went down with a knee problem in July. The Rays gave Lamb just 24 at-bats from August 1 through the end of the season. He showed poor range and hands both at second base and shortstop in '99, and the Devil Rays waived him to the Mets in January. Wade Boggs, 3b, age 41AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 361 100 21 2 3 50 35 0 44 5 41 1 1 .277 .353 .371 .724 48 Prorated Tam 294 81 17 1 2 40 28 0 35 4 33 0 0 .276 .350 .361 .711 38 Actual Tam 292 88 14 1 2 40 29 0 38 2 23 1 0 .301 .377 .377 .754 41 In his final major-league campaign, Boggs did what he had done for most of the last decade: hit for average with no power, take some walks, and battle unsuccessfully to do a decent job at the hot corner. By the end of his career, Boggs was one of the game's least mobile players, and he really didn't belong in the lineup as often as he was penciled in. Boggs' August 7 home run was his last as a major-leaguer and also his 3,000th hit; he became the only member of the exclusive H3K club to hit a four-bagger to reach the milestone. Bobby Smith, 3b/2b, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 303 76 12 1 9 35 42 4 27 1 85 5 3 .251 .318 .386 .705 38 Prorated Tam 196 49 7 0 5 22 27 2 17 0 55 3 1 .250 .315 .362 .677 23 Actual Tam 199 36 4 1 3 18 19 1 16 0 64 4 4 .181 .244 .256 .501 11 The former Braves' prospect ran hot-and-cold at the plate in 1998, but last season he was just plain miserable. The Devil Rays sent him down in May and didn't bring him back until July; only in September (.262, one homer) could he be described as better than bad. While the wisdom of sending Smith down (with no clear replacement to play third) can be debated, Smith was truly awful at bat. His defense wasn't much of a bargain either; despite above-average range, a scatter arm led to far too many errors for comfort. Herb Perry, 3b/1b, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 68 18 3 0 2 8 11 2 5 1 9 1 0 .265 .333 .397 .730 9 Prorated Tam 216 57 9 0 6 25 35 6 15 3 28 3 0 .264 .329 .389 .718 27 Actual Tam 209 53 10 1 6 29 32 10 16 1 42 0 0 .254 .331 .397 .728 25 After several years of knee injuries, Perry came back and showed good range at third base in limited duty there. It's not clear that this can continue, as Herb wasn't an especially good first baseman back in his Cleveland days. Perry hasn't been healthy enough to swing the bat for most of the last three seasons, and his 1999 offensive performance was not encouraging. He hit .358 in April, but with no power, and slugged four homers in September, but batted only .205. Due to his poor performance, Perry was outrighted to AAA Durham in December, though he will get another chance to show he can contribute in spring training. Paul Sorrento, lf/1b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 351 89 19 0 20 42 55 3 41 4 96 1 1 .254 .334 .479 .813 56 Prorated Tam 306 77 16 0 17 36 48 2 35 3 83 0 0 .252 .330 .471 .801 48 Actual Tam 294 69 14 1 11 40 42 4 49 1 101 1 1 .235 .351 .401 .752 45 Moving the highly immobile Sorrento from first base to left field was another one of those goofy Devil Rays ideas that didn't work out: Who'd want to pitch for a club with this kind of defense? His range, of course, was well below-average. Sorrento didn't hit much, either, batting just .224 at home and .227 against right-handers. His bat appears to have slowed considerably in the last couple of years; his 101 strikeouts in just 294 at-bats last season are at a completely intolerable rate. Bubba Trammell, lf/rf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 212 54 13 0 14 34 39 1 22 1 48 2 2 .255 .325 .514 .839 35 Prorated Tam 293 74 17 0 19 47 53 1 30 1 66 2 2 .253 .322 .505 .827 48 Actual Tam 283 82 19 0 14 49 39 1 43 1 37 0 2 .290 .384 .505 .889 55 Trammell's 1999 performance was one of the few positive things about the Devil Rays' season -- and if a 14-homer performance by a 27-year-old left fielder is really a positive, send for help quickly. What Trammell did well last year was hit. He clubbed righties at a .309 clip, and didn't suffer a serious slump all year. Oddly, the right-handed power hitter didn't play much -- and didn't do a thing -- against lefties after batting .324 versus them in 1998. Bubba's range in the outfield was substantially improved from 1998, making him a veritable star among Tampa Bay's poor defensive outfielders. Whether that improvement real or just a fluke due to limited playing time remains to be seen. Still, warts and all, he hasn't proven conclusively yet that he can't help a good baseball team, so he deserves another shot to show what he can do. Quinton McCracken, lf/cf, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 636 174 32 6 7 91 63 2 55 1 121 27 13 .274 .330 .376 .706 80 Prorated Tam 147 40 7 1 1 21 14 0 12 0 28 6 3 .272 .325 .354 .679 17 Actual Tam 148 37 6 1 1 20 18 1 14 0 23 6 5 .250 .317 .324 .641 14 It was a rough season for "The Q." He sprained his right knee before spring training and started the season poorly. Then, just as he was getting back into game shape, he ripped up the knee on May 25 leaping into the Tropicana Field wall to catch a ball that went for a home run. Surgery to repair his ruptured anterior cruciate ligament followed shortly thereafter. McCracken isn't anything without his speed, and it's not clear whether he can return to his previous condition following this injury. Even at 100 percent physically, McCracken isn't more than an average offensive player anyway, since he hasn't much power and doesn't get on base that often. Danny Clyburn, lf/rf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 69 17 3 0 3 11 10 1 5 0 14 1 1 .246 .307 .420 .727 9 Prorated Tam 81 20 3 0 3 13 11 1 5 0 16 1 1 .247 .299 .395 .694 9 Actual Tam 81 16 4 0 3 8 5 1 7 0 21 0 0 .198 .270 .358 .628 7 Clyburn has big-league power, but there is little else to recommend him. In the little playing time that he received from manager Larry Rothschild early in 1999, he struck out often, didn't hit, and failed to knock anyone's socks off on defense. Clyburn played semi-regularly in April, got in a few at-bats during May, then spent the rest of the season back at AAA Durham, where he hit very poorly. Once thought of as a prospect, he needs to show that he's not washed up already Randy Winn, cf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 626 163 19 11 3 97 42 3 54 1 130 47 23 .260 .322 .340 .662 72 Prorated Tam 289 75 8 5 1 44 19 1 24 0 60 21 10 .260 .318 .332 .651 32 Actual Tam 303 81 16 4 2 44 24 1 17 0 63 9 9 .267 .307 .366 .673 33 Tampa Bay had hopes that Winn would develop into the multi-dimensional leadoff hitter that they need so badly but, in his second season, the speedster slumped badly. He showed no patience at bat, therefore compiling a very poor on-base average. His basestealing, just average as a rookie, was awful in '99, and he showed little extra-base sock. The Rays farmed him out for most of the final three months of the season after both his hitting and his attitude sagged. Winn has just average range for a center fielder, but does have a stronger arm than most at his position. He also has good hands, committing just one error last season. The way his career is going as an offensive player, Winn might have to hope his glove is good enough to keep him on the big-league roster for fifth-outfielder duty. Terrell Lowery, cf/lf, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 67 17 4 0 2 10 11 0 8 0 16 1 1 .254 .333 .403 .736 9 Prorated Tam 184 46 10 0 5 27 30 0 21 0 43 2 2 .250 .327 .386 .713 23 Actual Tam 185 48 15 1 2 25 17 1 19 0 53 0 2 .259 .330 .384 .714 24 The former Rangers' and Cubs' hopeful got a chance to play last season when injuries ripped apart Tampa Bay's outfield. While Lowery isn't good enough to be a regular, he has a little bit of sock and might hit well enough to be a serviceable reserve outfielder on a below-average team. After hitting .300 as a near-regular in July and August, he sagged sharply (.154, no power) in September, suggesting that the league may have caught up to him. Lowery's range in center field was not at all good in 1999, but he did show better mobility when used in left. Dave Martinez, rf/cf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 74 21 3 0 2 11 7 1 8 1 11 2 1 .284 .357 .405 .763 11 Prorated Tam 523 148 21 0 14 77 49 7 56 7 77 14 7 .283 .356 .403 .759 78 Actual Tam 514 146 25 5 6 79 66 5 60 3 76 13 6 .284 .361 .387 .748 77 Martinez did his usual job in 1999-filling in wherever necessary and doing a little bit of everything on offense. Recovering from a hamstring injury that limited him to 90 games in '98, he played a full schedule because the Rays needed a healthy body who could play both center and right field. While Martinez still doesn't hit lefties well enough to be an everyday player, the D-Rays had few options in 1999. He doesn't have much pop, but does get on base often enough and has good enough speed to be a nuisance. Unfortunately, his range in both center field and right field declined and was well below average last season. Jose Guillen, rf, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Pit 553 148 30 3 15 61 80 7 20 0 93 2 3 .268 .300 .414 .714 66 Prorated Pit 124 33 6 0 3 13 18 1 4 0 20 0 0 .266 .295 .387 .682 13 Actual Pit 120 32 6 0 1 18 18 0 10 1 21 1 0 .267 .321 .342 .662 12 Prorated Tam 175 47 9 0 4 19 25 2 6 0 29 0 0 .269 .299 .389 .687 20 Actual Tam 168 41 10 0 2 24 13 7 10 1 36 0 0 .244 .312 .339 .651 17 Prorated Tot 300 80 16 1 8 33 43 3 10 0 50 1 1 .267 .295 .407 .702 35 Actual Tot 288 73 16 0 3 42 31 7 20 2 57 1 0 .253 .315 .340 .656 28 Dumped by the Pirates, Guillen got a little bit of playing time with the Devil Rays but failed to impress after changing addresses. Guillen still swings at too many pitches outside the strike zone, a behavior that neutralizes his impressive power. He's still young enough to become a good hitter in the major leagues, but he badly needs to follow instructions. Of course, that recalcitrance to listen to his coaches is one of the big reasons he was dumped by Pittsburgh. Guillen's range in right field last year was slightly below par both in Pittsburgh and Tampa. However, he still has a cannon; AL runners haven't yet learned to fear his arm, so he threw out five runners in just 47 games after coming over to the Devil Rays. Jose Canseco, dh/lf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tam 629 145 29 0 47 100 115 7 72 5 178 23 11 .231 .314 .501 .815 98 Prorated Tam 442 102 20 0 33 70 80 4 50 3 125 16 7 .231 .313 .500 .813 69 Actual Tam 430 120 18 1 34 75 95 7 58 3 135 3 0 .279 .369 .563 .931 90 Canseco had another great power season in 1999 and, largely due to a resurgence against lefties, hit for a much higher average than expected. He had already connected for 28 homers by the end of June and appeared on the way to a great season before his back problems flared up. Eventually, Canseco sat out six weeks after undergoing back surgery for a herniated disk. His productivity was greatly diminished when he returned from the sidelines; his slugging dropped from .622 to .400 after his remarkably quick recovery. Never a good outfielder, Canseco has now been relegated almost exclusively to DH duty. He played six games in left field last season and showed very poor range. Key PitchersTampa Bay allowed the fourth-fewest home runs in the league last year, but still allowed the second highest number of runs in the AL. Why? Because the team's pitching staff easily led the league in walks and opponents on-base average. The Devil Rays went with a mix of experienced veterans and youngsters on their staff last year, but the combination didn't work. Bobby Witt was awful, as was Dave Eiland, which put even more pressure on the young guns of the staff. Ryan Rupe and Tony Saunders had their moments, but neither was capable of carrying a staff. Even first-year ace Rolando Arrojo couldn't keep it together following his outstanding rookie season of 1998. The club tried to trade Arrojo most of the second half of the season, an indication that the Devil Rays' brain trust thought the former Cuban defector was not likely to return to his previous form. Otherwise, why try to trade an at least dependable starter who's making far less than the going rate and isn't even eligible for arbitration till after the 2000 season? Bobby Witt, starter, age 35 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 6.34 27 27 5 10 0 143 175 28 59 86 .303 .885 Prorated Tam 6.34 34 34 6 13 0 180 220 35 74 108 .303 .885 Actual Tam 5.84 32 32 7 15 0 180 213 23 96 123 .304 .861 The Devil Rays signed Witt, who pitched for the Cardinals and Rangers in 1998, to plug gaps in their weak rotation. He pitched very well at the start of the season, but soon experienced the same control problems that have dogged him for most of his career. Continuing to use a fastball that has declined sharply in velocity, Witt gets his strikeouts but still has trouble locating his pitches precisely enough to be effective. What's truly troublesome about Witt's 1999 performance is that everybody lit him up -- lefties and righties, both at home and away. From August 1 until the end of the season, he was 1-9 with a 7.00 ERA. Time to try someone else. Wilson Alvarez, starter, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 4.12 32 32 12 10 0 192 179 22 90 157 .248 .732 Prorated Tam 4.12 27 27 10 8 0 163 151 19 76 133 .248 .732 Actual Tam 4.22 28 28 9 9 0 160 159 22 79 128 .260 .778 Alvarez' performance showed marked improvement in 1999. He lowered his ERA by half a run from the previous season despite an ever-higher league offensive standard, finishing last year with an ERA well below the AL average of 5.03 for starting pitching. However, Wilson was very inconsistent from start to start, rarely getting into a groove. August was an exception; he was 4-0 that month (with a 2.12 ERA) after coming off the disabled list with a sore triceps. He had also missed time earlier in the season with a sore shoulder, an injury that dogged him throughout the year. All in all, his '99 showing was quite good given his physical problems. One thing Alvarez must do in 2000 is improve against left-handers. Last year, they hit .276 and slugged a mighty .500 against him. Rolando Arrojo, starter, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 4.28 32 32 11 11 0 193 194 21 68 151 .264 .746 Prorated Tam 4.28 24 24 8 8 0 146 147 16 51 114 .264 .746 Actual Tam 5.18 24 24 7 12 0 141 162 23 60 107 .296 .881 Counted on to be the ace of a staff that had many young pitchers, the experienced Arrojo instead looked very little like the pitcher who was so impressive in 1998. Injuries were a big part of this decline; in the spring he was hampered by back problems, and he pitched very poorly in April and May. He then missed all of June and most of July after going on the disabled list with a sore right shoulder. When Arrojo returned to action in late July, he was a totally different pitcher, going 2-2 with a 2.21 ERA in August before backsliding in September. Left-handed batters were again very successful against Arrojo in 1999 but, unlike in '98, righties clubbed him as well. Obviously Arrojo has a lot of talent and can come back strong this season if healthy. The question is how serious his injuries really were and what the prognosis is for this year. The Devil Rays tried extremely hard to trade Rolando during the second half, raising a lot of eyebrows about whether his arm was really healthy. Ryan Rupe, starter, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Tam 4.55 24 24 8 9 0 142 136 17 57 97 .253 .765 After just 13 minor league games in 1998, the impressive rookie nearly made the Devil Rays' staff out of spring training. He eventually joined the rotation in May and stayed there for the remainder of the season. Ryan showed good stuff, poise, and the ability to make adjustments, although control was not always a strong point. Rupe did not show weakness against hitters from either side, a good sign for a young starting pitcher. Rupe started feeling soreness in his pitching shoulder in June and was shut down for the season late in September as a result. Larry Rothschild must resist the temptation to overuse his talented young righty, but most in Tampa Bay believe that Rupe will eventually be a #1 or #2 starter. Dave Eiland, starter, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 6.20 4 4 1 1 0 20 26 3 5 12 .317 .869 Prorated Tam 6.20 17 17 4 4 0 85 109 13 21 50 .317 .869 Actual Tam 5.60 21 15 4 8 0 80 98 8 27 53 .294 .784 It's anyone's guess what Eiland is doing in the majors. The evidence is clear that he can't pitch at this level. While Eiland is always successful at AAA, he's been getting out minor league hitters there for a decade now. When a pitcher is so much older than many of the hitters he's facing in the minors, his experience gives him an advantage that can result in impressive minor league stats. That doesn't mean he can pitch in The Show. Tony Saunders, starter, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 4.42 32 32 12 12 0 200 198 18 117 180 .261 .757 Prorated Tam 4.42 7 7 3 3 0 45 45 4 27 41 .261 .757 Actual Tam 6.43 9 9 3 3 0 42 53 6 29 30 .315 .924 Saunders suffered a broken arm while pitching last May 26, putting his career in jeopardy. He had not been pitching well before the injury, especially against right-handed hitters, but early-season struggles may be part of a pattern; Saunders was just 1-9 with a 4.66 ERA before the All-Star break in 1998. Saunders says he'll be back in 2000, but caution is obviously the watchword. Saunders was making his ninth start of the season when he snapped his left arm in a horrible scene. Dan Wheeler, starter, age 21Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Tam 5.87 6 6 0 4 0 31 35 7 13 32 .287 .856 Wheeler had some trouble during his initial big-league action last season, but the Devil Rays were just happy to see him in the major leagues. Wheeler held right-handed batters to just a .679 OPS, fanning 22 of them and walking just three in 59 at-bats. His strikeout rate bodes well for the future, but he's still awfully raw. Coming into 1999, he had just two years of pro experience, both in low Class A ball. Wheeler is likely to spend most of this season at AAA Durham, but the future looks bright for the 34th-round pick in the 1996 draft. Mickey Callaway, starter, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Tam 7.45 5 4 1 2 0 19 30 2 14 11 .357 .956 The unheralded Callaway, a finesse pitcher with no great pedigree, posted a 7-1 record in 15 starts at AAA Durham and was brought up in June. After two weeks, he went down with a hamstring injury and couldn't get on-track in limited action after his return. (In 33 at-bats, lefty swingers racked up a 1.278 OPS against him.) The Devil Rays outrighted Callaway back to AAA Durham following the season. Bryan Rekar, swing pitcher, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 5.82 4 4 1 2 0 22 25 4 7 14 .291 .836 Prorated Tam 5.82 18 18 5 9 0 99 114 18 32 64 .291 .836 Actual Tam 5.80 27 12 6 6 0 95 121 14 41 55 .313 .874 Like so many other young hurlers, Rekar was bombed out of Colorado. Unfortunately, he didn't pitch much better in 1998 or 1999 in Tampa Bay. While he was 4-1 as a middle reliever at the end of May, Rekar was struggling to keep his ERA under 5.00, a fight that he eventually lost after a promotion to the rotation. By July, Rekar had been shifted to the bullpen, and he pitched in AAA after mid-August. He continues to struggle with control and the home run ball, and last year allowed left-handed batters a .323 average with power. Bryan's career is clearly in deep trouble, and he's close to falling out of the league despite his talent. Mike Duvall, middle reliever, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 4.87 70 0 5 5 1 94 109 8 43 61 .295 .818 Prorated Tam 4.87 31 0 2 2 0 42 49 4 19 27 .295 .818 Actual Tam 4.05 40 0 1 1 0 40 46 5 27 18 .293 .879 The Devil Rays promoted Duvall three times during the season. Aside from the pressure of being treated like a yo-yo, he also was disabled in June with a strained oblique muscle. While his performance doesn't look all that impressive, he was far more effective when he received regular work. In August and September, Duvall was very effective in 17 appearances. However, Duvall has a couple of black marks. Mike experienced control problems in 1999, and he was also racked by lefty hitters last year, allowing them a 1.002 OPS. Unless he straightens that out, it will be difficult for him to find any role other than as a frequent flier between AAA and the majors. Scott Aldred, middle reliever, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 6.75 53 0 1 2 0 33 46 7 15 19 .329 .963 Prorated Tam 6.75 38 0 1 1 0 24 33 5 11 14 .329 .963 Actual Tam 5.18 37 0 3 2 0 24 26 1 14 22 .274 .764 Prorated Phi 6.75 47 0 1 2 0 29 41 6 13 17 .329 .963 Actual Phi 3.90 29 0 1 1 1 32 33 1 15 19 .277 .715 Prorated Tot 6.75 85 0 2 3 0 53 73 11 24 30 .329 .963 Actual Tot 4.45 66 0 4 3 1 57 59 2 29 41 .276 .737 After more than a decade trying to find himself, Aldred landed in the Devil Rays' bullpen in 1998 and was surprisingly effective. However, last year he slipped back to his usual ineffectiveness and was moved to the Phillies in July. Aldred was hit hard by right-handers last year for Tampa and walked too many hitters, but was slightly more effective after joining Philadelphia. He remains marginal and will probably always be a tenth or eleventh pitcher on a weak staff. Julio Santana, middle reliever, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 5.25 32 32 10 12 0 185 210 23 84 95 .288 .813 Prorated Tam 5.25 10 10 3 4 0 58 66 7 26 30 .288 .813 Actual Tam 7.32 22 5 1 4 0 55 66 10 32 34 .300 .931 The Rangers ran out of patience with the hard-throwing but wild right-hander, and the Devil Rays decided to take a chance on him in 1998. However, even Tampa Bay couldn't see the way to giving Santana any regular work, and dumped him to Boston last July. The Red Sox immediately sent him to AAA. While in Tampa Bay, Santana missed three weeks with a sore shoulder and was terrible when healthy. He allowed righties a .331 average with power, and lefties (who hit .265) slugged .551 against him. Jim Mecir, middle reliever, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 3.33 70 0 6 3 3 100 90 10 38 96 .242 .690 Prorated Tam 3.33 15 0 1 1 1 22 20 2 8 21 .242 .690 Actual Tam 2.61 17 0 0 1 0 21 15 0 14 15 .205 .607 Following an effective 1998 season, Mecir was pitching well in 1999 when he tripped during batting practice and fractured his pitching elbow. That finished Mecir for the year. Jim is expected to return healthy this spring. Effective against both left and right-handed batters, Mecir has excellent sink on his fastball and gets ground balls consistently, making him a useful guy to call upon with runners on base and less than two out. Norm Charlton, middle reliever, age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 5.51 13 0 1 1 0 16 19 2 11 14 .297 .856 Prorated Tam 5.51 39 0 3 3 0 49 57 6 33 42 .297 .856 Actual Tam 4.44 42 0 2 3 0 51 49 4 36 45 .257 .775 While it's too early to call Charlton a baseball Rasputin, he does continue to outlast his detractors. After two early-season appearances, the veteran reliever was sent to AAA. On May 30, he was brought back to Tampa Bay to stay. The oft-injured lefty pitched well in after his recall before falling apart in September (9.28 ERA, 18 hits in 10.2 frames). Poor control, his late-career bugaboo, again reared its head in 1999, which kept Charlton from assuming a more important role. In addition, for the second consecutive season, Charlton was more effective against right-handed batters than lefties, which is another reason it's difficult to count on him. Rick White, middle reliever, age 30Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 5.44 30 0 2 3 0 51 61 7 17 30 .299 .828 Prorated Tam 5.44 64 0 4 6 0 110 130 15 36 64 .299 .828 Actual Tam 4.08 63 1 5 3 0 108 132 8 38 81 .304 .784 Continuing his rise from the ashes of an undistinguished career, White -- formerly a Pittsburgh prospect -- took on the heavy lifting for the Devil Rays in 1999. Aside from missing a few days in July due to dehydration, White was the staff's unsung workhorse. He finished second on the club in appearances and was fifth in innings despite making just one start. A classic sinker/slider pitcher, White allowed opponents from both sides of the dish to hit over .300, but was pretty stingy with the walks and home runs. He ratcheted up his strikeout rate sharply in 1999 and was quite effective at Tropicana (4-1, 3.91). Esteban Yan, setup pitcher, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 4.61 53 0 4 4 0 70 75 11 33 64 .273 .802 Prorated Tam 4.61 48 0 4 4 0 63 67 10 30 58 .273 .802 Actual Tam 5.90 50 1 3 4 0 61 77 8 32 46 .326 .896 After a solid 1998 campaign as a middle reliever, Yan struggled all through 1999, not pitching well early or late. He missed a month of action at mid-season with a sore shoulder, but the injury bothered him all year. Esteban, a converted outfielder, has never been especially durable. If his shoulder can hold up, Yan is valuable to the Devil Rays. Unfortunately, history is not on his side. Albie Lopez, setup pitcher, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 4.68 40 0 3 3 0 67 75 10 29 55 .284 .810 Prorated Tam 4.68 37 0 3 3 0 63 70 9 27 52 .284 .810 Actual Tam 4.64 51 0 3 2 1 64 66 8 24 37 .263 .711 Lopez, whose top fastball used to be in the class of teammate Roberto Hernandez, took a step backward in 1999. A ribcage injury that landed him on the DL in May, hampered him for most of last season, costing him velocity and impairing his follow-through. It took Lopez a couple of months to get back on track. By September, however, he had found his 1998 form. In 17 innings, he fanned 12 hitters, walked four, and allowed just one earned run. So long as he's healthy, Lopez should be effective in a setup role for years to come. Roberto Hernandez, closer, age 34Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tam 2.80 70 0 5 5 36 74 62 6 38 67 .229 .651 Prorated Tam 2.80 71 0 5 5 37 75 63 6 39 68 .229 .651 Actual Tam 3.07 72 0 2 3 43 73 68 1 33 69 .245 .625 The former White Sox' closer had one of the better seasons of any big-league reliever in 1999. For the second straight season, he did not pitch well in May, but Hernandez was nearly untouchable the rest of the way. He was far more effective in home games than in 1998, which was reflective of Tropicana not playing like a big hitters' park in 1999. While Roberto continues to struggle with walks, he keeps the ball down: one home run in 73 innings is a spectacular total in the year of the booming bats, showing that the veteran's splitter is still one of the best offerings of any pitcher in the game. There aren't many relievers in the game more dependable than Hernandez, and plenty of teams would love to have him. Rumors out of Tampa Bay have him going to a richer or better club sometime in the 2000 season. Of course, that same rumor had circulated for much of the past two years as well. OutlookIt wasn't enough of a disappointment that the Devil Rays played good ball for the first two months before falling to the bottom of their division. When the Arizona Diamondbacks won the NL West in 1999, it put a ton of additional pressure on the Tampa Bay organization to turn the expansion club into an instant contender. So the D-Rays tried to imitate Arizona's philosophy by signing several free agents to expensive, multi-year contracts. GM Chuck LaMar and the rest of the organization are counting on Greg Vaughn, Vinny Castilla, Juan Guzman and the others they imported having the same kind of effect in 2000 that Randy Johnson, Matt Williams, Steve Finley and Jay Bell had in Arizona in 1999. Several players, including at least a couple of the free agents, will have to have career years if the Devil Rays hope to catch the Red Sox for a potential Wild Card berth. Stranger things have happened but, if Tampa Bay is to make a run at the postseason, nearly everything will have to go right. The core of the everyday lineup -- Jose Canseco, Greg Vaughn, Fred McGriff and Vinny Castilla -- is going to have to stay healthy and productive the entire season. Another key to the season could be Jose Guillen, a tremendously talented but troubled youngster. If he can provide a solid fifth bat in the lineup and good defense in right field, the D-Rays should win more games. Wilson Alvarez and Juan Guzman are fine pitchers, but the key to the starting staff will be Steve Trachsel. He always has had the potential to win 15-18 games, but things totally fell apart for him last season. Instead of having a strong year to help his free-agent negotiations, he lost 18 games and had to settle for a contract that will pay him only about a million dollars plus incentives. If he can rebound to his 1996 (13-9) or 1998 (15-8) levels, the team could have enough pitching to stay in the hunt for a Wild Card berth throughout the summer. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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