Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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Baseball Articles | 1999
Post-Season Reviews
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1999 Post-Season Review -- Toronto Blue Jays By Tom Tippett This article takes a look at how the Toronto Blue Jays did in the 1999 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page called 1999 Team-by-Team Performance Reviews. Capsule SummaryProjected Actual Runs for 821 883 Runs allowed 853 862 Run Margin -32 +21 Wins 78 84 Pythagorean wins 78 83 Placement 4th 3rd A year ago, some experts felt the Jays could grab the wildcard if several of their young hitters (Delgado, Stewart, Green) and hurlers (Carpenter, Escobar, Halladay) blossomed all at once. The team was coming off an 88-win season that saw them fall only four games shy of the Red Sox, and it stood to reason that they could be even better in 1999. Nevertheless, the consensus was that Toronto was still a year or two away, and our computer simulations supported that view. As it turned out, the young hitters did indeed come through in a big way, and when they managed to steal Tony Batista from the Diamondbacks, the offense got even better, rising to fifth in the league in scoring. The young pitchers had respectable seasons as well, but they didn't get enough help from the older members (Wells, Hentgen, and Hamilton) of a staff that wound up ninth in team ERA. After a 19-7 spurt in July put them in the thick of the wildcard race, a disappointing stretch run (26-30 in the last two months) left them in third place, ten games short of a post-season berth. Key Position PlayersToronto was last in scoring in the AL in 1997, moved up to 8th in 1998, and rose another three places to 5th in 1999. The offense was built around two great young hitters, Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green, who combined for 86 homers and 257 RBI. Those two got plenty of help from every position except DH and CF. Darrin Fletcher had a bunch of career highs, Homer Bush batted .320 in his first full season, Tony Fernandez flirted with .400 for three months, Tony Batista clubbed 26 homers after being acquired to replace the injured Alex Gonzalez, and Shannon Stewart had another solid year. Darrin Fletcher, c, age 32 (as of July 1, 1999)AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 376 101 21 1 12 38 53 5 22 5 38 0 0 .269 .314 .426 .739 47 Prorated Tor 411 110 23 1 13 41 58 5 24 5 41 0 0 .268 .312 .423 .736 51 Actual Tor 412 120 26 0 18 48 80 6 26 0 47 0 0 .291 .339 .485 .825 64 These were career bests in batting average, doubles, homers, runs and RBI. Some that is due to the fact that he played more in 1999 than in any prior year (despite an orbital bone fracture that cost him the month of of May), but his rate of production was up, too. Fletcher's batting average splits (.228 vs lefties, .306 vs righties) suggest a platoon role, but his on-base and slugging averages were actually higher against LHP, and that allowed the Jays to use him as the everyday catcher. Mike Matheny, c, age 28AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 70 15 3 0 1 6 7 1 3 0 15 0 0 .214 .257 .300 .557 5 Prorated Tor 167 35 7 0 2 14 16 2 7 0 35 0 0 .210 .250 .287 .537 11 Actual Tor 163 35 6 0 3 16 17 1 12 0 37 0 0 .215 .271 .307 .578 14 Matheny has never reached the .250 mark in his 6-year career, and his walk rate and power aren't anything special, either. Behind the plate, he doesn't throw all that well. Having acquired Alberto Castillo in the Pat Hentgen trade, the Jays didn't see any reason to keep him around. He'll be in camp with the Cardinals, but it's not clear how much longer he'll be able to hold onto a big-league job. Carlos Delgado, 1b, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 559 158 44 1 38 96 115 11 72 11 142 1 1 .283 .372 .569 .941 122 Prorated Tor 587 166 46 1 39 100 120 11 75 11 149 1 1 .283 .371 .564 .935 126 Actual Tor 573 156 39 0 44 113 134 15 86 7 141 1 1 .272 .377 .571 .948 128 A terrific season that was right in line with our projections. His runs and RBI were career bests, thanks to a better group of hitters around him, but he actually fell a little short of his 1998 production. Finding it impossible to come up with enough money to pay both Shawn Green and Delgado, the Jays chose to deal Green to the Dodgers, then signed Delgado to a big three-year contract. They're saying he'll be the first baseman despite the presence of a better defender in David Segui. David Segui, 1b, age 32AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Sea 569 162 35 1 22 86 84 0 59 7 82 2 1 .285 .348 .466 .814 93 Prorated Sea 342 97 21 0 13 51 50 0 35 4 49 1 0 .284 .346 .459 .806 55 Actual Sea 345 101 22 3 9 43 39 1 32 4 43 1 2 .293 .352 .452 .804 53 Prorated Tor 93 26 5 0 3 14 13 0 9 1 13 0 0 .280 .340 .430 .770 14 Actual Tor 95 30 5 0 5 14 13 0 8 0 17 0 0 .316 .365 .526 .892 19 Prorated Tot 435 123 26 0 16 65 64 0 45 5 62 1 0 .283 .346 .453 .799 69 Actual Tot 440 131 27 3 14 57 52 1 40 4 60 1 2 .298 .355 .468 .823 72 Segui has been very consistent for the past five years, giving four different teams a good batting average, decent walk rate, moderate power, and sure-handed defense. Most reports indicate that the Jays didn't really want him back for 2000. They offered him arbitration, gambling that he'd be signed as a free agent somewhere and they'd get draft compensation in return. But the market wasn't there (the Mets, for example, opted to replace John Olerud with Todd Zeile), and Segui accepted the arbitration offer and remained with the Jays. Given this turn of events, plus Delgado's presence, it won't be a surprise if Segui is dealt before opening day. Homer Bush, 2b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 602 156 25 0 6 90 43 3 30 0 133 23 13 .259 .294 .331 .625 59 Prorated Tor 480 124 19 0 4 71 34 2 23 0 106 18 10 .258 .292 .323 .615 45 Actual Tor 485 155 26 4 5 69 55 6 21 0 82 32 8 .320 .353 .421 .774 74 Bush's 1999 OPS was right around the AL average for second basemen. Given that he's also a very good fielder, bunter and baserunner, and that he's young enough to have his best years ahead of him, the Jays rewarded him with a nice three-year contract after the season. Interestingly, his career average is now .328 in 567 major-league atbats, and that's quite a bit better than the level he established in AA and AAA. Is he one of the few guys who hits better in the big leagues, or will Bush come back to earth a bit? The 2000 season should go a long way toward answering this question. Pat Kelly, 2b, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection StL 67 14 3 0 2 10 6 1 6 0 17 3 1 .209 .284 .343 .627 7 Prorated Tor 116 24 5 0 3 17 10 1 10 0 29 5 1 .207 .276 .328 .603 11 Actual Tor 116 31 7 0 6 17 20 0 10 0 23 0 1 .267 .318 .483 .801 18 Kelly lost the prime of his career to a series of injuries. He's been healthy for a couple of years now, but he hasn't been given a lot of playing time. He contributed nicely in 1999, but had nowhere to go on a team with Bush, Alex Gonzalez, and Tony Batista ahead of him. So he's now one of several 2Bs the Angels are looking at this spring. Craig Grebeck, 2b, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 66 16 4 0 0 6 5 1 6 0 8 0 0 .242 .315 .303 .618 6 Prorated Tor 118 28 7 0 0 10 9 1 10 0 14 0 0 .237 .302 .297 .599 11 Actual Tor 113 41 7 0 0 18 10 2 15 0 13 0 0 .363 .443 .425 .868 23 Grebeck has been a super sub for years, able to play terrific defense at second and other infield positions, but contributing little with the bat most of the time. This was an exception, as his bat came alive in a limited role but his defense wasn't up to his usual standards. A foot injury bothered him for most of the year and put him on the DL for almost half the season. If he's healthy in 2000, his defensive range might return, and his 1999 batting average might earn him another shot at a utility role. Tony Fernandez, 3b, age 36AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 204 61 13 1 4 29 27 3 15 1 22 4 3 .299 .353 .431 .784 30 Prorated Tor 519 155 33 2 10 73 68 7 38 2 56 10 7 .299 .351 .428 .779 77 Actual Tor 485 159 41 0 6 73 75 10 77 11 62 6 7 .328 .427 .449 .877 97 Fernandez took a serious run at batting .400 for the first half of the season, then faded in the second half. Once a top defensive shortstop, Fernandez is now well below average in the field, and the Jays chose not to bring him back. If Alex Gonzalez is healthy, the 3B job is expected to go to Tony Batista in 2000. Fernandez is on track to play in Japan this year. Willis Otanez, 3b, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Bal 94 23 4 0 5 13 13 1 6 1 19 0 0 .245 .294 .447 .741 12 Prorated Bal 82 20 3 0 4 11 11 0 5 0 16 0 0 .244 .287 .427 .714 10 Actual Bal 80 17 3 0 2 7 11 1 6 0 16 0 0 .213 .273 .325 .598 7 Prorated Tor 126 30 5 0 6 17 17 1 8 1 25 0 0 .238 .287 .421 .707 15 Actual Tor 127 32 8 0 5 21 13 1 9 0 30 0 0 .252 .307 .433 .740 16 Prorated Tot 208 50 8 0 11 28 28 2 13 2 42 0 0 .240 .289 .438 .726 26 Actual Tot 207 49 11 0 7 28 24 2 15 0 46 0 0 .237 .293 .391 .685 23 A defensive liability whose bat (24 HR at AAA Rochester in 1998) has given him a shot, Otanez hasn't produced enough in the majors to earn a regular job. The Orioles had seen enough, waiving him in June, and he didn't do enough with the Jays to move to the top of their depth chart, either. Alex Gonzalez, ss, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 546 130 28 2 14 65 51 6 33 1 120 18 6 .238 .287 .374 .661 58 Prorated Tor 157 37 8 0 4 18 14 1 9 0 34 5 1 .236 .281 .363 .644 16 Actual Tor 154 45 13 0 2 22 12 3 16 0 23 4 2 .292 .370 .416 .786 24 A long time ago (1994), in a place far away (Syracuse), Gonzalez hit .284/.361/.435 as a 21-year-old in his first crack at AAA, earning recognition as one of the top SS prospects in the game. From 1995-98, as the Jays everyday shortstop, Gonzalez maxed out at a .239 average, exhibited a terrible K/BB ratio, and produced only a modest amount of power (peaking at 14 homers in 1996). His 1999 start was the first time he's showed anything like what he did in the minors, but a shoulder injury ended his season in May, and we didn't get a chance to find out if this was just a little hot streak or a sign that he's ready to put it all together. Tony Batista, ss, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 552 145 30 3 24 82 71 5 40 0 100 5 4 .263 .316 .458 .774 77 Prorated Ari 149 39 8 0 6 22 19 1 10 0 27 1 1 .262 .311 .436 .747 19 Actual Ari 144 37 5 0 5 16 21 2 16 3 17 2 0 .257 .335 .396 .731 21 Prorated Tor 373 98 20 2 16 55 48 3 27 0 67 3 2 .263 .315 .456 .771 51 Actual Tor 375 107 25 1 26 61 79 4 22 1 79 2 0 .285 .328 .565 .893 67 Prorated Tot 523 137 28 2 22 77 67 4 37 0 94 4 3 .262 .313 .449 .763 70 Actual Tot 519 144 30 1 31 77 100 6 38 4 96 4 0 .277 .330 .518 .848 88 In our review of the Diamondbacks, Sherri Nichols asked why anyone would trade a guy like Batista (18 HR in 283 atbats in 1998) for an aging lefty reliever (Dan Plesac 37 years old). I spent much of the summer wondering the same thing as I watched Batista maintain the blistering homer pace he set the year before. Even though his average and power held steady, I'm a little concerned about his deteriorating BB/K ratio late in the season (9 walks, 51 strikeouts after August 1). Shannon Stewart, lf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 616 172 36 6 12 104 67 14 75 2 87 50 18 .279 .369 .416 .785 102 Prorated Tor 589 164 34 5 11 99 64 13 71 1 83 47 17 .278 .368 .409 .777 96 Actual Tor 608 185 28 2 11 102 67 8 59 0 83 37 14 .304 .371 .411 .782 96 Not a star, at least not yet, but a very handy guy to have around. His on-base percentage and speed make him a solid leadoff hitter, and he has enough range to play center. Because of a past football-related shoulder injury, I've seen reports that question his ability to throw, but there's no statistical evidence that opposing runners have been taking extra bases on him, so he must be compensating with the ability to reach the ball and get into throwing position quickly. Geronimo Berroa, lf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 223 57 11 1 8 31 30 2 26 1 50 0 1 .256 .336 .422 .757 31 Prorated Tor 64 16 3 0 2 8 8 0 7 0 14 0 0 .250 .324 .391 .715 8 Actual Tor 62 12 3 0 1 11 6 2 9 0 15 0 0 .194 .315 .290 .605 5 He's had two bad seasons in a row, and he can't really play defense any more, so I'm not surprised that the Jays released him at the trading deadline. The Dodgers have invited him to spring training, so he'll get another chance to show that he's still got the swing that produced 62 homers in 1996-97. Jacob Brumfield, lf, age 34AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual LA 17 5 0 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 .294 .294 .412 .706 2 Actual Tor 170 40 8 3 2 25 19 0 19 0 39 1 2 .235 .307 .353 .660 19 Actual Tot 187 45 8 4 2 29 20 0 19 0 44 1 2 .241 .306 .358 .665 21 For a while, the Jays were playing Brumfield ahead of Stewart, and I never understood why. For the past two seasons, Brumfield has been in a reserve role, as he should be. Jose Cruz Jr., cf, age 25AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 576 145 32 4 26 94 85 0 80 3 147 15 4 .252 .340 .457 .797 96 Prorated Tor 360 90 20 2 16 58 53 0 50 1 91 9 2 .250 .339 .450 .789 59 Actual Tor 349 84 19 3 14 63 45 0 64 5 91 14 4 .241 .358 .433 .791 58 Cruz made a big splash when he cranked out 26 homers in only 395 atbats in his 1997 debut, and Seattle fans were outraged when he was dealt to Toronto for a couple of relief pitchers during that rookie season. Even then, however, there were signs of big holes in his swing, and Cruz has found himself in AAA for parts of the past two seasons. But his walk-strikeout ratio improved significantly in 1999, and he may finally be ready to hold down a regular job in the big leagues starting in 2000. But with outfield competition from Vernon Wells, Raul Mondesi, and Stewart, there's no guarantee that Cruz will be in the lineup on opening day, assuming nobody is traded between now and then. Vernon Wells, cf, age 20AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Tor 88 23 5 0 1 8 8 0 4 0 18 1 1 .261 .293 .352 .646 7 Wells rocketed through the minor-league ranks last year. He began by averaging .343 and slugging .543 in a half-season of A ball, then put up similar numbers at AA Knoxville. The organization needed only 106 atbats at that level to decide that he was ready for the next step, and when Wells batted .310 and slugged .481 in 33 games at AAA Syracuse, he climbed to the top rung and finished the year as the Jays center fielder. That last step may have been one too many for one season, but he wasn't totally overmatched in the big leagues either, and he's in the running for the starting CF job in 2000. It won't surprise me if the club decides to go with Cruz to start the season and give Wells a chance to consolidate his gains at AAA. Either way, you've got to be impressed with how far Wells has come in a short time. Brian McRae, cf, age 31AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection NYN 525 129 31 5 15 75 55 6 66 3 79 18 9 .246 .334 .410 .744 75 Prorated NYN 299 73 17 2 8 42 31 3 37 1 44 10 5 .244 .331 .395 .726 41 Actual NYN 298 66 12 1 8 35 36 5 39 1 57 2 6 .221 .320 .349 .669 33 Prorated Col 23 5 1 0 0 3 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .217 .280 .261 .541 2 Actual Col 23 6 2 0 1 1 1 2 2 0 7 0 0 .261 .370 .478 .849 4 Prorated Tor 87 21 5 0 2 12 9 1 11 0 13 3 1 .241 .333 .368 .701 11 Actual Tor 82 16 3 1 3 11 11 2 16 1 22 0 1 .195 .340 .366 .706 11 Prorated Tot 410 100 24 3 11 58 42 4 51 2 61 14 7 .244 .331 .398 .729 56 Actual Tot 403 88 17 2 12 47 48 9 57 2 86 2 7 .218 .327 .360 .687 48 McRae battled a knee injury all year, and it showed. After a career year in 1998 (a .360 OBP, 21 homers, 62 extra-base hits), McRae's offensive production dropped below his career averages. His running and defense suffered even more than that, and he wasn't playing much by the end of the year. Shawn Green, rf, age 26AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 588 168 33 4 30 93 87 5 46 3 125 25 7 .286 .341 .509 .850 105 Prorated Tor 636 181 35 4 32 100 94 5 49 3 135 27 7 .285 .339 .503 .842 111 Actual Tor 614 190 45 0 42 134 123 11 66 4 117 20 7 .309 .384 .588 .972 140 After leaping from 16 homers in 1997 to 35 in 1998, Green took another step up last year, adding 31 batting average points, increasing his walk rate, and tossing in another 15 extra-base hits for good measure. Toronto fans waited a long time for this, but they won't get to see Green in his prime except by satellite. Finding it impossible to keep both Delgado and Green on a club with gate receipts and local TV revenues denominated in Canadian dollars that seem to be worth less every time you turn around, the Jays traded Green to the Dodgers for Raul Mondesi and Pedro Borbon. They'll miss him. Willie Greene, dh/3b/rf, age 27AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 358 89 16 1 16 55 59 1 53 3 85 4 1 .249 .345 .433 .778 56 Prorated Tor 213 53 9 0 9 32 35 0 31 1 50 2 0 .249 .343 .418 .761 32 Actual Tor 226 46 7 0 12 22 41 0 20 0 56 0 0 .204 .266 .394 .660 24 This was Greene's first disappointing season since he started getting a meaningful amount of playing time in 1996. In the past, he'd always posted an interesting combination of high OBPs and good power along with his sub-.260 batting average, but this time he didn't walk enough or provide enough pop. He's in camp with the Cubs, competing for the 3B job with Shane Andrews and Cole Liniak, and early indications are that he may not make the opening day roster. Dave Hollins, dh, age 33AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 441 110 20 2 10 70 53 8 54 3 91 10 4 .249 .340 .372 .712 59 Prorated Tor 90 22 4 0 2 14 10 1 11 0 18 2 0 .244 .333 .356 .689 11 Actual Tor 99 22 5 0 2 12 6 0 5 0 22 0 0 .222 .260 .333 .593 8 About a week before opening day, the Angels traded Hollins to Toronto for reserve infielder Tomas Perez. At the time, I thought Anaheim should have been able to get more for Hollins. But Perez didn't play in the majors last year and Hollins did nothing as the Toronto DH, so maybe it was a fair trade after all. Kevin Witt, dh, age 23AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Tor 68 16 3 0 3 9 9 1 5 1 17 0 0 .235 .293 .412 .705 8 Prorated Tor 33 7 1 0 1 4 4 0 2 0 8 0 0 .212 .257 .333 .590 3 Actual Tor 34 7 1 0 1 3 5 0 2 0 9 0 0 .206 .250 .324 .574 3 Witt has shown that he can hit AA and AAA pitching (hitting in the .270s with a good on-base percentage and 25-30 homerun power), and perhaps it's time for the Jays to find out whether he can approach that level in the bigs. It's unlikely that he'd be any worse that the DHs the team used in 1999. Key PitchersAs a group, the Blue Jays staff produced results that were right in line with our projections, and individually, there were only a few surprises. Chris Carpenter and Billy Koch were better then projected, while Joey Hamilton and Kelvim Escobar were disappointments. A pretty solid effort from the relief corps was another plus, though this was not unexpected. David Wells, starter, age 36 (as of July 1, 1999)ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 4.19 32 32 12 12 0 217 223 30 41 152 .266 .739 Prorated Tor 4.19 35 35 13 13 0 239 246 33 45 167 .266 .739 Actual Tor 4.82 34 34 17 10 0 232 246 32 62 169 .271 .758 Wells seemed very disheartened by the Roger Clemens trade that saw him move (along with Graeme Lloyd and Homer Bush) from his beloved Yankees, the defending world champs, to the middle-of-the-pack Jays. He struggled early, posting a 6.30 average and walking almost as many men (27) in the first two months as he did (29) in the entire 1998 season. But he hung tough, as he usually does, and wound up winning 17 games and matching (except for those early walks) his strong 1998 performance in most respects. And he's pitched over 200 innings each of the last five years. Pat Hentgen, starter, age 30ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 4.66 32 32 11 11 0 193 206 26 65 114 .275 .775 Prorated Tor 4.66 33 33 11 11 0 202 215 27 68 119 .275 .775 Actual Tor 4.79 34 34 11 12 0 199 225 32 65 118 .286 .812 In 1996, Hentgen pitched 266 innings, finished with a 3.22, and won 20 games and the Cy Young award. In 1997, he pitched 265 innings, finished with a 3.68 ERA, and won 15 games for a team that finished last in the league in offense. That's a very big workload in this day and age, and you have to wonder if it was too big. Hentgen's ERA ballooned to 5.17 in 1998 before recovering a little last year. He was traded to the Cardinals after the season, and I expect he'll be a solid starter for them. Moving to a pitcher's park and a non-DH league should help his numbers, and being another year removed from all those innings might help his arm bounce back a little. Joey Hamilton, starter, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 5.17 32 32 10 13 0 200 224 19 93 123 .287 .808 Prorated Tor 5.17 16 16 5 6 0 98 110 9 46 60 .287 .808 Actual Tor 6.52 22 18 7 8 0 98 118 13 39 56 .298 .843 Once a prized prospect, Hamilton has been in steady decline. His career ERA was right around 3.00 in his first 46 starts (in 1994-95), but he hasn't seen the good side of 4.00 since. His control, which deserted him in 1998 (106 walks), was better last year. But he's not striking out many men any more and he was hit pretty hard when he did throw strikes. Perhaps it was physical -- he felt a twinge in his shoulder in August, then had rotator cuff surgery in September. It would be a huge boost for the team if Hamilton could bounce back in 2000, but that's far from a sure thing. Chris Carpenter, starter, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 4.97 32 32 10 13 0 203 227 24 83 157 .286 .800 Prorated Tor 4.97 24 24 7 10 0 150 168 18 61 116 .286 .800 Actual Tor 4.38 24 24 9 8 0 150 177 16 48 106 .294 .796 One of a posse of young pitchers the Jays are counting on. Carpenter hasn't broken through yet, but many believe he will emerge as a #1 starter. In 1999, he was showing signs of taking a step toward that goal until he began having trouble with his elbow. A flurry of walks (15 in 30 innings) in August was the first sign of a problem. That led to his being removed from the rotation and eventually to mid-September surgery to remove bone spurs and chips from the elbow. Kelvim Escobar, starter, age 23ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 3.86 27 27 9 7 0 163 153 14 74 156 .249 .713 Prorated Tor 3.86 31 31 10 8 0 185 173 16 84 177 .249 .713 Actual Tor 5.69 33 30 14 11 0 174 203 19 81 129 .293 .820 Another hard-throwing youngster, Escobar failed to build on a promising start to his career. Although he was a starter in the minor leagues, he broke in as a closer in 1997, saving 14 games in 17 tries and posting a 2.90 ERA. After he was moved back into the rotation in the second half of 1998, Escobar went 6-2 with a 2.35 ERA in 10 starts. But his control has never been especially good, his fastball stays too straight at times, and he was hit pretty hard last year. If he can get back to where he was, he'll be another important piece of the puzzle for Toronto. Roy Halladay, starter, age 22ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 5.48 4 4 1 2 0 23 26 3 10 13 .286 .821 Prorated Tor 5.48 26 26 6 13 0 148 167 19 64 84 .286 .821 Actual Tor 3.92 36 18 8 7 1 149 156 19 79 82 .270 .788 Halladay reached AAA about the time he turned 20 and pitched well at that level from the beginning. A year and a half later, he took a no-hitter into the 9th inning of his second major league outing. It's not hard to see why he's regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Having said that, you are hereby warned that Halladay's 3.92 ERA last year is a tad misleading. He put 235 runners on base by hit or walk in 149 innings, gave up homers at a pretty good clip, and barely struck out more men than he walked. Normally those stats add up to an ERA in the low 5's, so he could improve quite a bit in 2000 and still post an ERA higher than his 1999 figure. Peter Munro, long reliever, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 6.52 30 0 2 3 0 39 51 6 17 29 .321 .907 Prorated Tor 6.52 42 0 3 4 0 54 71 8 24 40 .321 .907 Actual Tor 6.02 31 2 0 2 0 55 70 6 23 38 .318 .859 Primarily a starter in the minors, Munro was given a chance to get his feet wet in long relief. Drafted by the Red Sox and traded to the Jays in 1999 (in the Mike Stanley deal), Munro has been good but not great in his minor-league career. Hence the mediocre projection and the mediocre performance. Tom Davey, long reliever, age 25ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 6.24 40 0 2 3 0 49 63 6 35 41 .317 .918 Prorated Tor 6.24 33 0 2 2 0 40 52 5 29 34 .317 .918 Actual Tor 4.70 29 0 1 1 1 44 40 5 26 42 .241 .760 Prorated Sea 6.24 17 0 1 1 0 20 26 3 15 17 .317 .918 Actual Sea 4.71 16 0 1 0 0 21 22 0 14 17 .268 .741 Prorated Tot 6.24 50 0 2 4 0 61 78 7 43 51 .317 .918 Actual Tot 4.71 45 0 2 1 1 65 62 5 40 59 .250 .754 Despite control problems, Davey did a respectable job in long relief before he was traded to Seattle (along with Steve Sinclair) in the deal that brought David Segui to the Jays. Paul Quantrill, middle reliever, age 30ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 4.50 40 0 2 2 0 42 49 4 11 28 .295 .768 Prorated Tor 4.50 47 0 2 2 0 49 58 5 13 33 .295 .768 Actual Tor 3.33 41 0 3 2 0 49 53 5 17 28 .282 .771 For the third year in a row, Quantrill has (a) allowed more than a hit per inning, (b) shown very good control, (c) struggled in save situations, with 15 saves in 41 opportunities in his career and 0 for 4 in 1999, and (d) finished with an ERA that is well below the norm for the hits and walks he allows. As you can see, his performance was right in line with his projection, and a performance like this normally produces an ERA in the mid-4's. I'm at a loss to explain this. If it's not luck, and Quantrill has a special ability to work out of jams, why has he struggled so much in save situations? I suspect his low ERAs reflect some good fortune and a little help from his friends in the Jays pen. Paul Spoljaric, starter/reliever, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 4.43 32 32 11 11 0 200 189 24 98 211 .249 .762 Prorated Phi 4.43 5 2 1 1 0 15 14 2 7 15 .249 .762 Actual Phi 15.09 5 3 0 3 0 11 23 1 7 10 .426 1.103 Prorated Tor 4.43 21 8 3 3 0 64 61 8 32 68 .249 .762 Actual Tor 4.65 37 2 2 2 0 62 62 9 32 63 .258 .822 Prorated Tot 4.43 26 10 4 4 0 79 75 10 39 83 .249 .762 Actual Tot 6.26 42 5 2 5 0 73 85 10 39 73 .289 .874 In 1996-97, Spoljaric was a decent lefty reliever in the Toronto bullpen. Traded to Seattle in 1997 (in the Jose Cruz deal), Spoljaric came down with a serious case of Mariner-bullpen-itis, or whatever it is that afflicts anyone in Lou Piniella's pen, and saw his ERA soar to 6.48 in 1998. Inspired by this performance, the Phillies traded for Spoljaric and immediately tabbed him for a spot in their rotation. After three dreadful starts, he was sent back to the familiar surroundings of the Toronto bullpen, where he was right in line with his projections. There's no place like home. Dan Plesac, lefty specialist, age 37ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 3.40 70 0 3 2 8 50 47 6 16 56 .247 .711 Prorated Tor 3.40 35 0 1 1 4 25 23 3 8 28 .247 .711 Actual Tor 8.34 30 0 0 3 0 23 28 4 9 26 .308 .872 Prorated Ari 3.40 31 0 1 1 4 23 21 3 7 25 .247 .711 Actual Ari 3.32 34 0 2 1 1 22 22 3 8 27 .259 .746 Prorated Tot 3.40 66 0 3 2 8 47 44 6 15 53 .247 .711 Actual Tot 5.89 64 0 2 4 1 44 50 7 17 53 .284 .811 Without a doubt, Plesac has to be considered one of the top candidates for the Jays MVP award. Not because of his performance on the field -- even though he wasn't nearly as bad as his 8.34 ERA suggests -- but because the Diamondbacks wanted him badly enough to give Toronto two players (Tony Batista and John Frascatore) who helped the Jays a great deal. Plesac was reasonably effective for Arizona, and you can't argue with what they achieved in the second half, but those 22 innings were awfully expensive. Graeme Lloyd, setup man, age 32ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 3.00 53 0 2 1 0 39 36 4 10 20 .247 .674 Prorated Tor 3.00 100 0 4 2 0 74 68 8 19 38 .247 .674 Actual Tor 3.63 74 0 5 3 3 72 68 11 23 47 .250 .739 Another good year from this veteran left-hander. He has always been effective against both righties and lefties, and was actually a little better against RHB in 1999, so he's considerably more valuable than your average lefty specialist. I'm just not sure he's as valuable as the Expos think he is, having just given him a 3-year $9m contract. John Frascatore, setup man, age 29ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 4.04 70 0 5 5 2 98 101 10 37 57 .269 .753 Prorated Ari 4.04 23 0 2 2 1 32 33 3 12 18 .269 .753 Actual Ari 4.09 26 0 1 4 0 33 31 6 12 15 .256 .814 Prorated Tor 4.04 27 0 2 2 1 38 39 4 14 22 .269 .753 Actual Tor 3.41 33 0 7 1 1 37 42 5 9 22 .292 .799 Prorated Tot 4.04 50 0 4 4 1 69 71 7 26 40 .269 .753 Actual Tot 3.73 59 0 8 5 1 70 73 11 21 37 .275 .805 If the Jays had traded Plesac for Frascatore straight up, leaving Batista out of the deal altogether, I'd still think Toronto got the better of the deal, if only because of the 8-year age difference. For the past three years, the right-handed Frascatore has pitched pretty well and averaged about 80 innings per season without breaking down, and he's had better results against lefties than righties. Billy Koch, closer, age 24ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Tor 3.39 56 0 0 5 31 64 55 5 30 57 .235 .679 We didn't generate a projection for Koch because his career through 1998 was spent in the low minors except for two AAA starts in which he allowed 14 baserunners in 5-2/3 innings. Used strictly as a starter in the minors, Koch made a very smooth transition to the closer role, blowing only four saves in 35 chances. Now that Koch has had one good season as the closer, it looks as if the team will be leave him in that role. But wouldn't they be better off giving him a shot at the rotation so he could take the mound for 200 innings a year instead of 60? Perhaps not, if they're worried about his ability to sustain a starter's workload after his 1997 reconstructive ligament surgery. Robert Person, closer/starter, age 30ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Tor 5.22 70 0 2 7 16 69 73 14 37 56 .271 .863 Prorated Tor 5.22 13 0 0 1 3 13 14 3 7 11 .271 .863 Actual Tor 9.82 11 0 0 2 2 11 9 1 15 12 .231 .877 Prorated Phi 5.22 4 13 30 131 139 27 70 106 .271 .863 Actual Phi 4.27 31 22 10 5 0 137 130 23 70 127 .252 .801 Prorated Tot 5.22 4 15 33 144 153 29 77 117 .271 .863 Actual Tot 4.68 42 22 10 7 2 148 139 24 85 139 .250 .809 In late 1998, Person saved six games in eight tries, so he entered 1999 as the closer designate. Thanks to Person's inability to find the strike zone, he was quickly removed from that role and then dealt to Philadelphia, where he pitched much more effectively as a starter. OutlookThe offense should continue to be a plus, even though the Jays gave up more than they got in the Shawn Green for Raul Mondesi trade, both offensively and defensively. It's possible that Fletcher and Bush may not reach their 1999 levels, but they'll have Batista for the entire season, Alex Gonzalez and Jose Cruz might be ready to bust out, and they should be much better at DH. I think the big question is whether Carpenter, Escobar, Halladay and Koch are ready to lead this team to the promised land. (By the way, I don't mean to downplay the role of David Wells, whom I regard as the #1 starter on this team). As I mulled this over, I decided to go looking for other teams that got a lot of wins out of pitchers who were 25 or younger. Since 1901, ten teams have received 68 or more wins from young pitchers. The leaders were the 1915-16 Red Sox, who got 74 and 75 young-pitcher wins from guys like Babe Ruth, Ernie Shore, Dutch Leonard and Carl Mays. The 1961 Indians were next with 73 wins from eight youngsters, most notably Mudcat Grant, Gary Bell and Jim Perry. Led by Fergie Jenkins, and aided by Joe Niekro and Ken Holtzman, the 1967 Cubs had 72 wins from their kids. That figure was matched by the 1986 Mets of Dwight Gooden, Sid Fernandez, Ron Darling, Roger McDowell, and Rick Aguilera. Among the five teams with 68 wins were the 1991 Braves of Tom Glavine, Steve Avery, and John Smoltz. I also searched for teams with three or more 12-game winners who were 25 or under. In the past 100 years, four teams had four 12-game winners -- the aforementioned 1915-16 Red Sox and 1986 Mets plus the 1968 Athletics. Thirty-five other teams had three young 12-game winners. Among the more recent examples are: Team Pitchers Team finish -------------- ------------------------------- -------------- 1993 White Sox JBere, WAlvarez, AFernandez 1st, lost ALCS 1990 White Sox JMcDowell, GHibbard, MPerez 2nd 1988 Mets DCone, DGooden, SFernandez 1st, lost NLCS 1985 Royals BSaberhagen, DJackson, MGubicza 1st, won WS 1985 Angels MWitt, RRomanick, KMcCaskill 2nd 1982 Expos SSanderson, CLea, TGullickson 3rd 1978 Brewers LSorensen, JAugustine, BTravers 3rd By the way, three of the four teams with four 12-game winners finished 1st, with the 1968 Oakland squad coming in sixth. What does this mean? Well, it's certainly not the norm for a team to have several young pitchers come through in a single season, but it's not all that rare either. And having three successful young starters is no guarantee that (a) the team will go the distance that season or (b) the staff will stay together and form the nucleus of a dynasty. I won't be shocked if Toronto is a serious contender this year. But I think it would be most unfair to expect these young pitchers to carry the team. If the Jays are to win anything this year, they'll need at least two of the young starters to take another step forward, plus a solid campaign from David Wells, a turnaround from Joey Hamilton, a focused and team-oriented Raul Mondesi, and continued development from their young hitters. It could happen. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000. Diamond Mind,
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