Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Texas Rangers By Jon Dunkle This article takes a look at how the Texas Rangers did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 886 945 Runs allowed 808 859 Run Margin 82 86 Wins 87 95 Pythagorean wins 88 89 Placement 2nd 1st The supposition before the season began was that the Rangers would score a lot of runs and allow a lot of runs. They did both to a greater extent than expected. The offense finished second only to the Indians in runs scored as Texas led the majors in batting average and slugging percentage. The pitching staff, composed of an erratic rotation and a previously unheralded bullpen, allowed the second highest slugging percentage in the American League, but was not bad enough to prevent the powerful Rangers from clinching a weak Western Division. A dismal performance against the Yankees in the playoffs and concern about the signability of star Juan Gonzalez on a team which had the second highest payroll in 1999 prompted the Rangers to deal Gonzalez to the Tigers for a host of young talent. The Rangers find themselves in an interesting position of simultaneously building for the future and trying to remain competitive for the 2000 season. Key Position PlayersUp and down the order the Rangers had guys who could wallop the ball. The Rangers won 36 games by five runs or more, the most in the majors. Six players hit 20 or more home runs. They had three players -- Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, and Rafael Palmeiro -- who were contenders for the MVP award and one -- Rodriguez -- who was selected as the MVP of the American League. Even the weak link in the lineup, centerfielder Tom Goodwin, scored 63 runs in just 109 games. All the runs in the world couldn't get the Rangers to the top, however, and there will be number of new faces in 2000. Todd Zeile, Mark McLemore, Goodwin, and Gonzalez will be replaced by youngsters Mike Lamb, Frank Catalanotto, Ruben Mateo, and Gape Kapler, respectively, as the Rangers hope that talent can overcome experience. The 2000 replacements have a grand total of 1088 at bats in the major leagues, while 17,184 at bats of experience were lost by Zeile et al. Ivan Rodriguez, c, age 27 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 514 161 34 3 17 83 73 5 30 5 74 6 1 .313 .355 .490 .845 86 Prorated Tex 586 183 38 3 19 94 83 5 34 5 84 6 1 .312 .354 .485 .838 96 Actual Tex 600 199 29 1 35 116 113 1 24 2 64 25 12 .332 .356 .558 .914 102 The American League MVP. Rodriguez has been the premiere catcher in the majors for many years but it was a career year at the plate and his new added dimension of speed that helped push him into MVP status. Rodriguez worked during the offseason in 1998 with star Puerto Rico pole vaulter Edgar Diaz. They worked together on his running to try and get him to be more efficient and generate a quick start. This, in part, helped him steal a career high 25 bases and score 116 runs. But the training didn't help him get out of the batter's box any quicker. Rodriguez led the league with 31 double plays. Greg Zaun, c, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 89 22 5 1 2 9 10 1 11 1 14 1 0 .247 .337 .393 .730 12 Prorated Tex 92 22 5 1 2 9 10 1 11 1 14 1 0 .239 .327 .380 .707 12 Actual Tex 93 23 2 1 1 12 12 0 10 0 7 1 0 .247 .314 .323 .637 10 Zaun held one of the easiest jobs in baseball in 1999. Rodriguez rarely misses games to injury or rest, so Zaun got to sit back and enjoy the ride to the playoffs. He'll likely see more playing time in 2000 as he was dealt to Detroit in the Gonzalez trade. Bill Haselman will reprise the role as Rodriguez's backup, a position he held in 1998. Rafael Palmeiro, 1b, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 524 151 29 2 37 89 109 5 66 7 82 7 3 .288 .370 .563 .933 110 Prorated Tex 588 169 32 2 41 99 122 5 74 7 92 7 3 .287 .369 .558 .927 122 Actual Tex 565 183 30 1 47 96 148 3 97 14 69 2 3 .324 .420 .630 1.050 153 How bad are Palmeiro's knees? He reached base 283 times, including 47 homers, for one of the most powerful lineups put together, and managed to score under 100 runs. You don't need good knees to hit, though, and Palmeiro certainly did that, finishing 10th in batting average, ninth in OBP, and 2nd in slugging. You also apparently don't need good knees to field as Palmeiro took home the Gold Glove award at first, despite playing just 28 games at first base. He will face tough competition for the award next year as Don Mattingly committed fewer errors in just about the same amount of playing time as Palmeiro had. [TT: After the 1993 season, Palmeiro was allowed to leave Texas as a free agent because the Rangers wanted Will Clark's fiery attitude in the lineup and in the clubhouse instead. Five years later, the Orioles let Palmeiro go so they could replace him with the same Will Clark. In the six seasons since he was replaced by Clark the first time, Palmeiro has 31 more doubles, 152 more homers, 275 more RBI, and 92 more walks than Clark, and he's played much better defense, too. If these guys had been traded for each other, it would go down as one of the more lopsided deals in history. Since the moves involved free agency, this linkage may soon be lost to our memories.] Lee Stevens, 1b, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 446 120 23 3 25 64 76 1 35 4 105 1 2 .269 .322 .502 .825 69 Prorated Tex 530 142 27 3 29 76 90 1 41 4 124 1 2 .268 .321 .494 .815 80 Actual Tex 517 146 31 1 24 76 81 0 52 10 132 2 3 .282 .344 .485 .829 81 The slugging Stevens set a personal best for playing time in 1999 largely due to Palmeiro's knees and the injury to Mike Simms. In the past Stevens has been used primarily in platoon situations, but he showed he could hit lefties enough to keep a full time job, hitting .304 with a .398 OBP. Stevens also played a solid first base, although not to the point where he was considered one of the best in the league as Rafael Palmeiro suggested after Palmeiro won the Gold Glove. Despite the breakout season by Stevens, the Rangers looked for a first baseman in the offseason. But to find one that is better than Stevens would require the Rangers to give up a lot in return. Mark McLemore, 2b, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 568 139 21 2 3 86 52 2 93 2 83 15 7 .245 .351 .305 .655 67 Prorated Tex 556 136 20 1 2 84 50 1 91 1 81 14 6 .245 .350 .295 .645 63 Actual Tex 566 155 20 7 6 105 45 0 83 2 79 16 8 .274 .363 .366 .729 82 Just when it looked like Mark McLemore's career was nearing the end, he found a second wind and put together one of his best seasons. He set new career highs in triples, home runs, and runs. The quick McLemore is tough to double up and he has the speed to take extra bases on hits. He's never been a selective base stealer and his 67% success rate was close to his career mark of 69%. The Rangers, looking towards saving a buck and adding youth, sent him packing at the end of the year. He'll be in Seattle in 2000. Luis Alicea, 2b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 63 16 3 1 1 10 7 1 9 0 11 2 1 .254 .351 .381 .732 10 Prorated Tex 164 41 7 2 2 26 18 2 23 0 28 5 2 .250 .346 .354 .699 23 Actual Tex 164 33 10 0 3 33 17 0 28 0 32 2 1 .201 .316 .317 .633 18 The Rangers want to contend in 2000. They may start Luis Alicea at second base. Quite the paradox, that. Versatility and experience is all Alicea brings. He is fine for a defensive replacement but he lacks the offensive skills to be a productive player, even as an occasional spot starter. Todd Zeile, 3b, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 493 133 24 1 20 75 82 4 66 4 85 4 3 .270 .357 .444 .801 79 Prorated Tex 568 153 27 1 23 86 94 4 76 4 97 4 3 .269 .356 .442 .798 91 Actual Tex 588 172 41 1 24 80 98 4 56 3 94 1 2 .293 .354 .488 .842 98 I've always thought Todd Zeile was overrated. He is a very error-prone defensive player and usually is unspectacular at the plate. After a career year (do you see a pattern here?) which saw Zeile make personal bests in hits, doubles, batting average, and slugging percentage, the suitors came knocking. Zeile will join the Mets, his eighth team, and play first base. This may be the signing that keeps the Mets from being National League champs. Royce Clayton, ss, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 522 137 31 4 8 80 52 3 40 3 88 25 11 .262 .316 .383 .699 61 Prorated Tex 472 124 28 3 7 72 47 2 36 2 79 22 9 .263 .315 .379 .694 54 Actual Tex 465 134 21 5 14 69 52 4 39 1 100 8 6 .288 .346 .445 .792 72 Royce Clayton is a difficult player to have on your team. He has a lot of good aspects about his game but they all have their negative counterpart. Clayton is fast, but he strikes out too much and rarely walks. He set career bests in batting average, slugging, on base percentage, and home runs, but those numbers were anomalies. He has great range in the field but commits too many errors. He also had shoulder problems which kept him out of about thirty games. He's not very judicious on the basepaths either and his steals dropped as his home runs rose. Depending on what you want from your shortstop, Clayton may or may not be able to give it to you. But until Dransfeldt starts hitting better than Luis Alicea, Clayton will be the starting shortstop. Kelly Dransfeldt, ss, age 24AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Tex 53 10 1 0 1 3 5 0 3 0 12 0 0 .189 .232 .264 .496 3 Can Dransfeldt hit better than Alicea? Absolutely not. He has a little more pop but struggles to make contact and never walks. He's built like Cal Ripken but unlike the Ripken of yesteryear, his size poses a barrier for him defensively. All in all, there's not much reason to believe that he will have much of a major league career. Jon Shave, ss, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 66 16 3 0 0 9 6 2 5 0 11 1 1 .242 .311 .288 .599 6 Prorated Tex 73 17 3 0 0 9 6 2 5 0 12 1 1 .233 .296 .274 .570 6 Actual Tex 73 21 4 0 0 10 9 2 5 0 17 1 0 .288 .350 .342 .692 10 The Rangers love his versatility and he will likely make the team as a utility infielder. He doesn't offer much offensively. In the field, he is steady and makes plays consistently. Rusty Greer, lf, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 568 170 33 3 17 98 92 3 73 2 87 4 3 .299 .378 .458 .836 101 Prorated Tex 578 173 33 3 17 99 93 3 74 2 88 4 3 .299 .378 .455 .833 102 Actual Tex 556 167 41 3 20 107 101 5 96 2 67 2 2 .300 .405 .493 .898 114 Greer went through a bad spell early in the season which resulted in an uncharacteristic first half -- .268 AVG and a .423 SPC. Had it not been for that, Greer might have received some MVP consideration. Greer is interesting in that he makes platoon differentials meaningless. His OBP against lefties was .411 compared to a .403 against righthanders. Over his career he has shown little difference in his splits. There has been talk about making him a leadoff hitter in 2000, a role, given his on base percentage and his lack of platoon differentials, in which he should excel. But there has also been talk about putting the speedier Royce Clayton there, despite his anemic on-base percentage, which just goes to show how slow baseball is to adjust to even the most intuitive things. Tom Goodwin, cf, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 608 163 19 4 1 105 37 3 64 0 102 52 22 .268 .339 .317 .657 73 Prorated Tex 399 107 12 2 0 69 24 1 42 0 67 34 14 .268 .339 .308 .647 46 Actual Tex 405 105 12 6 3 63 33 0 40 0 61 39 11 .259 .324 .341 .664 49 Probably the departed Ranger who will be missed the least. Rookie sensation Ruben Mateo seems ready and Goodwin, a fast outfielder with average defensive ability, will get to roam the spacious outfield at Coors Field. What do you get when you put Tom Goodwin in Coors Field? An average Marquis Grissom season with a bunch more stolen bases. Ruben Mateo, cf, age 21AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 70 19 5 0 2 11 11 2 2 0 9 2 1 .271 .307 .429 .735 9 Prorated Tex 118 32 8 0 3 18 18 3 3 0 15 3 1 .271 .306 .415 .721 15 Actual Tex 122 29 9 1 5 16 18 1 4 0 28 3 0 .238 .268 .451 .719 15 The bad news is that Ruben Mateo is a candidate for Rookie of the Year in 2000. This is bad news because he was also a candidate in 1999 but was so banged up, he didn't amass enough playing time to lose his rookie eligibility. Injuries have been the largest hindrance to Mateo's development. In 1999 alone he missed games from a bruised shoulder, a pulled groin, and a broken wrist. Right now he is very reminiscent of a young Eric Davis. He is a five tool player with his arm maybe being the best of the five. He covers ground well in the field and runs the basepaths well. His power right now is more doubles power but he should develop into a 30-homer player. Like Davis, his ability to achieve star status will be determined largely by his ability to be in the lineup everyday. Scarborough Green, cf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 70 14 2 0 0 9 4 0 5 0 15 2 2 .200 .253 .229 .482 4 Prorated Tex 13 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .154 .154 .154 .308 0 Actual Tex 13 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 .308 .357 .308 .665 1 Don't let the high average fool you. Scarborough Green can't hit. Green is one of those players the Cardinals liked working with in the late eighties and early nineties (Green was signed in 1993 by St. Louis). Take a guy who runs like the wind and teach him how to hit. The next time a team succeeds with that strategy will be the first. Green is very fast and is a really good fielder. But with Mateo and Kapler in the outfield in 2000, a defensive replacement is not of great importance to the Rangers. Juan Gonzalez, rf, age 29AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 578 173 38 2 43 98 143 5 41 9 118 1 1 .299 .346 .595 .941 115 Prorated Tex 574 171 37 1 42 97 142 4 40 8 117 0 0 .298 .343 .585 .929 112 Actual Tex 562 183 36 1 39 114 128 4 51 7 105 3 4 .326 .378 .601 .980 128 Gonzalez is a fascinating individual to observe when it comes to attitude and thinking about the future. Watch him with his teammates before a game and you see a fun-loving individual. Check him out after a game and you'll see someone who enjoys his family and friends (he left the team during the season to give blood to his daughter who was undergoing a surgery). He can be friendly to fans. But then you look at the flip side and you see a man who has been divorced three times. You see someone who sat out an exhibition game because his pants were not to his liking. He refused to play in the All-Star game in 1999 because he was not elected to be a starter. He also has had a history of minor injuries. Gonzalez, after leading the league in home runs in 1992 and 1993, hit the weight room for a power boost. The result was 125 missed games over the next two seasons, largely due to pulled muscles. How do you know what you're getting from Gonzalez? That is something the Tigers will have to figure out if they hope to justify the amount of talent they surrendered to Gonzalez for what may be one year of his services. A pretty good indicator is to scope him out when he arrives at spring training. If you could mistake him for a ballet dancer, you can expect good things from Gonzalez. The lean, limber Gonzalez is the one that puts up numbers like he has the past few years, not the overmuscular or overweight Gonzalez. I'm a little concerned at this point, however, that he has put on some weight during the offseason. Look at Gonzalez in spring training and I guarantee you will get a good idea on how he will perform in 2000. Roberto Kelly, rf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 284 86 13 3 11 45 45 4 14 0 51 3 3 .303 .342 .486 .828 45 Prorated Tex 297 89 13 3 11 47 47 4 14 0 53 3 3 .300 .338 .475 .812 46 Actual Tex 290 87 17 1 8 41 37 5 21 0 57 6 1 .300 .355 .448 .804 47 One of the more underrated players in the league. Kelly is a productive hitter who can play all three outfield positions. He is best suited for a platoon role but hits righties enough to merit facing them from time to time. He will likely begin 2000 as part of Joe Torre's leftfield by committee for the Yankees but may end up platooning in right with Paul O'Neill. Mike Simms, rf, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tex 130 35 8 0 9 21 28 2 14 0 33 0 0 .269 .347 .538 .885 24 Prorated Tex 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 Actual Tex 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 1 Simms missed virtually all of the 1999 season with a torn Achilles tendon. He is a tremendous power hitter who jumps all over pitchers' mistakes. Simms will be looked upon to spell Kapler on occasion in 2000. Key PitchersInterestingly, despite an infield that committed quite a few errors, the Rangers allowed the fewest unearned runs in the majors (50). Nonetheless, the Rangers' top two starters, Aaron Sele and Rick Helling, had ERAs in 1999 that were right at the league average. The rest of the rotation was awful but was helped immensely by a bullpen that compiled a league high 72 holds. The Rangers, realizing that the rotation was the weakest portion of the team, went out into the free agent market and got lefties Kenny Rogers and Darren Oliver. In the Gonzalez trade, the team also acquired southpaw Justin Thompson for the rotation and budding superstar Francisco Cordero for the already daunting bullpen. The bullpen, led by closer John Wetteland, was nearly unstoppable in the first half. The reliance on the bullpen took its toll on the pen as their numbers dropped off after the All-Star break. Six pitchers appeared in 50 or more games for the Rangers in 1999, a total matched only by the Indians. Take a gander at how the ERAs lagged in the second half. All-Star Break
Before After Difference
Munoz 3.41 4.91 1.50
Venafro 2.84 3.46 0.62
Wetteland 3.96 3.34 -0.62
Zimmerman 0.86 4.58 3.72
Crabtree 3.62 3.31 -0.31
Patterson 4.38 7.71 3.33
Aaron Sele, starter, age 29 (as of July 1, 1999)Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 4.96 32 32 10 13 0 201 226 19 81 155 .286 .788 Prorated Tex 4.96 33 33 10 13 0 207 232 20 83 159 .286 .788 Actual Tex 4.79 33 33 18 9 0 205 244 21 70 186 .293 .802 Sele led the team in victories in 1999 after finishing second to Rick Helling in 1998 with 19. Sele was acquired from the Red Sox after the 1997 season. As a Boston prospect, Sele relied on a vicious curveball to retire opposing hitters. Arm troubles reduced the effectiveness of the curveball but it is still Sele's main pitch. If he has trouble throwing it for strikes, Sele needs to hope for a win via a slugfest. Sele has been helped immensely by having the Rangers offense providing support. He will pitch for Seattle in 2000 where the Griffey-less Mariners will likely reduce Sele back to a .500 pitcher. Rick Helling, starter, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 4.41 32 32 12 12 0 206 201 28 84 170 .254 .753 Prorated Tex 4.41 34 34 13 13 0 217 212 29 88 179 .254 .753 Actual Tex 4.84 35 35 13 11 0 219 228 41 85 131 .272 .837 Helling was a 20-game winner in 1998, his first full season as a major league starter. He pitched 200 innings again in 1999, with different results. He led the league in home runs allowed and saw his strikeouts drop while his ERA and baserunners per nine innings rose. One has to wonder if his sudden conversion to a 200-inning workhorse isn't causing him to wear down. For the first 90 pitches of a game, Helling held opponents to a respectable .257 batting average, .327 OBP, and .466 SLG. From pitch 91 on, batters hit .326 with a .382 OBP and a .604 SLG. Given these results, the bad news for the Rangers is that Helling throws a lot of pitches. He's not the kind of guy who tries to get batters to put the ball in play. John Burkett, starter, age 34Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 5.07 32 32 10 12 0 192 232 21 44 135 .302 .795 Prorated Tex 5.07 25 25 8 9 0 151 183 17 35 106 .302 .795 Actual Tex 5.62 30 25 9 8 0 147 184 18 46 96 .307 .832 Shoulder problems hampered Burkett in 1999. He was ineffective after coming off the disable list in May and was used briefly in the bullpen until a handful of Rangers starters went down with injuries. Burkett joins the Devil Rays for 2000 but at age 34, seasons like last one will probably be the norm from here out. Mike Morgan, starter , age 39Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 5.96 34 4 4 6 0 83 100 13 27 44 .302 .867 Prorated Tex 5.96 59 7 7 10 0 143 173 22 47 76 .302 .867 Actual Tex 6.24 34 25 13 10 0 140 184 25 48 61 .323 .921 Morgan was to work in long relief to begin 1999. But Esteban Loaiza looked as if he forgot how to pitch in spring training, so when the season started, Morgan found himself as the fifth starter. Despite his lack of effectiveness, the Rangers kept him in the rotation until September due to the number of injuries that struck the rotation. Morgan will try to pitch for his thirteenth major league team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, in 2000. Unless a bunch of players fall to injury early on, it is unlikely that Morgan, now 40, will find a role on the team. [TT: Morgan broke in as an 18-year-old phenom during the Carter administration, then waited until Bush (the elder) was in office before posting his first winning season -- 14-10 in 1991. His career mark is now 134-180, or 46 games under .500. There are only 16 pitchers in history who finished their career more than 46 games under .500). Esteban Loaiza, starter, age 27Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 5.34 27 27 8 10 0 160 191 23 47 95 .299 .820 Prorated Tex 5.34 20 20 6 7 0 118 141 17 35 70 .299 .820 Actual Tex 4.56 30 15 9 5 0 120 128 10 40 77 .275 .735 "How a Car Door Got My Career Back on Track" may well be the title of Loaiza's autobiography, if he decides to write one. Loaiza showed up in spring training with a spot in the rotation locked up. It wasn't his to lose. He wasn't fighting it out with someone for the final spot. The spot was his. Loaiza then looked horrible all spring long and lost it. He pitched in the bullpen and was horrible there, compiling a 7.31 ERA before the defining moment of his 1999 season. In May, Loaiza shut his hand in a car door, breaking it badly. He underwent surgery and was out until July. Whether the broken hand was a wake up call or doctors gave him a bionic hand or the time away from the game was the source of the change, Loaiza returned a new pitcher. He found his way back into the rotation and he went 9-4 with a 3.72 ERA the rest of the season. Loaiza kept the ball down in the second half and if he can do that, he will have continued success in 2000. Mark Clark, starter, age 31Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 5.37 32 32 10 13 0 206 246 28 53 135 .298 .817 Prorated Tex 5.37 13 13 4 5 0 81 97 11 21 53 .298 .817 Actual Tex 8.60 15 15 3 7 0 74 103 17 34 44 .329 .980 The beleaguered Mark Clark suffered another setback in 1999. After continued elbow soreness, Clark had it checked out. Doctors discovered a torn ligament and his season was finished. Clark is a competitor and his belief is that he will be back good as new in 2000 and be part of the Rangers rotation. Ryan Glynn, starter, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Tex 7.24 13 10 2 4 0 55 71 10 35 39 .316 .933 Glynn isn't as highly regarded as some of the other young Rangers pitchers despite being a fourth round pick in 1995 and progressing well. He has done well in the minors and may pitch for the Rangers in some capacity in 2000. He got the call in 2000 primarily because he was one of the few minor league pitchers who was doing well at the upper levels. Jeff Fassero, starter , age 36Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Sea 4.13 32 32 12 12 0 214 212 27 61 166 .260 .738 Prorated Sea 4.13 24 24 9 9 0 160 158 20 46 124 .260 .738 Actual Sea 7.38 30 24 4 14 0 139 188 34 73 101 .321 .969 Prorated Tex 4.13 3 3 1 1 0 20 19 2 6 15 .260 .738 Actual Tex 5.71 7 3 1 0 0 17 20 1 10 13 .286 .770 Prorated Tot 4.13 27 27 10 10 0 179 178 23 51 139 .260 .738 Actual Tot 7.20 37 27 5 14 0 156 208 35 83 114 .318 .948 The lefty Fassero was brought in for some help at the end of the season against lefthanded hitters and to start against teams like the Yankees who do poorly against southpaws. Fassero has seen better days, none of them in 1999, and he will try and make one last stand for the Red Sox in 2000. Corey Lee, starter, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Tex 27.00 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 .400 1.500 Lee's pitching is still a little unrefined. He stopped being a thrower last season and has turned into more of a pitcher. At least a half season at AAA is likely in order. Matt Perisho, starter-reliever, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 6.38 4 4 1 1 0 18 23 2 11 13 .311 .875 Prorated Tex 6.38 2 2 0 0 0 8 10 1 5 6 .311 .875 Actual Tex 2.61 4 1 0 0 0 10 8 0 2 17 .211 .592 Perisho has had a history of arm troubles while in the Ranger and Angel systems. He is a hard thrower who the Rangers would like to see in the bullpen if Munoz or Venafro have problems or become injured. Doug Davis, mopup-starter, age 23Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Tex 33.75 2 0 0 0 0 3 12 3 0 3 .600 1.900 Davis has a shot at making the Rangers rotation in 2000 with a good spring. Although this would add yet another lefty to the rotation, it's something the Rangers wouldn't necessarily mind. Davis has a wide assortment of pitchers and knows how to pitch. With an experienced catcher like Rodriguez, it's not a longshot that he will have a good spring. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League after 1999 where he was one of the top pitchers. Jonathan Johnson, mopup, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 6.34 23 0 2 3 0 38 46 6 16 26 .301 .862 Prorated Tex 6.34 3 0 0 0 0 5 6 1 2 3 .301 .862 Actual Tex 15.00 1 0 0 0 0 3 9 0 2 3 .529 1.160 Once a top prospect for the Rangers, Johnson has not shown an ability to succeed at the AAA level, despite spending parts of four seasons there. He has also had problems with injuries. With some of the younger and better arms the Rangers have, his making the majors for any length of time is unlikely. Danny Kolb, long relief, age 24Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Tex 4.65 16 0 2 1 0 31 33 2 15 15 .268 .694 Another former prospect who has had troubles. Control has been Kolb's biggest problem. He will get a full year in AAA to see if he can still develop into a major league pitcher. Tim Crabtree, long relief, age 29Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 4.34 70 0 5 5 2 95 109 7 38 69 .291 .768 Prorated Tex 4.34 46 0 3 3 1 62 71 5 25 45 .291 .768 Actual Tex 3.46 68 0 5 1 0 65 71 4 18 54 .280 .714 The Rangers acquired Crabtree from the Blue Jays after a season of injuries in 1997 and he's been an important part of the Ranger bullpen ever since. Crabtree is an aggressive hurler who comes right at hitters with his fastball. His control improved dramatically in 1999, largely because he was able to get ahead in the count early. With the emergence of the bullpen in 1999, Crabtree was not required to work multiple innings. As a result, he ended up more of a right-handed specialist. More than the other pitchers in the bullpen, he has the durability to be a long reliever. Danny Patterson, long relief, age 28Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 4.50 53 0 4 4 0 74 81 9 23 55 .281 .787 Prorated Tex 4.50 46 0 3 3 0 64 70 8 20 48 .281 .787 Actual Tex 5.67 53 0 2 0 0 60 77 5 19 43 .304 .831 A couple of years ago, Patterson was the fastest pitcher in the Rangers system and one of the hardest throwers in the American League. He and Wetteland would warm one another up because no one else was willing to handle their pitches. A torn rotator cuff did him in and while he still throws hard, he is much more hittable. The Rangers included him in the Juan Gonzalez deal and he may end up as a setup man for Todd Jones. Mike Munoz, lefty specialist, age 33Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 4.53 70 0 5 5 1 95 111 7 36 63 .294 .787 Prorated Tex 4.53 37 0 3 3 1 50 58 4 19 33 .294 .787 Actual Tex 3.93 56 0 2 1 1 53 52 5 18 27 .263 .712 I don't think Munoz got enough credit when he was in Colorado. In 1997, he had a 4.53 ERA while pitching at Coors Field. In 239 innings for the Rockies over five plus seasons, he surrendered just 23 home runs. The man can pitch. Oddly, as a guy used primarily to face lefties, he does much better against righthanders. In 1999, he held them to a .235 average compared to a .290 against lefties. Lifetime, he has been slightly better against righthanders. Mike Venafro, setup man, age 25Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Tex 3.29 65 0 3 2 0 68 63 4 22 37 .251 .655 If not for Jeff Zimmerman, Venafro would have been the big story in the Rangers bullpen. Originally drafted in 1995 in the 29th round, Venafro was originially slated for the slow road to the majors. He began as a middle reliever at low A Hudson Valley but showed enough promise that he was turned into a closer for the 1996 season. In two and a half seasons as a minor league closer, Venafro saved 44 games. Venafro is a smart pitcher who was very tough on lefties in 1999. Lefties hit hit just .193 with a .270 OBP and just one extra base hit. Not bad for someone with just 17 innings above AA before 1999. With a year under his belt, Venafro should be even tougher on hitters in 2000. Jeff Zimmerman, setup man, age 26Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 3.27 23 0 2 1 0 33 30 5 12 32 .242 .726 Prorated Tex 3.27 56 0 5 2 0 80 73 12 29 78 .242 .726 Actual Tex 2.36 65 0 9 3 3 88 50 9 23 67 .166 .517 Just in case you didn't hear the story, Zimmerman was pitching independent ball in 1997. Not because he was holding out on a contract (which seems to be the "in" reason to play for an independent league) but because no one would draft him. He faxed his resume to all the teams and the Rangers were the only ones who took a flyer on him. In 1998, he posted a 1.28 ERA in the minors. By 1999, he was in the Rangers bullpen and in July he made the All-Star team after an amazing 0.86 ERA in the first half. He did not allow an earned run in 23 games in June and July. He faded in August and September, allowing a 5.79 ERA and giving up over a hit an inning and surrendering eight of his nine home runs. What is in store for 2000 is a question. Zimmerman has had incredible success in his brief professional career. But his track record is too short to declare him as one of the top relievers for the next decade. John Wetteland, closer, age 32Tm ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tex 2.36 70 0 5 5 40 80 59 8 22 88 .205 .592 Prorated Tex 2.36 62 0 4 4 36 71 53 7 20 79 .205 .592 Actual Tex 3.68 62 0 4 4 43 66 67 9 19 60 .262 .745 Wetteland was a very ordinary pitcher in 1999, a fact that had to be a little disconcerting for the Rangers. They have made no effort to hide the fact that they feel Cordero is the closer of the future and that Wetteland will likely not return after the 2000 season. To his credit, Wetteland has already indicated that he is more than willing to act as a tutor for Cordero and Zimmerman. He worked with Patterson when he first came up and may have the makings of a pitching coach somewhere down the line. Wetteland never showed any indication of being his usual dominant self in 1999. He did not work much in spring because of back spasms and an ankle injury that had nagged at him since the 1998 season. The back spasms continued over the course of the season and may have played a role in the lack of effectiveness. OutlookThe Rangers shook up their roster after the 1999 season, partly because attendance did not meet management's expectations even though the team set a franchise record for wins. The Rangers are fortunate to be in a four-team division with at least one opponent (Anaheim) that is unlikely to contend, so even if they do go through some growing pains with their young talent, they should remain competitive enough to keep people interested. The three main issues the Rangers face from an on-field aspect are the ability of the young players to perform as major league starters, the continued success of the bullpen, and the development of the rotation. Third baseman Mike Lamb and rightfielder Gabe Kapler are going to have the most pressure on them in 2000. Lamb is one of the best prospects in the system and Kapler will have to fill the shoes of Juan Gonzalez. Centerfielder Ruben Mateo will also be tested and will have to stay injury free. The bullpen will have to perform throughout all 162 games. John Wetteland needs to revert to his old form. With the tutelage of Wetteland and an experienced bullpen, prospect Francisco Cordero should develop and improve an already incredible relief corps. Zimmerman will need to establish that his career has not been a fluke to this point and that he is a dominating pitcher. In the rotation, new lefties Kenny Rogers, Darren Oliver, and Justin Thompson will join Sele and Helling to give the Rangers an experienced and, hopefully, injury-free staff until some of the arms in the minors develop. The Rangers should be able to both rebuild and contend in 2000. With the mix of talent they have plus the weak division, another AL West title is likely in store. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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